Picking up Edmunds Option a Rare Beane Mistake

[ctk232]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

1.  I literally said he's a top 10-12 MLB/ILB in the NFL........so don't start straw-manning me with the BS notion that I said he doesn't belong on the team.    You can't possibly have misinterpreted that.   And comparing the MLB in this defense to a guy who is, in theory, doing his job by just tying up blockers is a weak argument.   He's in position to make plays.   His predecessor was Pedestrian Preston Brown.......and he lead the entire NFL in tackles in this defense in 2017.   The bar is high.

 

2. I can tell you are regurgitating rather than using your own two eyes because you are talking about the hybrid nickel as if the Bills really use that.    They use Taron Johnson almost exclusively as their nickel coverage defender.   And you can't say that Edmunds/Milano have the same responsibilities and not acknowledge that Milano regularly makes game changing "splash" plays........TFL, sacks, forcing or collecting turnovers.........and not explain why Edmunds has not.

 

3. I am comparing him to Derrick Henry because they are both players with body types and traits that are usually associated with elite pass rushers.......the second most valuable players in the game behind the QB's.   Yet they have somehow ended up at devalued positions.    Henry lacks certain skills that you want in a great RB.........but he's taken the great physical skills that he has that other RB's don't.....and made himself into inarguably the most valuable RB in the NFL.   He changes games and has reached his potential.   Edmunds skills have not materialized into anything close to his potential.

 

As for the "run stuffer" question........what I am pointing out is that Edmunds lacks some of those RB/MLB traits.......the instincts, the elusiveness and leverage that are associated with guys like Devin White, Leonard and Wagner.    But Henry isn't extraordinary in those regards either.   He uses his speed and power to dominate the position.   For Edmunds though, lacking those "smaller player" traits has seemingly left him in no-man's land as a playmaking, game changing player.  

 

4. What player on our team can't play better?  That's a feeble attempt to avoid the point.......but I'd say a bunch of them.  Milano?  White? Johnson? There are a lot of players who are likely at their pinnacle and are in the right defense to be at their best.   Edmunds is supposedly in the right defense.   But he's not his best........not anywhere close to it........he can play A LOT better.   That is the distinction between he and most of the starters who have modest room for improvement.    And don't get me started on his "marked improvement".    Claiming that he was "markedly" better in 2020 than 2019 is absurd.    

 

 

1. Then what are you saying exactly? That because he isn't "living up to expectations" - whoever's they are - that he is....what? Worth keeping around/not worth keeping around? This is all in the context of his upcoming extension so are you saying he isn't doing enough to warrant an extension or simply just a "big" contract because that's an important distinction. If it's just about whether his play can improve, I'm not sure anyone here is saying that it can't - first and foremost from Tre himeslf. Like I said, if you compare him to what it took to get him versus his performance within the context of reality you can draw very different conclusions.

 

2. The Bills do use it. It's Taron Johnson, and sometimes Poyer being asked to fill in on run defense while Johnson covers to disguise pre-snap looks. Let's get that out the way. The idea that Milano and Edmunds don't have the same responsibilities ignores everything stated by players and coaches, but if you want to go that way here are the definitive numbers with consideration of injuries and an extra year for Milano:

If you wanna see TFLs and Sacks from your LBs, then sure Milano is your guy. If you want your LBs making solo tackles, covering TEs and zones, etc. and letting your, to use your words "second most important position behind QB" aka DE/DL pass rushers making the TFLs and Sacks like they're supposed to and are paid to do then you'll like this defense and Edmunds performance. The other point I tried communicating to you is that It is possible that the play calls focus on giving more opportunity for Milano to make these splash plays while Edmunds has others, but that's not based on their position as much as it is unique physical abilities. Maybe this wasn't clear, but yes what they do on any given play is different because common sense, but the breadth of responsibilities each are asked to execute are the same (i.e. cover, run stuff, blitz, etc.).

 

3. Okay...insofar as comparing body types, sure? But my point is you can't make an argument based on that analogy as they play different positions in reality. Did Henry make a case for himself as an RB in the NFL? Absolutely. Can you use that to detract from what Edmunds has not/has yet to accomplish? No. It's by definition a logical fallacy. I do see what you are getting at here though, but this again falls under Edmunds "not meeting your expectations" which is rather irrelevant in the context of his own circumstances, development, projection/ceiling, and especially whether he's worth extending and for how long/how much $. It's a non-starter to use Henry as the benchmark for a LB.

 

For what it's worth, I hear you on the run stuffing instincts - that has been his issue the first couple seasons. I would argue it's improved markedly, and especially in the first two games this season. I'll try and dig some highlights on the Steelers, but Edmunds did a phenomenal job handling the pre-snap shift/movements of Canada's offense and played very fast in shutting down Najee Harris.

 

4. It's not avoiding the point in the least, these are just your stated opinions. You call opinions that Edmunds can play better but is also playing well currently, bull####. Why? Because he doesn't make splash plays. Okay sure, that's one perspective but is still nothing more than opinion. We likely disagree on his ceiling versus where he is now, that much is obvious. But that's the job of the GM is to decide how much he is worth to keep around AND what is he contributing now and what that is worth. I argue he's doing more for this defense and team now than you are, and we both agree he can improve (disagreeing by how much apparently). 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, ctk232 said:

1. Then what are you saying exactly? That because he isn't "living up to expectations" - whoever's they are - that he is....what? Worth keeping around/not worth keeping around? This is all in the context of his upcoming extension so are you saying he isn't doing enough to warrant an extension or simply just a "big" contract because that's an important distinction. If it's just about whether his play can improve, I'm not sure anyone here is saying that it can't - first and foremost from Tre himeslf. Like I said, if you compare him to what it took to get him versus his performance within the context of reality you can draw very different conclusions.

 

2. The Bills do use it. It's Taron Johnson, and sometimes Poyer being asked to fill in on run defense while Johnson covers to disguise pre-snap looks. Let's get that out the way. The idea that Milano and Edmunds don't have the same responsibilities ignores everything stated by players and coaches, but if you want to go that way here are the definitive numbers with consideration of injuries and an extra year for Milano:

If you wanna see TFLs and Sacks from your LBs, then sure Milano is your guy. If you want your LBs making solo tackles, covering TEs and zones, etc. and letting your, to use your words "second most important position behind QB" aka DE/DL pass rushers making the TFLs and Sacks like they're supposed to and are paid to do then you'll like this defense and Edmunds performance. The other point I tried communicating to you is that It is possible that the play calls focus on giving more opportunity for Milano to make these splash plays while Edmunds has others, but that's not based on their position as much as it is unique physical abilities. Maybe this wasn't clear, but yes what they do on any given play is different because common sense, but the breadth of responsibilities each are asked to execute are the same (i.e. cover, run stuff, blitz, etc.).

 

3. Okay...insofar as comparing body types, sure? But my point is you can't make an argument based on that analogy as they play different positions in reality. Did Henry make a case for himself as an RB in the NFL? Absolutely. Can you use that to detract from what Edmunds has not/has yet to accomplish? No. It's by definition a logical fallacy. I do see what you are getting at here though, but this again falls under Edmunds "not meeting your expectations" which is rather irrelevant in the context of his own circumstances, development, projection/ceiling, and especially whether he's worth extending and for how long/how much $. It's a non-starter to use Henry as the benchmark for a LB.

 

For what it's worth, I hear you on the run stuffing instincts - that has been his issue the first couple seasons. I would argue it's improved markedly, and especially in the first two games this season. I'll try and dig some highlights on the Steelers, but Edmunds did a phenomenal job handling the pre-snap shift/movements of Canada's offense and played very fast in shutting down Najee Harris.

 

4. It's not avoiding the point in the least, these are just your stated opinions. You call opinions that Edmunds can play better but is also playing well currently, bull####. Why? Because he doesn't make splash plays. Okay sure, that's one perspective but is still nothing more than opinion. We likely disagree on his ceiling versus where he is now, that much is obvious. But that's the job of the GM is to decide how much he is worth to keep around AND what is he contributing now and what that is worth. I argue he's doing more for this defense and team now than you are, and we both agree he can improve (disagreeing by how much apparently). 

 

 

 

 

1. Obviously being 10th-12th best in the league when you have 1st team All Pro potential is underachieving.   That's more than just "Could he IMPROVE? Sure".   He SHOULD improve.  SHOULD.  A LOT.  I've said this before.......when the Bills offense was so anemic that it was challenging records for futility in 2018......McDermott would attempt to deflect criticism by saying nonsense like "would we like to score 50 points every game?  Sure."   There is a VAST area of ground between scoring a record amount of points per game and a record LOW of points per game.    That's just the kinda' sh*t someone says to deflect when they don't have a reasonable explanation.

 

And my expectations of him aren't unique.   There was much bluster about him and the decision to move him to MLB(from OLB at VA Tech) from within the organization.   He's Brian Urlacher on-the-hoof.......but instead of being an All Pro he's just a "good enough" player at a devalued position where there are very few above average players around the league.   They are like RB's........you can win SB's with guys like Anthony Hitchens so unless teams are blown away they aren't investing first round picks or pass rusher type contracts in that position.   When teams spend early or mid 1st round picks on a MLB they expect All Pro type play.   Not what Edmunds has produced.

 

2.  Taron Johnson is a 6' 190 # slot CB.   Jordan Poyer is a small-ish safety at 6' 200#.   That is not a "hybrid" of any sort.   They are good players.........very physical and good tacklers for their size.......but they are not a combination of a front 7 player and a CB.   The closest thing the Bills have to the 230# Shaq Thompson type that Carolina over-drafted to be that "hybrid" player for McDermott's defense is Siran Neal.   Shaq Thompson never really worked out as the impactful big nickel hybrid they imagined he would be.....it was a mostly failed experiment.   He's just a short LB now.  And Neal hasn't been able to cut it in coverage. 

 

And YES.........I want a guy like Edmunds making TFL's and sacks and forcing/recovering fumbles etc..   Everyone should.......much was invested in him to be all of that.  Milano does those things.  You intentionally trying to skew the numbers by using "games played in" as a basis to make it seem that there is less of a difference between the two isn't convincing to those who actually follow the Bills closely and realize that Tremaine Edmunds has played almost 400 more defensive snaps in his career than the oft-nicked Milano(in 1 less season!).

 

And Milano is more than just the man for splash plays........he also makes the OTHER plays that Edmunds does........he just gets less overall tackle opps because Edmunds plays the mike.  Edmunds has somehow turned more opportunities to affect the game into less big plays.  And I am not sure how you can imply that Edmunds is better in coverage than Milano.   Or that he's a better solo tackler.  Both assertions are ridiculous, IMO.    

 

4. See my take in point 1 about attempting to deflect criticism rather than acknowledging it.      

Edited September 23, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Some of you just have a terrible memory or maybe too selective.

 

I think it was the Rams last year when Edmunds stuffed a run behind the LOS to stop a 4th down. It was impressive. Or maybe it was SF. I would have to look back on it. I'm not saying he makes a ton of these plays, but the people saying he's made none are obviously exaggerating. 

 

 

So you kinda' remember one play from the last season?

 

A TFL........he's had just 4 TFL's in his last 21 regular season games so that's probably why you sorta' remember that one.

 

Here's some more dandies from his career stat log:

 

He has never recovered a fumble in his career.

 

He hasn't forced a fumble in 44 games.

 

Hasn't had an interception since 2019........when he had 1.

 

He has just 3 QB hit's in his last 23 games.  

 

Last season he blitzed 72 times and did not even record a single pressure. 

 

He hasn't made ZERO actual big plays.........but it's rather astounding how few he's made when playing almost 3,000 career defensive snaps.   

 

 

[LabattBlue]

48 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

So you kinda' remember one play from the last season?

 

A TFL........he's had just 4 TFL's in his last 21 regular season games so that's probably why you sorta' remember that one.

 

Here's some more dandies from his career stat log:

 

He has never recovered a fumble in his career.

 

He hasn't forced a fumble in 44 games.

 

Hasn't had an interception since 2019........when he had 1.

 

He has just 3 QB hit's in his last 23 games.  

 

Last season he blitzed 72 times and did not even record a single pressure. 

 

He hasn't made ZERO actual big plays.........but it's rather astounding how few he's made when playing almost 3,000 career defensive snaps.   

 

 

The bolded is tough to argue, even from his biggest fans. 😂

[without a drought]

And all this is only over picking up the 5th year option.

[97bills]

On 9/20/2021 at 12:29 AM, Paup 1995MVP said:

Some guys are just good football players, and some guys are not.  Edmunds does not have the right body type to play MLB.  He is just too long.  He can't get any leverage to make tackles.  On top of that he doesn't read plays quick enuf.  The difference between Milano and Edmunds is big.  One is a playmaker, and the other isn't.  With Klein or Dodson playing next to Milano, we don't lose much if anything w Edmunds out of the game.  

 

I hope the light goes on for him at some point real soon.  But I have my doubts.  But on a more positive note, you have to love the aggressive game plan the Bills came out with against the Fish today.  The Miami offense was totally unprepared for our blitzes w Taron and Hyde on the first series.  And it went on the entire game.  Coaching was top notch today, as well as the game plan.  Kudos to McDermott and company for turning it around.    

And what about white blitzes, they really never saw that on tape I think one in a blue moon his none that 

[DrPJax]

On 9/21/2021 at 8:52 AM, BarleyNY said:

Edmunds is the kind of player that can be debated endlessly by fans.  He is a high pick that makes splash plays, but he also makes too many mistakes and misses assignments too often.  Both sides have plenty of fuel at hand for their side.

 

This is his fourth season.  Despite his relatively young age discussions about potential and growth are no longer meaningful IMO.  The player he is now is who he is and it’s who he is going to be until his physical skills decline.  In that light it boils down to one thing only: his contract going forward.  If he expects the mega deal in line with his draft position then we have to let him go.  He is not worth that.  If he’s on board with a respectable contract that reflects who he is as a player then I’m good with keeping him.

 

The reality of that situation is that he’s really going to have to want to be here enough that he gives up a lot of money to do so.  I mean, did anyone see the deal that Joe Schobert got a little over a year ago?  Ridiculous.  Imagine what Edmunds will get in two years.  Some team will make the mistake of giving him a Mega deal based on the theoretical potential of him continuing to make splash plays while cleaning up his mistakes.  That’s how I see it plying out.  He plays out his fifth year option, gets a decent offer from the Bills, tests free agency and signs a huge contract elsewhere.  Bills get a 3rd round comp pick.  Of course I thought that’s how it would play out with Milano (who is a better LB than Edmunds), but he took less to stay.  So it can happen.  

He may chose to bet on his own perception of his talent and if he and his agent think the Bills offer is too low, I doubt he leaves any money on the table.  If I were him I would bet another team courts me with the idea of using me in a different position or way , like olb as I  believe he played at Virginia tech, and he may actually really thrive in a different role than Sean has him pegged in.  It’s funny how much Sean experiments along the OL and DL with rotation or changing positions of players but he has been steadfast on MLB for Edmunds and that’s about it.  My bet is you’re right about him wanting money ( pro bowl etc) , but I just don’t think he is irreplaceable and if Beane can’t fit him in where it makes sense, I would hope they look at his actual production and move on.  It’s obvious so far who the D suffers most without, Milano, and I think there are enough  fast , sideline to sideline LBs  coming out of the college game in early rounds.  Other teams are doing well ( Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Carolina, etc) drafting and again depending on the $, he might not be around unless he has a great year and the team get to the super bowl.   We need turnovers from the D , which was missing frequently last year.  We will be lucky to. Have the same success this year if we don’t produce turnovers ( good game against Miami, but Edmunds wasn’t responsible for those ), and his inability to create those is another thing to watch this year regarding his future. 

[GoBills808]

He played all over in college. Including MLB.

[Buffalo716]

22 minutes ago, DrPJax said:

He may chose to bet on his own perception of his talent and if he and his agent think the Bills offer is too low, I doubt he leaves any money on the table.  If I were him I would bet another team courts me with the idea of using me in a different position or way , like olb as I  believe he played at Virginia tech, and he may actually really thrive in a different role than Sean has him pegged in.  It’s funny how much Sean experiments along the OL and DL with rotation or changing positions of players but he has been steadfast on MLB for Edmunds and that’s about it.  My bet is you’re right about him wanting money ( pro bowl etc) , but I just don’t think he is irreplaceable and if Beane can’t fit him in where it makes sense, I would hope they look at his actual production and move on.  It’s obvious so far who the D suffers most without, Milano, and I think there are enough  fast , sideline to sideline LBs  coming out of the college game in early rounds.  Other teams are doing well ( Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Carolina, etc) drafting and again depending on the $, he might not be around unless he has a great year and the team get to the super bowl.   We need turnovers from the D , which was missing frequently last year.  We will be lucky to. Have the same success this year if we don’t produce turnovers ( good game against Miami, but Edmunds wasn’t responsible for those ), and his inability to create those is another thing to watch this year regarding his future. 

Here's the thing with McDermott  

 

He almost universally puts defensive players in their best spot to succeed... From Star players like Tre White... to Depth role players like Dean Marlow  

 

Jordan Phillips a bust in Miami turned into a double-digit sack guy because Sean McDermott put him in his best spot succeed...

 

That's his MO 

 

I'm not doubting that he can play outside linebacker... But McDermott almost never puts a square peg into a round hole defensively

 

McDermott must believe that his defensive scheme is built around Edmunds length in the middle 

 

His real effectiveness is in all the plays you don't see happen.. all the times he forces the quarterback to hold on to the ball or go somewhere else

[BarleyNY]

48 minutes ago, DrPJax said:

He may chose to bet on his own perception of his talent and if he and his agent think the Bills offer is too low, I doubt he leaves any money on the table.  If I were him I would bet another team courts me with the idea of using me in a different position or way , like olb as I  believe he played at Virginia tech, and he may actually really thrive in a different role than Sean has him pegged in.  It’s funny how much Sean experiments along the OL and DL with rotation or changing positions of players but he has been steadfast on MLB for Edmunds and that’s about it.  My bet is you’re right about him wanting money ( pro bowl etc) , but I just don’t think he is irreplaceable and if Beane can’t fit him in where it makes sense, I would hope they look at his actual production and move on.  It’s obvious so far who the D suffers most without, Milano, and I think there are enough  fast , sideline to sideline LBs  coming out of the college game in early rounds.  Other teams are doing well ( Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Carolina, etc) drafting and again depending on the $, he might not be around unless he has a great year and the team get to the super bowl.   We need turnovers from the D , which was missing frequently last year.  We will be lucky to. Have the same success this year if we don’t produce turnovers ( good game against Miami, but Edmunds wasn’t responsible for those ), and his inability to create those is another thing to watch this year regarding his future. 

That’s a good point about other teams using him as an OLB and pass rusher.  I agree that he’s likely miscast as a MLB.  Milano is certainly the better linebacker.

[Richard Noggin]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Here's the thing with McDermott  

 

He almost universally puts defensive players in their best spot to succeed... From Star players like Tre White... to Depth role players like Dean Marlow  

 

Jordan Phillips a bust in Miami turned into a double-digit sack guy because Sean McDermott put him in his best spot succeed...

 

That's his MO 

 

I'm not doubting that he can play outside linebacker... But McDermott almost never puts a square peg into a round hole defensively

 

McDermott must believe that his defensive scheme is built around Edmunds length in the middle 

 

His real effectiveness is in all the plays you don't see happen.. all the times he forces the quarterback to hold on to the ball or go somewhere else

I want to believe the bolded. It's the most logical explanation now in year four of the unquestioned (by the coaches) Edmunds MLB era. 

 

Problem is, it's REALLY difficult for me to definitively discern this as a fan. 

 

Analytics certainly don't capture his value as a passing game defender/deterrent. Not that stats can capture all the nuances of such a dynamic, interrelated sport.

 

So how do we KNOW Edmunds IS actually effective in this role? Like Agent Mulder, I want to believe.

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

I want to believe the bolded. It's the most logical explanation now in year four of the unquestioned (by the coaches) Edmunds MLB era. 

 

Problem is, it's REALLY difficult for me to definitively discern this as a fan. 

 

Analytics certainly don't capture his value as a passing game defender/deterrent. Not that stats can capture all the nuances of such a dynamic, interrelated sport.

 

So how do we KNOW Edmunds IS actually effective in this role? Like Agent Mulder, I want to believe.

We very rarely get hit up the seam because of the depth of Edmunds drops and his length

 

Look how much Josh targets the seams... We rarely get hit their because they can't throw over Tremaine but keep it in front of the Safeties... His length makes the trajectory near impossible

 

 

Edited September 24, 2021 by Buffalo716

[Richard Noggin]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

We very rarely get hit up the seam because of the depth of Edmunds drops and his length

 

Look how much Josh targets the seams... We rarely get hit their because they can't throw over Tremaine but keep it in front of the Safeties... His length makes the trajectory near impossible

 

 

There has to be metrics to support this assertion, right? Not that I question your acumen (you're savvier than most). But I've yet to see concrete evidence.

[DuckyBoys]

for all the hype and where he was drafted he's been invisible in the  majority of games played  Guess there is always hope it clicks given his physical stature but his time is running short.  My hope is McD and Beane dont stay in and double down based on their draft stock investment

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

We very rarely get hit up the seam because of the depth of Edmunds drops and his length

 

Look how much Josh targets the seams... We rarely get hit their because they can't throw over Tremaine but keep it in front of the Safeties... His length makes the trajectory near impossible

 

 

As a bonus we also don’t have to worry about the RB leak/flat/wheel at all when we’re in man

 

 

[Buffalo716]

41 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

There has to be metrics to support this assertion, right? Not that I question your acumen (you're savvier than most). But I've yet to see concrete evidence.

There's really not any advanced metric right now that I know of that analyzes success of taking away the seams

 

But if you just watched the Bills defense for the last 3 years.. how often do we get hit 15 yards down the seam? 

 

Very rarely.. and that's one of tremaine's responsibilities

Edited September 24, 2021 by Buffalo716

[BADOLBILZ]

24 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

There has to be metrics to support this assertion, right? Not that I question your acumen (you're savvier than most). But I've yet to see concrete evidence.

 

 

There aren't really metrics to support the "near impossibility" of attacking Edmunds in zone drops.

 

He took a step back last year when opposing QB's started attacking him more.   He's still too easily manipulated.   In college he was really just a see-ball get-ball LB and not instinctive or good at recognizing the broader scope of how plays are going to unfold.  It's not a mistake that instinctive backers make plays......their anticipation allows it.  But just as important Edmunds has not been a threat to make plays on the football if you throw at him and when that's the case then eventually QB's will take their chances.    That happened to the tune of a woeful 114 passer rating against and passing 4 TD's allowed by him in 2020.

 

I remember on Sunday the Dolphins worked him for a 13 yard gain to Waddle on a play where he and Gesicki both attacked the middle.    Brissett read Edmunds shoulders and that was that(setting up the 4th down where Jackson made the great shoe-string tackle).    So, still not impossible. 

 

Edmunds is the nail too often in the passing game and QB's are getting better at being the hammer.   It's pretty early in the season but he's been targeted 4 times and allowed 3 completions so far and his passer rating allowed is 106 (which would, of course,  be very bad as a season figure).

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

McDermott must believe that his defensive scheme is built around Edmunds length in the middle 

 

 

I think if they felt that Edmunds was the foundation that the entire defense was built around that he'd at least have been inked to a long term deal by now.

 

It's more likely that they think he's good enough for now while they hope that he improves his consistency and starts making more big plays.

 

And besides, if Milano is healthy they don't really have another regular position to move him to where it wouldn't be a veritable start from scratch(like edge) anyway.

 

Probably the only way we'd ever get to find out how Edmunds would perform as a one-side-of-field defender prior to his free agency would be if he missed a lot of time and his replacement played so well that they would not need to plug Edmunds back in the middle.

[NewEra]

9 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Some of you just have a terrible memory or maybe too selective.

 

I think it was the Rams last year when Edmunds stuffed a run behind the LOS to stop a 4th down. It was impressive. Or maybe it was SF. I would have to look back on it. I'm not saying he makes a ton of these plays, but the people saying he's made none are obviously exaggerating. 

That’s the one play everyone remembers because it’s 1 of 1 memorable plays that he’s made

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

We very rarely get hit up the seam because of the depth of Edmunds drops and his length

 

Look how much Josh targets the seams... We rarely get hit their because they can't throw over Tremaine but keep it in front of the Safeties... His length makes the trajectory near impossible

 

 

His length has a bigger affect on the opponents game than his play.  It’s really why he’s a starter in the nfl.  If he was Nick Bolton’s size, he’d be a special teamer based on his instincts as a mlb

[HomeskillitMoorman]

I’m somewhere in the middle here. I think picking up the option was absolutely the right call, but I agree he’s kind of a disappointment overall and not the player I had hoped he was going to be.

 

I wouldn’t bring him back on a long term deal but for basically 1 year and taking the chance he could make a leap this season, I was down for that. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There aren't really metrics to support the "near impossibility" of attacking Edmunds in zone drops.

 

He took a step back last year when opposing QB's started attacking him more.   He's still too easily manipulated.   In college he was really just a see-ball get-ball LB and not instinctive or good at recognizing the broader scope of how plays are going to unfold.  It's not a mistake that instinctive backers make plays......their anticipation allows it.  But just as important Edmunds has not been a threat to make plays on the football if you throw at him and when that's the case then eventually QB's will take their chances.    That happened to the tune of a woeful 114 passer rating against and passing 4 TD's allowed by him in 2020.

 

I remember on Sunday the Dolphins worked him for a 13 yard gain to Waddle on a play where he and Gesicki both attacked the middle.    Brissett read Edmunds shoulders and that was that(setting up the 4th down where Jackson made the great shoe-string tackle).    So, still not impossible. 

 

Edmunds is the nail too often in the passing game and QB's are getting better at being the hammer.   It's pretty early in the season but he's been targeted 4 times and allowed 3 completions so far and his passer rating allowed is 106 (which would, of course,  be very bad as a season figure).

 

 

So you know I am a fan of Edmunds and I agree, the bolded is true and the biggest leak in his game. It relates directly to the amount of space he's required to cover in his zone drops while being aware of receivers underneath or coming across his vision...part of the defense by design in nickle is to utilize his length in the MOF to add the extra DB BUT...he's still getting caught with his eyes in the backfield and savvy QBs  make him pay. Brady used to do it, Mahomes has been the one to take advantage of it recently. It's a very valid criticism.

 

However, in man coverage his responsibilities are typically the RB where Edmunds is very, very effective. I would guess that the poor passer rating in 2020 is due almost entirely to the zone looks where he was simply the closest defender to the receiver, because in man he is a very effective pass defender. If you watch when we are in a man look and the RB goes flat or wheel like here he basically wipes it out:

 

He does this consistently and at a high level. Being able to win 1v1 in pass coverage vs one of Brisset's reads there (you can see him look at the wheel route as the RB turns his head) allows them to bring a safety down into the box to cloud the crossers instead of leaving him high to help w the flat/wheel. That's one of the reasons we get the sack here.

 

Basically, Edmunds is a McDermott player through and through. He's cerebral and reliable to a fault: he's always in his Agap on run fits, always in his zone or man responsibilities in coverage. His athleticism is almost secondary to his reliability, strange as that may sound. Now is he perfect, clearly no. There is a lack of big play ability (some of which is due to his style which is admittedly conservative due to scheme, some would wrongly label it a lack of physicality), being too easily manipulated in zone as stated, and sometimes he will make a mistake or take a wrong angle but you'd be hard pressed to find an LB who doesn't. He is a great scheme fit MLB for this defense.

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I think if they felt that Edmunds was the foundation that the entire defense was built around that he'd at least have been inked to a long term deal by now.

 

 

This is a terrible point and you should be better than this.

 

This was the first off season they could resign him and everyone knew Josh was the first guy they had to sign - which got done near the end of training camp.

 

The only facts we have in regards to how they feel about him and a long term deal is the fact they picked up the 5th year option despite the fact the due to 2 ProBowls (whether anyone wants to count them or not - for his contract they absolutely counted) causing his option to be higher than other at the position.

 

Other than picking up the option - none of us know what the Bills and Edmunds agents have discussed for long term deals.  We don’t know which other LBs Edmunds agents wanted signed first to set value, we don’t know if the Bills offered him a long term contract and they declined because of how the cap will play out with the new TV deal.  None of us knows if they mutually decided to wait until this next off season because of the salary cap or maybe talked about other options.  

 

To say that he isn’t the foundation because in the 4 months they have been allowed to sign him - they haven’t yet, is absolutely wrong - especially with his draft classmate having to get signed 1st.  If he plays out the rest of the contract and they don’t try to re-sign him - then this becomes a legitimate statement, but until then we can only judge his worth on the fact that the Bills did pick up the very expensive 5th year option and Beane has said after Josh was done they would look at his contract.  
 

 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

On the manipulation in zone thing... it is helped by the defense getting the offense into 2nd and 3rd and longs. Last year we lost so consistently on 1st down we were constantly vulnerable to play action where teams found it easier to get Edmunds to take the bait. In 2019 we were a better 1st down defense and so far this year we have been too and to an extent it simplifies the things Edmunds has to think about it in those zone coverages. 

 

I think when it comes to 2020 both of the following statements are true:

 

- Edmunds' play took a step back; and

- there were a number of aspects to that aside from just him himself (poor Dline play, bad 1st down D as a whole, injury). 

[Coach Tuesday]

10 hours ago, 97bills said:

And what about white blitzes, they really never saw that on tape I think one in a blue moon his none that 

[Putin]

On 9/20/2021 at 4:39 AM, Brennan Huff said:

Edmunds is a very polarizing figure on these boards. He’s made the Pro Bowl 2 out his 3 years in the league but yet a lot of you say he’s terrible and want to run him out of town. I don’t get it. I hope we do offer him a contract 

I agree with you !

I just think people expect more from him as far as impact or even  being a difference maker ,  and also because ( IMO ) they are looking at Milano who was a 5th round pick and so far has been the better LB ..

[34-78-83]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So you know I am a fan of Edmunds and I agree, the bolded is true and the biggest leak in his game. It relates directly to the amount of space he's required to cover in his zone drops while being aware of receivers underneath or coming across his vision...part of the defense by design in nickle is to utilize his length in the MOF to add the extra DB BUT...he's still getting caught with his eyes in the backfield and savvy QBs  make him pay. Brady used to do it, Mahomes has been the one to take advantage of it recently. It's a very valid criticism.

 

However, in man coverage his responsibilities are typically the RB where Edmunds is very, very effective. I would guess that the poor passer rating in 2020 is due almost entirely to the zone looks where he was simply the closest defender to the receiver, because in man he is a very effective pass defender. If you watch when we are in a man look and the RB goes flat or wheel like here he basically wipes it out:

 

He does this consistently and at a high level. Being able to win 1v1 in pass coverage vs one of Brisset's reads there (you can see him look at the wheel route as the RB turns his head) allows them to bring a safety down into the box to cloud the crossers instead of leaving him high to help w the flat/wheel. That's one of the reasons we get the sack here.

 

Basically, Edmunds is a McDermott player through and through. He's cerebral and reliable to a fault: he's always in his Agap on run fits, always in his zone or man responsibilities in coverage. His athleticism is almost secondary to his reliability, strange as that may sound. Now is he perfect, clearly no. There is a lack of big play ability (some of which is due to his style which is admittedly conservative due to scheme, some would wrongly label it a lack of physicality), being too easily manipulated in zone as stated, and sometimes he will make a mistake or take a wrong angle but you'd be hard pressed to find an LB who doesn't. He is a great scheme fit MLB for this defense.

this is a good point you make. I was thinking about the "rating against" stat and the first thing I thought of is that more than half the time we are in zone so how is this stat actually being measured? Lots of assumptions like typical analytic based stats can contain...However, to see another contract here in Buffalo, the dude IS going to have to make some impact plays to go with his scheme fit this year...

[JaCrispy]

I’m not sure the difference in talent between Edmunds and his backup would match the difference in pay should the bills decide to extend him...

 

[Buffalo Junction]

25 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This is really the point…. There is no way the Bills can justify a Leonard type extension with his current play. 

I agree with that. The question though becomes whether or not they can bring him back for a more modest contract. I wouldn’t scoff if Beane managed to resign Edmunds for something like a 4 year $55M contract, or maybe a bit higher with some “outs” in it. It’ll be interesting to see how that negotiation plays out. If the kid could reliably tip 1-3 passes a game we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation. Just getting his rookie season turnovers reliably would start making him look like a better resigning. It’s just odd that he’s gotten worse at making splash plays every year of his career. I can’t recall ever seeing that before. 

[JaCrispy]

The Bills should take the temperature of the trade market...if they can get a bottom 1st rounder or two 2nd rounders, I would take it and run...

[LabattBlue]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Eh. I’d rather they just let him walk altogether and use that money for an interior offensive lineman, pass rusher, CB, or another offensive playmaker…. But McD seems to love him so I wouldn’t be surprised if they resign him even if it is a slight overpay…. The allocation of money and draft picks seems to be heavily defensive sided(outside of Josh’s contract). Would really like to seen them invest more offensively.

I think next year you will see picks in the first three rounds used on interior OL, and DB’s. 

[LeGOATski]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

That’s the one play everyone remembers because it’s 1 of 1 memorable plays that he’s made

There's just so much hyperbole. It's the one everyone should remember, but they still claim they don't and that Edmunds has made zero plays. 🙄 I'm sure you loved that play against Miami where Edmunds beat 2 blockers to get to the RB behind the LOS. Do you even remember it? It was only 5 days ago.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So you know I am a fan of Edmunds and I agree, the bolded is true and the biggest leak in his game. It relates directly to the amount of space he's required to cover in his zone drops while being aware of receivers underneath or coming across his vision...part of the defense by design in nickle is to utilize his length in the MOF to add the extra DB BUT...he's still getting caught with his eyes in the backfield and savvy QBs  make him pay. Brady used to do it, Mahomes has been the one to take advantage of it recently. It's a very valid criticism.

 

However, in man coverage his responsibilities are typically the RB where Edmunds is very, very effective. I would guess that the poor passer rating in 2020 is due almost entirely to the zone looks where he was simply the closest defender to the receiver, because in man he is a very effective pass defender. If you watch when we are in a man look and the RB goes flat or wheel like here he basically wipes it out:

 

He does this consistently and at a high level. Being able to win 1v1 in pass coverage vs one of Brisset's reads there (you can see him look at the wheel route as the RB turns his head) allows them to bring a safety down into the box to cloud the crossers instead of leaving him high to help w the flat/wheel. That's one of the reasons we get the sack here.

 

Basically, Edmunds is a McDermott player through and through. He's cerebral and reliable to a fault: he's always in his Agap on run fits, always in his zone or man responsibilities in coverage. His athleticism is almost secondary to his reliability, strange as that may sound. Now is he perfect, clearly no. There is a lack of big play ability (some of which is due to his style which is admittedly conservative due to scheme, some would wrongly label it a lack of physicality), being too easily manipulated in zone as stated, and sometimes he will make a mistake or take a wrong angle but you'd be hard pressed to find an LB who doesn't. He is a great scheme fit MLB for this defense.

First and foremost, the bolded part is absolutely not correct.  One of Edmunds most glaring problems is that he often leaves his gap responsibility when it looks like the play is away from it.   That leaves the gap wide open for cut backs.  Misdirection and cut back runners are huge problems for him.  Where he excels is scraping sideline to sideline.  As long as he can avoid his blocker he’s great at that.

 

As for his pass responsibilities, he is up and down there too.  Obviously he’s got that sideline to sideline speed to keep up with a RB, but that’s not exactly that difficult of a job.  The tough job his has is in underneath zone and he’s been a mixed bag there.

 

He has been too inconsistent in both phases of the game to warrant the contract he is in line for here.

[NewEra]

41 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

There's just so much hyperbole. It's the one everyone should remember, but they still claim they don't and that Edmunds has made zero plays. 🙄 I'm sure you loved that play against Miami where Edmunds beat 2 blockers to get to the RB behind the LOS. Do you even remember it? It was only 5 days ago.

I remember it.  MnF vs SF. I don’t say he hasn’t made any big play.  Only that he’s made one……and I can’t remember any others.  The thing I remember most about the 4th and 1 stop on mnf……..being so happy that Edmunds made a play like that.  Not to mention shocked.  
 

I like the kid…..but let’s be real, based on everything we’ve seen from him, he’s not worth more than 11M a year…..if he’s even worth that.  Even his biggest supporters would agree that he’s not worth 13M per and he’s gtd to make more than that on the open market.  If he doesn’t improve, we should look for a new option……an option that won’t be extremely overpaid 

[Coach Tuesday]

Edmunds is EXACTLY the kind of player the Patriots would have traded away for premium picks during the Brady years - high potential but too expensive and too easy to replace.

 

I don't know that Beane will have the stones to trade Edmunds to some desperate franchise like the Giants or Cardinals for a 1st but that would be highly preferable to paying a big money extension for a player who too rarely makes a difference.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

There's just so much hyperbole. It's the one everyone should remember, but they still claim they don't and that Edmunds has made zero plays. 🙄 I'm sure you loved that play against Miami where Edmunds beat 2 blockers to get to the RB behind the LOS. Do you even remember it? It was only 5 days ago.

 

 

He has 0 TFL this season.........so would saying he made a tackle behind the LOS qualify as hyperbole?   

 

Yes, yes it would.

 

Like I said........people want to characterize solid plays as game changing or "splash" plays.   They are not.   

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

First and foremost, the bolded part is absolutely not correct.  One of Edmunds most glaring problems is that he often leaves his gap responsibility when it looks like the play is away from it.   That leaves the gap wide open for cut backs.  Misdirection and cut back runners are huge problems for him.  Where he excels is scraping sideline to sideline.  As long as he can avoid his blocker he’s great at that.

 

As for his pass responsibilities, he is up and down there too.  Obviously he’s got that sideline to sideline speed to keep up with a RB, but that’s not exactly that difficult of a job.  The tough job his has is in underneath zone and he’s been a mixed bag there.

 

He has been too inconsistent in both phases of the game to warrant the contract he is in line for here.

It is correct, and you won't find many examples to support your theory outside a few times last season he was injured and having to deal with a center or guard downfield.

 

Do you really believe McDermott's defense relies on an inconsistent, up and down MLB and that he hasn't recognized the deficiency after four years? And by some miracle they're still performing at a high level? Don't overthink it.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So you know I am a fan of Edmunds and I agree, the bolded is true and the biggest leak in his game. It relates directly to the amount of space he's required to cover in his zone drops while being aware of receivers underneath or coming across his vision...part of the defense by design in nickle is to utilize his length in the MOF to add the extra DB BUT...he's still getting caught with his eyes in the backfield and savvy QBs  make him pay. Brady used to do it, Mahomes has been the one to take advantage of it recently. It's a very valid criticism.

 

However, in man coverage his responsibilities are typically the RB where Edmunds is very, very effective. I would guess that the poor passer rating in 2020 is due almost entirely to the zone looks where he was simply the closest defender to the receiver, because in man he is a very effective pass defender. If you watch when we are in a man look and the RB goes flat or wheel like here he basically wipes it out:

 

He does this consistently and at a high level. Being able to win 1v1 in pass coverage vs one of Brisset's reads there (you can see him look at the wheel route as the RB turns his head) allows them to bring a safety down into the box to cloud the crossers instead of leaving him high to help w the flat/wheel. That's one of the reasons we get the sack here.

 

Basically, Edmunds is a McDermott player through and through. He's cerebral and reliable to a fault: he's always in his Agap on run fits, always in his zone or man responsibilities in coverage. His athleticism is almost secondary to his reliability, strange as that may sound. Now is he perfect, clearly no. There is a lack of big play ability (some of which is due to his style which is admittedly conservative due to scheme, some would wrongly label it a lack of physicality), being too easily manipulated in zone as stated, and sometimes he will make a mistake or take a wrong angle but you'd be hard pressed to find an LB who doesn't. He is a great scheme fit MLB for this defense.

 

 

 

Edmunds definitely does some good things IN THIS SYSTEM.......that's why he's a top 10-12 type MLB in the NFL.

 

He's a lot like Tyrod Taylor at QB though...........Tyrod was elite at not turning the football over........before he got benched in 2016 he was about to QB a team to the fewest turnovers ever in a SB era season.    And like Edmunds he made a Pro Bowl,  deservedly,  in a year where only 2 of the top 8 QB's were in the AFC.

 

The thing was.........we all knew Taylor wasn't actually a great QB and that he left a ton of plays on the field.    You couldn't justify paying him top of the market, which was $30M per year.   But $15M on a bridge deal wasn't out of the question because he had lead some good offensive teams.    

 

The issue with Edmunds is that he's not going to be signed for half of what Darius Leonard signed for.    He probably doesn't even deserve Joe Schobert money, to be honest.   And most people on here have no idea who that is.   

[BarleyNY]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It is correct, and you won't find many examples to support your theory outside a few times last season he was injured and having to deal with a center or guard downfield.

 

Do you really believe McDermott's defense relies on an inconsistent, up and down MLB and that he hasn't recognized the deficiency after four years? And by some miracle they're still performing at a high level? Don't overthink it.

Well it’s only been happening the entire time he’s been here.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It is correct, and you won't find many examples to support your theory outside a few times last season he was injured and having to deal with a center or guard downfield.

 

Do you really believe McDermott's defense relies on an inconsistent, up and down MLB and that he hasn't recognized the deficiency after four years? And by some miracle they're still performing at a high level? Don't overthink it.

And we’re paying Cody Ford, Daryl Williams and Jon Feliciano to protect Josh Allen.  Doesn’t mean that paying them was a good decision.  It just happened to be their decision. 
 

Eager to know how much you would be ok paying Edmunds per year and guaranteed if he plays similarly to how he played last season?  What’s he worth to you?