Dalton Kincaid stats this year

[Freddie's Dead]

Rookie TE, under McD, he'll likely be babied and underutilized.  I'll go 40 catches, 450 yards, 4 TD's.

[Freddie's Dead]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

No it’s not. His 1st round picks are Tre White, Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Gregg Rousseau, Kaiir Elam.

All but Elam had major roles as rookies. Oliver lost his starting position to Jordan Phillips as the year went on but was still a major part of the defense. Phillips was just playing out of his mind that year.

 

So his history is 1/6 1st round picks not having a major role as a rookie. Elam probably doesn’t start much at all if it weren’t for injuries.

 

 

In each of those cases, the Bills did not have a starter clearly ahead of the first round pick.  No way Reuben starts ahead of Dawesome.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 hours ago, Herc11 said:

 

I didn't say 1st rd picks. I said rookies. Tre and Tremaine were the only ones in your list that was put in and a full time starter. And that's cause there wasn't another legitimate choice. Allen who was prematurely put in. 

 

Oliver, Rousseau, Basham, Epenesa, and more were not full time starters. They were platoon players that had to earn more snaps as their rookie years went on.

 

 

McDermott is not starting Kincaid over Knox on day 1 barring injury. Kincaid will have to earn his playing time. That's just how McDermott coaches unless he has no choice.

Kincaid and Knox don’t play the same position!

 

They are completely different roles. Kincaid is competing for targets and snaps against Harty and Sherfield.

Rousseau started from day 1 and Oliver started from day 1. And you know the Bills rotate DL by design. Both players were huge contributors year 1. 
 

You can’t say McDernott slow plays rookies. Half of his 2nd rounders were huge year 1 contributors. Zay Jones, Dion Dawkins, and Cody Ford. Epenesa, Basham, and Cook were spot players. Cooks role increased.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[L Ron Burgundy]

6 hours ago, WMDman said:

Knox

Davis.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

10 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Davis.  

Davis had a career year last year. People that wanted Dorsey to get more out of Knox and Davis are asking Dorsey to do something Daboll also couldn’t do.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[John from Riverside]

7 hours ago, Dan in Owego said:

Want some thoughts on projection of numbers on our number one pick. I am bullish on him for some obvious reasons, and admittedly some homerish reasons as well. 

 

750 yards

8 touchdowns

Any one want to take an early June shot at this?

 

I would be thrilled with that production, especially if it meant opening up things for other receiving options on the field
 

Josh being able to throw over the middle of the field again we’re totally open up this office in other places

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I'd put the over/under at 450 yards and 4 TDs

 

1) As a general rule NFL rookie TEs do not produce big numbers, even the 1st round picks 

 

2) He's almost guaranteed to be the TE2 for us and will be competing with a lot of guys for targets

 

3) McD is hard on rookies. 1 fumble/mistake will see him benched for multiple games

I think 450 is a good over/under.

 

If the Bills decide to use him as TE2 then they’re making a mistake with his ability and he will take longer to develop with more on his plate. He was drafted to play what the Bills call F position. Knox is the Y TE that will do all the things we know a traditional TE does.

 

On McDermott being hard on rookies you’re likely thinking about Cook fumbling. Cook had other issues that Allen wasn’t trusting Cook. We see the fumble but there’s more than that. Kind of like with Elam. We see  a CB that should be playing more but he’s making mistakes in practice that’s keeping him off the field.

 

Allen will have to be comfortable with Kincaid. If Kincaid and Allen are on the same page then a fumble won’t get him benched for weeks.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Capco]

47 catches
621 yards
6 TDs

And one good crack block for Cook on his way to the endzone.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

51 catches

485 yards

4TDs

 

This would average 3 catches a game for 9.5 yards per catch...both those seem plausible to me. 

 

The 4TDs may look low, however in the red zone the Bills seem to (at least on paper right now) have a lot of ways to get in the end zone. Harris and Murray may provide a much needed red zone running game, Knox will likely get a few red zone looks and Diggs is deadly in that part of the field as well. Throw in Allen running a few in from short and there may not be many more red zone TDs to go around. 

[That's No Moon]

9 hours ago, Dan in Owego said:

Want some thoughts on projection of numbers on our number one pick. I am bullish on him for some obvious reasons, and admittedly some homerish reasons as well. 

 

750 yards

8 touchdowns

Any one want to take an early June shot at this?

 

26 catches 312 yards 3TDs

[Don Otreply]

8 hours ago, Dan in Owego said:

Actually we have all the years in Carolina with Shula who is on our staff, ran a whole bunch of 12 personal 

Topic was mede to be a fun exercise, obviously no one here knows the future🙄 upside though is if you hit people actually may think you know something lol

Iirc KD wasn’t calling any plays in Carolina, wasn’t he an assistant QB coach / quality control kinda guy back then? 

 

As to the question at hand, 650 ish yards 7 ish TDs

[PBF81]

9 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

212 catches 

 

2648 yards

 

33 TDs

 

7 kickoff return TDs

 

4 rushing tds

 

125 yards passing 

 

3 passing TDs

 

ROFLMAO!!

 

AND the Wing Eating champion!

 

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by PBF81

[Don Otreply]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

ROFLMAO!!

 

AND the Wing Eating champion!

 

 

Dipped in Blue cheese only, 🤣

[blacklabel]

They usually bring the rookies along slowly but I think Kincaid has a chance to see more playing time than most Bills rookies due to them wanting to have as many weapons out there as they can. 

 

I'd guess something like 35 receptions for 550 yards and 4 or 5 TDs. 

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Dipped in Blue cheese only, 🤣

 

Is there another choice!  

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, blacklabel said:

They usually bring the rookies along slowly.

I think I’m the only one that follows the Bills. 1st round picks play. That’s why Elam not playing much is concerning.

[TampaBillsJunkie]

I'm having Charles Clay flashbacks. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

For the people.

 

We’re still going to be 11 personnel offense meaning Kincaid will operate as the slot WR mostly. So we’ll have 12 personnel grouping on the field but actually still running our 11 personnel offense.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BarleyNY]

58 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

They usually bring the rookies along slowly but I think Kincaid has a chance to see more playing time than most Bills rookies due to them wanting to have as many weapons out there as they can. 

 

I'd guess something like 35 receptions for 550 yards and 4 or 5 TDs. 

That’d almost certainly put him in the top 10 players for yards per catch. 

[That's No Moon]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

For the people.

 

We’re still going to be 11 personnel offense meaning Kincaid will operate as the slot WR mostly. So we’ll have 12 personnel grouping on the field but actually still running our 11 personnel offense.

 

 

So he's not so much a small TE as he is a slow WR. Got it.

[KDIGGZ]

He won't even be on the field for more than a handful of plays per game the entire first half of the season. Anyone who thinks he has more than 500 yards receiving is dreaming. My hope is that they will use him as a RedZone target and that's where his value will come from. His stats will probably be like 325 yards receiving but hopefully 5 or more TD's and hopefully some flashes so there's something to build on for next year. But don't count on it. Check Shakir's stats from last year if you want to get an idea of how they value rookie pass catchers on this team 

[wppete]

6 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Rookie TE, under McD, he'll likely be babied and underutilized.  I'll go 40 catches, 450 yards, 4 TD's.

I don’t understand why McDermott babies his draft picks. You drafted them, especially in the top 3 rounds then let them play! 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

So he's not so much a small TE as he is a slow WR. Got it.

Nope. Call him a route runner. I won’t say he can read defense yet until I see him do it be NFL defense but he’s a smooth route runner. Probably comes in as our 2nd best route runner and hands already.

 

 

4 minutes ago, wppete said:

I don’t understand why McDermott babies his draft picks. You drafted them, especially in the top 3 rounds then let them play! 

He does. 

[That's No Moon]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Nope. Call him a route runner. I won’t say he can read defense yet until I see him do it be NFL defense but he’s a smooth route runner. Probably comes in as our 2nd best route runner and hands already.

Yeah, we will see.

[wppete]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

He does. 

He does? I guess I missed it. Elam, Cook, Bernard? 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I’m seeing a lot of talk about McDermott not playing rookies. The rookies in question are Elam, Cook, Epenesa, Basham, Bernard, and Moss I’m guessing.

 

It’s actually more on Brandon Beane. They’re drafting a lot of the same positions earlier in the draft. 3 RB’s in the 1st 3 rounds in 4 years. 3 DE’s in the 1st 2 rounds in 2 years. These guys all competing against each other for snaps. Bernard had no path to snaps as a rookie without injury. 
 

Elam struggling to beat out other young recent draft picks also. Dane Jackson 2020 draft pick and Benford 2022 draft pick. Benford playing over Elam as a rookie kind of ruins the argument against McDermott.

I guess we could say they did it again Kincaid when we have Knox already. We’ll see how they use them. The plan seems to be to use Kincaid more flexed out rather than traditional TE. But the possibility is there that Kincaid becomes a depth player as some fear.

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Bobby Hooks]

Regular season:

 

499 yards 

 

7tds (I think he’ll get a lot of red zone opportunities) 

 

Playoffs: all bets are off 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Bobby Hooks

[Irv]

He'll get 33 QB pressures, 14 TFL's, and at least 7 sacks.  No doubt.

[Simon Says]

11 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why? Who should’ve had more catches and didn’t? There’s zero basis for this argument. 
 

Hines? Hines was a late in season addition who’s been a backup RB his entire career.

"Who should have but didn't?" is an odd question because they are gone;  Beasley,   Brown and McKenzie. 

Kincaid isnt guaranteed to start, or to  necessarily replace all their targets and receptions. 

I see him as a backup TE, an occasional TE 2 in some sets, but not the regular starting "slot receiver." I think Bills will move him to  r

 create  mismatches but he won't play every down and his usage could vary by opponent.

Hard to predict stats but I hope he has quality production as needed.

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, FireChans said:

31 catches, 375 yards, 1 TD. 

I’ll bet the over on all 3.  My $200 to your $50

 

didn’t think so. 
 

🧌 

[RoyBatty is alive]

11 hours ago, Process said:

Are you drunk?

 

Dorsey has been an OC one year. We have zero history to go off of as far as how he will use two TEs. That was my point, we have no idea. 

Are you obsessed?

 

Your point was to bash Dorsey, first response to a positive themed Kincaid thread and you pivot and knee jerk to turn it into a  to Dorsey bashing.

[NewEra]

If he plays 70%+ of the snaps:

86-886-8

 

if they try and get Harty and Sherfield a decent share of reps and Kincaid plays <60%: 68- 688- 6

 

Hall of Fame 

 

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

He won't even be on the field for more than a handful of plays per game the entire first half of the season. Anyone who thinks he has more than 500 yards receiving is dreaming. My hope is that they will use him as a RedZone target and that's where his value will come from. His stats will probably be like 325 yards receiving but hopefully 5 or more TD's and hopefully some flashes so there's something to build on for next year. But don't count on it. Check Shakir's stats from last year if you want to get an idea of how they value rookie pass catchers on this team 

Yes, because they will absolutely view a guy they liked enough to move up in the 1st round exactly the same as they do a guy they landed in the 5th round. Brilliant.

[RoyBatty is alive]

9 touchdowns, 589 yards.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

22 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yes, because they will absolutely view a guy they liked enough to move up in the 1st round exactly the same as they do a guy they landed in the 5th round. Brilliant.

I’m not defending his comments but they actually needed CBs last year. Traded up for Elam and only played Elam due to injury. But it’s not an argument against McDermott playing rookies because Benford would’ve had a major role if it weren’t for his injury.

40 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

"Who should have but didn't?" is an odd question because they are gone;  Beasley,   Brown and McKenzie. 

Kincaid isnt guaranteed to start, or to  necessarily replace all their targets and receptions. 

I see him as a backup TE, an occasional TE 2 in some sets, but not the regular starting "slot receiver." I think Bills will move him to  r

 create  mismatches but he won't play every down and his usage could vary by opponent.

Hard to predict stats but I hope he has quality production as needed.

The right answer is no one had a down year under Ken Dorsey. Gabe Davis and McKenzie had career years. Diggs, Knox, and Singletary had their usual years.

 

If Kincaid is used as Knox’s backup then this is a Beane problem again not a coaching problem. There would be a clear disconnect between front office and coaching. 

 

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BuffaloBillyG]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m not defending his comments but they actually needed CBs last year. Traded up for Elam and only played Elam due to injury. But it’s not an argument against McDermott playing rookies because Benford would’ve had a major role if it weren’t for his injury.

The right answer is no one had a down year under Ken Dorsey. Gabe Davis and McKenzie had career years. Diggs, Knox, and Singletary had their usual years.

 

If Kincaid is used as Knox’s backup then this is a Beane problem again not a coaching problem. There would be a clear disconnect between front office and coaching. 

 

 

I get where you are going but to say the only played Elam due to injury is flat out incorrect. While Benford did start he and Elam were in a pretty tight rotation early in the year. Elam was also seeing plenty of reps in the playoffs. 

 

The reason for that is well known. Benford was just more ready as he came in with a background for the zone defense whereas Elam is more press and had more to learn. Elam's ceiling was and remains much higher than Benford which is why he was selected. 

[KDIGGZ]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yes, because they will absolutely view a guy they liked enough to move up in the 1st round exactly the same as they do a guy they landed in the 5th round. Brilliant.

You mean like when they drafted a CB in round 1 last year who played less than their 6th round CB and a previous 7th round CB?

[FireChans]

53 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’ll bet the over on all 3.  My $200 to your $50

 

didn’t think so. 
 

🧌 

You didn’t let me respond!

If he doesn’t hit the over on all three, I win 200? That’s easy money lol

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, Herc11 said:

McDermott is not starting Kincaid over Knox on day 1 barring injury. Kincaid will have to earn his playing time. That's just how McDermott coaches unless he has no choice.

 

Well first of all, Kincaid isn't ever going to be "starting over Knox." They will have different roles in the offense. Kincaid is going to be the starting big slot from day one.

 

As for earning his playing time, he is reportedly already earning 1st team reps and a decent target share from Allen in OTAs. He isn't going to platoon as a rookie, he is going to have a substantial role in the offense from day one.

[julian]

A significant factor in why TEs usually take a year or two to pop is the difficulty in learning how to pass/run block at the NFL level. Hard enough to learn how to beat NFL defenses as a rookie TE in the passing game as it is.
 

 If the Bills take much of that off his plate by essentially utilizing him as a slot receiver and combining that with being dropped into an elite passing offense with Josh Allen as his QB… then you can be a little more enthusiastic about Kincaid’s chances of bucking the trend year one.