What would/should a Milano extension look like?

[Long Suffering Fan]

7 minutes ago, nucci said:

it's not actual cash, it's the cap. Speculation it may drop to $175M next season. That plays a big part in this

 

Oops.  Nucci beat me to it.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

I viewed the title, and cringed upon speculation over what Sherlock Holmes is going to write.  ?

[nucci]

10 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

I'm just saying that I'd rather get 9m/y playing for competent organization from top to bottom under McD than for something like Jets under Gase or Raiders under Gruden for 11m/y or even 12m/y. I guess there is a chance that especially Milano thinks the same way. There are tons of people who make same decision in other professions (taking less in better working environment), and it should be actually easier decision when even the smaller amount sets you for life.

good point but if it's $9M  a year or $12m a year for multiple seasons, that's a lot of money to turn down

Edited August 14, 2020 by nucci

[thenorthremembers]

The extension itself will not be for anything less than $10 million dollars a year.   I know he isnt the most popular player on this board, but he is a good player, probably top 15 at his position.  Given the higher salary cap this year his extension probably looks something like 4 yrs/43.5million.  The good news is our front office is smart, so they will add money to the last year of his rookie deal and spread the remaining money over the last four years.  So essentially you'll get him at $9 million a year for five.

[LABILLBACKER]

As others have said, 3-4 years at no more than 7m per. He's good but not elite. His size still concerns me as he occasionally gets run over.

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I think expecting Milano to take $8M AAV when guys like Littleton and Schoebert are getting $11M is nuts.

 

I mean, Blake Martinez got $10M.

 

Milano is probably in the 10-12 range unless he takes a HUGE discount, which I suppose is possible given his unique “minimalist” nature, but it would surprise me.

 

This. 

[thenorthremembers]

11 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

As others have said, 3-4 years at no more than 7m per. He's good but not elite. His size still concerns me as he occasionally gets run over.

Anyone saying $7 million dollars a year or less grossly undervalues Milano.   For comparison sake, the Bills just paid AJ Klein, a 31 year old linebacker who most likely will play less than 60% of snaps on defense this year, $6 million per year.  Think what you want about Milano, but the guy is an every down linebacker, he played close to 90% of the defensive snaps last year despite missing a game, and was productive when he was on the field.   No way he gets paid $7 million a year as a max out.  If thats the offer he wont be on your team and its not like every down linebackers grow on trees, you also have to consider what they have behind him, which is next to nothing.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, thenorthremembers said:

Anyone saying $7 million dollars a year or less grossly undervalues Milano.   For comparison sake, the Bills just paid AJ Klein, a 31 year old linebacker who most likely will play less than 60% of snaps on defense this year, $6 million per year.  Think what you want about Milano, but the guy is an every down linebacker, he played close to 90% of the defensive snaps last year despite missing a game, and was productive when he was on the field.   No way he gets paid $7 million a year as a max out.  If thats the offer he wont be on your team and its not like every down linebackers grow on trees, you also have to consider what they have behind him, which is next to nothing.

 

Yep. People need to really understand the market. He isn't signing anywhere for less than $10m and there is no way the Bills offer is only $7m. I actually think $10m is probably the Bills offer and they might even be willing to go a little higher in exchange for a small guaranteed percentage.  

[thenorthremembers]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. People need to really understand the market. He isn't signing anywhere for less than $10m and there is no way the Bills offer is only $7m. I actually think $10m is probably the Bills offer and they might even be willing to go a little higher in exchange for a small guaranteed percentage.  

I think a lot of what goes on in terms of valuing players in Buffalo is about exposure.  Milano and Edmunds essentially had the same year last year, one is constantly talked about as a future pro bowler, and was a first round pick, the other isnt.  Not saying Milano is a better player, but he is a very good player and should be paid like it.  

[CBD]

Corey Littleton signed as a UFA with Vegas for 3 years $36. I think an extension for Milano at around that seems right. 

 

Milano currently has 1 year left at $2M, would make the total remaining 4 years $38M

[Einstein's Dog]

I like/hope they continue the signing of people they want to an extension a year early at reasonable rates.  It gives the lower draft picks mega-money now with the guarantees and the Bills can get a good deal on the player is they have assessed that player correctly.  Locks up good players, gives consistency to the team, gives good base of players, limits turnover from year to year.  The player gets into the mega-million range, not as much as hitting the open market, but secured mega-millions a year earler.

 

Looks like the Bills have the opportunity to present Milano a four year extension at around $10 million for later years.  Give him the guarantee now and spread it out for  the next 5 years.

[eball]

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

42 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I think a lot of what goes on in terms of valuing players in Buffalo is about exposure.  Milano and Edmunds essentially had the same year last year, one is constantly talked about as a future pro bowler, and was a first round pick, the other isnt.  Not saying Milano is a better player, but he is a very good player and should be paid like it.  

They had no where near the same season. Milano was no where near as good as Edmunds.

[Estro]

Milano is a better LB, right now, than Edmunds. He was a 5th round pick so he doesn't have the same cache, but we know he's a key piece to the D.  I remember Greg Cosell raving about Milano's skill set and said his talent has not gone unnoticed in league circles.  So I think he will get paid.

 

On the open market he probably could command $14+M per year, but with the uncertainty of where the cap is headed perhaps the Bills could strike a deal now, which gives him a healthy signing bonus now and in return he takes a couple million less per.  

 

I'm thinking a 4 year $48M extension would be a solid deal.  That would essentially be a 5 yr. $50M deal when factoring in his $1M salary this year

[Buddo]

Without being especially detailed about it, my impression has been that for the last couple of years, the team has been better with Milano on the field, than when he's missed any games.

 

Now, while Joseph may have some potential, we don't know how he's progressed, as he has been injured. There isn't anyone currently, who replaces him to the same level of play.

 

Undoubtedly, Milano is a good 'fit' for what we do as a D. He has also proven himself as a good player in the system. Imho, he will be a decent player for other base 4-3 teams, yet perhaps not have the same level of impact he has had for us.

 

That leads into how do you value him? As a starter level 4-3 LBer, he is probably worth around the $6-8 million per, region, especially considering his body of work and age. Due to his 'fit' for the Bills, I think you can bump that by a couple of million, especially as we currently don't appear to have an equally effective replacement.

 

I think Milano can probably get around $8 million per, from just about any 4-3 base team.  He's definitely  starter, and his age and experience is right. Depending on how they want to use him, that might go up some, but not a great deal.

 

I think the Bills know exactly what they have, and want, from him, and will be willing to actually 'overpay'  some, to retain him, and my best guess is that he will end up with a deal that is about $10 million per. I think that that is fair, and a reflection of his value to the Bills, in relation to the market. I would be pretty surprised if he gets more than that, because I don't see other teams being prepared to pay that.

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you read it Milano is a better Shaq Thompson by virtually every metric. His agent knows that.

They do very different things for their defenses. Stat analysis of Milano and Thompson is the wrong way to look at it imo. Thompson does way more surrounded by way less.

10 minutes ago, Estro said:

Milano is a better LB, right now, than Edmunds. He was a 5th round pick so he doesn't have the same cache, but we know he's a key piece to the D.  I remember Greg Cosell raving about Milano's skill set and said his talent has not gone unnoticed in league circles.  So I think he will get paid.

 

On the open market he probably could command $14+M per year, but with the uncertainty of where the cap is headed perhaps the Bills could strike a deal now, which gives him a healthy signing bonus now and in return he takes a couple million less per.  

 

I'm thinking a 4 year $48M extension would be a solid deal.  That would essentially be a 5 yr. $50M deal when factoring in his $1M salary this year

No to all of this. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

The extension itself will not be for anything less than $10 million dollars a year.   I know he isnt the most popular player on this board, but he is a good player, probably top 15 at his position.  Given the higher salary cap this year his extension probably looks something like 4 yrs/43.5million.  The good news is our front office is smart, so they will add money to the last year of his rookie deal and spread the remaining money over the last four years.  So essentially you'll get him at $9 million a year for five.

Dawkins is ranked around 12 to 15 and is being paid top 5 money, might as well do the same for Milano. Milano is one of the best cover LB's in the NLF, his run stuffing is average but this isn't the 90's, teams will be passing the football more and more as long as the rules keep changing. Milano is definitely one of those players when he is not in there you notice it. 4 year 45 mil type deal would be a good deal for player and team. Milanos ability to cover RB, TE and WR's to some degree is so valuable right now in the NLF, especially since we play the NE cheat riots who's whole game plan is quick illegal screens/rub routes. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Milano IMO will be the one they want to re-sign but can't. 

[DrDawkinstein]

7 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

Dawkins is ranked around 12 to 15 and is being paid top 5 money, might as well do the same for Milano.

 

But he isnt. He's getting #12 money.

[Kirby Jackson]

26 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

They do very different things for their defenses. Stat analysis of Milano and Thompson is the wrong way to look at it imo. Thompson does way more surrounded by way less.

No to all of this. 

That’s an argument that the Bills will make. Milano’s agent will be using the stat argument. That’s kind of the point. That’s why this is a lot more complicated of a negotiation than the other extensions IMO.

[Victory Formation]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some. 

He is a good player, a solid player but not a great player. 9$M-10$M is what a very good player if not borderline elite player should receive. I’ll acknowledge though that there is a wildcard involved here. I saw leaked photos of Milano and he looks like a hammer, his conditioning is absurd. Looks like he is up to 240-245lbs now. He really looks like he has a lot more power now which was my biggest knock on him. Very good in coverage but I’d like to see him act as a hammer in run support. Let him play out his deal and if he shows improvement go ahead and offer him $9M-$10M a year. If he is willing to take a team friendly deal now however I would absolutely go for it. Once again though I feel it’s unwise to give good players great contracts, it’ll get us into cap trouble down the line. Buffalo is going to have to make some very very difficult choices in the future, we are a powerhouse. It sounds really weird to say but it’s true. We can’t pay everyone, we must identify key players to build around and Milano isn’t one of them.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

But he isnt. He's getting #12 money.

But at a 15 mil per year average he really is and in the top 5 according to spotrac. 

[Orlando Tim]

3 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I’m not going to pretend to have an informed opinion about how much Milano should receive.  There are three things though that I feel pretty confident about;

 

1.  Milano should not be the highest paid LB in the League

2.  Milano is not even the best LB on the team

3.  Milano is a stud and a vital part of the D and he needs to be resigned

 

I’ll leave the rest to Beane who I trust to thread the needle again.

 

The only word in this I disagree with is stud, but that might be simply personal definition. His greatest asset is his ability to run fast. He can't take on lineman and he won't make a bad defense good. He is the perfect complementary player, like Don Beebe.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s an argument that the Bills will make. Milano’s agent will be using the stat argument. That’s kind of the point. That’s why this is a lot more complicated of a negotiation than the other extensions IMO.

Yeh I get that. I just don't think there's a ton of wiggle room in trying to justify saying a base 4-3 WILL does the same things as a hybrid big nickel OLB/safety.  Thompson is in a different league from Milano, and iirc the Panthers were in a 3-4 the majority of Thompson's time there so I doubt the stat argument will fly.

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

But at a 15 mil per year average he really is and in the top 5 according to spotrac. 

 

I'll refer you back to the Dawkins thread. It isnt a 4yr/$60M contract. It is 5 yr/$61M. Which is $12.2M/year.

 

I understand both sides of the argument, because it comes down to how you want to slice this last year of his rookie deal.

 

It's a smart contract because it gives the Bills a $12.2M averge, but the player can think of his next contract as $15M avg.

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

He is a good player, a solid player but not a great player. 9$M-10$M is what a very good player if not borderline elite player should receive. I’ll acknowledge though that there is a wildcard involved here. I saw leaked photos of Milano and he looks like a hammer, his conditioning is absurd. Looks like he is up to 240-245lbs now. He really looks like he has a lot more power now which was my biggest knock on him. Very good in coverage but I’d like to see him act as a hammer in run support. Let him play out his deal and if he shows improvement go ahead and offer him $9M-$10M a year. If he is willing to take a team friendly deal now however I would absolutely go for it. Once again though I feel it’s unwise to give good players great contracts, it’ll get us into cap trouble down the line. Buffalo is going to have to make some very very difficult choices in the future, we are a powerhouse. It sounds really weird to say but it’s true. We can’t pay everyone, we must identify key players to build around and Milano isn’t one of them.

$9m-$10 would be an extremely team friendly deal. It’s all based on comps. If Shaq Thompson is the comp at $13.6M we should be saying, “I’d be willing to stretch to $9m for Milano.” That’s not how it works. Team friendly would be like $12M a year. Market value would be $14M. If we don’t like that I get it. I don’t think I’d go there but he certainly isn’t looking at $9M.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

$9m-$10 would be an extremely team friendly deal. It’s all based on comps. If Shaq Thompson is the comp at $13.6M we should be saying, “I’d be willing to stretch to $9m for Milano.” That’s not how it works. Team friendly would be like $12M a year. Market value would be $14M. If we don’t like that I get it. I don’t think I’d go there but he certainly isn’t looking at $9M.

If you are basing these figures off the BR article on Milano's contract comps I have to say that guy using Thompson' contract hasn't watched enough of him to understand it's a bad analogy imo

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yeh I get that. I just don't think there's a ton of wiggle room in trying to justify saying a base 4-3 WILL does the same things as a hybrid big nickel OLB/safety.  Thompson is in a different league from Milano, and iirc the Panthers were in a 3-4 the majority of Thompson's time there so I doubt the stat argument will fly.

I don’t disagree but that’s his leverage. You can say, as a “coverage Lb” Milano did ___ and Shaq did ____. His agent isn’t going to just say “I get it, my client was more productive we will take 75% of Thompson’s deal.” I’d be hoping for $10M and would go to $12M. I am not sure that gets its done. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'll refer you back to the Dawkins thread. It isnt a 4yr/$60M contract. It is 5 yr/$61M. Which is $12.2M/year.

People can refer all they want, this season will be a total ***** show and the SB winner will hold less value than even the Patriots SB's. Next year might be better but every place I look has Dawkins at a 15 mil a year average and that's what we will be paying him in 2021 so he is being paid as a top 5 LT in my eyes. 

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

If you are basing these figures off the BR article on Milano's contract comps I have to say that guy using Thompson' contract hasn't watched enough of him to understand it's a bad analogy imo

Anthony Barr was the other comp and think that they are different. The point remains that we are under shooting it. He isn’t signing something like 4 years $35M imo. We will see I guess.

[GoBills808]

Like Poyer, I think our FO will be able to accurately judge Milano's value in this system and I would be very surprised if it's anywhere even remotely close to $14M/yr

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Anthony Barr was the other comp and think that they are different. The point remains that we are under shooting it. He isn’t signing something like 4 years $35M imo. We will see I guess.

 

I hope youre as wrong about this as you were right about Dawkins

 

But I hear ya.

[HappyDays]

I could be way off base here but I don't think other teams will value Milano as much as we do. He's a situational/scheme specific player. He can't plug and play in any defense. I could see us paying him $10 million a year, that sounds about right. I don't think he's get more than that on the open market.

[aristocrat]

if we don't sign him and he gets big money elsewhere we get that ever important comp pick.  milano i kind of go back and forth on.  he has those moments where he just hits the hole and stuffs some rb and then he has some bonehead moments.  if we lose him i trust beane can get a solid replacement.  you can't pay everyone

[ColoradoBills]

I feel if Milano held out for big money due to his "stats" he risks going to a team that he doesn't fit into well.  IF that happened he

could have the chance of not making the full contract with that team.

 

When it's all said and done I think he stays in Buffalo and is more than happy fitting into the D and settles around 10 million per year.

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I hope youre as wrong about this as you were right about Dawkins

 

But I hear ya.

This one is definitely trickier. Dawkins at 4 for $60M felt pretty fair to both sides. It was a lot less complicated. Milano’s situation is fluid but I think we are dreaming to think that it is below $10M AAV as of today. That would be a bargain. The market is just different. Bandit just gave Martinez & Littleton as examples.

[BuffBillsForLife]

I would never give big money to a non-pass rushing OLB, that's just insane when LB is one of the easiest holes to plug in the draft.  If I'm backing up the brinks truck for a LB it's going to be Edmunds, and no way am I paying two linebackers north of $30m/yr combined.  I thank him for all of his hard work and hope he gets that well-earned payday somewhere, but he can't take up that much cap space when we have to extend Tre White to a mega deal next year and then Edmunds and Allen (who will hopefully deserve his own mega deal) the year after that.  You can't keep everyone you draft, but WANTING to is a sign of being a good drafter.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

He is a good player, a solid player but not a great player. 9$M-10$M is what a very good player if not borderline elite player should receive. I’ll acknowledge though that there is a wildcard involved here. I saw leaked photos of Milano and he looks like a hammer, his conditioning is absurd. Looks like he is up to 240-245lbs now. He really looks like he has a lot more power now which was my biggest knock on him. Very good in coverage but I’d like to see him act as a hammer in run support. Let him play out his deal and if he shows improvement go ahead and offer him $9M-$10M a year. If he is willing to take a team friendly deal now however I would absolutely go for it. Once again though I feel it’s unwise to give good players great contracts, it’ll get us into cap trouble down the line. Buffalo is going to have to make some very very difficult choices in the future, we are a powerhouse. It sounds really weird to say but it’s true. We can’t pay everyone, we must identify key players to build around and Milano isn’t one of them.

 

$9-10m is not borderline elite money anymore. It is good proven starter money. Milano definitely meets that criteria.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I could be way off base here but I don't think other teams will value Milano as much as we do. He's a situational/scheme specific player. He can't plug and play in any defense. I could see us paying him $10 million a year, that sounds about right. I don't think he's get more than that on the open market.

 

You are misreading the market. Blake Martinez just got $10m. Milano gets more than him. 

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Like Poyer, I think our FO will be able to accurately judge Milano's value in this system and I would be very surprised if it's anywhere even remotely close to $14M/yr

 

Oh the Bills won't pay Milano $14m per. No way. I think $10m is probably where the Bills would go. They might stretch to $11m. If he tests the market he is in the $12-14m range off some team, but he won't get that if he wants to stay in Buffalo.

[eball]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oh the Bills won't pay Milano $14m per. No way. I think $10m is probably where the Bills would go. They might stretch to $11m. If he tests the market he is in the $12-14m range off some team, but he won't get that if he wants to stay in Buffalo.

Exactly right. This is where we see just how much wanting to stay in Buffalo and continue playing for McDermott means.