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Playoff Matchup Probability


cv05

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12 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Wish the league wld Flex us vs Miami to late game in case Pitt loses we would clinch 2 seed before kickoff assuming we beat Pats tmrw.


 

Which is exactly why they don’t want to flex the game.

 

They want as many games with playoff impact on at the same time- therefore each team plays to win and you give the least advantage possible.

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14 hours ago, The Red King said:

After the early games the AFC wild card situation is an absolute mess with four teams tied at 10-5.  It's not only a toss up as to who makes it in, but also where.  Week 17 just got a lot more fun to watch.

The NFL couldn't have asked for anything better than this week 17 slate.

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Two seed means two possible home games, in Buffalo, in January. 

McBeane need to keep the pedal to the metal, perhaps more snaps for the reserves, but eyes on the prize.

And the Chiefs showed yesterday they are not almighty against a very pedestrian Falcon's team. 

Don't want to play Fitz, or Lamar in the first round. 

Cleve is a mess right now.

 

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26 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Two seed means two possible home games, in Buffalo, in January. 

McBeane need to keep the pedal to the metal, perhaps more snaps for the reserves, but eyes on the prize.

And the Chiefs showed yesterday they are not almighty against a very pedestrian Falcon's team. 

Don't want to play Fitz, or Lamar in the first round. 

Cleve is a mess right now.

 

The spread in that Cleveland Pitt game has the Browns as 6.5 point faves. Tells me Vegas is thinking Pitt is resting their starters next week. Not sure how they know that...

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1 minute ago, Bferra13 said:

The spread in that Cleveland Pitt game has the Browns as 6.5 point faves. Tells me Vegas is thinking Pitt is resting their starters next week. Not sure how they know that...

Does that mean Pitt is conceding the two seed? 

Don't think as nicked up as they are they want to play at Buff in the OP in January.

 

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1 minute ago, BearNorth said:

Does that mean Pitt is conceding the two seed? 

Don't think as nicked up as they are they want to play at Buff in the OP in January.

 

 

Possibly. You gotta think if Pitt rests theirs that we would too if we win this week.

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10 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

 

Possibly. You gotta think if Pitt rests theirs that we would too if we win this week.

And that is why the games are being played at the same time. Won’t know starters until game time.

Edited by Ta111
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10 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Two seed means two possible home games, in Buffalo, in January. 

McBeane need to keep the pedal to the metal, perhaps more snaps for the reserves, but eyes on the prize.

And the Chiefs showed yesterday they are not almighty against a very pedestrian Falcon's team. 

Don't want to play Fitz, or Lamar in the first round. 

Cleve is a mess right now.

 

Dont wanna play Fitz in the playoffs?   Oh cmon man, I know he had a solid game against us in Sept but we still won, they've regressed and we've improved.

 

Balt is looking tough but if we can't beat Miami here in WNY we really deserve to go home.

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10 minutes ago, Ta111 said:

And that is why the games are being played at the same time. Won’t know starters until game time.

True, but if Vegas knows something I'm sure the Bills intel would too. Maybe Vegas is just guessing as of now. Who knows. Seems like an awfully telling spread though.

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2 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

Dont wanna play Fitz in the playoffs?   Oh cmon man, I know he had a solid game against us in Sept but we still won, they've regressed and we've improved.

 

Balt is looking tough but if we can't beat Miami here in WNY we really deserve to go home.

Fitz is unpredictable and has a history in the OP.  Don't want to play Fitz Magic, and lately he's been more that than Fitz Tragic.

 

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39 minutes ago, prissythecat said:

 

Why would we want a lower seeding if no 2 seed is in play?

 

Because I understand that injuries could absolutely kill everything and that is mission number 1. 

 

If we win this week, we will have to try and win next to secure the 2nd seed without any help.  I would rather not have to play starters in week 17 to avoid Balt.  We can avoid Balt and rest by losing both games.

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Re: Steelers... all the whining about 3 games in 12 days has me believing they are physically and mentally drained right now. 

 

I could absolutely see them conceding the 2 seed and resting players against Cleveland.

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3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Re: Steelers... all the whining about 3 games in 12 days has me believing they are physically and mentally drained right now. 

 

I could absolutely see them conceding the 2 seed and resting players against Cleveland.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-17-early-odds-steelers-open-as-biggest-underdog-theyve-been-to-the-browns-in-more-than-30-years/

 

Makes sense. 

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3 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Assuming win tonight:
Win next week, play Indianapolis or Miami, host Divisional, potential to host AFCCG
Rest/lose next week, play Baltimore or Cleveland, road Divisional, less likely to host AFCCG

 

Frankly, I can't believe people are even contemplating resting.

 

Steelers are having the same conversation, and the betting line seems to indicate they are resting players.  We still get the 2 with a win tonight and both us/pitt losing next week.

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1 hour ago, Artem Lipatov said:

In all sports, When a team lose intentionally for choosing easier opponent in playoffs it almost always finishes badly. Don’t be afraid of anybody. Just win every opponent. It’s the process of building of winning spirit inside the team.

this !

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10 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Assuming win tonight:
Win next week, play Indianapolis or Miami, host Divisional, potential to host AFCCG
Rest/lose next week, play Baltimore or Cleveland, road Divisional, less likely to host AFCCG

 

Frankly, I can't believe people are even contemplating resting.

Also energy/momentum/winning attitude entering playoffs - and ask the Titans about how fun it is to travel to cold weather sites this time of year.

 

People also seem to be forgetting the bold above - for an awesomely untouchable unbeatable team the Chiefs have had a lot of games recently they could have lost 

 

image.thumb.png.c3010f227efbff4671635dac321a069e.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Assuming win tonight:
Win next week, play Indianapolis or Miami, host Divisional, potential to host AFCCG
Rest/lose next week, play Baltimore or Cleveland, road Divisional, less likely to host AFCCG

 

Frankly, I can't believe people are even contemplating resting.

 

Allen gets hurt and where do you end up?

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20 hours ago, RiotAct said:

could you imagine Tua throwing more than 8 or 9 yards downfield on a cold, windy day in Orchard Park?

After the Fitz Magic performance this past weekend, I don't want the fish.  Tuo is a kid who could go wild, Fitz could heave the ball 40 yards with a DE hanging off of his facemask.  Give me a known quantity.

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27 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

After the Fitz Magic performance this past weekend, I don't want the fish.  Tuo is a kid who could go wild, Fitz could heave the ball 40 yards with a DE hanging off of his facemask.  Give me a known quantity.

you have a point. I just feel like as long as we can contain Gesicki better than we did in our first matchup at the beginning of the season, we win fairly easily.

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3 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

You can't live that way. That's like Dick Jauron playing not to lose, not playing to win.

That is true if there is a point to winning the game like a higher seed.

You don't want him rusty either so a little play is good.  But I'm thinking coaches, players, owners, GM and fans all want this to be a "statement" game on the national stage against a hated team and head coach.  

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4 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

I'm playing not to lose the starting QB.

We could lose Allen or anyone to injury tonight as well. No one is suggesting sitting starters tonight. Next week is no different when a potential #2 seed is there for the taking. 

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2 minutes ago, cv05 said:

Update:

 

(5)Dolphins 10 5 0 40% 40% X
(8)Colts 10 5 0 22% 22% X
(6)Ravens 10 5 0 21% 21% X
(7)Browns 10 5 0 10% 10% X
(4)Titans 10 5 0 7% 7% X

 

Ravens matchup chances have gone up. 1 in 5 chance... 

I really think the Steelers are going to waive the white flag to the bills and rest their starters given the issues they have had. Colts won't lose to the jaguars for a second time the wild card to me is what the Texans can do to the titans. After what jj watt said after last week I think they play inspired and might clip the titans. Also ravens won't lose either 

 

 

 

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On 12/27/2020 at 6:24 PM, singlezero said:

yes i think  the best thing is  to make  sure  we knock  the  dolphins  out . we let them  win        with  resting our starters and it  might  bite  us  in  the  rear  in the first round

Dolphins are probably the 7 seed still if they lose...they move up to the 5 if they beat us most likely

Idk about you guys but I do not want to slip to 3 and see Baltimore in round 1...id much rather get them after the titans beat them up a bit

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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The "if we win" week 16 chart looks a whole lot better then the "if we lose" week 17 chart.   

 

Now if you tell me the Steelers are going to lose bc Ben won't be playing then fine.  I'll take backing into the 2 seed. 

 

 

 

Edited by Big Blitz
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10 hours ago, CodeMonkey said:

After the Fitz Magic performance this past weekend, I don't want the fish.  Tuo is a kid who could go wild, Fitz could heave the ball 40 yards with a DE hanging off of his facemask.  Give me a known quantity.

Horrendous playcall/execution by the raiders on that play.  That offense does look much more effective with fitzpatrick I can't believe Tua is seeing any playing time at all..he just holds the ball too long 

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4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

The "if we win" week 16 chart looks a whole lot better then the "if we lose" week 17 chart.   

 

Now if you tell me the Steelers are going to lose bc Ben won't be playing then fine.  I'll take backing into the 2 seed. 

 

 

 


this tells me our odds are much better at avoiding Baltimore in the 1st round if we play to win week 17.

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