Final 2023 first-round NFL Draft order after Super Bowl

[chongli]

1. Chicago (3-14)

2. Houston (3-13-1)

3. Arizona (4-13)

4. Indianapolis (4-12-1)

5. Seattle (from Denver 5-12, SOS .481)

6. Detroit (from LA Rams 5-12, SOS .517)

7. Las Vegas (6-11)

8. Atlanta (7-10, SOS .467)

9. Carolina (7-10, SOS .474)

10. Philadelphia (from New Orleans 7-10, SOS .507)

11. Tennessee (7-10, SOS .509)

12. Houston (from Cleveland 7-10, SOS .524)

13. NY Jets (7-10, SOS .538)

14. New England (8-9, SOS .502)

15. Green Bay (8-9, SOS .524)

16. Washington (8-8-1)

17. Pittsburgh (9-8, SOS .519)

18. Detroit (9-8, SOS .534)

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19. Tampa Bay (8-9)

20. Seattle (9-8, SOS .462)

21. Miami (9-8, SOS .537) - forfeited

21. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7, SOS .443)

22. Baltimore (10-7, SOS .509)

23. Minnesota (13-4)

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24. Jacksonville (9-8)

25  New York Giants (9-7-1)

26. Dallas (12-5)

27. Buffalo (13-3)

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28. Cincinnati (12-4)

29. New Orleans (from San Francisco, 13-4)

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30. Philadelphia (14-3)

31. Kansas City (14-3)

 

Notes:

 

First tie breaker is strength of schedule (SOS). (The team with the lower SOS will draft before the team with the higher one.)

The draft order of the remaining 14 8 4 2 teams will be determined by playoff finish.

Miami has forfeited its 2023 first-round pick.

 

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by chongli

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Detroit is going to be a beast for the next 10 years. I’d ride with Goff I think. Follow the Kyle Shanahan model and win with defense and a balanced offense that doesn’t ask the QB to be super man.

[Process]

Chicago is going to get a massive haul for that pick 

[MasterStrategist]

19 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Detroit is going to be a beast for the next 10 years. I’d ride with Goff I think. Follow the Kyle Shanahan model and win with defense and a balanced offense that doesn’t ask the QB to be super man.

That could work, but the 49ers offense is loaded with playmakers.  Even before CMC...Kittle,  Deebo, Aiyuk, stable of other RBs, very good oline, excellent scheme/playcalling.

 

That's why a mediocre/game manager qb can keep that train rolling.  Difficult to replicate that, basically Goff was already in a similar situation with the Rams and traded away so they could take the next step forward.

 

Similar to the 49ers who drafted Lance, the Lions would be wise to take a QB high if they really like one coming out.  It's a QB league, and unlikely they win a championship with Goff.

 

 

[chongli]

 

"Buffalo Bills

 

Biggest needs: OL, WR, LB

 

EE [Eric Edholm]: The interior of the offensive line is an area we could absolutely see the Bills wanting to upgrade this offseason, both in terms of talent and depth. But will they use the draft to try to do that? Since GM Brandon Beane has taken over, they’ve not used a Day 1 or 2 pick on a projected guard or center. (2019 second-rounder Cody Ford was tried first at right tackle before being moved inside.)"

[chongli]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Lions have their fair share of good receiving options as well though…. Always get the QB if a great prospect is there. No brainer.

They haven’t used a Day one pick on an offensive player outside of Josh Allen.(not counting the trade for Diggs)

 

Yeah, the last time we drafted an offensive player on Day One (besides Josh) was in 2014, with Sammy Watkins.

[BringBackFergy]

I count 9 teams that need QB help (could conceivably draft a QB). 
 

#thankful4ja

[BobbyC81]

So, did Lovie Smith know he was getting canned so getting a win to lose the 1st pick was a FU to ownership?

[Dr.Sack]

Detroit is loaded and gonna get even more ammo. The question now becomes what positions do they go get?

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Detroit is going to be a beast for the next 10 years. I’d ride with Goff I think. Follow the Kyle Shanahan model and win with defense and a balanced offense that doesn’t ask the QB to be super man.

 

Detroit should do what got them to where they are. Let other teams make stupid mistakes in front of you, forget about positional need and pick the best player available - if that is a QB pick 'em, if not, so be it. That is what has landed them Penei Sewell and Aiden Hutchinson the last two drafts. If you look up "foundational pieces" in the dictionary their faces should appear.

57 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Detroit is loaded and gonna get even more ammo. The question now becomes what positions do they go get?

 

See above. Take the best football players.

Edited January 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[davefan66]

3 hours ago, BringBackFergy said:

I count 9 teams that need QB help (could conceivably draft a QB). 
 

#thankful4ja

Will be interesting what current QB’s get in the mix. 
 

Does Rodgers stay?  Mitch?  Did Tannehill play his way out of Tennessee? If Mr. Irrelevant takes the niners to the dance, what happens with those 3? Brady watch, part..who even knows.  Is Mac on a short leash? Minshew had his chance to shine, wasn’t great. If McVay stays, does he keep Baker.  What about Stafford?   Do the Cards take a huge hit and get rid of Kyler? Ditto Broncos.  Where does Derek Carr end up? Zach Wilson?  Did Heinicke play his way out of Washington?  What happens with Lamar and his contract?

 

Going team by team, didn’t realize how many starters/decent backups could be switching teams next year.  I’m sure some will stay, but there will definitely be movement.  
 

Do teams go with known entities, or draft and hope their guy is the next great QB? Will be an interesting off-season.

Edited January 9, 2023 by davefan66

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, davefan66 said:

Will be interesting what current QB’s get in the mix. 
 

Does Rodgers stay?  Mitch?  Did Tannehill play his way out of Tennessee? If Mr. Irrelevant takes the niners to the dance, what happens with those 3? Brady watch, part..who even knows.  Is Mac on a short leash? Minshew had his chance to shine, wasn’t great. If McVay stays, does he keep Baker.  What about Stafford?   Do the Cards take a huge hit and get rid of Kyler? Ditto Broncos.  Where does Derek Carr end up? Zach Wilson?  Did Heinicke play his way out of Washington?  What happens with Lamar and his contract?

 

Going team by team, didn’t realize how many starters/decent backups could be switching teams next year.  I’m sure some will stay, but there will definitely be movement.  
 

Do teams go with known entities, or draft and hope their guy is the next great QB? Will be an interesting off-season.

You forgot about the Jets.

[BobbyC81]

2 hours ago, davefan66 said:

Will be interesting what current QB’s get in the mix. 
 

Does Rodgers stay?  Mitch?  Did Tannehill play his way out of Tennessee? If Mr. Irrelevant takes the niners to the dance, what happens with those 3? Brady watch, part..who even knows.  Is Mac on a short leash? Minshew had his chance to shine, wasn’t great. If McVay stays, does he keep Baker.  What about Stafford?   Do the Cards take a huge hit and get rid of Kyler? Ditto Broncos.  Where does Derek Carr end up? Zach Wilson?  Did Heinicke play his way out of Washington?  What happens with Lamar and his contract?

 

Going team by team, didn’t realize how many starters/decent backups could be switching teams next year.  I’m sure some will stay, but there will definitely be movement.  
 

Do teams go with known entities, or draft and hope their guy is the next great QB? Will be an interesting off-season.

Although we weren’t shown anything about it on Hard Knocks, I had heard that Kingsbury was getting very frustrated with Murray.  On top of the apparent issue with doing prep work, he supposedly tends to ad lib and not run plays the way they were designed.  Sounds like he kind of wings it like Favre used to.  
 

Of course, the way the Arizona season went, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kingsbury was the one to go.

[JaCrispy]

7 hours ago, Process said:

Chicago is going to get a massive haul for that pick 

I think they will use it on a QB…👍

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Detroit should do what got them to where they are. Let other teams make stupid mistakes in front of you, forget about positional need and pick the best player available - if that is a QB pick 'em, if not, so be it. That is what has landed them Penei Sewell and Aiden Hutchinson the last two drafts. If you look up "foundational pieces" in the dictionary their faces should appear.

 

 

 

Yep. To me Detroit looks like a younger less experienced version of Kyle Shanahan's 49ers. Physical team that can beat you in all ways possible or needed any Sunday. You could argue the 49ers reaching for what they thought was need and talent in Lance rather than the best player available, was a big mistake. But their team is so good top to bottom it won't matter. 

 

Even Goff seems similar to Jimmy G. Goff might actually be better because he is generally available for a full season.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

9 hours ago, Process said:

Chicago is going to get a massive haul for that pick 

I think Arizona will trade back and load up on picks as well.  They'll pick up a better veteran backup QB, wait for Murray to recover from surgery, and fix some serious roster holes with drafted rookies.  They'll probably be picking in the top 10 again in the 2024 draft.

[Utah John]

7 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

So, did Lovie Smith know he was getting canned so getting a win to lose the 1st pick was a FU to ownership?

Lovie Smith was a dedicated Chicago Bear when he was a player.  Getting his team to a win yesterday put the Bears into the top draft pick.  Coincidence?

[SoCal Deek]

This should be interesting. In a draft order where seven of the top nine teams  (not the Raiders or Detroit) could really use a QB upgrade, most will tell you this isn’t a good year for college QBS. I remember well when the Bills were in that position seemingly year after year after year. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

1 minute ago, Utah John said:

Lovie Smith was a dedicated Chicago Bear when he was a player.  Getting his team to a win yesterday put the Bears into the top draft pick.  Coincidence?

I think it was more about trying to hang onto a job than to help a former team.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Lovie Smith was a dedicated Chicago Bear when he was a player.  Getting his team to a win yesterday put the Bears into the top draft pick.  Coincidence?

 

Lovie never played in the NFL. You mean when he coached the Bears?

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

This should be interesting. In a draft order where seven of the top nine teams  (not the Raiders or Detroit) could really use a QB upgrade, most will tell you this isn’t a good year for college QBS. I remember well when the Bills were in that position seemingly year after year after year. 

 

It's better than last year. Probably not as good as the 2021 class, but then those guys have hardly been a roaring success thus far beyond Lawrence figuring it out. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Lovie never played in the NFL. You mean when he coached the Bears?

 

It's better than last year. Probably not as good as the 2021 class, but then those guys have hardly been a roaring success thus far beyond Lawrence figuring it out. 

I trust your analysis far more than mine…but…are there seven guys coming off the board in the first nine picks? I’m guessing not. And that means a whole bunch of those teams are heading into 2023 with essentially no shot at any real improvement. As we learned, some flashy young CB isn’t going to get you where you want to go. 

[Utah John]

20 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I trust your analysis far more than mine…but…are there seven guys coming off the board in the first nine picks? I’m guessing not. And that means a whole bunch of those teams are heading into 2023 with essentially no shot at any real improvement. As we learned, some flashy young CB isn’t going to get you where you want to go. 

If there's a CB as good as Sauce Gardner available, the Bills should do what they need to, to get him.   For any other CB, no.  Sauce Gardner is going to be a pain in the butt for the Bills for a decade.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Utah John said:

If there's a CB as good as Sauce Gardner available, the Bills should do what they need to, to get him.   For any other CB, no.  Sauce Gardner is going to be a pain in the butt for the Bills for a decade.

Thanks…but my comment was about those teams that desperately need a QB. As we witnessed for almost two decades, until you get a decent QB…you are doomed. And all those non-QBs we drafted through those years came and went through Orchard Park with little to no real impact, only to eventually move on to other contenders by the time their rookie contract had expired. I pity the fan base of those QB needy teams. 

[davefan66]

4 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

You forgot about the Jets.

Got a Wilson on the list. Definitely getting the heave-ho.

3 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

Although we weren’t shown anything about it on Hard Knocks, I had heard that Kingsbury was getting very frustrated with Murray.  On top of the apparent issue with doing prep work, he supposedly tends to ad lib and not run plays the way they were designed.  Sounds like he kind of wings it like Favre used to.  
 

Of course, the way the Arizona season went, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kingsbury was the one to go.

Kingsbury May very well be let go.

 

Believe Murray just resigned, cap hit would be prohibitive.

[chongli]

6 hours ago, davefan66 said:

Will be interesting what current QB’s get in the mix. 
 

Does Rodgers stay?  Mitch?  Did Tannehill play his way out of Tennessee? If Mr. Irrelevant takes the niners to the dance, what happens with those 3? Brady watch, part..who even knows.  Is Mac on a short leash? Minshew had his chance to shine, wasn’t great. If McVay stays, does he keep Baker.  What about Stafford?   Do the Cards take a huge hit and get rid of Kyler? Ditto Broncos.  Where does Derek Carr end up? Zach Wilson?  Did Heinicke play his way out of Washington?  What happens with Lamar and his contract?

 

Going team by team, didn’t realize how many starters/decent backups could be switching teams next year.  I’m sure some will stay, but there will definitely be movement.  
 

Do teams go with known entities, or draft and hope their guy is the next great QB? Will be an interesting off-season.

 

Also, the the Bills re-sign Case? 

 

And no way the Rams stick with Baker after what they invested in Stafford.

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by chongli

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I trust your analysis far more than mine…but…are there seven guys coming off the board in the first nine picks? I’m guessing not. And that means a whole bunch of those teams are heading into 2023 with essentially no shot at any real improvement. As we learned, some flashy young CB isn’t going to get you where you want to go. 

 

Seven QBs? No way. I think 3 will likely go top 10 - Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and Will Levis. The way I see the top 10 as of right now:

 

1. Chicago - either takes Will Anderson or trades back. They are going to ride with Fields I think. 

2. Houston - Quarterback

3. Arizona - hard to say as I suspect a house clearing is coming but right now I'd say no QB

4. Indy - Quarterback

5. Seattle - lean towards them waiting until round 2 and taking more of a developmental guy and sticking with Geno for now

6. Detroit - lean towards no Quarterback

7. Las Vegas - I think they will go for a vet QB - either Brady or Jimmy G to run McDaniels scheme

8. Atlanta - Quarterback

9. Carolina - Quarterback

10. Philly - they'd love to go defensive line

 

I think it will come down to Houston, Indy, and one of the two NFC South teams as the ultimate QB pickers. 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[chongli]

 

[AuntieEm]

1 hour ago, Utah John said:

If there's a CB as good as Sauce Gardner available, the Bills should do what they need to, to get him.   For any other CB, no.  Sauce Gardner is going to be a pain in the butt for the Bills for a decade.

 

   Hoping sauce does well but that Jets mess up not pay him or just hope he hates the mj area he's stuck in and  bolts to Bills as a fa.

[78thealltimegreat]

If Goff has figured it out Detroit and Minny should be fighting it out for the division the next few years.

The team I’m watching is the Seahawks at 5 they are already a playoff team with Geno. I could see them taking a flyer on the Anderson kid out of Florida seeing as he has a similar skillset to Russell and if they hit are set to contend for years. 
 

As for the Bills get Josh Allen another receiver already Davis and Mackenzie are too unreliable. The defense has the second most money in the league tied into it I don’t want this team turning into the Aaron Rogers Green Bay Packers and they keep neglecting the WR position. Sean and Leslie will just have to deal with a second or third round defensive prospect as it’s time to go O. 

Edited January 9, 2023 by 78thealltimegreat

[TFBillsfan]

17 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

If Goff has figured it out Detroit and Minny should be fighting it out for the division the next few years.

The team I’m watching is the Seahawks at 5 they are already a playoff team with Geno. I could see them taking a flyer on the Anderson kid out of Florida seeing as he has a similar skillset to Russell and if they hit are set to contend for years. 
 

As for the Bills get Josh Allen another receiver already Davis and Mackenzie are too unreliable. The defense has the second most money in the league tied into it I don’t want this team turning into the Aaron Rogers Green Bay Packers and they keep neglecting the WR position. Sean and Leslie will just have to deal with a second or third round defensive prospect as it’s time to go O. 

Outside of Safety, I’m right there with you. Address the OL and WR. We need another playmaker in the receiving core. 

[Robert Paulson]

8 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

So, did Lovie Smith know he was getting canned so getting a win to lose the 1st pick was a FU to ownership?

my thought  as well

[mannc]

Fix title…only 16 teams.

[BillsShredder83]

I normally think Chicago needs to go QB, as fields is not the answer. however, seems like the top qbs of this draft are very similar, scramble first guys. maybe to lesser degree than fields, but feels redundant to bring in a qb thats not a Grade A level passer. will def make an interesting scenario for #1 overall pick this year

[chongli]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

Fix title…only 16 teams.

 

??

 

Yeah there are only 16 teams with the first 18 picks, but I think everyone knows what I meant. Plus, there were 18 distinct teams that the first 18 picks were ordered upon, 4 of which traded their right to those picks.

Edited January 9, 2023 by chongli

[chongli]

The draft order has now been updated as Super Wildcard Weekend has finished.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 1/8/2023 at 11:40 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Detroit is going to be a beast for the next 10 years. I’d ride with Goff I think. Follow the Kyle Shanahan model and win with defense and a balanced offense that doesn’t ask the QB to be super man.

Ben Johnson is a great listen. 
 

Their coaching staff has so much energy. 

[John from Riverside]

My eyes just go straight to that forfeited Miami pic and a smile on my face

[chongli]

The original post has been updated to the first 28 picks after the completion of this weekend's divisional round.

 

 

[Brand J]

Purgatory.

[chongli]

The draft order has now been updated after the completion of Championship Sunday.