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What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?


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9 hours ago, K-9 said:

This. It’s important for people to separate “draft experts” and the actual pro scouts and GMs, who had Allen pegged as a 1st round pick BEFORE his final college season. He displayed the great arm, running ability, athleticism, and “dog” determination on the field that we’ve all seen since his rookie year when he was in school and, more importantly, blew everyone away in interviews. 

 

Absolutely.  The vast majority of "draft experts" wouldn't even know which top prospects to start reviewing, if it wasn't for discussions and buzz coming from the professional scouting community.  Nobody even heard of Josh Allen, until the pro guys started talking him up.

 

The sports media also loves talking about highly-touted picks that bust (such as Jamarcus Russell), and late-round picks that surprise and do well (such as Tom Brady).  This creates the false narrative that GMs/pro scouts are fools, and don't know what they are doing - or that drafting is like throwing a dart blindfolded.

 

The truth is, the pro scouts do an excellent job.

Looking at a position like QB, they usually start each year with DOZENS of eligible prospects from all over the country.  By the time the draft actually rolls around, that list has been narrowed down to about 5-6 guys who have a chance at being a successful starter in the NFL.  That group further breaks down into 2-3 first round guys, and 2-3 riskier guys who are considered Day 2 prospects.  Looking at NFL rosters, about 70-75% of the league's starting QBs are those guys originally pegged as "first round talents" and 90-95% are guys the pro scouts picked in the first two days.  That's a huge hit rate.

 

 

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17 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Ah yes, the same Iowa game where CJ Johnson dropped an easy bomb in the endzone.  Wasn't Allen's best game for sure, but the talent around him in 2017 compared to 2016 was like going from a Mercedes to a Ford Pinto.   Wyoming lost C (Redskins), WR (Bears), WR (Saints), TE (Patriots) and RB (Bengals) after the 2016 season.    The 2017 squad was bad yet he still managed to get them to a bowl game and win.

 

I always have a big college opener party & I had Wyoming on one of the TVs and watched most of that game.  I had a lot of money on Wyoming that day so I distinctly remember that game.  His decisions seemed late & he seemed really bothered that day by the Iowa pass rush.  But like you said he had no talent around him, especially playing a decent power 5 team.  He had similar problems against Oregon 2 weeks later when he went 9-24 for 64 yards and 1 int in a 49-13 loss.  That is when I really had doubts about Allen.

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Many salient points have been made by others in this thread, but another point may very well be that teams by and large no longer have any real desire to spend the required time and energy to coach up QBs like Josh Allen, or players in other positions for that matter, most GMs and coaches want the prepared food version,  because a lot of them can’t cook... 

 

Go Bills!!!

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23 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Who said that?  I missed it.

 

Someone said that Allen was kind of the test case for the validity of old-fashioned eyeballs and shoe soles scouting over modern analytics.  Some truth in that.

 

Cris Collinsworth who as an owner of PFF has "bought into" their stuff thus was down on Allen, said that he never understood why the Bills liked Allen until he met him in person before the Steelers game and saw how he lit up the room and the energy he had.  Then you could tell his firm conviction that the Bills were nuts was actually shaken.  Not gone, but  moved to a pile labeled "further review required".

 

 

 

 

I believe it was Daniel Jeremiah who said it. Mayock was also infatuated with Allen, this was before he was Oakland's GM.

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1 - draft “expert” is a stupid term anyways.  They miss all the time on players, especially qbs.  Nfl teams miss all the time as well.  If you fired any of these guys after their misses, none of them would exist.

 

2 - Allen was pretty much a consensus 1st round pick while not exactly dominating in college.  So they definitely believed in his skill set/ potential over production.

 

3 - speaking for myself, Allen is the type of prospect that rarely makes it.  Lack of production, especially at the level he played on and his completion %, have been major red flags for nfl success.  Again, it’s a huge guessing game with Qbs anyways but guys with Allen’s resume normally don’t amount to anything.  He is the exception rather than the norm.  
 

so I don’t think anyone really missed.  The guy the first couple of years was what he was hyped up to be.  A ton of potential but with some questionable plays/ decision making.  The Bills have done a great job developing around him and the guy worked his butt off, didn’t cry about his lack of respect like some fans do here, and kept improving.  All the credit goes to him.  I think as others have said, his heart might be his biggest strength.  Even with my doubts about him based on every other prospect like him, I loved everything about his character and work ethic.  He is a natural leader and has become a much better player in the nfl than he was in the MWC, which is absolutely insane.

 

Some fans are so angry and want everyone to apologize for doubting the guy. But it was very valid.  But if he keeps progressing and keeps this up, let’s just all the credit to Allen and the Bills.  They saw something special in this guy and will 99% of guys like him fail, he is the exception to the rule and i would evaluate the next prospect like him. Exactly the same.

 

Allen simply might be special and I’m extremely happy to be wrong in what he could be.

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Imo it comes down to stats and models projecting future success.  Many draft gurus have their own biasis and formulas projecting future success.  There was alot of chatter that Allen was the best option.  In most cases Wyoming was at a disadvantage at every position but Qb his last season.  Allens best was better than everybodys but elite of elite qbs in the NFL.  In a world of spread sets and 2 hand touch big 12 defense Allens numbers are shocking.  Like everything in todays day and age Allen became the perfect polarizing pick with confirmation bias on either side.  

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In Hollywood they talk about an actor or actress having IT, that undefinable quality that just naturally makes them a STAR.  Well, Josh Allen has that quality, not just on the field, but as a person.  "Process" and "Culture" aren't just buzzwords for McBeane: they actively select players who have that ITness, not only on the football field, but as people as well.

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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1 - draft “expert” is a stupid term anyways.  They miss all the time on players, especially qbs.  Nfl teams miss all the time as well.  If you fired any of these guys after their misses, none of them would exist.

 

2 - Allen was pretty much a consensus 1st round pick while not exactly dominating in college.  So they definitely believed in his skill set/ potential over production.

 

3 - speaking for myself, Allen is the type of prospect that rarely makes it.  Lack of production, especially at the level he played on and his completion %, have been major red flags for nfl success.  Again, it’s a huge guessing game with Qbs anyways but guys with Allen’s resume normally don’t amount to anything.  He is the exception rather than the norm.  
 

so I don’t think anyone really missed.  The guy the first couple of years was what he was hyped up to be.  A ton of potential but with some questionable plays/ decision making.  The Bills have done a great job developing around him and the guy worked his butt off, didn’t cry about his lack of respect like some fans do here, and kept improving.  All the credit goes to him.  I think as others have said, his heart might be his biggest strength.  Even with my doubts about him based on every other prospect like him, I loved everything about his character and work ethic.  He is a natural leader and has become a much better player in the nfl than he was in the MWC, which is absolutely insane.

 

Some fans are so angry and want everyone to apologize for doubting the guy. But it was very valid.  But if he keeps progressing and keeps this up, let’s just all the credit to Allen and the Bills.  They saw something special in this guy and will 99% of guys like him fail, he is the exception to the rule and i would evaluate the next prospect like him. Exactly the same.

 

Allen simply might be special and I’m extremely happy to be wrong in what he could be.

 

Do you feel better about yourself?

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On 10/1/2020 at 11:30 AM, Buffalo716 said:

He average over 100 yd per game at the juco level. Wyoming wanted to have a quarterback for 2 years not kill him

 

It was clear to me he would be a massive running threat

 

 

I never saw his JucCo film. And I have to believe his production at Wyoming held a lot more weight in his evaluation. Running threat? Yes. But I never thought he'd put up the greatest 6 game rushing performance the NFL had seen from a QB in his rookie year. Since surpassed by Lamar in 2019. 

 

Josh Allen has nearly developed into the total package as a QB. The arm of Mahomes, Body of Cam, rushing threat of Lamar. He's close to that unicorn.

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2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I never saw his JucCo film. And I have to believe his production at Wyoming held a lot more weight in his evaluation. Running threat? Yes. But I never thought he'd put up the greatest 6 game rushing performance the NFL had seen from a QB in his rookie year. Since surpassed by Lamar in 2019. 

 

Josh Allen has nearly developed into the total package as a QB. The arm of Mahomes, Body of Cam, rushing threat of Lamar. He's close to that unicorn.

Junior colleges in California are full of division 1 athletes. Josh was playing good ball in juco

 

And was averaging like 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards a game. His athletic ability was on full display

 

His running skills was definitely something that I was excited about

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It's the old "You can't coach precision" argument.

 

Josh was perceived by scouts as lacking precision. That was seen as reducing his reducing his draft value.

 

Fortunately, Josh has proven them wrong--you can coach precision. Tony Romo's advice to the effect of "your head is on stake through your torso" seems to have worked. Also footwork is better, he's planting his foot better and keeping it pointed downfield.

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Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE, is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill, the RB, who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry, the WR, saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

Edited by LanderPoke
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42 minutes ago, LanderPoke said:

Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill the RB who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry  the WR saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

 

Great video,

 

Something I never noticed before is that Wyoming has a great logo.  

Many of the NFL logos are too complicated in my opinion.  To hook in younger fans you want something simpler; I can remember drawing the standing buffalo as a kid.

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Just your friendly reminder that about 70% of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen prior to the draft.  

 

I always knew they'd pick Allen, even though I wasn't jazzed about it.  Isn't the first time and won't be the last that I've been wrong.  I thought Steph Curry was too slight of frame to be effective in the NBA.

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A Completely different Quarterback

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/a-completely-different-quarterback-nfl-analysts-draft-experts-revisit-josh-allen-projections/article_b405a13a-045b-11eb-8541-bbb14e5526d7.html

 

A good read of pre-draft analysis and now from several scouts/talking heads/etc.  Still a bunch of salt sprinkled in there from their view point now, no surprise.

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7 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Many salient points have been made by others in this thread, but another point may very well be that teams by and large no longer have any real desire to spend the required time and energy to coach up QBs like Josh Allen, or players in other positions for that matter, most GMs and coaches want the prepared food version,  because a lot of them can’t cook... 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

I think a lot of GMs and coaches want the prepared food version of key players, because the clock is ticking when they walk in the door and they're expected to win now.  The owners want the prepared food version of a winning team!

 

Owners who sign off on a complete gut-and-rebuild and basically give the coach a 4 year timeline for success are very rare.

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1 hour ago, LanderPoke said:

Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE, is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill, the RB, who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry, the WR, saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

 

The thing about Allen is that there are a bunch of QBs who can make those throws at the college level, especially against lower levels of competition.

 

Allen can actually make them in the NFL.

 

Though for the Love of Bison, Josh:

 

PLEASE stop running around the field waving the ball in one hand at full arm's length like a Seaworld keeper dangling a live herring over the Orca pools.  Sooner or later, Tillicum will rise up from the surf turf ***** it from you and take your arm with it, like as not.

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there are 4 or 5 players in Wyomings draft history that made it longterm the nfl.  Not exactly a hotbed.  Jay Novacek, Conrad Dobler, Jim Kick  I think that hurt him a lot.  I think the scouts weighed his college results a ton more than his combine numbers and eyeball test. He was my favorite of the 2018 qbs because I wanted the Bills to shoot for the moon.  Better to have a fast bust and go try again than be stuck with mediocrity for a 5 year cycle

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Good article in TBN about this 

 

 

A completely different quarterback': NFL analysts, draft experts revisit Josh Allen projections

 

This week, an apology form for Allen’s haters began circulating on social media.

The Buffalo News took it a few steps farther, reaching out to national NFL analysts and draft experts to compare their thoughts on Allen the prospect – before the Bills traded up to select him with the seventh overall pick in 2018 – and Allen the early season NFL MVP candidate, which he looks like today.

For some, it was an opportunity to take a victory lap. For others, a chance to explain themselves and atone for their sins.

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/a-completely-different-quarterback-nfl-analysts-draft-experts-revisit-josh-allen-projection/article_b405a13a-045b-11eb-8541-bbb14e5526d7.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

Edited by YoloinOhio
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1 hour ago, LanderPoke said:

Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE, is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill, the RB, who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry, the WR, saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

Also great in that video is Allen after nearly blows a big lead letting Utah get within 7. He promptly goes on like a 40yrd run and then hits an open man deep to get it back to 14.

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38 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

Just your friendly reminder that about 70% of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen prior to the draft.  

 

True but only a small percentage refused to be open minded and give him a chance to improve. That's what bothers me about some of these analysts. It isn't what they thought about him pre-draft, it's about their inability to change their mind even when he clearly showed progress.

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32 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Good article in TBN about this 

 

 

A completely different quarterback': NFL analysts, draft experts revisit Josh Allen projections

 

This week, an apology form for Allen’s haters began circulating on social media.

The Buffalo News took it a few steps farther, reaching out to national NFL analysts and draft experts to compare their thoughts on Allen the prospect – before the Bills traded up to select him with the seventh overall pick in 2018 – and Allen the early season NFL MVP candidate, which he looks like today.

For some, it was an opportunity to take a victory lap. For others, a chance to explain themselves and atone for their sins.

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/a-completely-different-quarterback-nfl-analysts-draft-experts-revisit-josh-allen-projection/article_b405a13a-045b-11eb-8541-bbb14e5526d7.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

 

My God, Kiper today sounds Salty like a Bills fan:

"They did everything in their power to keep him out of their conversation of one of the bright young quarterbacks in the league. They didn’t even mention Josh Allen, a lot of people, and I’d get sick and almost turn it off. It made me disgusted, because it was like they’d go out of their way to never mention Josh Allen’s name, and if they do it’s in a negative way."

“I think most of it is people didn’t like him coming out, and that’s the main thing. A lot of these people, I call them ‘ana-lie-tics.’ Analytics can lie. There are always outliers. So all the analytics people hated Josh Allen. I guess they’ll keep hating until they can’t hate anymore.”

 

LOL at Sam Momson.  I'm not quoting excerpts.  Read for yourself.  It's fully worthy of the guy whose colleagues told us Duck Hodges was a better QB.

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Did they miss this one?

It's pretty well classic.

"A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect...zero empirical evidence to suggest him becoming a reasonable NFL starting QB"

 

Now mind you, I'm of the "3 games, let's wait and see how it rolls through the season" school of thought, but he exceeded the "reasonable NFL starting QB" last year.

 

 

image.thumb.png.6365a64c35b504dd85552249f8b1ca1d.png

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Same guy from the site who said this:

 

 

Yeah, Schatz.  And if your model predicts something that actually happens as having a very low probability of happening, while things that your model predicts have a higher probability flame out, reasonable stats mavens look at their models and ask "did we actually get it right?"

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10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Did they miss this one?

It's pretty well classic.

"A parody of an NFL quarterback prospect...zero empirical evidence to suggest him becoming a reasonable NFL starting QB"

 

Now mind you, I'm of the "3 games, let's wait and see how it rolls through the season" school of thought, but he exceeded the "reasonable NFL starting QB" last year.

 

 

image.thumb.png.6365a64c35b504dd85552249f8b1ca1d.png

 

Yeah, Schatz.  And if your model predicts something that actually happens as having a very low probability of happening, while things that your model predicts have a higher probability flame out, reasonable stats mavens look at their models and ask "did we actually get it right?"

Mr Schatz the Bed? He just doesn’t want to be wrong, and I pray he is. Keep it up, Josh! 

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3 minutes ago, Augie said:

Mr Schatz the Bed? He just doesn’t want to be wrong, and I pray he is. Keep it up, Josh! 

The "I wasn't wrong" drum will be beat for years to come is my guess.  Allen could win the superbowl and be MVP and the come out the following season and have a crap first game and you'll see the "I TOLD YOU!" stuff.

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4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

The "I wasn't wrong" drum will be beat for years to come is my guess.  Allen could win the superbowl and be MVP and the come out the following season and have a crap first game and you'll see the "I TOLD YOU!" stuff.

 

Sam Momson will see a few statistical signs that he'll regress to the mean

 

Quack, Quack

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Sam Momson will see a few statistical signs that he'll regress to the mean

Exactly why I said "I wasn't wrong". 

 

They will pick every stat apart to find his shortcomings so they can say "I wasn't wrong". 

 

When you say "I was right" about anything you need proof beyond a doubt that you were.  At this point, very few have been right but they will point out they weren't wrong. 

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1 hour ago, DuckyBoys said:

there are 4 or 5 players in Wyomings draft history that made it longterm the nfl.  Not exactly a hotbed.  Jay Novacek, Conrad Dobler, Jim Kick  I think that hurt him a lot.  I think the scouts weighed his college results a ton more than his combine numbers and eyeball test. He was my favorite of the 2018 qbs because I wanted the Bills to shoot for the moon.  Better to have a fast bust and go try again than be stuck with mediocrity for a 5 year cycle

Khalil Mack went fourth overall from UB. Which has also had only a handful of guys stay in the league long term

 

It doesn't matter where you go

 

Universally most scouts saw the talent but knew he had a good amount to clean up.

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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My God, Kiper today sounds Salty like a Bills fan:

"They did everything in their power to keep him out of their conversation of one of the bright young quarterbacks in the league. They didn’t even mention Josh Allen, a lot of people, and I’d get sick and almost turn it off. It made me disgusted, because it was like they’d go out of their way to never mention Josh Allen’s name, and if they do it’s in a negative way."

“I think most of it is people didn’t like him coming out, and that’s the main thing. A lot of these people, I call them ‘ana-lie-tics.’ Analytics can lie. There are always outliers. So all the analytics people hated Josh Allen. I guess they’ll keep hating until they can’t hate anymore.”

 

LOL at Sam Momson.  I'm not quoting excerpts.  Read for yourself.  It's fully worthy of the guy whose colleagues told us Duck Hodges was a better QB.

Kiper took a lot of crap for it I think.

32 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Same guy from the site who said this:

 

I don't think you get to say "Allen is the battleground that old school scouts are going to die on," and just brush it aside when they seem to be right.

10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Sam Momson will see a few statistical signs that he'll regress to the mean

 

Quack, Quack

PFF on the week 4 predictions video I think talked about Allen being rated high on things that aren't really stable so will probably regress. But they did also say he was real high on the more stable ones as well so more even handed than usual.

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21 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This. They didn't miss at all. They were exactly on the money. 

 

They knew he had a very very high ceiling but was a developmental guy, and that development is unpredictable. Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't, but without question it takes time even if it works, and NFL teams would rather take a guy who will achieve his potential as soon as possible, all things being equal.

 

There were some doubters, there always are, but the consensus was he'd be a first rounder, high ceiling, would take time if he did develop.

 

 

This is fair. There are plenty of so-called draft experts out there and analysts that have shows and/or followers, but most scouting reports were high on Allen's potential and did not really sugar-coat that he was a project.

 

Just to show the disparity between a scouting approach and a draft analyst/commentator's approach - I just picked two at random. It is interesting what scouts focus on vs analysts... my opinionated take is that those who are more analysts and media personalities love to quote numbers, but numbers without context are not very meaningful. If you just look at the numbers, Allen has thrown an interception this year.

 

Draft analyst - Allen mostly red flags:

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/4/2/16913670/josh-allen-wyoming-nfl-draft-college-schedule-strength-opponents

 

Scout assessment from Dave-Te Thomas back in 2018:

https://www.bigblueview.com/2018/4/21/17264242/nfl-draft-report-josh-allen-cream-of-quarterback-crop-2018-nfl-draft-sam-darnold-josh-rosen

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Many of us heard what was being said about Josh, "great athlete, huge, big arm, a little raw" and were reminded of E.J. Manuel. I did not want another E.J. I was wrong. I was actually heartened by Josh's wonderlich score and thought he could learn an NFL offense. Accuracy was the issue. He has greatly improved with the help of Jordan Palmer and the Bills coaching staff.

The Josh Allen experience! Enjoy the ride.

 

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