How many years can Josh be an Elite QB with his playing style?

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

This is a trick poll, right? There is no way to tell because there’s NEVER been a pro QB like Allen. Never. Otto Graham, Vick, Cunningham, Tarkenton, Cam, L.Jax, Gabriel, Kaap, etc. None of them had combined what Allen already brings to the table. 
 

So the Unicorn answer is the only answer.

 

I 100% agree with you, but it's still fun to speculate and regardless of how well built Allen is, he's still human.

 

If I had to guess Allen could play like this and last another 10 years without severe adjustment to his game, but considering how hard we know he works in the offseason and how much of a competitor he is it wouldn't surprise me if he took the Tom Brady obsessive approach to taking care of his body and Allen plays like this to 40 or beyond.

[John from Riverside]

I guess this is a bad time to point out that Josh Allen's game has already evolved to where he passes a lot more from the pocket?

 

You cant count the times where the protection breaks down and he extends the play.....hopefully the bills will continue to work towards a dominant OL

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Good thing the ratio isn't 27.8% over the last 2 seasons. During that time he's attempted 1218 passes and ran the ball 224 times, that's not anywhere near 27.8%. 

 

 I don't know where you got these numbers, but his run to pass ratio didn't increase the last 2 years over the previous 2, it actually went down quite a bit????? In his first 2 years he had 781 passes and 198 rushes, as I mentioned above the last 2 years he attempted 1218 passes while only rushing 224 times. If he didn't miss the 4 1/2 games as a rookie he actually would've had more rushes his first 2 years with over 400 fewer passes.

 

 Now that we don't have to worry about that it will leave plenty of time for people to worry about other things.  

 

You're absolutely right. This was done at night while drinking. I mixed up completions with attempts for that number for Josh.

 

The run percentage did, in fact, go down. It was 18.4%.

[Victory Formation]

Anyone else find it curious that most fans think that Allen has about 10 years left with his current playing style? But many gloss over the fact that Edmunds is in his 5th year at a position that is way more physical and violent than QB?

 

I don’t care if Edmunds declared for the draft at 19, by the time he’s 30 he’ll be ready to hang them up.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Watch clips of younger Big Ben. Dude created with his legs a ton. It’s a good comp. He was still capable later in career when he couldn’t move anymore, but just wasn’t the same. 

 

Big Ben also just retired before 40 and has been a shell of himself the last couple seasons.

 

Granted, he's also notorious for not taking care of himself in the offseason.

[Solomon Grundy]

8 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

This is a trick poll, right? There is no way to tell because there’s NEVER been a pro QB like Allen. Never. Otto Graham, Vick, Cunningham, Tarkenton, Cam, L.Jax, Gabriel, Kaap, etc. None of them had combined what Allen already brings to the table. 
 

So the Unicorn answer is the only answer.

Steve Young might be the closest 

3 hours ago, klos63 said:

While he takes more hits than most QB's because of his running, he doesn't initiate the hits like Cam did, i think that did him in, and he doesn't really take hard hits. Hopefully, he continues to get better at avoiding the big hits.

He's different than most QBs that run, like Jordan Palmer said, he's the greatest athlete to play QB. That will make him stand out above the others.

Cam used to get a bunch of “extra curricular” hits too

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

Cam injured his shoulder in the pocket and needed surgery multiple times on it. He never could throw the ball the same after that.

 

It actually doesn't have anything to do with him running the ball and taking hits.

 

Newton also got into a bad car accident and had some lower back surgery as a result from what I can recall 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

I love Josh but 😆 I have to agree. 
 

a bit of an obsession going on here 

A bit of overcompensation for the initial dislike of the pick by tranny

 

Mmmmhmmm... leave it to @SlimShady'sSpaceForce to accuse another poster of overcompensating

[klos63]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Newton also got into a bad car accident and had some lower back surgery as a result from what I can recall 

Forgot about that,  broke 2 bones in his back. Won the mvp the following season,  but that's gotta hurt in the long term. 

[Big Blitz]

His 2 closest modern comps are Cam and Ben 

 

Cam was never an elite passer.  Ever.  

 

Ben up until these last 2 years has been able to avoid pressure in the pocket - which is what we still want Josh to do at 35.  Rodgers still does this very well.

 

But no doubt Allen can't and won't be doing what he does on the ground to long after 30.  The key right now is that he stays healthy and not take too many big hits.  Move his game to more what Mahomes does rather than embrace him as an actual RB at times.   

 

 

So if anyone thinks the potential "rift" with Daboll and McD was over just calling more run plays - no way I believe that.  If they had any hard philosophical discussion it was McD telling Daboll "I'm going to need you to not shorten this franchise QB's shelf life, thank you."

 

For now it should be Josh unleashed in big games vs great teams where we need his legs, only in regular season.  Circumstances of the season can dictate when that is.  And you really limit this if you find a running back.  

 

In playoffs fully unleashed. 

Edited February 5, 2022 by Big Blitz

[LABILLBACKER]

To get the most out of the "ridiculous optimum version" of Josh, he'll need to get his first championship before his 30th birthday. After 30 you'll see the scrambling version move toward pocket Josh. I strongly doubt he plays past 40 but I can see him getting a 2nd ring in his late 30's. The AFC is so ridiculously loaded with elite qbs that whoever wins the AFC will be strong favorites to win the SB.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You'd be having the babies, Son

 

I'm curious where you sourced (or how you calculated) this data?

 

I just looked quickly at the last 2 years on pro-football-reference.com, and when I take Allen rush attempts/(rush attempts plus pass attempts)*100 I get:

2021: 22.7%

2020: 19.9%

 

Which can not average to "27.8% over the last 2 years", so it makes me wonder about your overall numbers.

 

 

Made this thread during some Friday night drinking, hence the miscalculation (I mixed up completions and attempts) which I fixed and mixing up the parenting of my babies, which I will leave up because it's amusing.

[FireChans]

12 hours ago, MJS said:

The thing that is unique about Josh is he is an elite passer with a cannon arm AND an elite running QB.

 

In 5 more years if he can't run it like he used to, fine, he is still an elite passer with a cannon for an arm. He is getting smarter and more and more he is able to dissect defenses. So soon he will be an elite QB mentally, not just physically (if he isn't already), so even if he loses some physical ability over time to throw it, he'll still be an elite QB.

 

Still, I voted 10 more years. Guys don't often have 19 year careers. Anything over 14 or 15 years with a QB is just bonus. He has plenty of time to win some Superbowls.

Yes this is kind of a flawed question because he’s already played 4 years. Josh will stop trying to truck dudes LONG before 10 years from now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Forgot about that,  broke 2 bones in his back. Won the mvp the following season,  but that's gotta hurt in the long term. 

 

Wow, actually I don't even think I knew that.  Yeah, that's gotta have an impact

[Hapless Bills Fan]

30 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Made this thread during some Friday night drinking, hence the miscalculation (I mixed up completions and attempts) which I fixed and mixing up the parenting of my babies, which I will leave up because it's amusing.

 

So just of interest, I see that that Russ Wilson and Josh have similar numbers.

 

Russ Wilson says he spends "at least" $1M annually on his mind and body

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/nfls-russell-wilson-spends-at-least-1-million-a-year-on-health.html

 

Stuff he spends on:

-2 hypobaric chambers which he uses 4x a week

-a "mental conditioning expert", Trevor Moawad, to get him into the right mindset before games

-a physical therapist

-a massage therapist

-a trainer who "travels every where with him and his wife"

-a "mobile person" who makes sure he is "moving the right way"

-2 chefs

 

I wonder how much of that stuff Josh does?  I know he talked admiringly about how Diggs takes care of his body "better than anyone I know"

 

I know 'Zo Alexander and Steven A Smith had an exchange about taking care of their bodies, including cold therapy, deep acupuncture, deep tissue massage, Pilates, keto diet etc. 

 

One of the group asked 'Zo if he gave his young teammates advice, and he said something like "I give it, but they don't listen to me because they're young.  They just roll out of bed on Tuesday morning and go." Smith chimed in with "you get older, you're like Nuh Uh, Not today, Gimme that deep acupuncture, Gimme that massage"

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Voted for ten years, but given your choices I took it to mean ten more years. 

 

Yes that's what I meant 

[Buffalo Boy]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He stiff arms guys on a regular basis. 

The 2nd clip I showed above, Allen "tow-trucked" a would be tackler, basically hauling him down after himself as he went out of bounds. 3:29 in.

 

Beane says he's improving, but he still tries to run over guys.  Again, can't comment on how often vs how often Newton did it, didn't make a study.

   The difference between Josh and Cam is Cam didn’t have the pocket awareness of Josh. Cam took a bunch of hits in the pocket that Josh doesn’t. 
   In 2015, Cam was insane the way he was seeking contact. However, I honestly feel like they are about even and I watched both of them equally. Cam was done when Josh came on the scene for the most part.

[Buffalo Boy]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I guess this is a bad time to point out that Josh Allen's game has already evolved to where he passes a lot more from the pocket?

 

You cant count the times where the protection breaks down and he extends the play.....hopefully the bills will continue to work towards a dominant OL

   Josh behind an above average line with a competent running back and rushing attack makes us a force to be reconned with for years. 
   A dominant O line🤩

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Newton also got into a bad car accident and had some lower back surgery as a result from what I can recall 

   He fractured a Transverse Process on one of his vertebrae which sounds bad but is/ was not a big deal. He got luck as it was a pretty bad wreck.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

25 years as QBs are basically untouchable any more.

 

 

[nbbillsfan]

He will be Elite for a long time.

 

Will he have to change/evolve his game as he ages and the athleticism deteriorates? Of course.

 

What gives me immense confidence in his longevity is his work ethic/love of the game.  He has already put in so much work to make the necessary changes to be QB1. He is not just some Super-Athlete that is good because of his Athletic talent, he works. I have no doubt that his drive to be great will propel him to make any changes required to be elite. 

[loyal2dagame]

Everybody talks Cam Newton. I call bullshizzle. Josh compares to Elway. Everybody needs to stop the Cam stuff. Cam had never done what our guy is doing.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

Everybody talks Cam Newton. I call bullshizzle. Josh compares to Elway. Everybody needs to stop the Cam stuff. Cam had never done what our guy is doing.

 

I don't really think Josh compares to anyone, but Elway is probably the closest with a bit of Steve Young mixed in.

[Norcalbillsfan]

23 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

Everybody talks Cam Newton. I call bullshizzle. Josh compares to Elway. Everybody needs to stop the Cam stuff. Cam had never done what our guy is doing.

I won't take anything from cam in his prime, he was elite. And he tore up his throwing shoulder which led to the dumpster fire that is his passing game now. 

But where joshs game is different is his ability to read and adjust to defenses. He can sit in the pocket and pick teams apart. His rushing ability is infuriating for defenses but if you completely take away joshs rushing ability he's still going to beat you with his arm. When cams rushing game wasn't elite anymore you see where his game went, but like I said before he had some tough injuries that led to his downfall.

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I don't really think Josh compares to anyone, but Elway is probably the closest with a bit of Steve Young mixed in.

+ McNabb and McNair all combined in 1

[RyanC883]

On 2/5/2022 at 3:24 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Good job Josh isn't a running Quarterback then. 

 

i think the difference is the amount if running.  Does Josh see an open lane, run, then slide.  But designed or RPO running plays where he batters himself into people as an essential RB have to stop.  Even Romo commented on how much Daboll was running Josh v. KC. One game like that is okay, but it was all season.  Josh has a can on arm, use that and get a battering back. 

[RyanC883]

On 2/5/2022 at 2:43 PM, BringBackFlutie said:

True.  I was a little confused by that post.  Sure Allen gets down and out of the way more than Cam, but when he knows he needs another yard, he not only stays up, but he punishes whoever tries to tackle him.  Didn't he stiff arm a linebacker out of bounds after a run?

 

Agreed.  I’m fine with him using his hammer ability for a yard when needed, but he should generally slide.  Brady played till 44 because he slid.  Josh can still gain a ton of yards, move around in the pocket lime Rodgers, and throw a great ball without needing to bash ppl all over running.  

[Richard Noggin]

On 2/5/2022 at 8:41 AM, Mango said:

So let me start by saying Josh is already better than Cam. 
 

But they have a lot of similar traits and a similar playing style. The biggest concern is their similarity in how they see defenders as a ball carrier. Josh is a better passer but the physicality in Cams game still had him fall off a cliff. 
 

Josh has to learn to protect himself sooner rather than later. 
 

That’s my biggest fear. He goes the way of Cam and suddenly blows because of all the hits he has taken.

Even Allen himself has begun admitting the obvious, that his body takes a beating during the season. I'm sure most of us have heard little mentions in interviews. He's young enough and strong enough and lucky enough thus far to still be effective even when sore and to bounce back in the offseason. But NO ONE escapes the toll that repeated NFL collisions take on the human body (except maybe Adrian Peterson).

 

We all know that annoying, empty vessel (who wore #12 and recently retired to much fanfare) consistently and sheepishly (and maybe smartly) avoided hits like that other whiner, Marino. Except that one time decades ago. Bless you, Nate Clements. 

[Awwufelloff]

His style is unsustainable, anyone saying otherwise is 100% incorrect. Hopefully we can get a better oline and a running game so he can stay in the pocket and toss it around. Without that I'd give him 5 years before his body starts to slowly break down.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

i think the difference is the amount if running.  Does Josh see an open lane, run, then slide.  But designed or RPO running plays where he batters himself into people as an essential RB have to stop.  Even Romo commented on how much Daboll was running Josh v. KC. One game like that is okay, but it was all season.  Josh has a can on arm, use that and get a battering back. 

 

It really wasn't all season. They really only went back the called run game for Josh late in the year.

[CoudyBills]

On 2/5/2022 at 8:17 AM, Chandler#81 said:

Complete rubbish. Tarkenton, Elway, Cunningham, Graham, Vick -the list is long of QBs who ran very well. RBs? I’m not even gonna start the list sans Thurman, Sweetness, Jim Brown. They DO.

How on earth did I miss Elway in this conversation...doh.  Good pull.  Tark was way before my time.

[TBBills]

At least 20 years

[Billsatlastin2018]

Not sure if a majority of Bills fans have checked out Josh’s present rankings. Let’s say he plays at an excellent level and comparable to the past 2 Seasons. Let’s use the ‘5 good seasons’ bar. Barring injury, he would be at the ripe old age of 30.

 

Here goes:

 

ALL TIME TD PASSES- REGULAR SEASON 

 

2021- Ranked # 134 with 103 TDs

In 5 years, ranked # 18, 35 TDs per year, just behind Johnny Unitas @ 290.

 

ALL TIME PASSING YARDS- REGULAR SEASON 

 

2021- Ranked # 164 with 14,114 Yards

In 5 years, ranked # 36, just behind Tony Romo @ 34,000 yards

 

Here are the cooler ones. The assumption here is that based on the Regular Season performance, Allen is leading the Bills to the Playoffs, to the AFC Championship games and to the obvious possibility of winning 1-2 Super Bowls.

 

ALL TIME TD PASSING YARDS- PLAYOFFS

 

2021- Ranked # 45 with 1718. 

Assume just 300 yards per x 15 games. In 5 years, he would presently be ranked # THREE All Time, with 6,200 yards! Behind only Peyton & the GOAT.

( Of course, Rodgers & Mahomes are still rising too- but still.

 

ALL TIME TD PASSES- PLAYOFFS

 

2021- Ranked # 30 with 14 TDs. 

Let’s assume a 2.5/ game rate. In 5 years, he would vault to # TWO All Time with about 50 TDs.

 

What about Rushing, since that’s such a critical component of the Bills Offence and Allen’s own ability to succeed Passing?
And again- he is NOT an RB!

 

ALL TIME TDs RUSHING- REGULAR SEASON

 

2021- Ranked # 208 with 31 TDs

Assuming average 6/ would be #50 All Time with 61 TDs. Tieing OJ and only behind Cam Newton with 75 and the # 25 position. 

 

ALL TIME - RUSHING YARDS- PLAYOFFS

 

2021- Presently ranked well below # 50 with 371 yards.

 

Assuming the Bills want to reduce the per game average, to ensure he’s healthy, let’s assume 60/ He immediately becomes the ALL TIME QB Playoff Rusher with 671, eclipsing Steve Young at 594 and # 21. Thurman is # 3 with 1442.

 

Simply astonishing! 

At 30, coupled with Playoff winning success, on his way to being the best of the best... EVER!