Qb vs Wr, who makes who?

[TwistofFate]

A lot of controversy has always surrounded the question, who makes who?  Is it the Qb responsible for the Wr's output, or is it the Wr responsible for the Qb's output?  In all actuality it's a bit of both.  But, if the data is analyzed and scrutinized, what would it look like and what would it mean?  Is there a way to determine based on data who is more responsible for the production and if so, what would it look like?

 

I ask this question because I fully expect many fans with logical capabilities to bring various facts and charts to the forefront to support their theory.  I know many on this forum will do so.  This will inject much data from multiple different view points.  This I believe will bring us closer to the question, who makes who?

 

Based on pure theoretical analysis, I will attempt to answer the question, who makes who.  I will supply two graphs as a visual aid to assist in my theory.

 

The first graph I will refer to as "the fall off."

 

 

The fall off graph, as seen above, represents what I would expect to see when a receiver is more responsible for overall yardage production than a Qb.  In this graph, the purple represents a stand out receiver.  An elite receiver, so to speak.  This receiver would make up the brunt of production based purely on his receiving abilities.  The drop off represents the fall off in receiver talent.  The elite receiver is capable of making catches that normally wouldn't be made, example, errant throws, one handed grabs, circus catches, etc.  This fall off would represent the rest of the receiving corps as lagging behind the top receiver, but is that because those receivers are inadequate receivers or that the top receiver is simply more capable of making much more difficult catches?

 

In theory, I would expect the results shown in graphs number 2, dubbed "the decline," as results that would better represent a Qb more responsible for production than a receiver.

 

 

The graph above would show clearly there is a number one receiver, but the production is more even distributed among the rest of the receiving group.  The theory behind this would suggest the Qb is more responsible for the passing production than the receiver, as he is elevating the game play of all those around him on a consistent basis.  On time, accurate passes would increase the production of nearly every Wr in the NFL.  There is a clear number 1, but the fall of is not as drastic for the rest, because they all would be catching mostly catchable passes they would be expected to catch.  The gradual decline would suggest a decline in WR talent in terms of not catching passes they shouldn't have caught.  Better WR's catch passes they shouldn't have normally caught. The cream rises to the top, so to speak.

 

Of course there are other variables that are involved in this.  Rooke WRs, new Wr's to the team, rapport between Wr and Qb, and receivers that are simply, not that good. But in pure terms of trying to evaluate who is more responsible for the production, I would expect to see graphs that are similar to these.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by TwistofFate

[Johnny Hammersticks]

???

 

Thoughts....

[MJS]

I like your fake graphs. Pretty.

[GoBills808]

Use attempts, targets, YPA, literally anything except two random bar graphs you copy pasted from some clipart 

[TwistofFate]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Use attempts, targets, YPA, literally anything except two random bar graphs you copy pasted from some clipart 

 Should I just use ANY/A to determine?  I know its your favorite.

[GoBills808]

Just now, TwistofFate said:

 Should I just use ANY/A to determine?  I know its your favorite.

Are you aware when I plug in the Bills and Texans data it proves Allen is more responsible for his WR production than Deshaun Watson. 

[GoBills808]

According to this Jacoby Brissett is more responsible for receiver production than Mahomes

[BruceVilanch]

there needs to be correlating data on your X and Y for any of that to make sense.

[TwistofFate]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Are you aware when I plug in the Bills and Texans data it proves Allen is more responsible for his WR production than Deshaun Watson. 

And what's wrong with that? 

 

Would you not agree Watson had a better receiver which in turn would lead to a drop off scenario? 

 

This is a theoretical analysis, which I stated in the third paragraph, that has to do with Qb/Wr relationships. 

 

The main topic of the thread is "who makes who."

 

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by TwistofFate

[GunnerBill]

Almost always it is the Quarterback who makes the receivers. That isn't to say that even really elite Quarterbacks aren't better with elite receivers, of course they are, but you can't prop up a dud QB by giving him great targets, whereas you definitely can hide a deficient receiving corps with high level Quarterbacking.

 

NOTE: None of what I say above is in any way about Josh Allen. Before anyone tries to misinterpret in that way.

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

A lot of controversy has always surrounded the question, who makes who?  Is it the Qb responsible for the Wr's output, or is it the Wr responsible for the Qb's output?  In all actuality it's a bit of both.  But, if the data is analyzed and scrutinized, what would it look like and what would it mean?  Is there a way to determine based on data who is more responsible for the production and if so, what would it look like?

 

I ask this question because I fully expect many fans with logical capabilities to bring various facts and charts to the forefront to support their theory.  I know many on this forum will do so.  This will inject much data from multiple different view points.  This I believe will bring us closer to the question, who makes who?

 

Based on pure theoretical analysis, I will attempt to answer the question, who makes who.  I will supply two graphs as a visual aid to assist in my theory.

 

The first graph I will refer to as "the fall off."

 

 

The fall off graph, as seen above, represents what I would expect to see when a receiver is more responsible for overall yardage production than a Qb.  In this graph, the purple represents a stand out receiver.  An elite receiver, so to speak.  This receiver would make up the brunt of production based purely on his receiving abilities.  The drop off represents the fall off in receiver talent.  The elite receiver is capable of making catches that normally wouldn't be made, example, errant throws, one handed grabs, circus catches, etc.  This fall off would represent the rest of the receiving corps as lagging behind the top receiver, but is that because those receivers are inadequate receivers or that the top receiver is simply more capable of making much more difficult catches?

 

In theory, I would expect the results shown in graphs number 2, dubbed "the decline," as results that would better represent a Qb more responsible for production than a receiver.

 

 

The graph above would show clearly there is a number one receiver, but the production is more even distributed among the rest of the receiving group.  The theory behind this would suggest the Qb is more responsible for the passing production than the receiver, as he is elevating the game play of all those around him on a consistent basis.  On time, accurate passes would increase the production of nearly every Wr in the NFL.  There is a clear number 1, but the fall of is not as drastic for the rest, because they all would be catching mostly catchable passes they would be expected to catch.  The gradual decline would suggest a decline in WR talent in terms of not catching passes they shouldn't have caught.  Better WR's catch passes they shouldn't have normally caught. The cream rises to the top, so to speak.

 

Of course there are other variables that are involved in this.  Rooke WRs, new Wr's to the team, rapport between Wr and Qb, and receivers that are simply, not that good. But in pure terms of trying to evaluate who is more responsible for the production, I would expect to see graphs that are similar to these.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

Honestly neither of those graphs or scenarios would prove or show a thing about who makes who.  All either would show is the pass distribution and catch ratios - it does not show what or who is fully responsible.  It is impacted by play design, offensive system, freedom of QB to make decisions, team talent, coaching and game plans, etc.

 

If you truly want to see who makes who you need year over year studies of QB and WRs that change location and the impact the change had.  Even that is flawed as systems are different so things happen that can not be accounted for.

 

For example in Pittsburgh with a limited sample size - losing AB seemed to have a big impact early in the season on Big Ben, but then he got hurt - destroying the ability to analyze the data set.  If you had the whole year you could see more acutely what the impact of AB was to the passing offense and the impact on the QB and the other receivers.  
 

The same could be done with AB on his new team if he had stayed sane - you can look at the impact and determined if he increased the QB production or not and make some projections on that.

 

You could try using Tennessee and seeing the difference in Mariota versus Tannehill to see if he made the WRs better, but I don’t think you will see a conclusive data set.

 

I believe to be successful need a QB with talent to distribute the ball and WRs to get open and catch the darn thing.  Just based on the current NFL - a good QB can do more because of his singular impact on a game - than 1 game changing WR, but 1 game changing WR can also be the key to unlocking a QBs potential if the timing is right.

[machine gun kelly]

As GB said, this comment is not on Allen, just my general feeling is QB’s make the WR.  I know everyone hates Brady, but look at how he made average WR’s look excellent.  We’ll see how Stidham does this year compared to what Brady has accomplished.  Brady is just one example, but you can have excellent WR’s, but if the QB can’t place the ball where only he can catch it, then there are problems.  Certainly excellent WR’s help, but it’s a synergy.  On a positive note, I am excited for what Allen can do this year.  Three excellent WRs, two very promising RBs, and a TE who has promise in Knox.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Mariota versus Tannehill is not a good pair to use an an example imo.  The only difference to me is that I think people expect Mariota to run more on designed plays than Tannehill. 

 

Both are decent to good QB's (under most cases). 

Both will never be thought of a Franchise QB.  (ok ok  fans of that team might think so) 

Both QB's have beaten the Patriots. 

Both QB's have won a Playoff game.  

 

 

Tawmy Brady "made" dozens of receivers in NE.  On a regular basis. (or was it the blind refs not flagging ... I digress) Many were "nothing special" before or after the NE**.

Tyrod Taylor is a good example of making receivers look bad.  (Look at the WR list that left during or after TT's Buffalo career) .  How guys like Charles Clay not be used properly at TE?

 

That ^ is the example you should use.  

2 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

As GB said, this comment is not on Allen, just my general feeling is QB’s make the WR.  I know everyone hates Brady, but look at how he made average WR’s look excellent.  We’ll see how Stidham does this year compared to what Brady has accomplished.  Brady is just one example, but you can have excellent WR’s, but if the QB can’t place the ball where only he can catch it, then there are problems.  Certainly excellent WR’s help, but it’s a synergy.  On a positive note, I am excited for what Allen can do this year.  Three excellent WRs, two very promising RBs, and a TE who has promise in Knox.

 

Beat me too it by this much lol   ... But I did add a counter     

Edited May 28, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[Thurman#1]

Varies from QB to QB and from WR to WR.

 

More, it's a complex system with a million variables. The correct answer, really, is that they affect each other.

 

But overall, the QB makes the WR more than vice versa. The QB doesn't have to throw to a WR. You look at how great a receiver Will Fuller is and how little he got thrown to because of Deandre Hopkins being on that team. Look at Robert Woods' career.

 

Anyone think Deshawn Watson is going to suck now that he's lost the best WR in football?

Edited May 28, 2020 by Thurman#1

[FireChans]

Targets make WR’s look good. Good QB’s also make WR’s look good. Good WR’s don’t make bad QB’s look good.

[Don Otreply]

They make each other, as long as both have a minimum level of skill. Its a chicken or the egg question, can’t have one without the other. 

[Gugny]

7 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Thoughts?

 

 

Bravo!

[BuffaloBillies]

The correct answer is...

 

[Ya Digg?]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

The correct answer is...

 

 

This is way off, you have 1 red dot in the wrong place

[Clutchwarfare]

I think Larry Fitzgerald is a good example of a WR who didn't need legendary QB play to make him a hall of fame receiver.

But then again, I think Tom Brady is a good example of a QB who didn't need legendary WR play to make him Hall of Fame QB.

So I guess this debate can go either way based on the player in question.

GO BILLS!

 

[T master]

There was a post earlier this yr that showed how many balls were dropped last season by the Bills WR's which if they were caught (of course) could have helped Josh with his completion percentage by bringing in Diggs (if he is who we think he is) he should increase Allen's percentage just by being on the field .

 

Add to that the fact that Josh has been working on his long ball the jump in production this yr should be more than noticeable !! 

[BuffaloBillies]

21 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

 

This is way off, you have 1 red dot in the wrong place

 

There are typically outliers in every data set. I left it in for completeness.

I think that one was a shovel pass that went for a 98 yard TD.

[stuvian]

Brandon Marshall, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss are good case studies of WRs who have played under different QBs of varying quality

[K-9]

[Yantha]

Graphs aside, it's an interesting core question.  We all hate Brady.  Let's just get that out of the way...  but we have to look at him in relation to this question.

Undeniably, he's been one of the best QB's in this league with numerous MVP awards, well over 10 Probowls, 6 Superbowls, and 3 Superbowl MVP awards.  

 

So is Brady a product of his WR's or vice versa?  Plus there's the O-LINE discussion that should be noted.  Do O-LINE'S make a QB?  

 

If you don't want to talk about Brady, a similar discussion can be had about Montana, Peyton Manning, Favre, Elway, Marino, or Brees...  But I thought that Bills fans would know their ENEMY the best, so Brady it is....

 

First off, Brady has arguably enjoyed one of the most consistently good O-lines in the league.  He can stand in the pocket and get the ball out quick.  His coaches always drew up a playbook that plays to his strengths.  Getting the ball out quick, with a few well timed deep balls.  I'd say Brady's O-line has MORE to do with his production over the years than his wide receivers, but here's a closer look at his "targets" over the past 3 years.

 

Personally, I see these lists as "stable hands" with the top WR's as being great route runners, and not "big time, deep threat, stars".  Randy Moss might have been that guy, but it's the exception to the Patriots rule IMO.  Add to that one of the better TE's over the years with Gronk, and you've got an amazing "game managing, short game".  Get the ball out quick, exploit mismatches, and outsmart defensive game planning.

 

The bottom line for me, is that the GREAT QB's are not great on their own.  They have:  1.  Consistently SOLID O-lines., 2.  Smart game planning/coaching., 3.  Solid WR's with top notch route running skills, but they don't have to be superstar deep threats.  

 

IF BRADY WAS DRAFTED BY THE BROWNS, HE WOULD BE A NOBODY TODAY.

 

2019/20:

12-4, 1st AFC East, Lost Wildcard Playoffs

 

2018/19:

11-5, 1st AFC East, Won the Superbowl

 

2017/18:

13-3, 1st AFC East, Lost the Superbowl

 

We can go further back, but that's too much work... They have made the playoffs every single year since Brady took over at QB, with NINE Superbowl appearances, and 5 wins.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Yantha
removed duplicated data

[Yav]

10 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

According to this Jacoby Brissett is more responsible for receiver production than Mahomes

Well, to be fair when a QB is throwing to the best WR in the game and said WR can adjust to under grown balls consistently it would be correct that the WR is making the QB look better. 

[Mango]

They can make each other better. But I think a good to great QB can elevate a mediocre receiving Corp higher than a good to great receiving Corp elevates a bad QB. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Mango

[prissythecat]

32 minutes ago, Yantha said:

Graphs aside, it's an interesting core question.  We all hate Brady.  Let's just get that out of the way...  but we have to look at him in relation to this question.

Undeniably, he's been one of the best QB's in this league with numerous MVP awards, well over 10 Probowls, 6 Superbowls, and 3 Superbowl MVP awards.  

 

So is Brady a product of his WR's or vice versa?  Plus there's the O-LINE discussion that should be noted.  Do O-LINE'S make a QB?  

 

If you don't want to talk about Brady, a similar discussion can be had about Montana, Peyton Manning, Favre, Elway, Marino, or Brees...  But I thought that Bills fans would know their ENEMY the best, so Brady it is....

 

First off, Brady has arguably enjoyed one of the most consistently good O-lines in the league.  He can stand in the pocket and get the ball out quick.  His coaches always drew up a playbook that plays to his strengths.  Getting the ball out quick, with a few well timed deep balls.  I'd say Brady's O-line has MORE to do with his production over the years than his wide receivers, but here's a closer look at his "targets" over the past 3 years.

 

Personally, I see these lists as "stable hands" with the top WR's as being great route runners, and not "big time, deep threat, stars".  Randy Moss might have been that guy, but it's the exception to the Patriots rule IMO.  Add to that one of the better TE's over the years with Gronk, and you've got an amazing "game managing, short game".  Get the ball out quick, exploit mismatches, and outsmart defensive game planning.

 

The bottom line for me, is that the GREAT QB's are not great on their own.  They have:  1.  Consistently SOLID O-lines., 2.  Smart game planning/coaching., 3.  Solid WR's with top notch route running skills, but they don't have to be superstar deep threats.  

 

IF BRADY WAS DRAFTED BY THE BROWNS, HE WOULD BE A NOBODY TODAY.

 

2019/20:

12-4, 1st AFC East, Lost Wildcard Playoffs

 

2018/19:

11-5, 1st AFC East, Won the Superbowl

 

2017/18:

13-3, 1st AFC East, Lost the Superbowl

 

We can go further back, but that's too much work... They have made the playoffs every single year since Brady took over at QB, with NINE Superbowl appearances, and 5 wins.

 

 

Make some nice points in general.   Though ,  I believe the Patriots failed to make the playoffs the year Brady had ACL injury?  They went 11-5 but lost the division to Miami?

[Gugny]

42 minutes ago, Yantha said:

Graphs aside, it's an interesting core question.  We all hate Brady.  Let's just get that out of the way...  but we have to look at him in relation to this question.

Undeniably, he's been one of the best QB's in this league with numerous MVP awards, well over 10 Probowls, 6 Superbowls, and 3 Superbowl MVP awards.  

 

So is Brady a product of his WR's or vice versa?  Plus there's the O-LINE discussion that should be noted.  Do O-LINE'S make a QB?  

 

If you don't want to talk about Brady, a similar discussion can be had about Montana, Peyton Manning, Favre, Elway, Marino, or Brees...  But I thought that Bills fans would know their ENEMY the best, so Brady it is....

 

First off, Brady has arguably enjoyed one of the most consistently good O-lines in the league.  He can stand in the pocket and get the ball out quick.  His coaches always drew up a playbook that plays to his strengths.  Getting the ball out quick, with a few well timed deep balls.  I'd say Brady's O-line has MORE to do with his production over the years than his wide receivers, but here's a closer look at his "targets" over the past 3 years.

 

Personally, I see these lists as "stable hands" with the top WR's as being great route runners, and not "big time, deep threat, stars".  Randy Moss might have been that guy, but it's the exception to the Patriots rule IMO.  Add to that one of the better TE's over the years with Gronk, and you've got an amazing "game managing, short game".  Get the ball out quick, exploit mismatches, and outsmart defensive game planning.

 

The bottom line for me, is that the GREAT QB's are not great on their own.  They have:  1.  Consistently SOLID O-lines., 2.  Smart game planning/coaching., 3.  Solid WR's with top notch route running skills, but they don't have to be superstar deep threats.  

 

IF BRADY WAS DRAFTED BY THE BROWNS, HE WOULD BE A NOBODY TODAY.

 

2019/20:

12-4, 1st AFC East, Lost Wildcard Playoffs

 

2018/19:

11-5, 1st AFC East, Won the Superbowl

 

2017/18:

13-3, 1st AFC East, Lost the Superbowl

 

We can go further back, but that's too much work... They have made the playoffs every single year since Brady took over at QB, with NINE Superbowl appearances, and 5 wins.

 

"IF BRADY WAS DRAFTED BY THE BROWNS, HE WOULD BE A NOBODY TODAY."

 

I actually think your data proves otherwise.  It tells me that Brady is the only common denominator and he would have been the GOAT anywhere.

 

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Varies from QB to QB and from WR to WR.

 

More, it's a complex system with a million variables. The correct answer, really, is that they affect each other.

 

But overall, the QB makes the WR more than vice versa. The QB doesn't have to throw to a WR. You look at how great a receiver Will Fuller is and how little he got thrown to because of Deandre Hopkins being on that team. Look at Robert Woods' career.

 

Anyone think Deshawn Watson is going to suck now that he's lost the best WR in football?

I think he's going to have a bad year, yes.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think he's going to have a bad year, yes.

 

That's gonna ruffle a certain Englishman's feathers...

 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

That's gonna ruffle a certain Englishman's feathers...

 

 

Yea. He won't. Will his numbers be down slightly? Think it possible. Bad year? No way. The Texans I expect to be worse, but Watson can play.

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. He won't. Will his numbers be down slightly? Think it possible. Bad year? No way. The Texans I expect to be worse, but Watson can play.

Yea. He will. 

 

Allen puts up better numbers than Watson this year across the board. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yea. He will. 

 

Allen puts up better numbers than Watson this year across the board. 

 

Wait wait, gotta get some popcorn

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Wait wait, gotta get some popcorn

 

Nah. See while I have the courage of my convictions, some folks won't put their $$ where their mouth is.

[mjd1001]

QB makes the WR.....Unless your name is Randy Moss and you can just have your QB throw it 50 yards downfield and you jump and get the ball.

Moss made Culpepper in those years Culpupper put up those big stats.....QB makes the WR in most other situations.

 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Nah. See while I have the courage of my convictions, some folks won't put their $$ where their mouth is.

 

We have done this before. Why would I create a rooting interest for the Bills to be bad? It is nonsensical to me. I don't bet serious money on my own sports teams for good or bad and I am not going to start because you think I should in your internet tough guy mode. 

 

You wanna do a $50 charity bet where the loser pays $50 to a charity of the winner's choice I am in. Anything else? Nah. It isn't for me. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We have done this before. Why would I create a rooting interest for the Bills to be bad? It is nonsensical to me. I don't bet serious money on my own sports teams for good or bad and I am not going to start because you think I should in your internet tough guy mode. 

 

You wanna do a $50 charity bet where the loser pays $50 to a charity of the winner's choice I am in. Anything else? Nah. It isn't for me. 

The fact that my proposing a wager is viewed by you as 'internet tough guy mode'...smh. 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Yea. He will. 

 

Allen puts up better numbers than Watson this year across the board. 

What’s the wager?  Pick.  This isn’t even a knock on Allen but I think Watson is top 10.  Watson is awesome

37 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The fact that my proposing a wager is viewed by you as 'internet tough guy mode'...smh. 

Dude, he gave you a bet

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We have done this before. Why would I create a rooting interest for the Bills to be bad? It is nonsensical to me. I don't bet serious money on my own sports teams for good or bad and I am not going to start because you think I should in your internet tough guy mode. 

 

You wanna do a $50 charity bet where the loser pays $50 to a charity of the winner's choice I am in. Anything else? Nah. It isn't for me. 

It’s an American thing. Don’t take it personal.  And this is a no lose bet.  If Allen is better than Watson, the Bills are SB contenders.

[Billl]

Look at the Colts when Manning got hurt.  They won the Suck for Luck sweepstakes and were a playoff team soon thereafter.  Losing elite QBs sends teams into a tailspin.  Losing elite WRs hurts, but Mahomes kept rolling when Tyreek was out. In his first ever game (week 17 at Denver in 2017), the Chiefs rested nearly all of their starters.  Albert Wilson and Demetrius Harris combined for 13 catches and 220 yards against one of the best defenses in the league.  
 

WRs are gasoline, but QBs are the fire.

 

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Billl