Receiving concerns on offense

[Jerry Jabber]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Good enough, but who would that guy be? 
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

Sort by WR and pick your guy

 

The Cold Hard Fiscal Facts seem to be that once you're paying a QB, a top WR, and a couple top OLman, you probably don't have the cap $$ to splurge on top talent in FA. 

 

It might be worth noting that as a FA signing for 1 yr/$6M, Sanders played 14 reg. season games and contributed 44.7 ypg, 5 targets and 3 receptions a game (58.3%).  He had a high Y/R of 14.9 and 3 drops (4.2%). 

 

Gabe Davis played 15 reg season games and contributed 55.7 ypg, 6 targets and 3 receptions a game (51.6%).  He had an even higher Y/R of 17.4 and 9 drops (9.7%).  Obviously the drops are very concerning, but I don't think the low catch % was entirely on Davis

 

And looked at as ROI, I'm not sure we got our money's worth for $6M from Sanders.
I've said elsewhere that I'm skeptical about our 2nd biggest FA splurge, Deonte Harty, being a good use of money. 

 

Anyway have a look, I'm not sold on our signing of Deonte Harty, but I'm also not sold on the ROI per investment for a bunch of those FA.  Who would you consider a good ROI and a better option at #2?

 

Your last line though puzzles me.  Last season, the Chiefs top receiver was a TE - Kelce of course.  Who are the Chiefs "three good WR"?  Tiktok Boy is decent.  MVS has always been a bit of a disappointment IMHO.  Who's the 3rd?  And do you really see TikTok Boy as an $8M step-up on Davis?

"The Cold Hard Fiscal Facts seem to be that once you're paying a QB, a top WR, and a couple top OLman, you probably don't have the cap $$ to splurge on top talent in FA." Yet the Bills just spent $7M on Leonard Floyd. How much capital have the Bills spent on the D-line over the years, only for it to falter in the playoffs? 1st Rounders: Oliver, Rousseau; 2nd Rounders: Basham, Epeneza; FA's: Miller, Phillips, Lawson, Settle, Jones, etc. 

 

This is very accurate about Gabe Davis from Patrick Peterson ""I was on Gabe Davis, and I could show you in my notes the routes that Gabe Davis runs: posts, digs, slants occasionally." Vikings' Patrick Peterson called his game-winning OT interception of Josh Allen: 'I am going to go pick this' - CBSSports.com. As a #2 WR, you have to be able to run all the routes in the route tree, Davis can only run three routes effectively. When your #1 WR is being taken out of the game due to double coverage, your #2 WR has to step up and make plays. In the Bengals playoff game, the Bengals double covered Diggs and limited to 4 catches for 35 yards, while Gabe Davis had 2 catches for 34 yards. 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

The Chiefs won two Superbowls in four years, plus the Bengals whooped the Bills 27-10 in the playoffs. Bills also haven’t been able to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. Just stating the facts.

We have literally played the Chiefs one time in the playoffs
 

All of the regular season games lately have been going to the bills

 

I know it’s the off-season, but let’s not inflate the numbers

[WyoAZBillfan]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

We have literally played the Chiefs one time in the playoffs
 

All of the regular season games lately have been going to the bills

 

I know it’s the off-season, but let’s not inflate the numbers

Twice actually. 

[Jerry Jabber]

9 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

We have literally played the Chiefs one time in the playoffs
 

All of the regular season games lately have been going to the bills

 

I know it’s the off-season, but let’s not inflate the numbers

Guess you either just started watching the Bills or have short term memory.

 

AFC Championship Game, Jan 2021.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401220401

 

AFC Playoffs, Jan 2022:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401326633

Edited June 12, 2023 by Jerry Jabber

[Tanoros]

3 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

IMO, the Bills have a #1 Diggs, #3 (but being used as a #2), Davis, but the rest of the WR’s are lower level WR’s. Sorry, but I have a hard time seeing these guys beat teams like the Bengals and Chiefs in the playoffs, especially after seeing the Bills only score ten points in the playoff game against the Bengals this past January.

Your right about the depth they have for sure, which isn’t much. I was just correcting your statement that the Bills DONT expect Kincaid to be the starting slot wr from day 1. He appears to be competing with a few guys for that role and there is a good chance (this season atleast) we see a healthy rotation out of the slot. 

 

I get your sentiments about the Bengals playoff game, it sucked, but that game wasn’t who the Bills were last season. They just happened to have a horrible game in the playoffs. The Bills are quite capable (in my opinion) of beating anyone. Now if the o-line is improved, we should also see the offense looking better for that reason alone (let’s also not act like our offense was bad last year. Room for improvement, sure, but bad, no way!). 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

Davis was not as bad as everyone claims. He actually has solid #2 WR numbers. 836 yards and 7 TD's. He had some drops, but he can overcome that.

 

Davis had "some drops"?? 

 

In other news Rodger Saffold "had *some* poor games". 

 

Davis lead NFL WR in drop % and was second in total drops by a WR.

 

With 9 drops in only 93 targets......Gabe was basically outright DROPPING catchable balls on 1 of every 10 passes Allen threw to him.

 

Overall........he was 186th out of 197 players in catch % at 51.6%........and everyone that was worse than him had a fraction of the targets he had. 

 

He was the worst high volume receiver in the entire NFL at coming down with passes. 

 

[MJS]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Davis had "some drops"?? 

 

In other news Rodger Saffold "had *some* poor games". 

 

Davis lead NFL WR in drop % and was second in total drops by a WR.

 

With 9 drops in only 93 targets......Gabe was basically outright DROPPING catchable balls on 1 of every 10 passes Allen threw to him.

 

Overall........he was 186th out of 197 players in catch % at 51.6%........and everyone that was worse than him had a fraction of the targets he had. 

 

He was the worst high volume receiver in the entire NFL at coming down with passes. 

Yep. He has room to improve.

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, MJS said:

Davis was not as bad as everyone claims. He actually has solid #2 WR numbers. 836 yards and 7 TD's. He had some drops, but he can overcome that.

 

With the other additions, I think the receiving room is more talented and has a wider variety of skills and body types.

 

Yes, bringing in another legit receiver would have been helpful, but I think Beane still did well.

It might be good season stats if you spread them out over a full season. Unfortunately Davis had 3 of his top 4 games in the first 6 weeks of the season where he also had 57% of his TDs and 46% of his yards. He wasn't there when we needed him.

 

[John from Riverside]

43 minutes ago, MJS said:

Yep. He has room to improve.

I don’t think anybody can really defend the drops. Gabe Davis had way too many however, I don’t feel like he had that many of the year previously so it could just be a one time thing or not.

[billsfan89]

I think It is a legitimate concern to think the Bills need more firepower at pass catcher. Now It isn’t like the Bills did not do anything to address this issue. Kincaid was the teams first round pick and the best TE in the draft according to most and the Bills spent a 5th rounder on shorter although he is more a developmental player.

 

The Bills also replaced Mac and Kumerow with Hardy and Sheffield while not earth shattering Is a minor upgrade at the back end of WR. I also think having Hines the entire season will add some pass catching value. 
 

But if Kincaid is not having a major impact, Davis struggles to be a consistent WR2, Shakir doesn’t develop and they can’t find production elsewhere then a lot of the same issues from 2022 can rear their ugly heads.

 

I think the team knows they might need another weapon out there which is why they are reportedly in on Hopkins and likely could also add a player at the trade deadline in season too. 

[Process]

4 hours ago, MJS said:

Davis was not as bad as everyone claims. He actually has solid #2 WR numbers. 836 yards and 7 TD's. He had some drops, but he can overcome that.

 

With the other additions, I think the receiving room is more talented and has a wider variety of skills and body types.

 

Yes, bringing in another legit receiver would have been helpful, but I think Beane still did well.

Numbers are absolutely meaningless. The Bills basically used three receivers total last year. In a pass heavy offense. With a top 2 gunslinging QB. 

 

Of course the WR2 is going to put up numbers, due to volume alone. 

[Dan in Owego]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Davis had "some drops"?? 

 

In other news Rodger Saffold "had *some* poor games". 

 

Davis lead NFL WR in drop % and was second in total drops by a WR.

 

With 9 drops in only 93 targets......Gabe was basically outright DROPPING catchable balls on 1 of every 10 passes Allen threw to him.

 

Overall........he was 186th out of 197 players in catch % at 51.6%........and everyone that was worse than him had a fraction of the targets he had. 

 

He was the worst high volume receiver in the entire NFL at coming down with passes. 

 

Could be what the doctor ordered, plus it might look pretty cool

[Robert Paulson]

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

We have literally played the Chiefs one time in the playoffs
 

All of the regular season games lately have been going to the bills

 

I know it’s the off-season, but let’s not inflate the numbers

You should ban yourself from posting for a week for missing basic facts.

Bills lost AFC Championship in 2020 and AFC Division round in 2021 to the Chiefs. 

And they lost the 2020 regular season game to them as well in Buffalo.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Ethan in Cleveland

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

It might be good season stats if you spread them out over a full season. Unfortunately Davis had 3 of his top 4 games in the first 6 weeks of the season where he also had 57% of his TDs and 46% of his yards. He wasn't there when we needed him.

 

You conviently forgot he injured his ankle in week 4 or 5. Perhaps that has something to do with it.

[Dan in Owego]

31 minutes ago, Dan in Owego said:

Could be what the doctor ordered, plus it might look pretty cool

Trying to remember didn't Stallworth wear prescription goggles as well?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Bills made a huge move at WR by replacing the coach, that cannot be overlooked.

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, Fleezoid said:

Who are you receiving these concerns from?

 

A concerned fan.  

 

 

6 hours ago, TBBills Fan said:

The football gods of course.....

 

You do not pray to them?

 

They do not answer you back?

 

For many, they pray to the receiving god on game days after having too many Blues, Genny's, or other alcohol.  

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

6 hours ago, Fleezoid said:

Who are you receiving these concerns from?

From his subordinates out in the field …

[Process]

51 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

You conviently forgot he injured his ankle in week 4 or 5. Perhaps that has something to do with it.

He injured his ankle in practice before Week 2

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, MPT said:

 

I think Davis's stats are a little misleading when people are debating whether he's a #2 or not (and of course people's definition of a #2). He makes his hay on long routes where he only has to make one move and beat one guy. Fully 1/8 of those stats you mentioned came on one play last year. To me, a #2 can run a full route tree with effectiveness and doesn't drop routine throws. They might not be able to beat double coverage but they can still separate at all levels of the field. Davis doesn't have that reliability in those aspects.

 

People don't realize the extent to which Davis was open but Allen went to Diggs instead.  I noticed this while watching a handful of videos that people here posted along with some others that spun off of that.  

 

Davis can't help it if Allen doesn't throw to him.  Also, of the 12 catches he had on 3rd-down, all 12 went for a 1st-Down and averaged 24.8 yards.  On 3rd-and-long he converted 8 of those.  

 

He easily could have also had the 1,200+ yards that Diggs had.  People are way to hard on him.  Not to mention, he seems to be the only one that isn't widely recognized as having had an injury, an ankle injury to boot.  

 

 

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

If Dorsey does his job, and players (Josh, especially) stay healthy, this should be a dynamic passing attack.  

 

THAT right there!  

 

Unfortunately, the talent we have really doesn't have much to do with that.  Dorsey's got more than almost all other OCs have at their disposal when Allen's factored into the mix.  

 

The talent isn't the issue this season.  

 

If Dorsey pulls his head out of his a$$ this could easily be the best offense in team history and be #1 in the league, perhaps by a decent margin.  

 

 

[Don Otreply]

7 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

While I’m glad to see the Bills try and address the O-line, I’m not sure they’ve done enough to give Josh good/quality targets. IMO, going in the season with Gabe Davis as the #2 WR is a mistake. Davis underperformed last season as he struggled with drops and contested catches. I feel Davis is a better #3WR than the #2 WR. 
 

Trusting a rookie TE to be your slot guy is a huge risk. Would rather see a veteran WR in that position while they break Kincaid into that role.
 

I’m interested in seeing how the Bills use Harty and Sherfield, but neither guy has had eye-popping stats. 
 

If there are no further upgrades to the WR group going into the season, I have concerns about the WR’s outside of Diggs. 

Its nice that you have concerns, anything else you want to get off your chest?

[Buffalo Boy]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

He had some drops, but he can overcome that.

   Imagine having a #2 who didn’t HAVE to overcompensate me drops.

   Shakir has much better hands but unless Diggs schooled the heck out of him this off-season he’s not ready either.

   

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Robert Paulson said:

 

 

 

Or...........

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

7 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

While I’m glad to see the Bills try and address the O-line, I’m not sure they’ve done enough to give Josh good/quality targets. IMO, going in the season with Gabe Davis as the #2 WR is a mistake. Davis underperformed last season as he struggled with drops and contested catches. I feel Davis is a better #3WR than the #2 WR. 
 

Trusting a rookie TE to be your slot guy is a huge risk. Would rather see a veteran WR in that position while they break Kincaid into that role.
 

I’m interested in seeing how the Bills use Harty and Sherfield, but neither guy has had eye-popping stats. 
 

If there are no further upgrades to the WR group going into the season, I have concerns about the WR’s outside of Diggs. 

They don’t have the money anymore they used their restructuring on Floyd DHOP wants money the Bills don’t have it.

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

"Big Game Gabe" had 2 receptions for 34 yards against the Bengals in the playoffs last year. 

 

Betting on a rookie to make an immediate impact is always very risky! 

 

How many did $96M man Diggs have? 

 

I'll help ya out.  He had 35 yards on 4 catches and a 40.0% catch %.  

 

Davis made $1M, had 34 yards on 2 catches, 50.0% catch%, and both went for 1st-Downs.  

 

Last season in the playoffs, $1M Davis had 8 catches for 147 Yards, and a catch % of 61.5%.  

 

Last season in the playoffs, $96M Diggs had 11 catches for 149 Yards, and a catch % of 57.9%.  

 

6 of Davis' 8 catches went for 1st-Downs.  Davis had 1 TD.  

 

6 of Diggs' 11 catches went for 1st-Downs.  Diggs had 0 TDs.  

 

When that's broken down per dollar paid, ... 

 

NOW, let's compare the last 2 seasons of playoffs.  First last year, then combined.  

 

In the 2021 playoffs Davis had 10 catches for 242 Yards, and a catch % of 76.9%.  

 

In the 2021 playoffs Diggs had 6 catches for 67 Yards, and a catch % of 60.0%  

 

Only 2 of Diggs' 6 catches went for 1st-Downs.  Diggs had 0 TDs.  

 

5 of Davis' 10 catches went for 1st-Downs, 5 of Davis' catches went for TDs.  

 

In both of the last two seasons playoffs combined ...  

 

Diggs had 17 catches for 216 Yards, and a catch % of 58.6%  

 

Davis had 18 catches for 389 Yards, and a catch % of 69.2%  

 

Of Diggs 17 catches, 8 went for 1st-Downs, 0 went for TDs.  

 

Of Davis 18 catches, 11 went for 1st-Downs, 6 went for TDs.  

 

There's absolutely no comparison in the playoffs.  Our problem has been in the playoffs, not the regular season.  

 

This season Davis makes $3M contrasted with Diggs' 4-year $96M contract.  

 

Sorry, but in the playoffs, for my money, I'm going with Davis.  And let's skip the Davis only did what he did because of Diggs routine.  Diggs didn't outperform Dais anywhere in the playoffs the past two seasons.  No matter how it's sliced, our moneyman Diggs has come up drastically short in the playoffs for what he's getting paid.    

 

But to your other point, rookie TEs in particular rarely do much.  If he goes over 500 Yards and 5 TDs it will end up having been a spectacular season for him comparatively speaking.  It'd be foolish to think that he'll be the difference.  

 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by PBF81

[Einstein's Dog]

34 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

THAT right there!  

 

Unfortunately, the talent we have really doesn't have much to do with that.  Dorsey's got more than almost all other OCs have at their disposal when Allen's factored into the mix.  

 

The talent isn't the issue this season.  

 

If Dorsey pulls his head out of his a$$ this could easily be the best offense in team history and be #1 in the league, perhaps by a decent margin.  

 

How does Dorsey have more than these:

     J Chase/Higgins/Boyd

     K Allen/M Williams/ (Q Johnson)/A Ekeler

     D Adams/H Renfrow/J Meyers

     Hill/Waddle

 

I know you said when Allen is factored in, but that is accounting for a large factor because the Bills WRs aren't on those levels.  Many of us wanted an upgrade of WR so that Dorsey would have an advantage.

[GreggTX]

Bottom line: If Diggs goes down, we're in really bad shape. Hopefully Gabe has a good year, but none of the other WR's on this roster are starting caliber. We'd be playing with a bunch of backups. That won't work if we're trying to win a SB. As it stands now, other teams will still double up on Diggs all day and we currently have no answer. We need DHop or a trade for a good WR.

 

[Eastport bills]

5 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

"Big Game Gabe" had 2 receptions for 34 yards against the Bengals in the playoffs last year. 

 

Betting on a rookie to make an immediate impact is always very risky! 

You can’t blame Davis for the Cinn game. Plenty of blame to go around in the low point of Josh’s career. Diggs did nothing, and the O-line got pushed around. Josh had his worst game in 3 seasons. Gabe had 18 receptions for just about 400 yds with 6 TDs and 2drops ,26 targets. in 4 games 2021 and 2022. If that’s not production from a # 3 in 2021(Beasley,Sanders ahead of Gabe on depth chart) and #2 in 2022. You will see Gabe get paid like a top #2 after this year.

[BigAl2526]

6 hours ago, jkeerie said:

In my opinion, there were two main problems with last year's offense:  1.  The offensive line and 2.  Isaiah Mckenzie.  We've improved the offensive line...at least the quality of players.  Getting rid of McKenzie is addition by subtraction.   He could not be relied upon and, I believe cost us points.

Davis and Shakir both had an unacceptable drop percentage.  I'm not on the "dump Davis" bandwagon but drops need to be addressed and fixed.

Edited June 13, 2023 by BigAl2526

[PBF81]

42 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

How does Dorsey have more than these:

     J Chase/Higgins/Boyd

     K Allen/M Williams/ (Q Johnson)/A Ekeler

     D Adams/H Renfrow/J Meyers

     Hill/Waddle

 

I know you said when Allen is factored in, but that is accounting for a large factor because the Bills WRs aren't on those levels.  Many of us wanted an upgrade of WR so that Dorsey would have an advantage.

 

Well, I did say "more than almost all."  So there's that.  The Bengals were one of my exceptions.  

 

Secondly, considering that Tagavailoa, Herbert, and Carr (or Garoppolo if you want to use this year) are the QBs on those other teams, that's hardly insignificant.   

 

Would you rather have one of those three QBs and their WRs?  I wouldn't.  

 

My reference was as to what Dorsey, not Allen, has at his disposal.  Allen is, almost indisputably, the most athleticly gifted QB in the league.  They need to protect him more, which is another well-known story, but that regardless.  

 

I find it a little bit odd that every offseason the mantra is that Allen doesn't have the tools.  Then going into every season he does.  Then at the end of the season he doesn't again.  And yet, the people making those decisions are experts and need to be trusted.  Something's not adding up.  

 

Also, we may not end up having the best OL in the league, I doubt it'll be much into the top-10, but it's the best OL that McD's had on his watch.  Kincaid's been raved about by everyone.  We added several WRs via both FA and the Draft. 

 

We don't use our RBs, much less Hines out of the backfield, like McD said he would when we traded for him.  He averaged nearly 60 catches, 20 1st-Downs, and 400 Yards/season with Indy.  In 9 games here he had 5 catches, 3 1st-Downs, and 53 yards, a pace of about 10 catches for 100 yards and 6 1st-Downs per season, a small fraction of what he did in Indy, which is why they wanted him ironically, or at least what they stated.  

 

That's all on Dorsey and before him Daboll despite how everyone seems to think he's some kind of god, and despite leading the Giants to the 16th Scoring and 18th Yardage Offense last season, his best ever w/o Allen and even better than his first two seasons here with Allen.  Daboll was horrible, absolutely horrible in 8 prior seasons as an OC including his first two here.  

 

At the end of the day, and despite the lack of willingness of many to accept even the possibility, the possibility does exist that coaching is what's holding this team back.  

 

I'm of the opinion that at the end of this season the favored narrative on McD, and quite possibly Beane, are going to be entirely different than they are now, and not favorable for them.  Obviously I hope that's not the case, that we go to the Super Bowl and win, but if not, when are we going to start addressing the coaching situation rather than constantly blaming the talent, and just by the way, without including Beane in on that "talent" discussion.  

 

Many teams have done more with notably less offensive talent.  

 

I also happen to think that Diggs, Mr. Playoffs-No-Show, is overrated.  Finally got that out.  LOL  The guy hasn't even been our best WR in the playoffs, not even close.  How does that happen for a the most expensive player on the team after Allen.  

 

 

51 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Bottom line: If Diggs goes down, we're in really bad shape. Hopefully Gabe has a good year, but none of the other WR's on this roster are starting caliber. We'd be playing with a bunch of backups. That won't work if we're trying to win a SB. As it stands now, other teams will still double up on Diggs all day and we currently have no answer. We need DHop or a trade for a good WR.

 

 

If Dorsey can figure out what RBs are, and how to spread the ball out and use high-percentage plays, with Allen we'd be fine.  Maybe not #1 or #2 offense fine, but a good OC/HC should be able to figure out how to make that offense without Diggs go.  

 

Using your RBs for balance cannot be stressed enough.  This lame argument that RBs aren't used today is nonsense to the extent that it's applied here in Buffalo.  I don't think that people understand, by a country mile we were the worst team in the league in the utilization of RBs.  

 

 

[PBF81]

20 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

You can’t blame Davis for the Cinn game. Plenty of blame to go around in the low point of Josh’s career. Diggs did nothing, and the O-line got pushed around. Josh had his worst game in 3 seasons. Gabe had 18 receptions for just about 400 yds with 6 TDs and 2drops ,26 targets. in 4 games 2021 and 2022. If that’s not production from a # 3 in 2021(Beasley,Sanders ahead of Gabe on depth chart) and #2 in 2022. You will see Gabe get paid like a top #2 after this year.

 

If he's not paid here, the 24-year old will be paid elsewhere and he'll shine.  He was only 23 last season for the love of football.  He runs low-percentage routes and his catch % in that way is not far out of line with his peers.  I've outlined this before citing the data.  

 

He's outperformed most of the WRs drafted ahead of him in his draft class and has scored more TDs than all but Jefferson, and tying Lamb, both of whom were drafted in the 1st round.  Sometimes I think people think that he was a 1st or 2nd round draft pick.  He was a mid-4th round pick.  

 

 

17 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

Davis and Shakir both had an unacceptable drop percentage.  I'm not on the "dump Davis" bandwagon but drops need to be addressed and fixed.

 

That's not true in the playoffs.  Did you check out the playoff stats that I provided?  

 

Without Davis' performance in our playoffs, that "13 Seconds" game is like the one the year prior, or an even worse lopsided loss.  

 

In the Miami playoff game this season, without his TD and 113 Yards (66.7% catch %) we lose that game too despite anything that Diggs did.  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If he's not paid here, the 24-year old will be paid elsewhere and he'll shine.  He was only 23 last season for the love of football.  He runs low-percentage routes and his catch % in that way is not far out of line with his peers.  I've outlined this before citing the data.  

 

He's outperformed most of the WRs drafted ahead of him in his draft class and has scored more TDs than all but Jefferson, and tying Lamb, both of whom were drafted in the 1st round.  Sometimes I think people think that he was a 1st or 2nd round draft pick.  He was a mid-4th round pick.  

 

 

 

 

Gabe Davis was 186th in catch % in the NFL last season.........he lead NFL WR in drop % and was second in overall drops among WR to the more heavily targeted Zay "Drop Zone" Jones.

 

But the near exact comp for Davis is Marquez Valdes-Scantling...........you'd be hard pressed to find 2 players at any position who are so close in style and performance in the NFL.

 

And not surprisingly MVS was 185th in catch %.

 

MVS is settled in as a 3rd option receiving target in the NFL.........his free agent contract signed last offseason was 3 years $30M..........that's the market for that level of talent.

 

So if Gabe doesn't sign with the Bills........yeah, obviously he will sign with another team.........you aren't saying anything by saying that..........but you seem to be presuming that he's going to get "paid" a $90M-$100M contract or something.    That ain't happening if it's more of the same this season.   

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Gabe Davis was 186th in catch % in the NFL last season.........he lead NFL WR in drop % and was second in overall drops among WR to the more heavily targeted Zay "Drop Zone" Jones.

 

But the near exact comp for Davis is Marquez Valdes-Scantling...........you'd be hard pressed to find 2 players at any position who are so close in style and performance in the NFL.

 

And not surprisingly MVS was 185th in catch %.

 

MVS is settled in as a 3rd option receiving target in the NFL.........his free agent contract signed last offseason was 3 years $30M..........that's the market for that level of talent.

 

So if Gabe doesn't sign with the Bills........yeah, obviously he will sign with another team.........you aren't saying anything by saying that..........but you seem to be presuming that he's going to get "paid" a $90M-$100M contract or something.    That ain't happening if it's more of the same this season.   

 

Comparing him to a slot receiver or a short (read higher percentage receiver) is bad analysis.  

 

AJ Brown ranked 149th in catch %.  Should the Eagles think about moving on from him too?  If Davis had gotten the same percentage more targets as Brown got, at his catch % and YPR he'd have finished with 1,303 Yards, 11 TDs, and 55 1st-Downs, which would have been good for 9th, 3rd, and 15th in the league.  AND Davis is 2 years younger than Brown.  

 

That potential is obviously there, and using the same rates, catch % included, as he now has.  I don't think that anyone would be willing to let him walk if he hit those numbers.  I suspect he'll do better this season and instead of getting a reasonable deal, we'll have made keeping him far more expensive if not impossible.   

 

I did this, here for the forum, but if you take a look at the WRs that have his YPR average or close, you'll find the WRs that run similar routes, typically medium to long.  Let's face it, when have you seen Davis run a short out or a screen or something, doesn't happen.  

 

Anyway, if you want to be fair to him, look at the WRs (with a qualified number of catches that is, you choose but be reasonable) that are among the top in YPR.  Then compare their catch %.  He's still a little low, but a little low, and playing on an ankle injury to boot.  

 

Also, I don't understand two things.  First, he was 23 this past season.  23!  For other players that seems to matter in their favor, but not for him.  

 

Secondly, he had a nagging ankle injury for much of the season.  Same there.  People cut Brown, White, Miller, etc. "injury slack," but not Davis.  

 

It seems that the narrative on him has been cemented with little hope for him breaking it other than a standout season.  He seems to be the whipping boy for the offense.  

 

Also, don't forget the fact of the playoffs stats that I provided.  Were you able to look at those above?  

 

He was also 2nd in the league in YPR, which is where you'll find his peers, 49th in 1st Downs, 40th among WRs in 1st-Downs.  On a fraction of the catches.  

 

And people here want to cast that talent overboard.  I don't get it.  I simply cannot fathom that.  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Comparing him to a slot receiver or a short (read higher percentage receiver) is bad analysis.  

 

AJ Brown ranked 149th in catch %.  Should the Eagles think about moving on from him too?  If Davis had gotten the same percentage more targets as Brown got, at his catch % and YPR he'd have finished with 1,303 Yards, 11 TDs, and 55 1st-Downs, which would have been good for 9th, 3rd, and 15th in the league.  AND Davis is 2 years younger than Brown.  

 

That potential is obviously there, and using the same rates, catch % included, as he now has.  I don't think that anyone would be willing to let him walk if he hit those numbers.  I suspect he'll do better this season and instead of getting a reasonable deal, we'll have made keeping him far more expensive if not impossible.   

 

I did this, here for the forum, but if you take a look at the WRs that have his YPR average or close, you'll find the WRs that run similar routes, typically medium to long.  Let's face it, when have you seen Davis run a short out or a screen or something, doesn't happen.  

 

Anyway, if you want to be fair to him, look at the WRs (with a qualified number of catches that is, you choose but be reasonable) that are among the top in YPR.  Then compare their catch %.  He's still a little low, but a little low, and playing on an ankle injury to boot.  

 

Also, I don't understand two things.  First, he was 23 this past season.  23!  For other players that seems to matter in their favor, but not for him.  

 

Secondly, he had a nagging ankle injury for much of the season.  Same there.  People cut Brown, White, Miller, etc. "injury slack," but not Davis.  

 

It seems that the narrative on him has been cemented with little hope for him breaking it other than a standout season.  He seems to be the whipping boy for the offense.  

 

Also, don't forget the fact of the playoffs stats that I provided.  Were you able to look at those above?  

 

He was also 2nd in the league in YPR, which is where you'll find his peers, 49th in 1st Downs, 40th among WRs in 1st-Downs.  On a fraction of the catches.  

 

And people here want to cast that talent overboard.  I don't get it.  I simply cannot fathom that.  

 

 

 

 

If you don't know that MVS is a tall boundary receiver who specializes in deep routes and produces very high yards per catch and very low catch% you don't know your NFL players.    He's been doing the same thing for years.   Which did you think he was?   A slot receiver or a "short" receiver? 

 

AJ Brown is a 61% catch rate guy..........he and Gabriel Davis aren't comps at all.    An utterly ridiculous comparison by you.   The drop-off to Gabe's 52% catch rate is precipitous.   Brown had just a 3.4% drop rate.   Gabe had a ridiculous 9.7% drop rate. 

 

The potential to be a superstar like AJ Brown is not obvious.   It's really not.      

 

As for his ankle injuries........he's had them in all 3 seasons.    Sprained ankle/foot Gabe is regular Gabe.   That's him until he has a season where it's not.

 

As for "playoff Gabe"........he's had 3 excellent playoff games and 3 bad ones.   His great game in KC was at the expense of a very depleted KC secondary.   That's what Gabe needs.......matchups against 3rd, 4th or 5th CB options.   Combine that with Allen's arm and that is the potential for big plays.    Last season however, without the depth at WR they'd had in the past, opposing teams were able to put CB1 and CB2 on Gabe and he wasn't up to the task against that level of CB talent.  

 

They get in his pocket and he can't shake them.............and his suspect hands and inexplicable "clapping" technique make it very difficult for him to win contested catch situations.   He needs to be running free, deep with those long strides against marginal NFL CB's to really be in his comfort zone.

[PBF81]

31 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you don't know that MVS is a tall boundary receiver who specializes in deep routes and produces very high yards per catch and very low catch% you don't know your NFL players.    He's been doing the same thing for years.   Which did you think he was?   A slot receiver or a "short" receiver? 

 

AJ Brown is a 61% catch rate guy..........he and Gabriel Davis aren't comps at all.    An utterly ridiculous comparison by you.   The drop-off to Gabe's 52% catch rate is precipitous.   Brown had just a 3.4% drop rate.   Gabe had a ridiculous 9.7% drop rate. 

 

The potential to be a superstar like AJ Brown is not obvious.   It's really not.      

 

As for his ankle injuries........he's had them in all 3 seasons.    Sprained ankle/foot Gabe is regular Gabe.   That's him until he has a season where it's not.

 

As for "playoff Gabe"........he's had 3 excellent playoff games and 3 bad ones.   His great game in KC was at the expense of a very depleted KC secondary.   That's what Gabe needs.......matchups against 3rd, 4th or 5th CB options.   Combine that with Allen's arm and that is the potential for big plays.    Last season however, without the depth at WR they'd had in the past, opposing teams were able to put CB1 and CB2 on Gabe and he wasn't up to the task against that level of CB talent.  

 

They get in his pocket and he can't shake them.............and his suspect hands and inexplicable "clapping" technique make it very difficult for him to win contested catch situations.   He needs to be running free, deep with those long strides against marginal NFL CB's to really be in his comfort zone.

 

I wasn't comparing Brown & Davis as similar WRs, I was comparing their stats relative to opportunities.  If it seemed that way I didn't mean it.  

 

Everyone ragging a on Davis would be equivalent to saying that Shakir sucks and will never be good.  Huw do we know, he's never had the targets.

 

Based upon the straight line oops tho, Davis got a fraction of the chances that other top WRS got.  

 

So start there, you can't possibly ignore that in good faith.  

 

Brown also isn't a slot WR either.

 

Way to leapfrog his 149th ranking in the sole metric you used to make a point.  All I did was turn it on it's head.  

 

What's good for the goose...

 

Also, way to ignore a bunch of incredibly relevant days otherwise.  You're better than that.  

 

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by PBF81

[Success]

I think I may be the biggest detractor to the "we need another receiver" argument.

 

I mean, just look at NFL history.  Depth at the receiver position prevails more often than not.  The idea that you need a 1A and 1B or something like that just isn't consistent w/ the teams that actually win titles.

 

And Allen will have a TON to work w/ this year.  Harty & Sherfield are both upgrades, and Kincaid has a crazy high ceiling and should be open 24x7.  Watch how much our pass game improves w/ Allen having both a little more time in the pocket, and a real running game.

 

[billybrew1]

11 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

While I’m glad to see the Bills try and address the O-line, I’m not sure they’ve done enough to give Josh good/quality targets. IMO, going in the season with Gabe Davis as the #2 WR is a mistake. Davis underperformed last season as he struggled with drops and contested catches. I feel Davis is a better #3WR than the #2 WR. 
 

Trusting a rookie TE to be your slot guy is a huge risk. Would rather see a veteran WR in that position while they break Kincaid into that role.
 

I’m interested in seeing how the Bills use Harty and Sherfield, but neither guy has had eye-popping stats. 
 

If there are no further upgrades to the WR group going into the season, I have concerns about the WR’s outside of Diggs. 

Yes, we have absolutely no idea whether we have a legit #2 WR ot not; plain & simple.

However, I think we’re fine in the slot with Kincaid and Shakir…..and the rest.

iIt is far harder getting open coming off the LOS like a #2 or #4 WR has to….

I think we should get another WR to enhance our SB chances significantly….

We also lack speed so a burner would be good to add to the corps….

[ProcessTruster]

18 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

While I’m glad to see the Bills try and address the O-line, I’m not sure they’ve done enough to give Josh good/quality targets. IMO, going in the season with Gabe Davis as the #2 WR is a mistake. Davis underperformed last season as he struggled with drops and contested catches. I feel Davis is a better #3WR than the #2 WR. 
 

Trusting a rookie TE to be your slot guy is a huge risk. Would rather see a veteran WR in that position while they break Kincaid into that role.
 

I’m interested in seeing how the Bills use Harty and Sherfield, but neither guy has had eye-popping stats. 
 

If there are no further upgrades to the WR group going into the season, I have concerns about the WR’s outside of Diggs. 

No concerns at all.   Bills are loaded this year.