What do you make of these stats highlights how poor our offense was last season?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The offense was bad against the better teams/defenses of the league... not going to work against a much harder schedule than the cupcake schedule last season.

 

 

I guess i got to look at both schedules again but off the top of my head I don't see a huge difference. 

 

We finished last season with a murders row of tough defenses. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England all in succession. Replace Baltimore with the 49ers for 2020. Overall I guess there are some better teams on paper like Seattle and Kansas City. 

 

The big questions mark will be New England. They had a historically great defense last year. It's why we couldn't beat them even once when their offense was below average. This year seems much more likely to at least get a split with them. They lost some key defensive pieces and even if they returned everyone from the defense it's just hard to duplicate back to back great years especially takeaways. 

 

I think we end up losing to the Cardinals in Arizona. I can see it already. That's going to be a tough game for us. 

[HappyDays]

The 2 biggest problems on offense were Gore as the #1 RB and the merry go round of Duke/Zay/whoever as the #2 WR. Adding Moss and Diggs solves both of those problems on day one. The 3rd biggest problem will be solved if Allen becomes more consistent which remains to be seen. If he does, there's no reason our offense can't be near the same level as our defense this year.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

By the looks of it the OP used a Jets Fans view?

 

did the Bills not play second stringers in week 17? 
 

Did the Bills not make the playoffs?  
 

When it comes down to it.  
who has the better coach?  
 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

14 hours ago, ganesh said:

People keep saying we have a SB winning defense..yet our defense choked in the 2nd half of the wild card game to stop the Texans.  They gave up 19 straight points.   Giving up that 3rd and eternity to the RB by everyone running past the down marker is not the mark of a championship caliber defense.    This defense still does not have the necessary pass rush and also leaks like a bucket against the running game...It still needs a lot of work not withstanding the gaudy numbers on points and yards.

Shhhh. Nobody wants to hear that on this board.  

That said, the defense will get better when the offense puts more points on the board early. That will force more passing by the opponent making them a bit easier to defend and increase turnover opportunities. And in turn a few more turnovers will give the offense more short field scoring chances.  

As you said, they need more pass rush. Whether that is by scheme or the new guys they brought in or Oliver getting better they need to figure out a way to get more sacks, strip sacks, and pressures.

[Mr. K]

Game winning drives sounds like "Hero Ball"

[GoBills808]

20 minutes ago, Mr. K said:

Game winning drives sounds like "Hero Ball"

Sounds like a W to me

[Mr. K]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Sounds like a W to me

Gunslinger pew pew pew. I'll take them however they come as long as its 10+ wins and Josh is above average.

[atlbillsfan1975]

5 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

My bias? 

 

I like Josh a hell of a lot more than Tyrod and Fitz, but to this point a Josh Allen offense hasn't produced MORE than what Tyrod and that offense did in 2015 and 2016.... I acknowledge his ceiling is way higher.

 

People love to throw out the game winning drives as a predictor of success. Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow led the league in 4th quarter comebacks too early in their careers.

Eh, you are changing your original statement. All good. Fitz and Tyrod couldn’t win a game when it counted. They are classic choke artists, Tyrod more so. Fitz had a couple nice come from behind games against NE and Oakland one year. Other than that I am struggling to recall him leading the team down the field in the fourth quarter to win a game. Fitz and Tyrod never led the Bills offense into some juggernaut who didn’t need to score points late to win. Bringing up irrelevant names isn’t germane to this discussion.  

[Just Joshin']

I choose to focus on 2020 with Diggs, not live in 2019.  

[RevWarRifleman]

On 8/8/2020 at 7:11 PM, Don Otreply said:

It means we were 10-6 and went to the post season, and, wait, we are favored to win the division this season, so we got that going for us...

 

Yes the O needs to step up, but all of us already knew that... next...

 

Go Bills!!!

copy that

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

13 hours ago, eball said:

If I knew or gave a damn about who “Michael Nania” is that might make a difference in how I view his opinion.

beginning of page two for the ad hominem only argument. I’m proud of this board it took that long. 

[AmishRifle]

I’ve always viewed the 2nd half defensive collapse against the Texans as an inability to adjust to a “running” Deshaun Watson.  The first half of the game we seemed to contain him and the Texans were content to keep him in the pocket.  The second half was a different story where he was running more and breaking out of the pocket.  

[DCbillsfan]

The Bills offense needs to score more points.  Yeah the defense muffed up against the Texans but you're not going to win many playoff games scoring one touchdown and a handful of FGs.  Also, I look at this playoff loss as one of those losses that almost every pro team experiences before becoming a good team.  The Bills should be focused and determined.

[ganesh]

15 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I know it’s impossible to put it on 1 guy but I’m going to repeat what I said, every week of last season: 

 

(First off) Beane has been amazing and he’s got so much equity built up with me that one mistake is nothing. But it was inexcusable to ever sign Frank Gore last year and even worse to constantly activate him for games. The fact that he got several carries in big spots is incomprehensible. The guy had been completely done for at least 3 years before he got to Buffalo. I will give him that he was solid in the Patriots game. But that in no way covers the rest of the season for me. This guy absolutely killed our momentum on so many occasions. No matter what we had going, Dabol could not help himself but to get Gore the ball early on downs and put us in a big hole. The entire thing was self inflicted for absolutely no reason. It was maddening to know that we had other RBs (in house) that would have given us so much more as a spell to Singletary. I am not sure how anyone alive could watch this team and not notice how shot this guys legs were. Somehow the only guy who couldn’t see it, was the offensive coordinator for the Bills. 
 

Holes were there. You could see that clearly anytime Singletary touched the ball. And don't get me wrong, I don’t blame Frank Gore. It’s not his fault he got old. It happens to all of us. And if someone wants to keep paying him, power to the guy. There was just no reason for us to ever have him here in the first place. You want him on the roster as a mentor to Singletary? I can live with that. Make him inactive and dress Yeldon then. In my eyes though (in this league) there is never a reason to pay, or even have an old running back...ever. I’m so happy that the Bills drafted Moss this year. I can’t wait to see what this offense looks like with 2 guys that can run. I know this wasn’t the only flaw our offense had last year but to me it was by far the biggest. Thankfully it got fixed over the offseason.

Agree in principle.  The reason Gore was on the field early:

* Singletary was not ready early in the season

* Singletary was injured early in the season 

* Singletary and Yeldon had ball securing issues

 

As the season went on, the coin did get flipped.  I think we should blame Daboll more for not involving Singletary late in the 4th quarter.

[Buffalo716]

So Watson Brees and Wilson are ahead of Allen for 4th quarter comebacks since 18

 

But they trash Allen because the offense only scored 18 points per game in those comebacks?

 

I guess being good in the 4th quarter only means you suck if you're Josh Allen

[Big Blitz]

On 8/8/2020 at 10:01 PM, Penfield45 said:

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not gonna hate on Allen for his game winning drives. but our offense seriously needs to step up next season. We have a SB winning caliber defense with an offense than can barely score more than 2 TD's per game. 

 

 

 

Singletary missing the first half of the season was a bigger deal than people realize. 

 

No excuse for the O as a whole.  But when your RB1 is Frank Gore.  And don't forget the mentality of the coaches was no doubt to win, but also do so while developing this "project" QB. 

 

We've sure come a long way from suicidal on draft night to nitpicking his 4th quarter comebacks.

 

Just more context re last year.  We played the Patriots twice.  The Ravens.  The Steelers.  Those were the elite defenses in the NFL that had truly impressive seasons.  And we were better in the 2nd game vs New England and it was at their place.  We figured out the Ravens a little bit in the 4th quarter.  And we beat that Steelers D that was red hot, in Pittsburgh.  

 

Take out those games and the finale vs the Jets and our O averaged 22 points per game in the others.  The Steelers and 49ers will be the only defenses close to what we saw last year.  Allen is further developed.  Diggs.  Better RB situation.  No reason to not be extremely optimistic.  

 

Get that 22 ppg to 27 and we'll be just fine.   

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

So Watson Brees and Wilson are ahead of Allen for 4th quarter comebacks since 18

 

But they trash Allen because the offense only scored 18 points per game in those comebacks?

 

I guess being good in the 4th quarter only means you suck if you're Josh Allen

 

The clutch gene, imo, is real. Wilson was actually questioned the same way his first 2 years. "Yea he has loads of game winning drives but easier to pull them off when your defense has held the opposition to 13 points." 

 

But as the Seattle D began to crumble Wilson kept pulling out 4th Quarter comebacks. He isn't pulling out 17-13 wins now it is 30-27 wins. That doesn't guarantee Josh will be the same (Wilson is freaking brilliant) but I think it is possible that the story is similar. 

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The clutch gene, imo, is real. Wilson was actually questioned the same way his first 2 years. "Yea he has loads of game winning drives but easier to pull them off when your defense has held the opposition to 13 points." 

 

But as the Seattle D began to crumble Wilson kept pulling out 4th Quarter comebacks. He isn't pulling out 17-13 wins now it is 30-27 wins. That doesn't guarantee Josh will be the same (Wilson is freaking brilliant) but I think it is possible that the story is similar. 

Wilson is a HoFr and criminally underrated

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Yes this is a fair comparison. Tyrod started what? All of two games his first two years in the league? ??

 

 

And the fact that Tyrod wasn't good enough to beat out a very inconsistent Joe Flacco was a great deal of the reason why he didn't start more.

 

And when people say that, some howl, "no, they were paying Flacco too much to sit him." Not buying it, nor should anyone. When one QB is clearly better than another one, NFL teams generally very quickly start to wonder why the better guy isn't starting. By all accounts Tyrod didn't outplay Flacco, except with his running, which meant the Ravens didn't have a reason to think about making a change.

 

So it is indeed a fair comparison. (Or at least as fair as comparisons like this get. Situations are always different, there'll never be an equal playing field.) But comparing the much older and more experienced Fitz and Tyrod to Josh in his first two years is just as unfair. Josh has shown a ton more as far back as college than Fitz and Tyrod, which is why he was a first round pick and they weren't.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Thurman#1

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

16 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

What does any of this have to do with the OP?

 

Sorry Scott if that confused you.  

 

Is there room for improvement?  Yes.

 

Did they make the playoffs?  Yes

 

Is there a good chance they make the playoffs this season (barring a cancelled season) Yes.

 

 

 

If it wasn't for the IMO, Idiotic play call on 4th and 15 and a dumb mistake by Josh ...

 

This conversation would be a whole lot different.  

 

 

As I have seen in this thread .....  Its just funny how Tyrod was praised for 4th QTR heroics 

 

But a 2nd year QB is somehow different? 

 

15-12-0

[C.Biscuit97]

On 8/8/2020 at 10:13 PM, MJS said:

That's one way to interpret the data.

 

No matter how you slice it, game winning drives are good.

They have become completely overrated here and not all game winning drives are the same.  Some facts.

 

1) that loser Pat Mahomes only has 3!!! In 2 years. Clearly, the Bills made the right decision passing on him.  He didn’t have a game winning drive when his team scored 51 points.  Clearly, he isn’t clutch. 
 

2) overrated and rb playing qb Lamar Jackson, who is clearly going to regress, only had 3 in 2 years.  If he was probably more clutch, his record would be better than his terrible 19-3 it currently is.  
 

anti clutch Brady only had 1.  Might have won more SBs if you were more clutch Tom! 
 

3) Mark Sanchez aka captain comeback had 9 in two years!!! Josh Freeman has 5 in 2010.  Blake Bortles has 5 in 2015.  
 

To sum this up:  if you play with an awesome defense, you have a lot of chances for come backs if you offense isn’t good.  Because if you play with an awesome defense and you have a good offense, you don’t need to come back because the game is over by the 4th.  Pat Mahomes, even with a subpar defense, doesn’t need 4th comebacks because he is so awesome the entire game, they are won long before the 4th.  
 

so again, have a game winning SB drive against the number 1 defense (Mahomes) or Montana is slightly different than coming back to beat Duck and his 3 ints 17-10 or beating Marcus Mariota and 4 missed FGs 14-7.

 

 Some of you love this stat such much.  Allen could be a much, much, much better qb this year (God willing) with 0 4th quarter comebacks.

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The clutch gene, imo, is real. Wilson was actually questioned the same way his first 2 years. "Yea he has loads of game winning drives but easier to pull them off when your defense has held the opposition to 13 points." 

 

But as the Seattle D began to crumble Wilson kept pulling out 4th Quarter comebacks. He isn't pulling out 17-13 wins now it is 30-27 wins. That doesn't guarantee Josh will be the same (Wilson is freaking brilliant) but I think it is possible that the story is similar. 

Very valid point.  I think Wilson was a much, much better passer than Allen At a similar stage in their careers though. 

8 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Singletary missing the first half of the season was a bigger deal than people realize. 

 

No excuse for the O as a whole.  But when your RB1 is Frank Gore.  And don't forget the mentality of the coaches was no doubt to win, but also do so while developing this "project" QB. 

 

We've sure come a long way from suicidal on draft night to nitpicking his 4th quarter comebacks.

 

Just more context re last year.  We played the Patriots twice.  The Ravens.  The Steelers.  Those were the elite defenses in the NFL that had truly impressive seasons.  And we were better in the 2nd game vs New England and it was at their place.  We figured out the Ravens a little bit in the 4th quarter.  And we beat that Steelers D that was red hot, in Pittsburgh.  

 

Take out those games and the finale vs the Jets and our O averaged 22 points per game in the others.  The Steelers and 49ers will be the only defenses close to what we saw last year.  Allen is further developed.  Diggs.  Better RB situation.  No reason to not be extremely optimistic.  

 

Get that 22 ppg to 27 and we'll be just fine.   

No offense but why do people do this?  You know averages work right?  What if we take out Miami?  How does average look then? Or the crappy Giants?  
 

the Ravens played a much harder defensive schedule and averaged 33 points/ game.  

[SirAndrew]

10 hours ago, ganesh said:

Agree in principle.  The reason Gore was on the field early:

* Singletary was not ready early in the season

* Singletary was injured early in the season 

* Singletary and Yeldon had ball securing issues

 

As the season went on, the coin did get flipped.  I think we should blame Daboll more for not involving Singletary late in the 4th quarter.

I think people also forget that Gore wasn’t bad early in the season. The problem began when he was on the field in crucial situations late in the year, when he had nothing left in the tank. 

[C.Biscuit97]

11 hours ago, DCbillsfan said:

The Bills offense needs to score more points.  Yeah the defense muffed up against the Texans but you're not going to win many playoff games scoring one touchdown and a handful of FGs.  Also, I look at this playoff loss as one of those losses that almost every pro team experiences before becoming a good team.  The Bills should be focused and determined.

It’s really that simple.  
 

1) the first Jets game should have had them blowing us out but our defense stood on their head

 

2) we scored a td all game against Ten and they missed 4 fgs.  Then we made our historic comeback. 
 

3) duck was so bad yet it took 10 points in the 4th to win these games.  
 

thise were bad offensive games that resulted in even having to “comeback.”  

21 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

My bias? 

 

I like Josh a hell of a lot more than Tyrod and Fitz, but to this point a Josh Allen offense hasn't produced MORE than what Tyrod and that offense did in 2015 and 2016.... I acknowledge his ceiling is way higher.

 

People love to throw out the game winning drives as a predictor of success. Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow led the league in 4th quarter comebacks too early in their careers.

This nails it.  This has always been my problem with the Allen pick (and prospects like this).  They are a million more times physically talented than Fitz and to a lesser degree Tyrod.  But what has he really produced that is better than them.  Folks don’t want to here it but Fitz might be the best qb in the division right now.  
 

now obviously that should hopefully change.  But a lot of Allen’s whole career has been more hype than results and this goes all the way back to college.  A guy with his talent should made 1st or 2nd team in MWC.  
 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 8/8/2020 at 10:01 PM, Penfield45 said:

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not gonna hate on Allen for his game winning drives. but our offense seriously needs to step up next season. We have a SB winning caliber defense with an offense than can barely score more than 2 TD's per game. 

 

 

We were down 16-0  midway through the 3rd quarter at the jets week 1.  4 turnovers - 2 deflected passes, a muffed snap, and a whiffed blindside block.  Nothing had gone right to that point in the game other than a couple of missed kicks by the jets.  However Buffalo had 160 yards at half, its not like they weren't moving the ball at all.  And when it came down to it - Allen put up drives that put 17 points on the board and won the game.  3 minutes left, darnold continued to do not much of anything.  

 

The bengals game was as much on the defense than anything else - they gave up 17 points over 3 straight drives following the allen INT.  I'm sure Russel Wilson has to give back his 4th quarter comeback that he earned against cincy too... Hell - Seattle only had 232 yards in the entire game against the bengals.  

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

We were down 16-0  midway through the 3rd quarter at the jets week 1.  4 turnovers - 2 deflected passes, a muffed snap, and a whiffed blindside block.  Nothing had gone right to that point in the game other than a couple of missed kicks by the jets.  However Buffalo had 160 yards at half, its not like they weren't moving the ball at all.  And when it came down to it - Allen put up drives that put 17 points on the board and won the game.  3 minutes left, darnold continued to do not much of anything.  

 

The bengals game was as much on the defense than anything else - they gave up 17 points over 3 straight drives following the allen INT.  I'm sure Russel Wilson has to give back his 4th quarter comeback that he earned against cincy too... Hell - Seattle only had 232 yards in the entire game against the bengals.  

 

Yep - those first three games the Bills offense moved the ball as well as any three game stretch in the season. We were behind at the Jets because of freak turnovers for the most part and when we played Cincy they were still competing, as they did against Seattle as you refer to. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep - those first three games the Bills offense moved the ball as well as any three game stretch in the season. We were behind at the Jets because of freak turnovers for the most part and when we played Cincy they were still competing, as they did against Seattle as you refer to. 

 

Just like every stat that points to him being good, there's one that says he isn't.  It'll have to play out on the field.  

[Rk_Bills86]

I find this hilarious - because the O last year was leaps and bounds better than Allen's first year. Dude is a project QB - who has shown excellent growth. The question is - does it continue. I hate the mass of people that want instant championships and instant hall of fame QB play. Not to mention there are far more variables at work here  - O-line was in it's first year together, RB was interesting and clearly needed time to learn, WR first years in our system,  etc...

 

All of these posts would really only be relevant AFTER this coming season. It's year 3, same OC, lots of returning members on O, good continuity, with a Mid to High Tier WR1 and a Mid to Low Tier WR 1 as our WR 2, our Slot WR is solid, Rookie TE got to learn on the fly and gets to show improvement (or maybe not - tbd), RB 2 is no longer the ageless plow that gains negative yards more often than positive after game 4 of the season (actual value unknown at this point - but I imagine can't be worse).

 

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

On 8/9/2020 at 5:46 AM, \GoBillsInDallas/ said:

 

 

oh you beat me to it!

[GoBills808]

9 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Just like every stat that points to him being good, there's one that says he isn't.  It'll have to play out on the field.  

I actually think the majority of stats point to Allen being a mid-tier starter on the upswing. The extreme takes on him both positive and negative are pretty hard to justify statistically imo

[YattaOkasan]

So this debate has me thinking about does Josh Allen have the clutch gene which many of us agree is real ( @GunnerBill) or is this stat about 4th quarter comebacks wrong again (Sanchez/Tebow), again agree this stat is not a good predictor.  
 

So far in this thread one of the unmentioned point is Allens 4th quarter numbers overall. Buffalo Fanatics said he was the BEST 4th quarter quarterback and I think it’s hard to disagree.  I will agree sometimes Josh is a big part of the reason we need a comeback. But based on his 4th quarter stats and the ways in which he put us on the door step of a tying or winning (Pats x2, Browns, Ravens, Texans) in other games, I think we can say he has the clutch gene.

He needs to get more consistent and then some of these will not be comebacks or will be game sealing drives.  But I think we can feel good he has a clutch gene. 

Edited August 11, 2020 by YattaOkasan

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

21 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The clutch gene, imo, is real. Wilson was actually questioned the same way his first 2 years. "Yea he has loads of game winning drives but easier to pull them off when your defense has held the opposition to 13 points." 

 

But as the Seattle D began to crumble Wilson kept pulling out 4th Quarter comebacks. He isn't pulling out 17-13 wins now it is 30-27 wins. That doesn't guarantee Josh will be the same (Wilson is freaking brilliant) but I think it is possible that the story is similar. 

 

Great point about Wilson. He was backed by a ridiculous defense his first 2-3 years in the league. And a solid ground game.

 

I like both the game winning drives stat for Allen and the 3rd and 10+ QB Rating/conversion percentage stat for Allen. Those are two qualities of a great QB in the making.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Nextmanup]

On 8/8/2020 at 10:01 PM, Penfield45 said:

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not gonna hate on Allen for his game winning drives. but our offense seriously needs to step up next season. We have a SB winning caliber defense with an offense than can barely score more than 2 TD's per game. 

 

Don't hate on Allen for his game winning drives.

 

Hate on him for his inability to play the QB position at a high enough level, consistently enough.

 

There's the rub.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

9 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Don't hate on Allen for his game winning drives.

 

Hate on him for his inability to play the QB position at a high enough level, consistently enough.

 

There's the rub.

 

 

Well said.  If he and the offense were consistent last year, there would have been no need for those game winning drives.  It’s one thing if this year, he brings us back for a 27-24 win against KC or Seattle.  It’s another thing when it’s a 17-10 win against Duck and 14-7 against Mariota.  
 

I pray this season happens because this will let us know if he’s the guy or not.