2021 Bills are the most inconsistent team ever tracked(back to 1983) through 12 weeks in terms of DVOA

[Big Turk]

In case you were wondering if there was a reason it feels like we have been on a roller coaster with the Bills this year...we have...Bills have the highest variance in DVOA week to week ever tracked through 12 weeks going back to the 1983 season at 44.5%.

 

Bills have 5 games over 60% DVOA this year, Patriots have 3 and no other NFL team has more than 2.

 

"Buffalo coming out of Week 12 with the second-best single-game rating at 72.3% is less of a surprise if you subjected yourself to their game with New Orleans on Thanksgiving night. The Bills put up their second-best defensive performance of the season at -53.5%, although there's a small asterisk there because the Saints' opponent adjustments are based on half a season of Jameis Winston and half a season of Trevor Siemian. The Bills' big Thanksgiving game now gives them five different games this season with a single-game rating over 60%. The Patriots have three such games and no other team has more than two.

 

Buffalo's variance is now 44.5%, which is the highest we have ever tracked going back to 1983. Someone pointed out on Twitter a week ago that it's not necessarily proper to compare variance after Week 12 to full-season variance; the Week 12 numbers should be a little higher because it's a smaller sample size. That's true, but Buffalo's current DVOA variance is also higher than any DVOA variance ever just through Week 12. Look for an article going further into the most inconsistent teams in DVOA history over at ESPN+ next Monday."

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2021/dvoa-has-patriots-closing-bucs

Edited December 1, 2021 by Big Turk

[First Round Bust]

internal issues - OL line COVID-injury-instability and poor play, impacts Josh and his split-second decision making, he is not sacked a lot but he surely is under pressure more than ever and credit his athletic-scrambling here more than the line...

external - we are playing some bad teams (backup qbs, poor offensive lines) and good teams and the stats-results seem to correlate to the quality of our opponents

[BADOLBILZ]

26 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

In case you were wondering if there was a reason it feels like we have been on a roller coaster with the Bills this year...we have...Bills have the highest variance in DVOA week to week ever tracked through 12 weeks going back to the 1983 season at 44.5%.

 

Bills have 5 games over 60% DVOA this year, Patriots have 3 and no other NFL team has more than 2.

 

"Buffalo coming out of Week 12 with the second-best single-game rating at 72.3% is less of a surprise if you subjected yourself to their game with New Orleans on Thanksgiving night. The Bills put up their second-best defensive performance of the season at -53.5%, although there's a small asterisk there because the Saints' opponent adjustments are based on half a season of Jameis Winston and half a season of Trevor Siemian. The Bills' big Thanksgiving game now gives them five different games this season with a single-game rating over 60%. The Patriots have three such games and no other team has more than two.

 

Buffalo's variance is now 44.5%, which is the highest we have ever tracked going back to 1983. Someone pointed out on Twitter a week ago that it's not necessarily proper to compare variance after Week 12 to full-season variance; the Week 12 numbers should be a little higher because it's a smaller sample size. That's true, but Buffalo's current DVOA variance is also higher than any DVOA variance ever just through Week 12. Look for an article going further into the most inconsistent teams in DVOA history over at ESPN+ next Monday."

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-analysis/2021/dvoa-has-patriots-closing-bucs

 

 

The Bills were clearly not actually expecting to play with a target on their back like they have.    Their schedule looked like a lot of teams that might just roll over.......like some did late in 2020.   But when you are a SB favorite every team looks at beating you like a chance to garner attention,  if nothing else.   

 

And with 14 playoff teams and 17 games.......more teams feel like they are in it.   Look at Miami......that extra game on the schedule gives them added optimism that they can get out of the hole they dug.    

[atlbillsfan1975]

For me, this is when you use statistics to look at each game to see what occurred. There is usually some concrete contributing factors to what causes the variance. Injuries, lack of performance by key players, breakdowns on plays at a critical point in the game...etc. 

The Bills can beat anyone in the NFL if both teams play their best game. Not many teams can say that. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Lines up with what we have seen.    Every win has been a convincing win, no chance to flip it on one play.  The losses are another story, blow out by the Colts at home.  Loss tot he Jags played anywhere scoring 6 points...the week 1 loss to a bad Steelers team.  It hard to believe this team has 4 losses, they are better than that.  But their inconsistency is the reason.  They need to get that fixed.

[FilthyBeast]

This is the type of statistical data that's most concerning to me because if anything it supports the theory that the Bills will be one and done in the playoffs if they even get there.

 

Just mind boggling that they can come out and crush a poor team like the Jets one week, then lose to another like the Jags or Steelers the next but this is still part of a bigger picture and reflection of poor coaching IMO and why it's not too soon to put McDermott on the hot seat after this season is over.

[teef]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

This is the type of statistical data that's most concerning to me because if anything it supports the theory that the Bills will be one and done in the playoffs if they even get there.

 

Just mind boggling that they can come out and crush a poor team like the Jets one week, then lose to another like the Jags or Steelers the next but this is still part of a bigger picture and reflection of poor coaching IMO and why it's not too soon to put McDermott on the hot seat after this season is over.

i'm guessing very few reasonable people would have this take.

[FilthyBeast]

Just now, teef said:

i'm guessing very few reasonable people would have this take.

 

I'm sure Bills mafia would be divided, but if the Bills don't make the playoffs period it's a very reasonable take because to go from an AFC championship game appearance to no playoffs the year has to be reflected somewhere whether on the GM, HC, etc.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

51 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills were clearly not actually expecting to play with a target on their back like they have.    Their schedule looked like a lot of teams that might just roll over.......like some did late in 2020.   But when you are a SB favorite every team looks at beating you like a chance to garner attention,  if nothing else.   

 

And with 14 playoff teams and 17 games.......more teams feel like they are in it.   Look at Miami......that extra game on the schedule gives them added optimism that they can get out of the hole they dug.    

It seems likely to me that they were theoretically aware they would get the A level effort of other teams, but the existential reality was more than they expected. Maybe it's one of those things you simply have to experience to gain sufficient knowledge. And injuries and Covid has played a role, that and Beane seems to have miscalculated the benefit of keeping the oline intact. Brown is a nice surprise, but the interior line has to be a priority going forward.

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

This is the type of statistical data that's most concerning to me because if anything it supports the theory that the Bills will be one and done in the playoffs if they even get there.

 

Just mind boggling that they can come out and crush a poor team like the Jets one week, then lose to another like the Jags or Steelers the next but this is still part of a bigger picture and reflection of poor coaching IMO and why it's not too soon to put McDermott on the hot seat after this season is over.

Looks like someone is jealous of @ScottLaw

 

You’re really giving it your all in recent weeks. Go see your doctor, maybe he can prescribe something to help you out

 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by NewEra

[teef]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I'm sure Bills mafia would be divided, but if the Bills don't make the playoffs period it's a very reasonable take because to go from an AFC championship game appearance to no playoffs the year has to be reflected somewhere whether on the GM, HC, etc.

 

 

so now it goes from being one and done to not making the playoffs?  even then it would be unreasonable to want anyone on this staff fired.  you'd want to get rid of the one coach this team has had any success with of the last 20 years and take a shot on a new one?  wouldn't it be more prudent to give them an offseason to smooth out the wrinkles and get things right?  

 

again, very few reasonable people would agree with you.

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills were clearly not actually expecting to play with a target on their back like they have.    Their schedule looked like a lot of teams that might just roll over.......like some did late in 2020.   But when you are a SB favorite every team looks at beating you like a chance to garner attention,  if nothing else.   

 

And with 14 playoff teams and 17 games.......more teams feel like they are in it.   Look at Miami......that extra game on the schedule gives them added optimism that they can get out of the hole they dug.    

 

I still don't give much credence to this theory because of the simple fact is all they did is win the division. And most of the interviews we saw from players in training camp indicated that they understood last year meant nothing and they have to do it all again this season so what changed exactly if that was their mindset heading into the 2021 campaign?

 

It makes more sense if you look at the Chiefs who did get off to a bad start this year as the defending AFC Champs but have finally found their footing and also quietly one of the hottest teams right now.

 

Whatever the case it's put up or shut up time now and it's not cliche to say this is the biggest game of the McD/Allen era coming up and true defining moment for both.

[billsfan1959]

10 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

This is the type of statistical data that's most concerning to me because if anything it supports the theory that the Bills will be one and done in the playoffs if they even get there.

 

Just mind boggling that they can come out and crush a poor team like the Jets one week, then lose to another like the Jags or Steelers the next but this is still part of a bigger picture and reflection of poor coaching IMO and why it's not too soon to put McDermott on the hot seat after this season is over.

 

The man has a .600 winning % with the Bills, .698 winning % over the last three years, three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons and you think he should be on the hot seat after this year?

[teef]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I still don't give much credence to this theory because of the simple fact is all they did is win the division. And most of the interviews we saw from players in training camp indicated that they understood last year meant nothing and they have to do it all again this season so what changed exactly if that was their mindset heading into the 2021 campaign?

 

It makes more sense if you look at the Chiefs who did get off to a bad start this year as the defending AFC Champs but have finally found their footing and also quietly one of the hottest teams right now.

 

Whatever the case it's put up or shut up time now and it's not cliche to say this is the biggest game of the McD/Allen era coming up and true defining moment for both.

last year under a different name, you made this same comment over and over and over.  according to you, half of the games this staff has played has been the biggest game of their tenure.  i'd take any of the playoff games as being more meaning full than any game this year, but that's just me.

[billsfan1959]

10 minutes ago, teef said:

i'm guessing very few reasonable people would have this take.

 

I'm guessing even few unreasonable people would have this take...he's in his own special little world

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, teef said:

so now it goes from being one and done to not making the playoffs?  even then it would be unreasonable to want anyone on this staff fired.  you'd want to get rid of the one coach this team has had any success with of the last 20 years and take a shot on a new one?  wouldn't it be more prudent to give them an offseason to smooth out the wrinkles and get things right?  

 

again, very few reasonable people would agree with you.

 

Just for the record, I wouldn't fire McDermott after this season even if the Bills lose out or whatever the ultimate outcome is. No he's not the worst coach in the league or this team as had even though I personally believe this team will never win a championship with him.

 

My point is that if you believe this team is in a true SB window, then after 2022 it's not unreasonable to make a GM/coaching change with anything less than a SB appearance.

 

So yes if this season is a failure in terms of no playoffs or one and done, why wouldn't McDermott (and Beane) be on a very hot seat heading into 2022?

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

My point is that if you believe this team is in a true SB window, then after 2022 it's not unreasonable to make a GM/coaching change with anything less than a SB appearance.

 

It is unreasonable.

 

Actually, it is bordering on the insane...

[FilthyBeast]

3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

The man has a .600 winning % with the Bills, .698 winning % over the last three years, three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons and you think he should be on the hot seat after this year?

 

Yes because it's a results driven league and this franchise should be at the point where just making the playoff isn't good enough. And pretty sure the Pegulas would agree given Allens recent contract extension and believe that a SB window is now open.

 

Obviously if he had a proven resume like Belichik, Tomlin, etc it wouldn't matter but getting to one AFC Championship game and winning a division title in a weird covid year when the Pats were in transition means absolutely nothing quite frankly.

 

At the end of the day I'm happy that things have been different the last 4 years but it doesn't mean fans have to a blind loyalty to this regime for that.

[teef]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Just for the record, I wouldn't fire McDermott after this season even if the Bills lose out or whatever the ultimate outcome is. No he's not the worst coach in the league or this team as had even though I personally believe this team will never win a championship with him.

 

My point is that if you believe this team is in a true SB window, then after 2022 it's not unreasonable to make a GM/coaching change with anything less than a SB appearance.

 

So yes if this season is a failure in terms of no playoffs or one and done, why wouldn't McDermott (and Beane) be on a very hot seat heading into 2022?

many didn't believe the bills would win one playoff game last year, and here we are.  you may not believe he can win a championship, but i bet the pegulas feel he can, which is what really matters.  i'm also not of the impression of specific windows to win a superbowl.  i get it, but as long as you have strong coaching and qb play, you're always in it.  

 

even if this year ends up being a total failure, i still don't think there will be questions about job security of anyone on this staff.  there would be major concerns, but i don't think the seat is hot at all.

[Sugar High JA17]

We should be asking, why isnt Josh Allen playing better. Thats my only concern, he's the one who should lead this team!

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, teef said:

many didn't believe the bills would win one playoff game last year, and here we are.  you may not believe he can win a championship, but i bet the pegulas feel he can, which is what really matters.  i'm also not of the impression of specific windows to win a superbowl.  i get it, but as long as you have strong coaching and qb play, you're always in it.  

 

even if this year ends up being a total failure, i still don't think there will be questions about job security of anyone on this staff.  there would be major concerns, but i don't think the seat is hot at all.

 

Fair enough and you did hit the nail on the head....it's what the Pegulas think that ultimately matters not me or any other jo blow fan on here.

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Yes because it's a results driven league and this franchise should be at the point where just making the playoff isn't good enough. And pretty sure the Pegulas would agree given Allens recent contract extension and believe that a SB window is now open.

 

Obviously if he had a proven resume like Belichik, Tomlin, etc it wouldn't matter but getting to one AFC Championship game and winning a division title in a weird covid year when the Pats were in transition means absolutely nothing quite frankly.

 

At the end of the day I'm happy that things have been different the last 4 years but it doesn't mean fans have to a blind loyalty to this regime for that.

 

This might be one of your worst takes ever...and there is a lot of competition from almost every other post you have ever written

[Malazan]

10 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

The man has a .600 winning % with the Bills, .698 winning % over the last three years, three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons and you think he should be on the hot seat after this year?

 

If you're a troll pretending to be a Bills fan then it makes sense. 

[jletha]

I think this just signals out bad our depth is. Any time we have an injury our performance stinks. Brown, Star, Edmunds, Knox. If 2 of them are out we have no way to compensate. But when healthy we can be best in the league.

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

This might be one of your worst takes ever...and there is a lot of competition from almost every other post you have ever written

 

Obviously you can choose to disagree but again, I think you'll be surprised by the tone of Bills mafia during the offseason if this team continues on it's current path given the lofty expectations bestowed up on this team heading into 2021.

 

And I'm also pretty sure that if the Pats win on MNF fans are going to finally tired of hearing the same platitudes over and over from McD/Allen/etc ...."We need to play better" ...."This isn't who we are"...etc.

[RoyBatty is alive]

20 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

I'm sure Bills mafia would be divided, but if the Bills don't make the playoffs period it's a very reasonable take because to go from an AFC championship game appearance to no playoffs the year has to be reflected somewhere whether on the GM, HC, etc.

 

 

McDermott will not be on the hot seat this year, period.  He has built up way too much goodwill.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, FilthyBeast said:

 

Obviously you can choose to disagree but again, I think you'll be surprised by the tone of Bills mafia during the offseason if this team continues on it's current path given the lofty expectations bestowed up on this team heading into 2021.

 

And I'm also pretty sure that if the Pats win on MNF fans are going to finally tired of hearing the same platitudes over and over from McD/Allen/etc ...."We need to play better" ...."This isn't who we are"...etc.

 

You are the one that predicted that not only would the Bills lose to the Jets, but that the Bills would get blown out - and that the Bills might not win another game this year. So, I am wondering how you can believe that, and also believe the Bills should beat the Patriots?

 

Which is it? 

[bigK14094]

Congrats on putting together the analysis...but, I could see this team is up and down without the data here.

[CSBill]

Yes, they've been inconsistent, maybe even borderline bi-polar disorder status, we all kind-of knew that.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

What’s hilarious to me is everyone getting upset at someone suggesting McDermott would be on the “hot seat” if they don’t win a playoff game or miss the playoffs. Hot seat is a completely subjective term so what are y’all even arguing about?

[BarleyNY]

I think our competition has had a lot to do with the variance.  We’ve played some real trash teams/QBs and some really good ones with good game plans.  Also with us really leaning into the focus on DL/pass rush on defense and the passing game on offense it makes sense that we’d see a higher variance due to certain match ups being either very favorable or very unfavorable. 

[Billsfan1972]

2 hours ago, teef said:

many didn't believe the bills would win one playoff game last year, and here we are.  you may not believe he can win a championship, but i bet the pegulas feel he can, which is what really matters.  i'm also not of the impression of specific windows to win a superbowl.  i get it, but as long as you have strong coaching and qb play, you're always in it.  

 

even if this year ends up being a total failure, i still don't think there will be questions about job security of anyone on this staff.  there would be major concerns, but i don't think the seat is hot at all.

13-3 and with home field and not win a playoff game......  No wonder you want to make the Bills underdogs Monday night......😜. 

 

Love excuses.

[teef]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

13-3 and with home field and not win a playoff game......  No wonder you want to make the Bills underdogs Monday night......😜. 

 

Love excuses.

yes.

 

also, when did i ever say i picked the bills to be the underdog.?  i think the bills will win, but they have to play mistake free football.  that being said, how could anyone be shocked if the pats won?  they're playing more consistent football.  

 

so...excuses?  excuses for what?  what you quoted me on has absolutely nothing to do with your comments to me.  you completely deserve how you're treated on this board.  

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, teef said:

yes.

 

also, when did i ever say i picked the bills to be the underdog.?  i think the bills will win, but they have to play mistake free football.  that being said, how could anyone be shocked if the pats won?  they're playing more consistent football.  

 

so...excuses?  excuses for what?  what you quoted me on has absolutely nothing to do with your comments to me.  you completely deserve how you're treated on this board.  

Hit a nerve?  Being sarcastic and frankly tired of the doom and gloom.

 

Maybe the Pats make mistakes.  Bills sorry are a much better team imo and home Monday Night and sick of excuses.

 

I think that if both teams are at their best the Bills win by 7, if NE is off Bills win by 20.  Sorry I'm a homer and tired of Bills fans fretting and the team playing scared/passive.....

[Buffalo ill]

What is this DVDA you speak of 🤔

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

For me, this is when you use statistics to look at each game to see what occurred. There is usually some concrete contributing factors to what causes the variance. Injuries, lack of performance by key players, breakdowns on plays at a critical point in the game...etc. 

The Bills can beat anyone in the NFL if both teams play their best game. Not many teams can say that. 

Consistently inconsistent…when we’re missing two starters on the offensive line our offense struggles. It ain’t rocket science haha we’re getting everyone back this week though if the pats still beat us up in the trenches then people can start eye roll emoji-ing the ‘we can beat anyone’ posts haha I think you got a premature eye roll reaction on this one 😂

[teef]

41 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Hit a nerve?  Being sarcastic and frankly tired of the doom and gloom.

 

Maybe the Pats make mistakes.  Bills sorry are a much better team imo and home Monday Night and sick of excuses.

 

I think that if both teams are at their best the Bills win by 7, if NE is off Bills win by 20.  Sorry I'm a homer and tired of Bills fans fretting and the team playing scared/passive.....

i feel like you're setting us up for another i'm right thread.  you've stated the bills are the better team and i agree.  if the bills win, it's an, "i'm right" because you predicted a win.  if the bills lose, it's an, "i'm right" because you said if they played scared, they'd lose.    

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, teef said:

i feel like you're setting us up for another i'm right thread.  you've stated the bills are the better team and i agree.  if the bills win, it's an, "i'm right" because you predicted a win.  if the bills lose, it's an, "i'm right" because you said if they played scared, they'd lose.    

Tell you what.....  I won't start a thread saying "So we beat NE on Monday night in a game we had to win.....  Does that prove anything?"

 

BTW I haven't started a single thread after a loss.....😜

 

However if the coaching sux Monday, I may need to chime in.....

Edited December 1, 2021 by Billsfan1972

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

This is the type of statistical data that's most concerning to me because if anything it supports the theory that the Bills will be one and done in the playoffs if they even get there.

 

Just mind boggling that they can come out and crush a poor team like the Jets one week, then lose to another like the Jags or Steelers the next but this is still part of a bigger picture and reflection of poor coaching IMO and why it's not too soon to put McDermott on the hot seat after this season is over.

 

I agree with the first statement. I strongly disagree with the latter statement. The team we have lost to having something in common - they have exposed our weakness up front. That is on personnel more than coaching. I think that still ultimately lands on McDermott, but I still think he is an excellent coach and there is no way I am putting him on any kind of hotseat. 

[teef]

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Tell you what.....  I won't start a thread saying "So we beat NE on Monday night in a game we had to win.....  Does that prove anything?"

 

BTW I haven't started a single thread after a loss.....😜

 

However if the coaching sux Monday, I may need to chime in.....

i think that's fair.