What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[TroutDog]

 Apologies if this has been discussed as I haven’t read the entire thread. 
 

I just went back and watched the pre-draft videos of Josh. I can tell you of one person who was very high on Josh and that was Mel Kiper. Him and, obviously, Beane and the Bills.

 

I suspect some are better at looking at the entire picture than others, including intangibles, that others don’t have. In other words, some people fall for the hype as opposed to what could be in the right circumstances. 

 

To be honest, I suspect this was the same for Gabriel Davis and, possibly, Isaiah Hodgins. Beane (and/or his staff) seems to have an ability to grasp who the player was in addition to who they will be in McDermott’s system. 
 

This organization is so many light years ahead of where we were it’s not even funny. 

[Putin]

20 minutes ago, FieldGeneral said:

My make or break test is NE and KC. We will see how he reacts when he sees defenses that change and run formations that he isn't used to. 

Obviously he’s/ Allen is not a finished product by any means and there will be bumps along the way , but as long as he learns from his mistakes and keeps getting better I have no doubt that he will be a top 5 QB in this league 

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

 Apologies if this has been discussed as I haven’t read the entire thread. 
 

I just went back and watched the pre-draft videos of Josh. I can tell you of one person who was very high on Josh and that was Mel Kiper. Him and, obviously, Beane and the Bills.

 

I suspect some are better at looking at the entire picture than others, including intangibles, that others don’t have. In other words, some people fall for the hype as opposed to what could be in the right circumstances. 

 

To be honest, I suspect this was the same for Gabriel Davis and, possibly, Isaiah Hodgins. Beane (and/or his staff) seems to have an ability to grasp who the player was in addition to who they will be in McDermott’s system. 
 

This organization is so many light years ahead of where we were it’s not even funny. 

 

 

They made the right decision drafting the QB with the highest ceiling.    It's the most important position in sports.    Good ones are nice,  truly great ones can be organization changers.    The Bills didn't need a good QB, they needed one who might be able to help them get a stadium built and expand their fan base.  

 

Allen's ceiling was always very high.   He would have been the top pick in more drafts than not if he were available in any since the SB era began.   He was a beast on the hoof and had excellent intangibles.  

 

But keep in mind that the following spring.........desperate for weapons to help his young QB..........Beane passed on the highest ceiling WR in a decade when he chose a guard prospect to fill a "need" at right tackle.   Drafting to patch immediate holes isn't light years ahead..........it's right out of the Bill O'Brien/Rex Ryan-save-my-ass manual.  And Metcalf wasn't an unsung prospect.......this was after an offseason where there was much speculation about the excellent fit of talents between DK Metcalf and Josh Allen......including by Allen himself.   That one was right in front of their nose.    

 

If they had made that move they are probably the AFC favorite right now.

 

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They made the right decision drafting the QB with the highest ceiling.    It's the most important position in sports.    Good ones are nice,  truly great ones can be organization changers.    The Bills didn't need a good QB, they needed one who might be able to help them get a stadium built and expand their fan base.  

 

Allen's ceiling was always very high.   He would have been the top pick in more drafts than not if he were available in any since the SB era began.   He was a beast on the hoof and had excellent intangibles.  

 

But keep in mind that the following spring.........desperate for weapons to help his young QB..........Beane passed on the highest ceiling WR in a decade when he chose a guard prospect to fill a "need" at right tackle.   Drafting to patch immediate holes isn't light years ahead..........it's right out of the Bill O'Brien/Rex Ryan-save-my-ass manual.  And Metcalf wasn't an unsung prospect.......this was after an offseason where there was much speculation about the excellent fit of talents between DK Metcalf and Josh Allen......including by Allen himself.   That one was right in front of their nose.    

 

If they had made that move they are probably the AFC favorite right now.

 

They had made significant moves at WR bringing in Brown, and Beasley. I think they were hoping for more from Zay Jones and Robert Foster. The O-Line was also a massive issue that needed addressing. Plus this years draft class was full of great WR talent.

Edited October 3, 2020 by Warcodered

[WideNine]

2 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

 Apologies if this has been discussed as I haven’t read the entire thread. 
 

I just went back and watched the pre-draft videos of Josh. I can tell you of one person who was very high on Josh and that was Mel Kiper. Him and, obviously, Beane and the Bills.

 

I suspect some are better at looking at the entire picture than others, including intangibles, that others don’t have. In other words, some people fall for the hype as opposed to what could be in the right circumstances. 

 

To be honest, I suspect this was the same for Gabriel Davis and, possibly, Isaiah Hodgins. Beane (and/or his staff) seems to have an ability to grasp who the player was in addition to who they will be in McDermott’s system. 
 

This organization is so many light years ahead of where we were it’s not even funny. 

 

 

Ol' Mel can be off more than his hair will ever be, but he was high on Allen and was taking plenty of heat for it.

 

So many intangibles go into a raw QB with potential transforming into a legit NFL franchise QB... I was thinking back to Brady's mentoring and how he learned the game at the feet of Charlie Weis and how he ran the Erhardt-Perkins and later the Air-Erhardt offense with motion formations, multiple receiver sets, and empty backfields and now if you think about it, much of that offensive philosophy is in Daboll's system that Allen is absorbing and putting into practice on the field.

 

He is in a great place to grow and so many things could have gone differently in the 2018 draft..... if the Browns had not gone Mayfield, and the Giants had not gone the Saquon route, and the Jets had not taken Darnold, and if Indy had any inkling that Luck was planning on retiring right before their 2019 training camp. It is like all of our Bills bad Karma just rolled to a stop and the universe tipped the scales in the other direction just enough for Beane and company to be able to get the QB they wanted.

 

Going back and listening to Beane's early comments about Allen in this 2018 post draft interview - damn, we have a very good GM folks. He may even be smarter than math itself

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

They had made significant moves at WR bringing in Brown, and Beasley. I think they were hoping for more from Zay Jones and Robert Foster. The O-Line was also a massive issue that needed addressing. Plus this years draft class was full of great WR talent.

 

 

Every team that passed on Allen could have made the same type of excuses as to why they passed on a highly unusual talent.   

 

You don't pass on a potential Calvin Johnson type mismatch because you signed a couple late 20 somethings who had combined for a handful of seasons over 700 yards receiving in their decade+ in the league.    

 

That's patchin' holes..........not swinging for the fences.     They were rewarded with a pretty bad offense.

 

Fortune favors the bold.   Guys like Cody Ford..........hell just about ANY right tackle or guard.......are easily replaceable......be it by scheme or in free agency etc.. 

 

It was a moment of weakness for Beane and hopefully a learning experience.

 

He was much more aggressive with his draft chips this year.

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

54 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Every team that passed on Allen could have made the same type of excuses as to why they passed on a highly unusual talent.   

 

You don't pass on a potential Calvin Johnson type mismatch because you signed a couple late 20 somethings who had combined for a handful of seasons over 700 yards receiving in their decade+ in the league.    

 

That's patchin' holes..........not swinging for the fences.     They were rewarded with a pretty bad offense.

 

Fortune favors the bold.   Guys like Cody Ford..........hell just about ANY right tackle or guard.......are easily replaceable......be it by scheme or in free agency etc.. 

 

It was a moment of weakness for Beane and hopefully a learning experience.

 

He was much more aggressive with his draft chips this year.

 

 

Where the hell have you been?

[K-9]

5 hours ago, LanderPoke said:

Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE, is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill, the RB, who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry, the WR, saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

Rare. Arm. Talent.

[TroutDog]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They made the right decision drafting the QB with the highest ceiling.    It's the most important position in sports.    Good ones are nice,  truly great ones can be organization changers.    The Bills didn't need a good QB, they needed one who might be able to help them get a stadium built and expand their fan base.  

 

Allen's ceiling was always very high.   He would have been the top pick in more drafts than not if he were available in any since the SB era began.   He was a beast on the hoof and had excellent intangibles.  

 

But keep in mind that the following spring.........desperate for weapons to help his young QB..........Beane passed on the highest ceiling WR in a decade when he chose a guard prospect to fill a "need" at right tackle.   Drafting to patch immediate holes isn't light years ahead..........it's right out of the Bill O'Brien/Rex Ryan-save-my-ass manual.  And Metcalf wasn't an unsung prospect.......this was after an offseason where there was much speculation about the excellent fit of talents between DK Metcalf and Josh Allen......including by Allen himself.   That one was right in front of their nose.    

 

If they had made that move they are probably the AFC favorite right now.

 

I appreciate your thoughts but saying one right decision negates another is short sighted: QB is the ONE decision and they absolutely nailed it. 
 

Also, in my opinion, they knew where Ford was going to excel the entire time. 

It also seems that you aren’t keeping in mind their grand plan: to purge contracts that didn’t fit their DNA. 

 

Managing a team in the NFL is not simply a case of ‘this guy takes us to the SB and this guy doesn’t’ in my opinion. The nuances are radical and critical. 
 

If you view it otherwise (you clearly do), understood. I don’t. This regime is phenomenal. 

[Coach Tuesday]

4 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

I appreciate your thoughts but saying one right decision negates another is short sighted: QB is the ONE decision and they absolutely nailed it. 
 

Also, in my opinion, they knew where Ford was going to excel the entire time. 

It also seems that you aren’t keeping in mind their grand plan: to purge contracts that didn’t fit their DNA. 

 

Managing a team in the NFL is not simply a case of ‘this guy takes us to the SB and this guy doesn’t’ in my opinion. The nuances are radical and critical. 
 

If you view it otherwise (you clearly do), understood. I don’t. This regime is phenomenal. 

If you’re saying they knew at the time they drafted Ford that he was a guard - then the pick was even worse.  You don’t waste a 2nd on an above-average guard, you can find those in the clearance aisle.

[atlbillsfan1975]

If you knew Josh’s story and coupled it with his physical talent and Sean’s demeanor, it had a good chance of working out. Just like Russell and Carroll or Brady and Belichick, it was the right fit. 

Edited October 3, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[TroutDog]

21 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

If you’re saying they knew at the time they drafted Ford that he was a guard - then the pick was even worse.  You don’t waste a 2nd on an above-average guard, you can find those in the clearance aisle.

Fair enough, assuming what he is now is all he will ever be. 
 

Was Josh worth it at pick seven understanding that it would take a few years to come to fruition?

18 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

If you knew Josh’s story and coupled it with his physical talent and Sean’s demeanor, it had a good chance of working out. Just like Russell and Carroll or Brady and Belichick was the right fit. 

Yup. I was too verbose saying the same as it applies to so many picks. 

[Ralonzo]

4 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

 

 

These media jackals. I had almost forgotten. It's so infuriating.

Edited October 3, 2020 by Ralonzo

[Big Blitz]

What everyone missed was the moxie, smarts, and leadership.  They were too busy micro analyzing every bad throw and therefore couldn't properly analyze the big picture in 2018.  And that his college completion percentage meant he wasn't accurate.  Yea.  I guess when you run offenses that don't focus on screen after WR screen or rather then check down you're looking downfield for someone to make a play.  Constantly.  

 

They did the same thing in 2019.  Instead of the growth shown on how "accurate" he became on the 10 - 15 yard throws he struggled with as a rookie, it was "yea but did you see that deep ball he missed."  Lol ok good analysis WGR am and pm guys.  How about this as analysis.  Let me check my dates here; yep he's only 6 months older than Joe Burrow.  Josh just turned 24 in May.  Maybe it's a little bit different a game now, but Russell Wilson's rookie year he was 24.  He didn't throw for over 3500 yards until year 4 when he was 27. Completion % first 3 seasons was 63%

 

So the best part of all this is that he is still nowhere close to his ceiling.  They'll still be rough patches.  Who is to say a half like that vs the Rams doesn't last an entire game...of course they'll be duds. 

 

But you know what?  In his last 19 games....outside of the 4 INT game vs NE, he really hasn't had any.  Games where he wasn't very good?  Sure.  But nothing where you said, wow this was horrific and he was why we lost (which we haven't done much of since the last 6 games in 2018).  Maybe the Eagles game?  Ravens?  But never once did I feel like he was overwhelmed the way Baker looked last year, Darnold does this year (and large chunks of last season), and how Lamar looked at home Monday night.  I'm just saying we never had any reason or were shown any reason to panic.  Ever.

 

Enjoy the ride. 

Edited October 3, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Chicken Boo]

18 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

True but only a small percentage refused to be open minded and give him a chance to improve. That's what bothers me about some of these analysts. It isn't what they thought about him pre-draft, it's about their inability to change their mind even when he clearly showed progress.

 

Fair enough.

[Albany,n.y.]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Every team that passed on Allen could have made the same type of excuses as to why they passed on a highly unusual talent.   

 

You don't pass on a potential Calvin Johnson type mismatch because you signed a couple late 20 somethings who had combined for a handful of seasons over 700 yards receiving in their decade+ in the league.    

 

That's patchin' holes..........not swinging for the fences.     They were rewarded with a pretty bad offense.

 

Fortune favors the bold.   Guys like Cody Ford..........hell just about ANY right tackle or guard.......are easily replaceable......be it by scheme or in free agency etc.. 

 

It was a moment of weakness for Beane and hopefully a learning experience.

 

He was much more aggressive with his draft chips this year.

 

 

Sorry, but when you are knocking Beane for not taking a guy who was the last pick in the 2nd round who turned out to be the 9th WR taken in the draft and comparing his draft status to the 7th overall pick & the 3rd QB taken, you lose all credibility.  

Fans from every team could post the same thing based on how Metcalf is playing.  You can do the same thing whenever a guy gets overlooked by just about every GM & turns out to be a good to great player.

I repeat 9th WR, last pick of the 2nd round.

Somewhere in NY there's a Jets fan saying the Jets GM blew it by not drafting Gabe Davis before we did.   

You can do this every draft.  Why didn't we draft Brady in the 5th round? 

Just because you felt strongly about a player who the Bills didn't draft & you were right about his talent when no NFL GM thought of him as highly as you did, doesn't make you GM material. 

I trust Beane's judgement over any poster on this board 24/7.  

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 9/30/2020 at 5:56 PM, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

 

Laser rocket arm, great athleticism and most importantly leadership and work ethic.

 

 

[bigduke6]

havent read the whole thread so forgive me if im repeating anything.

 

the "experts".   arent.   they guess. 

 

on the outside Josh looked like crap in college.    he was on a crappy team,  he made bonehead plays,  but he had the "tools" to be an nfl caliber QB.

 

peeps usually dont like things that arent shiny.   Josh wasnt shiny.    he was covered in dirt,  stuck in a place nobody respected. 

 

if u dont come through one of the CFB powerhouses,  peeps tend to be overlooked.

 

Josh had nothing in his college resume that said,   "sure thing".    the experts edged towards the cautious side.   hedged their bets,  and im glad they were wrong.

[Shaw66]

Character.

 

They missed his desire, his competitiveness, his brains. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Amazing how this board can flip from he sucks to he is the best in the league after 3 games  

Allen was my top choice in the 2018 draft. 

Allen has played great so far in 2020. But he is still a work in progress. He just played 3 of the 5 easiest games on the schedule this year and we have still not seen him correct his fumbling. And we also saw bad hero ball again.  Let's give it a few more weeks so we know for certain he has truly arrived.

 

As for draft experts, there is no such thing. And that goes for Beane too. It's a lottery. It's a crap shoot.  

[Punching Bag]

16 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

These media jackals. I had almost forgotten. It's so infuriating.

 

Beane made a comment on Josh: Nobody we spoke to had anything bad to say about Josh

Full comment: Nobody we spoke to had anything bad to say about Josh other than members of media whose opinion we did not factor in since they have never worked in a front office or on sideline.

[BADOLBILZ]

19 hours ago, TroutDog said:

I appreciate your thoughts but saying one right decision negates another is short sighted: QB is the ONE decision and they absolutely nailed it. 
 

Also, in my opinion, they knew where Ford was going to excel the entire time. 

It also seems that you aren’t keeping in mind their grand plan: to purge contracts that didn’t fit their DNA. 

 

Managing a team in the NFL is not simply a case of ‘this guy takes us to the SB and this guy doesn’t’ in my opinion. The nuances are radical and critical. 
 

If you view it otherwise (you clearly do), understood. I don’t. This regime is phenomenal. 

 

 

Thanks to the Bills embedded series.........where we see/hear Beane verbally covet and then pursue the trade-up for Ford because "we need a right tackle" we actually know that you are wrong about that.

 

[Ralonzo]

42 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Beane made a comment on Josh: Nobody we spoke to had anything bad to say about Josh

Full comment: Nobody we spoke to had anything bad to say about Josh other than members of media whose opinion we did not factor in since they have never worked in a front office or on sideline.

 

I was mostly referring to, the tweet was the first thing they asked about. And the second. And the third. And then some other stuff, and then back to it. And then a little other stuff, and back to an asked-and-answered ad nauseum bunch of *****-stirring.

[Punching Bag]

Just now, Ralonzo said:

 

I was mostly referring to, the tweet was the first thing they asked about. And the second. And the third. And then some other stuff, and then back to it. And then a little other stuff, and back to an asked-and-answered ad nauseum bunch of *****-stirring.

 

Yes,  they need to draw a line.  We have covered topic and we only have so much time - any other questions.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Sorry, but when you are knocking Beane for not taking a guy who was the last pick in the 2nd round who turned out to be the 9th WR taken in the draft and comparing his draft status to the 7th overall pick & the 3rd QB taken, you lose all credibility.  

Fans from every team could post the same thing based on how Metcalf is playing.  You can do the same thing whenever a guy gets overlooked by just about every GM & turns out to be a good to great player.

I repeat 9th WR, last pick of the 2nd round.

Somewhere in NY there's a Jets fan saying the Jets GM blew it by not drafting Gabe Davis before we did.   

You can do this every draft.  Why didn't we draft Brady in the 5th round? 

Just because you felt strongly about a player who the Bills didn't draft & you were right about his talent when no NFL GM thought of him as highly as you did, doesn't make you GM material. 

I trust Beane's judgement over any poster on this board 24/7.  

 

 

Credibility?😆

 

I've been calling it about as close to dead-on as possible for two decades on this site.

 

Including liking all of Beane and McD's first round picks(the players) from the get go............though Edmunds ain't going to make me look good if they continue to use him as a MLB and don't give him a shot to be a star on the edge. 

 

I'm sorry but the "well other teams passed on Mahomes and Metcalf" stuff just isn't the feather in the cap that some of you think it is.

 

One team wins the SB every year.

 

The margin of error is huge for fielding a competitive 8-10 win team every year......you can be wrong a lot.

 

It gets tighter at the top.

 

Unless, of course, your coaching staff includes Bill Belichick,   in which case you can draft like sh*t and still beat his'n with your'n.

 

[TroutDog]

30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Thanks to the Bills embedded series.........where we see/hear Beane verbally covet and then pursue the trade-up for Ford because "we need a right tackle" we actually know that you are wrong about that.

 

 

Possibly. He may have also said that as he was recognized as a decent lineman and then they’ll see. 
 

Totally get it if anyone disagrees. 

[Protocal69]

20 hours ago, K-9 said:

Rare. Arm. Talent.

That was the play that had me sold on Josh Allen

[Hapless Bills Fan]

28 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

I was mostly referring to, the tweet was the first thing they asked about. And the second. And the third. And then some other stuff, and then back to it. And then a little other stuff, and back to an asked-and-answered ad nauseum bunch of *****-stirring.

 

I'm curious, I read someone on here recently say it's thought the Arizona Cardinals leaked those tweets.  If so, it must have been in an attempt to shy the Bills off of him.

 

Is there a source or story on this?

 

I did enquire of my friend, Mr Google, and got nothing, but I did find this gem:

https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2018/5/8/17329316/the-arizona-cardinals-were-never-in-on-josh-allen-because-of-the-price

 

"Did the Cardinals like Allen, yes.  Did Keim get a pint of Cherry Garcia, go sit in a corner and sob while watching the first half of the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl? No, he drafted the better player. Allegedly, the one the Cardinals liked better."

 

Heh.  That Aged Well.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

 

Possibly. He may have also said that as he was recognized as a decent lineman and then they’ll see. 
 

Totally get it if anyone disagrees. 

 

 

I can only guess you did not see series.

 

That he saw Ford as the answer to their right tackle woes is not in question.

 

In Beane's defense he turned around and picked up Ty Nsekhe and Daryl Williams in UFA and at least half the league would love to have them at RT when healthy.

 

The reality is that even though Beane seems to have a good head on his shoulders he is still susceptible to reaching for needs in the draft in the heat of the moment.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm curious, I read someone on here recently say it's thought the Arizona Cardinals leaked those tweets.  If so, it must have been in an attempt to shy the Bills off of him.

 

Is there a source or story on this?

 

Maybe, but I never saw one. I think it was just speculation, like so much other “info” around the draft. 

[K-9]

41 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:

That was the play that had me sold on Josh Allen

Imagine being one of people on the Bills staff whose task it was to break down EVERY snap he took in college and scrutinize it to the Nth degree? I imagine they saw plenty such throws. I imagine they were reminded when they saw Allen hit Beasley on that 3rd and 22 

last Sunday. There are just a few people on the planet capable of doing that. 

[Albany,n.y.]

53 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Nobody 

Credibility?😆

 

I've been calling it about as close to dead-on as possible for two decades on this site.

 

Including liking all of Beane and McD's first round picks(the players) from the get go............though Edmunds ain't going to make me look good if they continue to use him as a MLB and don't give him a shot to be a star on the edge. 

 

I'm sorry but the "well other teams passed on Mahomes and Metcalf" stuff just isn't the feather in the cap that some of you think it is.

 

One team wins the SB every year.

 

The margin of error is huge for fielding a competitive 8-10 win team every year......you can be wrong a lot.

 

It gets tighter at the top.

 

Unless, of course, your coaching staff includes Bill Belichick,   in which case you can draft like sh*t and still beat his'n with your'n.

 

Wow! How could the Bills be so stupid to have picked Beane over you after Whaley got fired?   Your credibility sinks even lower when you post nonsense like this. Nobody has been dead on as possible (whatever that means) about anything for the last 20 years.   You were right because you agreed with Beane, but you were also right when you disagreed with Beane's 2nd round pick.  Guess what, I'd rather have Diggs and Ford than Metcalf.  Beane saw an O-line need last year & went for it after signing 2 WRs.  Then this year he went for  an established #1 WR.  You don't usually dial up #1 WRs at the end of the 2nd round.  If you're so good send your resume & posts from the last 20 years to the Jets.  They need someone who claims to be as good as you. 

[dakrider]

Compare Josh Allen coming out of college to DeMarcus Russell (for those who remember him. 2007 first draft choice by Raiders) 

Russell had about every physical gift you could hope for in a quarterback yet he failed miserably.  And the biggest reason he failed is he simply wasn't interested in putting in the time and work to be a NFL QB.  Thats the thing you can't really gauge well as a scout.  
Whereas Allen was a raw prospect and by all accounts really shouldn't have lasted this long, mostly because he didn't get to sit behind a capable veteran for a year and learn how to be a NFL QB.  He got thrown in way too early with a terrible corp or receivers and was forced to improvise just to survive.   And he learned from that experience whereas many might have wilted and now he's looking like he's mastered the craft of NFL QB.  

[ganesh]

On 10/1/2020 at 4:06 AM, Warcodered said:

I think where they missed was that they looked at the results of all the problems Josh had and not the causes. Surrounding cast, inexperience, and mechanics these were all problems Josh had but they were all fixable. Beane did look and with those fixable problems and with his incredible physical talent and drive he was a project worth working on.

The biggest takeaway in Billicks book on 2018 draft class about Josh Allen -   Everyone thought it was insurmountable for Josh to improve his accuracy.  It has never happened in the NFL!

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Character.

 

They missed his desire, his competitiveness, his brains. 

which is the same thing the NFL missed when allowing Brady to slide to the 6th Round.

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, ganesh said:

which is the same thing the NFL missed when allowing Brady to slide to the 6th Round.

That's interesting.  You're right.  

 

 

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

On 9/30/2020 at 10:16 PM, Nihilarian said:

"Allen will play well in an offense that emphasizes play action, moving pockets, and deep passing. He’ll struggle if he starts right away, unless coaches simplify his reads and emphasize his option to check down. He should head to a team with an established veteran so he can learn the ropes, otherwise his potential may never manifest on Sundays."

 

This projection is really effing spot-on. 

 

Of course the Bills got the "established veteran" part very wrong in 2018.

[Albany,n.y.]

On 10/3/2020 at 9:43 PM, dakrider said:

Compare Josh Allen coming out of college to DeMarcus Russell (for those who remember him. 2007 first draft choice by Raiders) 

Russell had about every physical gift you could hope for in a quarterback yet he failed miserably.  And the biggest reason he failed is he simply wasn't interested in putting in the time and work to be a NFL QB.  Thats the thing you can't really gauge well as a scout.  
Whereas Allen was a raw prospect and by all accounts really shouldn't have lasted this long, mostly because he didn't get to sit behind a capable veteran for a year and learn how to be a NFL QB.  He got thrown in way too early with a terrible corp or receivers and was forced to improvise just to survive.   And he learned from that experience whereas many might have wilted and now he's looking like he's mastered the craft of NFL QB.  

Russell was always lazy & never was going to make it in the NFL with his attitude.  I've seen stories about Ryan Leaf pre & post draft that also showed him to have a bad attitude.  One thing with Allen. Nobody ever found his attitude during the draft process to be anything but top notch, especially in his 3 pre-draft visits with the Bills.  Here's a gem I found about Russell's interview with Detroit: 

 

In 2015, Matt Millen said in a radio interview that he warned former Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis not to draft Russell in 2007. According to Millen, Russell struggled to pay attention during a pre-draft interview in his office during a visit to Detroit which had the No. 2 pick that year to the point where Millen kicked Russell out after he kept looking down at his watch.

"I keep talking to him, I ask him questions and he looks at his watch," Millen said. "I said, 'You got some place you need to be?' And he goes, 'Oh, no, no, no. I'm sorry. Sorry, sir.' So I ask him another question, he looks at his watch and I said, 'You're done, get out of here." Millen said he then told Russell to go to see head coach Rod Marinelli, who later also told Russell to leave his office. "So I'm done, I can't believe what I just witnessed, and so I call Al," Millen said, "I get on the phone and I say, 'Coach, I don't know what you're thinking, but don't take JaMarcus Russell. Don't take Calvin Johnson, but don't take JaMarcus Russell.

 

[Albany,n.y.]

I think I found the biggest epic fail of all the pre-draft columns:  https://primetimesportstalk.com/2018/03/05/connon-hypocrisy-reigns-in-the-nfl-draft-qb-conversation/

 

There are two quarterbacks in this year’s draft class who will emerge as stars, without question—UCLA’s Josh Rosen and USC’s Sam Darnold.

 

There are mock drafts that have Allen going No. 1 and Mayfield going No. 5, with Darnold and Rosen potentially falling out of the top 10. If any team passes on those two for Allen or Mayfield, that team should be dissolved.

'

In all honesty, I pray that the scouts for the teams at the top of the draft don’t overlook them too. They are generational talents, and much more suited for the NFL game than Mayfield or Allen—and don’t even get me started on Lamar Jackson.

 

Talk to me in a year, or maybe in five years, or ten. When Rosen and Darnold are taking over the league while Allen and Mayfield have faded into obscurity, I’ll be here, giving everyone a nice dose of “told you so” for good measure.

Edited October 5, 2020 by Albany,n.y.

[The Old Man]

If the so called "draft experts" are truly experts then why have some of their top rated draft prospects been busts?