Rookie Playing Time in McDermott Era

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Damn you have unrealistic expectations.

 

The vast majority of RB's drafted in the 3rd round never become consistent starters.  Singletary was but in your world - "Bills FAILURE.  Every 3rd round pick we draft should be major contributors and not be replaceable."

 

You've already determined Williams and Bernard aren't NFL caliber?  

 

Below is the percentage by round of having a consistent starter.  

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

 

I know he doesn’t have breakaway speed, but Singletary can make guys miss and has a career 4.7 YPC. That ain’t too shabby and I don’t think he got enough credit during his time here. 

[Nextmanup]

11 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. 

This statement is FAR too broad to reflect the data you have presented here.

 

Define "rookie" (what round?); define "use" (what in the world does that mean? 1 play = used); what the hell is a "meaningful role" ???

 

Your data shows a guy like Epenesa, a highly touted, well received SECOND ROUNDER played a mere 27% of the time in his rookie season.  That goes directly against your conclusion, for example.

 

I'm guessing there is some serious confirmation bias going on here; you wanted to believe the notion that McDermott won't use rookies is false, you dug up the data, and you interpreted it to suit your liking with quite a few subjective opinions along the way. 

That isn't how statistics works.

 

 

[Dopey]

5 hours ago, BananaB said:

While trying to prove one point you ignored another point. Seems like over the past few years the players are getting less time. Which is what most are saying. The players that started more early in McDs tenure had to start because they were basically rebuilding. We got alot out of those guys, they are the backbone of the team right now. Which proves getting them on the field helps their progression Lately guys are not getting on the field as much and there is alot of frustration with why we picked these guys because they ain’t helping the team. Especially with the high picks

It's harder for a rookie to get a lot of playing time when the team that drafted him is pretty stacked with good, veteran players. I'm glad we're to the point where we don't have to count on rookies like we used to. Based on our success over the past few seasons, he knows what he's doing.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

12 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round:

 

First Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

T. White                     1,093                  99%

J. Allen                          719                  68%

T. Edmunds                  926                  91%

E. Oliver                        556                  54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%)

G. Rousseau                 531                  49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%)

K. Elam                         477                  45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson)

 

2nd Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

Z. Jones                      792                    75%

D. Dawkins                  781                    74%

C. Ford                        739                    69%  (5th on OL)

A. Epenesa                 291                     27%

B. Basham                   201                    19%

J. Cook                        269                    25%

 

3rd Round

Player                           # Snaps             % Snaps

H. Phillips                    389                    38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star)

D. Singletary               530                     50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%)

D. Knox                        646                     60% (more than double any TE)

Z. Moss                        403                     37% (2nd to Singletary)

S. Brown                       726                     61%

T. Bernard                    110                       11%

 

4th Round

Player                             # Snaps               % Snaps

T. Johnson                    405                    40% (only behind White and Wallace)

G. Davis                         797                     73%

 

Notables - Rounds 5-7

Matt Milano  (5th) played 41% of snaps but started last half of season

Wyatt Teller (5th) played 45% of snaps and had 3rd highest # for guards

Darryl Johnson (7th) played 22% of snaps

Tyler Bass (6th) has been their kicker since his rookie year

Dane Jackson (7th) played 18% of snaps

Christian Benford (6tth) played 34% of snaps despite his injuries 

 

Conclusions:

• First rounders have all started their rookie year with Elam the only one that was a part time starter.
• 2nd rounders have played less as the team has gotten better.
• Bernard has been the only 3rd rounder who did not get significant playing time as a rookie. The 3rd round has been pretty good for them. 
• Beane likes to trade his 4th round picks but given the success of Davis and Johnson maybe he should hang onto them more often.
• Rounds 5-7 you don't expect contributions right away but it seems just about every year they find someone who can get on the field.
• Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies.                 

 

This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. 

 

 

 

What wouldbe interesting to know too is how these numbers compare against league averages.  My guess is you'd find pretty similar results.  As stated better teams will likely play less rookies.

 

 

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

My concern with Elam is the fact that McDermott usually does start his first round rookies their rookie season.  The fact that he was benched for the corpse of Xavier Rhodes against the Pats last year was concerning.  The fact that a fifth round rookie the same year split time with him last year is concerning.  That he's not the clear cut starting CB opposite Tre White going into this year is concerning.  If you can't tell I'm concerned.

 

To me it looks like they drafted Elam based on physical traits and the little bit I've read recently sounds like coverage wise, he's like glue.  But he may be taking longer than expected to absorb, understand, and put into action all the mental parts of the game so that is what has been holding him back.  Could be too early last year he really struggled in these areas.  

 

Benford may be the opposite, doesn't have near the skill set of Elam but relies on instincts and is going to be steady, may not make the great play, but won't make the big mistake either.

 

Jackson is maybe also more like Benford, doesn't have the physical still set, but also has 4 years under his belt so again even less likely to make the big mistake.

 

Could be that McD feels there's enough talent out there surrounding the CB2 spot so doesn't need spectacular play there but is more worried about mistakes and big plays.  Does sound too like Elam's closing the gap.  Not too concerned with Benford playing more on Sunday either.

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

This statement is FAR too broad to reflect the data you have presented here.

 

Define "rookie" (what round?); define "use" (what in the world does that mean? 1 play = used); what the hell is a "meaningful role" ???

 

Your data shows a guy like Epenesa, a highly touted, well received SECOND ROUNDER played a mere 27% of the time in his rookie season.  That goes directly against your conclusion, for example.

 

I'm guessing there is some serious confirmation bias going on here; you wanted to believe the notion that McDermott won't use rookies is false, you dug up the data, and you interpreted it to suit your liking with quite a few subjective opinions along the way. 

That isn't how statistics works.

 

 

 

Define rookie?  A guy in his first year.  There is a concrete definition.  

 

Define use?  How much they are playing and top round rookies generally play.  AJ Epenesa doesn't make your point strong unless you are saying that McDermott doesn't play 100% of top round rookies much.  

 

And no, the data is not manipulated or slanted.  Those are concrete numbers.

 

You are also forgetting that we've been drafting in the early to late 20's the last few years.  We aren't getting the top end talent in these drafts.  

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Define rookie?  A guy in his first year.  There is a concrete definition.  

 

Define use?  How much they are playing and top round rookies generally play.  AJ Epenesa doesn't make your point strong unless you are saying that McDermott doesn't play 100% of top round rookies much.  

 

And no, the data is not manipulated or slanted.  Those are concrete numbers.

 

You are also forgetting that we've been drafting in the early to late 20's the last few years.  We aren't getting the top end talent in these drafts.  

Imo they would be more instructive if compared to the rest of the league

 

Elam and McDuffie for example are reasonable comps and he played basically 100% defense snaps when healthy

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Imo they would be more instructive if compared to the rest of the league

 

Elam and McDuffie for example are reasonable comps and he played basically 100% defense snaps when healthy

 

Rest of the league and separated by where they were drafted.  It wouldn't be fair to compare teams drafting between 20-32 every year with teams that draft in the top 10 consistently.  

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Rest of the league and separated by where they were drafted.  It wouldn't be fair to compare teams drafting between 20-32 every year with teams that draft in the top 10 consistently.  

No doubt that's why McDuffie was the one I thought of

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I suspect that at the whiteboard and in the film room, Peterman is unmatched.  He's still in the league, you know. 2 seasons with the Raiders, now in his 2nd season with the Bears.  I call what Peterman must have, "Catnip for Coaches".  Other than naughty pics of 3 different coaching staffs, there's no other explanation.  He can probably learn a playbook and understand what the correct read is given the defense superfast and superwell - he just can't apparently do that in real time at regular season game speed, and his brain writes checks his noodle arm can't cash (as Fitzpatrick did at times).

 

 

"Catnip for Coaches". 

 

[Punching Bag]

22 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

To me it looks like they drafted Elam based on physical traits and the little bit I've read recently sounds like coverage wise, he's like glue.  But he may be taking longer than expected to absorb, understand, and put into action all the mental parts of the game so that is what has been holding him back.  Could be too early last year he really struggled in these areas.  

 

 

In order to get most use of Elam they need to mix man-on-man and zone.  Assign Elam to cover one player of offense and rest of DBs cover other QB targets.  If Elam is as good as college he might be able to neutralize one opposing offense player.

[Rigotz]

10 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round:

 

First Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

T. White                     1,093                  99%

J. Allen                          719                  68%

T. Edmunds                  926                  91%

E. Oliver                        556                  54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%)

G. Rousseau                 531                  49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%)

K. Elam                         477                  45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson)

 

2nd Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

Z. Jones                      792                    75%

D. Dawkins                  781                    74%

C. Ford                        739                    69%  (5th on OL)

A. Epenesa                 291                     27%

B. Basham                   201                    19%

J. Cook                        269                    25%

 

3rd Round

Player                           # Snaps             % Snaps

H. Phillips                    389                    38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star)

D. Singletary               530                     50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%)

D. Knox                        646                     60% (more than double any TE)

Z. Moss                        403                     37% (2nd to Singletary)

S. Brown                       726                     61%

T. Bernard                    110                       11%

 

4th Round

Player                             # Snaps               % Snaps

T. Johnson                    405                    40% (only behind White and Wallace)

G. Davis                         797                     73%

 

Notables - Rounds 5-7

Matt Milano  (5th) played 41% of snaps but started last half of season

Wyatt Teller (5th) played 45% of snaps and had 3rd highest # for guards

Darryl Johnson (7th) played 22% of snaps

Tyler Bass (6th) has been their kicker since his rookie year

Dane Jackson (7th) played 18% of snaps

Christian Benford (6tth) played 34% of snaps despite his injuries 

 

Conclusions:

• First rounders have all started their rookie year with Elam the only one that was a part time starter.
• 2nd rounders have played less as the team has gotten better.
• Bernard has been the only 3rd rounder who did not get significant playing time as a rookie. The 3rd round has been pretty good for them. 
• Beane likes to trade his 4th round picks but given the success of Davis and Johnson maybe he should hang onto them more often.
• Rounds 5-7 you don't expect contributions right away but it seems just about every year they find someone who can get on the field.
• Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies.                 

 

This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. 

 

 

 

Excellent work and thank you for posting this. That's all I have to say. 

 

I've been thinking anecdotally that I remember many early round picks playing, but this officially debunks the false narrative that McDermott and Beane are slow to introduce rookies to the lineup.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

He was a strict press man corner in college.  Played little zone.  He was basically learning a different position and play style while playing behind a vet and equal to another rookie corner that had only played zone.  
 

I understand why he didn’t play full time last season based on those facts alone.  This year is a different story.  I really hope he can get acclimated by the playoffs and be our starter going forward.  I like Benford and Jackson—— but their lack of speed could be a detriment to our D- especially in our division 

They trusted him enough in the playoffs though and J just assumed based off his good play he’d be the shoo in cb2 this year.  It’s perplexing.

[Einstein]

13 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round:

 

First Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

T. White                     1,093                  99%

J. Allen                          719                  68%

T. Edmunds                  926                  91%

E. Oliver                        556                  54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%)

G. Rousseau                 531                  49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%)

K. Elam                         477                  45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson)

 

2nd Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

Z. Jones                      792                    75%

D. Dawkins                  781                    74%

C. Ford                        739                    69%  (5th on OL)

A. Epenesa                 291                     27%

B. Basham                   201                    19%

J. Cook                        269                    25%

 

3rd Round

Player                           # Snaps             % Snaps

H. Phillips                    389                    38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star)

D. Singletary               530                     50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%)

D. Knox                        646                     60% (more than double any TE)

Z. Moss                        403                     37% (2nd to Singletary)

S. Brown                       726                     61%

T. Bernard                    110                       11%

 

4th Round

Player                             # Snaps               % Snaps

T. Johnson                    405                    40% (only behind White and Wallace)

G. Davis                         797                     73%

 

• Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies.                 

 

Assuming your data is correct, this also shows that there is little correlation between the round we draft a player and their rookie play time.

Plugging your data into a regression analysis:

 

We receive a summary output of:

 

The coeffecient obviously has no practical meaning in this context, however the F-stat of 1.8 with a p-value of 0.2 shows that the regression model is not statistically significant at a 0.05 significance level. The r square backs this up with only 9.09% of the variation in the playing time explained by the round drafted. In other words the draft round does not account for a significant portion of the variation observed in the percentage of snaps played by rookies.

This coaching staff is just as likely to start a 5th rounder as a 2nd rounder.
 

Quote

Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies.    

 

3 draft classes is 50% of Beane's draft classes. That is a significant number. 

 

This could be re-hypothesized as "Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 3 draft classes. The reality is that our draft choices have not been as strong in recent years."

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

This statement is FAR too broad to reflect the data you have presented here.

 

Define "rookie" (what round?); define "use" (what in the world does that mean? 1 play = used); what the hell is a "meaningful role" ???

 

Your data shows a guy like Epenesa, a highly touted, well received SECOND ROUNDER played a mere 27% of the time in his rookie season.  That goes directly against your conclusion, for example.

 

I'm guessing there is some serious confirmation bias going on here; you wanted to believe the notion that McDermott won't use rookies is false, you dug up the data, and you interpreted it to suit your liking with quite a few subjective opinions along the way. 

That isn't how statistics works.

 

 

 

Well it kind is. Like the old saying goes "anyone with half a brain can make any statistic say anything they want". Also, the ol "lies, damned lies, and statistics".

 

But I do appreciate OPs efforts.

[PBF81]

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Is this referring to the benching of Tyrod in San Diego or the decision to start him week 1 of 2018? If the former then that DEFINITELY isn't true. It was actually Rick Dennison who initiated it. He was frustrated with Tyrod not running the scheme as designed and convinced McDermott that the offense would be more productive with someone who just "runs it as I call it." I believe it is true that the general feeling on the staff even then was "this is a mistake" but the offense had fallen into a bit of a hole with Tyrod and they went with it. I think it probably contributed to Dennison's firing after one year. McDermott owned the mistake, but the initiating of that decision was Rico. 

 

Equally I was told in 2018 that starting Peterman was 100% not Brian Daboll's doing, so if you meant that occasion you may well be right. There were even some in the building who think he called plays he knew Peterman couldn't complete in that first half in Baltimore to get Josh Allen on the field. 

 

Not sure, again, I know I read it somewhere, not sure the particular instances.  

 

We do know, via his own statements, that he was a lot more confident in Peterman than pretty much anyone else.  Whether there was in fact an individual out there somewhere, or more than one, that also shared that rosy outlook I obviously cannot say.  Simply stating what I read about that somewhat after the fact.  

 

And again, and what some of the pieces in the links below also state, why McD thought that Peterman was better than Taylor is mindboggling as well.  

 

A couple of quick pieces on the topic that turned up per a quick google as a refresher:  

 

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2018/07/19/buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-brandon-beane-nathan-peterman-tyrod-taylor-los-angeles-chargers-nfl/790696002/

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/10/sean_mcdermott_still_confidant_in_nathan_peterman_after_another_disaster.html

 

"I understand the fans and that sentiment, but at the same time I have to do what we feel is best for the football team going forward," McDermott said.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/sean-mcdermott-needs-to-look-at-the-tape-before-deciding-whether-nathan-peterman-should-be-benched/

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/11/sean-mcdermott-starting-nathan-peterman-wasnt-necessarily-a-bad-idea.html

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/09/nfl-buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-nathan-peterman-josh-allen

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/11/nfl-bills-sean-mcdermott-nathan-peterman-tyrod-taylor

 

 

[NewEra]

Just when I thought he was gone for good 😢 

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Not sure, again, I know I read it somewhere, not sure the particular instances.  

 

We do know, via his own statements, that he was a lot more confident in Peterman than pretty much anyone else.  Whether there was in fact an individual out there somewhere, or more than one, that also shared that rosy outlook I obviously cannot say.  Simply stating what I read about that somewhat after the fact.  

 

And again, and what some of the pieces in the links below also state, why McD thought that Peterman was better than Taylor is mindboggling as well.  

 

A couple of quick pieces on the topic that turned up per a quick google as a refresher:  

 

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2018/07/19/buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-brandon-beane-nathan-peterman-tyrod-taylor-los-angeles-chargers-nfl/790696002/

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2018/10/sean_mcdermott_still_confidant_in_nathan_peterman_after_another_disaster.html

 

"I understand the fans and that sentiment, but at the same time I have to do what we feel is best for the football team going forward," McDermott said.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/sean-mcdermott-needs-to-look-at-the-tape-before-deciding-whether-nathan-peterman-should-be-benched/

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/11/sean-mcdermott-starting-nathan-peterman-wasnt-necessarily-a-bad-idea.html

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/09/nfl-buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-nathan-peterman-josh-allen

 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/11/nfl-bills-sean-mcdermott-nathan-peterman-tyrod-taylor

 

 

 

Well I am telling you for a fact that Dennison lobbied for the 2017 switch. I don't know for definite what happened in 2018. I was told Daboll wanted to start Josh and there were people in the building who felt he intentionally exposed Peterman (rather than giving him a babying gameplan to hide his flaws) but that was from a far less reputable source then the Dennison information which I would stake my reputation on being true. 

[folz]

 

Another factor, which I actually really like with Sean's staff, is that players have to earn their playing time. It's not that McD won't play rookies, but you have to earn that playing time first. You don't get gifted a starting spot just because you were a first or second rounder or have a higher salary...you have to actually beat out (play better) than any vets or other players ahead of you. Like at the start of camp, etc, the vet/incumbent always gets the first crack at it (at least out of respect) and then they mix in the younger guy, and if he is better, he'll eventually take over. But he has to earn it. It just may take some rookies longer to earn playing time or a starting spot than others. I think this really matters in the locker room (with the vets), team chemistry, confidence in who's on the field, etc.  

 

And as others have mentioned (in regard to rookies), you have to realize that now that we are a very talented team across the board: 1. It is harder for young guys to crack the starting lineup, and 2. we are now drafting at the bottom of the draft. It is not a guarantee, but the odds are you'll hit more often with guys drafting say 7-16 than you will drafting 23-30.

 

The lower you go in the draft, the harder it is to find guys that are ready to just step right in to a starting role. Also, it seems that Beane likes to take some shots early in the draft. Rather than take the guy who you kind of know his ceiling and he'll be a good/solid player, reach for the guy with untapped potential and more elite measurables and hope you can coach him up into a higher-end player. It's a bit of a boom or bust strategy maybe, but to me it looks like all of Beane's 1st rounders, except for Kincaid, fit that mold. We'll see if that strategy pans out in the long run and/or if he sticks with it, but the fact is that some of these rookies needed a lot more coaching and experience to reach their potential than other more pro-ready players---which obviously would affect their rookie playing time as well.

Edited August 7, 2023 by folz

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, mrags said:

All I get out of this is that they should just trade their 3rd round picks. Knox and Brown are the only ones worth a damn. Singletary was about as average as it gets for a RB. The true definition of replaceable. And in the last 2 years they’ve managed to draft players into the LB role that are definitely not NFL caliber LBs. They drafted for need both times and neither is going to do anything in this league. 

 

Glad to know you can predict their future already.  Got any stock picks or lottery numbers?

[Buffalo716]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well I am telling you for a fact that Dennison lobbied for the 2017 switch. I don't know for definite what happened in 2018. I was told Daboll wanted to start Josh and there were people in the building who felt he intentionally exposed Peterman (rather than giving him a babying gameplan to hide his flaws) but that was from a far less reputable source then the Dennison information which I would stake my reputation on being true. 

You Can't intentionally expose Nathan Peterman

 

That means there was something good there in the first spot ... Like he was masking being good

 

He had a long way to becoming an NFL backup... Let alone a guy who could start 

 

Not a strong arm , not very mobile, panicks under pressure ... Doesn't see the field 

 

But the bills had a weak receiving core and a weak line ... From a franchise perspective

 

It's much better to trot out the weak link and let him take the lumps ... Instead of throwing your #1 pick to the wolves.. at least to start the year

 

QB is absolutely the one position that sitting and learning won't hurt and getting thrown to the fire can ruin you ...

 

The problem is fans in Buffalo would have revolted if they continued to start Peterman ... He wasn't even backup level.. an embarrassment 

 

If we trotted out Fitzpatrick for a year.. Josh absolutely could have learned from the bench

 

But he had to learn on the fly which is a lot harder... It is sink or swim

 

If you swim through all that muck you will come out great ..  only problem

 

Most quarterbacks who get thrown to the fire on bad teams have their growth stunted ... Taking 50 sacks a year and clobbered does a number 

 

David Carr... Coming out was much better than Derek as a prospect... But he took 65 sacks a year and got shell shocked 

 

The NFL IS ALL ABOUT SITUATIONS 

 

 

 

 

[bigK14094]

14 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

My concern with Elam is the fact that McDermott usually does start his first round rookies their rookie season.  The fact that he was benched for the corpse of Xavier Rhodes against the Pats last year was concerning.  The fact that a fifth round rookie the same year split time with him last year is concerning.  That he's not the clear cut starting CB opposite Tre White going into this year is concerning.  If you can't tell I'm concerned.

I think that Jackson, Elam and Benford are all in play to be starters.  I also think the brain trust saw how bad Tre White was last year and it has crossed their mind that Tre might not ever get back to the all Pro form he got paid for.

[WhoTom]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

If we trotted out Fitzpatrick for a year.. Josh absolutely could have learned from the bench

 

Fitz would have been the perfect mentor for Josh. They have the same gunslinger mentality and they're both good at improvising. My first impression of Josh, and it holds true today, is that he's a more talented version of Fitz.

 

 

[Augie]

Just now, WhoTom said:

 

Fitz would have been the perfect mentor for Josh. They have the same gunslinger mentality and they're both good at improvising. My first impression of Josh, and it holds true today, is that he's a more talented version of Fitz.

 

 

 

They should do a shaving commercial together. You could take that in so many directions!  😂 

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

Fitz would have been the perfect mentor for Josh. They have the same gunslinger mentality and they're both good at improvising. My first impression of Josh, and it holds true today, is that he's a more talented version of Fitz.

 

 

Well they do have a slightly similar style ..  gutsy tough slingers 

 

And yea fitz is like josh ... If Fitz was 6'5 240 pounds with a howitzer and can jump like a small forward 

 

Basically Superman Fitz on every Mexican steroid 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Buffalo716

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Well I am telling you for a fact that Dennison lobbied for the 2017 switch. I don't know for definite what happened in 2018. I was told Daboll wanted to start Josh and there were people in the building who felt he intentionally exposed Peterman (rather than giving him a babying gameplan to hide his flaws) but that was from a far less reputable source then the Dennison information which I would stake my reputation on being true. 

 

Whatever happened, but we all know that McD didn't have too many people in his corner on the decision, and whatever happened, McD put his stamp of approval on it and he's the HC and makes the final decisions.  I think.  Depends upon whom we ask I suppose.  LOL  

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I know he doesn’t have breakaway speed, but Singletary can make guys miss and has a career 4.7 YPC. That ain’t too shabby and I don’t think he got enough credit during his time here. 

 

Motor had some talent, for sure.  But neither his vision, elusiveness, nor power were elite.   I personally think his 4.7 YPC was primarily a result of the Bills system.  Defenses knew the Bills are a passing offense.   OCs schemed for Josh.  Opposing DE's set their sights on Josh.  LBs took a backward step first, expecting pass.  The D was probably aligned in a pass defense of some kind, nickel or dime.  And they were only worried about one thing: stopping Allen.  Not only was Josh's arm a threat, but so were his legs.  In fact, Josh was the only running threat opponents took seriously when Motor was here.   Motor was an afterthought.  We were never going to win a game on the strength of his running, so defenses didn't prioritize him.  

 

I liked Motor for his eponymous motor.  But I guess you can count me as one of the people who didn't give him enough credit.  

 

I hope Motor does well, post-Buffalo, but we'll see.   Here in Buffalo, I think the backfield is better this year than last - though I'm bummed Nyheim got hurt.  

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Motor had some talent, for sure.  But neither his vision, elusiveness, nor power were elite.   I personally think his 4.7 YPC was primarily a result of the Bills system.  Defenses knew the Bills are a passing offense.   OCs schemed for Josh.  Opposing DE's set their sights on Josh.  LBs took a backward step first, expecting pass.  The D was probably aligned in a pass defense of some kind, nickel or dime.  And they were only worried about one thing: stopping Allen.  Not only was Josh's arm a threat, but so were his legs.  In fact, Josh was the only running threat opponents took seriously when Motor was here.   Motor was an afterthought.  We were never going to win a game on the strength of his running, so defenses didn't prioritize him.  

 

I liked Motor for his eponymous motor.  But I guess you can count me as one of the people who didn't give him enough credit.  

 

I hope Motor does well, post-Buffalo, but we'll see.   Here in Buffalo, I think the backfield is better this year than last - though I'm bummed Nyheim got hurt.  

 

Don’t get me wrong, I was all for upgrading with more speed, but I think some people didn’t appreciate that he’s no chump. And yes, the Hines injury BLOWS. Especially with something so senseless and freaky. 

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

You Can't intentionally expose Nathan Peterman

 

That means there was something good there in the first spot ... Like he was masking being good

 

 

Ha. I agree. I watched his college film and thought he was undraftable. But the rumour in the Bills building was Daboll was all about making sure people realised quite quickly and there was no danger of him being asked to polish a turd for more than a half.

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Whatever happened, but we all know that McD didn't have too many people in his corner on the decision, and whatever happened, McD put his stamp of approval on it and he's the HC and makes the final decisions.  I think.  Depends upon whom we ask I suppose.  LOL  

 

 

Of course it was McDermott's final decision. And he never shirked it at all. Both times he chose to start Peterman over other options he owned it and accepted the mistake. 

 

The 2018 mistake I do partly blame Beane for. His "wait out the first couple of days of FA and take the scraps" strategy resulted in our "true vet" option being AJ McCarron. Once it was apparent he sucked (no surprise) they were on to start Josh vs start Nate and I think what happened is they were trying to protect Josh rather than ask "who is the better guy?" But it should have been apparent to everyone in that building that Nate Peterman sucked. I can't think of a worse NFL QB who has started for multiple teams in my 20 years of watching the league.

[mrags]

5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is what he said about Bernard just one year ago.  

 

I really feel like you cherry picked from full topic there. The first link I said I thought he would be in on situational downs. And the 2nd one I not only reiterated that, but I also ended it by saying I liked him as a player but also hoped I would be proven wrong. Fact is he’s too small to play LB in the league. He was then and he still is as it looks like he hasn’t gained any weight or muscle in his first offseason. The fact is he’s better suited to play WLB in this league. He’s actually more like a safety than LB. Which is where I thought we would use him, In certain situations. The fact is we didn’t. The fact is that (as the OP stated) he played a seriously low amount of snaps. McDermott didn’t find ways to get him on the field and use him the way he should have been. Even if you don’t consider a 3rd round pick to a a sure thing for any impact, the fact is he earned almost zero playing time. And it’s shown so far in this camp. Can’t beat out Dodson or even Spector for that matter. he was a wasted pick. 
 

It may be too soon to call it that on Williams. But the facts are he’s like a mirror image of Bernard. And they’ve already admitted that he’s not going to play MLB by not giving him any reps there. By filling him in to a backup WLB role. 
 

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think it is early to call that on Williams. A more legit criticism of that pick is that they knew when they drafted him he was a WILL in their system... and their current WILL is one of their best players. I think Williams has a chance to be an NFL player. Bernard, however..... I agree with your analysis. 

I agree somewhat with this. They seem to be wanting to use Williams as WLB. But it doesn’t help with their serious need at MLB. 

[mrags]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Glad to know you can predict their future already.  Got any stock picks or lottery numbers?

Well I mean Bernard got on the field for a seriously low number of snaps last year. And he can’t seem to ensure a starting spot over an undrafted MLB and a 7th round pick so far. So I’d say it’s a long shot. 

[Chaos]

16 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round:

 

First Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

T. White                     1,093                  99%

J. Allen                          719                  68%

T. Edmunds                  926                  91%

E. Oliver                        556                  54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%)

G. Rousseau                 531                  49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%)

K. Elam                         477                  45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson)

 

2nd Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

Z. Jones                      792                    75%

D. Dawkins                  781                    74%

C. Ford                        739                    69%  (5th on OL)

A. Epenesa                 291                     27%

B. Basham                   201                    19%

J. Cook                        269                    25%

 

3rd Round

Player                           # Snaps             % Snaps

H. Phillips                    389                    38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star)

D. Singletary               530                     50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%)

D. Knox                        646                     60% (more than double any TE)

Z. Moss                        403                     37% (2nd to Singletary)

S. Brown                       726                     61%

T. Bernard                    110                       11%

 

4th Round

Player                             # Snaps               % Snaps

T. Johnson                    405                    40% (only behind White and Wallace)

G. Davis                         797                     73%

 

Notables - Rounds 5-7

Matt Milano  (5th) played 41% of snaps but started last half of season

Wyatt Teller (5th) played 45% of snaps and had 3rd highest # for guards

Darryl Johnson (7th) played 22% of snaps

Tyler Bass (6th) has been their kicker since his rookie year

Dane Jackson (7th) played 18% of snaps

Christian Benford (6tth) played 34% of snaps despite his injuries 

 

Conclusions:

• First rounders have all started their rookie year with Elam the only one that was a part time starter.
• 2nd rounders have played less as the team has gotten better.
• Bernard has been the only 3rd rounder who did not get significant playing time as a rookie. The 3rd round has been pretty good for them. 
• Beane likes to trade his 4th round picks but given the success of Davis and Johnson maybe he should hang onto them more often.
• Rounds 5-7 you don't expect contributions right away but it seems just about every year they find someone who can get on the field.
• Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies.                 

 

This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. 

 

 

Compare this to the last couple of Super Bowl winners. 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, mrags said:

 

I agree somewhat with this. They seem to be wanting to use Williams as WLB. But it doesn’t help with their serious need at MLB. 

 

It doesn't. But it isn't fair to say he can't play in the NFL.

[mrags]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It doesn't. But it isn't fair to say he can't play in the NFL.

Well. I mean I’m factually incorrect considering he IS IN THE NFL now. Bit imo he will never get significant playing time. The most he will we be is a special teamer and at best a backup.  He’s too small to play the position in the League. Of course I’ll continue to hear and see evidence of players being similar sizes and blah blah blah. I guess I’ll hope I’m going to be wrong but I’d put money on it that I’m right. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The 2018 mistake I do partly blame Beane for. His "wait out the first couple of days of FA and take the scraps" strategy resulted in our "true vet" option being AJ McCarron. Once it was apparent he sucked (no surprise) they were on to start Josh vs start Nate and I think what happened is they were trying to protect Josh rather than ask "who is the better guy?" But it should have been apparent to everyone in that building that Nate Peterman sucked. I can't think of a worse NFL QB who has started for multiple teams in my 20 years of watching the league.

 

As usual, what bothered me is the statements made to the public as if some of us are stupid.  Peterman giving us the best chance to win ... whatever.  Taylor would have been much better.  I realize that they have to play the media game, but there's often a fine line between humiliating yourself and looking like a buffoon and couching statements to try and deflect.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, mrags said:

Well. I mean I’m factually incorrect considering he IS IN THE NFL now. Bit imo he will never get significant playing time. The most he will we be is a special teamer and at best a backup.  He’s too small to play the position in the League. Of course I’ll continue to hear and see evidence of players being similar sizes and blah blah blah. I guess I’ll hope I’m going to be wrong but I’d put money on it that I’m right. 

 

He isn't too small to be a WILL.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

As usual, what bothered me is the statements made to the public as if some of us are stupid.  Peterman giving us the best chance to win ... whatever.  Taylor would have been much better.  I realize that they have to play the media game, but there's often a fine line between humiliating yourself and looking like a buffoon and couching statements to try and deflect.  

 

 

I don't get super wound up by what sports coaches say to the media. It's all a game. And I say that as a former member of said media. Media members ask questions we know the answer to to try and elicit a headline for our story. Coaches give us stock answers we all know are half truths to try and prevent what one great soccer coach once described to me as "the fires of chaos" descending. It's a game. We know both times he owned it to the team and accepted accountability for his error. That is all that really matters. 

[mrags]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He isn't too small to be a WILL.

Look at him side by side next to Milano and say that 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

Look at him side by side next to Milano and say that 

 

I'd still say that.

[PBF81]

We'll know very soon what's going on at MLB. 

 

I wouldn't consider that they don't try to eliminate the position altogether in favor of two OLBs.  They're always so giddy about versatile players and confusing D looks, they may try something like that.  I wouldn't do it, but it may be better than using an undersized MLB that simply doesn't have the umph to get the job done.  

 

You know MO, that it's going to be an issue.  As with rags, we hope we're wrong.  But there's nothing in the draft profiles of any of those two recent draftees that suggests they're capable of playing the position.  Bernard was a reach in the 3rd according to most draft profiles.  

 

We'll see what happens.  

 

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by PBF81

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

We'll know very soon what's going on at MLB. 

 

I wouldn't consider that they try to eliminate the position altogether in favor of two OLBs.  They're always so giddy about versatile players and confusing D looks, they may try something like that.  I wouldn't do it, but it may be better than using an undersized MLB that simply doesn't have the umph to get the job done.  

 

You know MO, that it's going to be an issue.  As with rags, we hope we're wrong.  But there's nothing in the draft profiles of any of those two recent draftees that suggests they're capable of playing the position.  Bernard was a reach in the 3rd according to most draft profiles.  

 

We'll see what happens.  

 

 

 

I did consider the "they will plug Williams in at WILL and slide Milano into the middle" option and go with two undersized guys right after the draft. That is on record. Because I thought throughout the draft process that Williams was a WILL not a MIKE. But Beane immediately dismissed it as an idea. It wouldn't be my ideal look but I do think it might be the best way of maximising the talent they have at some stage.

 

Dodson is a backup level talent and I am not sure Bernard belongs in the league.