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Bills open as 9.5 favorites against Jets(10.5 some places)


Big Turk

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3 hours ago, DapperCam said:

That doesn’t sound right.

 

For example in the way you’ve set things up, a team with a 90% chance to win any given game would have a 100% chance of losing after 10 games (which obviously isn’t right).

 

I think you are looking for the chance the team loses at least one game, which is one minus the chance the team wins all of the games.

 

So 1 - 0.9^5 for 5 remaining games. Or about 40% chance you lose at least one game.

.

And this is why I failed my "Intro to Stats" class.

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This game won’t be easy. The Jets defense is really tough and they are moving the ball a little now. They have really good WRs and obviously ran all over us. We need to just get healthy and find a way to bury this team. I live an hour from met life I can’t listen to another week of this Mike White *****. The guy is Trent Edwards 2.0

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10 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

 the most important question probability wise is how much more likely the chiefs are to win out than us though I’d say.  They’re more likely to do it but I don’t think it’s by an overwhelmingly huge margin 

 

The Bengals have a good shot at the 1 seed if they win out as well.  It's not just a two-team race

 

As for the spread being high, considering that it was 10.5 at the Jets and now the game is in Buffalo, the oddsmakers have already made a big adjustment.  I certainly wouldn't run to bet the Jets at 9.5 in Buffalo.

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The Jets have a good defense. Their offense has been better with White. They really should have won yesterday but thankfully they didn't. I would take the Jets and the points. The Bills should win but the Jets will give them a game. I am going to say it will be something like 23-20 Bills.

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1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

This game won’t be easy. The Jets defense is really tough and they are moving the ball a little now. They have really good WRs and obviously ran all over us. We need to just get healthy and find a way to bury this team. I live an hour from met life I can’t listen to another week of this Mike White *****. The guy is Trent Edwards 2.0

 

I live 20 minutes from MetLife. Many of my family, friends, and co-workers are Jets fans. When the Bills lost to them, I had to listen to their crap. Hopefully that won't be the case this time.

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51 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I live 20 minutes from MetLife. Many of my family, friends, and co-workers are Jets fans. When the Bills lost to them, I had to listen to their crap. Hopefully that won't be the case this time.

I’m so happy they lost that game yesterday. I can’t listen to this Mike White ***** again. All you can hope is the Bills just completely shut them down this week.

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Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I’m so happy they lost that game yesterday. I can’t listen to this Mike White ***** again. All you can hope is the Bills just completely shut them down this week.

 

I think this is going to be a tough game. Unfortunately, the Jets have a good team. I think the Bills win but it will probably be a one score game throughout. I don't get the Mike White hype either. He is the best they have but being better than Wilson/Flacco isn't saying much. Have to think Wilson is done in NY. Deactivated for a 2nd straight game isn't a good look.

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7 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:


Ok… thanks for the clarification on that …

 

Whilst my maths was wrong … I was trying to make the point that just because you are the favourite in every game… even a strong favourite… stringing 5 wins in a row together ain’t a walk in the park…

 

I doth my cap, sir. 

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2 hours ago, harryS said:

 

The Bengals have a good shot at the 1 seed if they win out as well.  It's not just a two-team race

 

As for the spread being high, considering that it was 10.5 at the Jets and now the game is in Buffalo, the oddsmakers have already made a big adjustment.  I certainly wouldn't run to bet the Jets at 9.5 in Buffalo.

I really wouldn’t either…I think as a message board we’ve fallen into the same trap as the pats game lol. We are giving the opponents the appropriate credit but vastly underrating our own team.  I don’t think our defense is far behind the jets with edmunds,poyer, and tre white playing and we have a much better offense 

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People need to stop worrying about the big points spread.  Vegas for the most part knows what they are doing.  They believe home field coupled with the fact that the Bills are the better team by a lot is why the spread is so wide.  Bills fans need to start embracing the fact people think we are the best team in the league.

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Id like to see that Jets play in our playbook.  Not sure what they call it. It was when the back ran towards the sideline and the QB acted like he was going to throw downfield but then went to the back who had no one around him and he was able to pick up 10 yards.  There was a play sequence where the Jets ran that 3 times in a row yesterday and it worked every time.  Twice to one side and once to the other.  Vikings finally clamped it down on their fourth try.  That one looked to be going to a TE instead of the back though.

 

That is a great play to pick up some cheap yards.  All the offenses run it to some extent.  I think we have even run it as well but I think Josh isnt patient enough with it and he looks and throws the ball right away instead of trying to let receivers clear out the area, so no one is fooled and the back doesnt get much.

Edited by Scott7975
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These lines still make no sense but I do believe that if the same hungry team that showed up in NE comes to play they are going to dominate the Jets and their backup QB.

 

In some ways I was almost hoping the Jets would win against the Vikings to come in way overconfident but now I think they'll fade early once White starts turning the ball over again which already started yesterday.

 

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4 hours ago, hemma said:

I think we were missing White, Poyer, Milano and Rousseau for 1/2, so they were definitely up against a much weaker D.

 

I think we step on their throats and cover that spread.  Rare for me as I am usually an arm flapper.

I really believe many of our problems from the GB game through the Detoit game were injury related, even spreading to the offense with complementary football stuff.

 

When we have Edmunds, Milano, Greg, Von, Poyer out there I think we are almost unbeatable on defense. Our issue is depth, and the talent level falls off a cliff when any one of them is out let alone two of them.

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44 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

These lines still make no sense but I do believe that if the same hungry (and healthy) team that showed up in NE comes to play they are going to dominate the Jets and their backup QB.

 

In some ways I was almost hoping the Jets would win against the Vikings to come in way overconfident but now I think they'll fade early once White starts turning the ball over again which already started yesterday.

 

 

Added for emphasis.  I think the bolded is more important than gauging the Bills' "hunger."

 

Mike White is absolutely a gunslinger and turnover machine.  If the Jets don't rein him in it will be ugly against a good defense like Buffalo has.

 

 

Edited by eball
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12 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:


Ok… thanks for the clarification on that …

 

Whilst my maths was wrong … I was trying to make the point that just because you are the favourite in every game… even a strong favourite… stringing 5 wins in a row together ain’t a walk in the park…

They’ve done studies ya know.  60% of the time, it works every time!

 

 

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7 hours ago, hemma said:

I think we were missing White, Poyer, Milano and Rousseau for 1/2, so they were definitely up against a much weaker D.

 

I think we step on their throats and cover that spread.  Rare for me as I am usually an arm flapper.

 

I tend to agree.  To reiterate, the line closed at 10.5 at the Jets.  Flipping homefield, it should take the line to 14.  Instead the line is 9, so the oddsmakers have already adjusted 5 points.  They really can't make this much shorter.

 

I'm taking 9, and I would love to tease an 8 or 8.5 down as well if they pop on the screen.

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