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Protocal69

Ok This Dolphins talk is getting out of hand.

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28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

In fairness we got a lot of credit the first 4 weeks from the talking heads around the networks. We were in the top 6 or 7 of all the power rankings. The reason people are down on the Bills at the moment is because the last four performances haven't been great and there are some very noticeable flaws in the team. Beat the Seahawks on Sunday and that narrative shifts again IMO.

You could tell the talk was with reluctance though for the most part. It always is because we've had strong starts before and crumbled down the stretch. Win the division, get at least one W in the playoffs(if not more), and the narratives will change. No, our last 4 games haven't been like the first 4, but we've been dealing with many injuries at key positions and didn't even have the slightest hint of a running game until this past Sunday. If we can somehow beat Seattle yes the talk will shift again, but it will still be hesitation until we close out the division and win a meaningful game in January. 

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Just now, H2o said:

You could tell the talk was with reluctance though for the most part. It always is because we've had strong starts before and crumbled down the stretch. Win the division, get at least one W in the playoffs(if not more), and the narratives will change. No, our last 4 games haven't been like the first 4, but we've been dealing with many injuries at key positions and didn't even have the slightest hint of a running game until this past Sunday. If we can somehow beat Seattle yes the talk will shift again, but it will still be hesitation until we close out the division and win a meaningful game in January. 

 

I think you have a bit of BBFS Paranoia. Consult your physician for appropriate medication. ;)

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15 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

The math can be done easily like this.

 

For each game more in the win column, add 0.5. For each game less in the loss column, add 0.5.

 

Conversely,

For each game less in the win column, subtract 0.5.

For each game more in the loss column, subtract 0.5.

 

 

So you have 2 more wins(0.5 + 0.5 = 1) and 1 less loss (0.5). Which equates to 1.0+0.5 = 1.5

 

You can also think of it as if a team has one more win and one less loss, ie if we are 6-2 and the Dolphins were 5-3 instead of 4-3, you could add the 0.5 for the extra win and the 0.5 for 1 less loss to come to a full game(1) ahead.

 

 

 

Yeah, that's how it works. In Bizarro world.

 

In this one, on the other hands, each extra game in the win column gives you ... well, it give you an extra win, which is +1.0, not half a game.

 

Two wins more is two games up.

 

One more Dolphins loss when they have played one game less than us is a further half a game. If the Dolphins win that extra game while we're on the bye week, the margin will go down to just two games ahead. If they lose, it will go up to three games ahead.

 

Two and a half games up.

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3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yeah, that's how it works. In Bizarro world.

 

In this one, on the other hands, each extra game in the win column gives you ... well, it give you an extra win, which is +1.0, not half a game.

 

Two wins more is two games up.

 

One more Dolphins loss when they have played one game less than us is a further half a game. If the Dolphins win that extra game while we're on the bye week, the margin will go down to just two games ahead. If they lose, it will go up to three games ahead.

 

Two and a half games up.

 

No that isn't how it works. In any world.

 

A full game is one more win AND one less loss. 

2 extra wins with the same number of losses means you are 1 full game ahead, NOT 2.

 

Effectively it is exactly as I broke it down but I never think of it like that, I simply just do the quick math in my head.

 

I mean all you have to do is look at baseball standings any day during the year to understand how half games and full games work.

 

What you stated is simply wrong.

Edited by matter2003
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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think you have a bit of BBFS Paranoia. Consult your physician for appropriate medication. ;)

Yeah, no. Just stating the obvious. No medication required. :thumbsup:

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Even with a total collapse by the Bills, it's hard to envision the last game of the season not being for the AFC East crown.  If the Bills go 2 -5 down the stretch, the Dolphins would have to go 6 - 2 for the game not to be for the title.  Ain't going to happen.  Split with Seahawks and Cardinals and we're in the driver's seat.

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7 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/week-8-takeaways-give-it-up-for-the-dolphins-the-best-team-in-the-afc-east-183728407.html

 

Week 8 takeaways: The Dolphins are the best team in the AFC East

Jeff Simmons
Mon, November 2, 2020, 1:37 PM EST
 
 

The Buffalo Bills’ victory over the New England Patriots was deemed by some as a changing of the guard in the AFC East, but the best team in the division didn’t play in that game. Believe it or not, the best team in the AFC East is the Miami Dolphins.

 

The Dolphins are playing at a far higher level than the Bills over the last month, as Josh Allen’s previous issues have resurfaced. Miami has won three straight games, including an impressive 28-17 victory over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8 with next to no production from rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa in his NFL debut. Alternatively, the Bills have just one win in their last four weeks and needed to force a fumble deep in their own territory to hold off a late surge from the rather underwhelming Patriots.

 

There is plenty of evidence to support Miami’s legitimacy. The Dolphins’ point differential, an important measure of overall quality, is plus-58 (fifth in AFC), while the Bills, who lead the division with a 6-2 record, have a negative point differential (minus-1), a sign they are winning with an u

nsustainable formula. Buffalo has been disappointing on defense, ranking 29th in the NFL in DVOA, while Miami ranks in the top-10.

Head coach Brian Flores has built a complete team in his second season with Miami. That much was evident Sunday, as they managed to rack up a passing, rushing, special teams and defensive touchdown against the Rams.

 

The Dolphins will certainly need more from Tagovailoa if they want to pass Buffalo in the standings. The rookie was just 12-of-22 for 93 yards and a touchdown, but Allen wasn’t much better on Sunday, going 11-of-18 for 154 yards with no scores through the air. Allen has not thrown a touchdown over his last two games, while his completion percentage has dropped considerably since his MVP-level start over the first four games.

 

In the first four games, Josh Allen had 21 completions of 20 yards or more. Over the last four games, he has four completions of 20 yards or more, two to wideouts.

Stefon Diggs had eight catches of 20 yards or more in the first four games, none in the last four.

— Jerry Sullivan (@ByJerrySullivan) November 2, 2020

Right now, Miami is a more complete team than Buffalo from top to bottom and Flores should be in the conversation for coach of the year.

 

This article is flawed in so many ways:

1st: The BILLS have more than one win in the last 4 weeks (2). The teams the BILLS lost to have 3 combined losses on the season

 

2nd: The guy wants to mention the point differential being a -1 means that we are not winning in a sustainable way. Ill tell you what, throwing for 93 yards which was what Tua passed for is not sustainable. 

 

3rd: The guy wants to use a Jerry Sullivan stat regarding Diggs having no 20 yard catches in the last 4 games. Well teams playing 2 high safety will slow down the deep passes so that stat means nothing in context. Last 4 games Diggs is averaging  7 catches 73 yards 

 

4th: The BILLS are basically 3 games ahead of the Dolphins in the standing. 2.5 games plus tiebreaker. You can never say a team that is 3 games back in the division after 8 weeks is better than the team leading the division. 

 

Get back to me when the Dolphins beat a team that the Bills have lost to on the schedule. Bills have already beat the Dolphins on the road to make it so bad. These writers will do anything for clicks.

 

 

 

 


Allen is and will be better than Tua. We got them there.

 

As far as coaching though, they have us by a mile. Flores is excellent and will eventually pass us because of that.

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15 minutes ago, H2o said:

You could tell the talk was with reluctance though for the most part. It always is because we've had strong starts before and crumbled down the stretch. Win the division, get at least one W in the playoffs(if not more), and the narratives will change. No, our last 4 games haven't been like the first 4, but we've been dealing with many injuries at key positions and didn't even have the slightest hint of a running game until this past Sunday. If we can somehow beat Seattle yes the talk will shift again, but it will still be hesitation until we close out the division and win a meaningful game in January. 

 

 

Not buying that bit about reluctance at all. People were overwhelmed with Allen's performances those first four weeks. There was overall very very little reluctance.

 

The narrative has already changed twice. First in that we were for real, then again that we are good but not a serious Super Bowl contender playing as we are. Yeah, it'll switch again if we beat Seattle, which is only reasonable. That's what should happen. Same with the hesitation. Unless the whole team and particularly the defense starts playing better, we'll deserve it until, as you say, we close out the division and win a meaningful January game. 

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Just now, McBean said:


Allen is and will be better than Tua. We got them there.

 

As far as coaching though, they have us by a mile. Flores is excellent and will eventually pass us because of that.

 

Flores has done a great job so far but McDermott deserves credit here as well. The Bills aren't a finished product. He and Beane took over an organization that missed the playoffs for 17 straight years. This year the Bills are on track to win the division and reach the post season for the 3rd time in 4 years. Now their is pressure to win a playoff game as one and done is getting old and not acceptable anymore. But the Bills are heading in the right direction.

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Jared Goff had a first half like EJ in London. Everything went wrong and they were just so out of it to start.

 

Tua looked bad. Trent Edwards like. I was not at all impressed. If the Dolphins can get a ST TD and a Defensive TD every week, sure they can win every game, but they won't

 

Tua needs to play a lot better if they want to make the playoffs. 93 yards simply wont cut it 

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3 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Jared Goff had a first half like EJ in London. Everything went wrong and they were just so out of it to start.

 

Tua looked bad. Trent Edwards like. I was not at all impressed. If the Dolphins can get a ST TD and a Defensive TD every week, sure they can win every game, but they won't

 

Tua needs to play a lot better if they want to make the playoffs. 93 yards simply wont cut it 

Dolphins are getting a lot of breaks right now. The ball is bouncing their way as they say. But they're playing with confidence and at some point we have to start saying that they're forcing teams to make mistakes. They remind me of the 2004 Bills back in the day minus the QB change. 

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24 minutes ago, McBean said:


Allen is and will be better than Tua. We got them there.

 

As far as coaching though, they have us by a mile. Flores is excellent and will eventually pass us because of that.

 

 

 

 

Nonsense about the coaching.

 

Too early to fully know about either guy, but particularly Flores. If you had to pick one right now you'd go with McDermott. This Bills team has overachieved each of the last three years. Not so far this year but it's still up in the air what will happen this year.

 

My guess is that you're right about Allen and Tua, but any guess coming after one game's performance is based on such a vast lack of knowledge as to be worth virtually nothing.

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19 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Dolphins are getting a lot of breaks right now. The ball is bouncing their way as they say. But they're playing with confidence and at some point we have to start saying that they're forcing teams to make mistakes. They remind me of the 2004 Bills back in the day minus the QB change. 

Looks like they are going to lost to Matt Barkley in week 17!

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2 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

image.png.e107d32e00961e7eead8fe0aa7b4a8c2.png

 

I dunno but the math I see from above says 2 games ahead as in 6 wins versus 4 wins....eff the .5 game crap.  Oh yeah and that game in hand.  This theoretical crap is just that.......

It's like hockey, they have a game in hand and with their easier schedule figure it to be a one game lead. I think the bigger point is stop focusing on the Patriots and pay attention to Miami because for the foreseeable future I think it's a Buffalo/Miami division. 

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13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

Nonsense about the coaching.

 

Too early to fully know about either guy, but particularly Flores. If you had to pick one right now you'd go with McDermott. This Bills team has overachieved each of the last three years. Not so far this year but it's still up in the air what will happen this year.

 

My guess is that you're right about Allen and Tua, but any guess coming after one game's performance is based on such a vast lack of knowledge as to be worth virtually nothing.

 

I mean with similar talent to what the Fins had last year, McDermott went 9-7 and made the playoffs his first year while getting rid of big contracts and good players to the point people claimed we were tanking. Not sure how we are so quick to forget that.

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13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

Nonsense about the coaching.

 

Too early to fully know about either guy, but particularly Flores. If you had to pick one right now you'd go with McDermott. This Bills team has overachieved each of the last three years. Not so far this year but it's still up in the air what will happen this year.

 

My guess is that you're right about Allen and Tua, but any guess coming after one game's performance is based on such a vast lack of knowledge as to be worth virtually nothing.

The coaching is close as they are both defensive guys and need help on the offense. Fitz turned the team around but Flores learned from him. I don't believe for a minute that it was his decision to start Tua. They want to see if he's the real deal before the draft.

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2 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

image.png.e107d32e00961e7eead8fe0aa7b4a8c2.png

 

I dunno but the math I see from above says 2 games ahead as in 6 wins versus 4 wins....eff the .5 game crap.  Oh yeah and that game in hand.  This theoretical crap is just that.......

 

If that was how it was actually calculated you would be correct but it isn't.  Games ahead are calculated by wins AND losses.  So a full game ahead equates to 1 more win AND 1 less loss. Or 2 more wins and the same number of losses.  Or 2 less losses and the same number of wins.  The easiest way to think of it is each additional win is worth a half game and each fewer loss is worth a half game. So 2 more wins and 1 less loss = 3 x 0.5 = 1.5. 

 

I am not sure how many people still are confused by this when baseball standings are so easy to look at on literally any day during the season and understand this through nothing more than common sense. It is simple math.  Like the kind of math you learn in 4th grade.

Edited by matter2003
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7 hours ago, Billznut said:

The Bills have a 1.5 game lead plus tiebreaker, not 2.5 game lead. So I would eliminate point 4. Points 1-3 I would agree with. 

 

The author is simply a blogger from Canada ... he’s expressing his opinion ... who cares?

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1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

No that isn't how it works. In any world.

 

A full game is one more win AND one less loss. 

2 extra wins with the same number of losses means you are 1 full game ahead, NOT 2.

 

Effectively it is exactly as I broke it down but I never think of it like that, I simply just do the quick math in my head.

 

I mean all you have to do is look at baseball standings any day during the year to understand how half games and full games work.

 

What you stated is simply wrong.

 

 

Sorry. The perils of posting while exhausted.

 

Don't know what I was thinking. I apologize for the tone as well.

 

Clearly I need to stop posting and get to sleep.

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7 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The Phins have a much easier schedule than the Bills do going forward.  That is the only thing in their favor.  If the Phins can score a defensive TD and special teams TD every week for the rest of the season like they did against the Rams,  they will be a threat to win the AFCE.  In the absence of the Phins setting all time NFL records for defensive and special teams scoring in a season, I think the Bills will probably squeak it out...

 

They play:

Cardinals (5-2)

Broncos (3-4)

Chargers (2-5)

Jets (0-8)

Bengals (2-5-1)

Chiefs (7-1)

Patriots (2-5)

Raiders (4-3)

Us (6-2)


We play:

Seahawks (6-1)

Cardinals (5-2)

Chargers (2-5)

49ers (4-4)

Steelers (7-0)

Broncos (3-4)

Patriots (2-5)

Dolphins (4-3)

 

At present, looking at the Dubs, they play teams with 31 W.  We play teams with 33 W.  Huh, we have 2 more W than they do.

 

Four of those opponents are literally identical, then we play each other.  For the non-identical opponents, we have the Seahawks and Steelers as very very good teams.  They have the Chiefs and the Raiders - the Raiders on the right day can stand with anyone - they have a very tough schedule and have beaten the Saints and the Chiefs and could well be fighting for a playoff spot.  Those two games, they may have easier opponents.  Or they may not.

 

 

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