Around the NFL. Sunday Gameday

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 minutes ago, DallasMac said:

They were running the ball extremely well without Cook.  Have zero issue with the call and after seeing the Seatle drive do you really think they wouldnt of been able to get the 2 pt conversion.   You have a yard to get and the game is done.  If you cant trust your offense to get that idk what to say.

I don’t know. 8 point lead is pretty air tight. At a min, you go to OT. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Minnesota totally screwed themselves by not kicking the field goal

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

16 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

6'5" 230lbs 40.5" vertical, a 4.3 40 yard dash and natural hands, but people were skeptical because of a 3-cone drill...

 

"People" like Beane and McD?

 

Its tough to hit on them all.... I dont see anyone else doing that

[BuffaloRebound]

He’s gonna take a lot of heat, but I still like that Zimmer went for it.  Half a yard and you were stuffing it down their throats.  But hey that’s life man.  Gotta be able to live with the consequences. I bet Zimmer would do the same thing if given the chance and I bet all/most of his players have his back.  

[Cruiserplayer]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

He’s gonna take a lot of heat, but I still like that Zimmer went for it.  Half a yard and you were stuffing it down their throats.  But hey that’s life man.  Gotta be able to live with the consequences. I bet Zimmer would do the same thing if given the chance and I bet all/most of his players have his back.  

I agree but I didn’t like the third down call.

[Aussie Joe]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If they gained 1 yard the game was over. You don't give Russell Wilson the chance to drive for a game winning TD, as we just saw. I just didn"t like the decision to run it there. Give your QB the ball and let him pick up a yard.

 

But it wasnt a game winning drive.. at best it was a game tie-ing drive subject to them making  the 2 ...

 

I know the Bills havent stopped a 2 point conversion seemingly for the last 5 years but other teams can make them a 50-50 proposition

 

 

 

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by Aussie Joe

[ILBillsfan]

The saying is on the road always take the points.......

[DallasMac]

6 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I don’t know. 8 point lead is pretty air tight. At a min, you go to OT. 

I truly dont think there was a wrong choice.  If he played it safe and kicks the fg i wouldve understood.  Im just saying that with the way they were running the ball i have absolutely no problem with them trusting the O to gain a yard.  And also believing that if they didnt get it that the D could prevent a td. 

[Process]

Anyone saying they should have kicked the FG either is results oriented or just doesn't know better. It's a no brainier that you go for it and end the game. Terrible play call. They had to go 6 inches. QB sneak is pretty close to 100% in that spot. 

[HappyDays]

15 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

But it wasnt a game winning drive.. at best it was a game tie-ing drive subject to them making  the 2 ...

 

True I realized that after I made my post. Still, you need to get 1 yard and the game is over. Even if you get stopped your defense has to hold a 94 yard TD drive. I'd want my coach to go for the win there every time... Then again we are spoiled with Josh Allen as our QB. 4th and 1 is practically automatic for him.

Edited October 12, 2020 by HappyDays

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

True I realized that after I made my post. Still, you need to get 1 yard and the game is over. Even if you get stopped your defense has to hold a 94 yard TD drive. I'd want my coach to go for the win there every time... Then again we are spoiled with Josh Allen as our QB. 4th and 1 is practically automatic for him.

 

Fair enough.. I can see this point of view too that you QB sneak and get it than the game is over..

 

Would love to know the sliding windows of how the game turns out if they go 8 points up though.. even if they score, they need to make the 2 ( which they missed) and then its OT where the Vikes had been moving the ball pretty well on Seattle most of the game...... 

 

Anyway.. I guess this is why we watch the games until the end and its easy to make the call at home with beer in hand and no consequences for getting it wrong!

 

[DallasMac]

38 minutes ago, Process said:

Anyone saying they should have kicked the FG either is results oriented or just doesn't know better. It's a no brainier that you go for it and end the game. Terrible play call. They had to go 6 inches. QB sneak is pretty close to 100% in that spot. 

They went from the 50 to the 6 without throwing once.  The play was there to be made but it wasnt executed.  

[Punching Bag]

6 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Players and coaches around the league are still disregarding the NFL protocols for postgame interactions. It's so strange. Even after Mahomes apologized for it, you still see most of his teammates interacting with opposing players and staff after the game.

 

If they had made some Titans players forfeit their salaries the players would know that there is teeth in protocols.

I hope every player playing Titans think Stomp the Titans is Stomping out COVID19.  The Buffalo News used to include in paper signs like "Stomp the Titans",.

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, Jaraxxus said:

The Bills and their fans have zero reason to fear any of their upcoming opponents. The can beat any or all of them.

This is absolutely true they are capable of beating any team they go up against. That is not to say their aren't tough teams that might beat them, any given Sunday, but they can beat all of them.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Process said:

Anyone saying they should have kicked the FG either is results oriented or just doesn't know better. It's a no brainier that you go for it and end the game. Terrible play call. They had to go 6 inches. QB sneak is pretty close to 100% in that spot. 

Kirk Cousins is puny man.  He no get one yard 

Small and weak. He no Josh Allen

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

@GunnerBill boy Thielen killing it for me in fantasy last couple of weeks...

 

Glad he doesn’t appear to be too slowed down by the loss of Diggs...👍

 

He had a great game last night Thielen. I have never been anti-Thielen. I just always thought Diggs was the more talented of the two guys and the way teams defended the Vikings pass game the past 2 or 3 years suggested they agreed. But Thielen is a top 10, top 12 receiver. He has some of the best body control in the NFL and he showed it again tonight with his backing into the endzone touchdown.

[GunnerBill]

Overall thoughts on SNF....

 

1. The Vikings actually had a great gameplan. The weakness of this Seattle team is the trenches. The Vikings won up front on both sides and tried to make it a physical football game. The problem when you do that is that you have to be perfect and once they started making mistakes - especially with penalties on the Oline (the right guard in particular was terrible he could have been called for holding on almost every snap 2nd half) - they let Seattle back in.

 

2. Russ can only cook if they can keep him clean. The offensive line has taken a backward step from last year. Yes Lockett and Metcalf are great and they can get quick separation but the line needs to hold up.

 

3. Delvin Cook might be the best running back in the NFL. The problem is keeping him healthy.

 

4. The 4th down call at the end..... I get it.... convert and the game is over.... but fail to get it and the game is also over (not in a good way). I'd have kicked the field goal. Maybe that is playing not to lose but I don't want Russell Wilson having 2 minutes to go 95 yards against me knowing a touchdown beats me.

 

5. Adam Thielen was outstanding. Even in an offense where he is basically the only outside receiver to cover he still ate. I think the problem is the skill position players they do have don't necessarily suit the way Cousins plays. He wants to roll out and get on the edge but this Minnesota offense should be an "in to out" offense. Feed Jefferson and your two tight ends more - they can make plays. I know they did get Jefferson the ball some last week where he ran some over routes from out of the slot (one of his signature plays at LSU) but I think they need to do a better job of working inside.

 

6. Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright don't get enough credit. They were overshadowed for years by the legion of boom but they are truly great football players. I can make a case for both getting HoF consideration when all is said and done.

[Mr. WEO]

7 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

He’s gonna take a lot of heat, but I still like that Zimmer went for it.  Half a yard and you were stuffing it down their throats.  But hey that’s life man.  Gotta be able to live with the consequences. I bet Zimmer would do the same thing if given the chance and I bet all/most of his players have his back.  

 

Probably the worst decision made by a coach all year so far.  You go up by 8 with under two minutes against Wilson all day long.  Make him score twice to TIE the game.

[eball]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Probably the worst decision made by a coach all year so far.  You go up by 8 with under two minutes against Wilson all day long.  Make him score twice to TIE the game.

 

I agree, even if the “chart” says differently.  You eliminate the regulation time loss and give your D a chance to make a play to seal the win.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Probably the worst decision made by a coach all year so far.  You go up by 8 with under two minutes against Wilson all day long.  Make him score twice to TIE the game.

 

That was my feeling too. I know the maths probably disagrees, likelihood of getting 1 yard etc... but in my head if I go for it I am giving myself one way to win the game. I have to get it. If I kick the FG I am giving myself a chance to win the game by stopping the 2 pointer and even if I fail both the worst I have is OT. Maybe that is playing not to lose, I don't know but it just felt instantly like the wrong call to me.

 

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I agree, even if the “chart” says differently.  You eliminate the regulation time loss and give your D a chance to make a play to seal the win.

 

If @Mr. WEO, @eball and myself are all in agreement (I reckon that happens pretty rarely) then I think this proves they shoulda kicked the FG

[Chandemonium]

8 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Do you get the logic now where a FG puts them 8 up rather than 7?

No, because if minny kicked Seattle likely would’ve played for the tie whether it was 7 points or 8. If they had gone for 2 earlier and made it, the field goal would’ve made it a 2 score game. Of course this is all moot because the vikes went for it and got stuffed, but I still think trying to go up by 6 was the right play on minny’s last TD.

[mannc]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That was my feeling too. I know the maths probably disagrees, likelihood of getting 1 yard etc... but in my head if I go for it I am giving myself one way to win the game. I have to get it. If I kick the FG I am giving myself a chance to win the game by stopping the 2 pointer and even if I fail both the worst I have is OT. Maybe that is playing not to lose, I don't know but it just felt instantly like the wrong call to me.

 

 

If @Mr. WEO, @eball and myself are all in agreement (I reckon that happens pretty rarely) then I think this proves they shoulda kicked the FG

Actually, it is by going for it that you give yourself two ways to win: (1) make the first down—game over, (2) keep the Seahawks from driving 95 yds for a TD—game over.  I’d also be willing to bet that the odds of making the first down there aren’t much worse than missing the FG; the Vikings had been running it down their throats. 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, mannc said:

Actually, it is by going for it that you give yourself two ways to win: (1) make the first down—game over, (2) keep the Seahawks from driving 95 yds for a TD—game over.  I’d also be willing to bet that the odds of making the first down there aren’t much worse than missing the FG; the Vikings had been running it down their throats. 

 

I don't think they were stopping the touchdown drive in response in either scenario. To me if Seattle got the ball back they were scoring. So the question was make them score once to win or make them score twice to tie.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That was my feeling too. I know the maths probably disagrees, likelihood of getting 1 yard etc... but in my head if I go for it I am giving myself one way to win the game. I have to get it. If I kick the FG I am giving myself a chance to win the game by stopping the 2 pointer and even if I fail both the worst I have is OT. Maybe that is playing not to lose, I don't know but it just felt instantly like the wrong call to me.

 

 

If @Mr. WEO, @eball and myself are all in agreement (I reckon that happens pretty rarely) then I think this proves they shoulda kicked the FG

it is a very interesting analytics decision. You are weighing chance to convert against chance to make FG and Seattle’s chance to score a TD and get the 2-point, AND chances of losing in OT.

 

hindsight is 20-20, but I think the smart play is to kick the FG and “play to lose.” As you said, It would have required Seattle to basically jump through three hoops to win— score TD, convert 2, and win in OT. 

 

in any event, it would be cool to sort of work out all the probabilities to see what the analytics would say in that precise situation. 

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think they were stopping the touchdown drive in response in either scenario. To me if Seattle got the ball back they were scoring. So the question was make them score once to win or make them score twice to tie.

If you assume Seattle is going to score a TD when they get the ball back, then you simply have to go for it to end the game.  Otherwise, you’re counting on stopping the 2-point conversion or winning in overtime, both of which are far less likely than picking up 6 inches for the first.

5 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

it is a very interesting analytics decision. You are weighing chance to convert against chance to make FG and Seattle’s chance to score a TD and get the 2-point, AND chances of losing in OT.

 

hindsight is 20-20, but I think the smart play is to kick the FG and “play to lose.” As you said, It would have required Seattle to basically jump through three hoops to win— score TD, convert 2, and win in OT. 

 

in any event, it would be cool to sort of work out all the probabilities to see what the analytics would say in that precise situation. 

I’m pretty sure analytics says you go for it there, but it’s probably a close call.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

If you assume Seattle is going to score a TD when they get the ball back, then you simply have to go for it to end the game.  Otherwise, you’re counting on stopping the 2-point conversion or winning in overtime, both of which are far less likely than picking up 6 inches for the first.

 

I get it the maths says the most likely way of winning is picking up 6 inches. I don't care. I want to give myself the three hoops over the one. I appreciate the maths would be against me but football is played with humans not numbers. My gut instantly said "wrong call" before I even knew what play they were running.

[zow2]

My takeaways from yesterday are that

 

- Alex Smith is one tough MoFo.  He's not good anymore but just being on the field was fantastic to see.

 

- The Bills win over Miami and Las Vegas look pretty darn good.  People just assume both those teams are blah, but those were decent wins.  and the Rams was a very good win.  KC would be a GREAT win if we can pull it off.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I’m pretty sure analytics says you go for it there, but it’s probably a close call.

was just reading this on ESPN this morning:

 

According to ESPN’s win-probability model, Zimmer’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning was a wash. The Vikings had a 98% chance to win by going for it and would have had a 97.8% chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal.

 

(So, we are probably all debating over nothing— except maybe the fact that it wasn’t a bad decision to go for it). 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

was just reading this on ESPN this morning:

 

According to ESPN’s win-probability model, Zimmer’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning was a wash. The Vikings had a 98% chance to win by going for it and would have had a 97.8% chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal.

 

(So, we are probably all debating over nothing— except maybe the fact that it wasn’t a bad decision to go for it). 

 

Interesting. Thanks.

[mannc]

21 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

was just reading this on ESPN this morning:

 

According to ESPN’s win-probability model, Zimmer’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning was a wash. The Vikings had a 98% chance to win by going for it and would have had a 97.8% chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal.

 

(So, we are probably all debating over nothing— except maybe the fact that it wasn’t a bad decision to go for it). 

A poster up thread said that either decision by Zimmer would have been proper, and that seems to be the right way to look at it.
 

Looked at another way, their odds of losing would have increased by 10 percent if they had kicked the FG.

Edited October 12, 2020 by mannc

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That was my feeling too. I know the maths probably disagrees, likelihood of getting 1 yard etc... but in my head if I go for it I am giving myself one way to win the game. I have to get it. If I kick the FG I am giving myself a chance to win the game by stopping the 2 pointer and even if I fail both the worst I have is OT. Maybe that is playing not to lose, I don't know but it just felt instantly like the wrong call to me.

 

 

If @Mr. WEO, @eball and myself are all in agreement (I reckon that happens pretty rarely) then I think this proves they shoulda kicked the FG

 

I don't believe it is.  It's building an forbidding lead that will likely win the game, at worst allow a tie in regulation. 

 

It was an unnecessary risk  Kick it, they can at most tie you with 8 points, miss it they beat you with 7.  It wasted their best effort so far, I think.  Just dumb.

[wjag]

I know a lot is being made about the 4th and inches, but the reality is Minnesota has Seattle down to 4th down TWICE on that final drive and allowed a first down and then a TD.  Stop the first one and the decision looks a whole lot better.  

[Mr. WEO]

34 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

was just reading this on ESPN this morning:

 

According to ESPN’s win-probability model, Zimmer’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning was a wash. The Vikings had a 98% chance to win by going for it and would have had a 97.8% chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal.

 

(So, we are probably all debating over nothing— except maybe the fact that it wasn’t a bad decision to go for it). 

 

98% chance to get the first down?  98% of scoring a TD on 4th down?  98% to subsequently score a TD after 1st down? 98% chance if they go up by 8 they would stop Seattle from scoring 8 in under 2 minutes with?

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

98% chance to get the first down?  98% of scoring a TD on 4th down?  98% to subsequently score a TD after 1st down? 98% chance if they go up by 8 they would stop Seattle from scoring 8 in under 2 minutes with?

 

 

I was going to say something similar. These stats stop short. I may be a total math dunce— but are the stats different to figure out the odds of Seattle winning if minn is up by 8 at that point? 

[bobobonators]

No one in their right mind watching that game yesterday felt Russel Wilson had a 2% chance of winning that game when they got the ball back. Thats where all these analytic numbers fall short. 
 

Maybe the Jets wouldve had a 2% chance of winning. 

Edited October 12, 2020 by bobobonators

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

No one in their right mind watching that game yesterday felt Russel Wilson had a 2% chance of winning that game when they got the ball back. Thats where all these analytic numbers fall short. 
 

Maybe the Jets wouldve had a 2% chance of winning. 

That not what the analytics said.  Perfect example of a “straw man” argument.

[bobobonators]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

That not what the analytics said.  Perfect example of a “straw man” argument.

My apologies. I was going by the post a few above mine that referenced that number. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

“ESPN’s win probability model”; perhaps not analytics per se. 

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That was my feeling too. I know the maths probably disagrees, likelihood of getting 1 yard etc... but in my head if I go for it I am giving myself one way to win the game. I have to get it. If I kick the FG I am giving myself a chance to win the game by stopping the 2 pointer and even if I fail both the worst I have is OT. Maybe that is playing not to lose, I don't know but it just felt instantly like the wrong call to me.

 

 

If @Mr. WEO, @eball and myself are all in agreement (I reckon that happens pretty rarely) then I think this proves they shoulda kicked the FG

 

I totally agree and will take it a step further.  What was the point of kicking the extra point on the previous drive - if not to give yourself this exact scenario to go up by 8.  
 

The earlier TD - the Vikings had a choice.  Up 4 do you go for 2 or 1.  1 puts you in a position to kick a field goal and go up by 8 and you are playing for at worst a tie. 
 

Going for 2 puts you either up by 6 or based upon earlier attempts - most likely up by 4.  If 6 - the FG wins.  If 4 - you have still have a shot at a loss.

 

For me the scenarios unfold as:

Up by 4 - failed 2 point - I am going for it like The Vikings did because the Seahawks have a history of scoring and not being afraid to go for 2.  I do not want them to have the ball and 7 points is not safe.

 

Up by 5 - kicked the XP - this is the scenario that played out and you kick the FG to go up by 8 - you ensure you can’t lose in regulation and you force Seattle to score and get the 2.  I am also playing more aggressive because if Seattle goes over the top and scores quickly - I may still have a shot to get the ball back with worse case being a tie and OT.

 

Up by 6 - converted the 2 pt - you again kick and go up by 2 scores.
 

The issue I have is the Vikings played middle ball earlier with the XP to create the tie scenario and then didn’t follow the same thought process later on and it cost them the game.  If you played for 1 earlier - you were playing for a FG and 8 points later on.

 

 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I get it the maths says the most likely way of winning is picking up 6 inches. I don't care. I want to give myself the three hoops over the one. I appreciate the maths would be against me but football is played with humans not numbers. My gut instantly said "wrong call" before I even knew what play they were running.

Yep,  I agree with this. As you pointed out, Seattle would have had to score twice. Minny took the high risk-high reward option and paid for it. 

[Royale with Cheese]

So was Jimmy G legitimately benched or pulled because of his injury?