Ok This Dolphins talk is getting out of hand.

[mjt328]

I don't understand why people keep pointing to Tua's stats.  The Dolphins destroyed a legitimate playoff team (the Rams) on Sunday, using the same formula that we used last season.  And if not for resting our starters in Week 17, we most likely would have won 11 games using that formula.  

 

As I pointed out in another thread, the Dolphins next five games are against the Cardinals, Chargers, Broncos, Jets and Bengals.  They could easily cruise through that stretch with a 3-2 record, putting them at 7-5 going into the final quarter of the season.  The way they are playing right now, it wouldn't be a far stretch for them to be 8-4 at that point.

 

During that same stretch, the Bills get the Seahawks, Cardinals, a bye, the Chargers and 49ers.  The way this team has been playing over the last month, I would be shocked if we are better than 2-2 over this next set of games.  I don't think the Bills can outscore the Seahawks and the 49ers are an absolutely terrible matchup for our defense.  We should beat the Chargers.  The Cardinals are a toss-up.  My guess is that we are sitting at 8-4 or 7-5, which is exactly where I anticipate the Dolphins being.

 

Every week, I become more skeptical that McDermott/Frazier can get this defense on track.  At this point, we can no longer look at the 2019 defense and say the 2020 version is just having a bad stretch.  For whatever reason, this year's unit is just plain bad.  I would venture to say the 2020 Bills defense is among the worst in the NFL.  At the same time, the offense has clearly come back to Earth.  They aren't a unit capable of regularly scoring 30+ points.  Put those things together, and I think we are looking at a pretty rough second-half of the season. 

 

I still think we can scrape together 9-10 wins.  But don't be surprised if the Dolphins are right there too.

 

[benderbender]

Where are all the members of the Ryan Fitzpatrick Broken Heart’s Club Band now? The peanut section has been awfully quiet. I don’t think there’s even been a new Fitz thread in *gasp* 3 or 4 days!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, qwksilver said:

That must have been written by some guy with a high football IQ!

 

Here are the stats:

 

Congrats to Tua.  His first win in the league.  Winning beats the hell out of losing.

 

If the Bills won while Allen threw 22 times for 93 yds, the Bills gained only 145 yards of offense, had only 8 first downs ,converted only 25% of their 3rd downs, and had 2 lost fumbles, I PROMISE this board would be totally lit up with posts about how Allen sucked and the Bills offense sucked and that manner of winning was "Unsustainable". 

 

Which last is true.

 

If you add in that the allowed 31 first downs, 41% 3rd down conversions and gave up 471 yds of offense including 355 yds passing - oh yeah and a 13 minute edge on TOP - our D would be regarded as being shredded, and we'd be regarded as damned lucky to escape alive.

 

Anyone writing a narrative about how that win showed we're now the team to beat in the AFC East after that kind of game would be mocked off the board.

 

I don't write this to diss the Dolphins; I think they've got good players on both sides of the ball and they're well-coached.  But that game was a ***** show for the Rams and once they recover from the neck-sprain caused by shaking their heads and wondering what just happened, they should be mad as hell.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

8 hours ago, Mango said:

They do have an easy stretch coming up, so buckle up, they might get hyped a TON more if they string together some wins. 
 

 

 

The "rules" around here say beating soft teams is meaningless.  Fyi 2 of their wins were against the Jets and Jags.  And a Ramsey-less Rams D that our QB lit up.  

 

I guess not if you're Miami.  Then you're the real deal when you beat the dregs of the NFL.  

 

And that defense Flores "built" included bringing in 3 very good FAs in Shaq Jones and Van Noy.  It should be good everyone came into the season acknowledging their CB duo might be the best in the league.  Them going 8-8 shouldn't surprise anyone.  

 

But they'll most likely be 7-9.  If Tua is awesome they could be better.  

 

Yes, they do have a good defense.  Shocking.  

[JerseyBills]

7 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

First, calm down...

 

The Bills are 4-0 in the division vs 1-3 for Miami and that one win was against the hapless 0-6 Jets.

 

The Dolphins beat SF mostly because of Fitz having a hot hand 22 of 28 for 350 yards, 3 TDs...and then they benched him. That Broke his heart in doing so...

 

Miami is 11th in points scored, 28th in yards. Mostly because of Fitz who is now riding the pine. Miami defense is #1 in points allowed, 20th in yards allowed.

 

The Ball bounced their way against the Rams with 4 turnovers but were outgained in yards by 471 to 145...whoa! 

 

Their next game is against the Arizona Cardinals, which should be very telling. Then the Chargers, Broncos, Jets, Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Bills.  

 

In my view it's probably good to be pushed a bit to keep winning. Also, it's way better to be in a slump in OCT/NOV rather then DEC/Jan. The Bills control their own destiny at this point and need to get back to that high powered, high scoring passing offense. Plus, they now have a running game. 

 

 

They also beat Rams off 2 Defensive TD and a Punt Return ,ST TD , the offense with Tua , understandably, looked really bad , you can't expect you D/ST to score for you consistently.  I think they'll be great next year but will finish at 8-8 max in 2020

[MJS]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

The math can be done easily like this.

 

For each game more in the win column, add 0.5. For each game less in the loss column, add 0.5.

 

Conversely,

For each game less in the win column, subtract 0.5.

For each game more in the loss column, subtract 0.5.

 

 

So you have 2 more wins(0.5 + 0.5 = 1) and 1 less loss (0.5). Which equates to 1.0+0.5 = 1.5

 

You can also think of it as if a team has one more win and one less loss, ie if we are 6-2 and the Dolphins were 5-3 instead of 4-3, you could add the 0.5 for the extra win and the 0.5 for 1 less loss to come to a full game(1) ahead.

Well that's pretty silly. If you add 1.5 wins to the Dolphins we are still .5 wins ahead of them.

 

It should be simple. We are 2 wins ahead of them. Period. And we have the tie breaker since we beat them.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

I don't understand why people keep pointing to Tua's stats.  The Dolphins destroyed a legitimate playoff team (the Rams) on Sunday, using the same formula that we used last season.  And if not for resting our starters in Week 17, we most likely would have won 11 games using that formula.  

 

Please look at the overall team stats.  When you allow the opponent more first downs on an almost 4:1 ratio, more 3rd down conversions, 250 more yards of offense, 13 minutes more TOP - I don't understand how "destroyed" is the appropriate adjective.

 

The Dolphins have great ST and they scored 7 off a punt return and another 7 off a fumble recovery taken in for a TD.  There's absolutely skill involved there - the Dolphins did manage to confuse and bemuse Goff to the tune of 2 picks that resulted field position at the Rams 33 and the Rams 8 yd line and another 14 points.  There's skill involved there, too. 

 

But it's not skill that's going to yield 28 points every week.

 

The Dolphins may be right there if they stick with Tua.  But the 14 points they scored from 33 and 8 yd line wouldn't have won them that game, much less a game against another team that doesn't make as many mistakes.  Tua has to show he can play QB in the NFL, and no offense (see what I did there?) to him (when your D and your ST score points, they count), he hasn't yet done so.

[MJS]

15 minutes ago, benderbender said:

Where are all the members of the Ryan Fitzpatrick Broken Heart’s Club Band now? The peanut section has been awfully quiet. I don’t think there’s even been a new Fitz thread in *gasp* 3 or 4 days!

I think Fitzpatrick would have played better. He certainly would have thrown for more than 90 yards.

[Nelius]

Well the Fins love is being driven extra hard here by two people in particular (who are potentially one in my opinion)...I remember Savior Edwards being a Dolphins fan, hmmm what are the odds.

 

^ LOL right on cue. I didn't even notice that when I posted.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Nelius

[Boxcar]

9 hours ago, Aaronthebaron said:

“The Bills have 1 win in the last 4 weeks” what the hell does that mean?

Means he frequently skipped remedial math

[Success]

I've heard this everywhere.

 

Apparently, style points DO matter in the NFL. They're winning by more over the past few weeks, while we're struggling for our W's.

 

I'm cool w/ it.  After finally vanquishing the Pats, there is literally NO WAY the Bills will cede this division to the rookie-starting, Fitz-betraying Dolphins.

 

[MAJBobby]

93 yards, Fumble Lost, 1 TD.  Not scared of that at all.

 

 

[Nelius]

7 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

 

I know it's hard for some Bills to fathom especially after the first month of the season when the Bills looked like a possible SB team including beating these same Dolphins in the process but just remember it's not how you start, it's how you finish so nobody will be shocked at the final division standings this year.

 

For the record, this guy has been trashing a 6-2 team, while simultaneously crowning a 4-3 team, for weeks. There's no logic involved. Certainly no IQ. Just pure, exhausting, trolling.

[Kwai San]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

The math can be done easily like this.

 

For each game more in the win column, add 0.5. For each game less in the loss column, add 0.5.

 

Conversely,

For each game less in the win column, subtract 0.5.

For each game more in the loss column, subtract 0.5.

 

 

So you have 2 more wins(0.5 + 0.5 = 1) and 1 less loss (0.5). Which equates to 1.0+0.5 = 1.5

 

You can also think of it as if a team has one more win and one less loss, ie if we are 6-2 and the Dolphins were 5-3 instead of 4-3, you could add the 0.5 for the extra win and the 0.5 for 1 less loss to come to a full game(1) ahead.

 

Sweet baby jesus....that there is sum fuzzy math.

[Albanybillsbacker]

Dolphins are going to have a nice successful 8-8 season.  Next year it will be a real race.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Albanybillsbacker

[Boxcar]

8 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

See, this is what happens when a team wins its games more convincingly.

Did the Dolphins win convincingly? Or did Jared Goff lose convincingly?

[Nelius]

Hey guys, just wait, this Dolphins team with Myles Gaskin and Preston Williams in the skill positions will somehow overcome a 2 game disadvantage in just the next few weeks, while the Bills apparently forget how to play football.

 

Anybody outside of the obvious trolls really believe this? If the Jets win this week are we gonna hear some rumblings about how they may have a better team if you huff paint and really think about it? Maybe if it's "convincing" enough.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Nelius

[Greg S]

14 minutes ago, Nelius said:

Hey guys, just wait, this Dolphins team with Myles Gaskin and Preston Williams in the skill positions will somehow overcome a 2 game disadvantage in just the next few weeks, while the Bills apparently forget how to play football.

 

Anybody outside of the obvious trolls really believe this? If the Jets win this week are we gonna hear some rumblings about how they may have a better team if you huff paint and really think about it? Maybe if it's "convincing" enough.

 

We will hear how they are F***ing up their draft position. They better stay winless because the Jaguars will be a serious threat to that #1 pick.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Greg S

[QLBillsFan]

27 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

Dolphins have the #1 scoring defense (points per game allowed) and among top ranked special teams.

 

This is why the beat the Rams with little resistance despite a rookie QB having a less than stellar start and not doing much on offense. They are simply built the way all good teams who get hot and make deep playoff runs every year do.

 

They've also won each of their games by 10+ points which is something the Bills haven't done this season. Best margin of victory was 10 points against the worst team in the league in week one.

 

If the Bills lose this week and the Dolphins win they'll be tied in the loss column with the Bills having played one more game not having their bye yet.

 

I know it's hard for some Bills to fathom especially after the first month of the season when the Bills looked like a possible SB team including beating these same Dolphins in the process but just remember it's not how you start, it's how you finish so nobody will be shocked at the final division standings this year.

So the Bills have played great then so so for a few weeks. You imply that the last three weeks of play by the Dolphins is going to continue. No doubt no question. And the Bills meanwhile will continue to play poorly. It’s a long season. The phins have had a nice run. They are playing a tough game at AZ with a rookie QB. It’s as if they are going to sustain this level of play and get all the turnovers. While the Bills who now it appears will have the benefit of two good weather games and a bye are simply not capable of improving. Let’s discuss in four weeks. I’m thinking by your assessment the Dolphins will be in first place by then. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by QLBillsFan

[mjt328]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Please look at the overall team stats.  When you allow the opponent more first downs on an almost 4:1 ratio, more 3rd down conversions, 250 more yards of offense, 13 minutes more TOP - I don't understand how "destroyed" is the appropriate adjective.

 

The Dolphins have great ST and they scored 7 off a punt return and another 7 off a fumble recovery taken in for a TD.  There's absolutely skill involved there - the Dolphins did manage to confuse and bemuse Goff to the tune of 2 picks that resulted field position at the Rams 33 and the Rams 8 yd line and another 14 points.  There's skill involved there, too. 

 

But it's not skill that's going to yield 28 points every week.

 

The Dolphins may be right there if they stick with Tua.  But the 14 points they scored from 33 and 8 yd line wouldn't have won them that game, much less a game against another team that doesn't make as many mistakes.  Tua has to show he can play QB in the NFL, and no offense (see what I did there?) to him (when your D and your ST score points, they count), he hasn't yet done so.

 

I agree that punt returns/defensive touchdowns are not a sustainable way to win games.  But neither is counting on a practice squad call-up to punch the ball out, just before the opponent scores the winning touchdown.  

 

The Dolphins are playing WAY BETTER than the Bills right now.  They have been playing better for well over a month now.  And honestly, it's not even close.

Anyone who denies that... either hasn't been paying attention around the rest of the NFL, is only looking at the standings, or is just willingly blind to the truth.

 

They held the Rams to 17 points (most of which came after they got out to a huge lead).  They destroyed the the 49ers 43-17.  They hung with the Seahawks until late in the 4th Quarter.  They blew-out the Jets -- which is the standard for everyone in the league except us.

 

The AFC East is not wrapped up, by any means.

 

[HT02]

You just knew this was coming, guys like this write this for the reactions'

[Big Turk]

40 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

Sweet baby jesus....that there is sum fuzzy math.

 

It's actually an in depth explanation of something you should be able to do in your head since like the 4th grade. Just saying. Why I am even having to explain this is beyond me.

Edited November 3, 2020 by matter2003

[mjt328]

12 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

So the Bills have played great then so so for a few weeks. You imply that the last three weeks of play by the Dolphins is going to continue. No doubt no question. And the Bills meanwhile will continue to play poorly. It’s a long season. The phins have had a nice run. They are playing a tough game at AZ with a rookie QB. It’s as if they are going to sustain this level of play and get all the turnovers. While the Bills who now it appears will have the benefit of two good weather games and a bye are simply not capable of improving. Let’s discuss in four weeks. I’m thinking by your assessment the Dolphins will be in first place by then. 

 

The Bills have not played "great" at any point this season.  Certainly not for a full 4 quarters on both sides of the ball.

Only one of their wins (Week 1 against the Jets) was by more than a single score.

 

Their offense played great the first 3-4 games, and has been average (at best) ever since.  The passing game is trending in the wrong direction, by virtually every metric.  That includes Josh Allen and the wide receivers.

 

Their defense has been dreadful, outside of maybe a few quarters.  The first half of the first Jets game.  The 4th quarter of the Raiders game.  The second half of the second Jets game.  The first half of the Patriots game.  Out of the 32 quarters they have played, the defense has been terrible in about 25 of them.

 

I would like to believe they can improve.  But we are now at the midpoint of the season.  Time is running out.  The Bills look like a team with an average offense and a bad defense, which has been fortunate enough to get some lucky calls (Rams) and well-timed turnovers (Raiders, Patriots).  They have also played the Jets twice already.  All signs are pointing towards a VERY ugly second half for this team.

 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Well that's pretty silly. If you add 1.5 wins to the Dolphins we are still .5 wins ahead of them.

 

It should be simple. We are 2 wins ahead of them. Period. And we have the tie breaker since we beat them.

 

Except it isn't that simple.  Because they have an extra game in hand that could either be a loss or a win. Which means that when they do play it, they will either be 1 full game behind or 2 full games behind. But until then it is an unknown so it is counted as a half game since it could go either way.  Do you never look at baseball standings?  This is beyond common sense, I just don't understand why this concept seems to be so hard for people to get.

3 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

The Bills have not played "great" at any point this season.  Certainly not for a full 4 quarters on both sides of the ball.

Only one of their wins (Week 1 against the Jets) was by more than a single score.

 

Their offense played great the first 3-4 games, and has been average (at best) ever since.  The passing game is trending in the wrong direction, by virtually every metric.  That includes Josh Allen and the wide receivers.

 

Their defense has been dreadful, outside of maybe a few quarters.  The first half of the first Jets game.  The 4th quarter of the Raiders game.  The second half of the second Jets game.  The first half of the Patriots game.  Out of the 32 quarters they have played, the defense has been terrible in about 25 of them.

 

I would like to believe they can improve.  But we are now at the midpoint of the season.  Time is running out.  The Bills look like a team with an average offense and a bad defense, which has been fortunate enough to get some lucky calls (Rams) and well-timed turnovers (Raiders, Patriots).  They have also played the Jets twice already.  All signs are pointing towards a VERY ugly second half for this team.

 

 

How many teams have played "great" on both sides of the ball for 4 quarters this year?  I am not sure even the Steelers would claim that. Their offense has struggled at times quite a bit. Have the Seahawks?  Their defense is among the worst in the NFL.

Edited November 3, 2020 by matter2003

[CircleTheWagons99]

yahoo? really? YAHOO???? LOL

[TheBrownBear]

Miami got outgained by 350 yards.  That win was the epitome of a fluke.

 

Their win against the Jets was against Joe Flacco. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by TheBrownBear

[Buffalo Junction]

8 hours ago, Gambit said:

That bolded part hurts. Fitz didn't deserve to be benched when he was playing well. I hope the Phish regret it when it's all said and done. 

I’m hoping there’s some hidden curse for trying to end the Fitzpatrick Cycle prematurely. 

[Nextmanup]

32 minutes ago, HT02 said:

You just knew this was coming, guys like this write this for the reactions'

Actually, the story of the up-and-coming Dolphins is going to be one of the more riveting things to follow in the league this year, especially as Bills fans.

 

Our second meeting could be quite a matchup with some big implications.  

 

 

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, Gambit said:

That bolded part hurts. Fitz didn't deserve to be benched when he was playing well. I hope the Phish regret it when it's all said and done. 

 

You think the Fins care? They need to see if Tua is a viable franchise QB because they have a rare opportunity to use another team's high draft pick they got in a trade to potentially pick another, better one if they need to. Those opportunities almost never come around and it is very smart for the Fins to be exploring it.

[Buffalo Junction]

33 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

 

All I'm saying is that the the available data right now points to the Dolphins being the better team (at present) despite the respective win/loss records and division standings. And yes if the current trends hold up the Dolphins will be in first and sole possession of the division in the next month.

 

Of course this doesn't mean it's set and stone and will hold, the Bills very well may start to player better and the Dolphins could be peaking....but again the bigger concerns at present are:

 

1) Common opponent performance - The Dolphins beat the Jets 24-0 without doing much of anything in the 2nd half and the next week we were trailing into the 2nd half against the same Jets team and only won 18-10. We beat the Rams 35-32 on a questionable 4th down PI call. Where the Dolphins dominated in a game that was over at halftime.

2) Week 2 deep dive - take nothing away from Josh Allen, but it took a career 400+ yard game and recovering an onside kick to beat the Dolphins in week 2. Odds say that under the same circumstances we lose that same game 9 out of 10 times because of how rare it is for any QB to post those kind of numbers.

 

Yes this is a hated division rival but there's nothing wrong with being unbiased and saying that right now they are the better team in a week to week NFL league. The good news is we don't have to play them again until the season finale which very well could be for the division title or a win and get in WC spot for each respective team.

 

 

How do injuries factor into your season long view of the Bills and Phins? IIRC, the Fins only had a backup corner out in that Rams game. In contrast this Bills team has been nailed with injuries since game one. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

35 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Did the Dolphins win convincingly? Or did Jared Goff lose convincingly?

 

To be fair, Jared Goff didn't lose it alone.  He had help from his ST unit and his OL

[Penfield45]

Dolphins have a much easier last half of the season compared to us. they could easily get 9 wins from that 

[Boxcar]

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To be fair, Jared Goff didn't lose it alone.  He had help from his ST unit and his OL

True, but the bottom line is that the Rams had a bad game. I think the Dolphins are pretty good, and I always strongly disagreed with how they were being dismissed early in the year, but they aren't division challengers quite yet.

3 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

Dolphins have a much easier last half of the season compared to us. they could easily get 9 wins from that 

They have 5 games I where I would expect them to be dogs (Chiefs, Bills, Pats, Raiders, Cardinals) and a few games that will be very tough (Broncos, Chargers, Bengals). I see only one game where I'd feel comfortable betting them to win, against the Jets.

[Nelius]

I swear, if the situation was reversed and the scrappy 4-3 Bills were looking up at the 6-2 Dolphins, there might actually be more optimism about the Bills around here. Forever loving the underdog.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Nelius

[Big Turk]

28 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

 

Jet's have lost 2 games against the Bills by 10 and 8 points. They also lost to the Broncos by 9 points

 

In all other games they have lost by an average margin of 20+ points.

 

This is why IMO there still isn't enough of a spotlight on this coaching staff as to why they can never comfortably beat an inferior NFL opponent, let alone win in blowout fashion like all 4 of the Dolphins wins have been this year.

 

You don't get style points in the NFL. Only a W or an L. That only matters for people's opinions.

Edited November 3, 2020 by matter2003

[section122]

1 hour ago, High Football IQ said:

 

All I'm saying is that the the available data right now points to the Dolphins being the better team (at present) despite the respective win/loss records and division standings.

 

This is just an amazingly not high football iq sentence.

 

The Bills are 6-2 and have a head to head win against the 4-3 Dolphins.

 

Win/Loss record and division standings are literally the only data that matters.

[Kwai San]

57 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

It's actually an in depth explanation of something you should be able to do in your head since like the 4th grade. Just saying. Why I am even having to explain this is beyond me.

 

Oh I understand the math aspect......still 4-0 in the division versus 1-3?????  I'll concede you the 1.5 games based on the 4th grade math - feel pretty superior now don'tcha?

[Nelius]

I'm going to throw out all of these insane predictions with the caveat that I could be completely wrong.

 

Would love to see all of those W/L projections, IQ. Oh there we go. Hmm yes, 11 wins for the Fins and 8 for the Bills, seems likely.

Edited November 3, 2020 by Nelius

[Nelius]

8 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

 

Yes it does at present, but again it may be a different story at the end of the season based on the final W/L projections I have for each team respectively based on remaining schedules which is probably 8/9 max for the Bills and 10/11 max for the Dolphins.

 

Can we get a breakdown of these 11 Dolphins wins?

[section122]

10 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

 

Yes it does at present, but again it may be a different story at the end of the season based on the final W/L projections I have for each team respectively based on remaining schedules which is probably 8/9 max for the Bills and 10/11 max for the Dolphins.

 

Please put your projections on paper for us...