My Off-Season Primer: Position Group: WR

[The Firebaugh Kid]

21 hours ago, Carbonpoke said:

On your list of draftable players, I think you should include Omar Bayless.  

 

https://youtu.be/APtPJSWlEKg

 

He has a hell of a chip on his shoulders as well

 

https://www.wdam.com/2019/12/21/tragedy-drives-laurel-native-omar-bayless-stunning-senior-season/

 

Wanted to add this for character reference

 

 

That highlight reel on youtube is stupid good. I'm in love. What a deep wr draft!!!

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

@MAJBobby can I put in A request for edge?  ?‍♂️ 

[Luka]

My dream scenario for this group is Perriman in free agency and Van Jefferson in the 2nd or 3rd, Gandy-Golden in the 6th. 

[MAJBobby]

2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

@MAJBobby can I put in A request for edge?  ?‍♂️ 

Ok. Can do DE  to start off. 

Edited January 11, 2020 by MAJBobby

[HappyDays]

Shenault is my draft crush this year but I don't see him lasting into the 20s. I wouldn't put it past Beane to trade up for him but I'd rather stay put and draft the best pass rusher available. My targets in the 2nd/3rd round are Michael Pittman and Collin Johnson. If Duke Williams proved anything it's that Allen likes feeding the ball to a tall receiver. Collin Johnson in particular has an incredible catch radius. I'd rather draft a player like that on day 2 than reach for Tee Higgins in the 1st, JMO. AJ Green is my #1 free agency target on offense. So our rookie receiver doesn't have to be forced into a full time role before he's ready.

[Mark Vader]

Another great report @MAJBobby.

 

I agree with you about John Brown. I wanted the Bills to sign him the previous year, but I did not expect to see what a great all around receiver he has turned into. I remember when  he was strictly a deep threat in Arizona. Boy as he really upped his game.

 

As for upgrading this off season, I would be alright with giving AJ Green a 1 year deal, if not then going after a second tier player would be wise. Perriman would be a very nice addition.

 

In the draft, I really like Tee Higgins & Justin Jefferson, and would be happy with either one of them. Michael Pittman, Collin Johnson & Donovan Peoples-Jones are other intriguing receivers.

 

For a late day 3 pick, I would love to see the Bills go after James Proche. Yes, he would be a slot receiver, but if you had seen any of his games, he was a very reliable target.

 

Lots of interesting ways the Bills could go here with this position.

[DuckyBoys]

Shenault is very intriguing .  Tee Higgins looks slow  I dont see him as a much different to Duke  Guess the combine will tell but he looks like a 4.65 40 yard dash type of tall rangy wr

[hjnick]

From last year's offseason, going into the Draft, IMO, Beane will have enough quality depth at positions that he can take BPA in the 1st round.

 

So I think he will sign in free agency:

legit WR

legit OT

legit DE

 

After that, I think he will be trying to resign what we already have (other than Shaq and Phillips).

 

Hopefully that BPA is a DE or WR, with a lean toward WR. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Also, just say no to Alghalor.

 

He's awful.

 

[WideRightRevenge]

On 1/10/2020 at 2:55 PM, MAJBobby said:

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  wit this I am wrapping up Offense and Special Teams and I will be on to the Defense starting next week.  Hope you enjoy the read.   ***NOTE*** Please do not turn this into an AJ Green Thread.

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Specialists

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 6 players 19.372M Cap (ranked 15th in league)

 

John Brown (UFA 2022) – Saves 6.518M against cap if Cut

 

Cole Beasley (UFA 2023) – Saves 2.568M against cap if Cut

 

Andre Roberts (UFA 2021) – Saves 1.5M against cap if Cut

 

Duke Williams (EFRA 2021) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut

 

Nick Easley (signed futures deal) -

 

Ray-Ray McCloud (signed futures deal)

 

 

 

Expiring Contracts:

 

Isaiah McKenzie (25 yrs old) (RFA) (600K AVV)

 

Robert Foster (26 yrs old) (EFRA) (525K AVV)

 

 

 

My Take:

 

 

 

First, I will address the expiring contracts. They really are not expiring contracts because McKenzie will get the Original Tender and be back, I don’t think Bills need to go anything higher than the original tender to keep him.  Foster will get his EFRA tender and be back. These are both players that need to be replaced but will be back just because of their contract status of both being very cheap to bring back.  I will never really understand what happened with Foster this year, compared to last year, it looked like he was poised to break out and be a NO1 WR, he never did, he has had motivation issues in the past did that catch back up with him?  But the reality is Duke Williams brings more to this offense and the numbers show that out as well.  

 

 

 

Isaiah McKenzie– 39 TGTs, 254 yards 1 TD, Catch Rate 69% and a DVOA -20.8%,

 

Robert Foster– 18 TGTs, 64 yards, 0 TDs, Catch Rate 17% 2 DPI Drawn 58 yards and a DVOA -42.0%

 

Duke Williams – 19 TGTs, 166 yards, 1 TD, Catch Rate 63% and a DVOA +2.8%

 

 

 

Now to the other WRs (not Roberts he is a Return Man not a WR).  Brown and Beasley.  Both have been great additions as well but looking at the dead money on these guys knowing they were JUST SIGNED I have to tip my hat to Beane.  And thing point I am going to bold here but you can look at all the UFAs Beane as signed in my other position groups they are all essentially on year deals with easy outs.  This is amazing cap management and solidifies to me that they can go get WHOEVER they want and not hurt their cap long term because he has shown a capability to craft cap friendly early outs.  So not back on task.

 

 

 

John Brown – 115 TGTs, 1060 yards, 6 TDs, Catch Rate 63%, 4 Drops (T19th in NFL) and a DVOA +11.1% (Ranks 22nd in NFL)

 

Cole Beasley – 105 TGTs, 778 yards, 6 TDs, Catch Rate 64%, 5 Drops (T10th in NFL), drew 1 DPI for 26 yards and a DVOA of +2.5 (Ranks 39th in NFL)

 

 

 

I probably am going to get fragged for this, but John Brown is an excellent WR2 not a WR1.  But that being said, I do like John Brown at a top end WR1B or WR2.  I think the worst play from him that I saw was the failed toe tap in the WC game, I know he logged 4 drops, but I don’t remember one really hurting a drive IE Big spot like I can with Knox’s and Beasley drops.  But either way another thing I do like that Brown gave is that 73.6% of his catches resulted in a first down. Which ranks him in 8th in the NFL with WRs and TEs with over 50 catches.  What I knew about him coming into Buffalo was he was blazing fast and that was confirmed, what I didn’t know and what he opened my eyes up to is how complete of a WR he is.  His route running is exceptional as well he always seemed to me that he was open, he easily would find holes in Zones, and in Man coverage he was always gaining separation out of his breaks as well.  This was a good signing from Buffalo and see why they also tried to sign him last year. 

 

 

 

Beasley also had a respectable 1st down conversion of 55.2% of his catches resulting in First down.  What I noticed about him, is he is better against man than he is against a zone.  I think the reason that is the way he runs routes and the crispness off then he gets immediate separation out of breaks.  Against a zone it is more of a feel to find the soft-spot or the seam in the zone.  My Cowboy friends told me that if he gets bracketed it can take him out of games, and I think that was seen as well.  Get another legit threat at WR or TE and it becomes much harder to do that too him.

 

 

 

The organizational depth in this group is atrocious.  There are really only 2 NFL caliber WRs on this roster and needs infusion of talent. So, I can see another offseason like last with going into the position multiple times, maybe a couple lower tier WRs via UFA and using a 1st or 2nd in the draft, or even a couple of draft picks.  How this position group gets addressed this offseason will be interesting.      

 

 

 

Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB):

 

OBJ – really is the only one I have heard so far as possibly being available this offseason.

 

 

 

UFAs Possible

 

Tier 1

 

AJ Green

 

Amari Cooper

 

Larry Fitzgerald

 

Emmanuel Sanders

 

Robbie Anderson (I wont downgrade him because of his off-field stuff)

 

 

 

Tier 2

 

Randall Cobb

 

Zach Pascal (EFRA) - meaning he 99.99999999999999999% is staying in Indy

Nelson Agholor

 

Breshad Perriman

 

Demarcus Robinson

 

Philip Dorsett

 

 

 

Draft (adding size here because I know people want to know that when talking WR)

 

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

 

Outside:

Jerry Jeudy (6’1, 192) (Alabama)

 

CeeDee Lamb (6’2 189) (Oklahoma)

 

Tee Higgins (6’4 200) (Clemson)

 

Laviska Shenault Jr. (6’2 220) (Colorado)

 

Henry Ruggs III (6’0 183) (Alabama)

 

Tyler Johnson (6’2 200) (Minnesota)

 

Justin Jefferson (6’2 185) (LSU)

 

Michael Pittman Jr. (6’4 223) (USC)

 

 

 

Slot:

 

Jalen Reagor (5’11 195) (TCU)

 

KJ Hamler (5’9 174) (Penn ST)

 

Aaron Fuller (5’11 186) (Washington)

 

 

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

 

Outside:

 

Collin Johnson (6’6 220) (Texas)

 

Brandon Aiyuk (6’0 208) (Az ST)

 

Donovan People-Jones (6’2 208) (Michigan)

 

 

 

Slot:

 

None

 

 

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

 

Outside:

 

John Hightower (6’2 184) (Boise State)

 

KJ Hill (6’0 195) (Ohio St)

 

Antonio Gandy-Golden (6’4 216) (Liberty)

 

Chase Claypool (6’4 227) (ND)

 

Gabriel Davis (6’3 212) (UCF)

 

Denzel Mims (6’3 197) (Baylor)

 

Quinten Cephus (6’1 207) (Wisconsin)

 

Isaiah Hodgins (6’4 209) (Oregon State)

 

Bryan Edwards (6’3 215) (South Carolina)

 

 

 

Slot:

 

Devin Duvernay (5’11 186) (Texas)

 

James Poche (5’11 190) (SMU)

 

 

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

 

 

This position group needs work with right now only two legit NFL receivers on the roster.  Before I start with what I would do let me address what this would turn into.  AJ Green if I can get him to accept a Prove it Deal a 1-year 12M with little GTD I would.  Or I would also offer about what his value will be (with INJ and age) 2-year 19M with 9M GTD, 9.5M AVV.  But I don’t think he would accept that.  Now what I would like Bills to look at.

 

 

 

Go after a Tier 2 WR in UFA.  My Choice will be Breshard Perriman I don’t think Tampa is in a position to sign him.  And I think a Cole Beasley Contract is acceptable and will get it done 4 years 29M, 12 GTD with a 7.25M AVV and an easy out after the first year.  That will give you the same Deep speed as Foster and allows for the Rookie not to have to come right in and excel.  He really came on late in the year with Tampa.  That give me at last 3 real NFL WRs on the roster before the draft. 

 

 

 

In the draft I would take 2.  One early and one late.  My Early target right now is Laviska Shenault.  Reason why is he has the skill set right now we are filling with players.  Big and Powerful (Duke Williams). Plenty of Speed (will time in 4.4s or lower, Robert Foster) and can run jet sweeps, out of backfield, QB the WC similar to McKenzie).  He also has a good catch radius and can high point balls.

 

 

 

In Later round get be the Big TGT for competition with Duke Williams so like a Hodgins, Claypool, Mims.

 

 

 

This is the position group I would like addressed in the first round.  You Can see in round 3-5 the depth thins out in the outside WR group, so a lot of those Tier 3 guys are going to be over drafted.  Yes it is a deep draft like everyone is saying but that depth I fully anticipate will get gone fast, and if we wait until the second round (where we are picking we are going to miss out)

 

 

GREAT WORK Bobby ... this is awesome reading now that we're in the offseason .. thanks so much for the effort and detail.  AWESOME!!!

 

[DCOrange]

Going to be more nit-picky about this one because I care more about addressing this position than the rest:

• Realistically, I think Amari is probably in a tier all by himself. He's a border-line elite WR; none of the other tier 1 guys (besides maybe AJ if he comes back healthy) are in that discussion.
• Not sure if the draft grades are yours or from somewhere else, but I think Aiyuk is generally considered a 1st-2nd round prospect (probably more 2nd round) and Tyler Johnson is definitely not considered a 1st-2nd round prospect at this point.
• As far as trade candidates go, this is purely speculation on my part, but I wouldn't be surprised if the following guys are available: Sammy Watkins (but highly doubt we'd be interested), Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffery, Corey Davis.

As for what I would personally do:

1. I'd try to trade for one of the guys mentioned above (obviously price depends on which guy you're getting, but I think they're all worth pursuing).
2. Assuming we do not acquire any of those guys, I'd aggressively pursue AJ Green. With his age, we can likely overpay him on a short-term deal. He checks every box we're looking for and it would be easy to get out of his contract when we need to. I would also be fine with Robby Anderson if McBeane thinks he's fine personality-wise.
3. Assuming we have AJ Green in hand already, I'd turn my attention to the draft. If Ruggs or Lamb make it to our pick somehow, I'd take them. My guess is those two, Jeudy, and Higgins are all gone though. In that event, I'd be fine with skipping WR in the first round and seeing who makes it to our 2nd round pick. As of today, I'd be happy to get Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, or Brandon Aiyuk in the 2nd round, though I wouldn't be surprised if any of them end up being gone by our pick anyways. We'll have to circle back on this as the draft gets closer and draft stock changes. I'd also be in favor of scooping someone up on Day 3. Basically, come out of the draft with someone that can potentially turn into an X WR and someone that can turn into a Y to develop behind AJ and Cole.

Basically, the end result is:

X: AJ Green

Z: John Brown

Y: Cole Beasley

Backups: Rookie, Duke, Foster

 

I suppose we can bring McKenzie back if we want, but $2.1 million for him is a little much IMO. I'd be pretty happy to just roll with the guys listed above.

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Going to be more nit-picky about this one because I care more about addressing this position than the rest:

• Realistically, I think Amari is probably in a tier all by himself. He's a border-line elite WR; none of the other tier 1 guys (besides maybe AJ if he comes back healthy) are in that discussion.
• Not sure if the draft grades are yours or from somewhere else, but I think Aiyuk is generally considered a 1st-2nd round prospect (probably more 2nd round) and Tyler Johnson is definitely not considered a 1st-2nd round prospect at this point.
• As far as trade candidates go, this is purely speculation on my part, but I wouldn't be surprised if the following guys are available: Sammy Watkins (but highly doubt we'd be interested), Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffery, Corey Davis.

As for what I would personally do:

1. I'd try to trade for one of the guys mentioned above (obviously price depends on which guy you're getting, but I think they're all worth pursuing).
2. Assuming we do not acquire any of those guys, I'd aggressively pursue AJ Green. With his age, we can likely overpay him on a short-term deal. He checks every box we're looking for and it would be easy to get out of his contract when we need to. I would also be fine with Robby Anderson if McBeane thinks he's fine personality-wise.
3. Assuming we have AJ Green in hand already, I'd turn my attention to the draft. If Ruggs or Lamb make it to our pick somehow, I'd take them. My guess is those two, Jeudy, and Higgins are all gone though. In that event, I'd be fine with skipping WR in the first round and seeing who makes it to our 2nd round pick. As of today, I'd be happy to get Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, or Brandon Aiyuk in the 2nd round, though I wouldn't be surprised if any of them end up being gone by our pick anyways. We'll have to circle back on this as the draft gets closer and draft stock changes. I'd also be in favor of scooping someone up on Day 3. Basically, come out of the draft with someone that can potentially turn into an X WR and someone that can turn into a Y to develop behind AJ and Cole.

Basically, the end result is:

X: AJ Green

Z: John Brown

Y: Cole Beasley

Backups: Rookie, Duke, Foster

 

I suppose we can bring McKenzie back if we want, but $2.1 million for him is a little much IMO. I'd be pretty happy to just roll with the guys listed above.

the draft grades on all these are my initial grades. I am sure some can go up and some can go down as I dig into them some more now that I am in full offseason mode 

[DCOrange]

16 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

the draft grades on all these are my initial grades. I am sure some can go up and some can go down as I dig into them some more now that I am in full offseason mode 

Gotcha. Very cool, good work as always!

[Victory Formation]

I’m hoping that we keep McKenzie. He’s good for a few big plays a game. Obviously Brown and Beasley are solid performers as well. Andre Roberts is also a solid return man, I think I’d keep him around for his contributions to STs alone. Some folks may say he’s average but he has sure hands and he constantly pushes the ball out to the 20-25. I actually like Roberts for that reason alone. I’d like us to draft two guys RDS 1-3. Double up on a need area in a deep draft. I see our WR group as: Brown, Beasley, McKenzie, Roberts, draft, draft. Wouldn’t mind Henry Ruggs RD1 and to follow through with Stephen Guidry in RD3.

 

1. Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama

2. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

3. Stephen Guidry, WR, Mississippi State

 

Free Agency

Jordan Jenkins, DE/OLB, 4yrs $40M

Shaq Lawson, LE, 3yrs $27M

Brian Bulaga, RT, 3yrs $30M

 

Work out extensions for some of our young guys.

 

[Ayjent]

For those of you wanting some video of the prospects - I like these every snap videos because you can see a couple of things that the highlights won't show you - effort on every down, blocking, how they get off the LOS, the variety of places they would line up, and how teams would play against them.  I tried to put the games against the best teams they faced if it was available for realistic targets the Bills may have the chance to get if they stay put at 22 or lower rounds.

 

Tee Higgins vs South Carolina (good Defense, two nice TD catches)

Justin Jefferson vs Auburn (not going to make you a big fan of him - some inconsistent effort IMO and I like Jefferson - but the more I watch these game snap videos the less I like Jefferson and the more I like other players)

Michael Pittman Jr vs Utah (very good game for Pittman, also notice the effort on blocking - springs a TD run and several other solid efforts lead to good runs - I really like him for the Bills, his all around game and ability to adjust to throws not on target, run after catch, and blocking) -

Chase Claypool vs Georgia (nice catches at the end, but I see why he isn't in the Day 1 or 2 conversation, struggles getting off press for a big guy, not a great receiver in traffic)

Gabriel Davis vs Pitt (good size, sometimes inconsistent effort, but leading AAC receiver and ability to go after the ball)

Van Jefferson vs LSU (hard to assess Jefferson's career, played with subpar QB, but he plays a good deal against Stingley who is one of the best CBs in the country)

Freddie Swain vs Georgia (late round to UDFA slot receiver - has good speed and runs good routes, pretty decent hands as well)

Joe Reed vs FSU (late round to UDFA - very good kick returner, good size, speed and hands - a guy that could easily be a guy that could take over for both Roberts' and McKenzie's roles)

 

 

Ideally, I really like Pittman Jr and Reed - two tough WRs that are good blockers, physical, and have good body control.  I also like bringing in Swain for a back up slot WR if he is an UDFA.  Maybe these aren't elite players, but they are guys that will bring effort and skills that the Bills are a little short on.

Edited January 13, 2020 by Ayjent

[DCOrange]

42 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

For those of you wanting some video of the prospects - I like these every snap videos because you can see a couple of things that the highlights won't show you - effort on every down, blocking, how they get off the LOS, the variety of places they would line up, and how teams would play against them.  I tried to put the games against the best teams they faced if it was available for realistic targets the Bills may have the chance to get if they stay put at 22 or lower rounds.

 

Tee Higgins vs South Carolina (good Defense, two nice TD catches)

Justin Jefferson vs Auburn (not going to make you a big fan of him - some inconsistent effort IMO and I like Jefferson - but the more I watch these game snap videos the less I like Jefferson and the more I like other players)

Michael Pittman Jr vs Utah (very good game for Pittman, also notice the effort on blocking - springs a TD run and several other solid efforts lead to good runs - I really like him for the Bills, his all around game and ability to adjust to throws not on target, run after catch, and blocking) -

Chase Claypool vs Georgia (nice catches at the end, but I see why he isn't in the Day 1 or 2 conversation, struggles getting off press for a big guy, not a great receiver in traffic)

Gabriel Davis vs Pitt (good size, sometimes inconsistent effort, but leading AAC receiver and ability to go after the ball)

Van Jefferson vs LSU (hard to assess Jefferson's career, played with subpar QB, but he plays a good deal against Stingley who is one of the best CBs in the country)

Freddie Swain vs Georgia (late round to UDFA slot receiver - has good speed and runs good routes, pretty decent hands as well)

Joe Reed vs FSU (late round to UDFA - very good kick returner, good size, speed and hands - a guy that could easily be a guy that could take over for both Roberts' and McKenzie's roles)

 

 

Ideally, I really like Pittman Jr and Reed - two tough WRs that are good blockers, physical, and have good body control.  I also like bringing in Swain for a back up slot WR if he is an UDFA.  Maybe these aren't elite players, but they are guys that will bring effort and skills that the Bills are a little short on.

 

I came away from these videos a lot more impressed with Pittman than I expected to be and kinda lukewarm on Higgins. Think Van Jefferson could be a good value play if for some reason we don't draft a WR early.

Edited January 13, 2020 by DCOrange

[Ayjent]

52 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I came away from these videos a lot more impressed with Pittman than I expected to be and kinda lukewarm on Higgins. Think Van Jefferson could be a good value play if for some reason we don't draft a WR early.

Yeah, the more I watched Pittman the more I really like his game - tough and big dude, plays big and a really willing blocker.  Higgins and Jefferson kinda play small even though both are tall.  They are both a little more explosive than Pittman in space, but they can also disappear for stretches in games and although both don't mind sticking their noses into block, both will play patty cake sometimes too or just stand in space waiting for the CB to react rather than engaging to make sure they can block who they are supposed to.  In the NFL, those DBs are going to be more difficult to pick up if you're not on them.  Pittman seems to be a guy that is really consistent all game long and an ideal possession receiver that can also be a long ball option because of his ability to go up for the ball.  Reminds me a little of Andre Reed to be honest.

 

Freddie Swain is a guy that is underrated too - he knows how to get open (thus the nickname "7-11").  Really tough to cover and has a burst.  This draft is so damn deep at WR.  If the Bills can't find one or more in this draft they just don't know how to identify the position.

Edited January 13, 2020 by Ayjent

[Big Turk]

On 1/10/2020 at 2:55 PM, MAJBobby said:

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  wit this I am wrapping up Offense and Special Teams and I will be on to the Defense starting next week.  Hope you enjoy the read.   ***NOTE*** Please do not turn this into an AJ Green Thread.

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Specialists

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 6 players 19.372M Cap (ranked 15th in league)

 

John Brown (UFA 2022) – Saves 6.518M against cap if Cut

 

Cole Beasley (UFA 2023) – Saves 2.568M against cap if Cut

 

Andre Roberts (UFA 2021) – Saves 1.5M against cap if Cut

 

Duke Williams (EFRA 2021) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut

 

Nick Easley (signed futures deal) -

 

Ray-Ray McCloud (signed futures deal)

 

 

 

Expiring Contracts:

 

Isaiah McKenzie (25 yrs old) (RFA) (600K AVV)

 

Robert Foster (26 yrs old) (EFRA) (525K AVV)

 

 

 

My Take:

 

 

 

First, I will address the expiring contracts. They really are not expiring contracts because McKenzie will get the Original Tender and be back, I don’t think Bills need to go anything higher than the original tender to keep him.  Foster will get his EFRA tender and be back. These are both players that need to be replaced but will be back just because of their contract status of both being very cheap to bring back.  I will never really understand what happened with Foster this year, compared to last year, it looked like he was poised to break out and be a NO1 WR, he never did, he has had motivation issues in the past did that catch back up with him?  But the reality is Duke Williams brings more to this offense and the numbers show that out as well.  

 

 

 

Isaiah McKenzie– 39 TGTs, 254 yards 1 TD, Catch Rate 69% and a DVOA -20.8%,

 

Robert Foster– 18 TGTs, 64 yards, 0 TDs, Catch Rate 17% 2 DPI Drawn 58 yards and a DVOA -42.0%

 

Duke Williams – 19 TGTs, 166 yards, 1 TD, Catch Rate 63% and a DVOA +2.8%

 

 

 

Now to the other WRs (not Roberts he is a Return Man not a WR).  Brown and Beasley.  Both have been great additions as well but looking at the dead money on these guys knowing they were JUST SIGNED I have to tip my hat to Beane.  And thing point I am going to bold here but you can look at all the UFAs Beane as signed in my other position groups they are all essentially on year deals with easy outs.  This is amazing cap management and solidifies to me that they can go get WHOEVER they want and not hurt their cap long term because he has shown a capability to craft cap friendly early outs.  So not back on task.

 

 

 

John Brown – 115 TGTs, 1060 yards, 6 TDs, Catch Rate 63%, 4 Drops (T19th in NFL) and a DVOA +11.1% (Ranks 22nd in NFL)

 

Cole Beasley – 105 TGTs, 778 yards, 6 TDs, Catch Rate 64%, 5 Drops (T10th in NFL), drew 1 DPI for 26 yards and a DVOA of +2.5 (Ranks 39th in NFL)

 

 

 

I probably am going to get fragged for this, but John Brown is an excellent WR2 not a WR1.  But that being said, I do like John Brown at a top end WR1B or WR2.  I think the worst play from him that I saw was the failed toe tap in the WC game, I know he logged 4 drops, but I don’t remember one really hurting a drive IE Big spot like I can with Knox’s and Beasley drops.  But either way another thing I do like that Brown gave is that 73.6% of his catches resulted in a first down. Which ranks him in 8th in the NFL with WRs and TEs with over 50 catches.  What I knew about him coming into Buffalo was he was blazing fast and that was confirmed, what I didn’t know and what he opened my eyes up to is how complete of a WR he is.  His route running is exceptional as well he always seemed to me that he was open, he easily would find holes in Zones, and in Man coverage he was always gaining separation out of his breaks as well.  This was a good signing from Buffalo and see why they also tried to sign him last year. 

 

 

 

Beasley also had a respectable 1st down conversion of 55.2% of his catches resulting in First down.  What I noticed about him, is he is better against man than he is against a zone.  I think the reason that is the way he runs routes and the crispness off then he gets immediate separation out of breaks.  Against a zone it is more of a feel to find the soft-spot or the seam in the zone.  My Cowboy friends told me that if he gets bracketed it can take him out of games, and I think that was seen as well.  Get another legit threat at WR or TE and it becomes much harder to do that too him.

 

 

 

The organizational depth in this group is atrocious.  There are really only 2 NFL caliber WRs on this roster and needs infusion of talent. So, I can see another offseason like last with going into the position multiple times, maybe a couple lower tier WRs via UFA and using a 1st or 2nd in the draft, or even a couple of draft picks.  How this position group gets addressed this offseason will be interesting.      

 

 

 

Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB):

 

OBJ – really is the only one I have heard so far as possibly being available this offseason.

 

 

 

UFAs Possible

 

Tier 1

 

AJ Green

 

Amari Cooper

 

Larry Fitzgerald

 

Emmanuel Sanders

 

Robbie Anderson (I wont downgrade him because of his off-field stuff)

 

 

 

Tier 2

 

Randall Cobb

 

Zach Pascal (EFRA) - meaning he 99.99999999999999999% is staying in Indy

Nelson Agholor

 

Breshad Perriman

 

Demarcus Robinson

 

Philip Dorsett

 

 

 

Draft (adding size here because I know people want to know that when talking WR)

 

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

 

Outside:

Jerry Jeudy (6’1, 192) (Alabama)

 

CeeDee Lamb (6’2 189) (Oklahoma)

 

Tee Higgins (6’4 200) (Clemson)

 

Laviska Shenault Jr. (6’2 220) (Colorado)

 

Henry Ruggs III (6’0 183) (Alabama)

 

Tyler Johnson (6’2 200) (Minnesota)

 

Justin Jefferson (6’2 185) (LSU)

 

Michael Pittman Jr. (6’4 223) (USC)

 

 

 

Slot:

 

Jalen Reagor (5’11 195) (TCU)

 

KJ Hamler (5’9 174) (Penn ST)

 

Aaron Fuller (5’11 186) (Washington)

 

 

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

 

Outside:

 

Collin Johnson (6’6 220) (Texas)

 

Brandon Aiyuk (6’0 208) (Az ST)

 

Donovan People-Jones (6’2 208) (Michigan)

 

 

 

Slot:

 

None

 

 

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

 

Outside:

 

John Hightower (6’2 184) (Boise State)

 

KJ Hill (6’0 195) (Ohio St)

 

Antonio Gandy-Golden (6’4 216) (Liberty)

 

Chase Claypool (6’4 227) (ND)

 

Gabriel Davis (6’3 212) (UCF)

 

Denzel Mims (6’3 197) (Baylor)

 

Quinten Cephus (6’1 207) (Wisconsin)

 

Isaiah Hodgins (6’4 209) (Oregon State)

 

Bryan Edwards (6’3 215) (South Carolina)

 

 

 

Slot:

 

Devin Duvernay (5’11 186) (Texas)

 

James Poche (5’11 190) (SMU)

 

 

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

 

 

This position group needs work with right now only two legit NFL receivers on the roster.  Before I start with what I would do let me address what this would turn into.  AJ Green if I can get him to accept a Prove it Deal a 1-year 12M with little GTD I would.  Or I would also offer about what his value will be (with INJ and age) 2-year 19M with 9M GTD, 9.5M AVV.  But I don’t think he would accept that.  Now what I would like Bills to look at.

 

 

 

Go after a Tier 2 WR in UFA.  My Choice will be Breshard Perriman I don’t think Tampa is in a position to sign him.  And I think a Cole Beasley Contract is acceptable and will get it done 4 years 29M, 12 GTD with a 7.25M AVV and an easy out after the first year.  That will give you the same Deep speed as Foster and allows for the Rookie not to have to come right in and excel.  He really came on late in the year with Tampa.  That give me at last 3 real NFL WRs on the roster before the draft. 

 

 

 

In the draft I would take 2.  One early and one late.  My Early target right now is Laviska Shenault.  Reason why is he has the skill set right now we are filling with players.  Big and Powerful (Duke Williams). Plenty of Speed (will time in 4.4s or lower, Robert Foster) and can run jet sweeps, out of backfield, QB the WC similar to McKenzie).  He also has a good catch radius and can high point balls.

 

 

 

In Later round get be the Big TGT for competition with Duke Williams so like a Hodgins, Claypool, Mims.

 

 

 

This is the position group I would like addressed in the first round.  You Can see in round 3-5 the depth thins out in the outside WR group, so a lot of those Tier 3 guys are going to be over drafted.  Yes it is a deep draft like everyone is saying but that depth I fully anticipate will get gone fast, and if we wait until the second round (where we are picking we are going to miss out)

 

 

No way I pay 12 million for a guy in Green who has played 1 game since October of 2018 due to the SAME foot injury reoccurring.  People need to stop looking at players with these type of injuries at the same player they were before it. They aren't.  The dude was 29 when the injury happened, he is now 31. Not like he is getting any younger and you will always be wondering if the injury is going to re-occur.  I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole and the Bills would be foolish to invest that type of money into a player with this injury history.

 

Edited January 13, 2020 by matter2003

[MAJBobby]

Just now, matter2003 said:

 

No way I pay 12 million for a guy in Green who has played 1 game since October of 2018 due to the SAME foot injury reoccurring.  People need to stop looking at players with these type of injuries at the same player they were before it. They aren't.  The dude was 29 when the injury happened, he is now 31. Not like he is getting any younger and you will always be wondering if the injury is going to re-occur.  I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole and the Bills would be foolish to invest that type of money into a player with this injury history.

 

12M with little GTD I would.  Meaning can walk away very easy, make it incentive based.  

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

12M with little GTD I would.  Meaning can walk away very easy, make it incentive based.  

 

I guess if we are talking about maybe $1 million guaranteed and the rest incentives then Sure, but if we are giving him a fully guaranteed contract, no way. Additionally, if he gets injured and lands on IR, his contract becomes fully guaranteed, so that is another risk...you spent the money for an oft injured player and then he goes on IR and the money is committed now.

Edited January 13, 2020 by matter2003

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

I guess if we are talking about maybe $1 million guaranteed and the rest incentives then Sure, but if we are giving him a fully guaranteed contract, no way. Additionally, if he gets injured and lands on IR, his contract becomes fully guaranteed, so that is another risk...you spent the money for an oft injured player and then he goes on IR and the money is committed now.

Only does IF after season starts and he was on the roster week 1, other than that Injury Settlements will occur

[colin]

sick work MAJB!

 

given that bean was involved in AB and OBJ trade talks, i think it's clear he knows he needs a monster WR, and is willing to pay.

 

if green or cooper are available to us, i think he's 100% in the running.

 

i also think we can two or three of

top flight WR

sick TE (hoops)

top flight DE

solid/sick RT

 

in free agency, or get a top one of one of them, and decent upgrade in the other three.  

 

we could do this by front loading contracts by having first year salary guaranteed so it hits now while we have lots of cap room, clearing up room later for us to sign Tre, milano, dawkins, and then later on Edmunds and allen.

 

i could see bean trading up to get the WR he really wants (or perhaps DE, but i don't think there are any who would be available) in the draft, but im always concerned about a WR coming in and making an impact as a rookie, and that's the single position which would change our team the most.  RB and CB tend to be good out the box.

[Solomon Grundy]

5 hours ago, Ayjent said:

For those of you wanting some video of the prospects - I like these every snap videos because you can see a couple of things that the highlights won't show you - effort on every down, blocking, how they get off the LOS, the variety of places they would line up, and how teams would play against them.  I tried to put the games against the best teams they faced if it was available for realistic targets the Bills may have the chance to get if they stay put at 22 or lower rounds.

 

Tee Higgins vs South Carolina (good Defense, two nice TD catches)

Justin Jefferson vs Auburn (not going to make you a big fan of him - some inconsistent effort IMO and I like Jefferson - but the more I watch these game snap videos the less I like Jefferson and the more I like other players)

Michael Pittman Jr vs Utah (very good game for Pittman, also notice the effort on blocking - springs a TD run and several other solid efforts lead to good runs - I really like him for the Bills, his all around game and ability to adjust to throws not on target, run after catch, and blocking) -

Chase Claypool vs Georgia (nice catches at the end, but I see why he isn't in the Day 1 or 2 conversation, struggles getting off press for a big guy, not a great receiver in traffic)

Gabriel Davis vs Pitt (good size, sometimes inconsistent effort, but leading AAC receiver and ability to go after the ball)

Van Jefferson vs LSU (hard to assess Jefferson's career, played with subpar QB, but he plays a good deal against Stingley who is one of the best CBs in the country)

Freddie Swain vs Georgia (late round to UDFA slot receiver - has good speed and runs good routes, pretty decent hands as well)

Joe Reed vs FSU (late round to UDFA - very good kick returner, good size, speed and hands - a guy that could easily be a guy that could take over for both Roberts' and McKenzie's roles)

 

 

Ideally, I really like Pittman Jr and Reed - two tough WRs that are good blockers, physical, and have good body control.  I also like bringing in Swain for a back up slot WR if he is an UDFA.  Maybe these aren't elite players, but they are guys that will bring effort and skills that the Bills are a little short on.

Shenault has all of these guys attributes in one package 

Edited January 13, 2020 by the skycap

[Ayjent]

14 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Shenault has all of these guys attributes in one package 

I don't know.  I can't say I watched him much during the year, and it's one of those guys like Blaine Gabbert where you pay attention to college football all year and you watch a lot of games and then the draft comes around and some guy that made very little noise during the season is rated higher than guys that you saw balling out all year - and not for a lack of exposure being in a Power 5 conference.

 

I just watched a couple of games with all of his snaps.  Can't say I see what the fuss is from what I've watched.  He's got speed and a good build, pretty good route runner too.  Not much of a blocker, not really good at judging balls and adjusting to off target throws, and certainly not someone who makes contested catches, but I've got to watch more so I'll reserve full judgment.

 

[Putin]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

I guess if we are talking about maybe $1 million guaranteed and the rest incentives then Sure, but if we are giving him a fully guaranteed contract, no way. Additionally, if he gets injured and lands on IR, his contract becomes fully guaranteed, so that is another risk...you spent the money for an oft injured player and then he goes on IR and the money is committed now.

So what is your solution? And BTW injuries happen we took a gamble and  made him the highest paid Center in the NFL who is potentially one more concussion away from retirement , me personally I'm all about the draft if we have to move up to get our future #1 WR I'm ALL FOR IT , but I would love having EJ Green here for couple of years until the rookie develops and can take over , and IMO can you really find a better guy for  your rookie can learn from the Green ? 

Lets not forget this is year 3 for Josh we need to make sure he has EVERYTHING to take another step forward , because this time there will be no more excuses this offense has to get to the middle of the pack if we want to contend for the division , we must score more points we can not expect our defense to keep opponents under 20 points every game , 

 

Edited January 13, 2020 by Putin

[ngbills]

Without WR help and/or TE help its hard to imagine this offense drastically improving. Just look at the Super Bowl favorites: KC - Solid WR's and Kelce or SF - Solid WR's and Kittle.

 

 

[Ayjent]

3 hours ago, Putin said:

So what is your solution? And BTW injuries happen we took a gamble and  made him the highest paid Center in the NFL who is potentially one more concussion away from retirement , me personally I'm all about the draft if we have to move up to get our future #1 WR I'm ALL FOR IT , but I would love having EJ Green here for couple of years until the rookie develops and can take over , and IMO can you really find a better guy for  your rookie can learn from the Green ? 

Lets not forget this is year 3 for Josh we need to make sure he has EVERYTHING to take another step forward , because this time there will be no more excuses this offense has to get to the middle of the pack if we want to contend for the division , we must score more points we can not expect our defense to keep opponents under 20 points every game , 

 

Yes, this Offense needs to get better, but I think a lot of people are lukewarm on Green because of his age, how little he has played recently and how much it would likely cost.  If we are talking a guy that comes in as a complimentary receiver Green might be a good fit, but he isn't likely to be a guy you would count on for 1200 yds as a WR1 no matter what team you are. He also doesn't have that reputation as a team guy that teaches - he may be, but I've never heard that and usually you would hear about that after a season where he was sidelined.  The Bills can be more selective and I think they want a guy that can come in for a longer stint than Green and build a relationship with Josh.  Maybe Perriman is the guy, but I'm wondering whether the Bucs might be willing to deal Evans, especially if they need ammo to move up and get their guy at QB.  A lot of people are thinking they will go with the Oregon QB, Herbert, but they may want to make a run at another QB - Licht is a terrible GM, but he knows the WR position and he'll be able to spot another one in this draft.  They have so many good receivers and I'm not sure that they aren't going to with Godwin as their No. 1 as they try to find a new option at QB.  The Jameis Winston era has come to a close based off of Arians' comment and they may be looking to put money into shoring up their D and OL.

[Putin]

2 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

Yes, this Offense needs to get better, but I think a lot of people are lukewarm on Green because of his age, how little he has played recently and how much it would likely cost.  If we are talking a guy that comes in as a complimentary receiver Green might be a good fit, but he isn't likely to be a guy you would count on for 1200 yds as a WR1 no matter what team you are. He also doesn't have that reputation as a team guy that teaches - he may be, but I've never heard that and usually you would hear about that after a season where he was sidelined.  The Bills can be more selective and I think they want a guy that can come in for a longer stint than Green and build a relationship with Josh.  Maybe Perriman is the guy, but I'm wondering whether the Bucs might be willing to deal Evans, especially if they need ammo to move up and get their guy at QB.  A lot of people are thinking they will go with the Oregon QB, Herbert, but they may want to make a run at another QB - Licht is a terrible GM, but he knows the WR position and he'll be able to spot another one in this draft.  They have so many good receivers and I'm not sure that they aren't going to with Godwin as their No. 1 as they try to find a new option at QB.  The Jameis Winston era has come to a close based off of Arians' comment and they may be looking to put money into shoring up their D and OL.

Evens ( IMO ) would definitely be a top accusation if we were some how able to pull that of , 

[billsfan89]

I think Cooper is a good player who would help the offense. But I think he is a bit too inconsistent (Has a case of the dropsies now and again along with disappearing in certain games) to justify his expected large contract (I would say he gets 17-18 million aav.) I think AJ Green is hurt too much recently, I would love to take him on a one year prove it deal (even if it is a 14 million dollar deal) but I think he is going to want to get a multi-year deal which he might get. Emmanuel Sanders isn't the type of WR the team needs and is a bit older. Larry Fitz I don't see playing outside of Arizona. 

 

As far as guys like Robby Anderson and Perriman I would love them both on a one year deal for 10ish million but I think both want that big multi-year contract. I think in the end the Bills are probably going to address WR in round 1 unless a trade that is advantageous comes along. I just don't see the team dipping into a big acquisition for Cooper or being able to get a bridge deal with any of the vets. 

[Putin]

12 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I think Cooper is a good player who would help the offense. But I think he is a bit too inconsistent (Has a case of the dropsies now and again along with disappearing in certain games) to justify his expected large contract (I would say he gets 17-18 million aav.) I think AJ Green is hurt too much recently, I would love to take him on a one year prove it deal (even if it is a 14 million dollar deal) but I think he is going to want to get a multi-year deal which he might get. Emmanuel Sanders isn't the type of WR the team needs and is a bit older. Larry Fitz I don't see playing outside of Arizona. 

 

As far as guys like Robby Anderson and Perriman I would love them both on a one year deal for 10ish million but I think both want that big multi-year contract. I think in the end the Bills are probably going to address WR in round 1 unless a trade that is advantageous comes along. I just don't see the team dipping into a big acquisition for Cooper or being able to get a bridge deal with any of the vets. 

I don’t think we can count on a rookie to come in and take a #1 WR spot , I agree with you we should use our 1st round pick on a WR like I said before even if we have to move few spots , but I still think we need a proven vet who can come in and be a legitimate # 1 WR that we desperately NEED , even if it’s only for a year or two and don’t forget we were very lucky to go through a whole year without an injury (IMO) we have to add another WR a #3 type  unless of course Duke can show some more improvement in the TC and the preseason... 

Edited January 14, 2020 by Putin

[CEN-CAL17]

If you’re considering Tier 2, rounds 3-5.... Move up Proche, Mims and Bryan Edwards!!!

 

Also add to the Tier 2 list, Omar Bayless WR Arkansas St.... how that dude is not on your post is beyond me. YouTube his documentary, total McD guy, mature and beat all odds!

 

Also, move Aiyuk up to Tier 1.... he’s gonna be a top 60 pick.... some would argue top 5 WRs in this years Draft. I think he goes between Pick 40-50.

Edited January 14, 2020 by CEN-CAL17

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Putin said:

I don’t think we can count on a rookie to come in and take a #1 WR spot , I agree with you we should use our 1st round pick on a WR like I said before even if we have to move few spots , but I still think we need a proven vet who can come in and be a legitimate # 1 WR that we desperately NEED , even if it’s only for a year or two and don’t forget we were very lucky to go through a whole year without an injury (IMO) we have to add another WR a #3 type  unless of course Duke can show some more improvement in the TC and the preseason... 

 

The catch 22 is outside of Cooper (who will come at an insane cost) what vet on the market can come in and fill that need and be healthy? I agree that it would be optimal to get a WR1 who is a vet as opposed to counting on a rookie but is Robby Anderson that much better than a first round pick?

 

I like the depth argument better but I just don't see what reciever on the market makes sense for the Bills.

[njbuff]

 

[Ayjent]

34 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

That’s an impressive game. Watched a little of him but didn’t see this game. 

[CSBill]

On 1/10/2020 at 3:26 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I'd be OK with the one year AJ Green prove it deal.  But is risky to the Bills if he can't play much, then we're back in the same spot as this past season. I also agree with the tier II WR, then only other tier I I'd consider would be Robby Anderson only because I don't think he'll be obscenely expensive. 

 

I  wouldn't draft a WR in round 1, I'd prefer to wait to round 2 or even 3.  My reasoning is I'd prefer to see a pas rusher in the first round as harder to find them in FA than WR  If they want to take a second one late would be OK with that too.

 

Looking at the numbers, you have Brown, Beasly and Roberts returning.  Signing a FA and draft one, you're up to five. That leaves at most one slot left assuming they went with six which wasn't the case this past year.  That means Foster, McKenzie, and Duke are battling for maybe one spot.  Of the three I'd give the edge to McKenzie as they like him for the gimmick plays he brings and his ST play.

 

If we sign a FA, like Green, or any of the tier 2 guys MAJ Bobby identifies (or someone in a trade), we still need to draft a WR high. The FA gives the draftee time to develop, and takes the pressure off of him having to contribute in a big way early. I would definitely take Green on a one yr prove-it deal, and a corollary move of a top of the draft guy.

Edited January 14, 2020 by CSBill

[Big Turk]

15 hours ago, Putin said:

So what is your solution? And BTW injuries happen we took a gamble and  made him the highest paid Center in the NFL who is potentially one more concussion away from retirement , me personally I'm all about the draft if we have to move up to get our future #1 WR I'm ALL FOR IT , but I would love having EJ Green here for couple of years until the rookie develops and can take over , and IMO can you really find a better guy for  your rookie can learn from the Green ? 

Lets not forget this is year 3 for Josh we need to make sure he has EVERYTHING to take another step forward , because this time there will be no more excuses this offense has to get to the middle of the pack if we want to contend for the division , we must score more points we can not expect our defense to keep opponents under 20 points every game , 

 

 

Draft a rookie. Pretty sure he could learn just fine from Brown and Beasley.

 

I'm not sure what people's obsession is with guys on the wrong side of 30 who have played 1 game in 2 years and who have a very high likelihood of having a chronic injury with multiple reoccurrences over that period of time after resting for a long period of time and having multiple surgeries.

 

Yes he was a very good player. He ain't that player anymore and never will be again. Move on. Stop living in the past. The NFL is about the future and Green's future is not very great.

Edited January 14, 2020 by matter2003

[Royale with Cheese]

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