Hot take: Shakir should be the starting slot receiver going forward

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.   It was not a ball I wanted him trying to catch.  

The wind has been unusually difficult there for the past two years.  Even on quieter days it’s tough for returners there.  Had a couple of muffs in the blue and white scrimmages in the past two years.  Titans has guys dropping all sorts of stuff in warmups before MNF this year.  And that Shakir situation has the ball moving all over the place. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

So you’re concluding this from basically 55 snaps running with the 1s in 2 games, in which he saw 7 targets?  And another 24 snaps from garbage time?

 

I think Shakir shows every promise of being a solid WR in the NFL, and maybe a very good one.  But all that stuff about “has found open space more consistently” blah blah based on a very small sample size, is IMO “projecting” your own biases and beliefs onto what you see.

 

It’s like the people who are alleging Bernard is so much better than Dodson based on like 41 snaps in “clean up time”.  He may become that, but you really can’t tell that he is right now.

Look, everyone has an opinion.  I stated mine.  

 

All you've said here is that my opinion is wrong because I don't have enough data.   So, when my opinion after one preseason game that Josh Allen was the franchise quarterback was wrong because I only saw 20 snaps?   Your opinion is that EVERY veteran is better than EVERY rookie simply because he's a veteran?   That makes no sense.  

 

I've watched McKenzie drop balls long enough to know that he is not a first-rate receiver.   He was on the bench behind Beasley for a reason.  The Bills signed Crowder for a reason.   They drafted Shakir for a reason.  I've got more data than I need to think Shakir should be the slot guy.  

 

You can have your opinion.   I might be wrong.  But you can't prove that you're right, so I don't see why you need to argue as though I'm an idiot.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Never really heard is Crowder on season ending IR or is he eligible to come back in 4 weeks?  With the rules today, maybe no such thing as season ending IR??

 

Overall think McKenzie will likely start when healthy until Shakir shows much more.  Even then look at how the Bills handled Brown and Sanders last two years. As long as they were healthy, they started, but the backups tended to play as much if not more.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Logic said:

I know, I know -- it's early, and you'll say I'm jumping the gun.

I don't care. I've seen enough: Khalil Shakir should be the starting slot receiver going forward, even when McKenzie and Crowder return to full health.

At the very least, he should be splitting reps with McKenzie and seeing more playing time than Jamison Crowder.

He runs great routes. He constantly seems to get open. He has relatively sure hands (one bad concentration drop yesterday not withstanding). He offers run-after-catch ability that this offense often lacks. He has the frame and build to withstand the tough over-the-middle work. 

Aside from all of that, he just passes the eyeball test in a way that the Bills' other two slot options do not. Frankly, he looks like a star in the making.

I love McKenzie as a player and am glad he's on the roster, but has he looked like a dynamic full time slot option to anyone over the first four games? He hasn't looked that way to me. I like Crowder, too. He's a solid, dependable veteran depth option. Again, though: he doesn't seem to pop off the screen the way Shakir was.

I have figured all along that Shakir would be brought along slowly, that he'd be more of a contender for starting duties in 2023 or 2024. Given McDermott's M.O., that still may happen. I don't think it should, though. I've seen enough. He's the best option to start in the slot. The coaches always preach getting the best players on the field, regardless of tenure or pedigree. If they're true to their word, Shakir should start seeing more opportunities. I hope he does.

 

 

I really do love Shakir.

 

But McKenzie and Crowder are plenty good also. 

 

I want to see him more consistently, but I don't have any particular urge to see him ahead of the other two, especially early in the year.

 

And for people criticizing McKenzie's hands, I just don't see it. The guy had 30 catches on 34 targets in 2020, 20 catches on 26 targets in 2021 and has 15 catches on 21 targets this year, including the one Josh bounced to him at the goal line. Are some of those easy one foot throws on jet sweeps? Yeah. But not all and I don't think most. He doesn't miss a lot.

 

Shakir has 5 catches on 9 targets. Not saying that's bad. He has good hands, but so does McKenzie.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

I really do love Shakir. 

 

But McKenzie and Crowder are plenty good also. 

 

I want to see him more consistently, but I don't have any particular urge to see him ahead of the other two, especially early in the year.

 

Did the Bills put Crowder on IR-return?  If not, his season and probably time with the Bills is over. 

[BillsShredder83]

11 hours ago, yall said:

I don't even know that this is such a hot take.

 

Kid is good. Play him.

This. What do we stand to lose? Missing out on 2 catches 18 yards?

Stand to gain? A lot

 

Risk/reward so heavily favors this kid. I've seen nothing out of the slot until Sunday

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Did the Bills put Crowder on IR-return?  If not, his season and probably time with the Bills is over. 

 

 

Yeah, I believe they did.

 

https://nfltraderumors.co/bills-make-six-moves-including-placing-wr-jamison-crowder-on-ir/

[DuckyBoys]

looks promising and with Crowder out for a while he will get more opportunities  Like to see Cook continue to get some touches as well

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

This. What do we stand to lose? Missing out on 2 catches 18 yards?

Stand to gain? A lot

 

Risk/reward so heavily favors this kid. I've seen nothing out of the slot until Sunday

 

 

Nothing out of the slot?

 

McKenzie and Crowder have totalled 213 yards, 3 TDs and 13 1st downs. On 34 targets. Those are solid numbers for slot.

 

[BidsJr]

4 hours ago, finn said:

That's interesting. Are you thinking of his Reed-like glide, upright posture, soft hands, and deceptive speed?

 

All of it, including the penchant of YAC.

 

When I watch him it feels like if. he was wearing 83, I'm not sure I could tell the difference.

[BillsShredder83]

Anybody passing this up to see another season of McKittrick?

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Anybody passing this up to see another season of McKittrick?

 

 

Likely they are both back next year 

[NickelCity]

55 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Anybody passing this up to see another season of McKittrick?

 

 

 

Just wild that Josh throws that ball. 

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, NickelCity said:

 

Just wild that Josh throws that ball. 

 

It is arm arrogance... and perhaps not the right decision...

 

Diggs is way more open...

 

But.. he got the result so its hard to argue..

[Buffalo Ballin]

Josh Allen has plenty of balls to pass around.

[GunnerBill]

The one thing that should be recognised here is that all those people who pushed back so hard on "he really isn't an outside receiver in the NFL he is a slot who can play the odd snap out there" should come and take their L now. 

 

Shakir is going to be a very fine slot receiver in this league. That is what he is.

[Warcodered]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The one thing that should be recognised here is that all those people who pushed back so hard on "he really isn't an outside receiver in the NFL he is a slot who can play the odd snap out there" should come and take their L now. 

 

Shakir is going to be a very fine slot receiver in this league. That is what he is.

I mean slot WR is where there is an opening on the roster.

[Roundybout]

9 hours ago, NickelCity said:

 

Just wild that Josh throws that ball. 

 

That's called "I trust my receiver with my heart and soul"

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I mean slot WR is where there is an opening on the roster.

 

And when there was an opening for an outside receiver the Bills played Jake Kumerow. 

[Rocky Landing]

14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Look, everyone has an opinion.  I stated mine.  

 

All you've said here is that my opinion is wrong because I don't have enough data.   So, when my opinion after one preseason game that Josh Allen was the franchise quarterback was wrong because I only saw 20 snaps?   Your opinion is that EVERY veteran is better than EVERY rookie simply because he's a veteran?   That makes no sense.  

 

I've watched McKenzie drop balls long enough to know that he is not a first-rate receiver.   He was on the bench behind Beasley for a reason.  The Bills signed Crowder for a reason.   They drafted Shakir for a reason.  I've got more data than I need to think Shakir should be the slot guy.  

 

You can have your opinion.   I might be wrong.  But you can't prove that you're right, so I don't see why you need to argue as though I'm an idiot.  

Shaw, I think the point is that your (and several others) opinions are highly speculative. There really isn't enough of a sample size to simply state that Shakir is demonstratively better than McKenzie. And using recent stats as "proof" really looks like confirmation bias when there are other games in which McKenzie has better numbers. 

[Airseven]

I agree it’s Shakir’s time. McKenzie needs to settle back into a support role and enabled to excel in specifically designed packages.

[TBBills]

Still trying to figure out why this is called a "Hot take" when people in the offseason said this was going to happen.

Edited October 11, 2022 by TBBills

[Warcodered]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And when there was an opening for an outside receiver the Bills played Jake Kumerow. 

Pretty sure Jake Kumerow was playing before that.

[foreboding]

Not really a hot take.

 

I thought that his skillset would lead us here fairly quickly. He has that innate slot-reciever ability: you know it when you see it, sits down at the right spot, cuts tight, knows how to leak out into an open space, and grabs the ball. He also has some wheels and a little size. 

 

Reminds me a bit of Robert Woods.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Pretty sure Jake Kumerow was playing before that.

 

As a backup, sure. And when they needed someone to go in he went in. Shakir is a slot. That isn't a knock on him, it is just what he is.

[Doc]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The one thing that should be recognised here is that all those people who pushed back so hard on "he really isn't an outside receiver in the NFL he is a slot who can play the odd snap out there" should come and take their L now. 

 

Shakir is going to be a very fine slot receiver in this league. That is what he is.

Take the L?  Has it been definitively proven that he’ll never be able to play outside?  

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

Take the L?  Has it been definitively proven that he’ll never be able to play outside?  

 

I am not sure the he is an outside player guys will ever see any evidence as enough. Everything the Bills have done and his performances tell the story. Can he take snaps outside? Sure. The same way Beas could. Do you want him doing that? Not really. Way more effective in the slot.

[Warcodered]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure the he is an outside player guys will ever see any evidence as enough. Everything the Bills have done and his performances tell the story. Can he take snaps outside? Sure. The same way Beas could. Do you want him doing that? Not really. Way more effective in the slot.

The story is what when the two slot WRs ahead of him were out he came in and played well? Sure, not sure how this says anything about him playing outside.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

The story is what when the two slot WRs ahead of him were out he came in and played well? Sure, not sure how this says anything about him playing outside.

 

The story is a lot of fans see things as they want them to be not as they are. 

 

What Shakir is is a very exciting slot receiver prospect who could end up a high end player at that position. 

[Royale with Cheese]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The story is a lot of fans see things as they want them to be not as they are. 

 

What Shakir is is a very exciting slot receiver prospect who could end up a high end player at that position. 

 

I had this shower thought the other day.  What if Gabe Davis becomes too expensive to re-sign and we sign OBJ in a few weeks?

Next year:

 

Diggs #1

OBJ #2

Shakir/McKenzie slot

 

Draft a boundary WR in the 1st or 2nd.  

 

**Okay it's now time to stop thinking about me in the shower**

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As a backup, sure. And when they needed someone to go in he went in. Shakir is a slot. That isn't a knock on him, it is just what he is.

What makes him just a slot?  He's listed as roughly the same size as Diggs and ran a faster 40.  Depth chart on ESPN (for what it's worth) has him listed behind Davis.  He has the speed, size, and route running skills to play outside just as well as inside.

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

Shaw, I think the point is that your (and several others) opinions are highly speculative. There really isn't enough of a sample size to simply state that Shakir is demonstratively better than McKenzie. And using recent stats as "proof" really looks like confirmation bias when there are other games in which McKenzie has better numbers. 

McK hasn't done chit this year. If he was producing, sure you make the rookie earn his snaps. 

 

Isiah hasn't done anything with a rile he finally was given. He misses time, and a rookie with a lot of promise comes in, makes a few nice plays I've never seen mck make. 

Low risk/high potential reward

[ColoradoBills]

On 10/10/2022 at 8:58 AM, Bob in STL said:

 

Shakir looks versatile and can rotate in and sub for any of the three (McKenzie, Davis, Diggs).  Whether Shakir "starts" is not important.  He will play and he will get targets. I like the possibility that we can move him around.  He will make plays.  

 

Not sure we are going to see much of Crowder with his injury.  Kumerow will go back to ST mostly.  

 

 

 

I like your take on him.  It's not a bad situation for the next few games to let him be "primary sub" along with splitting some time

as McKenzie.  It would be a good situation to get experience all along the WR roles.

 

If he continues to develop the way he has, he will lock up the slot position soon enough, but the need right now is outside.

[DCbillsfan]

25 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I had this shower thought the other day.  What if Gabe Davis becomes too expensive to re-sign and we sign OBJ in a few weeks?

Next year:

 

Diggs #1

OBJ #2

Shakir/McKenzie slot

 

Draft a boundary WR in the 1st or 2nd.  

 

**Okay it's now time to stop thinking about me in the shower**

Davis is under contract next season but an extension could prove costly.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, DCbillsfan said:

Davis is under contract next season but an extension could prove costly.

 

Ooooh...I thought it was up after this year.

[Rocky Landing]

15 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

McK hasn't done chit this year. If he was producing, sure you make the rookie earn his snaps. 

 

Isiah hasn't done anything with a rile he finally was given. He misses time, and a rookie with a lot of promise comes in, makes a few nice plays I've never seen mck make. 

Low risk/high potential reward

He has 15 receptions in four games for three TDs, and a catch rate of 71.4%

Shakir has 5 receptions in three games for one TD, and a catch rate of 55.6%.

 

What are you talking about?

[Rocky Landing]

16 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

Davis is under contract next season but an extension could prove costly.

Are we assuming that OBJ will be cheaper than Davis???

[PrimeTime101]

1 minute ago, Rocky Landing said:

He has 15 receptions in four games for three TDs, and a catch rate of 71.4%

Shakir has 5 receptions in three games for one TD, and a catch rate of 55.6%.

 

What are you talking about?

What are you talking about? your missing the point.

 

McKenzie has 21 targets, Shakir has 9 targets

With this many targets Shakir has about as many YAC 

so lets do some basic roundup math.

 

with same amount of targets Shakir would have around 60 more YAC, a younger player with a higher ceiling then Mckenzie. not to mention most of Shakir's target was last Sunday

 

[GunnerBill]

43 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

What makes him just a slot?  He's listed as roughly the same size as Diggs and ran a faster 40.  Depth chart on ESPN (for what it's worth) has him listed behind Davis.  He has the speed, size, and route running skills to play outside just as well as inside.

 

He doesn't have the same functional strength as Diggs and he does his best running in tight spaces. He can get jammed at the line (we have already seen that happen on a couple of snaps in the Tenneseee game) and I don't see him as a guy who can run past guys. He is much more a short distance separator. 

[Rocky Landing]

12 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

What are you talking about? your missing the point.

 

McKenzie has 21 targets, Shakir has 9 targets

With this many targets Shakir has about as many YAC 

so lets do some basic roundup math.

 

with same amount of targets Shakir would have around 60 more YAC, a younger player with a higher ceiling then Mckenzie. not to mention most of Shakir's target was last Sunday

 

That is my point. Y'all making the case that Shakir > McK based on one game against a team we practically shut out. To claim that "McK hasn't done chit this year" is just not true, including in comparison to Shakir. And to say that Shakir "makes a few nice plays I've never seen mck make," is anecdotal, at best. McKenzie has had some great games in a Bills uniform, against much better opponents.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Rocky Landing