Best Williams Available Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Ridiculous these random guys make plays all the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Matter_What Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, HappyDays said: You can't possibly prove that that was the correct decision. The simple answer is that they are now tied instead of winning by 3. Doesn't look either team is going to run away with this one. Those points matter. I am not arguing about this specific decision. But man cmon. You can't say a decision is wrong just because the result is. What matters is what nets more points in the long run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsatlastin2018 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Can ANY of these Bungles ever get a jump ball? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, stevestojan said: Romo has gotten to the point where he’s blowing Mahommes after routine plays. They just did a replay of a run a of the mill short completion and Romo “just look at his eyes.” Yeah!!! He was watching the receiver the whole way🤷♂️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 MVS with the great catch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralonzo Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Hopefully that drop disabuses Cinci of the notion to use Chase as a decoy. If he looks covered, he's open, throw it to him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Behindenemylines Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, stevestojan said: Romo has gotten to the point where he’s blowing Mahommes after routine plays. They just did a replay of a run a of the mill short completion and Romo “just look at his eyes.” Never liked Romo announcing. Takes the fun out of watching and he more than blows the Rat on every play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nephilim17 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, stevestojan said: Romo has gotten to the point where he’s blowing Mahommes after routine plays. They just did a replay of a run a of the mill short completion and Romo “just look at his eyes.” It's a quarterback driven league and Mahomes has the best start of any QB in history... It's only natural that the announcers are going hype the good QBs in general and Mahomes specifically. now, I still wanna see him get crushed and lose... Edited December 4, 2022 by Nephilim17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Very easy Oh the 4th down decision bot. Where can I find the calculations used to come up with those weirdly specific numbers? I also like how even the bot shows that a successful FG equates to better win percentage than a failed go for it. I would take the sure points over the 35% failure chance every single time in that situation. I mean jeez the bot shows a 4% win probability difference between the decisions and you think it's really that easy? I mean I don't inherently just believe these random numbers I'm throwing out there, but even by the bot's own logic it makes sense to take the 3 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 This will be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Lucky horseshoe sticking halfway out Mahomes butt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Mahomes channeling Allen there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Great call by the refs in real time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said: What matters is what nets more points in the long run. The long run of what? A team might have one or two of those decisions per game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Very easy Doesn’t that show that the win % is higher if you successfully kick a FG than if you fail to convert a go for it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WyoAZBillfan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Could’ve called that either way it looked. Maybe slipping, maybe held.🤷🏼♂️ sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, HappyDays said: Oh the 4th down decision bot. Where can I find the calculations used to come up with those weirdly specific numbers? I also like how even the bot shows that a successful FG equates to better win percentage than a failed go for it. I would take the sure points over the 35% failure chance every single time in that situation. I mean jeez the bot shows a 4% win probability difference between the decisions and you think it's really that easy? I mean I don't inherently just believe these random numbers I'm throwing out there, but even by the bot's own logic it makes sense to take the 3 points. Do you seriously not understand this relatively simple calculation? WIN% is just EV basically simple example is 2pt vs PAT: success rate of PAT (1 pt) is 94.1 so EV of a PAT= .941 success rate of a 2pt try (2pts) is 49.4% so EV of a 2pt attempt= .988 WIN% is just these EVs calculated wrt to down distance and time left in game over the recorded logs of NFL plays in same circumstances 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 not even a discussion? that’s some bull Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, Beck Water said: Doesn’t that show that the win % is higher if you successfully kick a FG than if you fail to convert a go for it? Yes that should be obvious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said: Never liked Romo announcing. Takes the fun out of watching and he more than blows the Rat on every play. Romo on Mahomes....Charles Davis on the Jets...I thought these clowns were supposed to announce a game impartially? Takes away from the whole broadcast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: Do you seriously not understand this relatively simple calculation? WIN% is just EV basically simple example is 2pt vs PAT: success rate of PAT (1 pt) is 94.1 so EV of a PAT= .941 success rate of a 2pt try (2pts) is 49.4% so EV of a 2pt attempt= .988 WIN% is just these EVs calculated wrt to down distance and time left in game over the recorded logs of NFL plays in same circumstances This is painful watching you try to explain this. You’re doing god’s work, my friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 If only Boyd hadn’t dropped that TD Oh crap gonna be holding against the Bengals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 FYI anyone can access the 4th down bot if they desire its here https://cloud.r-project.org/web/packages/nfl4th/index.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Williams Available Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Beck Water said: If only Boyd hadn’t dropped that TD I want Cincy too but that was an obvs pick so screw em Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 My Goodness! Burrows makes something happen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Beck Water said: If only Boyd hadn’t dropped that TD Oh crap gonna be holding against the Bengals it's the woulda coulda shouldas that drive a person to drink Beck. YEP Edited December 4, 2022 by muppy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: simple example is 2pt vs PAT: success rate of PAT (1 pt) is 94.1 so EV of a PAT= .941 success rate of a 2pt try (2pts) is 49.4% so EV of a 2pt attempt= .988 So... a team should always go for 2 points no matter what? I don't buy that. 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: WIN% is just these EVs calculated wrt to down distance and time left in game over the recorded logs of NFL plays in same circumstances Except the bot doesn't actually know the conversion percentage on that play against that defense in that 4th and short situation. That's where the whole thing falls apart. You can't just use recorded logs of other matchups against other teams and act like that number is gospel. I get what the bot is trying to do but it's method doesn't pass basic scrutiny. It's just a thing the entire internet has decided to believe in for no reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterStrategist Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Cincy hopefully ties it up this drive... Eventually that Mahomes luck will fade this game and Bengals will get a couple bounce their way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Matter_What Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, HappyDays said: The long run of what? A team might have one or two of those decisions per game. Happy, if you need to ask this question then I am sorry you don't understand the basics of decision making. You make the decision which has higher EV. Unless the data used by twitter account which @GoBills808 quoted are completely wrong (which I really doubt), it's a no-brainer decision to go for it. And I think it's fairly obvious even without maths. But I rest my case here, it's fine if you believe otherwise. 8 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Edited December 4, 2022 by No_Matter_What 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, HappyDays said: So... a team should always go for 2 points no matter what? I don't buy that. Except the bot doesn't actually know the conversion percentage on that play against that defense in that 4th and short situation. That's where the whole thing falls apart. You can't just use recorded logs of other matchups against other teams and act like that number is gospel. I get what the bot is trying to do but it's method doesn't pass basic scrutiny. It's just a thing the entire internet has decided to believe in for no reason. This is all results oriented thinking it's a very common way of looking at outcomes but leads to inefficient decision making 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Best Williams Available said: I want Cincy too but that was an obvs pick so screw em ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shortchaz Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: This is all results oriented thinking it's a very common way of looking at outcomes but leads to inefficient decision making Damn son Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsatlastin2018 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 ***** clown… OOB! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fallser Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 That 3 points the Bungles gave up in the first half is going to haunt them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKBillFan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said: Cincy hopefully ties it up this drive... Eventually that Mahomes luck will fade this game and Bengals will get a couple bounce their way We're still waiting for a fumble to bounce our way and we've gone through week thirteen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Missed opportunities hurting the Bengals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsatlastin2018 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Another useless FG! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real McClappy Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 These FG's are not going to get it done for Cincy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I know it wasnt a catch but Chase/Higgins combo is not fair. Bengals are blowing this 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsatlastin2018 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 There you go… 0 for 3 last Red Zone drives! Spells an L against Mahomes. Neither of these teams are coming through for the Bills,today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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