Bills Offense - Why it Frustrates- Why Total Productivity is Not Likely to Improve (there will Math)

[Chaos]

Josh should do this, Ken Dorsey is not good enough, we need more run balance,  blah de blah de blad de blah.  

In measuring an offense, the most important statisitics is points per drive.   In football drives alternate.  Each team gets the exact same number in a game within 1 drive. A drive that turns the balls over on downs on the opponents five yard line is exactly the same out come as a punt that goes out of bounds at the opponents five.   Emotionally fans want to hurl something at the tv in the first case, and want to talk about how great their special teams are in the second case.  Emotions aside, the drive ended in zero points with the ball on the opponents five yard line and now the other team has the ball. Exactly the same outcome.

 

In 2023 there were five offenses that were more than one standard deviation above the average from the rest of the NFL.  Three of the five made NFL championship games. Lions and Bills were the other two.  The Bills were second overall, trailing only the Chiefs.  But the frustration for fans comes from the fact that the Bills are 16th in redzone point production.  The Bills turn into an average NFL team in the redzone, it would appear.  While frustrating, the Bills offense was still the second most efficient in the NFL per drive in 2023.  If the Bills could improve the redzone offense to the Chiefs level, while maintaining the dynamic big play offense they have, they could be come the top offense in the NFL in 2023.  But staying in the elite group of being more than 1 STD deviation above the average is a more realistic goal (same for all the others already in that group).  There just is not much juice left to squeeze out in the TOTAL regular season points lemon.  I love the Bills off season moves on online and drafting Kincaid.  But the end regular season result (if as fans we are lucky) is that the Bills will achieve the same excellent results overall, just in a different way. 
 

In the first paragraph I set motions aside in terms of statistics.  However emotions do have impact in an individual football play or individual game.  If one combines the Red Zone averageness together with the Bills playoff averageness , one might surmise that there is a pattern of a problem to close.  The psychological inability to close is a real thing, and this is the main area the Bills need to work on.   If the Bills revamped offense, becomes top 5 in red zone offense in the regular season in 2023, it could mean that they have improved in the ability to close the deal, which might bode well for a deeper playoff run.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Chaos

[GunnerBill]

Linked to the psychological closing issue is the number if games the Bills lose by 1 score where our offense has the ball last. All 3 defeats last year in the regular season fall into that category and over the last 2 years it has been a recurring issue. That shouldn't be happening with an elite QB and it may well be partly mental.

 

However, I think both - redzone and end of game - are the situations where the pressure rachets up on our pass protection and it invariably has failed.

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Linked to the psychological closing issue is the number if games the Bills lose by 1 score where our offense has the ball last. All 3 defeats last year in the regular season fall into that category and over the last 2 years it has been a recurring issue. That shouldn't be happening with an elite QB and it may well be partly mental.

 

However, I think both - redzone and end of game - are the situations where the pressure rachets up on our pass protection and it invariably has failed.

I agree with the point.  But I think failure in those games is not limited to the last drive.  It is the Bills putting themselves into that position in the first place.  Some of those were games were Bills should have been in a position to be in victory formation in those final drives.  Tom Brady had his heroics.  But Bellichek always put his foot on the opponents throat the entire game once he had a lead and mostly did not need final drive heroics. The Bills don't have seem to have that ruthless instinct. 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Chaos

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I agree with the point.  But I think failure in those games is not limited to the last drive.  It is the Bills putting themselves into that position in the first place.  Some of those were games were Bills should have been in a position to be in victory formation in those final drives.  Tom Brady had his heroics.  But Bellichek always put his foot on the opponents throat the entire game once he had a lead and mostly did not need final drive heroics. The Bills don't have seem to have that ruthless instinct. 

 

Yea but the NFL is a parity league. There will be 5 or 6 games every year where it comes down to the end. There were years Brady had to pull late game heroics even against bad teams. Of course everyone knows the Bills made mistakes earlier in some of those losses. But they had the ball with a realistic chance to win in all 3 and didn't get it done. They have to be better in those sceanrios.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Linked to the psychological closing issue is the number if games the Bills lose by 1 score where our offense has the ball last. All 3 defeats last year in the regular season fall into that category and over the last 2 years it has been a recurring issue. That shouldn't be happening with an elite QB and it may well be partly mental.

 

However, I think both - redzone and end of game - are the situations where the pressure rachets up on our pass protection and it invariably has failed.

I dont think the bolded is real.  The Chiefs lost 3 games last year, in two of them Mahomes threw an INT to end the game.  You dont win all your games, no one does and many times  you end the game with the ball.  2021 is an anomaly.....Allen has been great against Mahomes in money situations.  The difference is lack of super bowl's.

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

But the frustration for fans comes from the fact that the Bills are 16th in redzone point production.  The Bills turn into an average NFL team in the redzone, it would appear.  While frustrating, the Bills offense was still the second most efficient in the NFL per drive in 2023. 

 

I have been saying this  all offseason...fans are upset because yeah the offense scored points but it did not look easy enough.   I think the "look easy enough" correlates with the redzone numbers.  I agree, they can improve but the overall output isn't likely to change much.  At this point it is Super Bowl or bust with this team, the expectations are sky high and they should be.  Does not really matter what happens in the regular season if they lay an egg in the playoffs.

[Saint Doug]

Statistically, the Bills offense does not need to improve. There are 2 things holding the team back. The inability of the defense to close out a game (see Vikings game) and offense taking games off (Bangles). These are the types of things that don’t show up in offensive season averages. 

[Augie]

I can’t wait for football to start. 

[Lost]

We need to work on the Pat Mahomes special...naked bootleg shovel pass into the EZ.

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

the drive ended in zero points with the ball on the opponents five yard line and now the other team has the ball. Exactly the same outcome.

Do me a favor, call up McClappy and try to teach him this very simple concept.

Actually, he has gotten BETTER with this sort of thing over TIME, but man, we have all paid for his learning curve.

 

And in other similar areas, he's still very much in the dark.  

 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

The psychological inability to close is a real thing, and this is the main area the Bills need to work on. 

Some would agree with this (including me) a LOT of others would NOT.

 

Very much a debatable point.

 

PS:  You are shoving a season worth of data into 1 stat; that's misleading with the Bills' offense last season IMO, in the sense that we can be such a volatile offense, and there can be such a diversity in opponent strength, that some games we pad the numbers, while in others we really struggle.

 

To boil it all down and say "we are no. 2" sounds amazing, but misses the point that we struggled MIGHTILY in some of the biggest games of the season, and were most certainly NOT functioning as the league's second best offense.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I dont think the bolded is real.  The Chiefs lost 3 games last year, in two of them Mahomes threw an INT to end the game.  You dont win all your games, no one does and many times  you end the game with the ball. 

 

Of course you don't. But the last two season the Bills have lost too many times with the offense having the ball last. They have to be better. I think that starts up front, but there may be a mental element to it too.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Saint Doug said:

Statistically, the Bills offense does not need to improve. There are 2 things holding the team back. The inability of the defense to close out a game (see Vikings game) and offense taking games off (Bangles). These are the types of things that don’t show up in offensive season averages. 

They do show up in the playoffs though.

[Artful Dodger]

My statistics are a little rusty, but since you're hitting us with math, shouldn't one standard deviation above the norm put a team in the top third of all offenses?

[Heavy Kevi]

I read this a different way.

 

Bills were 2nd in pts/drive despite being average (quite literally) in the RZ.

 

RZ production took a big nosedive last year. With Allen, Bills have been near the top of the league in RZ production until '22.

 

Ergo, if RZ production returns to normal (top 10 at least), Bills will be significantly better (and probably first in the league in pts/drive)

 

Furthermore, the Bills had the fewest amount of drives in the entire NFL last year (close to CIN, because one less game), and even though this is an averages chart, another 8-10 bites at the apple might yield different results.

 

The long and the short of it is this: Bills were better than they looked like last year, and scored alot early in the season, which left a bad taste in fans' mouth. They still finished 2nd in pts/GM while all hell broke loose. Wait until the stars align. If a team is this good, even under crazy circumstances of last year, just have fun and watch...

 

...because one of these years we will get the bounces to go our way, and this team/Josh is good enough to bring one home.

[JerseyBills]

I think it's impressive and encouraging we're able to rank 2nd in ppd with such poor rz execution. 

I just think that's very fixable issue with the right play calling and hopefully way better run game, I'm guessing we were bottom of the league in rush attempts in the rz .

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Linked to the psychological closing issue is the number if games the Bills lose by 1 score where our offense has the ball last. All 3 defeats last year in the regular season fall into that category and over the last 2 years it has been a recurring issue. That shouldn't be happening with an elite QB and it may well be partly mental.

 

However, I think both - redzone and end of game - are the situations where the pressure rachets up on our pass protection and it invariably has failed.

2/3 of the Chiefs regular season losses last year where 1 score games where their offense had the ball last

[Shaw66]

I agree with Chaos and Gunner.  I think the red zone issue isn't all that big.  If you're second in points per drive, that's enough be a winner.

 

But I've felt the psychological piece ever since the Houston playoff game.  There are too many games where it just feels like the Bills aren't in charge when they should be, and I do equate it to some kind of killer instinct.  At the end of the game, Rodgers and Brady are emotionally draining for the opponent.  They make you feel like they're making the blood run out of your veins.  Josh and the Bills don't do that.

 

As I watched last season i was glad the Bills had Miller, because he sucks life out of the offense.  When the time comes to win the game, he makes plays. And the biggest problem I had with Edmunds was the opposite - when the time came to make plays, he played like he was 5'5" instead of 6'5".

 

It's a complicated thing.  It's on the coaches AND the players.  McDermott has that fire personally, but I don't know that he ignites his team.  It's also a reason I'm glad Frazier is gone.  No fire that I could see.  

 

Not sure what the answer is, but I do think this a fundamental problem with this team.

 

[SoCal Deek]

Or the Bills could just run the goal line play where the TE sneaks out the opposite side of the formation only to be standing wide open in the back of the end zone…like every other team has learned to do for decades now. But nope! We’re gonna live and die by the 50/50 ball fade route even if it kills us! 😉

[NewEra]

Enter Kincaid

[Big Turk]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Linked to the psychological closing issue is the number if games the Bills lose by 1 score where our offense has the ball last. All 3 defeats last year in the regular season fall into that category and over the last 2 years it has been a recurring issue. That shouldn't be happening with an elite QB and it may well be partly mental.

 

However, I think both - redzone and end of game - are the situations where the pressure rachets up on our pass protection and it invariably has failed.

 

I have a hard time putting it on Allen when he has repeatedly given us leads late in games that the D can't hold with under 2 minutes left. If anything, the defense lacks clutch ability, Allen certainly does not.

Edited July 15, 2023 by Big Turk

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Enter Kincaid

I have hopes for this kid but in the redzone where space is compressed and being able to diagnose leverage quickly against NFL pros...that's not where I'm expecting him to really shine tbh

[PrimeTime101]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Enter Kincaid

when you said Enter Kincaid? I thought of this 

 

Enter The Dragon lol.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

OMG @Chaos is now an analytics nerd.

 

It's not just the fans who are impacted emotionally by failure..........turning the ball over at the 5 is NOT just the same as a long punt pinning the team at the 5.    It can have a very different impact depending on the other situations involved in the game.    Momentum is real.   We've recently been discussing the WC game against the Dolphins and there was a play late in the half where a wide open Khalil Shakir dropped a long bomb that would have set the Bills up for another score.   Not coming away with points on drives where you should have can be deflating to the team.   A punt followed and a minute later the whole tenor of the game had changed from a likely blowout to a dogfight.   And you can't tell me that a lack of energy/emotion wasn't a huge factor in the playoff loss a week later.  

 

As for there not being much room to improve statistically...........yeah there is plenty.   Josh Allen is or was at the peak of his all around abilities.   With the right cast around him there was no reason that the Bills couldn't have rode his generational skills to put up 38 points per game like the 2013 Broncos.   10 more points per game than what they produced last year is A LOT of room for improvement.   What the Chiefs produced in a transition year or what the Eagles produced with Jalen Hurts at QB( no Josh Allen) shouldn't be the standard.   The 2007 Patriots produced 37 points per game and the 2018 Chiefs with a first year starter in Mahomes produced 35 points per game.   These are the standards when you have a generational QB at the peak of his skills.

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I have hopes for this kid but in the redzone where space is compressed and being able to diagnose leverage quickly against NFL pros...that's not where I'm expecting him to really shine tbh

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion. 
 

he didn’t have any trouble reading leverage in college.  It was actually one of his strengths in setting up his RAC opportunities.  Plenty of which were in the red zone.
 

Huge, soft hands.  Contested catches with a large catch radius.  RAC. Great burst/release.  Attributes one looks for in the red zone.  
 

you could be right.  I think you’re wrong

 

its all on Dorsey to make it work imo.  

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You’re certainly entitled to that opinion. 
 

he didn’t have any trouble reading leverage in college.  It was actually one of his strengths in setting up his RAC opportunities.  Plenty of which were in the red zone.
 

Huge, soft hands.  Contested catches with a large catch radius.  RAC. Great burst/release.  Attributes one looks for in the red zone.  
 

you could be right.  I think you’re wrong

 

its all on Dorsey to make it work imo.  

I'm wrong plenty😂😂I'd love to be wrong on this

 

Improve redzone efficiency and this offense is best in the league w a bullet

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I have a hard time putting it on Allen when he has repeatedly given us leads late in games that the D can't hold with under 2 minutes left. If anything, the defense lacks clutch ability, Allen certainly does not.

 

I didn't put it on Allen.

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't put it on Allen.

I would put the Vikings game on Allen.  

[GoBills808]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

I would put the Vikings game on Allen.  

I'd go 50/50 personally

 

That INT was brutal but the Jefferson catch over Lewis and and Cook TD were two inexcusable defensive lapses

 

I mean the Cook run was the second longest TD run in the league all season lol

[Shaw66]

45 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I have a hard time putting it on Allen when he has repeatedly given us leads late in games that the D can't hold with under 2 minutes left. If anything, the defense lacks clutch ability, Allen certainly does not.

Actually, I think Allen is maddeningly inconsistent in this regard.  Sometimes late in games he's let the team down playing for the big play instead of being surgical like Brady Rodgers Mahomes. 

[HappyDays]

Sometimes I think we get too lost in rankings. Everyone who watched the games last year knows the Bills offense had a ton of unforced errors. Clean up some of those errors and the productivity WILL improve. So saying productivity is not likely to improve is obviously false. It's not about being ranked 3rd or 1st across the whole season, it's about finding ways to win enough games to be the #1 seed and then advance in the playoffs. A lot of times the difference between the #1 seed and the #4 seed is a few critical moments sprinkled over just 2-3 games. Those are the moments where the Bills have fallen short and that isn't going to show up in any kind of statistical analysis.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I'd go 50/50 personally

 

That INT was brutal but the Jefferson catch over Lewis and and Cook TD were two inexcusable defensive lapses

 

I mean the Cook run was the second longest TD run in the league all season lol

The defense also stopped the Vikings at the goal line.  We wouldn’t remember the Jefferson catch if we could complete a simple QB/C exchange.

 

Then he forced the ball over the middle after double clutching.

 

He had two turnovers in the last 40 seconds of the game.  3 total.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

The defense also stopped the Vikings at the goal line.  We wouldn’t remember the Jefferson catch if we could complete a simple QB/C exchange.

 

Then he forced the ball over the middle after double clutching.

 

He had two turnovers in the last 40 seconds of the game.  3 total.

There's blame for sure

 

But even w the turnovers they put up 30 w Allen once again having to shoulder the load in its entirety...I mean he also rushed for 80+ yards lol

 

I think it's eminently fair to say everyone contributed to that loss

 

 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I would put the Vikings game on Allen.  

 

Yea true, Josh and Morse.

[Shaw66]

I'll say also that one reason I think the offense fails in the red zone is that the line hasn't been stong enough to dominate. They never give confidence that they'll win the battle to let the back score. They might have a killer instinct, but the other guys are better. 

[JaCrispy]

Our offense was always at its best when Beasley was on the team…

 

Teams couldn’t cover him and he was always that short safety valve for Josh, which helped to open the deep game…

 

Hopefully “Swole” Beasley can do the same…the good part is they both played basketball and know how to get open…👍

Edited July 15, 2023 by JaCrispy

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but the NFL is a parity league. There will be 5 or 6 games every year where it comes down to the end. There were years Brady had to pull late game heroics even against bad teams. Of course everyone knows the Bills made mistakes earlier in some of those losses. But they had the ball with a realistic chance to win in all 3 and didn't get it done. They have to be better in those sceanrios.

I agree with you and Chaos but personally I'd lean towards improving the end of game scenarios. We led the NFL in total differential.  We need a better "closer" mentality. We absolutely can't have a 16th ranked redzone and expect to go far in the playoffs. 

[LABILLBACKER]

19 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Our offense was always at its best when Beasley was on the team…

 

Teams couldn’t cover him and he was always that short safety valve for Josh, which helped to open the deep game…

 

Hopefully “Swole” Beasley can do the same…the good part is they both played basketball and know how to get open…👍

Watching Kincaid play in the Pac12, I have no doubts whatsoever that he'll move the chains the same way Beas did.  But once in the redzone as defenses compress, that's where we'll have to be "Andy Reid like" creative.

[Saint Doug]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

They do show up in the playoffs though.

They do, until they don’t. And those failures have defined each season. After that KC loss or the Bangles loss, any success that came beforehand no longer mattered. 

[Big Turk]

I don't really think it needs to improve much overall, I simply think that there are some improvements that need to come situationally and that Dorsey should be able to take the lessons he learned from being a first year OC and start implementing them.

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but the NFL is a parity league. There will be 5 or 6 games every year where it comes down to the end. There were years Brady had to pull late game heroics even against bad teams. Of course everyone knows the Bills made mistakes earlier in some of those losses. But they had the ball with a realistic chance to win in all 3 and didn't get it done. They have to be better in those sceanrios.

 

How many games last year did they win in those scenarios? I'll hang up and listen. Because it was more than 3.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Actually, I think Allen is maddeningly inconsistent in this regard.  Sometimes late in games he's let the team down playing for the big play instead of being surgical like Brady Rodgers Mahomes. 

It seems like the team puts Allen in this position far more often than other QBs.  He is ranked 13th ALL-TIME in fourth quarter comebacks, in only a little over five seasons as a starter. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Sometimes I think we get too lost in rankings. Everyone who watched the games last year knows the Bills offense had a ton of unforced errors. Clean up some of those errors and the productivity WILL improve. So saying productivity is not likely to improve is obviously false. It's not about being ranked 3rd or 1st across the whole season, it's about finding ways to win enough games to be the #1 seed and then advance in the playoffs. A lot of times the difference between the #1 seed and the #4 seed is a few critical moments sprinkled over just 2-3 games. Those are the moments where the Bills have fallen short and that isn't going to show up in any kind of statistical analysis.

And a high percentage of those unforced errors involved the left guard or right tackle; there were a few on Allen but most of those were on plays (or a play or two after a play) where the left guard or right tackle screwed up and scrambled his internal clock and patience.  Margin for error in this league is small.  Those two positions had an outside impact based on my untrained eyes.