12 of 32 2020 5th yr options picked up. Bills 100% since 2017

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Saint Doug said:

Correct. It’s really unclear how picking up a 5th year contract is a sign of successful drafting. It very well could be a sign of not being able to cut your loses or a poor use of available salary cap. Sometimes it’s cheaper to sign these players for less than the going rate of the 5th year option. 

Nahh, I think it's a pretty strong indicator that you're at least drafting starting-quality players with your first round draft picks and not wasting them on silly things like Guards, RBs and off-ball Linebackers.  Maybe a better indicator is players who get contract extensions...  

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Of note:

 

Some of those declined options are very related to the fact that the players do not play premium positions.   

 

A player doesn't have to reach his potential by year 3 for a team to pick up his 5th year option..............but if he hasn't yet........the potential cap hit better be reasonable for that position.

 

Exactly, especially for Guards and off-ball linebackers, who, for fifth-year option salary purposes, are lumped with offensive tackles and edge-rushing linebackers, respectively.  You could argue that that's really a system flaw, but still...

[Matt_In_NH]

Mike Mayock on the other hand is 100% in first round picks not getting to their 3rd year.

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

100% correct. Beane has not had a 1st rounder bust. People can question whether Tremaine ever fulfilled his full potential and can ask the same with Ed but they are both, unquestionably, good NFL players. 

 

If only his record on day 2 was as good. I think Beane has been one of the best round 1 drafters and one of the best day 3 drafters. His day two record...

 

Harrison Phillips (never a starter and walked after 1 contract)

Cody Ford (never nailed a starting role and traded after 3 seasons)

Devin Singletary (starter but walked after 1 contract)

Dawson Knox (good starter, re-signed to a second contract)

AJ Epenesa (never been more than a rotational player going into contract year)

Zack Moss (traded away early in 3rd year)

Boogie Basham (still buried on the depth chart going into year 3)

Spencer Brown (starter who showed some flashes as a rookie, bad second season, going into vital 3rd year)

 

Won't breakdown Cook and Bernard as 1 year probably isn't sufficient to take a view but it's a poor record with Dawson Knox the one success story. 

Interesting observation about Day 2.   The data set is too small to draw conclusions, but it sure looks like you're correct about this.  I have a theory:

 

McBeane have been very clear that they want to draft only guys who are personality and character fits - growth mindset, fiercely competitive, team oriented, etc.  I've always thought the draft breaks down nicely along the same lines as the days of the draft - first round you have guys who are high probability starters, second and third round you have guys who should be starters but are lower probability, and fourth round and beyond you have guys who are good enough to have a shot but it's a crap shoot as far as who will make it and who won't.   

 

I think that the McBeane approach works best in the first round and on day three.  It works in the first round because the only way guys become sure fire starters (first-round) talent is by having the McBeane character.   You don't find guys in the first round who blow off practice or go partying or whatever.   Just about all of those guys have been weeded out.   So, Beane is picking from the full range of guys who are available because they all pass the character test.  On day three it works because by then the truly elite talent is gone and what's left are a lot of guys, all of whom have more or less similar physical gifts.   Among guys like that, McBeane's character-first approach gives them a higher yield, because those guys will do EVERYTHING they have to do to make it.  

 

On day two, it's different.  Day two guys are guys that the coaches really like, if only they could get them to do something more or something different.   Maybe it's just get them to work harder.   Maybe it's learn to play in space.  Maybe it's to get more focused on football.  So, for some of these players, it's really learn to be dedicated like McBeane players are dedicated.  But Beane won't take those, because their whole system is that they only want guys who already are dedicated like that.  That would limit Beane's yield in two ways.  First, it means Beane is passing on some high-end talent that just needs to grow up a bit.  Some of those guys grow up, but not with the Bills.  Second, it means the guys Beane takes in the second are guys who already are doing everything they can think of to get better.   So, compared to the guys Beane doesn't take, they have lower ceilings.   What we all fear is that Bernard is a good example of that - a guy who was doing everything right already just isn't going to be able to step up another level.   If he could, he would have gone in round 1.  

 

It's a bias that favors the Little Engine that Could.  In round six, the Little Engine that Could is a good strategy.  In round three, not so much.  

 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Interesting observation about Day 2.   The data set is too small to draw conclusions, but it sure looks like you're correct about this.  I have a theory:

 

McBeane have been very clear that they want to draft only guys who are personality and character fits - growth mindset, fiercely competitive, team oriented, etc.  I've always thought the draft breaks down nicely along the same lines as the days of the draft - first round you have guys who are high probability starters, second and third round you have guys who should be starters but are lower probability, and fourth round and beyond you have guys who are good enough to have a shot but it's a crap shoot as far as who will make it and who won't.   

 

I think that the McBeane approach works best in the first round and on day three.  It works in the first round because the only way guys become sure fire starters (first-round) talent is by having the McBeane character.   You don't find guys in the first round who blow off practice or go partying or whatever.   Just about all of those guys have been weeded out.   So, Beane is picking from the full range of guys who are available because they all pass the character test.  On day three it works because by then the truly elite talent is gone and what's left are a lot of guys, all of whom have more or less similar physical gifts.   Among guys like that, McBeane's character-first approach gives them a higher yield, because those guys will do EVERYTHING they have to do to make it.  

 

On day two, it's different.  Day two guys are guys that the coaches really like, if only they could get them to do something more or something different.   Maybe it's just get them to work harder.   Maybe it's learn to play in space.  Maybe it's to get more focused on football.  So, for some of these players, it's really learn to be dedicated like McBeane players are dedicated.  But Beane won't take those, because their whole system is that they only want guys who already are dedicated like that.  That would limit Beane's yield in two ways.  First, it means Beane is passing on some high-end talent that just needs to grow up a bit.  Some of those guys grow up, but not with the Bills.  Second, it means the guys Beane takes in the second are guys who already are doing everything they can think of to get better.   So, compared to the guys Beane doesn't take, they have lower ceilings.   What we all fear is that Bernard is a good example of that - a guy who was doing everything right already just isn't going to be able to step up another level.   If he could, he would have gone in round 1.  

 

It's a bias that favors the Little Engine that Could.  In round six, the Little Engine that Could is a good strategy.  In round three, not so much.  

 

 

There is definitely something in this. Day 2 is either the higher ceiling guys with flags (some of those may just be about rawness of their game some will be off field issues) or it is the safe higher floor, low ceiling guys who are a bit more lunch pail. Given those choices Beane's preference has generally been for the latter. In fact Knox and Spencer Brown are probably the two "swings" they have taken on day 2. Generally they have taken safer guys. 

 

I'm not sure Bernard would ever have gone in round 1 though. I didn't look at him pre-draft, admittedly, but I did watch some of him post draft and pre-season and there was nothing there that blew me away in any facet of his game. I think that one might just be that they whiffed. Boogie was a whiff too. I think they thought he was a swing for the fences guy, not a high floor guy. He isn't the player they thought he was IMO. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Exactly, especially for Guards and off-ball linebackers, who, for fifth-year option salary purposes, are lumped with offensive tackles and edge-rushing linebackers, respectively.  You could argue that that's really a system flaw, but still...

 

And if I were in the owner's position, I wouldn't change that.    Having a salary hierarchy is to management's advantage.  The NFL doesn't want an NBA or MLB system where any position can be your superstars.   That inflates costs.  

 

And by gently "punishing" teams for not using 1st round picks on premium positions it re-inforces the value of that hierarchy of positions that they've created.

 

I think the NFLPA would strongly prefer that the 5th year option be more reflective of the positional value so those options get picked up..........but the owners aren't just going to give that to them.   Some think these guys all just want a shot at free agency but in the big picture guaranteeing big year 5 salaries after year 3 is a big win for players on the whole and a bargaining chip.     

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is definitely something in this. Day 2 is either the higher ceiling guys with flags (some of those may just be about rawness of their game some will be off field issues) or it is the safe higher floor, low ceiling guys who are a bit more lunch pail. Given those choices Beane's preference has generally been for the latter. In fact Knox and Spencer Brown are probably the two "swings" they have taken on day 2. Generally they have taken safer guys. 

 

I'm not sure Bernard would ever have gone in round 1 though. I didn't look at him pre-draft, admittedly, but I did watch some of him post draft and pre-season and there was nothing there that blew me away in any facet of his game. I think that one might just be that they whiffed. Boogie was a whiff too. I think they thought he was a swing for the fences guy, not a high floor guy. He isn't the player they thought he was IMO. 

I agree about Bernard.  Didn't mean to suggest he was a first rounder.  I meant the opposite - that he over-achieved into day two.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by Shaw66

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I'm not sure Bernard would ever have gone in round 1 though. I didn't look at him pre-draft, admittedly, but I did watch some of him post draft and pre-season and there was nothing there that blew me away in any facet of his game. I think that one might just be that they whiffed.

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on Dorian Williams. I know you gave him a low 3rd/high 4th grade but I have seen some compare the pick to Terrell Bernard. Since you scouted both, do you agree with that comparison? Or does Williams have more to work with?

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

2017 - not a great team that outperformed expectations. D gave up 10 pts

2019 - in it to the end and without the phantom illegal block call probably win it. D only gave up 22 including overtime

2020 - let a mediocre team hang around in the Colts. D allowed 24 pts; D dominated Baltimore allowing only 3 pts; outclassed by the Chiefs

2021 - crushed the Patsies D only gave up 17 and they were playing backups fairly early on; should have won against the Chiefs but the D could not stop Mahomes

2022 - team was out of sorts for both games - I truly believe they were emotionally spent. Barely beat an overmatched Dolphins team and were no-shows against the Bengals.

 

Given this I think it is unfair to say the D does not show up in the playoffs with the exception of the last few minutes of 2021 and this year’s playoffs.

 

Let's focus on the latter three years as a good GM improves his team over time.  

 

Quote

 

2020 - let a mediocre team hang around in the Colts. D allowed 24 pts; D dominated Baltimore allowing only 3 pts; outclassed by the Chiefs

2021 - crushed the Patsies D only gave up 17 and they were playing backups fairly early on; should have won against the Chiefs but the D could not stop Mahomes

2022 - team was out of sorts for both games - I truly believe they were emotionally spent. Barely beat an overmatched Dolphins team and were no-shows against the Bengals.

 

 

Baltimore is the only one.  You're really not going to cite NE with Jones in his rookie season and not a WR to mention on the team,  at home for us, are you?  I'd hardly call that a feat.  

 

I'm not sure how that is demonstrating how the D didn't show up.  We also no-showed, at home, for Cincy before Hamlin got hurt in that game, it's hardly as if we were shutting them down.  

 

In five of those playoff games we allowed over 32 PPG.  That's good?   We must have different standards.  Unfortunately we don't play Baltimore or teams with rookie QBs the caliber of Mac Jones in the playoffs very often.  

 

For reference purposes, in 2020, when we "held" the Chiefs to 38, the Browns and their 21st ranked D held them to 22, and the Bucs and their 8th ranked D held them to 9.  Together those two teams didn't allow what we allowed.  

 

In 2021, we allowed the same number of points that the Steelers and their 21st ranked D did to the Chiefs, the Bengals and their 17th ranked D held hem to 18 fewer points.  

 

This past season was a complete debacle and everyone knows it, we can make excuses, but vs. the Bengals in the regular season game, they were ripping off yards like it was an all-u-can-eat buffet before Hamlin went down.  

 

Everyone has different standards, I'll accept that you don't think that's problematic, I simply don't ever see us even sniffing a Championship like that tho, and getting back to contracts which this thread was about, few if any of the defensive players that some are defending in this thread, including Diggs for example who has the largest contract on the team otherwise, simply didn't show up generally speaking in the playoffs.  Since we're talking about contracts and how good players are, it's hardly an NFL secret that the better players step up in the playoffs.  Ours haven't.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Dopey said:

Understood, but I was replying to the following you wrote: "Our D has been AWOL in the playoffs."  This appears to be off of the original topic of contracts too. No?

 

Limeaid provided examples in his post. Read them. It's in English.

 

That's a coincidence, because what I wrote was in English too. 

 

Quote

Playing well and losing is entirely different than your best players not showing up and otherwise playing like crap.  You know that.  Our D has been AWOL in the playoffs.  

 

Let me know whether you need to have the concept of players/contracts corelated to their performance on the field when justifying whether or not those contracts were good ones or not.  

 

Regarding contracts ... 

 

That's the problem with the premise of this thread to begin with, contracts don't always translate to performance.  If you need some players as examples, let me know.  Happy to provide a few.  Lotulolei was one.  And oddly enough, Beane signed him.  Trent Murphy was another overpaid one.  John Brown was overpaid although not significantly.  Mario Addison grossly overpaid.  Vernon Butler a complete waste of money.  League wide, Russell Wilson's another current example, a really good one in fact.  You've heard of him, right?   

 

 

Edited May 4, 2023 by PBF81

[DCofNC]

15 hours ago, Manther said:

OP, it’s another good way to slice and dice success.  Thanks for the read and insight.

 

2020 was the Covid draft and the worst success percentage.  Regardless Beane is 100% so far which is impressive.

The 5th year option is fools gold.  It should never be used other than extreme cases where you cannot work out an extension.  If the player is good enough to warrant that kind of money, you sign him immediately to a long term deal, if he’s not, he should be walking out the door.   Letting a player play out the 5th year has little to no advantage to the club.  
 

Either A) the play great and your long term deal price goes way higher.  

 

B) They play to the value of said contract, which means you would have had them under that cap hit on an extension anyway.

 

C) They suck/get injured and you paid for nothing. 

 

if ANYONE plays on a 5th year deal, it should be an exception, not the rule.  The fact the Bills have cornered themselves by using it so many times and lost on the deal in every one of them, should be more concerning.  Celebrate, what you want, but this is about as exciting as the franchise tag is to players. 

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

The 5th year option is fools gold.  It should never be used other than extreme cases where you cannot work out an extension.  If the player is good enough to warrant that kind of money, you sign him immediately to a long term deal, if he’s not, he should be walking out the door.   Letting a player play out the 5th year has little to no advantage to the club.  
 

Either A) the play great and your long term deal price goes way higher.  

 

B) They play to the value of said contract, which means you would have had them under that cap hit on an extension anyway.

 

C) They suck/get injured and you paid for nothing. 

 

if ANYONE plays on a 5th year deal, it should be an exception, not the rule.  The fact the Bills have cornered themselves by using it so many times and lost on the deal in every one of them, should be more concerning.  Celebrate, what you want, but this is about as exciting as the franchise tag is to players. 

 

It could also be if you don't think that the player's worth the money but you don't have an immediate replacement, hence as a temporary plug until you can draft a guy or get a free agent to replace him.  IOW, you're not going to sign him under any circumstances, but he's worth the 5th year option price but not worth the money he's seeking in a long-term contract.  Oliver's kind of in that boat.  He'll get more than he's worth, but for the $10M he's getting this year, Beane doesn't have much choice and he knows the system.  There would be a chemistry learning curve with a newbie, not to mention risk there too.  Oliver's not worth the money but it's also far from being a ripoff.   Beane will have to address that next offseason though.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

5 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

In particular the defense has bailed out offense several times in playoffs.

In Ravens game (January 16, 2021) the defense kept Jackson bottled up most of game, a defense plan copied by other teams, before interception in endzone (Bills 17, Ravens 3)

In P*tsie game (January 15, 2022) defense repeatedly made plays until defense teeth pulled and they still made plays (Bills 47, P*tsies 17(

Yes we lost 5 playoff games but that happens in single elimination tournaments.

Saying the defense bailed out the offense in a game where the offense scored every time they touched the ball is something

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

It could also be if you don't think that the player's worth the money but you don't have an immediate replacement, hence as a temporary plug until you can draft a guy or get a free agent to replace him.  IOW, you're not going to sign him under any circumstances, but he's worth the 5th year option price but not worth the money he's seeking in a long-term contract.  Oliver's kind of in that boat.  He'll get more than he's worth, but for the $10M he's getting this year, Beane doesn't have much choice and he knows the system.  There would be a chemistry learning curve with a newbie, not to mention risk there too.  Oliver's not worth the money but it's also far from being a ripoff.   Beane will have to address that next offseason though.  

 

 

He's the best answer for a year with limited draft capital and limited cap.  Just like Edmunds was.  Bust is gone after four, star extended after four, the guy in between is often worth it for a year.  

 

It wouldn't make sense to lose Edmunds and Oliver in the same year.  

[Einstein]

Beane's issues are not his ability to get "good" or "average" players.

 

His problem is his inability to get difference making players, and his record on Day 2.

 

1 Aaron Donald is worth 3 Ed Olivers.

1 Sauce Gardner is worth 3 Kaiir Elams.

1 Jeffrey Simmons is worth 3 Greg Rousseous.

 

Etc.

 

 

 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

He's the best answer for a year with limited draft capital and limited cap.  Just like Edmunds was.  Bust is gone after four, star extended after four, the guy in between is often worth it for a year.  

 

It wouldn't make sense to lose Edmunds and Oliver in the same year.  

 

Agreed, although I think that I would have kept Edmunds.  Edmunds had more upside in being only 24, just in case, but also, the drop from Edmunds to ?? will be greater than the drop from Oliver to Poona Ford now or Jordan Phillips would have been.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, although I think that I would have kept Edmunds.  Edmunds had more upside in being only 24, just in case, but also, the drop from Edmunds to ?? will be greater than the drop from Oliver to Poona Ford now or Jordan Phillips would have been.  

 

 

I was an Edmunds supporter, even though he never was physical enough for my taste. If Williams gets the job, he will hit people.  Beane and McD know better than we do, and they concluded Edmunds isn't a White or Allen. Time will tell.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Einstein said:

Beane's issues are not his ability to get "good" or "average" players.

 

His problem is his inability to get difference making players, and his record on Day 2.

 

1 Aaron Donald is worth 3 Ed Olivers.

1 Sauce Gardner is worth 3 Kaiir Elams.

1 Jeffrey Simmons is worth 3 Greg Rousseous.

 

Etc.

 

 

 

 

I mean... Elam was picked at 23 not 4.  Either way, the book isn't even close to written on this guy for us to say that. 

 

Rousseau was picked at 30, and is 4th in his draft class in overall sacks behind parsons, phillips, and Ojulari - and generally would be probably a starter on an "all-2021" draft rookie team.  

 

I'd agree Oliver is a miss considering the 3 DTs drafted after him all outperformed him.  In the Group of 6 DTs in 2019 - Q. Williams, Oliver, Wilkins, Lawrence, Simmons, Tillery - he would probably have to be considered #5.  

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I was an Edmunds supporter, even though he never was physical enough for my taste. If Williams gets the job, he will hit people.  Beane and McD know better than we do, and they concluded Edmunds isn't a White or Allen. Time will tell.  

 

Edmunds was only 24 though.  Milano started when he was 23 and didn't really take that "leap" until last season when he was 27.  

 

My thing is that if you're going to draft players when they're 20, you owe it to both your team as well as to the player to work it out to keep them at least until the forefront of their prime, and they didn't do that.  IMO Edmunds improves significantly, I also think that he'll be better out of our system.  He's very well-rounded despite his tackling issues which IMO aren't monumental.  

 

Williams may hit, but is he big enough to stop larger RBs and WRs.  We shall see.  I'm far from convinced at the moment.  

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

16 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

The players that Beane drafted have gotten us 4 playoff wins so far after the Bills hadn't even been to the playoffs the prior 17 years.

Thank you. Beane built the 2nd most talented roster in the Bills existence  and people want him on the hot seat. People really want to start from scratch in Allen’s prime years. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on Dorian Williams. I know you gave him a low 3rd/high 4th grade but I have seen some compare the pick to Terrell Bernard. Since you scouted both, do you agree with that comparison? Or does Williams have more to work with?

 

I didn't scout Bernard I went back and watched what I could find post draft so not quite the same but I prefer Williams's upside. Definitely. 

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

100% correct. Beane has not had a 1st rounder bust. People can question whether Tremaine ever fulfilled his full potential and can ask the same with Ed but they are both, unquestionably, good NFL players. 

 

If only his record on day 2 was as good. I think Beane has been one of the best round 1 drafters and one of the best day 3 drafters. His day two record...

 

Harrison Phillips (never a starter and walked after 1 contract)

Cody Ford (never nailed a starting role and traded after 3 seasons)

Devin Singletary (starter but walked after 1 contract)

Dawson Knox (good starter, re-signed to a second contract)

AJ Epenesa (never been more than a rotational player going into contract year)

Zack Moss (traded away early in 3rd year)

Boogie Basham (still buried on the depth chart going into year 3)

Spencer Brown (starter who showed some flashes as a rookie, bad second season, going into vital 3rd year)

 

Won't breakdown Cook and Bernard as 1 year probably isn't sufficient to take a view but it's a poor record with Dawson Knox the one success story. 

 

I don't think this list is that bad when you factor this is rounds 2 and 3 and essentially 4 of them are or have been starting players in this league.  Devin and Knox were key starters and contributors, Brown has been a starter, but coming off a down year after injuries where like you said this is the year to either lock that starting spot down, or show he isn't the long term solution.  Then Harry didn't become a starter here with Ed and Star here, but he was signed away for the Bills to be a starter and still is the starter for the Vikings.  

 

Boogie and AJE are kind of in the same boat as Harry was, stuck down on the depth chart behind guys we have heavy investments in (currently a 1st rounder in Groot and a gazillion dollars in Von).  But both have had some flashes, and I think both still have the potential to be starters in this league.  By no means am I declaring they would for sure be starters else where, just saying neither of them has had a real shot here to earn that starting spot yet.  AJE was stuck behind 2 pretty good vets his rookie year, then they drafted both Groot and Boogie the next year and still had the same 2 vets here as well.  Then when they leave, they gave a gazillion dollars to Von and also brought back Shaq who played pretty well too.

 

Then you still have Cook and Bernard making it 10 picks...one of which looks to be on his way to being a good player, the other we are about to find out if has anything to offer now that Edmunds is gone.  

 

So when I look at this track record, I don't think its as bad as people think personally.  Could it be better sure, but it is also not the trainwreck some other posters make it out to be either.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't think this list is that bad when you factor this is rounds 2 and 3 and essentially 4 of them are or have been starting players in this league.  Devin and Knox were key starters and contributors, Brown has been a starter, but coming off a down year after injuries where like you said this is the year to either lock that starting spot down, or show he isn't the long term solution.  Then Harry didn't become a starter here with Ed and Star here, but he was signed away for the Bills to be a starter and still is the starter for the Vikings.  

 

Boogie and AJE are kind of in the same boat as Harry was, stuck down on the depth chart behind guys we have heavy investments in (currently a 1st rounder in Groot and a gazillion dollars in Von).  But both have had some flashes, and I think both still have the potential to be starters in this league.  By no means am I declaring they would for sure be starters else where, just saying neither of them has had a real shot here to earn that starting spot yet.  AJE was stuck behind 2 pretty good vets his rookie year, then they drafted both Groot and Boogie the next year and still had the same 2 vets here as well.  Then when they leave, they gave a gazillion dollars to Von and also brought back Shaq who played pretty well too.

 

Then you still have Cook and Bernard making it 10 picks...one of which looks to be on his way to being a good player, the other we are about to find out if has anything to offer now that Edmunds is gone.  

 

So when I look at this track record, I don't think its as bad as people think personally.  Could it be better sure, but it is also not the trainwreck some other posters make it out to be either.  

 

I can't think of a single team AJE or Boogie start for. I don't think 1 out of 8 who starts for the team beyond a first contract is a good outcome. 

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't think this list is that bad when you factor this is rounds 2 and 3 and essentially 4 of them are or have been starting players in this league.  Devin and Knox were key starters and contributors, Brown has been a starter, but coming off a down year after injuries where like you said this is the year to either lock that starting spot down, or show he isn't the long term solution.  Then Harry didn't become a starter here with Ed and Star here, but he was signed away for the Bills to be a starter and still is the starter for the Vikings.  

 

Boogie and AJE are kind of in the same boat as Harry was, stuck down on the depth chart behind guys we have heavy investments in (currently a 1st rounder in Groot and a gazillion dollars in Von).  But both have had some flashes, and I think both still have the potential to be starters in this league.  By no means am I declaring they would for sure be starters else where, just saying neither of them has had a real shot here to earn that starting spot yet.  AJE was stuck behind 2 pretty good vets his rookie year, then they drafted both Groot and Boogie the next year and still had the same 2 vets here as well.  Then when they leave, they gave a gazillion dollars to Von and also brought back Shaq who played pretty well too.

 

Then you still have Cook and Bernard making it 10 picks...one of which looks to be on his way to being a good player, the other we are about to find out if has anything to offer now that Edmunds is gone.  

 

So when I look at this track record, I don't think its as bad as people think personally.  Could it be better sure, but it is also not the trainwreck some other posters make it out to be either.  

It's definitely not a trainwreck

 

Its like they prioritize not missing value in the mid rounds which is why you get a lot of the high floor guys the league is littered with, people hate the safe picks but that's how NFL rosters are built

 

Whether they should start taking more risks wrt where the Bills are at in their SB trajectory is a conversation worth having however imo 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Correction, Allen has gotten us 4 playoff wins.  Most of Beane's biggest draft picks that you refer to have flopped come playoff time.  And we have yet to advance beyond the divisional round more than once generally having underachieved.  

 

 

 

 And Josh Allen is a draft pick Beane made, so @Allen2Diggsstatement is still correct.

 

 Was the 2021 playoff loss to the Chiefs Beane’s fault? Allen obviously played lights out that year in the playoffs, but Singletary(3), Knox(2) & Davis(5) combined for 10 of our 12 TDs in those 2 games. All Beane draft picks. Add Doyle's TD into the mix and that's 11 combined TDs in 2 games by players drafted by Beane. Sanders TD against the Pats was the only TD scored by someone not drafted by Beane.

 

 Add to that our top passer, our top 2 rushers and our top 2 receivers in the 2021 playoffs were Beane draft picks.

 

He's not a perfect GM, but we've made the playoffs for 4 straight years and have a winning record over the last 3 years in the playoffs. Very few teams can say that.

 

 

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

10 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Little cranky today huh ? 

Maybe PBF81 just got up on the wrong side of the bottle? 🤔

[stevestojan]

Are we saying Beane is good at his job?

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 And Josh Allen is a draft pick Beane made, so @Allen2Diggsstatement is still correct.

 

 Was the 2021 playoff loss to the Chiefs Beane’s fault? Allen obviously played lights out that year in the playoffs, but Singletary(3), Knox(2) & Davis(5) combined for 10 of our 12 TDs in those 2 games. All Beane draft picks. Add Doyle's TD into the mix and that's 11 combined TDs in 2 games by players drafted by Beane. Sanders TD against the Pats was the only TD scored by someone not drafted by Beane.

 

 Add to that our top passer, our top 2 rushers and our top 2 receivers in the 2021 playoffs were Beane draft picks.

 

He's not a perfect GM, but we've made the playoffs for 4 straight years and have a winning record over the last 3 years in the playoffs. Very few teams can say that.  

 

We're so far away from the original comments.  You're talking offense, how many of those players above were draft picks in rounds 1-3.  Just sayin'.   That's the problem with these threads, they digress and it's impossible to focus on the original statements argued both ways.  

 

 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

We're so far away from the original comments.  You're talking offense, how many of those players above were draft picks in rounds 1-3.  Just sayin'.   That's the problem with these threads, they digress and it's impossible to focus on the original statements argued both ways.  

 

 

 

 Ok. Josh, Singletary & Knox were all drafted in the first 3 rounds. All did well in the 2021 playoffs. Also Edmunds was our leading tackler and throw in a sack each by Oliver & Basham. 

 

 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

I love regular season wins..it’s a good thing I stop watching when the playoffs start.

[DCofNC]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

It could also be if you don't think that the player's worth the money but you don't have an immediate replacement, hence as a temporary plug until you can draft a guy or get a free agent to replace him.  IOW, you're not going to sign him under any circumstances, but he's worth the 5th year option price but not worth the money he's seeking in a long-term contract.  Oliver's kind of in that boat.  He'll get more than he's worth, but for the $10M he's getting this year, Beane doesn't have much choice and he knows the system.  There would be a chemistry learning curve with a newbie, not to mention risk there too.  Oliver's not worth the money but it's also far from being a ripoff.   Beane will have to address that next offseason though.  

 

 

But, you have to declare the option after year 3 so that’s not really part of the deal.

[PBF81]

39 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

But, you have to declare the option after year 3 so that’s not really part of the deal.

 

True, good point.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can't think of a single team AJE or Boogie start for. I don't think 1 out of 8 who starts for the team beyond a first contract is a good outcome. 

 

Its not 1 of 8, no disrespect but that is quite the exaggeration, especially since 3 of the 8 were starters almost their whole time here (Devin, Knox, and Brown) and we still have guys where we don't know yet how they will turn out.  Plus, Harry became a starter after he left here and wasn't buried behind a #9 overall pick and Star.  So really, that is 4 guys who proved they can start in this league.  But strictly in terms of the Bills, that is 3.  

 

And regardless of your opinion on AJE and Boogie, the facts are they have been buried and not really been given a chance to start here.  I am by no means saying they could for sure start somewhere else, but they have been stuck behind quality veterans, a first round pick, and Von Miller.  So I don't think its fair to say they for sure can't start elsewhere when they have not been really given a chance to start here, a team that uses a heavy rotation in the first place.  

 

And Cook and Bernard both will be given shots to be significant players for us this year, and Cook especially has shown quite a bit of promise.  

 

So, I stand by what I said...its not as bad as some are making it out to be.  Doesn't mean its as good as his other picks, but its not a total trainwreck and has the potential to be better still.  If Brown and Cook prove to be good players this year for us, then it already looks a lot better.  And if Bernard proves to be solid or better, then this group of 10 picks starts to look pretty good.  

 

 

[Chaos]

13 hours ago, mannc said:

Beane has only made three first round picks who have been eligible to have their fifth-year option picked up. Of those, only Josh Allen has been extended.  Not exactly a great track record. Nice try, though.

I am trying to understand how he is 100%

[Mr. WEO]

21 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

The players that Beane drafted have gotten us 4 playoff wins so far after the Bills hadn't even been to the playoffs the prior 17 years.

 

Compared to zero, even 1 is infinitely larger.....

[Chaos]

11 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Agreed, I am just saying picking up 5th year options should not be the measuring stick.  It is one piece of information.

We did not pick up edmunds. We did not pick up oliver. How is Beane 100%. Willing to learn. 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Ok. Josh, Singletary & Knox were all drafted in the first 3 rounds. All did well in the 2021 playoffs. Also Edmunds was our leading tackler and throw in a sack each by Oliver & Basham. 

 

 

 

BTW, the topic (and thread) were about Contracts.  So stick with it.  F-O-C-U-S.  I have faith in you, I do.  

 

Singletary and Knox were small contracts, not the biggest.  Singletary's gone, for cheap.  Knox's was also tiny.  2nd and 3rd round rookie contracts are never huge.  You know that, come on.  Allen is Allen and no one's questioning that single pick.  I'll toss in that Diggs, our $24M/year money man, has averaged 4 catches for 45 yards and not a TD to be found in four of his last 5 playoff games, and has had 0 TDs in our last five playoff games, including the two against KC and one vs. Cincy.  

 

As to Oliver and Basham, the latter's contract alwo wasn't huge, very small.  Again, he's hardly one of our players that is expected to make an impact, and it shouldn't surprise you if he doesn't even make the roster this year.  

 

As to Oliver, good size but not huge contract, they're not going to extend him, but in 8 playoff games that he's been in since he's been here, he's averaged 2-1/2 total tackles (Solo & Asst) per game, 1 each TFL and QBH every other game, and 1 sack every 4 games, 2 total, and one of those 2 sacks was on Skylar Thompson.  That's what you're bragging on there.  

 

Let's put this to rest, can we.  
 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Most fans felt Oliver and Edmunds were overpaid on their 5th year. Both will likely sign for much larger salaries than their 5th year. Average players clean up in free agency. Could be a common theme in Buffalo because our QB is going to make a lot and we can’t sign average players to top contracts. Bad teams will sign our average players.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Ethan in Cleveland]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

We did not pick up edmunds. We did not pick up oliver. How is Beane 100%. Willing to learn. 

What are you talking about? Both players had their options picked up.  Edmunds wasn't extended. And we don't know what is going to happen with Oliver.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

What are you talking about? Both players had their options picked up.  Edmunds wasn't extended. And we don't know what is going to happen with Oliver.

As I’ve predicted they will sign one of Davis and Oliver. Davis will sign a 2nd tier WR contract around $14 million per season this summer. Oliver will walk in UFA. Look for Davis to sign a similar deal as Knox last year.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Most fans felt Oliver and Edmunds were overpaid on their 5th year. Both will likely sign for much larger salaries than their 5h year. Average players clean up in free agency. Could be a common theme in Buffalo because our QB is going to make a lot and we can sign average players to top contracts. Bad teams will sign our average players.

Actually most fans don't. Most of us think the decision to pick up the options made good sense. Bills were not in a position to move on from Edmunds in 2022 and they are not ready to move on from Oliver in 2023. 

Not committing huge dollars long term to Edmunds was correct. Letting Oliver walk after 2023 will also be the right decision.