The Bills First Round Selection (#27) will be offense. And from among these five players.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Get ready for it to be a Center/Guard or RT/Guard prospect at #27. The board will riot. 

 

My preference is Darnell Washington because he has the highest ceiling in terms of potentially being one of those cheat code type weapons on offense.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, LEBills said:

We will find out soon. I hope but am doubtful they will go offense early and often this year

 

It's basically now or never in terms of them going offense heavy in the draft this year. Their tract record is basically defense and when they do go offense it is freaking RB. Feel like Beane knows the heat is on him to get some help on offense. He knows he hasn't exactly hit on his defensive draft picks to put it mildly and that taking RB's on day two has also not helped.  

[Chaos]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

@Chaos

 

I’d be happy with any of them as they all play on O.

 

That said, why did you omit addison from the list?   

My estimate is he will be gone. If he is not gone I would make him tied with Mayer on the list. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

17 hours ago, Chaos said:

The toughest part of projecting the Bills first round is knowing which 25 players will be picked before the Bills are on the clock.  Barring a trade, the Bills will select from among these players, in this order, depending on who remains on the  board:

 

1. Dalton Kindcaid TE (despite no top 30 visit.  No visit was needed. If Kincaid is on the board, very likely he is easily the BPA.  Bill top 30 visits or private workouts with three other TE's.  This is a position of interest to the Bills. 
2. Michael Mayer  TE.  If Kincaid is off the board and Mayers is left he will be the pick for the same reasons. 
3. Darnell Wright OT.  If Kincaid and Mayer are off the board, and Wright is on the board, he is likely the top rated player left whom the Bills have targeted with a top 30 visit. 
4. Zay Flowers WR.  If the top 3 players are gone, and Flowers is left, he is almost certainly the best offensive weapon left on board. Separation is 95% of what matters for NFL WRs and Flowers is arguably the best separator in the pass (Bills had top 30 visit with Flowers)
5. Darnell Washtington TE.  Bills had a top 30 interview with Washington. Likely in hopes of landing him in the second.  But the Bills will be emotionally committed to drafting offense with pick 1.  TE is a position of interest to the Bills, and Washington would be taken ahead of remaining lineman (assuming nothing weird like Broderick Jones being on the board still).  Washington is one of one in this draft in terms of physical potential at the TE position. (Note Wright and Flowers will be targeted ahead of Washington, because they are far more likely to have 2023 impact. Long term Washington may improve more important.

 

 

I would throw up on myself if we took Mayer or Washington I just don’t see it with those 2 players . I rather take one of the TEs in the later rds especially Kuntz that kid has massive potential and since TEs need development anyways he’s the best value for us. 

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I would throw up on myself if we took Mayer or Washington I just don’t see it with those 2 players . I rather take one of the TEs in the later rds especially Kuntz that kid has massive potential and since TEs need development anyways he’s the best value for us. 

Tilt your head to the side. Much less disgusting experience. 

13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Get ready for it to be a Center/Guard or RT/Guard prospect at #27. The board will riot. 

 

My preference is Darnell Washington because he has the highest ceiling in terms of potentially being one of those cheat code type weapons on offense.

Torrence or Avila, along with McGovern will greatly improve the Bills line.  I am lately pretty stuck on the idea that redzone performance improvement is the primary thing the Bills need on offense, because I think the Bills already have shown to be the dominant offense between the 20's.   Torrence or Avila would help improve Red Zone performance.  The Bills really don't need "field stretchers" or "chain movers".  We are already punt fewer than any team in the NFL.  The Bills do have room for improvment in the redzone, and will benefit from better protection of Allen.  Olinemen at any position should help with both fo those things. 

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It's basically now or never in terms of them going offense heavy in the draft this year. Their tract record is basically defense and when they do go offense it is freaking RB. Feel like Beane knows the heat is on him to get some help on offense. He knows he hasn't exactly hit on his defensive draft picks to put it mildly and that taking RB's on day two has also not helped.  

I hope so but the main positions on offense for upgrade are WR and RT and I’m not sure the Bills will feel the value is there at 27.

 

Foe defense, the positions are much more in line with the projected value at 27. LB, DT, DE. Plus, McDermott is calling plays now and I feel like he is going to want every position stacked to his liking. And McDermott has a big say in who the Bills draft as we have seen.

 

I hope we go offense for all of the first three rounds and more, but I am doubtful. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

3 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I hope so but the main positions on offense for upgrade are WR and RT and I’m not sure the Bills will feel the value is there at 27.

 

Foe defense, the positions are much more in line with the projected value at 27. LB, DT, DE. Plus, McDermott is calling plays now and I feel like he is going to want every position stacked to his liking. And McDermott has a big say in who the Bills draft as we have seen.

 

I hope we go offense for all of the first three rounds and more, but I am doubtful. 

I believe our first pick will be D as well. 

 

May the odds be ever in your favor.😉

 

https://www.syracuse.com/betting/2023/04/buffalo-bills-first-pick-predictions-odds-for-the-2023-nfl-draft.html

[TheBeaneBandit]

27 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Get ready for it to be a Center/Guard or RT/Guard prospect at #27. The board will riot. 

 

My preference is Darnell Washington because he has the highest ceiling in terms of potentially being one of those cheat code type weapons on offense.

Not a sexy pick but I'm in if it helps protect Josh. 

15 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Tilt your head to the side. Much less disgusting experience. 

Torrence or Avila, along with McGovern will greatly improve the Bills line.  I am lately pretty stuck on the idea that redzone performance improvement is the primary thing the Bills need on offense, because I think the Bills already have shown to be the dominant offense between the 20's.   Torrence or Avila would help improve Red Zone performance.  The Bills really don't need "field stretchers" or "chain movers".  We are already punt fewer than any team in the NFL.  The Bills do have room for improvment in the redzone, and will benefit from better protection of Allen.  Olinemen at any position should help with both fo those things. 

What about Washington as a extra right tackle/weapon? Drafting him will kind of improve two positions if you will.

[Chaos]

8 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

What about Washington as a extra right tackle/weapon? Drafting him will kind of improve two positions if you will.

I have Washington listed in my OP as one among the choices I expect. My reply on guard was simply a reply to a question regarding that position. I don't think they would take a guard ahead of Washington.  

[NeverOutNick]

39 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Get ready for it to be a Center/Guard or RT/Guard prospect at #27. The board will riot. 

 

My preference is Darnell Washington because he has the highest ceiling in terms of potentially being one of those cheat code type weapons on offense.

I’d be ecstatic if that was the case…let’s build the O line up with actual good O line prospects from the draft instead of paying for retreads

[MrEpsYtown]

I still think it’s going to be one of the four receivers or defense. 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Sure it does. You'd have a deadly two tight end set for 3 to 4 years and then when Knox contract is up that guy would be ready to come into his own and be the main man. Depending on the guy, you also have the ability to flex him all over. Kincaid=young Jimmy Graham.

Josh Allen loves to throw to wide receivers, not tight ends

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

The obvious exception to this being Josh Allen. 😁

Edited April 23, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I would throw up on myself if we took Mayer or Washington I just don’t see it with those 2 players . I rather take one of the TEs in the later rds especially Kuntz that kid has massive potential and since TEs need development anyways he’s the best value for us. 

 

I think both are decent players. But how do they change the paradigm? Mayer is a good solid all around tight end. We have one of those. He is name Dawson Knox and he is much more athletically talented than Mayer and we already under use him. Knox is a better matchup weapon. Running Mayer out there instead of a slot receiver makes our O less dynamic IMO. Washington does bring something a bit different. He is an excellent blocker. But again he isn't as good as Knox in space or ball in his hand. So you want to spend a 1st on an in line blocking tight end who might have a bit of additonal redzone value (where Knox is already a top 5 contributor among tight ends)? I don't think that is good value. 

 

Don't get me wrong there are teams for whom Mayer in round 1 makes sense (less so Washington for me, but there you are). But the Bills are not one of them. 

 

Kincaid is a different category altogether. He is a genuine bona fide weapon. He doesn't really block. But 12 personnel where Kincaid and Knox are on the field together is a potential matchup nightmare for defenses so long as Dorsey and Allen can work out how to use them.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

might have a bit of additonal redzone value

Other than Red Zone, where are the Bills going to get better production on offense? Real question. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Other than Red Zone, where are the Bills going to get better production on offense? Real question. 

 

So your fewest punt stats is a good one, but it is HEAVILY influenced by the first 8 games. The Bills punted 15 times through their first 8 games last year. Fewer than 2 a game. They punted double that amount through their final 8 (30 times). 

 

That 30 in 8 games number pro-rata for 17 games would have put us at 14th fewest punts. We'd have punted more than the Falcons. So I don't think it is true to say we don't need help between the 20s. I also think a lot of the reliance on Josh's legs to move the chains down the stretch was because other elements of the offense stalled. 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So your fewest punt stats is a good one, but it is HEAVILY influenced by the first 8 games. The Bills punted 15 times through their first 8 games last year. Fewer than 2 a game. They punted double that amount through their final 8 (30 times). 

 

That 30 in 8 games number pro-rata for 17 games would have put us at 14th fewest punts. We'd have punted more than the Falcons. So I don't think it is true to say we don't need help between the 20s. I also think a lot of the reliance on Josh's legs to move the chains down the stretch was because other elements of the offense stalled. 

I think the games after game 8 were very skewed by a UCL injury to a key player.  Those are the ones to toss as an aberation. 

[JohnNord]

17 hours ago, RiotAct said:

we’ll probably be drafting around 10:30 - 11 PM I’d imagine?  Assuming we stay put at 27, that is

More like 11:00 PM

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I think the games after game 8 were very skewed by a UCL injury to a key player.  Those are the ones to toss as an aberation. 

 

That played a part for sure. But there were drops (Gabe and Isaiah particularly), lack of separation (Shakir) and some predictable play calling that were all factors too. 

[frostbitmic]

If offense is the choice in the first, I'm guessing it'll be Jordan Addison.

 

I still think the first round pick will either be a DE or a LB. With McDermott taking over the defense and wanting to be more aggressive, it's the perfect excuse to draft more D. McDermott had Kuechly running his D in Carolina and had Edmunds here, until now, watch out for Sanders or Campbell in the first.

 

1. Addison WR

2. Campbell LB

3. Wright T

4. Sanders LB

5. Kincaid TE

[Mister Defense]

Nope--maybe you want a tight end more than anything else in this draft, but the Bills do not. 

 

They just shelled out a huge amount for Knox and won't go there again in a few years, especially with Josh Allen always running for his life.  And besides, the OC does not know how to use tight ends well, properly anyway.

 

The Bills, I hope, will finally start fixing their most obvious problem, a weak, always in flux offensive line.  Hoping they trade up to get the best right tackle they can get.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Mister Defense

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think both are decent players. But how do they change the paradigm? Mayer is a good solid all around tight end. We have one of those. He is name Dawson Knox and he is much more athletically talented than Mayer and we already under use him. Knox is a better matchup weapon. Running Mayer out there instead of a slot receiver makes our O less dynamic IMO. Washington does bring something a bit different. He is an excellent blocker. But again he isn't as good as Knox in space or ball in his hand. So you want to spend a 1st on an in line blocking tight end who might have a bit of additonal redzone value (where Knox is already a top 5 contributor among tight ends)? I don't think that is good value. 

 

Don't get me wrong there are teams for whom Mayer in round 1 makes sense (less so Washington for me, but there you are). But the Bills are not one of them. 

 

Kincaid is a different category altogether. He is a genuine bona fide weapon. He doesn't really block. But 12 personnel where Kincaid and Knox are on the field together is a potential matchup nightmare for defenses so long as Dorsey and Allen can work out how to use them.

I agree Gunner, Kincaid would fit much better then Mayer or Washington I think those guys would just slow are offense down . I rather get someone later rds like Kuntz or Schoonmaker . 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't know if that is hyperbole or not, but obviously the pick of a TE early is dependent on Dorsey using 12 personnel. No one is advocating using a first round pick for a backup to Knox and it is disingenuous to suggest such.

There is no chance what so ever the Bills offense is switching to primarily 12 personnel to where Washington got 10+ TDs.  This isn’t Madden where you just click what ever playbook you want.  
 

Dorsey is not going to scrap his entire offense, the offense Allen has excelled in, the offense that has been the top offense over the last 3 seasons to switch to 12 personnel full time for a rookie TE just because there wasn’t a better option at pick 27. 
 

PS:  Try and find a SB winner whose primary offense was 12 personnel.  

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There is no chance what so ever the Bills offense is switching to primarily 12 personnel to where Washington got 10+ TDs.  This isn’t Madden where you just click what ever playbook you want.  
 

Dorsey is not going to scrap his entire offense, the offense Allen has excelled in, the offense that has been the top offense over the last 3 seasons to switch to 12 personnel full time for a rookie TE just because there wasn’t a better option at pick 27. 
 

PS:  Try and find a SB winner whose primary offense was 12 personnel.  

I think 12 personnel would be very effective in the RZ where Dorsey so far has shown lack of creativity. That is also where a lot of our turnovers showed up. 12 personnel is a formation that creates more confusion and decision making for the Defense. Supposedly Dorsey has some familiarity with it. I don't think it is an outrageous idea. You are free to think otherwise.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think 12 personnel would be very effective in the RZ where Dorsey so far has shown lack of creativity. That is also where a lot of our turnovers showed up. 12 personnel is a formation that creates more confusion and decision making for the Defense. Supposedly Dorsey has some familiarity with it. I don't think it is an outrageous idea. You are free to think otherwise.

Im not saying he wouldn’t incorporate it, I am saying it’s not going to become a focal point of this offense like so many people keep saying it will if we take a TE in the first.  

[HappyDays]

19 hours ago, LEBills said:

Kincaid, though “cleared,” also had a back fracture which I think is going to drop him further than people expect.

 

I remember the last time the Bills passed on a great TE with back issues.

 

I highly doubt Kincaid will still be on the board at 27 but if he is it's hard to imagine him not sticking out as the BPA. It might feel like a weird pick with Knox already locked up on an extension, but you simply can't pass up on a pass catcher with that level of talent in a weak draft whether TE is a glaring need or not.

[Warriorspikes51]

 

Mingo may be in the conversation

 

6’2 220 Elite top speed.
 

DK Metcalf & AJ Brown type

Edited April 23, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[starrymessenger]

20 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I am not lobbying for Flowers.  But FWIW, Greg Cosell, who has watched a minute of NFL film, profiled Zay Flowers as a WR he saw as being able to play at "all 3 levels" in the NFL.

 

To the OP, I'll point out that the same argument people make against drafting ILB in the first, applies to some extent to TE. 

 

The top 10 WR in the league have $20-$30M/yr AAV contracts.

The top 2 TE in the league have contracts over $15M AAV, Kelce is $14.3M, then it tails off down to $10 Even Engram at $11M

 

By the way of the top 10 salary TE in AAV, only two (Njoku and Engram) were drafted in the 1st round.

I don't see Flowers lining up outside but he can certainly be a factor at each of the three field levels.

[LEBills]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I remember the last time the Bills passed on a great TE with back issues.

 

I highly doubt Kincaid will still be on the board at 27 but if he is it's hard to imagine him not sticking out as the BPA. It might feel like a weird pick with Knox already locked up on an extension, but you simply can't pass up on a pass catcher with that level of talent in a weak draft whether TE is a glaring need or not.

I personally would take the risk and take him if he is there because he can function as a big slot and is excellent against zone so he isn’t limited to a TE2 role.

 

Ive just been watching the draft for so long, there are always a few guys with injuries that slip past where all of us non-insiders expect. Even Gronk was a second rounder and I think Kincaid may fall there too. Additionally, I’m not sure the Bills will think of him as more than a TE2 which in most offenses is a role player. Will be happy to be wrong but we will see in a few days.

[BigAl2526]

Sounds reasonable.  Maybe Addison should be on the list too as Gunner said, but I think the odds are high, maybe 4 to 1 that it will be an offensive player.

[GunnerBill]

36 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I personally would take the risk and take him if he is there because he can function as a big slot and is excellent against zone so he isn’t limited to a TE2 role.

 

Ive just been watching the draft for so long, there are always a few guys with injuries that slip past where all of us non-insiders expect. Even Gronk was a second rounder and I think Kincaid may fall there too. Additionally, I’m not sure the Bills will think of him as more than a TE2 which in most offenses is a role player. Will be happy to be wrong but we will see in a few days.

 

Yea we don't have the medicals. And this regime has been VERY wary of prospects without clean medicals early in the draft. I am not saying that will put them off Kincaid if he is there but it is definitely worth some consideration.

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Mingo may be in the conversation

 

6’2 220 Elite top speed.
 

DK Metcalf & AJ Brown type

 

If we take Mingo at #27 I might put through my very late night coffee cup through my TV. 

[sonyab1974]

On 4/22/2023 at 5:20 PM, RiotAct said:

we’ll probably be drafting around 10:30 - 11 PM I’d imagine?  Assuming we stay put at 27, that is

Oh.. Thank you! I can't wait to see who is picked!!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Anybody but a TE.  I'd favor WR in the 1st.

 

I say no to TE for 3 reasons;

 

First they have Dawson, he's a good to a little better than average TE.  You want to put a 2nd blocking TE out there for some plays fine, but don't need to use a 1st round pick for that.

 

The Bills don't have a noddle armed QB.  Allen can easily throw a 20 yard out, so IMO better to be throwing it to a WR and better to line line up with 3 WR and 1 TE than 2 and 2.  On occasion throwing two TE's out there is fine but again don't need to use a 1st round pick for that.

 

Last and most important, IMO TE is the 2nd toughest position  to project success in college to the NFL.  QB being #1.  There were 5 TE's selected prior to Knox in the 3rd round, not one of them is still with the team that drafted them.  One is playing in Arena league.  It is just too hard to project who will really be good.  Kelce and Kittle were both drafted lower than Knox, Gronk was taken in 2nd.  So to my point, just too hard to project how great college TE's will turn out in pro's, much harder than other positions it seems and the Kittles, Kelce, and Gronks are just too few and far between.

 

For those wanting a TE in round 1, don't blame Beane in 4 years if the guy bombs out,  blame it on desire to take a TE in 1st.  Probably safer to pick TE lower.

[OldTimer1960]

I think Wright, Flowers, Kincaid and Addison could be in play on offense.  None of them transform this offense to a much higher level (in my opinion).  They would all help.

 

I think defensive players should be under consideration here, including CB and S.  My reasoning is that you have to stop the opposition as well as score on a them.  I’m not a big fan of any of the ILBs in this draft.  Ironically, Campbell seems like the high floor safe choice and that IS what I’m looking for, but he seems like a real stretch at 27. 

[GreggTX]

I really think strengthening our OL would pay big dividends and since there aren't any MLB's with a 1st round grade, one of several OT's would be my preference, followed by LB or WR/TE.

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think Wright, Flowers, Kincaid and Addison could be in play on offense.  None of them transform this offense to a much higher level (in my opinion).  They would all help.

 

I think defensive players should be under consideration here, including CB and S.  My reasoning is that you have to stop the opposition as well as score on a them.  I’m not a big fan of any of the ILBs in this draft.  Ironically, Campbell seems like the high floor safe choice and that IS what I’m looking for, but he seems like a real stretch at 27. 

ESPN's model gives Campbell a 50% chance of being available at 59.  An even bigger percentage for Drew Sanders.  Bills fans may have whipped ourselves into an LB frenzy. 

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

I really think strengthening our OL would pay big dividends and since there aren't any MLB's with a 1st round grade, one of several OT's would be my preference, followed by LB or WR/TE.

The question is who exactly are the OTs that are worth taking at 27? Paris Johnson and Broderick Jones are not going to be there. Maybe Darnell Wright. It would be great if a potential LT worthy of the pick were available, but it won't happen and you can get a RT in the second or third.

Edited April 23, 2023 by Dr. Who

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

I really think strengthening our OL would pay big dividends and since there aren't any MLB's with a 1st round grade, one of several OT's would be my preference, followed by LB or WR/TE.

Which OT's do you think are going to be available at 27?

[Governor]

Beane doesn’t have 3 years to wait for a TE to develop so you can take that position away in the 1st round.

[falgobofu]

These small guys are being pushed up the board because of lack of WRs this year. It's rare for a first round small guy to do anything. I hope they don't take flowers. So many diminutive WR busts in the first. T. Austin, J. Ross, W. Fuller just to name a few. Give me a Mingo, Rice, Tillman in the second all day. Get Oline/Mlb/Te in the first. There might be some that were successes but I can't think of any small WR studs in the 1st.