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Is it just me or do we always let offenses convert 3rd downs on us?


Ramza86

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5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If Josh has 2 picks and 3 fumbles, one of them for 6, I will blame him for it.

 

Incredible that 2 picks and 3 fumbles are handwaved and 4/16 is handwaved.  It's fun living in an alternative reality, huh

Nobody is waving it off, we do know both INT weren’t on him, and we know how much is on his shoulders because of the D/coaching 

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3 minutes ago, ßookie_tech said:

Maybe on 3rd/4th and long they might be ranked lower. Overall 3rd down D is pretty solid. 

Maybe. Haven’t been able to find this exact breakdown but perhaps someone will. It’s the NFL so those stats have to exist somewhere. Would be interesting to see. 

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50 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

I think it’s a context thing…we think our team gives up more without really knowing how other teams are doing in that regard.  
 

the bengals converted a bunch of 3rd and longs against the ravens last night 

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46 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

This^

 

As pointed out, the Bills are statistically pretty good on third downs. But it feels like at least once a game we give up a third and 10 or more that just feels deflating.

 

I'd be curious to know what percentage of our third downs surrendered are third and ten or more. I think as fans it's just cumulative fatigue from seeing that a lot this year.


I should not have a pit in my stomach in those situations. Having Miller would really help. Maybe start making Milano a “D-lineman” for pass rush situations given how well he’s been blitzing. I’d be interesting in that stat too. 

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1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

We are not good on critical down and distance. Personally, I think it has a lot to do with no Micha Hyde

He's one of the best in the league at defending the deep ball. I'd love to have him back there against the Bengals. Also, why isn't elam starting again? 

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12 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:


I should not have a pit in my stomach in those situations. Having Miller would really help. Maybe start making Milano a “D-lineman” for pass rush situations given how well he’s been blitzing. I’d be interesting in that stat too. 

I think this is what it boils down to. They’re playing very good defense overall, but doing it short handed. They lack an elite rusher that can get home when a longer pass is required. If they rush 4 ( as they love to do) the QB has too much time; when they blitz the coverage is suspect and the ball comes out faster. It’s a personnel issue and one they probably can’t solve this postseason. Just have to play sound defense and realize that the occasional 3rd and long will get converted when an offense absolutely needs to make a play. 

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Our defense sucks. We are way too soft. Watch the way the Ravens played the Bengals last night. They have zero fear. They set the tone. They don’t sit back on their heels and hope the QB makes a bad throw. We have the pieces. We have so much talent on defense. The lack of aggression from Fraizer is the biggest issue with this team. We need to blitz. We are not getting there with 4. Every good qb has all day to stand there and make throws uncontested. It’s been that way since this guys been here. There’s no way a QB should even have time to hit a developed route on 3rd and long. 3rd and 15, that ball should be out before they can even get to the sticks. Make the qb uncomfortable 

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the defense should be better.  Frazier is trying to cover up many problems at the moment though.   missing Hyde is huge.  Tre isnt nearly 100% yet.   appears Elam isnt good enough to play?  yet makes plays when hes in there.    i dont think Frazier trusts Elam in zone coverage.    Poyer is a soldier,  been playing banged up all year.  Dane is passable but not really elite.   its tough to do much with a back end this underwhelming right now.

 

ill admit the D isnt playing all that great right now,  people want Frazier gone,  be careful of what you wish for.   his D has been more than good enough for many seasons straight,  even with all the injuries.   13-3 with loses by less than a total of 10 points.   the Offense hasnt been great in alot of games.   D is still top 5 in most categories.   Frazier is pushing this D along with scheme and ductape,  making the best of a bad situation.

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28 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Our defense sucks. We are way too soft. Watch the way the Ravens played the Bengals last night. They have zero fear. They set the tone. They don’t sit back on their heels and hope the QB makes a bad throw. We have the pieces. We have so much talent on defense. The lack of aggression from Fraizer is the biggest issue with this team. We need to blitz. We are not getting there with 4. Every good qb has all day to stand there and make throws uncontested. It’s been that way since this guys been here. There’s no way a QB should even have time to hit a developed route on 3rd and long. 3rd and 15, that ball should be out before they can even get to the sticks. Make the qb uncomfortable 

The Bills don’t have the corners that BAL does. When ( if ) White is close to 100% they’ll be improved. They’re not built to play the Ravens style and would probably get burned quite a bit if they tried. 

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2 hours ago, Ramza86 said:

I swear man...I feel like this whole year 3rd and long is about as easy as it gets for opposing offenses.

 

Am I crazy for thinking we are awful on 3rd down?

 

Methinks you need to go and look at the stats......at one point in the Fins game they were only 3 for 9 or 10 on 3rd down conversions.......I could be wrong but I do not believe so.. .

 

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2 hours ago, HOUSE said:

We are not good on critical down and distance. Personally, I think it has a lot to do with no Micha Hyde

Oh ok makes me feel better. I just thought it was because we play 10-12 yds off the opposing receivers and let them do whatever the hell they want too!! Thanks!

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It seems like fans are demanding perfection. Teams are going to get plays against our team sometimes. The rules are designed to allow offenses to make plays against defenses. It's just how it is.

 

Go watch other teams play and pretend you are a fan of either team. You'll see the same type of stuff regardless of what team you watch, although most are worse than the Bills.

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Probably just you since the Bills finished 7th in the NFL on 3rd down percentage.

 

Also the Fins were 4 of 16 on 3rd downs so I am not sure why you would post this after one of the worst 3rd down performances by an opponent of the year.

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2 minutes ago, MJS said:

It seems like fans are demanding perfection. Teams are going to get plays against our team sometimes. The rules are designed to allow offenses to make plays against defenses. It's just how it is.

 

Go watch other teams play and pretend you are a fan of either team. You'll see the same type of stuff regardless of what team you watch, although most are worse than the Bills.

Exactly. Imagine being a Vikings fan yesterday. So many missed tackles.

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Interesting. So we are decent vs 3rd and short, very good at 3rd and mid, and in the bottom quarter in 3rd and long or very long. 

 

3rd and 0-3 - Give up first 59.6% (16th)

3rd and 4-6 - 38.6% (3rd best)

3rd and 7-9 - 38.9% (8th worst)

3rd and 10+ - 23.2% (8th worst)

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5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Interesting. So we are decent vs 3rd and short, very good at 3rd and mid, and in the bottom quarter in 3rd and long or very long. 

 

3rd and 0-3 - Give up first 59.6% (16th)

3rd and 4-6 - 38.6% (3rd best)

3rd and 7-9 - 38.9% (8th worst)

3rd and 10+ - 23.2% (8th worst)

 

This doesn't add up. The Bills finished 7th in the NFL on 3rd down defense this year. Opponents converted 37.5% against them. 

 

It's seems hard to be 7th in the NFL based on the splits you gave. Unless opponents were in 3rd and 4-6 a lot more often than the other distances.

 

Do you have the number of times for each?

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3 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

At first OP said 3rd and long. I'd have to agree a bit and say I get nervous as well. 
then the OP goes on and says the bills are awful in 3rd downs. I disagree with that. 

 

If awful means 7th best in the NFL(6th if you include the playoff game), then yeah, I guess we are awful.

 

What it says more tho is that OP likely doesn't watch very many other games so he has no comparison point 

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3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

This doesn't add up. The Bills finished 7th in the NFL on 3rd down defense this year. Opponents converted 37.5% against them. 

 

It's seems hard to be 7th in the NFL based on the splits you gave. Unless opponents were in 3rd and 4-6 a lot more often than the other distances.

 

Do you have the number of times for each?

3rd & 1-3 = 57    

4-6 = 44

7-9 = 36

10+ = 82

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19 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

If awful means 7th best in the NFL(6th if you include the playoff game), then yeah, I guess we are awful.

 

What it says more tho is that OP likely doesn't watch very many other games so he has no comparison point 

Could be for sure. Cant blame a dude for only watching buffalo games. I know it's tough for me most Sundays with kids and a wife that doesn't like football lol. 

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1 minute ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Could be for sure. Cant blame a dude for only watching buffalo games. I know it's tough for me most Sundays with kids and a wife that doesn't like football lol. 

Are you saying some peoples wives dont want to sit around watching football all day Sunday? While refilling your beer and cooking wings? 

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Just now, ngbills said:

Are you saying some peoples wives dont want to sit around watching football all day Sunday? While refilling your beer and cooking wings? 

Nope. Some guys have priorities to kids and wives who don't like football. So when the game is done they hang with them and do stuff they like to. It's called compromise. 

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