Jim Kubiak Analysis in BN

[ColoradoBills]

11 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

More proof that the team (and us fans) just need to flush this game and forget about it.  

 

I was disappointed after the loss but not upset at all.  My concern going forward is the residual aftereffects of the game.

The guys need to get as healthy as possible for Sunday.

 

Slipping into Baltimore and coming out with a win (of any kind) would be a huge victory for the team!

They get a bit of relief the following week with the Steelers at home.

[Logic]

***Bills are down to third stringers across the o-line, d-line, and in the secondary, a Doordash driver is covering Jaylen Waddle, our starting QB can barely take an in-breath, and players are literally dropping to the field play after play, exhausted, heat-sick, and unable or barely able to continue in a game that one Dolphins player called "a war zone"***

Multiple TSWers: "COACHES are the reason we lost!!!" 

[UKBillFan]

17 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

More proof that the team (and us fans) just need to flush this game and forget about it.  

 

Until the week of December 11th. Then remember it and use it as fuel.

[appoo]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I was disappointed after the loss but not upset at all.  My concern going forward is the residual aftereffects of the game.

The guys need to get as healthy as possible for Sunday.

 

Slipping into Baltimore and coming out with a win (of any kind) would be a huge victory for the team!

They get a bit of relief the following week with the Steelers at home.

 

I've already put the 1 seed out of my mind. 

 

Right now, my goal for this team is just to get it peaking , and healthy, for the stretch run and then into the playoffs.  

 

Anywhere in the top 4 seeds will do for me

[AuntieEm]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

I don’t agree with this. How many TD’s (in the endzone) do you see a football move happen? How many jukes, etc happen after catching in the endzone?

 

People will say “it’s the time that matters”. Except it’s often not. Watch this clip below. Lamb catches the ball and refs signal TD nearly immediately. THEY ARENT EVEN LOOKING AT HIM ON THE GROUND to see if he dropped it.

 

Just 2 feet were in, TD.

 

 

Yea just like breaking the plane at the goal line u catch the pass 2 feet in  its a td.

[TheBrownBear]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I was disappointed after the loss but not upset at all.  My concern going forward is the residual aftereffects of the game.

The guys need to get as healthy as possible for Sunday.

 

Slipping into Baltimore and coming out with a win (of any kind) would be a huge victory for the team!

They get a bit of relief the following week with the Steelers at home.

Yeah, that's my worry as well.  Putting your body through that level of physical and mental torture takes a real toll and requires serious recovery.  I'm more than a little worried about how we are going to come out against the Ravens on Sunday.  And that's not even considering all of the actual physical injuries we are suffering from.

Edited September 27, 2022 by TheBrownBear

[Malazan]

4 hours ago, H2o said:

Possession, two feet, and what seemed to be a football move before it was knocked out is what I saw. Even if we didn't get the call reversed by the refs, who were ABSOLUTELY suspect this game, I wouldn't have been mad at the challenge in any way. 

 

wasting a challenge because of your emotions wouldn't have been a great idea. There was no way the call on the field would be overruled on that. 

[ColoradoBills]

12 minutes ago, appoo said:

 

I've already put the 1 seed out of my mind. 

 

Right now, my goal for this team is just to get it peaking , and healthy, for the stretch run and then into the playoffs.  

 

Anywhere in the top 4 seeds will do for me

 

While I have not.  I still think the Bills have the inside shot at the #1.  The injuries will need to stop now but all the top AFC teams

will lose multiple games during the season.

[appoo]

1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

While I have not.  I still think the Bills have the inside shot at the #1.  The injuries will need to stop now but all the top AFC teams

will lose multiple games during the season.

Normally I'm with you because I think the bye week is huge. 

 

But all these injuries have me a bit spooked, to be chasing it. Would rather the team be conservative with player health. When you have a team this good, this talented, then just getting them into the playoffs healthy is better than getting the #1 seed with bumped and bruised roster IMO - but to be sure, I don't know if those two things are mutually exclusive. 

 

Really, just never seen an injury situation like this before with the Bills. Reminds me of the Niner a few years ago after their Super Bowl run, when their defense was grim reapered

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

While I have not.  I still think the Bills have the inside shot at the #1.  The injuries will need to stop now but all the top AFC teams

will lose multiple games during the season.

Also, the schedule is way more favorable after the bye.  We get to 4-2 and we have a great chance at bye.  Even a shot at 3-3.

[Mikie's Bills]

1 hour ago, appoo said:

 

He never completed the catch. That wouldn't have been ruled a fumble if it happened in midfield

At mid-field a football move needs to be made. I don' t think that is the case in the endzone, because a "football move" is related to advancing the ball, which obviously doesn't apply in the endzone.

 

Would have been worth the challenge I think, as others have pointed out there are examples of plays where two feet and possession have been enough to rule a TD.

[appoo]

1 minute ago, Mikie's Bills said:

At mid-field a football move needs to be made. I don' t think that is the case in the endzone, because a "football move" is related to advancing the ball, which obviously doesn't apply in the endzone.

 

Would have been worth the challenge I think, as others have pointed out there are examples of plays where two feet and possession have been enough to rule a TD.

More about process of the catch I think. 

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, appoo said:

Normally I'm with you because I think the bye week is huge. 

 

But all these injuries have me a bit spooked, to be chasing it. Would rather the team be conservative with player health. When you have a team this good, this talented, then just getting them into the playoffs healthy is better than getting the #1 seed with bumped and bruised roster IMO - but to be sure, I don't know if those two things are mutually exclusive. 

 

Really, just never seen an injury situation like this before with the Bills. Reminds me of the Niner a few years ago after their Super Bowl run, when their defense was grim reapered

 

It seems pretty clear to me that the Ravens game this Sunday along with the KC and 2nd Miami game will tell the story.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, uninja said:

The last couple of drives Allen was pressing. He has a tendency to get like that when we're down and the clock is ticking. You were starting to see the more erratic, sugar-high, Josh. He had a handful of risky throws that by all accounts should have been intercepted.

 

I'm going to chalk it up to mental and physical exhaustion and having to play with a completely different cast of players that he's normally used to playing with.

The pressing honestly made sense to me(it normally doesn’t though)…it was only a matter of time before a sack or holding call derailed the drive…he was working miracles making passrushers miss.  Had to take risks down the stretch there he had probably the worst offensive line ever assembled blocking for him late in this one. 

[Mikie's Bills]

34 minutes ago, appoo said:

More about process of the catch I think. 

I mean he catches it with two hands and tucks it away, two feet in bounds. And only after that it is knocked away. Not sure how much more he could do short of making a football move that doesn't need to be made. Starting to be more and more convinced it's a TD.

 

[uninja]

23 minutes ago, Mikie's Bills said:

I mean he catches it with two hands and tucks it away, two feet in bounds. And only after that it is knocked away. Not sure how much more he could do short of making a football move that doesn't need to be made. Starting to be more and more convinced it's a TD.

 

It’s the ball getting smacked out as he’s stepping out of bounds. “Did not complete the process of the catch” is what the zebras would say, and they’d be right. 
 

If I was a ref I would have called it the same way. As much as I wanted it, calling that a TD would have been a terrible call.

[Mikie's Bills]

4 minutes ago, uninja said:

It’s the ball getting smacked out as he’s stepping out of bounds. “Did not complete the process of the catch” is what the zebras would say, and they’d be right. 
 

If I was a ref I would have called it the same way. As much as I wanted it, calling that a TD would have been a terrible call.

That's only if you're going to the ground you have to maintain control. There is not a predetermined amount of time you must control the ball on a TD catch because then it becomes too subjective- (ie. 0.5 sec? 1 sec? the amount of time it takes to hand the ball to the ref, etc. doesn't matter). And plus, even though it doesn't require a football move, the act of Gabe tucking it away does constitute making a football move according to the rulebook.

 

Again, unless there is a change in the rule since then, I don't see how the first play in this vid is a TD and Gabe's is not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvppdpTQC4U&t=16s&ab_channel=AndyProvin

 

[MPT]

4 hours ago, AuntieEm said:

Yea just like breaking the plane at the goal line u catch the pass 2 feet in  its a td.

 

That's not true at all. Once the ball breaks the plane from the field of play, it's instantly a TD as long as the player has control of the ball. A catch in the endzone must satisfy certain requirements after the catch, one of which is a move common to the game or control of the ball long enough to make one. 

 

If Ceedee had dropped the ball going out of bounds it would have been incomplete as well. But he didn't drop it. Gabe did. And I'm sure he won't make that mistake again.

[Scott7975]

8 hours ago, RiotAct said:

the potential game-winning field goal would have been from 50ish yards, correct?   Far from a gimme.

 

Are you talking about from where McKenzie could have gone out of bounds?  That would have been like 64 or 65 yards.  I think even from where McK went down it was like 62.

[MPT]

2 hours ago, Mikie's Bills said:

That's only if you're going to the ground you have to maintain control. There is not a predetermined amount of time you must control the ball on a TD catch because then it becomes too subjective- (ie. 0.5 sec? 1 sec? the amount of time it takes to hand the ball to the ref, etc. doesn't matter). And plus, even though it doesn't require a football move, the act of Gabe tucking it away does constitute making a football move according to the rulebook.

 

Again, unless there is a change in the rule since then, I don't see how the first play in this vid is a TD and Gabe's is not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvppdpTQC4U&t=16s&ab_channel=AndyProvin

 

 

You are mistaken on both accounts. There is an amount of time you have to control the ball and there is a football move requirement.

 

"To gain possession of a loose ball that has been caught, intercepted, or recovered, a player (a) must have complete control of the ball with his hands or arms and (b) have both feet or any other part of his body, other than his hands, completely on the ground inbounds, and, after (a) and (b) have been fulfilled, perform any act common to the game (e.g., tuck the ball away, extend it forward, take an additional step, turn upfield, or avoid or ward off an opponent). It is not necessary that he commit such an act, provided that he maintains control of the ball long enough to do so. This rule applies in the field of play, at the sideline, and in the end zone."

 

Gabe was in the process of making a "football move" when the ball was knocked out. So he clearly did not maintain control of the ball long enough to do so.

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, appoo said:

The more I think about that game, the more I think it's a testament to the roster build, McDermott and staff's ball knowledge, and Josh Allen that this game wasn't a 3 score blowout. 

 

You know how in political forecasting we have something called the fundamentals? Which is to say the inherent advantage for one party over the other based on economy, who's in powers, demographics, etc - before you ever get into candidate quality. 

 

Well in this game, fundamentals advantages the Dolphins by 3 TDs

 

He never completed the catch. That wouldn't have been ruled a fumble if it happened in midfield

 

If it wasnt a completed catch then it can not be ruled a fumble.  It would be ruled an incompletion in that case.  I still think it was a catch but it doesnt matter.  It was so close there is no way to know regardless of what people feel.  We never know what refs are going to do.  They ruled that Int on a 50/50 ball last year when an offensive player always gets the ball on a 50/50.  Upheld on review.  I think challenging it is the right call.  If nothing else the offense gets extra rest and it was obviously needed.  They could have made up the timeout by not calling another timeout later in the game like on the punt.

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Mikie's Bills said:

I mean he catches it with two hands and tucks it away, two feet in bounds. And only after that it is knocked away. Not sure how much more he could do short of making a football move that doesn't need to be made. Starting to be more and more convinced it's a TD.

 

 

He also "turns upfield" which is also considered an act common to the game. Its dependent on when the ball actually starts to come out.  Im willing to bet they would have called that a fumble if it was on the field and not the endzone.  If thats the case then it is also a TD.

Edited September 27, 2022 by Scott7975

[BananaB]

5 hours ago, uninja said:

It’s the ball getting smacked out as he’s stepping out of bounds. “Did not complete the process of the catch” is what the zebras would say, and they’d be right. 
 

If I was a ref I would have called it the same way. As much as I wanted it, calling that a TD would have been a terrible call.

The way I see it is if that was in the field and not in the endzone would it be possible to be ruled as a fumble. To be honest, I think it could have. 

[Nextmanup]

11 hours ago, uninja said:

The last couple of drives Allen was pressing. He has a tendency to get like that when we're down and the clock is ticking. You were starting to see the more erratic, sugar-high, Josh. He had a handful of risky throws that by all accounts should have been intercepted.

 

I'm going to chalk it up to mental and physical exhaustion and having to play with a completely different cast of players that he's normally used to playing with.

I think that's just who Josh is.  Though he may still outgrow it.

I thought all that stuff was over, that he had already matured beyond it, but as soon as conditions were right for panic Josh to show up, he showed up.   We're probably just going to have to live with, and be content knowing that his entire package of pros and cons is still plenty good enough to win a SB.

 

 

[Casey D]

2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I think that's just who Josh is.  Though he may still outgrow it.

I thought all that stuff was over, that he had already matured beyond it, but as soon as conditions were right for panic Josh to show up, he showed up.   We're probably just going to have to live with, and be content knowing that his entire package of pros and cons is still plenty good enough to win a SB.

 

 

There was no panic-- just sheer exhaustion.

[BananaB]

24 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I think that's just who Josh is.  Though he may still outgrow it.

I thought all that stuff was over, that he had already matured beyond it, but as soon as conditions were right for panic Josh to show up, he showed up.   We're probably just going to have to live with, and be content knowing that his entire package of pros and cons is still plenty good enough to win a SB.

 

 

I think it’s hard to judge him on Sunday  about erratic play because nothing about the situation was normal. I’m more impressed he did what he did despite the circumstances. 

[ILBillsfan]

14 hours ago, Casey D said:

Behind a paywall, but it is an amazing read on the game and the adversity the Bills and Allen almost overcame. 

 

The gist of it is that the entire game plan went out the window due to injuries and heat exhaustion.  Lots of plays they would have liked to call could not be used. Execution was all effed up because the guys on the field rarely play together.  Despite all that, Allen still got them within a win, and six key mistakes-- anyone of which went differently likely would have ended the game with a W-- cost them.  That does not do the article justice, but there it is.

I really think the fatigue of the heat helped on some of those miscues on offense as they were exhausted as mush as the unfamiliarity

[blacklabel]

14 hours ago, Casey D said:

58-60 yards

And from the right hash, same side he missed the 38 yarder. He tends to miss more from the right as it is so yeah definitely would’ve been a really difficult try. 

[LABILLBACKER]

15 hours ago, H2o said:

No, this one was not all on McDermott. It would have been nice to see him challenge the Gabe Davis reception that should have been a TD though. Just saying. 

Yeah he probably should've challenged Gabe's play. So what if it costs him a time out. He's just going to blow his TO's in the 3rd Qtr anyway. 😉

[John from Riverside]

19 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

That's the game I saw. Apparently everyone else saw the Dolphins totally dominate and crush the Bills to the point where they are the new #1 in "power rankings."

How’s the weather starts turning Miami will start fading in all these super irritating fin fans will be once again crying in their beer

[UKBillFan]

7 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I think that's just who Josh is.  Though he may still outgrow it.

I thought all that stuff was over, that he had already matured beyond it, but as soon as conditions were right for panic Josh to show up, he showed up.   We're probably just going to have to live with, and be content knowing that his entire package of pros and cons is still plenty good enough to win a SB.

 

 

I think that was the most concerning thing for me on Sunday (other than the mounting injuries) - that Josh seemed to return to Sugar High. But in truth is that a surprise? He’s had four strong games in a row, but showed signs of this through the regular season last year. However, on the flip side, can anyone blame him for what happened at the Dolphins considering the OL he was behind and, by the second half, he basically had no one to work with?

[RunTheBall]

You guys are delusional. Sugar high Josh? Please. No one beats a dead horse like TBD. Hey did you guys think Flutie should have been benched for Johnson? 

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

I think that was the most concerning thing for me on Sunday (other than the mounting injuries) - that Josh seemed to return to Sugar High. But in truth is that a surprise? He’s had four strong games in a row, but showed signs of this through the regular season last year. However, on the flip side, can anyone blame him for what happened at the Dolphins considering the OL he was behind and, by the second half, he basically had no one to work with?

Great now we’re going to start bashing on our Mvp bound unicorn quarterback

 

How many times did he throw during this game how many long drives 400 yards no Ints

 

[UKBillFan]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Great now we’re going to start bashing on our Mvp bound unicorn quarterback

 

How many times did he throw during this game how many long drives 400 yards no Ints

 

That’s what I said in my last sentence?

[Doc Brown]

19 hours ago, uninja said:

The last couple of drives Allen was pressing. He has a tendency to get like that when we're down and the clock is ticking. You were starting to see the more erratic, sugar-high, Josh. He had a handful of risky throws that by all accounts should have been intercepted.

 

I'm going to chalk it up to mental and physical exhaustion and having to play with a completely different cast of players that he's normally used to playing with.

Make it easier for him then.  On second and goal from the one on the second last drive have him qb sneak it.  If that doesn't work do it again.  Then maybe call that play to McKenzie.

[John from Riverside]

20 hours ago, uninja said:

The last couple of drives Allen was pressing. He has a tendency to get like that when we're down and the clock is ticking. You were starting to see the more erratic, sugar-high, Josh. He had a handful of risky throws that by all accounts should have been intercepted.

 

I'm going to chalk it up to mental and physical exhaustion and having to play with a completely different cast of players that he's normally used to playing with.

How many come from behind touchdown passes does Josh Allen have for this team Josh’s best under pressure

 

It was the team around him imploding that was the problem I center that can’t get them the ball a running game that wasn’t working pressure on every play and trying to run a long drive short Passinggame plan To keep the ball away from hill and waddle

 

The one thing that I don’t like that they’re doing is the third and one game plan this is an excellent opportunity to have a full back get you a yard and give the office of line some confidence and running the ball this passing out of shotgun to gain a yard thing is Driving me insane just another opportunity for somebody to take a hit at our quarterback

Edited September 28, 2022 by John from Riverside

[UKBillFan]

9 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

What did you say in your first sentence this whole reverting back bull####

I don’t think he’s reverting back to anything. I think that’s who he is - a phenomenal quarterback who has a precedence to force things when the going gets tough because he takes everything on his back in those situations. Whether we saw that at the weekend though is debatable for me. My thought, with head over emotion, is what else could he have done in that situation?

 

Saying that, the Josh for swathes of the 2021 regular season won’t just go away; the best thing will be that side of him will raise it’s head less and less as time goes on and he gains more experience. Or perhaps if and when we get an properly effective OL.

 

I wouldn’t change him for anything. For me he’s the best QB in the league with Mahomes a close second and, fingers crossed, will be with us for years.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, UKBillFan said:

I don’t think he’s reverting back to anything. I think that’s who he is - a phenomenal quarterback who has a precedence to force things when the going gets tough because he takes everything on his back in those situations. Whether we saw that at the weekend though is debatable for me. My thought, with head over emotion, is what else could he have done in that situation?

 

Saying that, the Josh for swathes of the 2021 regular season won’t just go away; the best thing will be that side of him will raise it’s head less and less as time goes on and he gains more experience. Or perhaps if and when we get an properly effective OL.

 

I wouldn’t change him for anything. For me he’s the best QB in the league with Mahomes a close second and, fingers crossed, will be with us for years.

This is Who Josh is you also wouldn’t have the big place if he wasn’t taking the big chances the funny thing about this is the majority of this game he was Tom Brady ISH just dissecting them all game along with a short passing game for a long time consuming drives instead of throwing the ball down the field I personally think we’re being over conservative in that area and should just let Josh sling it a little bit

[UKBillFan]

Just now, John from Riverside said:

This is Who Josh is you also wouldn’t have the big place if he wasn’t taking the big chances the funny thing about this is the majority of this game he was Tom Brady ISH just dissecting them all game along with a short passing game for a long time consuming drives instead of throwing the ball down the field I personally think we’re being over conservative in that area and should just let Josh sling it a little bit

I think that was especially prevalent on Sunday because we wanted to prolong offensive drives and keep the depleted defense off the field.

 

I agree with you about the short down conversions. We’ve had some very odd play calling across the season which has put us on the back foot.

[GreggTX]

21 hours ago, H2o said:

Possession, two feet, and what seemed to be a football move before it was knocked out is what I saw. Even if we didn't get the call reversed by the refs, who were ABSOLUTELY suspect this game, I wouldn't have been mad at the challenge in any way. 

It wasn't the worst officiating ever, but the bias was obvious.