Changing the gameplan due to weather

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

This isn’t another weather or dome thread— I promise!
 

in light of what is expected to be extraordinarily windy conditions on MNF, how do you think each team’s roster and gameplan changes, if at all? 
 

Here are a few thoughts I have had:

 

1) patriots defense goes back to man. From everything I have read, the Pats have gone increasingly zone (cover 2 shell, cover 4) over the last several weeks. With heavy wind, I would expect they could revert to man and loaded boxes— taking away the run and everything short and actually giving us the deep stuff.

 

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs. 
 

 

[SoCal Deek]

Put in Lamonica…bombs away! 😉

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs.

I don't know if they do. Don't they have to deactivate 3 for Brown, Star, and Mongo coming back? I guess they could work it somehow if they wanted. Depends who they decide to sit 

[Success]

Daboll is going to be tested in this one. I agree that activating all 3 would be a good idea.

 

The Pats have been playing this game all season, with & without wind.  Short passing, running outside, running inside.  If I'm a Pats fan, I LOVE this forecast.

 

The Bills are the team that has to play against type.  If Daboll is HC worthy, this is the kind of game he proves it.

 

[Albany,n.y.]

Bills run 3 times, get stuffed each time & never run the ball again except on designed QB runs.  Josh passes for 300 yards & runs for 200.  Bills win by 21. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

10 minutes ago, Success said:

Daboll is going to be tested in this one. I agree that activating all 3 would be a good idea.

 

The Pats have been playing this game all season, with & without wind.  Short passing, running outside, running inside.  If I'm a Pats fan, I LOVE this forecast.

 

The Bills are the team that has to play against type.  If Daboll is HC worthy, this is the kind of game he proves it.

 

Daboll is my biggest concern. Doesn’t seem like he usually gameplans based on the weather or risk of weather.  In our playoff game against Baltimore

last year— which was very windy— we threw the ball almost 40 times. 

[muppy]

I hate to say it but the horrific winds would imo work more against Allen and the bills than the pats.  The coin toss will be an important decision as always in wny  ......So Field position and scoring TD's also are paramount  because your kicking game will surely be affected. Warmups into the game will be telling how that is going to go.  Im of the "I love the outdoor ambiance but for the benefit of #17 dang a dome would be sweet. I'm torn.

 

GO BILLS

 

m 

[Big Turk]

Looks like the weather forecast is trending in the wrong direction...

 

showers transitioning into snow during the game...wins in the low 20s with higher gusts.

[Doc Brown]

Are the winds supposed to be worse than the Skins game?

[SCBills]

29 minutes ago, Muppy said:

I hate to say it but the horrific winds would imo work more against Allen and the bills than the pats.  The coin toss will be an important decision as always in wny  ......So Field position and scoring TD's also are paramount  because your kicking game will surely be affected. Warmups into the game will be telling how that is going to go.  Im of the "I love the outdoor ambiance but for the benefit of #17 dang a dome would be sweet. I'm torn.

 

GO BILLS

 

m 

Id rather not have this forecast BUT, when teams become one dimensional, McDermott/Frazier’s Defenses have been lights out… see Baltimore Divisional Game, when they were supposed to be the worst case scenario for us.  
 

Can Mac operate a passing offense in those conditions?  If this forecast comes true, we’ll find out.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This isn’t another weather or dome thread— I promise!
 

in light of what is expected to be extraordinarily windy conditions on MNF, how do you think each team’s roster and gameplan changes, if at all? 
 

Here are a few thoughts I have had:

 

1) patriots defense goes back to man. From everything I have read, the Pats have gone increasingly zone (cover 2 shell, cover 4) over the last several weeks. With heavy wind, I would expect they could revert to man and loaded boxes— taking away the run and everything short and actually giving us the deep stuff.

 

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs. 
 

 

 

Moss, Breida and Singletary were all active for the Colts game.  Gilliam was active.  Kumerow was inactive.

 

Pretty sure Moss, Breida and Singletary were also all active for the Dolphins.  (rummage, rummage).  Yes, yes they were and so was Gilliam AND Kumerow - looks like they went with 8 DL instead of 9 that game.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Moss, Breida and Singletary were all active for the Colts game.  Gilliam was active.  Kumerow was inactive.

 

Pretty sure Moss, Breida and Singletary were also all active for the Dolphins.  (rummage, rummage).  Yes, yes they were and so was Gilliam AND Kumerow - looks like they went with 8 DL instead of 9 that game.

i don’t think Breida got touches in that dolphins game? And I blocked out the colts game from my mind—haha! 

 

i do think though, we will see those guys back there together. We did a little of that in a game earlier in the year when Moss and DS were in the backfield together. And given that Gilliam is Gimpy, I think it makes

more sense. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i don’t think Breida got touches in that dolphins game? And I blocked out the colts game from my mind—haha! 

 

He got a couple of snaps - literally, 2 snaps on offense, and a handful of snaps on ST.

 

18 snaps in the Colts game, but only touched the ball 7 times

 

11 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

i do think though, we will see those guys back there together. We did a little of that in a game earlier in the year when Moss and DS were in the backfield together. And given that Gilliam is Gimpy, I think it makes

more sense. 

 

 

I'd like to see Gilliam play, but it would make most sense to play healthy guys.

[letsgoteam]

My very short sighted, "hot" take, just yapping without any facts/proof/evidence is that the Bills don't do well accounting for weather into their game plans. 

 

I think back to the Eagles game a few years ago where the wind just seemed to kill their game plan. Same with the Colts game this year. However, I felt it more in that Eagles game. Again, zero evidence, just how I "felt".

[DrPJax]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This isn’t another weather or dome thread— I promise!
 

in light of what is expected to be extraordinarily windy conditions on MNF, how do you think each team’s roster and gameplan changes, if at all? 
 

Here are a few thoughts I have had:

 

1) patriots defense goes back to man. From everything I have read, the Pats have gone increasingly zone (cover 2 shell, cover 4) over the last several weeks. With heavy wind, I would expect they could revert to man and loaded boxes— taking away the run and everything short and actually giving us the deep stuff.

 

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs. 
 

 

Pats are riding a 6 game winning streak.  Don’t see them changing anything.   Allen has the strength to still beat them deep plus they want to stay in zone because they want eyes on the qb.  Esp, a running qb like Allen and they have said playing zone is why they are so good at getting turnovers now and I believe they lead the league in turnover differential..  The zone may not be as deep but I doubt they change what has gotten them to 1st place UNTIL someone proves they can beat them.  They won’t change offense much except now they prob can’t go after whites replacement as much as they might have liked too.   If I was them, I don’t take a chance on a blown man coverage and make Allen prove he can be patient in weather.  Would keep in zone and spy on him and make the Bills prove they can run the ball. 
 

 

Daboll will need to do some counter action, jet sweeps , and like you mentioned , time to bring in the FB and more protection for Allen because Judon and a very good d line are coming. Have to work w Allen on quick release this week, because if he keeps holding the ball , he is in for some bad sacks.   I hope Daboll uses up tempo to mitigate the rush and wear down the d line.   Also try rushing more if Brown is back ?  Not going to be able to spread it out anyhow against that d AND bad weather , so possessions , not turning the ball over is our hope to win. Don’t be afraid to run or punt , and play field position as Bass should have an advantage knowing the winds better.  
 

Get Brieda the ball more, and use. Singletary and Allen running as well.  Moss might be motivated but I’m not sitting Brieda to take another chance on moss showing up unfocused plus I’m not taking the threat of Breidas speed away.  He could take a screen or short wheel route all the way and moss can’t do that.   Even using the threat of Briedas speed with putting him in motion will open things up for Allen. Playing moss just brings the D up tighter as he is no deep threat. I can’t see activating all 3 rbs unless you sit an offensive or defensive lineman.Also  I definitely work on ways to get the ball in Knox’s hands; reverse, screens, shovel pass , jump pass to him by a back in the red zone etc.  
 

I was kidding about the Bills fearing the weather before but if it’s going to be gusty , really it could play in our favor with good play calling It would essentially take away any Pats passing game , but then Mcd/ Frazier have to be willing to run blitz or get out of their 4-2-5 because we will be seeing power running with two tight ends or extra lineman all night. It’s our home so we should be practicing in that weather every day to gain an advantage in the short passing game to augment our anemic running.and keep drilling Josh that in this situation  punting or throwing it away is better than ints!  Going to be low scoring, everybody thinking this favors the pats.  However, knowing what’s expected , no excuse we can’t adjust our D and O play calling to our advantage. If we stick with the same usual strategies, it wouldn’t surprise me if we got blown out playing finesse football.  We know what’s coming so a third loss at home would be a very disappointing coaching season by McD. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Lots of 1 back and empty back sets. The Pats won't be expecting it given the weather conditions that are expected. 

 

Allen has a career high in rushing attempts. 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Buffalo619 said:

A bit off topic or foreshadowing, will missing the playoffs motivate our owners to spend for a dome?

 

That may be the inspiration they need. 

 

 

A dome would cost in the area of $2B extra. 

 

Ain't happening.

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Looks like the weather forecast is trending in the wrong direction...

 

showers transitioning into snow during the game...wins in the low 20s with higher gusts.

BT, I don’t worry about rain or snow as Josh has okayed in the most difficult conditions, but our significant adv. is the  pass.  Mac will not have JA’s arm.  Wind is my concern.  
 

If it remains in the 20’s mph range for wind, that is fine, but if escalating to the 40’s which is hard for any QB, then advantage Patriots.  Their massive O Line, and very productive running game will trump our team.

 

So my early Xmas present would be low mph winds.  I don’t care about anything else.

[Draconator]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

A dome would cost in the area of $2B extra. 

 

Ain't happening.

No. A dome is not going to be an extra $2 Billion Dollars....

[Matt_In_NH]

12 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game,

 

This was done at least once already

Edited December 3, 2021 by mattynh

[Gordio]

You out of towners crack me up.  It is going to rain in the morning with 25 mph winds(gusts up to 50 mph) but winds diminishing in the afternoon, temps drop dramatically as they start out on the 50s and will be in the low 30s by the afternoon.  By game time winds will be about 15 mph, and a chance of flurries.  If we pick up an inch or two of snow I will be surprised.  Channel 2 especially Patrick Hammer likes to spew this crap all the time and get everybody worked up but look at the models.  They are not that bad.  Josh Allen and the bazooka he has attached to his right arm will be just fine.  

[hondo in seattle]

13 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This isn’t another weather or dome thread— I promise!
 

in light of what is expected to be extraordinarily windy conditions on MNF, how do you think each team’s roster and gameplan changes, if at all? 
 

Here are a few thoughts I have had:

 

1) patriots defense goes back to man. From everything I have read, the Pats have gone increasingly zone (cover 2 shell, cover 4) over the last several weeks. With heavy wind, I would expect they could revert to man and loaded boxes— taking away the run and everything short and actually giving us the deep stuff.

 

2) Bills change up personnel and focus on run game. I am predicting that the Bills for the first time activate DS, Moss, and Breida for the same game, and that we may see two of the three in the backfield at the same time. This may be stating the obvious, but out of necessity, I would expect a run heavy offense. Lots of two TE formations.  Lots of sweeps. Designed QB runs. 
 

 

 

When running is our weakness and passing is our strength, why would the Pats choose to focus on our running?   Because of a little wind?

 

I personally don't expect loaded boxes.  

[PromoTheRobot]

Even Diggs knows you take the points. Listen to this quote about Tyler Bass half way in.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[muppy]

15 minutes ago, Gordio said:

You out of towners crack me up.  It is going to rain in the morning with 25 mph winds(gusts up to 50 mph) but winds diminishing in the afternoon, temps drop dramatically as they start out on the 50s and will be in the low 30s by the afternoon.  By game time winds will be about 15 mph, and a chance of flurries.  If we pick up an inch or two of snow I will be surprised.  Channel 2 especially Patrick Hammer likes to spew this crap all the time and get everybody worked up but look at the models.  They are not that bad.  Josh Allen and the bazooka he has attached to his right arm will be just fine.  

thanks gordio. I say this very lovingly what you wrote was exactly what my buffalo born and raised mother would say to me constantly......weather was not a huge worry to my mom LOL...sooo matter of fact about it ...HA! I called her once to ask about a weather report Id heard here about Batavia...she said well snow is up to the mailbox its not too bad.....I say MOM the mailbox is 4 feet from the ground...she say yeah but the winds not blowing its just snow its not too bad.......

 

thanks for the jog down memory lane :-))))

 

 

and as far as Josh and his arm OH YES You're right there too.

 

m

Edited December 3, 2021 by Muppy

[PromoTheRobot]

14 minutes ago, Gordio said:

You out of towners crack me up.  It is going to rain in the morning with 25 mph winds(gusts up to 50 mph) but winds diminishing in the afternoon, temps drop dramatically as they start out on the 50s and will be in the low 30s by the afternoon.  By game time winds will be about 15 mph, and a chance of flurries.  If we pick up an inch or two of snow I will be surprised.  Channel 2 especially Patrick Hammer likes to spew this crap all the time and get everybody worked up but look at the models.  They are not that bad.  Josh Allen and the bazooka he has attached to his right arm will be just fine.  

Okay, but what happens when the wet ball thrown by Bazooka Josh goes off our receivers hands, like it did the last time we played in the rain?

[muppy]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Okay, but what happens when the wet ball thrown by Bazooka Josh goes off our receivers hands, like it did the last time we played in the rain?

True. Yep. and to train for wet balls and wind yeah Im sure they try but game day is a whole different ballgame

Edited December 3, 2021 by Muppy

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

  People act like the Pats* have an advantage in this game due to the forecast and that they are this great running team, while we're horrible at it.

 

  We rank 11th in the league in rushing at 118.3 YPG, the Pats* are behind us in 12th place averaging 115.3 YPG. Allen has the monster arm to combat the wind, Jones doesn't. Allen can take off if nothing is there, Jones has 71 rushing yards on the year.

 

  Also our defense is ranked higher than theirs in almost every category. They are going to have to combat, what I assume, is going to be a extremely loud stadium when on offense. I would say we have most of the advantages, not them.

Edited December 3, 2021 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[nucci]

21 minutes ago, Gordio said:

You out of towners crack me up.  It is going to rain in the morning with 25 mph winds(gusts up to 50 mph) but winds diminishing in the afternoon, temps drop dramatically as they start out on the 50s and will be in the low 30s by the afternoon.  By game time winds will be about 15 mph, and a chance of flurries.  If we pick up an inch or two of snow I will be surprised.  Channel 2 especially Patrick Hammer likes to spew this crap all the time and get everybody worked up but look at the models.  They are not that bad.  Josh Allen and the bazooka he has attached to his right arm will be just fine.  

I think winds may be higher than 15mph...if only 15 then weather won't have any effect on the game...20-30 then there's an issue

[hondo in seattle]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Okay, but what happens when the wet ball thrown by Bazooka Josh goes off our receivers hands, like it did the last time we played in the rain?

 

It may be that the weather hurts our passing game.  I just don't think Belichick will game plan for that.  I think he'll try to limit our medium-to-deep game like other defensive coaches have.  I don't think he'll load the box, assuming we can't pass because of the weather.

 

And I don't think Daboll is going to scheme up some amazing running game because of the weather.  We're not built for that.   We're built to pass.  

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

48 minutes ago, Gordio said:

You out of towners crack me up.  It is going to rain in the morning with 25 mph winds(gusts up to 50 mph) but winds diminishing in the afternoon, temps drop dramatically as they start out on the 50s and will be in the low 30s by the afternoon.  By game time winds will be about 15 mph, and a chance of flurries.  If we pick up an inch or two of snow I will be surprised.  Channel 2 especially Patrick Hammer likes to spew this crap all the time and get everybody worked up but look at the models.  They are not that bad.  Josh Allen and the bazooka he has attached to his right arm will be just fine.  

i hope you are right. But the forecast now is not your “normal” sort of weather. It’s calling for sort of a rare “high wind event.” 

[hondo in seattle]

31 minutes ago, Muppy said:

thanks gordio. I say this very lovingly what you wrote was exactly what my buffalo born and raised mother would say to me constantly......weather was not a huge worry to my mom LOL...sooo matter of fact about it ...HA! I called her once to ask about a weather report Id heard here about Batavia...she said well snow is up to the mailbox its not too bad.....I say MOM the mailbox is 4 feet from the ground...she say yeah but the winds not blowing its just snow its not too bad.......

 

thanks for the jog down memory lane :-))))

 

 

and as far as Josh and his arm OH YES You're right there too.

 

m

 

Yeah, Buffalonians have a different attitude about snow.  

 

I was living in Seattle running a bunch of restaurants several winters ago and surprised when I started getting reports that my restaurant managers weren't opening their restaurants due to snow.  I got into my SUV, drove to multiple locations in a full 3 inches of snow, and was entirely perplexed.

 

Another time, the Seattle area was largely closed down because a local weather event dubbed, "Snowmaggedon."  I was in Buffalo at the time and showed a video of Snowmaggedon to my nephew who commented, "Snowmaggedon?  Hmm.  We call that Tuesday."  

 

Hopefully Josh loves this weather more than Mac.

[muppy]

28 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Yeah, Buffalonians have a different attitude about snow.  

 

I was living in Seattle running a bunch of restaurants several winters ago and surprised when I started getting reports that my restaurant managers weren't opening their restaurants due to snow.  I got into my SUV, drove to multiple locations in a full 3 inches of snow, and was entirely perplexed.

 

Another time, the Seattle area was largely closed down because a local weather event dubbed, "Snowmaggedon."  I was in Buffalo at the time and showed a video of Snowmaggedon to my nephew who commented, "Snowmaggedon?  Hmm.  We call that Tuesday."  

 

Hopefully Josh loves this weather more than Mac.

snowmageddon LOL OH THE DRAMA though lol.......yeah there's some of my mother in me too :-)) hahaaa

 

m

29 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i hope you are right. But the forecast now is not your “normal” sort of weather. It’s calling for sort of a rare “high wind event.” 

A rare high wind event for Orchard Park means what exactly though....? Can't be the usual gusts or straight flag either direction.....hmm I dunno

Edited December 3, 2021 by Muppy

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I think if there are winds of 20-30 mph it favors Josh Allen over Mac Jones.

 

It is possible they dress all 3 RBs, especially if Gilliam is knocked up, otherwise doubt it.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

6 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I think if there are winds of 20-30 mph it favors Josh Allen over Mac Jones.

 

It is possible they dress all 3 RBs, especially if Gilliam is knocked up, otherwise doubt it.

Knocked up? Reggie short for Regina?

 

Agreed though. Allen is supposed to have possibly the best arm in the NFL. This is a game his special arm and legs should provide the Bills with advantages. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

1 hour ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Knocked up? Reggie short for Regina?

 

Agreed though. Allen is supposed to have possibly the best arm in the NFL. This is a game his special arm and legs should provide the Bills with advantages. 

Regina/Reggie isn't sure what side of the fence they're on yet!

Edited December 3, 2021 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Knocked up? Reggie short for Regina?

 

Agreed though. Allen is supposed to have possibly the best arm in the NFL. This is a game his special arm and legs should provide the Bills with advantages. 

i love how everyone thinks Josh is Ike Uncle Rico, and can throw the ball

over the mountains. No one can throw an accurate pass more than 5 yards in 60 MPH wind gusts! Even in 20

MPH winds, go and watch that Ravens/Bills playoff game— it was horrible. 40 attempts for 200 yards passing. 
 

i just think that if Daboll doesn’t specifically gameplan for this weather, it’s going to be a sloppy mess on offense for us. Errant throws, dropped balls, etc. 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

57 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

  People act like the Pats* have an advantage in this game due to the forecast and that they are this great running team, while we're horrible at it.

 

  We rank 11th in the league in rushing at 118.3 YPG, the Pats* are behind us in 12th place averaging 115.3 YPG. Allen has the monster arm to combat the wind, Jones doesn't. Allen can take off if nothing is there, Jones has 71 rushing yards on the year.

 

  Also our defense is ranked higher than theirs in almost every category. They are going to have to combat, what I assume, is going to be a extremely loud stadium when on offense. I would say we have most of the advantages, not them.

Yeah but Fox put Mac Jones picture up instead of Josh. 

 

Doomed or something 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

17 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

i love how everyone thinks Josh is Ike Uncle Rico, and can throw the ball

over the mountains. No one can throw an accurate pass more than 5 yards in 60 MPH wind gusts! Even in 20

MPH winds, go and watch that Ravens/Bills playoff game— it was horrible. 40 attempts for 200 yards passing. 
 

i just think that if Daboll doesn’t specifically gameplan for this weather, it’s going to be a sloppy mess on offense for us. Errant throws, dropped balls, etc. 

 

Agreed in that yes of course Daboll needs to gameplan with the forecast in mind.
 

But my point is less “Josh has an Uncle Rico arm” and more “Josh’s arm and legs in whatever bad weather should be an advantage as compared to Mac Jones”.

[716er]

On September 26th, 2021 the Bills hosted the Washington Football Team at Highmark Stadium. Winds that day were in the 20-30 mph range the entire game. Josh Allen threw for 358 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mitch Trubisky threw for 1 yard.

 

Throw the ball all over the Pats, please. Over and over and over and over and over

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/south-cheektowaga/KBUF/date/2021-9-26

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Jeez! Every time I come on here the weather is worse and the winds are higher. Pretty soon people will be advancing the hyperbole to a hurricane and blizzard combined.