Jump to content

Chiefs at Bengals Game thread - 4:25 PM Kickoff


BuffaloBill

Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

This is all results oriented thinking

it's a very common way of looking at outcomes but leads to inefficient decision making

Ā 

I should probably stay out of this, but fools rush in where

Ā 

What I think Iā€™m hearing from you and @HappyDaysĀ seems to me like the somewhat different statistical conclusions reached by Bayesian and non-Bayesian statistics. Ā Itā€™s analogous to the ā€œMonty Hall Problemā€. The classical statistics approach is to look at the set conditions and calculate a generally applicable probability. Ā The Bayesian statistical approach is to utilize additional information available to modify analysis. Ā In the case of the ā€œ4th Down Botā€ the information would include how successful the specific IOL is at the play, how successful the DL is at stuffing it, any other available details applicable to that given situation with those specific teams.

Ā 

JMO

Ā 

But if you look at the link above, youā€™ll see that the Monty Hall Problem was hotly contested by very knowledgeable smart people, both ways

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Beck Water said:

Ā 

I should probably stay out of this, but fools rush in where

Ā 

What I think Iā€™m hearing from you and @HappyDaysĀ seems to me like the somewhat different statistical conclusions reached by Bayesian and non-Bayesian statistics. Ā Itā€™s analogous to the ā€œMonty Hall Problemā€. The classical statistics approach is to look at the set conditions and calculate a generally applicable probability. Ā The Bayesian statistical approach is to utilize additional information available to modify analysis. Ā In the case of the ā€œ4th Down Botā€ the information would include how successful the specific IOL is at the play, how successful the DL is at stuffing it, any other available details applicable to that given situation with those specific teams.

Ā 

JMO

Ā 

But if you look at the link above, youā€™ll see that the Monty Hall Problem was hotly contested by very knowledgeable smart people, both ways

I will never claim to be a smart knowledgeable personšŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a very specific reason to revive this one.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...