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SI Article: forget about sports this year


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1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

It would be easier to forget about Sports Illustrated instead.  I'd pretty much already done that in fact

 

in all seriousness, SI seems to have become a publication that doesn't like sports very much

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1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Well, somebody isn’t bothering to stay current.

China has already opened up Baseball, Japan Baseball is in Spring Training and South Korea is about to begin play.


I think we are projecting a lot of the worst worries from being in the thick of it to a time months from now without accounting for reality being far below the worst worries even currently. 
 

would not be shocked if the nfl played but allowed refunds to at risk fans for instance 

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1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

No one knows nuthin bout nuthin and these doom and gloom articles are nonsense at this point.  It's kinda like running presidential polls in February when the election is in November.

 

Sports will return and this will pass.  I cannot imagine the rabid NFL fans sitting idly by and not being able to tailgate.  That will not go over well.  

 

I still remember tailgating in the fall of 2009 amid the H1N1 virus.  People were scared but out and about.  

 

 

I agree , i think football , life as we know it , with a few adjustments , returns sooner than we imagine.. 

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36 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

 

I want normal, I want sports too, but even talking about opening up the country or sports right now is incredibly short sighted. 

 

I do agree with this but I think if the US isn't ready to open again by September it has probably take some wrong decisions somewhere along the line. If we get a double peak there will be no NFL. If we can avoid that my gut instinct is still that there will be.

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I think there will be a season and it will be on time. Training camp and pre-season will be in jeopardy or happen in some different fashion, but the regular season will happen on time. In the vast majority of the country, this thing has already peaked and I see a steady, but slow return to normalcy over the next few months with summer being relatively close to business as usual. The only way it is postponed is if we see this thing spiking in the fall again, but I believe there may be better and widespread testing and treatment to prevent the wholesale panic and unknown of the last few months. I can't see people going for another shutdown again like we are in, though. I think people are more likely to try to tough it out for their livelihoods and they will want entertainment. With widespread quick testing (which is rolling out now), it'll be easy- test positive and you can't go to the game or work. The one big challenge is the players themselves. If a player contracts the virus and then brings it to the rest of the team, you could have a scenario where a good chunk of the team is a mini-hotspot and is out for 2-3 weeks. That simply would not work. There would be zero fan/player interaction (i.e. the first ten rows of stadium  would be empty) and the players would be basically isolated all season while they played or something along those lines. There is enough money at stake that someone will come up with a plan. 

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1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Well, somebody isn’t bothering to stay current.

China has already opened up Baseball, Japan Baseball is in Spring Training and South Korea is about to begin play.

Lmao yeah, they are the model to follow. Gtfo 

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53 minutes ago, wiseman3 said:

If you think there won't be sports, then you have to accept that there won't be school as well. What is the difference between thousands of students packing into schools every day and thousands of fans packing a stadium once a week? 

Age no ? and the effects on the young..which seem to be minimal

37 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

We don't know for sure if doctors will ever come up with a vaccine.  And even if they do, it will be at least 2021 before they can complete full testing/clinical trials and be confident it doesn't cause disastrous side-effects.

 

If people are planning to wait for a vaccine before they are willing to re-open society, then a lot of these things we love are going to disappear permanently.  And professional sports are not exempt from that.  Even billionaires don't have an infinite amount of money to just sit on the sidelines without income for 12-18 months.  I was reading yesterday that Disney is losing $20-30 million PER DAY by having their parks closed.  Many of these NFL owners are taking huge losses on multiple areas of their business.

 

Listening to health experts, there are multiple ways (even without a vaccine) that we can gradually work our way back into normalcy.  This includes getting back to large public gatherings like sports.

 

One is by offering extensive testing, which can identify who has the virus currently (so they can be quarantined faster) and who has already recovered from it.  Once a person has recovered, they are immune and can be released to operate as normal without being a risk of getting infected again or being a carrier and infecting another person.  This is called herd immunity.  It's very likely that MANY people have already had this and didn't even know.  As you can imagine, coming up with 328 million tests for every individual in the country is a very tall task.  So right now, the tests are being prioritized for those showing serious symptoms.  But as time goes along, it's more likely we can achieve the ability to test most, if not all Americans.

 

Second is by discovering medicines, drugs and treatments for the virus.  This will not take anywhere near as long as a vaccine, especially if something is found among currently FDA-approved drugs.  There are already multiple treatments (specifically those currently used to treat Malaria and Ebola) which are already being prescribed by doctors for critically-ill patients and proving to be very effective against this virus. 

 

Third is by making adjustments to our practices at large gatherings.  Requiring people to wear masks.  Taking temperatures at the door/gate.  Taking extra steps to sanitize.  Etc.

 

Agree with the entirety of this post..very smart man you are that we think alike?

 

In terms of how many people have had it...i will look for the link but I am watching CNBC right now and one the hosts said NY Presbyterian Hospital admitted 200 women in the last little while for childbirth, allasymptomatic, and 39 tested poitive for the Rona...and thats great news( I think)

 

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56 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I mean is it? Everyone is being told to stay in their homes and we can't even handle that. You think all these millionaire professional athletes, not to mention all the support staff who have families are just going to self isolate for 4 months for your entertainment?

 

Almost 24,000 people have died in the US from this. Just under 3000 died on 9/11. We have been dumping money around the world, sending soldiers to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan to keep us safe from one 9/11 happening again. We've already had that for 8 days now and were a month into dealing with this. 

 

I want normal, I want sports too, but even talking about opening up the country or sports right now is incredibly short sighted. 

 

 

Yes, it absolutely is easier to control 300 people than 70,000. They don’t have to follow any rules if they don’t want to, that is their right. They can run around town every night of the week. The only time they will be isolated is the day before game day after they get their rapid test. They aren’t living in isolation for the entire season. 

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5 minutes ago, SF Bills Fan said:

I think there will be a season and it will be on time. Training camp and pre-season will be in jeopardy or happen in some different fashion, but the regular season will happen on time. In the vast majority of the country, this thing has already peaked and I see a steady, but slow return to normalcy over the next few months with summer being relatively close to business as usual. The only way it is postponed is if we see this thing spiking in the fall again, but I believe there may be better and widespread testing and treatment to prevent the wholesale panic and unknown of the last few months. I can't see people going for another shutdown again like we are in, though. I think people are more likely to try to tough it out for their livelihoods and they will want entertainment. With widespread quick testing (which is rolling out now), it'll be easy- test positive and you can't go to the game or work. The one big challenge is the players themselves. If a player contracts the virus and then brings it to the rest of the team, you could have a scenario where a good chunk of the team is a mini-hotspot and is out for 2-3 weeks. That simply would not work. There would be zero fan/player interaction (i.e. the first ten rows of stadium  would be empty) and the players would be basically isolated all season while they played or something along those lines. There is enough money at stake that someone will come up with a plan. 

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Speaking of training camp and the off-season. I would think teams like the Bills have an advantage being that McDermott is going into his 4th season. Same OC/DC so the players know the system and schemes that are in place. Team has already built up a lot of chemistry with one another which helps considering they won't have much time on the field now. No mini-camp, rookie camp, OTA's. Diggs while a vet will probably need some time to develop chemistry with Allen and the offense in general but he will probably get there quickly. I would imagine every team will have a hard time getting their draft picks up to speed with so little practice time before the season though.

 

At the other end of the spectrum is Giants rookie HC Joe Judge going into his first year in what will be a major rebuild. It's hard for a first year HC in a normal offseason but with this being difficult times it only makes his job that much harder.

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48 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

We don't know for sure if doctors will ever come up with a vaccine.  And even if they do, it will be at least 2021 before they can complete full testing/clinical trials and be confident it doesn't cause disastrous side-effects.

 

If people are planning to wait for a vaccine before they are willing to re-open society, then a lot of these things we love are going to disappear permanently.  And professional sports are not exempt from that.  Even billionaires don't have an infinite amount of money to just sit on the sidelines without income for 12-18 months.  I was reading yesterday that Disney is losing $20-30 million PER DAY by having their parks closed.  Many of these NFL owners are taking huge losses on multiple areas of their business.

 

Listening to health experts, there are multiple ways (even without a vaccine) that we can gradually work our way back into normalcy.  This includes getting back to large public gatherings like sports.

 

One is by offering extensive testing, which can identify who has the virus currently (so they can be quarantined faster) and who has already recovered from it.  Once a person has recovered, they are immune and can be released to operate as normal without being a risk of getting infected again or being a carrier and infecting another person.  This is called herd immunity.  It's very likely that MANY people have already had this and didn't even know.  As you can imagine, coming up with 328 million tests for every individual in the country is a very tall task.  So right now, the tests are being prioritized for those showing serious symptoms.  But as time goes along, it's more likely we can achieve the ability to test most, if not all Americans.

 

Second is by discovering medicines, drugs and treatments for the virus.  This will not take anywhere near as long as a vaccine, especially if something is found among currently FDA-approved drugs.  There are already multiple treatments (specifically those currently used to treat Malaria and Ebola) which are already being prescribed by doctors for critically-ill patients and proving to be very effective against this virus. 

 

Third is by making adjustments to our practices at large gatherings.  Requiring people to wear masks.  Taking temperatures at the door/gate.  Taking extra steps to sanitize.  Etc.

 

Great post!

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3 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Speaking of training camp and the off-season. I would think teams like the Bills have an advantage being that McDermott is going into his 4th season. Same OC/DC so the players know the system and schemes that are in place. Team has already built up a lot of chemistry with one another which helps considering they won't have much time on the field now. No mini-camp, rookie camp, OTA's. Diggs while a vet will probably need some time to develop chemistry with Allen and the offense in general but he will probably get there quickly. I would imagine every team will have a hard time getting their draft picks up to speed with so little practice time before the season though.

 

At the other end of the spectrum is Giants rookie HC Joe Judge going into his first year in what will be a major rebuild. It's hard for a first year HC in a normal offseason but with this being difficult times it only makes his job that much harder.

That is an interesting observation and likely very true. The preseason will be very tough for an early stage rebuilding team with a new coach, especially if much of it is virtual. It will be strange times for all teams though. The virtual draft will be interesting. I'll miss the fat Jets fans all standing and booing no matter who they pick. 

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2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

No one knows nuthin bout nuthin and these doom and gloom articles are nonsense at this point.  It's kinda like running presidential polls in February when the election is in November.

 

Sports will return and this will pass.  I cannot imagine the rabid NFL fans sitting idly by and not being able to tailgate.  That will not go over well.  

 

I still remember tailgating in the fall of 2009 amid the H1N1 virus.  People were scared but out and about.  

 

 

It's been bizarre to watch pessimism increase as our death toll looks more and more like its going to come in at a fraction of the best case scenarios of just two weeks ago.

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23 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

a few weeks ago they were predicting millions of deaths. now looking more like under 100k. who knows where we will be in a month. 

 

The original predictions were assuming no widespread social distancing policies. The new predictions are assuming we continue the current social distancing policies. You have to read beyond the headlines with this stuff because the media is notoriously bad at reporting science.

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3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The original predictions were assuming no widespread social distancing policies. The new predictions are assuming we continue the current social distancing policies. You have to read beyond the headlines with this stuff because the media is notoriously bad at reporting science.

 

if the original predictions did not include social distancing then they are not as smart as you think they are. the originals were high side 2-3 mil dead low side in the mid hundreds of thousands. even they didnt predict how well the shut down so far as gone. 

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21 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Yes, it absolutely is easier to control 300 people than 70,000. They don’t have to follow any rules if they don’t want to, that is their right. They can run around town every night of the week. The only time they will be isolated is the day before game day after they get their rapid test. They aren’t living in isolation for the entire season. 

Read the article posted in the beginning of this thread. People who study infectious disease say they will absolutely have to live in isolation for the season. If one person tests positive, shut it down for two weeks at a minimum 

 

That is no way to run a sports league

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1 minute ago, aristocrat said:

 

if the original predictions did not include social distancing then they are not as smart as you think they are. the originals were high side 2-3 mil dead low side in the mid hundreds of thousands. even they didnt predict how well the shut down so far as gone. 

Disease predictions are always incredibly inflated. Go look at the swine flu projections. We didn't even get to 10% of those numbers. And we won't for coronavirus either.

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1 minute ago, MJS said:

Disease predictions are always incredibly inflated. Go look at the swine flu projections. We didn't even get to 10% of those numbers. And we won't for coronavirus either.

They look at worst case scenarios. They wont get that high because we practiced social distancing and listened to medical people 

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The NFL has the luxury of time, they can wait 8 weeks until mid-June to make a final decision on the season. Unlike the other 3 major sports leagues which are losing time in their seasons now. However the NFL might have to make some difficult decisions then but there are just far too many variables for them to wait through. 

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1 minute ago, Captain Hindsight said:

They look at worst case scenarios. They wont get that high because we practiced social distancing and listened to medical people 

No, it's that projecting things without having even 5% of the data is impossible (projections even with 100% of the data are still inacurate because most data are volatile). And things such as death rate and hospitalization rate can't be calculated until you have the total number of cases, which even now is impossible to know. We won't really know those things until more than a year after the pandemic has passed.

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26 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Yes, it absolutely is easier to control 300 people than 70,000. They don’t have to follow any rules if they don’t want to, that is their right. They can run around town every night of the week. The only time they will be isolated is the day before game day after they get their rapid test. They aren’t living in isolation for the entire season. 

 Not following the “rules” is why our country has more deaths from C-19 than any other country.  Nuthin but luv for ya...  

 

Stay healthy, stay smart Bills Nation!!!

 

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6 minutes ago, MJS said:

Disease predictions are always incredibly inflated. Go look at the swine flu projections. We didn't even get to 10% of those numbers. And we won't for coronavirus either.

 

They model based on the worst case scenario and no action taken. They then project forward based on action taken, the models have been pretty accurate as they get adjusted to the actions the nation/states have taken. 

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Hi, I read TBD almost every day.  Thanks everyone for posting!  I really enjoy the extra content this site brings.  I'm posting today for the first time only because I would feel guilty if I didn't.  There is some good news out there.  It just hasn't gotten a lot of traction yet.  I know a few people in the medical field.  They tell me:

 

- They were going to have to all do shifts in NYC to help out, but all of that has been cancelled.  They no longer need the help.

- Their hospital, which normally runs at 120% capacity, is currently at 50%.  I know that is because elective procedures have been cancelled, but a few weeks ago there was a real fear that that space was needed to handle the influx of covid patients.  

- This is causing some doctors to be laid off.  Think about that.  We are in the middle of a health crisis and we are able to lay off some of our health professionals.

- Out in Washington State they are dismantling a temporary field hospital they built and returning ventilators back to the supply.

- A friend of mine believes she has Coronavirus.  When she went in to get tested, they sent her home without a test and told her that, at this point, they would not treat her any different if she tested positive.  I know that, at first glance, that sounds like bad news, but it shows that we have seen these improvements while we still don't even have wide spread testing yet.  It also means that any fatality percentage numbers we are seeing are skewed when we are not even testing people with symptoms.

- Another doctor told me that they believe the mortality rate of this disease will be in the area of 0.3% to 0.5%, which is way lower than we feared.  

- He pointed me to Iceland and the UAE as examples since they have done so well with testing.  Most everyone there with symptoms is being tested.  Iceland has tested over 10% of its population.  They have 8 deaths and 1711 cases.  The UAE has tested 6.5% of their population.  They have 25 deaths and 4521 cases.

- This likely means that many more in America have already had the disease.

 

All of this is very positive news, so take heart.  2-3 weeks ago, it looked like it could have been MUCH worse than this.  We still have a long way to go, but things look much brighter than they did at one point.

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1 hour ago, wiseman3 said:

If you think there won't be sports, then you have to accept that there won't be school as well. What is the difference between thousands of students packing into schools every day and thousands of fans packing a stadium once a week? 

There is a chance this can happen, sad as that is, we can only play the cards life deals...

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2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

No one knows nuthin bout nuthin and these doom and gloom articles are nonsense at this point.  It's kinda like running presidential polls in February when the election is in November.

 

Sports will return and this will pass.  I cannot imagine the rabid NFL fans sitting idly by and not being able to tailgate.  That will not go over well.  

 

I still remember tailgating in the fall of 2009 amid the H1N1 virus.  People were scared but out and about.  

 

 

 

H1N1 was around for a full year and was highly contagious, but had a very, very low mortality rate. The US CDC has estimated the US cases at 60.8 million with 12,469 people dying from the disease. Covid-19 has been around for a couple of months with 588,469 confirmed cases(Estimates later on will bring this number higher) with 23,711 confirmed deaths. Again though later estimates of the dead will go much higher as people dying at home & hospitals that were/are untested are not going into the final tally.

 

These are 2 totally different viruses with 2 totally different mortality rates. Covid-19's mortality rate is currently 4.0% while H1N1's was .0002%. Covid-19's mortality rate is 20,000 times higher. In comparison if the same 4% died from H1N1 there would've been over 2.43 million deaths. This isn't an apples to apples comparison. The easiest way to look at it is the World didn't shutdown for H1N1 like it has for the Covid-19 virus. The last time the US shutdown to a pandemic, I believe, was in 1918. Covid-19 has been repeatedly called a once in a century pandemic.

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3 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

H1N1 was around for a full year and was highly contagious, but had a very, very low mortality rate. The US CDC has estimated the US cases at 60.8 million with 12,469 people dying from the disease. Covid-19 has been around for a couple of months with 588,469 confirmed cases(Estimates later on will bring this number higher) with 23,711 confirmed deaths. Again though later estimates of the dead will go much higher as people dying at home & hospitals that were/are untested are not going into the final tally.

 

These are 2 totally different viruses with 2 totally different mortality rates. Covid-19's mortality rate is currently 4.0% while H1N1's was .0002%. Covid-19's mortality rate is 20,000 times higher. In comparison if the same 4% died from H1N1 there would've been over 2.43 million deaths. This isn't an apples to apples comparison. The easiest way to look at it is the World didn't shutdown for H1N1 like it has for the Covid-19 virus. The last time the US shutdown to a pandemic, I believe, was in 1918. Covid-19 has been repeatedly called a once in a century pandemic.

This is all wrong.  First off, covid-19 mortality rate is going to be most likely less then 1% when the numbers are adjusted for all the people that had it and never got tested or even knew.  Secondly H1N1 had a mortality rate of .02% not .0002%.  Corona virus is not 20000 times more deadly like you're saying.  Just totally wrong.

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35 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

if the original predictions did not include social distancing then they are not as smart as you think they are.

 

The original predictions were made in that way to encourage social distancing and as a result we were able to get the virus relatively under control. Epidemiological predictions aren't made in a vacuum.

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1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

There are already multiple treatments (specifically those currently used to treat Malaria and Ebola) which are already being prescribed by doctors for critically-ill patients and proving to be very effective against this virus. 

 


link(s) for the ‘very effective’ part of this for C19 critically ill or otherwise?

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8 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

This is all wrong.  First off, covid-19 mortality rate is going to be most likely less then 1% when the numbers are adjusted for all the people that had it and never got tested or even knew.  Secondly H1N1 had a mortality rate of .02% not .0002%.  Corona virus is not 20000 times more deadly like you're saying.  Just totally wrong.

 

12,469 divided by 60.8 million is .0002, unless math has changed and I'm not aware of it. That is the US's mortality rate, I only used US numbers for both viruses. Also I did mention the final estimate of cases was going to be higher, but so will the deaths from it as places like NYC has had a ton of people dying in their homes and hospitals that were never tested and currently their deaths are not going into the final tally, but they will in the end. Again these numbers are straight from the CDC's own website. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

 

 

 

 

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Just now, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

12,469 divided by 60.8 million is .0002, unless math has changed and I'm not aware of it. That is the US's mortality rate, I only used US numbers for both viruses. Also I did mention the final estimate of cases was going to be higher, but so will the deaths from it as places like NYC has had a ton of people dying in their homes and hospitals that were never tested and currently their deaths are not going into the final tally, but they will in the end. Again these numbers are straight from the CDC's own website. 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

 

 

 

 

.0002 is not .0002% like you said.  There's a big difference.

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18 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

H1N1 was around for a full year and was highly contagious, but had a very, very low mortality rate. The US CDC has estimated the US cases at 60.8 million with 12,469 people dying from the disease. Covid-19 has been around for a couple of months with 588,469 confirmed cases(Estimates later on will bring this number higher) with 23,711 confirmed deaths. Again though later estimates of the dead will go much higher as people dying at home & hospitals that were/are untested are not going into the final tally.

 

These are 2 totally different viruses with 2 totally different mortality rates. Covid-19's mortality rate is currently 4.0% while H1N1's was .0002%. Covid-19's mortality rate is 20,000 times higher. In comparison if the same 4% died from H1N1 there would've been over 2.43 million deaths. This isn't an apples to apples comparison. The easiest way to look at it is the World didn't shutdown for H1N1 like it has for the Covid-19 virus. The last time the US shutdown to a pandemic, I believe, was in 1918. Covid-19 has been repeatedly called a once in a century pandemic.

A lot of what you posted is incorrect. Check your data again.

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32 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

The NFL has the luxury of time, they can wait 8 weeks until mid-June to make a final decision on the season. Unlike the other 3 major sports leagues which are losing time in their seasons now. However the NFL might have to make some difficult decisions then but there are just far too many variables for them to wait through. 

 

The biggest problem I think they'll face is that they are at the mercy of several different state governments. The California governor already came out and said football with fans at the stadium is not something he foresees in his state. So what happens if even a couple states with NFL teams are still shut down in September?  What if several teams can run training camps but others can't? I think the most likely scenario right now is there will be football but with key differences - a shortened offseason, possibly a delayed start to the season, no fans allowed, for some teams maybe all games played at a neutral location out of state. It's pretty hard to predict this stuff. What if we get this wave under control but a second wave hits after life gets back to normal? It's a distinct possibility that we get halfway through the season and then a player tests positive and the whole league gets shut down, like what happened with the NBA.

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Just now, MJS said:

A lot of what you posted is incorrect. Check your data again.

 

No, no it's not. It's straight from the CDC's own website. I only used US's numbers as for most US citizens that's what effects our day to day life. I did use words like confirmed cases for COVID-19 as there hasn't been time for the experts to come up with any real estimates, but that also means only confirmed deaths as many are dying in their houses and in hospitals that never got tested, therefore haven't been a confirmed case. All this will be looked at when they come up with their final estimates once this is all over.

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2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Well, somebody isn’t bothering to stay current.

China has already opened up Baseball, Japan Baseball is in Spring Training and South Korea is about to begin play.

And the virus in China is resurging. 

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2 hours ago, nucci said:

how do you determine who gets to go?

For the World Cup back in 2006 I had to enter a lottery system and then was told which match I would get a ticket to, I had no choice in the matter—I’m sure a similar lottery type system would also work in this scenario—you pick the team, they pick which game by lottery you get, or something along those lines?

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1 minute ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Sorry if this was asked somewhere else but what happens to player contracts if unfortunately there is a lost season? Would Diggs new deal start in 2021?

what new deal?

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1 hour ago, Greg S said:
Just now, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Sorry if this was asked somewhere else but what happens to player contracts if unfortunately there is a lost season? Would Diggs new deal start in 2021?

I was wondering the same thing. 

 

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