Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF

[K-9]

10 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Morse must have had a very minor concussion to have cleared protocol already. Or possibly they pulled him as a precaution because of his history.

He sustained the concussion 12 days ago so it’s not an inordinate short amount of time. That said, I hope it was indeed a minor concussion.

[NEBranch]

54 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Like 19-y/o Airman Snuffy playing with an F-22.

[Scott7975]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Speaking of that:

 

Thad Brown ought to hang it up if he's got nothing better to do than quote Nick Wrong

 

I broke it down elsewhere that 4 (now 5, after last Saturday) of Allen's fumbles are on center exchange.  6 are strip sacks.  2 on runs.

Now at least one of the center exchange was on Allen, and a couple of the strip sacks were on Allen fighting too hard to extending the play instead of taking the easy yards and living to play another down.

 

But a lot of those fumbles need to be cleaned up elsewhere than Allen - not whiffing blocks, cleaner center exchange (harder when injuries force us down to our 3rd string center).  And those are fumbles, not fumbles lost.

 

Thad Brown really should know better than to parrot as biased a media show as "First Things First", without at least doing some independent thinking.

 

PS if we want to tut-tut over 2 of 3 losses being 2 INT games, let's be sure to tut-tut over 3 wins being 2 INT games

 

 

Huh?  It's been since 12/17, 12 days.

yes Allen does need to clean it up but it always amazes me the bias with some of these guys. Mahomes was tied in ints going into the Chicago game but no one mentions that. Burrow has 4 ints over the last 3 games and 6 over the last 6. No one mentions that either. It’s only a problem for Allen. 

[FLFan]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Come on now. The Bengals have ripped off 7 wins in a row. Beat the Chiefs in that span and just went into Foxboro and won. Now they are at home. Don't sell short what they have accomplished. It's very impressive and to hear your take is pretty disingenuous. Make no mistake about it the Bengals are very very good. They are right there with Buffalo. It's debatable who is the better team. It's not like the Bills are dominating teams. They are winning close games. I don't see much separation between Buffalo, KC, and Cinci. A home field with refs giving the home team favorable calls could be the difference from winning and losing. Very unlikely this Bills team blows out the Bengals on Monday. Burrow shows up in big games. I expect Allen to do the same. 

I think perhaps you need a lesson in reading comprehension as well as manners.

 

I never said the Bengals were not good.  In fact I said the opposite.  What I did say is they are getting far too much respect relative to the Bills.  This is at best a pick em game, although the Bills are favored with good reason. I did not predict blowout.  I did say it is likely to be close but a 10 point Bills win would not surprise me.  I think the Bills are the better team.  Offensive and defensive stats as well as record for the year to date bear that out.  Even with all the gushing over Burrow, he and Josh Allen stats are very close. (an aside - despite all the angst over Josh's performance this year, he ahead of pace over last year in virtually all categories)  I would rather have Allen in a big game - he offers more.  

 

Hopefully now you understand the point I was actually making.  Next time read more carefully before impugning my honesty and my intelligence.

[YattaOkasan]

52 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Maybe not a great thing but still it's a really good win for the Bengals. It's not easy going into Foxboro in December. NE was and is fighting for a playoff spot and their defense is good. Let's not make it like it was a nothing burger. 

Agree it’s a good win. But it’s also a strange one. More yards than we had but also more turnovers. I think both teams went into Foxboro and took care of business and both are great wins.
 

I’ll give us the slight nod on game script. We were a bit slow out the gate but did very well in the second half with a huge drive that ate over half a quarter. That took everything out of the game and if we have that type of drive Monday we will win. 
 

Oddly bengals had that weird hold on for dear life game with the pick six and chase fumble after a near perfect first half. Burrow is usually great in the 4th quarter so it was a bit weird to see them struggle. 

[Chandler#81]

Roland Hooks huge game vs. Cinci 

 

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

Does anyone else get the impression that Josh doesn't like Joe Burrow very much?

 

Yeah he says all the right polite things ..."yeah, I know him, he trained with Jordan, the dude's all ball, he really loves football" "heckuva talent, heckuva player" "got a lot of respect for him as a person, as a player" "we've had some  (pause) interactions over the last couple of years, some conversations (pause) but I have got the utmost respect for him, especially after his rookie year, the injury, coming back and lighting the league on fire, it's been super impressive to watch" 

 

I don't know, it's all very best-behaved and polite, but I just have the impression that maybe the two of them just don't like each other much - vs. - some of the things I've heard Josh say about other QB like Mahomes and Jackson and Rodgers.

 

Maybe it just struck me by contrast with Josh being asked next about Logan Wilson, his former Wyo teammate "in my phone as LJ Wilson, Governor" "off the field, one of the best dudes you'll ever meet"

Edited December 29, 2022 by Beck Water

[Greg S]

9 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Roland Hooks huge game vs. Cinci 

 

 

In those days attendance was brutal. I looked it up. The game was week 2 played on 9/9/79. The crowd was 43,504

[JerseyBills]

Diggs missed practice with an illness 

[Dick_Cheney]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Does anyone else get the impression that Josh doesn't like Joe Burrow very much?

 

Yeah he says all the right polite things ..."yeah, I know him, he trained with Jordan, the dude's all ball, he really loves football" "heckuva talent, heckuva player" "got a lot of respect for him as a person, as a player" "we've had some  (pause) interactions over the last couple of years, some conversations (pause) but I have got the utmost respect for him, especially after his rookie year, the injury, coming back and lighting the league on fire, it's been super impressive to watch" 

 

I don't know, it's all very best-behaved and polite, but I just have the impression that maybe the two of them don't like each other that much - vs. - some of the things I've heard Josh say about other QB like Mahomes and Jackson and Rodgers.

If I had to guess, Allen probably caught wind of Burrow talking ***** about him, considering Burrow is much more of a cocky hot shot sort of guy than Allen usually comes off as. That, combined with Burrow making it to a Super Bowl before Allen, could definitely lead to some irritation between the two.

 

I think that Allen and Mahomes have a genuine respect and appreciation for one another. The fact that Allen has to straight up come out and say that he respects Burrow, that tells me a lot.

[Beck Water]

 

Mitch Morse asked his reaction to making the Pro Bowl: "well, at first, I thought they had mis-spelled Matt Milano's name on the piece of paper...I'm still under the impression that they did"

 

😂😂

 

This Team!

[ColoradoBills]

I'm a simple man and like simple things.

Bills beat the Bengals and Pats* and clinch the bye.

 

Let the rest of the Division worry about who plays who in the Wildcard Round.

Bills host one of Dolphins, Chargers, Ravens if one of the wildcard teams win or else the Jaguars.

Most likely that the Chiefs host the Bengals!

[newcam2012]

43 minutes ago, FLFan said:

I think perhaps you need a lesson in reading comprehension as well as manners.

 

I never said the Bengals were not good.  In fact I said the opposite.  What I did say is they are getting far too much respect relative to the Bills.  This is at best a pick em game, although the Bills are favored with good reason. I did not predict blowout.  I did say it is likely to be close but a 10 point Bills win would not surprise me.  I think the Bills are the better team.  Offensive and defensive stats as well as record for the year to date bear that out.  Even with all the gushing over Burrow, he and Josh Allen stats are very close. (an aside - despite all the angst over Josh's performance this year, he ahead of pace over last year in virtually all categories)  I would rather have Allen in a big game - he offers more.  

 

Hopefully now you understand the point I was actually making.  Next time read more carefully before impugning my honesty and my intelligence.

I'm not going to get into any kind of altercation here. I stand by everything I said. This post here you have moved the goal post. So be it, no need for a back and forth banter. 

[Rocky Landing]

24 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Does anyone else get the impression that Josh doesn't like Joe Burrow very much?

 

Yeah he says all the right polite things ..."yeah, I know him, he trained with Jordan, the dude's all ball, he really loves football" "heckuva talent, heckuva player" "got a lot of respect for him as a person, as a player" "we've had some  (pause) interactions over the last couple of years, some conversations (pause) but I have got the utmost respect for him, especially after his rookie year, the injury, coming back and lighting the league on fire, it's been super impressive to watch" 

 

I don't know, it's all very best-behaved and polite, but I just have the impression that maybe the two of them just don't like each other much - vs. - some of the things I've heard Josh say about other QB like Mahomes and Jackson and Rodgers.

 

Maybe it just struck me by contrast with Josh being asked next about Logan Wilson, his former Wyo teammate "in my phone as LJ Wilson, Governor" "off the field, one of the best dudes you'll ever meet"

I don't get that impression at all. My read is that they really don't know each other all that well, whereas Mahomes, and Rodgers have golfed together in that tournament, and have certainly had more interaction.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

32 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Does anyone else get the impression that Josh doesn't like Joe Burrow very much?

 

Yeah he says all the right polite things ..."yeah, I know him, he trained with Jordan, the dude's all ball, he really loves football" "heckuva talent, heckuva player" "got a lot of respect for him as a person, as a player" "we've had some  (pause) interactions over the last couple of years, some conversations (pause) but I have got the utmost respect for him, especially after his rookie year, the injury, coming back and lighting the league on fire, it's been super impressive to watch" 

 

I don't know, it's all very best-behaved and polite, but I just have the impression that maybe the two of them just don't like each other much - vs. - some of the things I've heard Josh say about other QB like Mahomes and Jackson and Rodgers.

 

Maybe it just struck me by contrast with Josh being asked next about Logan Wilson, his former Wyo teammate "in my phone as LJ Wilson, Governor" "off the field, one of the best dudes you'll ever meet"

I got the impression he doesn't actually know Burrow very well personally. Which isn't surprising. 

[Beck Water]

10 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I don't get that impression at all. My read is that they really don't know each other all that well, whereas Mahomes, and Rodgers have golfed together in that tournament, and have certainly had more interaction.

 

Allen said that Burrows trained with Jordan Palmer.  

 

I believe Palmer has all the guys he trains with working on the same field at times, and also has them meet weekly and watch film together etc.

 

So in terms of time spent together, it seems probable that Allen has spent more time interacting with Burrows than either Mahomes or Rodgers. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Beck Water

[Awwufelloff]

Bengals were in superbowl last year. Didn't they win 3 away games along the way including the Chiefs? They are a better team than us until proven otherwise. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Awwufelloff

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

I got the impression he doesn't actually know Burrow very well personally. Which isn't surprising. 

 

That could still be true, if Burrow didn't want to interact beyond whatever training interactions they had with Palmer.

[BRH]

42 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Does anyone else get the impression that Josh doesn't like Joe Burrow very much?

 

Yeah he says all the right polite things ..."yeah, I know him, he trained with Jordan, the dude's all ball, he really loves football" "heckuva talent, heckuva player" "got a lot of respect for him as a person, as a player" "we've had some  (pause) interactions over the last couple of years, some conversations (pause) but I have got the utmost respect for him, especially after his rookie year, the injury, coming back and lighting the league on fire, it's been super impressive to watch" 

 

I don't know, it's all very best-behaved and polite, but I just have the impression that maybe the two of them just don't like each other much - vs. - some of the things I've heard Josh say about other QB like Mahomes and Jackson and Rodgers.

 

Maybe it just struck me by contrast with Josh being asked next about Logan Wilson, his former Wyo teammate "in my phone as LJ Wilson, Governor" "off the field, one of the best dudes you'll ever meet"

“I respect him” is the sports equivalent of senators referring to each other as “my esteemed colleague.”

 

I hope there’s something underneath all that.  Like Sidney Deane, Josh plays better when he’s pissed off. 

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Bengals were in superbowl last year. Didn't they win 3 away games along the way including the Chiefs? They are a better team than us until proven otherwise. 

 

Whatever gets you through the night.

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Bengals were in superbowl last year. Didn't they win 3 away games along the way including the Chiefs? They are a better team than us until proven otherwise. 

 

They played Las Vegas at home, then Tennessee and KC on the road.  Give them their Propers.  They had a good plan for Tennessee and a good plan for KC/Tenn.  But that's 2 home games, not 3.

 

As for this "better team than us until proven otherwise", if you're talking about last season, one of the mid-70s Pittsburgh Steelers has a comment for you:

"You better take those rings off and put them on a shelf, Boys; they won't help us this year".

[Solomon Grundy]

42 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Diggs missed practice with an illness 

Probably from eating his own cooking😎

[Fleezoid]

Me on Monday ......

 

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

It probably was a message board overstatement, but people like Skip Bayless and Mina Kimes are almost giddy the morning after Josh has a bad game. Bayless was saying that he would take Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen until earlier THIS SEASON. Mike Tannenbaum still says that he would take Justin Herbert over Josh. The reason for all this is because they want to have their draft night takes proven right. 

I just wanna make Mahomes play a road playoff game for once.

 

I put this up elsewhere, but I think this series of breakdowns from Baldy kind of illustrate part of the reason.

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/baldinger-s-film-breakdown-of-josh-allen-s-best-plays-ahead-of-mnf-vs-bengals

 

As he puts it, Burrow and Allen are different QB.  Burrow is all about timing and rhythm and getting the ball out on time to the right guy.

 

Allen may or may not have a guy he could get the ball out to in rhythm, but he will create off script and off platform.

 

I think for a lot of analysts, Josh Allen has them wondering when the Pixie Dust will wear off and they have more understanding of, thus more faith in, a guy who plays as well within a system as Burrows can.

[Mojo44]

33 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

Bengals were in superbowl last year. Didn't they win 3 away games along the way including the Chiefs? They are a better team than us until proven otherwise. 

This take is so last year and, consequently, irrelevant to the current situation.

[TBBills]

1 minute ago, Mojo44 said:

This take is so last year and, consequently, irrelevant to the current situation.

Hey man the Rams won the Super Bowl last year they are a better team... oh wait

[BillnutinHouston]

1 hour ago, BRH said:

“In uniform for practice today” does not necessarily mean “practicing.”

 

Agree.  I'll use any old excuse to wear orange.

 

[TBBills]

I cannot believe the playoffs start this Monday!

[boyst]

Morse cleared concussion protocol.  This is bigly 

 

Benford also has window open to return. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by boyst

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Agreed.  Monday night is massive.  While an L doesn’t mean our season is over by any means, it almost halves our chances of making the SB imo.  

I'd say not "almost halves", but "more than halves". It's really massive.

 

If we lose, it will most likely go (numbers are obviously just my random guesses):

 

WC at home vs Chargers/Dolphins - 70%

Div on road vs Bengals - 55% (I'd say we will be actually bigger favorites than now since it's hard to beat same team twice in a row)

AFCCG on road vs Chiefs - 50%

SB - 55%

 

If we win:

Bye

Div at home vs Titans/Jags/Ravens - 75%

AFCCG at home vs Chiefs - 55%

SB - 55%

 

So by my numbers we have less than 11% to win SB if we lose and almost 23% if we win. 538 has it even worse - 11% if we lose, 29% if we win - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/. That is brutal difference.

 

All of it is simplified, since loss doesn't automatically means we are 3 seed, both Chiefs and Bengals might still lose another game (and we can also lose to Pats if we win). But it applies in general. This is really a huge game.

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not going to get into any kind of altercation here. I stand by everything I said. This post here you have moved the goal post. So be it, no need for a back and forth banter. 

I did not move anything.  Now who is being disingenuous?  I have had it with your game for some time.  Welcome to ignore.  

[BRH]

6 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

This is really a huge game.

Bigger for us than for them, since they would still need help to get the 1 seed and the bye if they win, whereas we will continue to control our own destiny when we win.  

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Allen said that Burrows trained with Jordan Palmer.  

 

I believe Palmer has all the guys he trains with working on the same field at times, and also has them meet weekly and watch film together etc.

 

So in terms of time spent together, it seems probable that Allen has spent more time interacting with Burrows than either Mahomes or Rodgers. 

 

 

 

 

Kinda all business, though...

[astb41]

random time sensitive question here and didn't know where to ask it.  I have the chance to snag 2 tickets in the M&T Club for a playoff game for face value.  This would be my first time at a Bills home game, and the indoor seating feels like I'd be losing some of the experience watching through glass and not out in the elements with the people.  Even though it would keep us out of the cold.  Do ya'll recommend the M&T club seats?  Does it include food or drinks or anything?  Thanks!  sorry for posting this here.

[Greg S]

Me on Monday night between 8:30 and 11:30 or so. I really believe if the Bills win this one then they are SB bound. Let KC, CIN or anyone come to OP and try to get a win.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Greg S

[eball]

7 minutes ago, astb41 said:

random time sensitive question here and didn't know where to ask it.  I have the chance to snag 2 tickets in the M&T Club for a playoff game for face value.  This would be my first time at a Bills home game, and the indoor seating feels like I'd be losing some of the experience watching through glass and not out in the elements with the people.  Even though it would keep us out of the cold.  Do ya'll recommend the M&T club seats?  Does it include food or drinks or anything?  Thanks!  sorry for posting this here.

 

Dude, go for it.  You'll be at a playoff game without having to worry about the elements.  I think those enclosed clubs include catering, but I don't know for sure.

 

[Logic]

9 minutes ago, astb41 said:

random time sensitive question here and didn't know where to ask it.  I have the chance to snag 2 tickets in the M&T Club for a playoff game for face value.  This would be my first time at a Bills home game, and the indoor seating feels like I'd be losing some of the experience watching through glass and not out in the elements with the people.  Even though it would keep us out of the cold.  Do ya'll recommend the M&T club seats?  Does it include food or drinks or anything?  Thanks!  sorry for posting this here.

 

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

Dude, go for it.  You'll be at a playoff game without having to worry about the elements.  I think those enclosed clubs include catering, but I don't know for sure.

 

What Eball said.

Not only that, but I promise you, that if you feel at any time during the game like you're missing out and would rather be in the elements with the rowdies, just walk down to the cheap seats and ask if anyone within earshot would like to trade their two seats for your two club level tickets. You'll have no trouble making the swap.

[astb41]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

What Eball said.

Not only that, but I promise you, that if you feel at any time during the game like you're missing out and would rather be in the elements with the rowdies, just walk down to the cheap seats and ask if anyone within earshot would like to trade their two seats for your two club level tickets. You'll have no trouble making the swap.

 

Thanks!  Good call on the swap haha, didn't think of that!

[eball]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

What Eball said.

Not only that, but I promise you, that if you feel at any time during the game like you're missing out and would rather be in the elements with the rowdies, just walk down to the cheap seats and ask if anyone within earshot would like to trade their two seats for your two club level tickets. You'll have no trouble making the swap.

 

Just an FYI, the M&T Club is not the "typical" club seating...all of the seats are behind glass.

 

[ColoradoBills]

25 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I'd say not "almost halves", but "more than halves". It's really massive.

 

If we lose, it will most likely go (numbers are obviously just my random guesses):

 

WC at home vs Chargers/Dolphins - 70%

Div on road vs Bengals - 55% (I'd say we will be actually bigger favorites than now since it's hard to beat same team twice in a row)

AFCCG on road vs Chiefs - 50%

SB - 55%

 

If we win:

Bye

Div at home vs Titans/Jags/Ravens - 75%

AFCCG at home vs Chiefs - 55%

SB - 55%

 

So by my numbers we have less than 11% to win SB if we lose and almost 23% if we win. 538 has it even worse - 11% if we lose, 29% if we win - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/. That is brutal difference.

 

All of it is simplified, since loss doesn't automatically means we are 3 seed, both Chiefs and Bengals might still lose another game (and we can also lose to Pats if we win). But it applies in general. This is really a huge game.

 

 

First off, thanks for the 538 site.  I'm not going to crunch the numbers (I know you are using a guesstimate) but the overall

"Getting the Bye" increasing the chances of a SB being doubled, makes perfect sense to me.

 

It also goes to show that a "Superbowl" favorite does not have as much of a statistical advantage as most "I'm not good at math" people

think. I'm going to keep an eye on this site as to their probability numbers and if I have some points to make, I will let you see them.