Christian McCaffrey traded to the 49ers for multiple 2nd day draft picks

[Draconator]

25 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

 

Imagine the 49ers winning the Superbowl, then trading CMC for a 1st and 3rd.

 

 

To Carolina

[HappyDays]

 

[Billever76]

15 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Lol the 49ers are incredibly dumb. This might be the worst trade I've ever seen. In 2023 they now have two 3rds, a 5th and a 7th. With no franchise QB to build around. Unbelievably awful team building strategy.

They must believe Lance is the franchise qb would be my only rational behind this trade

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

They've played as a pretty heavy rushing team for years now, with just... UDFAs at running back.  Now they're adding one of the best in the league, and they have him under contract for years.  It's interesting.  

 

They do have Deebo Samuel, Kittle, and Aiyuk seems to be coming along.  The offensive line is solid.  Their defense is a really good unit.  This is to try to get a Jimmy G led team to the promised land.  I think Lance is set up to have a good team built around him in 2023.  I think teams are much quicker to move on from QBs now, and SF is a pretty good landing spot for a vet who wants to move like say Rodgers or something.  

I don't get the Lance hype. He looks awful and he's anything but a sure thing to be a good to above average QB. He's the future and he's a big unknown to me and the 49er organization. They aren't all in on him too. Crazy as it sound Lance getting hurt was a great thing for the 49ers. Jimmy G is a huge upgrade over Lance. 

[DrDawkinstein]

17 minutes ago, Billever76 said:

They must believe Lance is the franchise qb would be my only rational behind this trade

 

Or not, and they tank next year and replace Lance in 2024.

[CorkScrewHill]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I know the price looks like a lot, but is it really more than the Bills 1st and Moss?   I'd have been a happy camper to have CMC for that.

 

Didn't it take a 4th for the Bills to move up 3-4 spots in the first.  San Fran will have a low 2nd and low 3rd.  It seems like all those picks combined might equal the Bills 1st.

 

 

It is also the $ if by getting a CMC we can’t keep a Poyer or a Gabe Davis .. that has to be taken into account

[ArtVandalay]

9 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

They lost to the Bears, Broncos and Falcons and their schedule is much tougher the remainder of the season.  7-9 of their remaining games they will be underdogs or a pick game.  They gave up 2/3 of their draft and it’s probable they miss the payoffs.  

The game they lost to Chicago was a monsoon, horrendous field conditions... you would have figured The Weather Man would know that. 

 

They are 3-3 and first place in their division.  It's possible they miss the playoffs but not probable. 2-0 in division games so far with Ws over Rams and Seahawks.

Edited October 21, 2022 by ArtVandalay

[somnus00]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Lol the 49ers are incredibly dumb. This might be the worst trade I've ever seen. In 2023 they now have two 3rds, a 5th and a 7th. With no franchise QB to build around. Unbelievably awful team building strategy.

Agreed. This is almost Ricky Williams, Herschel Walker level. An oft-injured RB in a league where RB is no longer a premium position.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

You are falling for a sunk cost fallacy. After this season CMC is still an asset with 0 guaranteed money. That makes him a valuable trade commodity if SF wanted to cut bait, or they can not agree on a restructure. Without any guaranteed money there is no hit for SF to trade him if it did not work out, and it allows the trading team to restructure his contract.

 

The draft assets were too rich for Buffalo. I say that as a fan that did want him here as a rental, but not at that cost. SF has $15.9 million in cap space in 2023 with McCaffrey's $12M salary accounted for (OTC is fast!). I've shown how that easily gets dropped to 6-8 million next year freeing up 4-6 million more for SF in 2023 through a basic restructure.

 

Agreed Buffalo didn't have the cap room for even a restructure CMC would agree to, and once the price went to 4 picks it didn't make sense here as a rental.

 

But these comments about SF taking a massive cap hit, or being saddled with a guy are just silly.

They’re going to restructure him. There is no doubt.  And with that restructure, they’re going to pay a RB more than most teams prefer to pay RBs.  
 

meanwhile- 16M in cap room goes a long way when you have to replace - starters in bold and italics rotational players that get snaps.  

 

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

EDGE Samson Ebukam

CB Emmanuel Moseley

RT Mike McGlinchey

LB Azeez Al-Shaair

K Robbie Gould

OL Daniel Brunskill

QB Nate Sudfeld

DT Hassan Ridgeway

EDGE Kemoko Turay

DE Kerry Hyder Jr.

DB Dontae Johnson

TE Tyler Kroft

EDGE Jordan Willis

WR Malik Turner

DL Maurice Hurst

RB Jeff Wilson Jr.

LS Taybor Pepper

TE Ross Dwelley

WR Marcus Johnson

OL Jake Brendel

TE Jordan Matthews

CB Jason Verrett

TE Troy Fumagalli

CB Ka’dar Hollman

DB Tarvarius Moore

P Mitch Wishnowsky

LB Dre Greenlaw

DE Charles Omenihu

OL Justin Skule

S Jimmie Ward

 

I suppose the only thing you’re having a problem with here is the use of the word massive.  Replace it with “a substantial cap hit, especially when considering the position”

 

Spending 7-10M a year on a RB just doesn’t make sense to me.  Especially for a team that just used a handful of picks on RBs the last 2 years.  My best friend is a die hard niner fan and he’s not happy about the trade-  he agrees that it’s desperate.  It makes them better this year for sure-  but going forward, they will miss the picks and lose FA’s because of it.  Improving the Rb position but getting worse in other positions.
 

 
 

[ArtVandalay]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Lol the 49ers are incredibly dumb. This might be the worst trade I've ever seen. In 2023 they now have two 3rds, a 5th and a 7th. With no franchise QB to build around. Unbelievably awful team building strategy.

They received 2 3rd round picks from compensation for someone hiring McDaniel. So they trade a 2 and 3, but received 2 3s. They are factoring comp picks when valuing these selections which many people are not. 

 

They traded their 2023 first rounder to move up and get Trey Lance who they invested in as a franchise QB and they are giving him necessary weapons for when he returns next year. Mobile QB with CMC, Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk at his disposal? They are making his job super easy and supporting their young QB with all necessary options.  They are going to be paying Lance pennies so they can afford to spend more on weapons like an RB that doubles as a WR from the slot. 

 

Letting your developing QB sit for a year (got injured this year now in yr 2) then supporting him with strong weapons and strong run game is pretty much exactly how you want to build around a young QB.

Edited October 21, 2022 by ArtVandalay

[TheFunPolice]

I'd never pay a RB, unless it was Thurman Thomas or Barry Sanders in his prime, and those guys come along once every 25 years. 

 

Remember Todd Gurley, the unstoppable RB who scored TD after TD after TD?

 

Didn't even play in their Super Bowl and vanished after into obscurity. 

 

So many stories just like that. Even "King Henry" the unstoppable is now just a guy who runs for 3 yards a carry. 

 

RBs are important for sure, but once they hit superstar status it's time to trade them, because they'll be done in 2  years. 

Edited October 21, 2022 by TheFunPolice

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

they could trade him again to recoup some draft picks or more likely he renegotiates at a lower cap hit to get some more guaranteed $. So the least likely scenario is he plays at $12/yr for the next 3.  

They could trade him but I don’t see it.   He’ll likely restructure and get paid 7-10M a year imo.  A hefty sum for a RB.  Even heftier when considering all the players they could’ve drafted instead of drafting RB in years past and these upcoming 4 picks- 

 

they wanted to have a chance to win a SB- I don’t think they had much of a chance prior to the trade.  Now they have a much better chance-  but they better win it all this year or next. 

[TheFunPolice]

CMC + 49ers injury luck is not good Karma

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

They traded their 2023 first rounder to move up and get Trey Lance who they invested in as a franchise QB and they are giving him necessary weapons for when he returns next year. Mobile QB with CMC, Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk at his disposal? They are making his job super easy and supporting their young QB with all necessary options.  They are going to be paying Lance pennies so they can afford to spend more on weapons like an RB that doubles as a WR from the slot. 

 

Uh sure, it always works out when a team sells the farm to give their underperforming young QB a chance to succeed. That's why EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins have become a legendary duo.

 

Being serious here, Trey Lance will be out of football for 3 straight years and showed nothing before his injury. Why would they put their faith and their draft capital in his hands?

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

They received 2 3rd round picks from compensation for someone hiring McDaniel. So they trade a 2 and 3, but received 2 3s. They are factoring comp picks when valuing these selections which many people are not. 

 

They traded their 2023 first rounder to move up and get Trey Lance who they invested in as a franchise QB and they are giving him necessary weapons for when he returns next year. Mobile QB with CMC, Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk at his disposal? They are making his job super easy and supporting their young QB with all necessary options.  They are going to be paying Lance pennies so they can afford to spend more on weapons like an RB that doubles as a WR from the slot. 

 

Letting your developing QB sit for a year (got injured this year now in yr 2) then supporting him with strong weapons and strong run game is pretty much exactly how you want to build around a young QB.

Weapons.  Necessary options.  How about protection?  The Bears defense wrecked the niners OL opening day. Made them look like a college team.  That’s right…..the bears defense.  Trey looked terrible playing behind that line.  Dude had no time and no clue.  Their 2nd and 3rd best OL, Brunskill and McGlinchey are impending free agents.    Of all the QBs in the league, Lance is the one guy that can’t afford a bad OL.  The kid is like a deer in headlights and need protection.  

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, Billever76 said:

They must believe Lance is the franchise qb would be my only rational behind this trade

 

OR they're going after Brady next season.

[folz]

Metaphorically burning some sage with this post, to clear the bad juju. Far too many posters expecting or maybe even hoping for a CMC injury now (why? because the Bills didn't get him?).

 

As a CMC fantasy owner, I'm looking forward to a healthy and productive stint for him with the Niners. And, it's good for the league if he stays healthy. The more dynamic players playing, the more fun the games are to watch. Not really worried about SF overall (as far as the Bills are concerned). The only question for me is will the transition time for CMC hurt my fantasy team over the next couple of weeks, while he gets up to speed in the Niners offense. But, I'm sure this trade will be an overall positive for CMC fantasy owners in the long run.

 

As a Bills fan, I was more interested in CMC than OBJ as an addition, but as most have said, not at that price (plus I'm one of those guys that really likes Motor). And I'm kind of in the camp of roll with the guys that got you here. Not really into trying to buy a Super Bowl (as was said of the Rams last year). I understand for some fans it's Super Bowl at any cost. But I like what we got now: the camaraderie, family, mostly home-grown team. I don't think we need anything else right now to put us over the top, we just need to stay healthy.

 

No question CMC will make the Niners better and more dynamic on offense, but I agree with other posters who said that without a top-tier QB, I don't know if it will get them "over-the-top" to the promised land. Kind of makes me think of the Bills trading up in the draft for Sammy Watkins, hoping he'd make the QB better; as opposed to drafting a QB and then surrounding him with talent (as the current Bills regime did). Though CMC is obviously a way better player than Watkins in this scenario. 

[Draconator]

 

[ArtVandalay]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Uh sure, it always works out when a team sells the farm to give their underperforming young QB a chance to succeed. That's why EJ Manuel and Sammy Watkins have become a legendary duo.

 

Being serious here, Trey Lance will be out of football for 3 straight years and showed nothing before his injury. Why would they put their faith and their draft capital in his hands?

He hasn't been out of football for 3 years. His season was canceled in 20 after 1 game and he continued to practice. Last year, he wasn't in games but he practiced wtf the team consistently through the week. He's injured this year after 1 game. 

 

What do you think happens to that team if he doesn't pan out? They suck anyway.  You field the best roster around him as you can.  If he sucks you suck anyway. 

[Greg S]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Lol the 49ers are incredibly dumb. This might be the worst trade I've ever seen. In 2023 they now have two 3rds, a 5th and a 7th. With no franchise QB to build around. Unbelievably awful team building strategy.

 

They did give up a lot but I would say the Broncos trading for Wilson is currently looking worse considering what they gave up

[ArtVandalay]

11 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Weapons.  Necessary options.  How about protection?  The Bears defense wrecked the niners OL opening day. Made them look like a college team.  That’s right…..the bears defense.  Trey looked terrible playing behind that line.  Dude had no time and no clue.  Their 2nd and 3rd best OL, Brunskill and McGlinchey are impending free agents.    Of all the QBs in the league, Lance is the one guy that can’t afford a bad OL.  The kid is like a deer in headlights and need protection.  

The game was in a monsoon. You can't draw any conclusions from that 1 game. Jimmy G is not mobile he's been sacked 7 times in 5 games. This doesn't preclude them from making any OLine improvements.

[TheFunPolice]

in absentia, having a superstar RB is a huge advantage

 

However, that comes with big $, and a long term deal the guy will never live up to because most are a flash in the pan for a few years then fade into obscurity. 

 

Does King Henry still play in the league? Last year he was an MVP candidate and looked like a cheat code. 

[HappyDays]

Just now, ArtVandalay said:

was canceled in 20 after 1 game and he continued to practice. Last year, he wasn't in games but he practiced wtf the team consistently through the week. He's injured this year after 1 game. 

 

I'm not talking about practice. I'm talking about live game reps. 3 years is a really long time to go without any consistent live game reps. It's hard to see a path for him becoming a successful QB. Not that I'm advocating they should move on from him, but they need to be realistic about his chances and make decisions accordingly.

 

2 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

What do you think happens to that team if he doesn't pan out? They suck anyway.

 

If he doesn't pan out they need draft picks and young players at premium positions. Not a RB with an injury history.

 

They didn't make this trade because of Trey Lance anyways. They made it because they think they can win a Super Bowl this year. Personally I think they are overrating their own chances. The NFC is weak but they still need to actually beat whatever AFC team makes it there if they get that far.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

The game was in a monsoon. You can't draw any conclusions from that 1 game. Jimmy G is not mobile he's been sacked 7 times in 5 games. This doesn't preclude them from making any OLine improvements.

That game was in a monsoon—-and the OL got destroyed.  I didn’t know that OLmen were at a disadvantage when playing in a monsoon-  

 

Their OL has been 🤮 this year and their 2nd and 3rd best OLmen are free agents next year.  
 

Low sacks given up doesn’t prove an OL is good.   Nor does it extrapolate how good their OL will be next year if they lose two of their best starters.  I’ve watched 5 

of their games this year (and most of them the last 12 years).  Their OL hasn’t been good.  You can talk about jimmys sacks all you want.  I know what I see

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not talking about practice. I'm talking about live game reps. 3 years is a really long time to go without any consistent live game reps. It's hard to see a path for him becoming a successful QB. Not that I'm advocating they should move on from him, but they need to be realistic about his chances and make decisions accordingly.

 

 

If he doesn't pan out they need draft picks and young players at premium positions. Not a RB with an injury history.

 

They didn't make this trade because of Trey Lance anyways. They made it because they think they can win a Super Bowl this year. Personally I think they are overrating their own chances. The NFC is weak but they still need to actually beat whatever AFC team makes it there if they get that far.

 

 

You said the key part..........the NFC is weak.

 

Last season the Niners came back from the dead at mid-season to be in an NFC championship game against a team they had beaten 6 times in a row.

 

You had to like those odds.

 

They were a dropped easy interception late in that game from playing an inferior Bengals team that their organization had already beaten in two prior Super Bowls.    

 

So there's that.

 

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

He hasn't been out of football for 3 years. His season was canceled in 20 after 1 game and he continued to practice. Last year, he wasn't in games but he practiced wtf the team consistently through the week. He's injured this year after 1 game. 

 

What do you think happens to that team if he doesn't pan out? They suck anyway.  You field the best roster around him as you can.  If he sucks you suck anyway. 

You’re comparing Lance practicing with the team to playing football.  They aren’t even close to the same thing.  And last year, he was practicing as a backup QB-  very few reps.  The dude has probably played less football than any starting qb in league history.  But he’s practiced…..

[FireChans]

44 minutes ago, NewEra said:

They’re going to restructure him. There is no doubt.  And with that restructure, they’re going to pay a RB more than most teams prefer to pay RBs.  
 

meanwhile- 16M in cap room goes a long way when you have to replace - starters in bold and italics rotational players that get snaps.  

 

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

EDGE Samson Ebukam

CB Emmanuel Moseley

RT Mike McGlinchey

LB Azeez Al-Shaair

K Robbie Gould

OL Daniel Brunskill

QB Nate Sudfeld

DT Hassan Ridgeway

EDGE Kemoko Turay

DE Kerry Hyder Jr.

DB Dontae Johnson

TE Tyler Kroft

EDGE Jordan Willis

WR Malik Turner

DL Maurice Hurst

RB Jeff Wilson Jr.

LS Taybor Pepper

TE Ross Dwelley

WR Marcus Johnson

OL Jake Brendel

TE Jordan Matthews

CB Jason Verrett

TE Troy Fumagalli

CB Ka’dar Hollman

DB Tarvarius Moore

P Mitch Wishnowsky

LB Dre Greenlaw

DE Charles Omenihu

OL Justin Skule

S Jimmie Ward

 

I suppose the only thing you’re having a problem with here is the use of the word massive.  Replace it with “a substantial cap hit, especially when considering the position”

 

Spending 7-10M a year on a RB just doesn’t make sense to me.  Especially for a team that just used a handful of picks on RBs the last 2 years.  My best friend is a die hard niner fan and he’s not happy about the trade-  he agrees that it’s desperate.  It makes them better this year for sure-  but going forward, they will miss the picks and lose FA’s because of it.  Improving the Rb position but getting worse in other positions.
 

 
 

Tell him on the plus side, it's less picks for Shanny to spend on runningbacks who suck.

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You said the key part..........the NFC is weak.

 

Last season the Niners came back from the dead at mid-season to be in an NFC championship game against a team they had beaten 6 times in a row.

 

You had to like those odds.

 

They were a dropped easy interception late in that game from playing an inferior Bengals team that their organization had already beaten in two prior Super Bowls.    

 

So there's that.

 

 

According to DVOA they have an 8.2% chance of reaching the Super Bowl, and a 3.4% chance of winning it. That's slightly better than their 3.1% chance of ending up with a top 5 pick in the draft (which would be gifted to the Miami Dolphins).

 

Not sure I like "those odds." McCaffrey might change each of those percentages by 0.2?

[NewEra]

Just now, FireChans said:

Tell him on the plus side, it's less picks for Shanny to spend on runningbacks who suck.

You ain’t lying.  And the lowest pick of the 3 turned out to be the best by far 

[daz28]

Would have been a pure rental no question, and that was too much to pay for that, especially considering our situation moving forward.  We're right at the projected cap for next year with only 37 players, with some important guys needing contracts still.  We're going to have to kick the can down the road with restructures just to field a team next year, because there's really no cuts that can be made that save any cap space.  I just hope it doesn't get super ugly in the future.  Let's hope Beane has some super wizard plan. 

Edited October 21, 2022 by daz28

[Warcodered]

41 minutes ago, Draconator said:

 

Well he's got like a day of practice before they Chiefs game.

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

According to DVOA they have an 8.2% chance of reaching the Super Bowl, and a 3.4% chance of winning it. That's slightly better than their 3.1% chance of ending up with a top 5 pick in the draft (which would be gifted to the Miami Dolphins).

 

Not sure I like "those odds." McCaffrey might change each of those percentages by 0.2?

Or you can look at Vegas where they have the 5th best odds to make the Super Bowl and 3rd best if you take the AFC teams out (us and the chiefs). Only eagles and Bucs (for some reason) have better odds. Not sure what DVOA is factoring in but it’s certainly not looking at the dumpster fire that is the NFC. I’ll rattle it off again, they’re getting healthy again (Bosa and Trent Williams back) plus they’re adding CMC to a team with the best D in the league and a great coach. They’ll play one tough game in the playoffs against the eagles and you’re kidding yourself if you don’t trust them to beat Hurts. Or maybe you didn’t see Hurts playoff performance last year. They’re my solid lock to play for the SB so I watch them closely since I’m hoping we make it too
 

As for the compensation, did they really give up that much? They got extra comp picks from their coaches getting hired away so they’re just using those. The point value of everything they gave up only amounts to a late 1st anyways. It’s an all in move for a team with a clear path to the SB in a crappy conference. It was a great move. Shanahan has so many weapons and so many YAC guys to use. 
 

 

[HappyDays]

 

[BillsFanForever19]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

That's a really good offer from Beane's standpoint. McCaffrey was never going to be on this team beyond this season. Even if he agreed to rip up his deal, there's no way CMC would have agreed to a new contract that would fall in line with what we'd have been willing to pay a RB especially given his wear and tear, reliability, and the amount of key players coming up who would take priority while other contract numbers go up.

 

Surprised to see he'd go as high as a 2nd for a one year rental. Shows he really tried.

[YoloinOhio]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sounds appropriate

[Solomon Grundy]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay, we missed out on CMC. Now go gauge the chances of getting this guy 

 

 

[Bills2022]

Great signing by the Niners. They are a very scary team if they are healthy. If not for the huge edge we have at QB, a healthy Niners probably would pose the biggest threat to the Bills in the entire NFC.  Jimmy G is very capable of winning a Super Bowl against another decent QB, but it is impossible to see a slightly above average QB beating the Bills. 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Okay, we missed out on CMC. Now go gauge the chances of getting this guy 

 

 

He’s looking like a special back this season. Dunno if I’d want to sign him long term though.  He may want 10M-ish if he keeps up his current play.  I don’t think paying a RB that kinda money would jive with Beanes plan—-  but if he offered a 2nd for Mccaffery, maybe it is.  
 

I’d trade a 4th for him as a one year rental if we couldn’t get a team friendly deal long term.  He’s a clear upgrade over motor based on how he’s running this season.  
 

I wouldn’t part with much more than that though. We can win a SB with Motor 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Nice … now please draft well Carolina. Half those picks are future Bills 😂

[daz28]

52 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

That's a really good offer from Beane's standpoint. McCaffrey was never going to be on this team beyond this season. Even if he agreed to rip up his deal, there's no way CMC would have agreed to a new contract that would fall in line with what we'd have been willing to pay a RB especially given his wear and tear, reliability, and the amount of key players coming up who would take priority while other contract numbers go up.

 

Surprised to see he'd go as high as a 2nd for a one year rental. Shows he really tried.

Any idea what the cap implications would be for us if we traded him in the off-season?  If there were none, then I'm sure we could recoup something draft wise.  That's the only possibility that I could have seen this working out.