PFF's QB Annual Report on Allen

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I was expecting 10 pages of "Josh Allen Stinks. Josh Allen stinks. Josh Allen stinks" .... Way to go PFF and Chris Collinsworth you are less predictable than I would have expected.

 

Patience ……………..

[CincyBillsFan]

49 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

His fumbling was borderline comical last year.  In the playoff game he very easily could have had three fumbles.  One he did lose (which arguably changed the outcome of the game, changed the momentum), one knocked out of bounds by Knox and one that was luckily overturned.

 

I guess this proves that you can argue about anything! 

 

The Allen fumble did not change the outcome of the game as it only led to 3 points.  If you want to point fingers at what really changed the outcome of this game here's two that were far more important then Allen's fumble:

 

*  the inability of Brown & Duke to make plays on well thrown Allen passes in the 1st half that would have given us two TD's instead of FG's.

 

*  after the Bills went up 16 - 0 the defense allowed the Texans to go on an 80 yard drive to score a TD and then allowed Houston to make the 2 point conversion. This is what got the crowd back into the game and gave the Texans hope. Suddenly it was only a one score game. Allowing the 2 point conversion was HUGE because had they not made it the Bills would have still led by 2 scores.

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

2 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

That drop % for Knox is disgusting. 

Watching him make those drops was even worse

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Report apparently has nothing to say about ball protection.  It should and we should all be concerned.

[CorkScrewHill]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Because everyone here thinks they are smarter and have better data than professionals who do it for a lving.

 

Also the fact that Bills aren't always rated far above average if not near the top is another reason.

I agree we should trust the professionals. Just to be clear you mean professionals unlike his teammates who swear by him .. or his coaches : management who you know draft and coach players for a living.  You are talking about professionals like Chris Collinsworth who has never practiced with him, never coached but rather owns a company that manipulates data to present in pretty slides that people click on and trust because they are “professionals”.  SMH 

[Captain Hindsight]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

So if he showed so many improvements, why did they grade him so poorly?

Have you seen this guy Duck Hodges? Hard to overcome a talent like that

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Report apparently has nothing to say about ball protection.  It should and we should all be concerned.

 

Why?  Allen was better then a lot of other young QB's at ball protection.  He only threw 9 inceptions which is decent and he lost what 5 fumbles? Given how much he ran with the ball he should be more vulnerable then most QB's to fumbling.  That's the price you pay for all those 3rd down conversions he makes running the ball.

 

And Allen wasn't as bad as the Giants Jones or the Panthers Allen when it came to losing fumbles in the pocket. Those 2 fumbled if they felt the breath of a DE on their neck.

 

Bottom line is that Allen was responsible for 30 TD's and 14 TO's over the course of the season.  That hardly gives me reason to be concerned.  Sure I would like to see his TO's cut in half to 7 but 14 is in no way extreme for a 2nd yer QB.

 

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

 

Thanks for the good laugh.    A bunch of s?     That's essentially what PFF is.    It's not rocket surgery or quantum physics.

 

smh...

 

Who ever said footbal was rocket science, not me.  Arbitraty grades by any  external system will be flawed as it is close to impossible to know what players real assignemnt was, eg did he run the correct route, was he assigned a specific gap, did he block the wrong person, was it supposed to be abcak should pass, was it supposed to go over his left not right shoulder  etc etc bu overall i would prefer a bunch of "20-somethings watching All-22 video" as opposed to the highly biased  "experts" (or at least 95% of them) here at TBD.  

[RoyBatty is alive]

58 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You're batting 1000 today. 

 

The one "fumble" was an attempted lateral, and yes that was bad, but it wasn't a comical fumble, it was a bad decision trying to make a play.  Different cause, different cure.

 

The ball that Allen lost was comical, but not on Allen - that was a textbook QB ball stripping move.  Hit the ball hard on the opposite side and opposite end from the QB's hand when he's holding it in a throwing grip and it comes out.  The comical aspect is that Allen wasn't expecting it because he had 3 (3) of his guys including his LT, between Mercilus and him.  Three offensive blockers, one defender, he should not be sniffing our QB much less hitting him.

 

The overturned "down by contact" fumble is an area where Allen undeniably still needs to improve - when he is extending the ball trying for a 1st down it is vulnerable (on any player).  I've heard that Belicheck coaches NE players to NOT extend the ball for this reason, because it is only a matter of time before there isn't enough evidence to overturn and we lose those.

 

Gee a little testy here,

 

1) It doesnt matter what his intention was, he is damn lucky Knox had to jump at it to know it out of bounds, any non-biased person would label it a fumble but if it makes you fel better to label a attempted lateral, go for it.

 

2) It was comical, he holds the ball like a loaf of bread and that is what happend on that play, call it a textbook strip if you want.

 

Point being Allen does have a serious fumbling issue, you can either accept it our rationalize each one away,  16 fumbles during the regular season, 16 my friend.

 

 

15 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I agree we should trust the professionals. Just to be clear you mean professionals unlike his teammates who swear by him .. or his coaches : management who you know draft and coach players for a living.  You are talking about professionals like Chris Collinsworth who has never practiced with him, never coached but rather owns a company that manipulates data to present in pretty slides that people click on and trust because they are “professionals”.  SMH 

 

 

Oh I agree, as i posted a few back certainly Eric Wood would know what his reall assigment so no doubt he proabaly called what PFF does garbage because he knows what he was supposed to to, PFF has to make an educated guess as would any indenepent ramking system...or any random fan here at TBD.

51 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I guess this proves that you can argue about anything! 

 

The Allen fumble did not change the outcome of the game as it only led to 3 points.  If you want to point fingers at what really changed the outcome of this game here's two that were far more important then Allen's fumble:

 

*  the inability of Brown & Duke to make plays on well thrown Allen passes in the 1st half that would have given us two TD's instead of FG's.

 

*  after the Bills went up 16 - 0 the defense allowed the Texans to go on an 80 yard drive to score a TD and then allowed Houston to make the 2 point conversion. This is what got the crowd back into the game and gave the Texans hope. Suddenly it was only a one score game. Allowing the 2 point conversion was HUGE because had they not made it the Bills would have still led by 2 scores.

 

 

 

 

3 points hmm, didnt we go into overtime, were we not a r oll, could have put the game out of reach.

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, right, that must be the reason. 

 

When Eric Wood gives an interview and talks about PFF grades and how they don't jibe with reality and rot players socks out for that reason, same goes for him.

As i posted a few back certainly Eric Wood would know what his reall assigment so no doubt he proabaly called what PFF does garbage because he knows what he was supposed to to, PFF has to make an educated guess as would any indenepent raNking system...or any random fan here at TBD.

 

Actually i find PFF enterntaining and certain of highe r credibility than 95% of the homer comments here.  I for one dont get all worked up in a fr=enzy because like so many because they might rank a Bil below their expectations.

[Motor26]

36 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Why?  Allen was better then a lot of other young QB's at ball protection.  He only threw 9 inceptions which is decent and he lost what 5 fumbles? Given how much he ran with the ball he should be more vulnerable then most QB's to fumbling.  That's the price you pay for all those 3rd down conversions he makes running the ball.

 

And Allen wasn't as bad as the Giants Jones or the Panthers Allen when it came to losing fumbles in the pocket. Those 2 fumbled if they felt the breath of a DE on their neck.

 

Bottom line is that Allen was responsible for 30 TD's and 14 TO's over the course of the season.  That hardly gives me reason to be concerned.  Sure I would like to see his TO's cut in half to 7 but 14 is in no way extreme for a 2nd yer QB.

 

 

 

There were many times he came close to losing fumbles, or generally carried the ball in a way it could be easily knocked away. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, yungmack said:

So is Singletary's.

Many here have been dead set on the Bills acquiring a big RB.  I think that has been fueled by Derrick Henry’s success.  (And who wouldn’t want a Derrick Henry in their team?)  But I’d rather they focus on finding a RB who can be effective in the passing game as well as rushing game.  It’s a missing facet of the offense now.   Plus it could add a wrinkle to the offense with both that player and Singletary on the field at the same time. 

[MJS]

44 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Have you seen this guy Duck Hodges? Hard to overcome a talent like that

That's what I'm talking about. Considerably worse QB's receive better grades than Allen.

[NewEra]

If I’m Knox, I’m following josh allen around all offseason and trying to catch some passes everyday.  

[C.Biscuit97]

All everyone does is complain about PFF yet you can’t stop commenting in their threads.  

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

That's what I'm talking about. Considerably worse QB's receive better grades than Allen.

Honest question because I don’t study them too closely but what qbs are you talking about?

[GreggTX]

Sounds like PFF is spot on here. One other thought: I'd like to see more of Tom Sweeney in 2020.

[MJS]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

All everyone does is complain about PFF yet you can’t stop commenting in their threads.  

Honest question because I don’t study them too closely but what qbs are you talking about?

Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Oh, and the aforementioned Duck Hodges.

Edited January 28, 2020 by MJS

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Oh, and the aforementioned Duck Hodges.

Is this on a game by game basis or you talking about the whole year?  

[MJS]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Is this on a game by game basis or you talking about the whole year?  

Those are just ranked ahead of Josh Allen on their end of season QB rankings. Also, Tannehill is ranked 4th overall by them. But he had a pretty nice run.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Sounds like PFF is spot on here. One other thought: I'd like to see more of Tom Sweeney in 2020.

 

You may get your wish.  One of McBeane - either Beane or McDermott - commented that it was a difficult call every week whether Sweeney would be active.  So if he has a good off season...

 

As far as QB rankings being spot on, see MJS post about QB ranked above him.  All those pass the "eyeball and end results" test for you?

 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Those are just ranked ahead of Josh Allen on their end of season QB rankings. Also, Tannehill is ranked 4th overall by them. But he had a pretty nice run.

I could argue some of those guys did have better years but Flacco and Duck are pretty awful.  Probably should check those numbers again if Duck isn’t last on your list. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Not sure what the policy is in terms of pasting premium content, so I'm going to hold off on pasting the entire thing, but PFF released their QB Annual Report today with roughly 10 pages of content for each QB. Some of the main takeaways for Allen:

 

1. His improvement this year as a passer showed up in literally every passer rating category that they track. Passer rating when kept clean improved from 79.8 to 95.2. Passer rating with no blitz improved from 70.1 to 89.6. Passer rating under pressure improved from 47.4 to 60.5. Passer rating when blitzed improved from 62.9 to 78.0. Passer rating on 3rd down improved from 49 to 92.8. Passer rating in the red zone improved from 75.8 to 95.8. 
2. Having said that, the improvement did not show up in terms of PFF's Accuracy metrics. Last year, he hit the WR's frame on 53.7% of his passes; that dropped to 53.0% this year. Last year, he threw a catchable ball on 73.5% of his passes; that number didn't move at all this season (though confusingly, they also track "on target %" and they show Allen improving from 64.7% as a rookie to 71.7% this season). There are some improvements to be seen when you break it down by pass distance though. In terms of hitting the WR's frame, Rookie Allen was 3.2% worse than the average QB on passes behind the line of scrimmage, 3.5% worse on 0-9 yard passes, 3.9% worse on 10-19 yard passes, and 8.2% worse on 20+ yard passes. This year's Allen was 2.1% better on passes behind the line of scrimmage, 5.5% worse on 0-9 yard passes, 6.4% better on 10-19 yard passes, and 20.6% worse on 20+ yard passes. So all in all, he was legitimately good on the screens/swings and intermediate passes this year, but was bad on the 0-9 yard passes and ungodly terrible on deep balls. PFF has found that the shorter stuff is generally more stable year over year, whereas the deep ball comes and goes; based on that, they believe Allen's overall gains this year are pretty promising for his future projection.
3. Route distribution was more or less the same as it was a year ago. There wasn't really any movement in terms of which routes Allen threw more of in Year 2 as compared to Year 1.
4. Having said that, the routes seemed to be pulled in shorter this year; 51% of his passes as a rookie were within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage versus 62% this year. That resulted in his average depth of target decreasing from 11.5 yards as a rookie to 9.8 yards this year.
5. In his rookie year, 6.8% of his targeted passes were dropped. This season, that number increased to 7.1%, so that's obviously disappointing. A breakdown of each receiver:
   1. John Brown: 2.8%
   2. Cole Beasley: 6.3%
   3. Dawson Knox: 18.4%
   4. Devin Singletary: 13.2%
   5. Isaiah McKenzie: 2.9%

Edit: Staying away from the PFF Grades that are included since people seem to very much not be fans of their grades lol, but the grades remain mostly very bad, though there was some improvement in areas.

 

Allens "accuracy" this year was substantially dragged down by the deep misses over 30.  It was so poor there, that it really affected his overall accuracy numbers.  But he was a lot more accurate this year than last in other parts of the field IMO.  

Edited January 28, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[MJS]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I could argue some of those guys did have better years but Flacco and Duck are pretty awful.  Probably should check those numbers again if Duck isn’t last on your list. 

They didn't include Hodges in the end of season ranking, but they gave him great grades in the weeks leading up to the Bills game.

 

I don't think Allen deserves anything more than average grades, but he shouldn't be ranked as the 28th QB in the league. He's better than that.

[Alphadawg7]

27 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

 

There were many times he came close to losing fumbles, or generally carried the ball in a way it could be easily knocked away. 

 

This is true for all QB's even the greats...there are many times they should have thrown a pick or lost a fumble but didn't for whatever reason.  So lets not pretend this is unique to Josh as if its a monster problem.

 

Most importantly, after the NE game...Josh put up 21 TD's (second most in NFL behind only Lamar) and just 3 Turnovers over that span.  He certainly got a LOT better protecting the ball after learning some hard lessons early in the season.  

 

And like someone pointed out, not too shabby for a 2nd year QB...who also saw the Bills drop the most passes in the NFL and was saddled with a top 3 WR group made up of receivers 5'11", 5'8" and 5'8" tall (and only 2 of them are really worthy of being top 3 guys on any team).  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is true for all QB's even the greats...there are many times they should have thrown a pick or lost a fumble but didn't for whatever reason.  So lets not pretend this is unique to Josh as if its a monster problem.

 

Most importantly, after the NE game...Josh put up 21 TD's (second most in NFL behind only Lamar) and just 3 Turnovers over that span.  He certainly got a LOT better protecting the ball after learning some hard lessons early in the season.  

 

And like someone pointed out, not too shabby for a 2nd year QB...who also saw the Bills drop the most passes in the NFL and was saddled with a top 3 WR group made up of receivers 5'11", 5'8" and 5'8" tall (and only 2 of them are really worthy of being top 3 guys on any team).  

Honestly, this year should tell us one way or another.  On paper, it is a much, much tougher schedule.  What I want to see is if the defense slips, and given the competition, it may, Allen carry this team.  I still have some questions about that.  He has shown flashes but never consistently.  

[GreggTX]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

They didn't include Hodges in the end of season ranking, but they gave him great grades in the weeks leading up to the Bills game.

 

I don't think Allen deserves anything more than average grades, but he shouldn't be ranked as the 28th QB in the league. He's better than that.

 

I agree Allen is average overall, but that's only when you factor in his elite open field running. I just hope his ability as a passer takes a huge leap in terms of his mental game because I don't see his accuracy getting considerably better. There is hope, but I really wish we had a top 3 passing QB.

[123719bwiqrb]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

People only remember the circus catches and the stiff arms.

 

He was NOT GOOD this year.

I liked what I saw out of Sweeney vs the Jets.  I'd like to see what he can do long term.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, GreggTX said:

 

I agree Allen is average overall, but that's only when you factor in his elite open field running. I just hope his ability as a passer takes a huge leap in terms of his mental game because I don't see his accuracy getting considerably better. There is hope, but I really wish we had a top 3 passing QB.

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem at all. He can whip the ball around with the best of them and can be pin point accurate. His problem is decision making and taking what the defense gives him. Completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

I liked what I saw out of Sweeney vs the Jets.  I'd like to see what he can do long term.

 

Sweeny - and not Kroft - should have been the other tight end on the field with Knox.

 

I haven't lost faith in Knox.  I love the kid.  But he has to catch passes that touch his hands and/or chest.  100% of them.

 

Kroft is a worthless piece of *****.

[DCOrange]

13 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem at all. He can whip the ball around with the best of them and can be pin point accurate. His problem is decision making and taking what the defense gives him. Completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.

He definitely is not as accurate as most other starting QBs. I do think the mental side of things is a larger issue at this point though. I think he’s accurate enough to be a good QB if he gets the reads and decisions right.

 

Definitely hope to see him improve the deep ball though. I don’t need it to be good or even necessarily average, but it has to be at least a part of his game. This past season it was not. 

[JoPoy88]

18 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem at all. He can whip the ball around with the best of them and can be pin point accurate. His problem is decision making and taking what the defense gives him. Completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.

his deep ball accuracy is most definitely a problem. there is no decision making deficiency in correctly identifying a wide open receiver who has gotten behind the entire defense and proceeding to overthrow him by 5 yards. That’s leaving points on the field and that’s a problem.
 

Short and intermediate accuracy to both the sidelines and middle of the field though was much, much improved from his rookie year. 

[transplantbillsfan]

The drop percentage is both disgusting and encouraging moving forward.

 

Disgusting because they both had very high drop percentages and the 2 of them combined for nearly 20% of Allen's total passes this year.

 

Encouraging because they're both rookies and I'll attribute the excessive dropsies to the rookie yips.  

 

I think both will be better moving forward.  I'm particularly excited about Knox once he learns how to hold onto the football.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

He definitely is not as accurate as most other starting QBs. I do think the mental side of things is a larger issue at this point though. I think he’s accurate enough to be a good QB if he gets the reads and decisions right.

 

Definitely hope to see him improve the deep ball though. I don’t need it to be good or even necessarily average, but it has to be at least a part of his game. This past season it was not. 

That's bull.

[Da webster guy]

5 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

That drop % for Knox is disgusting. 

 

it sure is.   it basically rounds out to dropping one out of every 5 passes.

 

Oddly, he had our best two catches of the year in terms of difficulty, but he will be out of football if he doesn't cut that number in half.   

Remember, he never caught any passes in college, the only real film we have on him is what he's done since he's been here, and he dropped quite a few in camp too.  More than anyone else for the practices I saw.

[Billl]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem at all. He can whip the ball around with the best of them and can be pin point accurate. His problem is decision making and taking what the defense gives him. Completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.

So what inaccurate QBs have high completion percentages?  What other accurate passers but finished dead last in the league in completion percentage in consecutive seasons?

Edited January 29, 2020 by Billl

[Mat68]

Imo, PFF put some of those Qbs above Allen to click bait Bills fans.  Allen was the 2nd best Qb out of his draft class last year.  He looks poised to make a leap in year 3.  

[Stank_Nasty]

7 hours ago, DCOrange said:

My personal opinion is that their stats are undeniably helpful and interesting. Their grades are much, much more debatable. And in general, Bills fans seem to think higher of their players than PFF does.

They ranked FIRST TEAM ALL PRO Tre white the 19th overall corner in the league. It’s not just bills fans that seem to think higher of some of our players. Basically everyone else on the planet saw a better player in white than what PFF saw. 
 

how can somebody see that ranking and doing anything but laugh? It’s really hard to take that seriously. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Imo, PFF put some of those Qbs above Allen to click bait Bills fans.  Allen was the 2nd best Qb out of his draft class last year.  He looks poised to make a leap in year 3.  

 

Nah, they don't care enough about Bills fans.  They honestly believe in their stuff.

 

 

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

They ranked FIRST TEAM ALL PRO Tre white the 19th overall corner in the league. It’s not just bills fans that seem to think higher of some of our players. Basically everyone else on the planet saw a better player in white than what PFF saw. 
 

how can somebody see that ranking and doing anything but laugh? It’s really hard to take that seriously. 

Sure but that’s one player. They’re ranking thousands of players; of course people will disagree with some rankings. 

[LSHMEAB]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I know, right? 

 

Especially considering it's very consistent (edit: actually, PFR and NFL stats are worse - a full 20% drops!) between different stat sites that score drops a bit differently - and that it just includes drops, not "catches top TE make routinely but I don't" or "route variations where I didn't provide clear enough body language to let Josh know which I was running" or "totally whiffed blocks that got my QB plastered" (I grant him that asking a rook to block an all pro isn't all on him that it didn't work)

 

I like Knox, I really do.  I want to see him be the Beast that he shows the potential to become.  But I also want to see the Bills not "bet" the TE situation "rent" on Knox, Sweeney, Kroft, or Croom because maybe one or more of them will step up and improve next year - or maybe they won't.

I wouldn't bet the farm, but there is a very good chance Knox can cut down on that drop rate considering he's relatively inexperienced as a pass catcher. He's got big play ability and "explosiveness," something the offense is severely lacking. Brown has top end speed, but explosive? Not so sure. It's such a cliche, but many of the Knox drops were just a matter of turning upfield before securing the ball.

 

The drops with Knox were almost entirely on Knox. As far as Singletary's drop rate, I'm going to have to place some of the blame on Allen. He was much, much better in the short/intermediate game, but he still wasn't particularly good at throwing dumpoffs/screens right on target. Considering Singletary also has very limited experience as a receiver, I'm not overly concerned.