Bills Offense - Why it Frustrates- Why Total Productivity is Not Likely to Improve (there will Math)

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, Airseven said:

Another issue is Allen imploding under pressure, whether by costly turnover, inaccurate throw, or bungled sneak. These sorts of analyses by Bills fans are problematic because they’re often built on the faulty premise that Allen is elite. Elite arm strength and athleticism, sure. But elite QB? No. His inconsistency is part of this problem.

 

Right. Because he imploded under pressure in the 2021 postseason when he had the highest passer rating of all time for a playoff.  And he's shown an inability to win games last year in the clutch when he only led the Bills to a 4-3 record in such games in the regular season. Mahomes was 2-2 in the regular season in similar chances. 

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Yep. If the goal is to make the offense more efficient, is there a more efficient play than dumping a ball off to the RB in the flat or a short curl for a gain of 7 yards? A pass that has like a 90% completion rate. 

So in your view comp% = efficiency

 

Yet you're saying Davis is sufficient 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

So in your view comp% = efficiency

 

Yet you're saying Davis is sufficient 

I also said Davis needs a decreased target share. You must have missed hat in my post?
 

The targets taken away from Davis should be redistributed to the slot and RB’s and thereby increasing overall efficiency. 
 

And as I also mentioned I would suspect Davis’ production per target would increase with fewer targets. 

 

Basically we would increase the efficiency of the offense on both ends. The deeper and longer routes become more efficient and the shorter  more efficient routes become more frequent. 
 

 

Also, Davis fills a role in this offense. You can’t hav an efficient offense without a deep threat longer route running receiver. Even if those are lower completion percentage plays you need to have them as part of the offense and a balanced attack. 
 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I also said Davis needs a decreased target share. You must have missed hat in my post?
 

The targets taken away from Davis should be redistributed to the slot and RB’s and thereby increasing overall efficiency. 
 

And as I also mentioned I would suspect Davis’ production per target would increase with fewer targets. 

 

Basically we would increase the efficiency of the offense on both ends. The deeper and longer routes become more efficient and the shorter  more efficient routes become more frequent. 
 

 

I did miss that, I agree w most of this

 

Except I don't believe Davis's production gets better w fewer targets but the offense would benefit from having a more capable second option obviously

[PBF81]

OFFENSIVE LINE!!!  

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

IExcept I don't believe Davis's production gets better w fewer targets but the offense would benefit from having a more capable second option obviously

 

I'll disagree here. No idea how much his production per target would increase with a decrease in targets. But when you are not forcing the issue to a receiver and rather hitting them on more open targets or greater separation targets their efficiency should increase. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I'll disagree here. No idea how much his production per target would increase with a decrease in targets. But when you are not forcing the issue to a receiver and rather hitting them on more open targets or greater separation targets their efficiency should increase. 

So as much as I think Davis is limited, taking targets away from him as the offense is constructed now means they are going to untested guys who are likely just as if not even more inefficient...imo we badly need a second option at wideout

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So as much as I think Davis is limited, taking targets away from him as the offense is constructed now means they are going to untested guys who are likely just as if not even more inefficient...imo we badly need a second option at wideout

Not trying to be sarcastic but isn’t that what they’re at least partly hoping the “untested” guys will be? 

[GoBills808]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Not trying to be sarcastic but isn’t that what they’re at least partly hoping the “untested” guys will be? 

Yes but I'm not super confident in the idea that guys just blossom out of nowhere

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes but I'm not super confident in the idea that guys just blossom out of nowhere

 

 

I’m not sure a #1 draft pick is considered out of nowhere.

 

BTW….are you in Hawaii?

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m not sure a #1 draft pick is considered out of nowhere.

 

BTW….are you in Hawaii?

The rookie TE I do expect to contribute

 

 yes I am

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Or problem has been that tree playoffs however, and Dogs has been more invisible than Davis therein, especially considering his status.  

 

Regular season is not our issue.  

 

 

I generally agree. Playoffs is a different animal. Teams are going to sell out to stop your #1 weapon. That's why you need 2 weapons in today's NFL.

 

If a D sells out to stop Diggs, there's no reason Gabe (or any real #2) shouldn't consistently torch the defense.

 

Imo the problem is Gabe only able to create separation on deep routes. 

 

Commit the resources to shutting down Diggs, cheat towards guarding against deep stuff on Gabes side, force him to beat you on short stuff (which he can't). 

 

Diggs also needs to step it up but IMO Dorsey didn't do him any favors this year.

 

Bottom line we were too 1dimemsional. If you don't have to sweat a run game, aren't worried about a #2 hurting you, aren't getting any pressure from the slot, you're gunna have some success

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

33 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So as much as I think Davis is limited, taking targets away from him as the offense is constructed now means they are going to untested guys who are likely just as if not even more inefficient...imo we badly need a second option at wideout

 

Getting production at the RB position in the passing game should be a matter of just throwing the ball to whoever is out there. It's much more plug and play at that position. Hines, Cook and Singletary all could have contributed a lot more in that regard if we just targeted them more. 

 

I agree with the slot, the guys actually have to be capable and learn the position.  But really shouldn't be any excuses to not get more out of the RB group in the passing game. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Getting production at the RB position in the passing game should be a matter of just throwing the ball to whoever is out there. It's much more plug and play at that position. Hines, Cook and Singletary all could have contributed a lot more in that regard if we just targeted them more. 

 

I agree with the slot, the guys actually have to be capable and learn the position.  But really shouldn't be any excuses to not get more out of the RB group in the passing game. 

Do good offenses target their RBs a lot tho? I mean is that an efficient use of a down 

 

 

[Beck Water]

On 7/15/2023 at 6:17 AM, GunnerBill said:

Linked to the psychological closing issue is the number if games the Bills lose by 1 score where our offense has the ball last. All 3 defeats last year in the regular season fall into that category and over the last 2 years it has been a recurring issue. That shouldn't be happening with an elite QB and it may well be partly mental.

 

However, I think both - redzone and end of game - are the situations where the pressure rachets up on our pass protection and it invariably has failed.

 

Meaning no offense, Gunner, but if you're speaking of the Bills 3 losses last season, I don't think you can call all 3 of them examples of some "psychological closing issue". 

 

The win against the Packers could justifiably be described that way, as could the OT loss to the Vikings.

 

The loss to the Dolphins was a story of mistakes and missed opportunities all game long

-a fumble on the Buf 7 yd line leading to a TD

-a punt after 3 straight incomplete passes from the MIA 45 yd line

-end of half after 1st and 10 from MIA 41 with 14 seconds left

-FG after 1st and 11 from the MIA 11 yd line

-blocked FG after 1st and 10 from the MIA 26

-TOD after 1st and goal from the MIA 2

 

I believe the Jets loss would have a similar assessment of miscues and missed opportunities.

 

There are problems there, but that isn't a "psychological closing issue".

 

23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Do good offenses target their RBs a lot tho? I mean is that an efficient use of a down

 

It depends on the RB in question, right?  I mean, the SB era Bills used to target Thurman Thomas a lot and I recall it being a damned efficient use of a down.

 

If there is good coverage of the receivers and the QB throws to the RB in the flat or a short route who then gains 4-6 yards, is that an efficient use of a down relative to a long incompletion?  Now it's 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 6. vs 2nd and 10.

[Shaw66]

38 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I generally agree. Playoffs is a different animal. Teams are going to sell out to stop your #1 weapon. That's why you need 2 weapons in today's NFL.

 

If a D sells out to stop Diggs, there's no reason Gabe (or any real #2) shouldn't consistently torch the defense.

 

Imo the problem is Gabe only able to create separation on deep routes. 

 

Commit the resources to shutting down Diggs, cheat towards guarding against deep stuff on Gabes side, force him to beat you on short stuff (which he can't). 

 

Diggs also needs to step it up but IMO Dorsey didn't do him any favors this year.

 

Bottom line we were too 1dimemsional. If you don't have to sweat a run game, aren't worried about a #2 hurting you, aren't getting any pressure from the slot, you're gunna have some success

Yes, if the D sells out to stop Diggs, there's no reason the rest of the receiving corps shouldn't pick up the slack. 

 

But, no, it's not about a receiver being able to get separation, and it's not about Davis "beating" anyone short.   The point is that when a defense "sells out" to stop a weapon (which usually means some kind of double team), the rest of the defensive seven have too much field to be able to cover the whole space.   There are opportunities to get open simply by running well-designed routes efficiently.   That's on Dorsey's route design and playcalling, it's on the backs and receivers making the reads and executing their routes, and it's on Allen reading the defenses and making the throws accurately and on time.  

 

There are very few receivers in the league who consistently get separation on their own, one on one.   A few do with speed and good cuts, like Tyreek, and a few do it with lightning-quick stops, starts, and changes of direction, like Diggs.  Except for the true #1s who happen to be playing the #2 until their rookie contracts run out, very few #2s get separation on their own.  

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Meaning no offense, Gunner, but if you're speaking of the Bills 3 losses last season, I don't think you can call all 3 of them examples of some "psychological closing issue". 

 

The win against the Packers could justifiably be described that way, as could the OT loss to the Vikings.

 

The loss to the Dolphins was a story of mistakes and missed opportunities all game long

-a fumble on the Buf 7 yd line leading to a TD

-a punt after 3 straight incomplete passes from the MIA 45 yd line

-end of half after 1st and 10 from MIA 41 with 14 seconds left

-FG after 1st and 11 from the MIA 11 yd line

-blocked FG after 1st and 10 from the MIA 26

-TOD after 1st and goal from the MIA 2

 

I believe the Jets loss would have a similar assessment of miscues and missed opportunities.

 

There are problems there, but that isn't a "psychological closing issue".

 

 

It depends on the RB in question, right?  I mean, the SB era Bills used to target Thurman Thomas a lot and I recall it being a damned efficient use of a down.

 

If there is good coverage of the receivers and the QB throws to the RB in the flat or a short route who then gains 4-6 yards, is that an efficient use of a down relative to a long incompletion?  Now it's 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 6. vs 2nd and 10.

The Bills didn't suffer from moving the chains tho, they were 5th in the league in first downs generated w one fewer game... First downs per game top 3

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I did miss that, I agree w most of this

 

Except I don't believe Davis's production gets better w fewer targets but the offense would benefit from having a more capable second option obviously

 

I'm trying to think who it was, but someone (maybe Cover1?) did a deep-dive into Gabe Davis targets.

 

The conclusion, as I recall, is that a lot of his targets were essentially deep throw-aways, not catchable balls.  Then there were the picks thrown in Davis direction - 6 last season, 2 in 2021.

 

So yeah, if some of those are re-distributed to the slot or the RB, even if Davis has as much trouble with drops as he did last season, Davis production (I guess depending upon how you define production?) should improve.

 

To give some perspective, we're talking about like 2 targets per game.  Davis was targeted on average 6 times per game last season.  In 2021 and 2020, he was targeted 4 times per game. 

 

In 2020 and 2021, Beasley was targeted 7 times per game.  In 2022, McKenzie was targeted 4.33 times per game and Crowder in the 4 games he played, 3.25, so they combined to track with Beasley's targets.  But after Crowder was injured, no one picked up the slack.  Shakir 1.4 targets/ game. 

 

Knox target share also decreased by about half a target per game between 2022 and 2021.

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

It depends on the RB in question, right?  I mean, the SB era Bills used to target Thurman Thomas a lot and I recall it being a damned efficient use of a down.

 

If there is good coverage of the receivers and the QB throws to the RB in the flat or a short route who then gains 4-6 yards, is that an efficient use of a down relative to a long incompletion?  Now it's 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 6. vs 2nd and 10.

I think this problem is part of a bigger issue with Allen.   Now, before everyone gets upset, I'm not saying Allen is a problem.   I think the issue with Allen is how does he get from being a great player, truly great, to being an elite NFL quarterback.  I don't think he's there yet.  

 

One principal difference between Allen and the truly elite QBs is that Allen still has not learned to take the sure good play over the possible great play.   Allen's operating rules, in order, seem to be (1) get a great play, (2) get a good play, (3) get positive yardage, (4) avoid negative plays, (5) avoid turnovers.   Maybe not exactly that, but something like that.   Tom Brady got to be the GOAT by having operating rules in the exact opposite order.   That is (1) no turnovers, (2) no negative plays, (3) get something, (4) get a chunk, (5 get a home run.  

 

People hated it when Jauron (and others) say, " a punt is a good play."  Brady understood that.  He would throw an incompletion on third down to avoid a possible INT.  Allen still throws the INT.   

 

So, yes, you're right about easy completions to the back.  Take the 4-6 yards, maybe the back breaks it for more, maybe not, go back to the huddle and call another play.   Allen's great at taking the chunk plays and the home runs when they're there, and he definitely should continue.  But if he's going to be an elite QB, he needs to stop taking a shot for a chunk or TD when it's a jump ball; he needs to take the sure positive yardage and still have another play to get the first down.   

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The Bills didn't suffer from moving the chains tho, they were 5th in the league in first downs generated w one fewer game... First downs per game top 3

 

They didn't suffer from moving the chains until they did.  The post you're responding to starts with a response to @GunnerBill detailing situations where the Bills failed to move the chains at all in situations where even a single 1st down would mean points.  Getting 6 yards from the RB on 1st down instead of 3 straight deep incompletions could make a difference there, not?

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Meaning no offense, Gunner, but if you're speaking of the Bills 3 losses last season, I don't think you can call all 3 of them examples of some "psychological closing issue". 

 

 

I didn't. I said linked to the psychological closing issue which was just the OP's term. We had trouble "closing" in the redzone and trouble "closing" at the end of games. It was the closing bit I was really linking too although accept my wording was ambiguous. 

 

Well I accepted there might be a mental element I was clear what I put the pattern more down to - pass protection crumbling in pressure situations.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

They didn't suffer from moving the chains until they did.  The post you're responding to starts with a response to @GunnerBill detailing situations where the Bills failed to move the chains at all in situations where even a single 1st down would mean points.  Getting 6 yards from the RB on 1st down instead of 3 straight deep incompletions could make a difference there, not?

I don't know what this means

 

Every team has situations where a first down would mean points. The Bills were better at getting first downs than the vast majority of the league, so I don't see that as an issue. Likewise their third down conversion rate, which was league best in 2022, kind of invalidates the idea that they struggled w down/distance.

 

Philosophically I am generally in favor of deeper passes because they are +EV over shorter completions and run plays

 

The idea that the offense was some inefficient, inconsistent mess w Dorsey is a fabrication, and that's born out statistically

If there are two areas to address in the offense imo they are clearly 1 redzone efficiency and 2 Allen needs more attempts and gross overall pass yardage

 

outside that the rest is noise tbh

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm trying to think who it was, but someone (maybe Cover1?) did a deep-dive into Gabe Davis targets.

 

The conclusion, as I recall, is that a lot of his targets were essentially deep throw-aways, not catchable balls.  Then there were the picks thrown in Davis direction - 6 last season, 2 in 2021.

 

So yeah, if some of those are re-distributed to the slot or the RB, even if Davis has as much trouble with drops as he did last season, Davis production (I guess depending upon how you define production?) should improve.

 

To give some perspective, we're talking about like 2 targets per game.  Davis was targeted on average 6 times per game last season.  In 2021 and 2020, he was targeted 4 times per game. 

 

In 2020 and 2021, Beasley was targeted 7 times per game.  In 2022, McKenzie was targeted 4.33 times per game and Crowder in the 4 games he played, 3.25, so they combined to track with Beasley's targets.  But after Crowder was injured, no one picked up the slack.  Shakir 1.4 targets/ game. 

 

Knox target share also decreased by about half a target per game between 2022 and 2021.

Nice analysis.  And with targets down for all these guys, and no increase in targets for the backs, it means the defense knows that Diggs is going to be the focus.  Just throwing the ball to the open receivers and backs will make life easier for Diggs. 

 

Kincaid should help.  I really like the idea of running two tight ends with Kincaid in the slot.  Obviously, he is not going to blister people with changes of direction like Beasley did, but he's going to present other problems.  For one thing, he'll be a bigger problem than Beas just running straight upfield, simply because he's a bigger target.  He is, by all reports, a great hands catcher, so Allen can throw high to Kincaid, something he couldn't do with Beas.  If Kincaid learns his reads properly, running upfield from the slot can be like taking candy from a baby, because the TE almost always has either an in cut or an out cut. 

 

The other thing that has to happen, as people have been saying, is to get the ball to Cook, and Hines, in the flat.   Just throw the ball out there, take the completion, and force the defense to make the play.  Get a block from a wideout, or leak Brown out to the right and get a block.   Just do it, whether it works a lot or not.  Let defenses see it on film and know that they have to commit attention to the short flat or someone will break off a big one.   Even with defenses paying attention, it can be a source of easy positive yardage.  

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

I generally agree. Playoffs is a different animal. Teams are going to sell out to stop your #1 weapon. That's why you need 2 weapons in today's NFL.

 

If a D sells out to stop Diggs, there's no reason Gabe (or any real #2) shouldn't consistently torch the defense.

 

Imo the problem is Gabe only able to create separation on deep routes. 

 

Commit the resources to shutting down Diggs, cheat towards guarding against deep stuff on Gabes side, force him to beat you on short stuff (which he can't). 

 

Diggs also needs to step it up but IMO Dorsey didn't do him any favors this year.

 

Bottom line we were too 1dimemsional. If you don't have to sweat a run game, aren't worried about a #2 hurting you, aren't getting any pressure from the slot, you're gunna have some success

 

That's why we were so much better with Beasley.  In that playoff game vs. KC, "13 Seconds," the only two WRs that did anything were Davis and Beasley.  Beasley ate up the underneath routes and Davis did the deep work.  

 

Agree with you largely on Davis, he's more of an Alvin Harper/Tony Martin/James Lofton/Vincent Jackson type.  

 

I'm not sure that works as a #2 although it has in the past, but those teams also had effective underneath guys, which is what we've been missing since they cut Beasley.  

 

It's much easier to take two guys away when there's nothing else than it is to take both the top 2 split guys away with an effective underneath guy.  

 

That's on both Dorsey and Beane.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

That's why we were so much better with Beasley.  In that playoff game vs. KC, "13 Seconds," the only two WRs that did anything were Davis and Beasley.  Beasley ate up the underneath routes and Davis did the deep work.  

 

Agree with you largely on Davis, he's more of an Alvin Harper/Tony Martin/James Lofton/Vincent Jackson type.  

 

I'm not sure that works as a #2 although it has in the past, but those teams also had effective underneath guys, which is what we've been missing since they cut Beasley.  

 

It's much easier to take two guys away when there's nothing else than it is to take both the top 2 split guys away with an effective underneath guy.  

 

That's on both Dorsey and Beane.  

 

 

Agree, but I think Beane's done his job.  He has a variety of talent that can play the true slot, Beasley style, and he has Kincaid.  He also has Cook and Hines.  

 

That's why I think it's on Dorsey and Allen. 

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

That's why we were so much better with Beasley.  In that playoff game vs. KC, "13 Seconds," the only two WRs that did anything were Davis and Beasley.  Beasley ate up the underneath routes and Davis did the deep work.  

 

Agree with you largely on Davis, he's more of an Alvin Harper/Tony Martin/James Lofton/Vincent Jackson type.  

 

I'm not sure that works as a #2 although it has in the past, but those teams also had effective underneath guys, which is what we've been missing since they cut Beasley.  

 

It's much easier to take two guys away when there's nothing else than it is to take both the top 2 split guys away with an effective underneath guy.  

 

That's on both Dorsey and Beane.  

 

 

We weren't better with Beasley 

 

Last year's offense under Dorsey was better than the previous year under Daboll 

[PBF81]

32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We weren't better with Beasley 

 

Last year's offense under Dorsey was better than the previous year under Daboll 

 

We had fewer Yards, fewer Points Scored, by nearly 2/game.  Fewer 1st-Downs by nearly 2/game.  Fewer passing yards, one less passing TD.  More TOs & FLs.  

 

Not sure how that's all better.  

 

In the playoffs our production dropped from 41.5 PPG and 26 1st-Downs to 22 PPG and 22 1st-Downs.  

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by PBF81

[SoCal Deek]

The problem with Davis, at least last year, is that he dropped the ball a lot in crucial situations. I’m hoping he’s gotten over that. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

We had fewer Yards, fewer Points Scored, by nearly 2/game.  Fewer 1st-Downs by nearly 2/game.  Fewer passing yards, one less passing TD.  More TOs & FLs.  

 

Not sure how that's all better.  

 

In the playoffs our production dropped from 41.5 PPG and 26 1st-Downs to 22 PPG and 22 1st-Downs.  

 

 

incorrect

 

2021 YPG: 381.9

2022 YPG: 397.6

 

2021 PPG: 28.41

2022 PPG: 28.43

 

that's regular season totals obviously, playoffs will be better in 2021 as Allen went on one of the best postseason runs in NFL history...but I think regular season totals are more representative of how the offense a whole functioned over the course of the season

 

2022 was better, and against better competition.

 

2021 yards/play 5.7, 10th in the league

 

2022 yards/play 6.1, 2nd in the league

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The problem with Davis, at least last year, is that he dropped the ball a lot in crucial situations. I’m hoping he’s gotten over that. 

 

It's very important to separate the narrative on Davis with the truth.  

 

"He drops too many passes" has been overplayed.  Sure, he drops some balls, but he also makes some spectacular huge play catches.  He and Beasley were singlehandely responsible for all but bringing us to the Super Bowl in '21.  

 

Last season, he had only two drops in games that we lost.  One was that 20-17 Jets loss, but Diggs also had a drop in the same game, and that was Allen's 2nd worst game in the last three seasons.  

 

The other was the Vikes game, but I find it difficult to blame Davis when he had 93 yards and a TD, to Diggs' 128 yards and no TD, and when the D stunk the joint up.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

2021 netYPA passing: 6.1

2022 netYPA passing: 6.8

 

2021 YPA rush: 4.8

2022 YPA rush: 5.2

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

It's very important to separate the narrative on Davis with the truth.  

 

"He drops too many passes" has been overplayed.  Sure, he drops some balls, but he also makes some spectacular huge play catches.  He and Beasley were singlehandely responsible for all but bringing us to the Super Bowl in '21.  

 

Last season, he had only two drops in games that we lost.  One was that 20-17 Jets loss, but Diggs also had a drop in the same game, and that was Allen's 2nd worst game in the last three seasons.  

 

The other was the Vikes game, but I find it difficult to blame Davis when he had 93 yards and a TD, to Diggs' 128 yards and no TD, and when the D stunk the joint up.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

I happened to see a replay of the Ravens game on NFL Network a couple of weeks ago. We won the game but Davis dropped numerous passes. Saying that it only hurts us when we lose is one way to evaluate players but I’m not sure the coaching staff would agree with you. 

[GoBills808]

Josh Allen specific stats

 

2021 comp%: 63.3

2022 comp% :63.3

 

2021 ANY/A: 6.31

2022 ANY/A: 6.99

2021 pass YPG: 259.2

2022 pass YPG: 267.7

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

incorrect

 

2021 YPG: 381.9

2022 YPG: 397.6

 

2021 PPG: 28.41

2022 PPG: 28.43

 

that's regular season totals obviously, playoffs will be better in 2021 as Allen went on one of the best postseason runs in NFL history...but I think regular season totals are more representative of how the offense a whole functioned over the course of the season

 

2022 was better, and against better competition.

 

2021 yards/play 5.7, 10th in the league

 

2022 yards/play 6.1, 2nd in the league

 

 

You are correct, I was using totals, I forgot we only played 16 games last season. 

 

Either way, I'm not seeing a pronounced difference, but my point has always been that our issues are not in the regular season, but in the playoffs.  Which is true.  

 

My points on the playoff offense stand, firmly.  We'll see if it changes this season.  But I know of no fan that would prefer being ranked #1 across the board going 14-3, and losing in the divisional round, over being ranked in the top-5 or even 10 everywhere, going 10-7, getting a wild-card and winning the Super Bowl.  

 

I will say, if we continue our playoff underperformance this season, I honestly don't know how people cannot point to McD, regardless of how they want it addressed.  

 

And back to the original point, Allen was best when Beasley was there for him.  We've never effectively replaced Beasley who was among the best in that role.  

 

And if we get that slot guy, Davis will be more effective at what he does.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

team offense specific stats

 

2021 3rd down conversion%: 47.33

2022 3rd down conversion%: 50.23

 

think i already did netYPP but surprise 2022 was better lol

 

there's overwhelming evidence that 2022 offense was superior to 2021

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

You are correct, I was using totals, I forgot we only played 16 games last season. 

 

Either way, I'm not seeing a pronounced difference, but my point has always been that our issues are not in the regular season, but in the playoffs.  Which is true.  

 

My points on the playoff offense stand, firmly.  We'll see if it changes this season.  But I know of no fan that would prefer being ranked #1 across the board going 14-3, and losing in the divisional round, over being ranked in the top-5 or even 10 everywhere, going 10-7, getting a wild-card and winning the Super Bowl.  

 

I will say, if we continue our playoff underperformance this season, I honestly don't know how people cannot point to McD, regardless of how they want it addressed.  

 

And back to the original point, Allen was best when Beasley was there for him.  We've never effectively replaced Beasley who was among the best in that role.  

 

And if we get that slot guy, Davis will be more effective at what he does.  

 

 

this is a totally different conversation

 

obviously I would prefer a Super Bowl and my thoughts on McDermott have been made already

[WideNine]

There is some value to looking at the entire season, but last year I felt the Bills' play was just less dominant down the stretch.

 

I am not alone I think in that feeling that the stretch run for the Bills felt exhausting.

 

The defense could not get off the field and the Offense seemed to do pretty well in their first scripted drive, but would struggle padding leads in the first half.

 

If you look at our 2022 defense 3rd down efficiency 38% made, and 4th down 58% made. It was quite an uptick from the prior year and supports the observations of our defense allowing more extended drives by opposing teams.

 

Teams were patient and content to work their way slowly down the field eat clock and keep Allen and the offense cooling their heels on the sidelines.

 

The Bengals started nearly an entire patchwork OL of backups and they manhandled our defensive front.

 

The lack of dominant play down the stretch led to a lot more nail-biters and late game heroics.

 

There were plenty of other factors including our turnover differential that went from +6 in 2020, +8 in 2021, to 0 in 2022.

 

Admittedly KC was sitting at -3 and that did not tank their season and one really bad game can skew the metric.

 

But for the Bills there was a combination of less opportunistic defense forcing turnovers and our offense turning the ball over more frequently.

 

Allen's elbow made shorter timing throws harder and the fact that Saffold was a turn stile and Brown excelled at getting burnt on the edge made any on schedule passing plays difficult.

 

Daboll found a lot of creatuve ways to punch the ball over the line, but Dorsey and the offense seemed to be stymied in the red zone with a rash of uncharacteristic Allen turnovers in the front half of the season. 

 

Teams seemed to have found better ways of defending the RZ against our offensive personnel packages and alignment tendencies particularly after our game with Green Bay.

 

It is always a chess match and a copycat league. Hoping that we have the right defensive personnel to get better at getting off the field and closing the door on teams when we are nursing a lead.

 

Hoping we have better luck on the injury front and Dorsey takes a big step forward game planning and leading the offense.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by WideNine

[PBF81]

19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I happened to see a replay of the Ravens game on NFL Network a couple of weeks ago. We won the game but Davis dropped numerous passes. Saying that it only hurts us when we lose is one way to evaluate players but I’m not sure the coaching staff would agree with you. 

 

I'm going to discount Davis' rookie season, and even then it's hardly fair to compare him to Diggs who's been in his 7th and 8th seasons in the league the past two seasons.  

 

Allow me to ask, how many drops in playoff games has Davis had over the past two seasons?  
 

How many drops in playoff games has Diggs had in the same past two seasons?    

 

Apart from those games, how many Yards and TDs have both had in their other playoff games in '21 and '22?  
 

Which of the two has performed better for us in our last four playoff games in 2021 and 2022?  

 

After reviewing that and posting it, let me know which of the two has been more valuable come playoff time.  Clearly Allen figures into it as well as he decides where his balls get thrown.  

 

 

12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

there's overwhelming evidence that 2022 offense was superior to 2021

this is a totally different conversation

 

obviously I would prefer a Super Bowl and my thoughts on McDermott have been made already

 

I wouldn't say overwhelming at all.  The differences in rankings are marginal if not negligibile.  ... except in the playoffs, where we were notably worse.  It's obvious that our playoff offense was far better in '21 than it was last season in '22.  You won't find anyone to reasonably argue to the contrary.  Just scour the articles after our loss to Cincy.  We can make excuses and provide reasons, but that's the way it was.  

 

Either way, I don't think that it's a different conversation given that the way the team plays in the playoffs is the complete opposite of the way it plays during the season.  

 

I can't speak for everyone although I know I speak for many when I say that between the playoffs and regular season, I couldn't care less about the regular season considering that we're locks for at least a wild-card with Allen at QB.  I much prefer that the team shows up in January, when it matters.  And the team includes coaching, which potentially cost us a Super Bowl win, likely so even.  

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by PBF81

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I'm going to discount Davis' rookie season, and even then it's hardly fair to compare him to Diggs who's been in his 7th and 8th seasons in the league the past two seasons.  

 

Allow me to ask, how many drops in playoff games has Davis had over the past two seasons?  
 

How many drops in playoff games has Diggs had in the same past two seasons?    

 

Apart from those games, how many Yards and TDs have both had in their other playoff games in '21 and '22?  
 

Which of the two has performed better for us in our last four playoff games in 2021 and 2022?  

 

After reviewing that and posting it, let me know which of the two has been more valuable come playoff time.  Clearly Allen figures into it as well as he decides where his balls get thrown.  

 

 

 

I wouldn't say overwhelming at all.  It's obvious that our playoff offense was far better in '21 than it was last season in '22.  You won't find anyone to reasonably argue to the contrary.  Just scour the articles after our loss to Cincy.  We can make excuses and provide reasons, but that's the way it was.  

 

Either way, I don't think that it's a different conversation given that the way the team plays in the playoffs is the complete opposite of the way it plays during the season.  

 

I can't speak for everyone although I know I speak for many when I say that between the playoffs and regular season, I couldn't care less about the regular season considering that we're locks for at least a wild-card with Allen at QB.  I much prefer that the team shows up in January, when it matters.  And the team includes coaching, which potentially cost us a Super Bowl win, likely so even.  

 

 

I mean yes lol if you had said up from that 2021 PLAYOFF offense was better than 2022 I would have agreed...because 2021 playoffs was one of the best offensive performances in NFL history😂😂😂

 

But people are talking about 2022 regular season vs 2021 and they don't have any evidence except how 'it looked' 

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I mean yes lol if you had said up from that 2021 PLAYOFF offense was better than 2022 I would have agreed...because 2021 playoffs was one of the best offensive performances in NFL history😂😂😂

 

But people are talking about 2022 regular season vs 2021 and they don't have any evidence except how 'it looked' 

 

What I'm saying is who cares about regular season rankings.  If we're going to look at it like that, then we need to look at a bunch of other data as well.  Like the fact that we had 11 of 16 games last season with 23 or fewer 1st-Downs, whereas in '21 we had only 8 of 17 games with 23 or fewer 1st-Downs.  ... as merely one item.   I'd also be willing to bet that we played notably weaker pass defenses last season as well than we did the year prior.  

 

But you're trying to take fractions of a PPG or a ranking or two, maybe three overall seem like a big deal.  

 

We're going to have more YPP for instance without an effective "slot"/Beasley type, that's common sense.  But then we shouldn't complain about dropped passes on deep balls because no viable short-threat ever developed, and when Dorsey was too obtuse to get Hines involved, who's an exceptional short-yardage receiving option.  

 

BTW, after a quick glance, of the 16 regular season games we played, 8 of them had passing defenses ranked 23rd or worst, that's half our regular season schedule against teams with passing Ds in the bottom quartile.  

 

And that doesn't mean that the rest were great, only three (Jets (twice), the Ravens, and Browns) were in the top-10.   

 

I'm not sure I'd be beating my breasts yodeling over that.  

 

Having said all that, I firmly believe that we have the offense in place to dominate the league in offense this season if it's coached properly, and if it isn't the best, then 90% (or so) of the reason will have been poor coaching.  

 

In fact, I am in the camp that says that everything is there for us to have one of the most prolific offenses of all time, in the league, not just franchise history.  

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by PBF81

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

What I'm saying is who cares about regular season rankings.  If we're going to look at it like that, then we need to look at a bunch of other data as well.  Like the fact that we had 11 of 16 games last season with 23 or fewer 1st-Downs, whereas in '21 we had only 8 of 17 games with 23 or fewer 1st-Downs.  ... as merely one item.   I'd also be willing to bet that we played notably weaker pass defenses last season as well than we did the year prior.  

 

But you're trying to take fractions of a PPG or a ranking or two, maybe three overall seem like a big deal.  

 

We're going to have more YPP for instance without an effective "slot"/Beasley type, that's common sense.  But then we shouldn't complain about dropped passes on deep balls because no viable short-threat ever developed, and when Dorsey was too obtuse to get Hines involved, who's an exceptional short-yardage receiving option.  

 

BTW, after a quick glance, of the 16 regular season games we played, 8 of them had passing defenses ranked 23rd or worst, that's half our regular season schedule against teams with passing Ds in the bottom quartile.  

 

And that doesn't mean that the rest were great, only three (Jets (twice), the Ravens, and Browns) were in the top-10.   

 

I'm not sure I'd be beating my breasts yodeling over that.  

 

 

Yeah again...all I said was 2022 offense was better than 2021. If you want to call that yodeling go right on ahead