Gregg Rosenthal says "Make Josh Allen's life easier"

[brianthomas]

I keep seeing posts saying the OLine wasn't good enough, Allen was running for his life. And to some degree that was true. Unblocked defenders were in his face way too often. But what we don't know is why those plays happened. Sometimes they picked the wrong defender to pick up, so was a presnap read missed on some of them? I do know that Allen held onto the ball the longest in the league last year. I believe around 3 seconds. So doesnt that imply that he had the most time to throw? Of course the Oline could use an upgrade & im sure Beane will work on that. This whole team has been built incrementally from season to season, with him looking to upgrade everywhere.

 

But what needs to improve the most is Allens faster recognition of the defense pre & post snap & where to go with the ball. Upgrading his weapons for sure should help with that, as well as another year of learning & growing. But our Oline was sufficient enough for us to have success. Allen couldnt complete a screen pass for his life, passes which help immensely with easing the oncoming pressure, nor could he hit on those deep passes. And there were times when he had all day to throw (with WR's or TE's wide open) that he just didn't see were open, or where his feet were planted the wrong way & he'd just flat out miss them.

 

This is not a knock on Allen as i've been impressed with his growth & play. Just an observation. I think the Oline overall was a pleasant surprise last year. So many new bodies & i think they held up & for the most part played together well. Still room to improve of course (and im sure it will be) but you just can't hold on to the ball all day long in the NFL. You need to get rid of it on time.

[Augie]

4 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I mean, not really

 

Since McBeane got here they have added these guys to the offense for better or worse

 

Corey Coleman

Jordan Mathews 

Kelvin Benjamin

John Brown

Cole Beasley

Isiah McKenzie

Tyler Kroft

Dawson Knox

Lee Smith

Tommy Sweeney

Devin Singletary

Frank Gore

Jon Feliciano

Quniton Span

Cody Ford

Mitch Morse

Ty Nesheke

JOSH ALLEN

 

They had nine new starters this year on offense. I think it was well addressed last offseason. You can debate the effectiveness, but not the focus IMO

 

 

 

Agreed, there is just more work to do. They have not done a poor job as has been asserted, IMO. There was just so much to do it’s almost impossible to completely fix in one offseason. The emphasis early in this regime was defense, but I think the focus is now shifting to some degree. 

 

.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Augie

[Michael1962]

4 hours ago, CBennett said:

Get josh some guys that can get open and actually CATCH the ball when it hits them in the hands..

Tell me more about this "catching" thing you speak of?

[DuckyBoys]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Nah, it was a dig.  We can agree to disagree, and I don't scour the internet looking for reasons to be outraged.  I think Rosenthal pretty clearly doesn't like Allen.

Truth

[Buffalo Junction]

2 hours ago, hjnick said:

Whoa! I think it would be crazy for Detroit to miss out on Chase Young (should be 2) or Okudah at 3.  That dude is a lockdown corner that could be the cornerstone for that defense.  And especially drop down to 7.  It would have to be overwhelming compensation to move off of him IMO.

 

Now, I think the best/smartest play would be the NYG (even though you said they won't move) to be open to trading with the Chargers to jump over Miami for Tua AND/OR FORCE Miami to trade up 1 spot for your spot.  Either way, BOTH the chargers and dolphins WILL be drafting a QB.  That leaves the Giants with the same target they would have gotten at 4, which is prob an offensive tackle.

They also have a QB who broke his back this season. I wouldn’t rule them out on Tua either. It’s unlikely, but.... major injury to a starter and an opportunity to draft, sit, and develop a top QB can’t be dismissed outright. 

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, brianthomas said:

I keep seeing posts saying the OLine wasn't good enough, Allen was running for his life. And to some degree that was true. Unblocked defenders were in his face way too often. But what we don't know is why those plays happened. Sometimes they picked the wrong defender to pick up, so was a presnap read missed on some of them? I do know that Allen held onto the ball the longest in the league last year. I believe around 3 seconds. So doesnt that imply that he had the most time to throw? Of course the Oline could use an upgrade & im sure Beane will work on that. This whole team has been built incrementally from season to season, with him looking to upgrade everywhere.

 

But what needs to improve the most is Allens faster recognition of the defense pre & post snap & where to go with the ball. Upgrading his weapons for sure should help with that, as well as another year of learning & growing. But our Oline was sufficient enough for us to have success. Allen couldnt complete a screen pass for his life, passes which help immensely with easing the oncoming pressure, nor could he hit on those deep passes. And there were times when he had all day to throw (with WR's or TE's wide open) that he just didn't see were open, or where his feet were planted the wrong way & he'd just flat out miss them.

 

This is not a knock on Allen as i've been impressed with his growth & play. Just an observation. I think the Oline overall was a pleasant surprise last year. So many new bodies & i think they held up & for the most part played together well. Still room to improve of course (and im sure it will be) but you just can't hold on to the ball all day long in the NFL. You need to get rid of it on time.

I’ve commented on this a few times. It’s also harder on some linemen to block for a scrambling QB. I think Allen’s protection calls will improve with his experience level. 
 

What concerns me more with the Oline is their ability to win at POA in the run game. Particularly on inside runs. I’m not sure how much of this falls on Gore’s legs falling off mid season, but there certainly wasn’t enough drive to make up for that. QB sneaks aside our short yardage ground attack was bad. Perhaps it was just Ds being able to cue on Gore and Lee Smith. 

[transplantbillsfan]

"Poor Man's Cam Newton"

 

That line from Rosenthal and the indication that it's all he'll ever be is really an accurate representation of what the national narrative is and will be on Josh until he breaks it.

[hjnick]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

They also have a QB who broke his back this season. I wouldn’t rule them out on Tua either. It’s unlikely, but.... major injury to a starter and an opportunity to draft, sit, and develop a top QB can’t be dismissed outright. 

Very True.  Also, Stafford is getting pretty old.

 

Does Detroit pull the trigger and get their next QB??  OR do they #TankForTrevor / #LoseForLawrence to draft next season??

 

Even with the leg problem, I think Tua has that 'it' factor that great QB's have.  (Now that you made me think about it), it's probably time for Detroit to get their next QB. 

[JaCrispy]

6 hours ago, eball said:

Terrible column.  Rosenthal takes two not-so-veiled shots at Allen while supposedly writing about how the Bills can win a Super Bowl.  Calls him a "poor man's Cam Newton" and makes some other comment that gives insight into his opinion that Allen isn't any good.  I wish I hadn't clicked because I feel dumber for having done so.

We may not like to admit it, but to this point in Josh’s career, Rosenthal’s assessment, as you describe it, is pretty spot on...Newton was light years ahead of Josh at this point in his career...what’s to disagree with about that?

[Buffalo Junction]

33 minutes ago, hjnick said:

Very True.  Also, Stafford is getting pretty old.

 

Does Detroit pull the trigger and get their next QB??  OR do they #TankForTrevor / #LoseForLawrence to draft next season??

 

Even with the leg problem, I think Tua has that 'it' factor that great QB's have.  (Now that you made me think about it), it's probably time for Detroit to get their next QB. 

It’d be similar to what GB did with Favre/Rodgers. 

[klos63]

8 hours ago, Steptide said:

The thing that's always surprised me is that McDermott always credits Andy Reid as being a big influence/mentor to him, yet for 3 seasons we've seen a lack of focus on the offense. This upcoming draft really needs to focus on the offense. We need 2 more solid recievers that will be a part of this team for 5 years or longer. I think we're ok at tight end. Get some depth at o line in the later rounds and I think we'll be in pretty good shape for 2020

10 new starters this past season on offense?

[ndirish1978]

9 hours ago, Steptide said:

The thing that's always surprised me is that McDermott always credits Andy Reid as being a big influence/mentor to him, yet for 3 seasons we've seen a lack of focus on the offense. This upcoming draft really needs to focus on the offense. We need 2 more solid recievers that will be a part of this team for 5 years or longer. I think we're ok at tight end. Get some depth at o line in the later rounds and I think we'll be in pretty good shape for 2020

 

Please list the WRs we should have signed last season. We signed what was on the market and we had an unproven QB. 

[Nihilarian]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

OK, well first of all, there are at this point 2, maybe 3, QB who can "carry a franchise with their arm alone".  And even they strongly benefit from, or even need, a good offensive line to give them some time (certainly Aaron Rodgers does) and at least one top-notch receiving talent who can get open and haul in a contested catch or a throw that's a bit off.

 

I'm not sure what he means by "covers up his weaknesses and accentuates his strengths".  Daboll takes more crap here than he should, but some of Daboll's play calling and sequences are strange and at times, seem designed to treat Allen as a much more developed and proficient passer than he is at this point (Eagles game, Browns game, end of Houston game).

I agree. Now, think about what Patrick Mahomes would look like without TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill, AND Not having Andy Reid setup the game plans and call the offensive plays. I highly doubt he would look anywhere near as good as he does. I even doubt he could carry the team with his arm without those people supporting him. 

 

Give those three men to Josh Allen and allow him to sit for a season and watch, learn under Reid and you might have a different view of Allen. 

 

Name any star QB that could carry his team with his arm and take away the other offensive stars on the team and see what happens. What did Brady look like this season without Gronk!

 

Shoot, Matt Ryan had 11 games with over 300 yards passing with a completion percentage of 66.2. Ryan threw for 4466 yards in 2019, #1 in pass attempts, #3 in passing yards and the Falcons went 7-9. His WR Julio Jones played in 15 games. He clearly can't carry his team with his arm. Aaron Rodgers couldn't carry his team with his arm in 2017-2018 either. This list is endless when you don't have a balanced team.

 

That last paragraph might mean that when Daboll called a balanced game Josh Allen really shined like in that Dallas game. 19 of 24 for 231, 2 TDs with a 120.7 rate. Mostly when Daboll had the run game working properly it took away the pressure to carry the game on his own (his arm, hero ball). 

 

As for that last sentence, excellent point. However, I would call it more than just "strange" play calling when your team has a 16 point lead and instead of finding a way to pound the ball to play keep away. You keep asking the playoff inexperienced QB to keep throwing it 46 times. It is also more than strange that the Bills had five attempts in or near the Texans red zone and came away with four FGs, one TD. This against the worst red zone defense in the league.

Blame the QB for the ineffectual run game? Blame the QB for the ineffectual red zone offense? Josh Allen also ran nine times for 92 yards in that game. 

 

If Josh Allen has the ability to change the play every down or call an RPO when he feels the need then this OC is forcing way too much responsibility on that young, inexperienced QB. Either way, the buck stops with the OC for any offensive failure.  

[Chicken Boo]

I thought it was foolish to go into the season with Brown, Beasley, ancient Gore and a rookie RB for Josh to lean on.  Beane should be surrounding #17 with as much talent as humanly possible - and not fringe starters either.  Top tier-potential talent! 

 

Quit ***** around!  You're not going to money ball your way to a Super Bowl ring.

 

 

9 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I mean, not really

 

Since McBeane got here they have They had nine new starters this year on offense. I think it was well addressed last offseason. You can debate the effectiveness, but not the focus IMO

 

 

 

Of course you can.  As far as offensive talent at the skill positions, Beane left a lot to be desired, which is why we're here with the same needs at RB, WR and tight end.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Chicken Boo

[Chaos]

10 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I mean, not really

 

Since McBeane got here they have added these guys to the offense for better or worse

 

Corey Coleman

Jordan Mathews 

Kelvin Benjamin

John Brown

Cole Beasley

Isiah McKenzie

Tyler Kroft

Dawson Knox

Lee Smith

Tommy Sweeney

Devin Singletary

Frank Gore

Jon Feliciano

Quniton Span

Cody Ford

Mitch Morse

Ty Nesheke

JOSH ALLEN

 

They had nine new starters this year on offense. I think it was well addressed last offseason. You can debate the effectiveness, but not the focus IMO

 

 

Its a quality issue, not a quantity issue. 

[Steptide]

1 hour ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Please list the WRs we should have signed last season. We signed what was on the market and we had an unproven QB. 

You could make the argument that the bills should've taken Metcalf over oliver in last years draft. I like the beasley and brown signings, but past those 2, we don't really have any recievers. I'm interested to see if Duke williams becomes anything, but we still need a few solid recievers. 

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

We may not like to admit it, but to this point in Josh’s career, Rosenthal’s assessment, as you describe it, is pretty spot on...Newton was light years ahead of Josh at this point in his career...what’s to disagree with about that?

You don't like to admit it but Josh Allen improved dramatically from year 1 to year 2 (his first full year as a starter) and shows no signs of leveling off yet. Almost every week he made you look like a fool.  But that makes it more fun for the rest of us. 

[GreggTX]

Get an absolute beast or 2 for the OL. Also get a solid WR, LB and DE in FA or as close to that as you can get. Then we just go BPA in the draft. Tall order, but who knows?

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I mean, not really

 

Since McBeane got here they have added these guys to the offense for better or worse

 

Corey Coleman

Jordan Mathews 

Kelvin Benjamin

John Brown

Cole Beasley

Isiah McKenzie

Tyler Kroft

Dawson Knox

Lee Smith

Tommy Sweeney

Devin Singletary

Frank Gore

Jon Feliciano

Quniton Span

Cody Ford

Mitch Morse

Ty Nesheke

JOSH ALLEN

 

They had nine new starters this year on offense. I think it was well addressed last offseason. You can debate the effectiveness, but not the focus IMO

 

 

 

I disagree.  McDermott and Beane -- and Beane's predecessors, Brandon and Whaley -- gutted the team of offensive talent between 2017 and 2019.  They got rid of starting caliber players -- Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Sammy Watkins, Richie Incognito, Cordy Glenn, and LeSean McCoy -- and replaced them with JAGs and non-NFL caliber players.  That's not "focusing" on the offense, it's simply swapping out good players with cheaper ones to save $$$.  The Bills drafted Allen and then literally threw him to the wolves without a competent QB coach, an NFL caliber OL and receiving corps.   Again, that's not "focusing" on the offense; it's simply placating the fan base by giving them false hope in the person of one player.   McDermott and Beane only started to address the mess they'd created on offense in 2019 with the addition of some OLers and receivers, but in a modest way.  The 2019 OL, WRs, and RBs were not nearly as good as those units that McDermott inherited when he became HC.

 

At the very least, the Bills need at least 2 more starting quality receivers, another quality RB, and additional upgrading of the OL for 2020.   That's a major investment, and it's necessary because of previous failure to really focus on the offense.  Fans who think that the Bills offense is "good enough" are deluding themselves.

[chongli]

11 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I mean, not really

 

Since McBeane got here they have added these guys to the offense for better or worse

 

Corey Coleman

Jordan Mathews 

Kelvin Benjamin

John Brown

Cole Beasley

Isiah McKenzie

Tyler Kroft

Dawson Knox

Lee Smith

Tommy Sweeney

Devin Singletary

Frank Gore

Jon Feliciano

Quniton Span

Cody Ford

Mitch Morse

Ty Nesheke

JOSH ALLEN

 

They had nine new starters this year on offense. I think it was well addressed last offseason. You can debate the effectiveness, but not the focus IMO

 

 

 

Also Zay Jones and Nathan Peterman.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

I thought it was foolish to go into the season with Brown, Beasley, ancient Gore and a rookie RB for Josh to lean on.  Beane should be surrounding #17 with as much talent as humanly possible - and not fringe starters either.  Top tier-potential talent! 

 

Quit ***** around!  You're not going to money ball your way to a Super Bowl ring.

 

 

This.  I think that what Beane does this off season will tell us whether the Bills are building a Super Bowl contender or one just "good enough" to make the playoffs more often than once every two decades.

[thunderingsquid]

Mekhi Becton will make his life easier.

[NoSaint]

13 hours ago, Dopey said:

Gregg Rosenthal wrote an article for nfl.com on what each AFC team should do to dethrone the Chiefs next year. He say we should add more offensive play makers(duh).He doesn't want Bills fans to fool themselves into thinking Josh carry the Bills on his arm alone. I found it interesting that he seems to like Daboll and how he schemes to cover up weaknesses and accentuate his strengths. A few more interesting tidbits: Colts should take on Rivers(not Brady) and the Raiders should move on from Carr and Miami is going to have to move up for Tua.

I looked to see if anyone else posted this, but couldn't find anything. Please merge if I missed it.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001099360/article/one-thing-each-afc-team-can-do-to-dethrone-the-chiefs-in-2020

I may regret this later but I’m 100% in on the dolphins trading up for tua. Would be about the riskiest move possible for them.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, brianthomas said:

I keep seeing posts saying the OLine wasn't good enough, Allen was running for his life. And to some degree that was true. Unblocked defenders were in his face way too often. But what we don't know is why those plays happened. Sometimes they picked the wrong defender to pick up, so was a presnap read missed on some of them? I do know that Allen held onto the ball the longest in the league last year. I believe around 3 seconds. So doesnt that imply that he had the most time to throw? Of course the Oline could use an upgrade & im sure Beane will work on that. This whole team has been built incrementally from season to season, with him looking to upgrade everywhere.

 

But what needs to improve the most is Allens faster recognition of the defense pre & post snap & where to go with the ball. Upgrading his weapons for sure should help with that, as well as another year of learning & growing. But our Oline was sufficient enough for us to have success. Allen couldnt complete a screen pass for his life, passes which help immensely with easing the oncoming pressure, nor could he hit on those deep passes. And there were times when he had all day to throw (with WR's or TE's wide open) that he just didn't see were open, or where his feet were planted the wrong way & he'd just flat out miss them.

 

This is not a knock on Allen as i've been impressed with his growth & play. Just an observation. I think the Oline overall was a pleasant surprise last year. So many new bodies & i think they held up & for the most part played together well. Still room to improve of course (and im sure it will be) but you just can't hold on to the ball all day long in the NFL. You need to get rid of it on time.

 

Well, to some extent one can look at the game film and separate out the pass plays into different groups.  There are plays where there's clearly a whiffed block and it's just a whiff - the TE is off to one end and has the guy and whiffs, or one of the tackles has no one outside of him and whiffs.  Then there are plays where the whole line is shoved back at Allen.  I would say those are on the OL.  There are a couple plays where either you can see, or someone mentioned (Daboll in one case) two of the OLmen tripping on each other.  If you look at the film, you can find a few more.

 

So there I think we can say, we know why those plays happened.  And they happened too much.

 

Then there are the plays where, as you say, it appears the blocking scheme was simply not correct for what the defense actually did, and there, we don't know what happened.

 

No, I don't think Allen holding the ball the longest in the league implies he had the most time to throw due to a good OL; he extended plays with his legs and threw.  But that's another category; sometimes the roll-out appears to be a designed option in the play, other times it's a scramble.

 

Maybe someone somewhere has separated out "time in the pocket" from "overall time to throw" for QBs?

 

My take is that the OL was much improved, and played well against poor to average defenses.  But when faced with a stout front seven, we weren't good enough.  And part of that may be incorrect protection calls at times. 

 

I'm curious about the screen passes Allen couldn't complete?  It just didn't seem to me we ran screens much (or executed them when we tried), but perhaps I'm mistaken.

[Agent 91]

14 hours ago, Steptide said:

The thing that's always surprised me is that McDermott always credits Andy Reid as being a big influence/mentor to him, yet for 3 seasons we've seen a lack of focus on the offense. This upcoming draft really needs to focus on the offense. We need 2 more solid recievers that will be a part of this team for 5 years or longer. I think we're ok at tight end. Get some depth at o line in the later rounds and I think we'll be in pretty good shape for 2020

I like most of this. I actually want to see them add starting left and right tackles. I just dont have a reason to want to entrench Ford as unquestioned started. And Dawkins is gonna price himself out of here. I would definitely like to see us pull a top end wr and maybe someone they liked at the senior bowl. I also want a complimentary (speed) back to go with Singletary. 

[brianthomas]

33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm curious about the screen passes Allen couldn't complete?  It just didn't seem to me we ran screens much (or executed them when we tried), but perhaps I'm mistaken.

Yeah i agree with your assessment of the oline overall. As for the screen passes. You saw them called more often in the 1st half of the season, but then as the season went on it seemed Daboll used them less & less. I havent analyzed everyone, to be frank i'd have no idea how to even do that. But just from watching every game I can tell you more often than not that when we ran one i was scared to death.

 

Other teams implement them vs us to great success & there is a smooth movement of the play where it baits our defense & off the play goes. But when we ran them on some throws the ball was thrown like a missile, getting there faster than Ford or Dawkins could run, since a fastball isnt the type of throw thats needed & the ball bounces off the rb's hands as you'd expect for a throw so close... (if the rb even turned around at all before the ball got there). Or Allen would over compensate and the ball would have a larger than normal arc with more touch & the ball would take too long to get there, giving the defense that split second of more time to recognize what was going on.

I think its been pretty well discussed here some of the issues Allen has controlling his velocity on shorter throws that need some touch to them. And i'm a big fan of Josh so im not trying to be unfair to him. But i think Daboll took them out of the play book to a good extent simply because that play wasnt working for us & was an accident waiting to happen. And its a play i think we really need in our arsenal to help keep defenses honest & to use our shifty RB in space with blockers out in front of him. The few times where it did work, helped us out a lot. Like the 49 yarder to Singletary vs Washington. These types of plays can really help take the pressure off of Allen... when successful.

 

I know i can't be the only one who thinks this way. I know the Buffalo News had a few articles where they talk about our inability to execute those plays. But theyre behind a paywall & im not gonna subscribe. But its not like Daboll just stopped calling screen passes willy nilly for the hell of it. Hopefully someone else with more knowledge on the subject can speak to it. But that'd be my general assessment of the whole subject as a fan watching.

[Agent 91]

13 hours ago, wppete said:

I hope they get Robby Anderson in FA and wither Laviska Shenault or Tee Higgins. These guys along with John Brown, Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox should be some great weapons for JA. 

 

 

 

 

Shenault scares me because his highlights TO ME remind me of Sammy in college. Breaking tackles running people over only to come to the league and be piss poor at YAC yardage. Having said all that. I still want my Eric Moulds and Shenault might fit the bill. I'm willing to do it again

 

If he does it at the combine and prices himself out of out draft area... Higgins works for me too. Point is. I do not want to see anything but WR at 22. I know they will do something else but I can dream

[LABILLBACKER]

All I know is with Burrow and Tua probably going to the AFC, there's going to be a log jam of good qbs in the conference. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

Yeah i agree with your assessment of the oline overall. As for the screen passes. You saw them called more often in the 1st half of the season, but then as the season went on it seemed Daboll used them less & less. I havent analyzed everyone, to be frank i'd have no idea how to even do that. But just from watching every game I can tell you more often than not that when we ran one i was scared to death.

 

Other teams implement them vs us to great success & there is a smooth movement of the play where it baits our defense & off the play goes. But when we ran them on some throws the ball was thrown like a missile, getting there faster than Ford or Dawkins could run, since a fastball isnt the type of throw thats needed & the ball bounces off the rb's hands as you'd expect for a throw so close... (if the rb even turned around at all before the ball got there). Or Allen would over compensate and the ball would have a larger than normal arc with more touch & the ball would take too long to get there, giving the defense that split second of more time to recognize what was going on.

I think its been pretty well discussed here some of the issues Allen has controlling his velocity on shorter throws that need some touch to them. And i'm a big fan of Josh so im not trying to be unfair to him. But i think Daboll took them out of the play book to a good extent simply because that play wasnt working for us & was an accident waiting to happen. And its a play i think we really need in our arsenal to help keep defenses honest & to use our shifty RB in space with blockers out in front of him. The few times where it did work, helped us out a lot. Like the 49 yarder to Singletary vs Washington. These types of plays can really help take the pressure off of Allen... when successful.

 

I know i can't be the only one who thinks this way. I know the Buffalo News had a few articles where they talk about our inability to execute those plays. But theyre behind a paywall & im not gonna subscribe. But its not like Daboll just stopped calling screen passes willy nilly for the hell of it. Hopefully someone else with more knowledge on the subject can speak to it. But that'd be my general assessment of the whole subject as a fan watching.

 

OK, so I found some stuff on some of the questions we raised earlier, but no data on screen plays called.  Maybe one of our other resident stat mavens can help.

 

One of my fave free sites, pro-football-reference has some passing advanced stats.  These include a stat called "PktTime", which they define as "average time the QB had between the snap and throwing the ball, or pressure collapsing the pocket, in seconds" (click on the pressure tab if the link doesn't take you there).  The QB with the lowest time (2.3 seconds) are Drew Brees, Josh Allen, Fitzy, Trubisky, Dalton, Mayfield, and Murray.  Brees makes sense because he's fast to pull the trigger, man.  But I don't think Josh pulls the trigger that quickly, so that may be a metrick of how quickly the pocket collapses on him?

Allen was the 9th most sacked QB, the 5th most blitzed (tied with Jimmy Garappolo, behind Winston, Wilson, Goff, and Mayfield), and recorded the 4th most scrambles (behind Wilson and Watson).  21 for most hurries, 12 for most hits.

 

So I would say overall - maybe he really didn't have all that much time in the pocket. 

And we got blitzed a lot because it worked.  Completion % vs blitz: 52.8%.  Normal rush: 62.8%.

 

Some data on play type -

RPO: To hear analysts talk, we run RPOs all the time, like Jackson or Kyler Murray.  Not so much.  We only ran 42 RPOs out of 1018 offensive plays.  We passed 76% of the time. 62.5% completion.

Play action: We used a lot of play action, though: 105 out of 461 pass attempts was play action.  Allen had a great completion % out of play action, 65.6%.

 

OK so here's one I didn't see coming:

Allen completion % with <2.5 seconds in pocket: 66%.  With >2.5 seconds in pocket: 48%.  So when Allen pulls the trigger quickly, success.  I wonder if that is skewed by jet sweeps and the like?  Or is it when he can make a read and hit it from the pocket, he's pretty accurate, but when he has to wait for a route to develop he got pressured and it messed with his ability to throw accurately?

 

I hear you on the screens just not working, but it was never so clear to me why.  Agree we need to fix those plays.  Some had hypothesized because we weren't running successfully enough we couldn't make them work?  But Allen's timing and touch could be part of it, certainly.

[Punching Bag]

11 hours ago, brianthomas said:

This is not a knock on Allen as i've been impressed with his growth & play. Just an observation. I think the Oline overall was a pleasant surprise last year. So many new bodies & i think they held up & for the most part played together well. Still room to improve of course (and im sure it will be) but you just can't hold on to the ball all day long in the NFL. You need to get rid of it on time.

 

What I was most impressed with OL was that even backups seemed prepared to play.  Bates was an example.

I do think they need more coaching in how to do certain things without having penalties called.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I’ve commented on this a few times. It’s also harder on some linemen to block for a scrambling QB. I think Allen’s protection calls will improve with his experience level. 
 

What concerns me more with the Oline is their ability to win at POA in the run game. Particularly on inside runs. I’m not sure how much of this falls on Gore’s legs falling off mid season, but there certainly wasn’t enough drive to make up for that. QB sneaks aside our short yardage ground attack was bad. Perhaps it was just Ds being able to cue on Gore and Lee Smith. 

 

It's my understanding that Spain was available in FA because the Titans committed to upgrading their run blocking for Henry this season.  They brought in Rodger Saffold as LG, moved on from Spain (whom we picked up) and drafted a 3rd rounder who wound up starting at RG. 

But now here's the interesting thing: it didn't give the Titans significantly more YPC.  5.1 this year, 4.9 last year.  What they did, was ramp up their rush attempts.  Henry saw 13 APG last year, 20 APG this year. 

 

Singletary rocked 5.1 YPC, 13 APG - but how many between the tackles vs outside?  From looking at the charts, it looks as though he could run between the tackles - maybe with a bit more success to the R than to the L? 

So did the Titans really need to upgrade their run blocking? Or was it more an issue of endurance?  They didn't have as good success rushing earlier in the season - did they just have better success, when they swapped QBs to Tannehill and had more of a passing threat?

 

Hmmmmm.  Points to ponder.

 

21 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

What I was most impressed with OL was that even backups seemed prepared to play.  Bates was an example.

I do think they need more coaching in how to do certain things without having penalties called.

 

Feliciano was solid when called on to play center, and Long was OK as a backup guard when Mongo moved over.

 

I thought Bates was a significant fall-off at T when he played in the Jets game.  Other than that, he only saw snaps in Game 5 vs Tenn.

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Agreed. They’ve just done a poor job at it.

 

 

No, they haven't.

 

Last year was the first year they poured significant resources into it (excepting bringing in Allen the year before) and there was very real improvement.

 

 

[JaCrispy]

10 hours ago, Chaos said:

You don't like to admit it but Josh Allen improved dramatically from year 1 to year 2 (his first full year as a starter) and shows no signs of leveling off yet. Almost every week he made you look like a fool.  But that makes it more fun for the rest of us. 

Not really sure what you’re talking about how “I don’t like to admit” that Josh improved from year 1...I don’t think anyone disputes that he did....and because we are all fans, we are glad to see it...

 

My issue is that he was so “off the charts” bad his first year, that his improvements still put him in the bottom of league- so, for me, it’s not really something to get excited about just yet...get back to me when Josh becomes a top half of the league passer and then maybe we can talk about having something...until then, his numbers are still backup QB level imo...

[Ayjent]

On 1/29/2020 at 10:04 AM, NI Bills Fan said:

 

I think I'll give it another off season before concluding they've done a poor job.  The offence was terrible 2 seasons ago and was never going to become above average in one off season.  It did show some improvment last year due to some smart additions in FA and acquiring singletary in the draft was a good move for now and the future.

 

This off season needs to focus on bringing in high quality at some key positions on the offence, not just numbers, I'll defer judgement until the start of next season.

 

 

I think this is the right view - they need bridge players until they can draft guys that can supplant those bridge players and be "in-house" upgrades.  I think that is what you hear from Beane and McDermott that they are not yet where they plan on being (that can be said for 31 teams every year and i get the emptiness of those statements).  As someone earlier in the thread points out that Reid has a big influence on McDermott and I really think that if that is true it is not just about whether the focal point is Offense vs. Defense but where you build your team from.  Reid has always put a premium on OL and DL, knowing that he can scheme for his talent on Offense with at least competent QB play.  He has way more than competent QB play now and they have made sure to surround him with talent - but its amazing how whoever suits up in the skill positions for the Chiefs is pretty good - that starts up front and with good play design for the strengths of your personnel.

[Chaos]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, they haven't.

 

Last year was the first year they poured significant resources into it (excepting bringing in Allen the year before) and there was very real improvement.

 

 

The way rookie contracts work, there is a limited amount of time.  Compare the Chiefs in year 2 of Mahomes and the Bills in year 2 of Allen. Or compare year 2 for Lamar Jackson to year 2 of Allen. 

[Buffalo Junction]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's my understanding that Spain was available in FA because the Titans committed to upgrading their run blocking for Henry this season.  They brought in Rodger Saffold as LG, moved on from Spain (whom we picked up) and drafted a 3rd rounder who wound up starting at RG. 

But now here's the interesting thing: it didn't give the Titans significantly more YPC.  5.1 this year, 4.9 last year.  What they did, was ramp up their rush attempts.  Henry saw 13 APG last year, 20 APG this year. 

 

Singletary rocked 5.1 YPC, 13 APG - but how many between the tackles vs outside?  From looking at the charts, it looks as though he could run between the tackles - maybe with a bit more success to the R than to the L? 

So did the Titans really need to upgrade their run blocking? Or was it more an issue of endurance?  They didn't have as good success rushing earlier in the season - did they just have better success, when they swapped QBs to Tannehill and had more of a passing threat?

 

Hmmmmm.  Points to ponder.

 

 

Feliciano was solid when called on to play center, and Long was OK as a backup guard when Mongo moved over.

 

I thought Bates was a significant fall-off at T when he played in the Jets game.  Other than that, he only saw snaps in Game 5 vs Tenn.

A 0.2 yard improvement is certainly modest to say the least. There were enough variables in Tenn to add ambiguity to the statistics: offensive coordinator, QBs, linemen, etc. Had a pretty bad year his last season there compared to how he performed in Buffalo. I’m fine with Spain coming back at a decent price. There might be some cost effective upgrades available though.... it’s nice not worrying about what Beane is going to do. Definitely beats the last two decades. 
 

I’d love for someone to post Singletary’s run charts. Gores as well. Off the top of my head though it seems like the A gap between Spain and Morse was often clogged, and Singletary did a fair amount of jump cutting behind to follow Dawkins. Now, part of that could be due to traps, etc where one missed a reach block or a TE/FB missed a block. Not sure. 

[whorlnut]

On 1/29/2020 at 9:20 AM, eball said:

Terrible column.  Rosenthal takes two not-so-veiled shots at Allen while supposedly writing about how the Bills can win a Super Bowl.  Calls him a "poor man's Cam Newton" and makes some other comment that gives insight into his opinion that Allen isn't any good.  I wish I hadn't clicked because I feel dumber for having done so.

Yep. That’s how I saw it too. He took some shots at Allen by saying the Bills are fooling themselves if they think he can lead them with his arm. Really?!  The guy was right up there among 4th quarter qbs and come from behind wins. What a joke. Way to go with the national narrative, Ken...smh...

[brianthomas]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, so I found some stuff on some of the questions we raised earlier, but no data on screen plays called.  Maybe one of our other resident stat mavens can help.

 

One of my fave free sites, pro-football-reference has some passing advanced stats. &nbsp;These include a stat called "PktTime", which they define as "average time the QB had between the snap and throwing the ball, or pressure collapsing the pocket, in seconds" (click on the pressure tab if the link doesn't take you there).  The QB with the lowest time (2.3 seconds) are Drew Brees, Josh Allen, Fitzy, Trubisky, Dalton, Mayfield, and Murray.  Brees makes sense because he's fast to pull the trigger, man.  But I don't think Josh pulls the trigger that quickly, so that may be a metrick of how quickly the pocket collapses on him?

Allen was the 9th most sacked QB, the 5th most blitzed (tied with Jimmy Garappolo, behind Winston, Wilson, Goff, and Mayfield), and recorded the 4th most scrambles (behind Wilson and Watson).  21 for most hurries, 12 for most hits.

 

So I would say overall - maybe he really didn't have all that much time in the pocket. 

And we got blitzed a lot because it worked.  Completion % vs blitz: 52.8%.  Normal rush: 62.8%.

 

Some data on play type -

RPO: To hear analysts talk, we run RPOs all the time, like Jackson or Kyler Murray.  Not so much.  We only ran 42 RPOs out of 1018 offensive plays.  We passed 76% of the time. 62.5% completion.

Play action: We used a lot of play action, though: 105 out of 461 pass attempts was play action.  Allen had a great completion % out of play action, 65.6%.

 

OK so here's one I didn't see coming:

Allen completion % with <2.5 seconds in pocket: 66%.  With >2.5 seconds in pocket: 48%.  So when Allen pulls the trigger quickly, success.  I wonder if that is skewed by jet sweeps and the like?  Or is it when he can make a read and hit it from the pocket, he's pretty accurate, but when he has to wait for a route to develop he got pressured and it messed with his ability to throw accurately?

 

I hear you on the screens just not working, but it was never so clear to me why.  Agree we need to fix those plays.  Some had hypothesized because we weren't running successfully enough we couldn't make them work?  But Allen's timing and touch could be part of it, certainly.

Thats a lot of info there & appreciate you putting that together. The RPO bit is surprising. There are tons of NFL stat sites/articles that all state we use a lot of it. I'll post a random image that i found that gives a general overview of such at the end here. But it sure seemed that we used a lot of it while watching the games. I mean you look up Tom Bradys RPO numbers & according to PFR, Allen used the RPO only 11 more times the whole year than Brady did? That just doesn't make sense. There has to be something theyre missing or we're missing with how those numbers are calculated versus what Josh is doing on those plays.

 

While writing this i did some digging & came across an All-22 film room article breaking down Allen's RPO's. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/9/13/17854442/buffalo-bills-all-22-film-room-whats-an-rpo-run-pass-option-zone-read-packaged-plays

From the breakdowns & not knowing what Allen's presnap reads were, its hard to tell if a play is in fact an RPO or if its a Zone Read or something else entirely. So on the surface it may look like we run a lot of them but its just that the cadence of the motion is the same? Or on the flipside perhaps the advanced stats for RPO's are less than actual because theres no real way for a stats site to know what Allens presnap reads were? Idk.

 

But overall i do think it makes sense for us to use them without a doubt. It just requires Allen to be able to make quick on the fly decisions with where to go with the ball. And sometimes it worked out great & others not so much. But when we're running on all cylinders with that play, with so many moving parts its gotta be hell for a defense to defend. I think of Lamar Jackson & how deadly he became from executing that play as well as he did.

Edited January 30, 2020 by brianthomas

[ndirish1978]

21 hours ago, Steptide said:

You could make the argument that the bills should've taken Metcalf over oliver in last years draft. I like the beasley and brown signings, but past those 2, we don't really have any recievers. I'm interested to see if Duke williams becomes anything, but we still need a few solid recievers. 

 

That would be a ridiculous hindsight argument, Metcalf was taken in RD 2.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, brianthomas said:

Thats a lot of info there & appreciate you putting that together. The RPO bit is surprising. There are tons of NFL stat sites/articles that all state we use a lot of it. I'll post a random image that i found that gives a general overview of such at the end here. But it sure seemed that we used a lot of it while watching the games. I mean you look up Tom Bradys RPO numbers & according to PFR, Allen used the RPO only 11 more times the whole year than Brady did? That just doesn't make sense. There has to be something theyre missing or we're missing with how those numbers are calculated versus what Josh is doing on those plays.

 

While writing this i did some digging & came across an All-22 film room article breaking down Allen's RPO's. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/9/13/17854442/buffalo-bills-all-22-film-room-whats-an-rpo-run-pass-option-zone-read-packaged-plays

From the breakdowns & not knowing what Allen's presnap reads were, its hard to tell if a play is in fact an RPO or if its a Zone Read or something else entirely. So on the surface it may look like we run a lot of them but its just that the cadence of the motion is the same? Or on the flipside perhaps the advanced stats for RPO's are less than actual because theres no real way for a stats site to know what Allens presnap reads were? Idk.

 

But overall i do think it makes sense for us to use them without a doubt. It just requires Allen to be able to make quick on the fly decisions with where to go with the ball. And sometimes it worked out great & others not so much. But when we're running on all cylinders with that play, with so many moving parts its gotta be hell for a defense to defend. I think of Lamar Jackson & how deadly he became from executing that play as well as he did.

 

Where did you find said random image? 

 

Pro-football-reference says they get their advanced stats from "Sportradar", which I think may also feed NFL NextGen Stats ...there are some metrics that differ a bit from source to source, like drops, and PFR seems to track with NFL Next Gen rather than PFF, Football Outsiders etc.

 

As far as RPO categorizing its usage as "heavy"  - sorting by rank order, we would be like 11th.  I wonder if they called the top 11 "heavy", the next 11 "moderate", and the next 10 "light", or something of the sort?

 

I think the most striking thing to me was the stat where his completion percentage is so much higher when the ball comes out in <2.5 seconds.  Now, correlation is not causation, so I guess that could mean a number of things...for example, deep pass plays take longer to develop, so maybe they skew the stats >2.5 seconds.  But it seems like it would be worth the Bills drilling into whether working more on a quick-hit passing game would help Josh out.

Take out the longer pass plays that were throws he had known trouble with, and see if it still holds good, for example.

 

4 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I’d love for someone to post Singletary’s run charts. Gores as well. Off the top of my head though it seems like the A gap between Spain and Morse was often clogged, and Singletary did a fair amount of jump cutting behind to follow Dawkins. Now, part of that could be due to traps, etc where one missed a reach block or a TE/FB missed a block. Not sure. 

 

Not going to post them all, but here's the link FWIW.  White and green are pass plays.  They have some threshold where they don't chart that week, not sure what it is.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/devin-singletary/SIN186919/season

They may not show you what you want if you're looking to figure details of the blocking