Early look at returns from first round Edge Rusher selections

[IgotBILLStopay]

Kwity Paye, Jaelan Phillips, Payton Turner, Greg Rousseau, Osage Oweh and Joe Tryon we’re the six first round Edge Rushers taken.

#18 Jaelan Phillips started promisingly but then has had a very poor camp overall due to injury. I felt him missing his medical due to ‘COVID’ in April itself was a red flag. Didn’t play preseason game 1.

#21 Keith Paye started slow in TC, then reports said he improved a lot but is now out with an ankle injury (which maybe minor). Didn’t play week 1 preseason.

#28 Payton Turner was very raw when camp started but had started looking better as camp progressed. Was deliberately held out of preseason game 1 (which tells me he is doing really well).

#30 Greg Rousseau came out of the gate strong. Has not had a single negative report and several positive minicamp and TC reports. Only one (of these six) to register a sack in preseason week 1 (that too against Penei Sewell - top lineman from 2021 draft)

#31 Odafe Oweh looked overwhelmed in week 1of TC - but was the ‘star’ of week 2. DC Martindale has been singing his praises the past week. Played decently preseason week 1 but went sackless - which is important since he had notoriety as a first rounder who had zero sacks in an entire (shortened) college season.

#32 Joe Tryon like Rousseau sat out 2020. He missed rookie minicamp due to a minor knee procedure - but has been turning heads every day in camp. He shda maybe had a sack in preseason game 1 but was called for helmet to helmet. Arians raving about him. 
 

Bottomline Rankings post preseason game 1:

 

1. Rousseau

2. Tryon

3. Turner

4. Oweh

5. Paye

6. Phillips

 

Beane can feel good about what he did last April.

 

Update after one more week of Training Camp and Preseason Game 2

 

#18 Jaelan Phillips returned to the field but is being eased in slowly. He collected a few reps late in preseason game 2 vs. the Falcons - but was quite ineffective in stopping the run. Atlanta had two long drives for TDs late. 

#21 Keith Paye made the most noise this week. After returning from his ankle injury, he had three! Sacks in one day in TC last week. He was also credited with a sack of Kirk Cousins in preseason game 2 - he blew past T Rashod Hill, who is a 2016 UDFA. I scouted Kwity extensively before the draft and felt he was very similar to (and no better than) Shaq Lawson since he basically had a bull rush. The real news is that the Colts see more in him. He has completely changed his stance and is acting more as a speed rusher than a power rusher. That is what the Bills have been trying to do with AJ Epenesa as well. 

#28 Payton Turner didn’t play at all this week ( has an undisclosed injury) and won’t suit up tomorrow in preseason game 2 vs. Jags.

#30 Greg Rousseau - 2nd sack in as many games. I’d loved it when the announcers compared him to Mario Williams. And I see the comp! He primarily went against Lachavious Simmons who is a 7th rounder and dominated him on every single snap. The tight end Horsted also couldn’t block him. 

#31 Odafe Oweh Played somewhat ok preseason week 2 as well. Last week Went against Ethan Greenidge who is a 2019 UDFA but went sackless. That trend continued against the Panthers. In 18 snaps, he recorded just one pressure. He went against a “returning from injury” Ronnie Stanley in practice and the latter easily handled him. The big news is that the ravens are using him as a gunner on special teams (a little like we are using Bam). That tells me his upside at DE seems limited.

#32 Joe Tryon actually recorded a sack - but unlike week one, this sack was a freak event - Dillon Raduz (2021 2nd rounder) had actually pushed Tryon away and he barely touched Matt Barkley, who actually appeared to have gotten rid of the ball. But Tryon was awarded the sack - so it was just the opposite of week one where he was denied a sack by the zebras. in TC, Tryon is yet to go against the first team offense - so yet to see how he does against top flight competition.

 

Updated Rankings post preseason game 2:

 

1. Rousseau

2. Paye

3. Tryon

4. Oweh

5. Turner

6. Phillips

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by IgotBILLStopay

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Come on 

[Wayne Cubed]

7 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Beane can feel good about what he did last April.

 

 

Er, what?! Way, way too early for that.

[IgotBILLStopay]

Just now, Wayne Cubed said:

Er, what?! Way, way too early for that.

 but the first returns have the most incremental info, no? Then diminishing returns set in. Ofc there will be exceptions, but that doesn’t take away from the importance of early takeaways.

[Boxcar]

3 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

 

Er, what?! Way, way too early for that.

Wasn't way, way too early for people to whine about the pick as soon as it happened.

[billybrew1]

Yes, we win the whole draft!

 

Go Bills!

[Wayne Cubed]

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

 but the first returns have the most incremental info, no? Then diminishing returns set in. Ofc there will be exceptions, but that doesn’t take away from the importance of early takeaways.

 

It's preseason, game 1. I don't think you can know much right now and I certainly don't think Beane is claiming victory based on 1 game. Did Rousseau look good in limited action? Sure, and then teams/players will counter his strengths and then the regular season starts. Let's also not forget, Beane had no shot at drafting some of those other players so how exactly does he win by getting the player that was available to him at the time he drafted him?

 

5 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Wasn't way, way too early for people to whine about the pick as soon as it happened.

 

Yea, there is overreactions on both sides but the consensus take is probably somewhere in the middle.

[LabattBlue]

3 words....just stop already

[US Egg]

"Early look at returns from first round Edge Rusher selections"

 

.....too early to tell.

[LEBills]

I’m pretty sure Oweh had a sack on Winston yesterday

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

20 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

 

Er, what?! Way, way too early for that.

 

He can feel good this week. 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I’m pretty sure Oweh had a sack on Winston yesterday

 

He didn't.

[RobbRiddick]

Yeah it's way too early to know anything but I still love reading stuff like this. Good to see how the other linemen who went in the first round are shaping up so far - something else to watch for as the season progresses 

Edited August 15, 2021 by RobbRiddick

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

 but the first returns have the most incremental info, no? Then diminishing returns set in. Ofc there will be exceptions, but that doesn’t take away from the importance of early takeaways.

 

You think the law of diminishing returns in terms of new info applies from the end of pre-season game 1?

 

Yea. It doesn't. The end of season 1, maybe.

[TPS]

I wonder how the 2018 QB class were ranked after their first preseason games....?

Edited August 15, 2021 by TPS

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, TPS said:

I wonder how the 2018 QB class were ranked after their first preseason games....?

 

I dunno but it was diminishing returns after that so I hear...

[IgotBILLStopay]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

You think the law of diminishing returns in terms of new info applies from the end of pre-season game 1?

 

Yea. It doesn't. The end of season 1, maybe.

Oh my - do you really want to argue that the very first action / availability against nfl schemes and competition will not be the most informative on average?

 

And info includes minicamp and TC reports besides preseason game 1 as well.

 

If you wish to argue that sample is too small, that Is a variance (second moment) issue, not an average (first moment) issue. That has nothing to do with diminishing returns.

 

sry gunner I respect your player assessments - but you really can’t dispute the Econ / stats issue, no?

[GunnerBill]

Just to add to the thread there were 4 edge guys I was willing to consider at #30 if on the board. Paye, Phillips, Rousseau and Joseph Ossai who I clearly liked more than the league because he went to Cincy in round 3. Well I just watched their game back and he popped. Playing mainly as a situational rusher on 2nd and 3rd and longs he had an early sack on Brady working against Tristan Wirfs last year's first rounder at right tackle. Unfortunately he left the game with a hand injury in the 2nd half but hopefully for him be can be healthy week 1 because he was very impressive. 

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Oh my - do you really want to argue that the very first action / availability against nfl schemes and competition will not be the most informative on average?

 

And info includes minicamp and TC reports besides preseason game 1 as well.

 

If you wish to argue that sample is too small, that Is a variance (second moment) issue, not an average (first moment) issue. That has nothing to do with diminishing returns.

 

sry gunner I respect your player assessments - but you really can’t dispute the Econ / stats issue, no?

 

Yes I do want to argue the sample size is way too small. 

[H2o]

This should be merged with the "overreaction" thread. 

[Process]

We are ranking rookies after one preseason game?😂

[RobbRiddick]

Just been reading about Joseph Ossai. He was one of the few players I 'scouted' before the draft and I said he was a guy I wanted us to draft. He looked real good against the Bucs apparently. Even sacked Brady, which makes me like him even more 

[IgotBILLStopay]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes I do want to argue the sample size is way too small. 

That is what I thought.

 

Good call on Ossai.

[Bangarang]

This is embarrassing 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, RobbRiddick said:

Just been reading about Joseph Ossai. He was one of the few players I 'scouted' before the draft and I said he was a guy I wanted us to draft. He looked real good against the Bucs apparently. Even sacked Brady, which makes me like him even more 

 

Just posted above. He was very impressive. The thing with Ossai for me was unlike Paye, Phillips or Rousseau I felt he was a situational pass rusher only year 1 which is how the Benglas used him in this game. Don't have him in early against the run but 2nd or 3rd and long let him pin his ears back and get after it. Hope his hand is okay.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

A better place for this would have been in the Overreaction Saturday thread!

 

I highly doubt anyone on this board follows every team and has as much access to information at the same level as they do to the Bills, so very easy to have a very large bias for good or bad in regards to anything Bills related.

[IgotBILLStopay]

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

A better place for this would have been in the Overreaction Saturday thread!

 

I highly doubt anyone on this board follows every team and has as much access to information at the same level as they do to the Bills, so very easy to have a very large bias for good or bad in regards to anything Bills related.

But I have been following the six first rounders all thru minicamp and TC. I know most fans will only be following their team. That is why I thought the post would offer something different. I will keep updating as more info is available.

 

that said I do admit that a bit of Bills bias may creep into the rankings. Not gonna apologize for that tho 😀

[BillsFan130]

The thread is good- But just a big overreaction after game 1 of preseason with all due respect.

 

Would be cool to have it updated after each week, including all regular season games.

 

If you have the time for that, it would be a great informative thread that we can check week in and week out to see how the rookies are doing.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

Of course it’s very early, but you have to admit as a Bills fan you had a smile on your face watching Rousseau the other night.

[Rico]

7 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

But I have been following the six first rounders all thru minicamp and TC. I know most fans will only be following their team. That is why I thought the post would offer something different. I will keep updating as more info is available.

 

that said I do admit that a bit of Bills bias may creep into the rankings. Not gonna apologize for that tho 😀

Thanks for the intel on the 6 players, & pay no attention to the critic's corner.

[HOUSE]

Can we do Tight Ends next?

[todzilla]

Man, you guys are harsh, sure it’s early, but that’s in the title!  I enjoyed the info on the other guys, that’s research I don’t want to do. I was skeptical on Rousseau but he’s looking good so far. 

[Brand J]

Does anyone else get Shaq Lawson vibes from Boogie Basham?

[Malazan]

Are these rankings going to be updated daily? Hourly? 

Edited August 15, 2021 by jeremy2020

[Doc]

4 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

Are these rankings going to be updated daily? Hourly? 

 

I'm thinking...gamely.

[Ya Digg?]

14 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Does anyone else get Shaq Lawson vibes from Boogie Basham?

Not sure if this was meant to be a comment for or against Basham, but that would be great if he played like Lawson-set the edge against the run, can situationally put pressure on the QB (I doubt he will be the target of very many double teams), high energy/motor guy for the next couple of years-sign me up for that

[TPS]

1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Oh my - do you really want to argue that the very first action / availability against nfl schemes and competition will not be the most informative on average?

 

And info includes minicamp and TC reports besides preseason game 1 as well.

 

If you wish to argue that sample is too small, that Is a variance (second moment) issue, not an average (first moment) issue. That has nothing to do with diminishing returns.

 

sry gunner I respect your player assessments - but you really can’t dispute the Econ / stats issue, no?

What exactly are you averaging?   How can you state he is disputing econ/stats when you don't specify what your ranking is based on?  You mention the info includes minicamp and TC reports--what are you averaging there? 

 

What you're actually doing is providing a somewhat subjective evaluation (mainly) based on what you've heard from camps, and (apparently) the number of sacks based on one preseason game, but only half of those on the list have actually played a game.  So, yes, he can dispute the stats issue because you don't provide any. 

 

[Niagara Dude]

2 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Kwity Paye, Jaelan Phillips, Payton Turner, Greg Rousseau, Osage Oweh and Joe Tryon we’re the six first round Edge Rushers taken.

#18 Jaelan Phillips started promisingly but then has had a very poor camp overall due to injury. I felt him missing his medical due to ‘COVID’ in April itself was a red flag. Didn’t play preseason game 1.

#21 Keith Paye started slow in TC, then reports said he improved a lot but is now out with an ankle injury (which maybe minor). Didn’t play week 1 preseason.

#28 Payton Turner was very raw when camp started but had started looking better as camp progressed. Was deliberately held out of preseason game 1 (which tells me he is doing really well).

#30 Greg Rousseau came out of the gate strong. Has not had a single negative report and several positive minicamp and TC reports. Only one (of these six) to register a sack in preseason week 1 (that too against Penei Sewell - top lineman from 2021 draft)

#31 Odafe Oweh looked overwhelmed in week 1of TC - but was the ‘star’ of week 2. DC Martindale has been singing his praises the past week. Played decently preseason week 1 but went sackless - which is important since he had notoriety as a first rounder who had zero sacks in an entire (shortened) college season.

#32 Joe Tryon like Rousseau sat out 2020. He missed rookie minicamp due to a minor knee procedure - but has been turning heads every day in camp. He shda maybe had a sack in preseason game 1 but was called for helmet to helmet. Arians raving about him. 
 

Bottomline Rankings post preseason game 1:

 

1. Rousseau

2. Tryon

3. Turner

4. Oweh

5. Paye

6. Phillips

 

Beane can feel good about what he did last April.

Right that sack where the QB looked more like he fell on his own tells us this was a great pick,  i will be happy to be a more accurate assessment after he has played at least 4 regular season games and bullets are flying for real.  You guys seem to believe the more great things you post and say the better the team will be

 

 

Plenty of questions on this defense and pass rush is by far the biggest one

[Doc]

“The quarterback fell on his own”?  LOL. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

9 minutes ago, TPS said:

What exactly are you averaging?   How can you state he is disputing econ/stats when you don't specify what your ranking is based on?  You mention the info includes minicamp and TC reports--what are you averaging there? 

 

What you're actually doing is providing a somewhat subjective evaluation (mainly) based on what you've heard from camps, and (apparently) the number of sacks based on one preseason game, but only half of those on the list have actually played a game.  So, yes, he can dispute the stats issue because you don't provide any. 

 

I think this is a serious question - so I will attempt to clarify.

 

I am averaging information from various sources regarding performance / potential of these rookies. I have followed the TC reports (and minicamp info) of these six on a daily basis - but just summarized them in a few lines each for the post. I have also watched every preseason snap for those that played. 
 

you are right that three of the rookies did not play in the preseason. But a. I have also been following them through TC and, b. availability is the first ability and two of them could not suit up due to injury, which is a knock on them. We all remember what happened with Shaq Lawson as a rookie, no? Turner was held out deliberately despite an impressive second week of TC ( he had two sacks in just one Saints practice against Hil / Winston) and my ranking reflects that - he is not being penalized for not playing.
 

Diminishing returns is an economic concept and Gunner was disputing it by talking about sample size which is a stats issue and can’t speak to the validity of diminishing returns of information. I don’t think there is any dispute at all on the small sample size.  I already acknowledged the sample size issue in the title.
 

The ranking is no doubt a subjective opinion, can it be anything else at this point?

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, Ya Digg? said:

Not sure if this was meant to be a comment for or against Basham, but that would be great if he played like Lawson-set the edge against the run, can situationally put pressure on the QB (I doubt he will be the target of very many double teams), high energy/motor guy for the next couple of years-sign me up for that

Exactly. Getting that level of production would be decent value for a late second round pick. I doubt anyone would have complained much about Lawson if he was picked where Basham was.