What would/should a Milano extension look like?

[Kirby Jackson]

There is a lot of discussion in the “who is next” thread about Milano. He’s in the last year of his deal and seems to be pretty polarizing when it comes to his next contract. I felt that this discussion needed to be broken out to talk just about Milano and the numbers. Is Milano’s playmaking ability the product of the system or the reason that the system is so effective? It’s a little chicken and egg
 

In my opinion the Bills came into this offseason wanting to extend Dawkins, Spain and Milano (obviously Beane and McDermott too but they don’t factor into the cap). The Bills probably had a total number in mind for these 3. Dawkins contract is probably almost exactly what they expected. Spain was a bargain for the Bills. He was probably $2m-$3M less than they expected on an annual basis. What they expect for Milano is anybody’s guess. It seems like most projections are in the $14M a year range. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buffalorumblings.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21157016/contract-projection-for-buffalo-bills-linebacker-matt-milano-highest-paid-linebacker-in-the-nfl
 

Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be? 

 

 

[Victory Formation]

Mmmmm 7-8$M annually. 4yrs $30M total.

[Captain Hindsight]

 

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be? 

 

Not at all.

 

I'm thinking more like Trent Murphy money.

 

I'd give him a 3 year extension, $21M-25M total.

 

Those $14M/yr projections are INSANE. If that is anywhere close to reality we have to let him walk. He is a system LB who has played well in Buffalo and for McD. Hopefully he realizes how lucky he got as a 5th round pick.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[LeviF]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There is a lot of discussion in the “who is next” thread about Milano. He’s in the last year of his deal and seems to be pretty polarizing when it comes to his next contract. I felt that this discussion needed to be broken out to talk just about Milano and the numbers. Is Milano’s playmaking ability the product of the system or the reason that the system is so effective? It’s a little chicken and egg
 

In my opinion the Bills came into this offseason wanting to extend Dawkins, Spain and Milano (obviously Beane and McDermott too but they don’t factor into the cap). The Bills probably had a total number in mind for these 3. Dawkins contract is probably almost exactly what they expected. Spain was a bargain for the Bills. He was probably $2m-$3M less than they expected on an annual basis. What they expect for Milano is anybody’s guess. It seems like most projections are in the $14M a year range. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buffalorumblings.com/platform/amp/2020/3/2/21157016/contract-projection-for-buffalo-bills-linebacker-matt-milano-highest-paid-linebacker-in-the-nfl
 

Would you be comfortable with Milano at roughly the same deal that Dawkins just signed? Let’s say 4 years and $56M. If not, what would your contract offer to Milano be? 

 

 

 

For context, $14M salary this year would make Milano the 12th highest paid LB in the league.  Even excluding guys on their rookie deals still, Milano is not close to being the 12th best LB in the league.

[947]

I think Milano is an ideal for the Bills defense, and not so much for most other teams. While I think he's worth a pretty big deal to us, I don't think he'll get as much because of that limited market for him. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely want him locked up, but I don't think he'll get close to Dawkins' deal.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Mmmmm 7-8$M annually. 4yrs $30M total.

 

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Not at all.

 

I'm thinking more like Trent Murphy money.

 

I'd give him a 3 year extension, at about $21M-25M total.

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some. 

Edited August 14, 2020 by Kirby Jackson

[Virgil]

When comparing him to other OLB's, you need to make sure you aren't looking at edge rushers numbers.  From a coverage OLB perspective, I can see the 8-10 mil range.  He's a solid performer, but not an all-pro.  He's not one I would over-pay for a future deal.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which it changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some. 

 

I would not go to an 8-figure number.

 

If that is really what he can get, then more power to him and good luck on the next team.

 

I'd see that play out much like an Andy Levitre situation. Go get paid, and never really play well with all the injuries.

 

I wouldnt fault him for going for that money, and I wouldnt fault the Bills for letting him walk.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[Inigo Montoya]

I’m not going to pretend to have an informed opinion about how much Milano should receive.  There are three things though that I feel pretty confident about;

 

1.  Milano should not be the highest paid LB in the League

2.  Milano is not even the best LB on the team

3.  Milano is a stud and a vital part of the D and he needs to be resigned

 

I’ll leave the rest to Beane who I trust to thread the needle again.

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by Inigo Montoya

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, Virgil said:

When comparing him to other OLB's, you need to make sure you aren't looking at edge rushers numbers.  From a coverage OLB perspective, I can see the 8-10 mil range.  He's a solid performer, but not an all-pro.  He's not one I would over-pay for a future deal.

That’s why the Shaq Thompson contract is the one that they use for comparison. It really is an interesting dilemma IMO. I think that I’m higher on Milano than most but at the same time there is a line. It doesn’t sound like many people (including me) are even willing to go to the market value on him. 

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I would not go to an 8-figure number.

 

If that is really what he can get, then more power to him and good luck on the next team.

 

I'd see that play out much like an Andy Levitre situation. Go get paid, and never really play well with all the injuries.

 

I wouldnt fault him for going for that money, and I wouldnt fault the Bills for letting him walk.

 

 

That may be how this plays out.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

22 minutes ago, LeviF91 said:

 

For context, $14M salary this year would make Milano the 12th highest paid LB in the league.  Even excluding guys on their rookie deals still, Milano is not close to being the 12th best LB in the league.

 

I think it would make him higher than that. Most of those LB pay lists include pass rushers like Mack and Von Miller. Milano is in an entirely different category of player. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s why the Shaq Thompson contract is the one that they use for comparison. It really is an interesting dilemma IMO. I think that I’m higher on Milano than most but at the same time there is a line. It doesn’t sound like many people (including me) are even willing to go to the market value on him. 

That may be how this plays out.

 

Is Shaq the "market value" though? Milano is not Shaq, and I don't think market value for a non-pro bowl, non-pass rushing OLB is even $10M.  I sort of think the position is the RB of the defense--more easily replaced than other positions, and not worth major salary cap investment. 

[LeviF]

3 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I think it would make him higher than that. Most of those LB pay lists include pass rushers like Mack and Von Miller. Milano is in an entirely different category of player. 

 

Yes, which makes the point even more salient. I think Milano is a decent LB.  Way outclassed his draft status, to be sure.  But $14M AAV would be insane.  Maybe he'll go get $10-12M AAV somewhere but I doubt it'll be here.  This may be a situation where they can't figure out an extension number and let him go see what's out there.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s why the Shaq Thompson contract is the one that they use for comparison. It really is an interesting dilemma IMO. I think that I’m higher on Milano than most but at the same time there is a line. It doesn’t sound like many people (including me) are even willing to go to the market value on him. 

That may be how this plays out.

I previously advocated letting him walk assuming he would get at least 12-13m AAV but I was thinking yesterday that, considering his humble lifestyle, he may have different priorities than others and may be the type to take lower numbers to stay in a place and situation where he's happy. If it's around say $9-10m can we pass it up?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, LeviF91 said:

 

Yes, which makes the point even more salient. I think Milano is a decent LB.  Way outclassed his draft status, to be sure.  But $14M AAV would be insane.  Maybe he'll go get $10-12M AAV somewhere but I doubt it'll be here.  This may be a situation where they can't figure out an extension number and let him go see what's out there.

 

I just said this above, but I'll say it again in response to you:  I sort of think the non-pass rushing, non-pass rushing OLB  is the RB of the defense--more easily replaced than other positions, and not worth major salary cap investment. What do you think? 

[klos63]

30 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

That seems to be the sense from a lot of people and that’s why the discussion is important. The market is saying that he’s going to get paid a good bit more than that. For me the number in my head at the moment (which changes a lot) is about $10M a year. With the money saved on Spain I’d be willing to go to $12M but would need some injury protection and an out. It would probably be 4 years after this one with an out after the 2022 season. That way if I needed money for Josh or Edmunds I could find some. 

Really don't think you can say that we 'saved' money on the Spain deal, anyways, you pay Milano what you think he's worth. I can't see $14 million, but $10 maybe with an out after 2 or 3 years. This team is designed to win in the next 2 seasons. Milano should be part of that team.

[JustWinPlease]

The last time Beane and McDermott had a 5th round stud coming up for a big contact, they let him walk.

Josh Norman in Carolina...he was another "system player," like Milano.

Vosean Joseph, it's time to shine!

[LeviF]

2 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I just said this above, but I'll say it again in response to you:  I sort of think the non-pass rushing, non-pass rushing OLB  is the RB of the defense--more easily replaced than other positions, and not worth major salary cap investment. What do you think? 

 

Replaceable to the level of the NFL RB at this point?  I'm not sure that's the case with McDermott's defense.  He seems to ask a lot of the weakside linebacker.  Somebody with more knowledge of NFL defenses could answer better.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, JustWinPlease said:

The last time Beane and McDermott had a 5th round stud coming up for a big contact, they let him walk.

Josh Norman in Carolina...he was another "system player," like Milano.

Vosean Joseph, it's time to shine!

 

Great point.

 

Hopefully Norman has some advice for Milano on how that worked out. But I'm not sure anyone would ever say "Don't get paid".

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

fun facts 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

17 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Is Shaq the "market value" though? Milano is not Shaq, and I don't think market value for a non-pro bowl, non-pass rushing OLB is even $10M.  I sort of think the position is the RB of the defense--more easily replaced than other positions, and not worth major salary cap investment. 

If you read it Milano is a better Shaq Thompson by virtually every metric. His agent knows that.

11 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Really don't think you can say that we 'saved' money on the Spain deal, anyways, you pay Milano what you think he's worth. I can't see $14 million, but $10 maybe with an out after 2 or 3 years. This team is designed to win in the next 2 seasons. Milano should be part of that team.

Spain was projected between $7m-$10m a year. He signed for $5M without really exploring his options. He was certainly under what was expected.

[Royale with Cheese]

10 minutes ago, JustWinPlease said:

The last time Beane and McDermott had a 5th round stud coming up for a big contact, they let him walk.

Josh Norman in Carolina...he was another "system player," like Milano.

Vosean Joseph, it's time to shine!

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Norman asking for the most money by a CB and Washington gave it to him?  

 

I think that would be the difference here.  I don't believe Milano will be asking to be the highest paid OLB.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MilaMa00.htm

					Games		Def Interceptions					Fumbles						Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	TD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	TD	Sk	Comb	Solo	Ast	TFL	QBHits	Sfty	AV
2017	23	BUF	rlb	58	16	5	1	15	0	15	2	1	0	1	40	1	0	49	32	17	7	6		4
2018	24	BUF	RLB	58	13	13	3	41	0	29	7	0	0	3	0	0	1	78	52	26	12	3		9
2019	25	BUF	LLB	58	15	15	0	0	0	0	9	1	0	1	0	0	1.5	101	65	36	7	7		11
Career					44	33	4	56	0	29	18	2	0	5	40	1	2.5	228	149	79	26	16		24

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you read it Milano is a better Shaq Thompson by virtually every metric. His agent knows that.

 

 

I'd be interested in seeing their number of Broken/Missed tackles compared. But not sure if anyone tracks that.

[poblano]

The situation with Milano is that with him in the field this defense is better, and that must be take in consideration at the time the money talks come, at least in the mind of the front office. I don't see at this moment other player that brings that to the defense, and for me is a reason to slightly overpay him

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you read it Milano is a better Shaq Thompson by virtually every metric. His agent knows that.

Spain was projected between $7m-$10m a year. He signed for $5M without really exploring his options. He was certainly under what was expected.

 

 I just read it (I didn't see you posted that article). Yeah, hard to argue with the numbers. I just think OLB is one of those positions where the entire story isn't told by the stats.  Above I've been saying that non-pass rushing OLBs are the RB of the defense. I'll use that comparison to illustrate--Bell was as top-3 RB in the league, but he was easily replaced by Connors and then underperformed in NY.  Sure, his numbers were the best, but that doesn't tell the whole story.  I sort of think its the same thing for non-pass rushing OLB, and that's the reason we should not pay them. 

 

All that being said, I'll bet you anything the Bills disagree, just based on the history in Carolina.  So what do I know. 

[Jauronimo]

25 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

I previously advocated letting him walk assuming he would get at least 12-13m AAV but I was thinking yesterday that, considering his humble lifestyle, he may have different priorities than others and may be the type to take lower numbers to stay in a place and situation where he's happy. If it's around say $9-10m can we pass it up?

His interests are fashion and music.  Unless the good people of Buffalo have turned him on to cargo shorts, crocs, and Kid Rock then I think his interests and lifestyle would be a better fit in NYC or LA.  

[noacls]

7 mil tops. If more bye bye. A top 30 lb makes the sack of Watson.

[Royale with Cheese]

21 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Is Shaq the "market value" though? Milano is not Shaq, and I don't think market value for a non-pro bowl, non-pass rushing OLB is even $10M.  I sort of think the position is the RB of the defense--more easily replaced than other positions, and not worth major salary cap investment. 

 

I'm not a defensive expert but it seems in McDermott's defense, someone like Milano is a key ingredient.  He has him out there all the time.  Speed seems to be essential and that's what Milano gives him....plus his coverage ability.  

 

I don't know if it's just how it ended up but it seems that McDermott puts money into his linebackers and puts depth into his defensive line.  I don't think he's ever had that elite pass rushing end (could be wrong), he's always just had multiple solid to very solid guys up front.  

Thomas Davis doesn't really rush the passer either and was given a nice contract while under McDermott.

[thebandit27]

I think expecting Milano to take $8M AAV when guys like Littleton and Schoebert are getting $11M is nuts.

 

I mean, Blake Martinez got $10M.

 

Milano is probably in the 10-12 range unless he takes a HUGE discount, which I suppose is possible given his unique “minimalist” nature, but it would surprise me.

[MJS]

He's worth whatever the Bills want to pay for him. My guess is he'll be making 12 million a year and if McDermott and Beane think he's important to keep at that number I am fine with that.

 

People are getting really possessive of Pegula's money.

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'd be interested in seeing their number of Broken/Missed tackles compared. But not sure if anyone tracks that.

Milano missed tackle rates:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MilaMa00.htm
20.4% in 2018

13.7% in 2019

 

Thompson:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomSh01.htm

11.1% in 2018

9.2% in 2019

[No_Matter_What]

"Knowing" Beane, McD and Milano I'd say he'll stay under terms very favorable for the Bills. He seems like a guy who wants to play here and doesn't care that much about the money. Beane won't overpay but for me part of the culture is to offer fair deals to all our own, esp. those who were drafted in lower rounds and worked hard through their rookie deals.

 

If I had to guess I'd say something like 4/36 which if we add to this years peanuts he gets will be amazing deal for Bills.

 

My dream is that key players will be willing to stay here for slightly less than their market price in order to allow Beane to build constant contender. I think Dion just did it and it sets good example (same as Spain before). Milano and Tre will, and then JA will follow. One can dream right?

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

He's worth whatever the Bills want to pay for him. My guess is he'll be making 12 million a year and if McDermott and Beane think he's important to keep at that number I am fine with that.

 

People are getting really possessive of Pegula's money.

it's not actual cash, it's the cap. Speculation it may drop to $175M next season. That plays a big part in this

Just now, No_Matter_What said:

"Knowing" Beane, McD and Milano I'd say he'll stay under terms very favorable for the Bills. He seems like a guy who wants to play here and doesn't care that much about the money. Beane won't overpay but for me part of the culture is to offer fair deals to all our own, esp. those who were drafted in lower rounds and worked hard through their rookie deals.

 

If I had to guess I'd say something like 4/36 which if we add to this years peanuts he gets will be amazing deal for Bills.

 

My dream is that key players will be willing to stay here for slightly less than their market price in order to allow Beane to build constant contender. I think Dion just did it and it sets good example (same as Spain before). Milano and Tre will, and then JA will follow. One can dream right?

it's a good dream but players make their most money on the 2nd contract

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Milano missed tackle rates:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MilaMa00.htm
20.4% in 2018

13.7% in 2019

 

Thompson:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomSh01.htm

11.1% in 2018

9.2% in 2019

 

Thanks, bandit.

 

I'd say that's a pretty big difference. No?

 

Milano is going to miss 1 in every 6 tackles, where Thompson only misses 1 in 10.

 

I know Beane/McD/someone has said we need to get better at tackling this year. Maybe they wait to see if he improves at all.

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by DrDawkinstein

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Thanks, bandit.

 

I'd say that's a pretty big difference. No?

Yes, Thompson tackles Watson. 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm not a defensive expert but it seems in McDermott's defense, someone like Milano is a key ingredient.  He has him out there all the time.  Speed seems to be essential and that's what Milano gives him....plus his coverage ability.  

 

I don't know if it's just how it ended up but it seems that McDermott puts money into his linebackers and puts depth into his defensive line.  I don't think he's ever had that elite pass rushing end (could be wrong), he's always just had multiple solid to very solid guys up front.  

Thomas Davis doesn't really rush the passer either and was given a nice contract while under McDermott.

 

Whenever I think I really understand pro-level football, I realize I know nothing.  I mean, McDermott clearly knows what he is doing on defense, and everything you say here is absolutely correct, historically speaking. I just have a hard time valuing the OLB position. 

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Milano missed tackle rates:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MilaMa00.htm
20.4% in 2018

13.7% in 2019

 

Thompson:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomSh01.htm

11.1% in 2018

9.2% in 2019

 

That difference is striking

[Long Suffering Fan]

Quote

People are getting really possessive of Pegula's money.

 

Not really.  It is the cap that is always the concern.

 

Quote

My dream is that key players will be willing to stay here for slightly less than their market price in order to allow Beane to build constant contender. I think Dion just did it and it sets good example (same as Spain before). Milano and Tre will, and then JA will follow. One can dream right?

 

I'm dreaming with you, No_Matter_What.

 

[No_Matter_What]

9 minutes ago, nucci said:

it's not actual cash, it's the cap. Speculation it may drop to $175M next season. That plays a big part in this

it's a good dream but players make their most money on the 2nd contract

 

I'm just saying that I'd rather get 9m/y playing for competent organization from top to bottom under McD than for something like Jets under Gase or Raiders under Gruden for 11m/y or even 12m/y. I guess there is a chance that especially Milano thinks the same way. There are tons of people who make same decision in other professions (taking less in better working environment), and it should be actually easier decision when even the smaller amount sets you for life.

Edited August 14, 2020 by No_Matter_What