YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 8.5 wins No progression/growth from Allen (very slight completion % increase) step back in TDs and uptick in INTs slight uptick in rushing Yards for Allen, decrease in rushing TDs everyone coming back on offense, same system, add Stefon Diggs... nada. I think he added like 32 yards/game progression bills give up 60 more points on D than last year Edited April 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not at the table Karlos Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) So we regress everywhere. Some reason I don’t see that happening. Does he do this every year. Would be interesting to see how accurate he is. Edited April 9, 2020 by Not at the table Karlos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 What a waste of time, creating something like this. Good lord. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoolhouserock Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 This looks like it is model-based to me. (Computer-simulated) Would be cool to see what’s under the hood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) I don't agree at all with his take on this, but I suspect he's buying into the flawed logic that the schedule is going to dictate Allen's regression / overall team productivity. The schedule is rarely a contributing factor because there are always teams that do much better than anticipated (the Bills last year being one) and teams that do worse or not quite as well. Nobody knows what teams will absolutely be lights-out and which ones will be cupcake until the games are actually played. Furthermore, while I wouldn't expect any person to know who the Bills Draft, his roster is missing Drafted players, which as we know from McBeane's time in Buffalo has so far been crucial to their success. For example, it's hard for me to believe the Bills enter the 2020 NFL season with the current list of RBs they have, or that they don't add a good CB or depth at O-line or even a mid-round WR that can contribute to their Offense / STs. Those incremental additions make large contributions over the course of the season. That's to say nothing about the aforementioned improved Offense with Diggs ALONE. I don't think Allen's progression is automatic, but from what I've read he definitely knows *this* is the season that will have far more to do with his long-term success than what he's done thus far. The 3rd year is usually when the light goes on and stays on and who the QB is, becomes solidified. It is rare they drastically improve beyond the 3rd year starting, but some of the greatest QBs / players, have shown that the 3rd year is when it all clicks and they don't look back. I can be called a homer, that's fine, but I believe this to be true for Josh as well. Continuity on the O-line, improved skill position players, and same Offense for 3rd year. Sign. Me. Up. Go Bills! Edited April 9, 2020 by BigBuff423 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said: So we regress everywhere. Some reason I don’t see that happening. Does he do this every year. Would be interesting to see how accurate he is. Yes he does do it every year. Trying to find last year’s - here are all teams https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/Clay Projections 2019.pdf Edited April 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 So we're going to get worse? Okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said: So we regress everywhere. Some reason I don’t see that happening. Does he do this every year. Would be interesting to see how accurate he is. The Bills will be a better team but the schedule is much more difficult than last year's. I think most of his projections are reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) People should understand this is basically him replicating the sorts of odds you get in Vegas, meaning that everyone is pushed a bit towards the middle. He almost certainly won't have teams projected 12+ wins or less than 4 wins. A good example of that is he has the Bills defense allowing like 60+ more points than they did last season, but that's also the best in the league. So if you look at the points allowed, it looks like he thinks the defense will be worse this year, but he literally thinks they'll statistically be the best. And I believe the 8.5 wins is enough to win the division based on his projections/is like 4th best in the conference. Also, as I mentioned in the last Mike Clay thread, it's kinda pointless to be looking at this stuff when the roster isn't complete. Like he has Buffalo as one of the worst RB groups in the league right now, but it seems very likely that we will improve on that before the season begins. Edited April 9, 2020 by DCOrange 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Yes he does do it every year. Trying to find last year’s - here are all teams https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/Clay Projections 2019.pdf Only off by 3 wins. 4 if you consider the loss resting starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 So we add Stefon Diggs. Presumably, we get someone under the age of 74 to complement Singletary. Defense will (according to him) give up 3.75 points/game more than last year. And we're going to win two less games? Just think ... someone actually paid this guy to write that crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramza86 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Tougher schedule. No way we can be worse, but i can see "stats" on the decline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) Who is this guy? Bet he does fantasy stuff... Edited April 9, 2020 by Don Otreply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not at the table Karlos Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 42 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Yes he does do it every year. Trying to find last year’s - here are all teams https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/Clay Projections 2019.pdf I looked a little bit for last years and couldn’t find it. Thanks for the link to all the teams! Bills 2019 is in there. Edited April 9, 2020 by Not at the table Karlos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Ed Oliver struggled to find his footing until about midseason last year and STILL managed 5 sacks.... so next he’s gonna get less? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Mike Clay has hated our roster since McDermott and Beane took over. He still hates our roster. Not sure if it's mostly just out of spite or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, auburnbillsbacker said: The Bills will be a better team but the schedule is much more difficult than last year's. I think most of his projections are reasonable. You don't know how tough a schedule is until after the season is played. Why don't people understand this simple concept? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Ramza86 said: Tougher schedule. No way we can be worse, but i can see "stats" on the decline. I actually think the schedule is only tougher when it comes to travel. If you look at it from a QB standpoint they play 3 of the top QBs all at home - mahomes, Russ, Big Ben. Doesn’t mean they win those games but it’s a good balance for them. Who is the next best QB on the schedule... goff? Tannehill? jimmy G? I personally think they played tougher QBs last year in terms of number. Brady 2x, Dak, Wentz, Lamar Edited April 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said: You don't know how tough a schedule is until after the season is played. Why don't people understand this simple concept? If the NFC West and AFC West are bad divisions let me know. They will be good divisions. The AFC East will be improved. I dont need to see the entire season played to analyze how good a team is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Just now, auburnbillsbacker said: If the NFC West and AFC West are bad divisions let me know. They will be good divisions. The AFC East will be improved. I dont need to see the entire season played to analyze how good a team is. I'm we have your analysis. Tell me, will teams suffer injuries that will set them back? Will there be disappointing performances from teams? Will any teams catch the public by surprise and be good? Again, strength of schedule can NOT be determined until after a season has been played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: 8.5 wins No progression/growth from Allen (very slight completion % increase) step back in TDs and uptick in INTs slight uptick in rushing Yards for Allen, decrease in rushing TDs everyone coming back on offense, same system, add Stefon Diggs... nada. I think he added like 32 yards/game progression bills give up 60 more points on D than last year If you add up all the points scored per his player projections it equals 265. That's less than 17 points per game he predicts we will score on offense. Someone check my math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 9, 2020 Author Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said: I'm we have your analysis. Tell me, will teams suffer injuries that will set them back? Will there be disappointing performances from teams? Will any teams catch the public by surprise and be good? Again, strength of schedule can NOT be determined until after a season has been played. Agree. We thought we would plan Ben last year and got a duck caller. Browns were supposed to be great (i know we lost to them but lots of teams didn’t) Everyone had cowboys as a loss. SOS is only a guess. When i project I look at QBs barring injury as the indicator. Even defenses aren’t steady year to year. Bills one of the few that have been good 3 straight years and have same coaches and players Edited April 9, 2020 by YoloinOhio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Gary Busey said: If you add up all the points scored per his player projections it equals 265. That's less than 17 points per game he predicts we will score on offense. Someone check my math Didn't add in Josh's 6 running TDs so that would make it 301 total / 16 to equal 18.8 PPG on offense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Fancy way to make wild guesses. He knows that all you have to do to be taken seriously is to make a spreadsheet. Bonus points if you use conditional formatting. My guess is he is just as accurate as the average fan going down the schedule and predicting "win, loss, loss, win..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said: Agree. We thought we would plan Ben last year and got a duck caller. Browns were supposed to be great (i know we lost to them but lots of teams didn’t) Everyone had cowboys as a loss. SOS is only a guess. Playoff teams and division winners are often very different from year to year (except in the AFC East), but people make assumptions when they make predictions that those teams will remain the same ... well, except for the Bills, of course. For one thing, injuries always throw a wrench into the prediction. And then there's the "Browns effect" where a team has a hyped off-season but ultimately shows their true colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amaru523 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 This is just like all the "experts" who thought the Bills were gonna suck last year. I remember a show on ESPN where all 4 guys on the panel picked the under 6.5 for win total. I kept telling everyone, "so our roster got significantly better, but we're gonna stay the same or be worse?" Made no sense and I enjoyed telling everyone I told you so. Next season our roster gets a little better, Josh gets an elite weapon, we still have a top 5 D, AND no more Tom Brady. Guarantee we win AT LEAST 10 games. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 57 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Mike Clay has hated our roster since McDermott and Beane took over. He still hates our roster. Not sure if it's mostly just out of spite or what. He hates it so much that he rates our defense #1 in the league? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: Yes he does do it every year. Trying to find last year’s - here are all teams https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/Clay Projections 2019.pdf he's got tre as the 45th best cb in the league there? is that right? mother of god 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 9 wins is winning the division. The Bills could be a better team than last year and have less wins. Our schedule was joke last year and we caught every break. This is the real test of how far the process is. If they get double digit wins and Allen improves against this schedule (obviously it’s early but it does seem harder), I will be fully invested in the process. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: 8.5 wins No progression/growth from Allen (very slight completion % increase) step back in TDs and uptick in INTs slight uptick in rushing Yards for Allen, decrease in rushing TDs everyone coming back on offense, same system, add Stefon Diggs... nada. I think he added like 32 yards/game progression bills give up 60 more points on D than last year It's a projection. They dont factor injuries, growth, anything. They basically just use a computer to figure out who is likely to win games, and how many total points. The total points would = X TDs. Divvy up the TDs based on projected offensive output etc. Then get an expected yardage total and do the same. Sack totals, all that - its not based on how many sacks the players have had, they are probably basing off of the rotation that McD does. How many total snaps, how many sacks per snap career. Etc. This is solely a projection based on quantifiable data that they have. It helps - but its a football game, not a baseball game. Batting projections work because of trends - and the fact that its a 1x1 with batter and pitcher. The Hitters goal is to get a hit and get on base. The pitchers goal is to get outs, limit baserunners. Simple. Everything about football makes data collection hard, as well as hard to use. You give up a 45 yard TD as a corner because mahomes broke contain and scrambled for like 8 seconds. You eat the TD there even though it's likely a defensive ends fault. Without knowing the play calls, the assignments, etc. you never really know what you were supposed to do there. Same goes for offense - RB could get 80 yards and its truly just a blown assignment by a safety or something. How do you factor that into a projection a year later? Just now, C.Biscuit97 said: 9 wins is winning the division. The Bills could be a better team than last year and have less wins. Our schedule was joke last year and we caught every break. This is the real test of how far the process is. If they get double digit wins and Allen improves against this schedule (obviously it’s early but it does seem harder), I will be fully invested in the process. I'm hoping McD starts coaching like a winner. Not saying he needs to go nuts here, but don't be afraid to win by like 10... or even more! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, auburnbillsbacker said: The Bills will be a better team but the schedule is much more difficult than last year's. I think most of his projections are reasonable. Yeah, I agree. Fans usually think best case scenario while modeling tries to hit the middle of the bell curve. Id wager that there are three big things negatively impacting the projected win total: 1) Relative strength of schedule between last season and this season, 2) Pythagorean Wins estimates (or something similar) which uses points for and points against to calculate expected wins. (It’s a better indicator of a team’s record than that team’s record from the last season.) In 2019 the Bills didn’t fare nearly as well in that metric as they did in the W-L columns. And 3) Health. The Bills definitely had some issues there, but they we still comfortably better than average in that regard. So it’s not to say that we won’t beat the averages again. Every SB winner has some luck. We’re almost certainly getting better this season, but so are two of the three other teams in our division. The vast majority of teams would say the same even if some of them will be proven wrong. The real takeaway for me is that his expected numbers indirectly show how a jump forward from Allen would impact the team. Moving lots of those important stats that are middling into the good to great territory would make the Bills quite the powerhouse. That’s not something we all don’t already know of course, but he gives us a pretty good indication of what to expect if it doesn’t happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: He hates it so much that he rates our defense #1 in the league? Says 6th and offense 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Says 6th and offense 23rd. Crap. You’re correct. I thought a pew poster said they were first and I didn’t check. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, BarleyNY said: Crap. You’re correct. I thought a pew poster said they were first and I didn’t check. My bad. Clay just doesn't like our team very much. Very much an Allen hater. He's slowly coming around, very slow. Still ranks us the 19th best roster overall. Edited April 9, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigK14094 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Not at the table Karlos said: So we regress everywhere. Some reason I don’t see that happening. Does he do this every year. Would be interesting to see how accurate he is. Bills had a creampuf schedule last y ear. tougher this year, so staying even is growth to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, bigK14094 said: Bills had a creampuf schedule last y ear. tougher this year, so staying even is growth to some extent. nobody said our schedule was creampuff going into last year. it's the same thing every year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny33 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said: 8.5 wins No progression/growth from Allen (very slight completion % increase) step back in TDs and uptick in INTs slight uptick in rushing Yards for Allen, decrease in rushing TDs everyone coming back on offense, same system, add Stefon Diggs... nada. I think he added like 32 yards/game progression bills give up 60 more points on D than last year Other than the fact that doing this before the draft is insane, his WR numbers are absurdly concentrated on the top 3 with regard to catches/yardage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Gary Busey said: If you add up all the points scored per his player projections it equals 265. That's less than 17 points per game he predicts we will score on offense. Someone check my math This doesn't really work because of rounding. At any rate, he includes a total point projection on the right hand side: 328 points or 20.5 points per game. 21st out of the 28 teams he's released so far, which is basically exactly where we were a year ago. 58 minutes ago, ny33 said: Other than the fact that doing this before the draft is insane, his WR numbers are absurdly concentrated on the top 3 with regard to catches/yardage. Last year, our top 3 were responsible for 64% of the team's passing yards. Clay projects they'll be responsible for 65% this year. 2 hours ago, aristocrat said: he's got tre as the 45th best cb in the league there? is that right? mother of god No, that's for fantasy football. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: Says 6th and offense 23rd. 2 hours ago, BarleyNY said: Crap. You’re correct. I thought a pew poster said they were first and I didn’t check. My bad. He has Buffalo #1 in projected points allowed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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