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MAJBobby

My Off-Season Primer: Position Group: WR

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***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  wit this I am wrapping up Offense and Special Teams and I will be on to the Defense starting next week.  Hope you enjoy the read.   ***NOTE*** Please do not turn this into an AJ Green Thread.

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Running Backs

Tight Ends

Offensive Line

Specialists

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 6 players 19.372M Cap (ranked 15th in league)

John Brown (UFA 2022) – Saves 6.518M against cap if Cut

Cole Beasley (UFA 2023) – Saves 2.568M against cap if Cut

Andre Roberts (UFA 2021) – Saves 1.5M against cap if Cut

Duke Williams (EFRA 2021) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut

Nick Easley (signed futures deal) -

Ray-Ray McCloud (signed futures deal)

 

Expiring Contracts:

Isaiah McKenzie (25 yrs old) (RFA) (600K AVV)

Robert Foster (26 yrs old) (EFRA) (525K AVV)

 

My Take:

 

First, I will address the expiring contracts. They really are not expiring contracts because McKenzie will get the Original Tender and be back, I don’t think Bills need to go anything higher than the original tender to keep him.  Foster will get his EFRA tender and be back. These are both players that need to be replaced but will be back just because of their contract status of both being very cheap to bring back.  I will never really understand what happened with Foster this year, compared to last year, it looked like he was poised to break out and be a NO1 WR, he never did, he has had motivation issues in the past did that catch back up with him?  But the reality is Duke Williams brings more to this offense and the numbers show that out as well.  

 

Isaiah McKenzie– 39 TGTs, 254 yards 1 TD, Catch Rate 69% and a DVOA -20.8%,

Robert Foster– 18 TGTs, 64 yards, 0 TDs, Catch Rate 17% 2 DPI Drawn 58 yards and a DVOA -42.0%

Duke Williams – 19 TGTs, 166 yards, 1 TD, Catch Rate 63% and a DVOA +2.8%

 

Now to the other WRs (not Roberts he is a Return Man not a WR).  Brown and Beasley.  Both have been great additions as well but looking at the dead money on these guys knowing they were JUST SIGNED I have to tip my hat to Beane.  And thing point I am going to bold here but you can look at all the UFAs Beane as signed in my other position groups they are all essentially on year deals with easy outs.  This is amazing cap management and solidifies to me that they can go get WHOEVER they want and not hurt their cap long term because he has shown a capability to craft cap friendly early outs.  So not back on task.

 

John Brown – 115 TGTs, 1060 yards, 6 TDs, Catch Rate 63%, 4 Drops (T19th in NFL) and a DVOA +11.1% (Ranks 22nd in NFL)

Cole Beasley – 105 TGTs, 778 yards, 6 TDs, Catch Rate 64%, 5 Drops (T10th in NFL), drew 1 DPI for 26 yards and a DVOA of +2.5 (Ranks 39th in NFL)

 

I probably am going to get fragged for this, but John Brown is an excellent WR2 not a WR1.  But that being said, I do like John Brown at a top end WR1B or WR2.  I think the worst play from him that I saw was the failed toe tap in the WC game, I know he logged 4 drops, but I don’t remember one really hurting a drive IE Big spot like I can with Knox’s and Beasley drops.  But either way another thing I do like that Brown gave is that 73.6% of his catches resulted in a first down. Which ranks him in 8th in the NFL with WRs and TEs with over 50 catches.  What I knew about him coming into Buffalo was he was blazing fast and that was confirmed, what I didn’t know and what he opened my eyes up to is how complete of a WR he is.  His route running is exceptional as well he always seemed to me that he was open, he easily would find holes in Zones, and in Man coverage he was always gaining separation out of his breaks as well.  This was a good signing from Buffalo and see why they also tried to sign him last year. 

 

Beasley also had a respectable 1st down conversion of 55.2% of his catches resulting in First down.  What I noticed about him, is he is better against man than he is against a zone.  I think the reason that is the way he runs routes and the crispness off then he gets immediate separation out of breaks.  Against a zone it is more of a feel to find the soft-spot or the seam in the zone.  My Cowboy friends told me that if he gets bracketed it can take him out of games, and I think that was seen as well.  Get another legit threat at WR or TE and it becomes much harder to do that too him.

 

The organizational depth in this group is atrocious.  There are really only 2 NFL caliber WRs on this roster and needs infusion of talent. So, I can see another offseason like last with going into the position multiple times, maybe a couple lower tier WRs via UFA and using a 1st or 2nd in the draft, or even a couple of draft picks.  How this position group gets addressed this offseason will be interesting.      

 

Possible Trade TGTs (hard to gauge until after SB):

OBJ – really is the only one I have heard so far as possibly being available this offseason.

 

UFAs Possible

Tier 1

AJ Green

Amari Cooper

Larry Fitzgerald

Emmanuel Sanders

Robbie Anderson (I wont downgrade him because of his off-field stuff)

 

Tier 2

Randall Cobb

Zach Pascal (EFRA) - meaning he 99.99999999999999999% is staying in Indy

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Demarcus Robinson

Philip Dorsett

 

Draft (adding size here because I know people want to know that when talking WR)

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

Outside:

Jerry Jeudy (6’1, 192) (Alabama)

CeeDee Lamb (6’2 189) (Oklahoma)

Tee Higgins (6’4 200) (Clemson)

Laviska Shenault Jr. (6’2 220) (Colorado)

Henry Ruggs III (6’0 183) (Alabama)

Tyler Johnson (6’2 200) (Minnesota)

Justin Jefferson (6’2 185) (LSU)

Michael Pittman Jr. (6’4 223) (USC)

 

Slot:

Jalen Reagor (5’11 195) (TCU)

KJ Hamler (5’9 174) (Penn ST)

Aaron Fuller (5’11 186) (Washington)

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

Outside:

Collin Johnson (6’6 220) (Texas)

Brandon Aiyuk (6’0 208) (Az ST)

Donovan People-Jones (6’2 208) (Michigan)

 

Slot:

None

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

Outside:

John Hightower (6’2 184) (Boise State)

KJ Hill (6’0 195) (Ohio St)

Antonio Gandy-Golden (6’4 216) (Liberty)

Chase Claypool (6’4 227) (ND)

Gabriel Davis (6’3 212) (UCF)

Denzel Mims (6’3 197) (Baylor)

Quinten Cephus (6’1 207) (Wisconsin)

Isaiah Hodgins (6’4 209) (Oregon State)

Bryan Edwards (6’3 215) (South Carolina)

 

Slot:

Devin Duvernay (5’11 186) (Texas)

James Poche (5’11 190) (SMU)

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

This position group needs work with right now only two legit NFL receivers on the roster.  Before I start with what I would do let me address what this would turn into.  AJ Green if I can get him to accept a Prove it Deal a 1-year 12M with little GTD I would.  Or I would also offer about what his value will be (with INJ and age) 2-year 19M with 9M GTD, 9.5M AVV.  But I don’t think he would accept that.  Now what I would like Bills to look at.

 

Go after a Tier 2 WR in UFA.  My Choice will be Breshard Perriman I don’t think Tampa is in a position to sign him.  And I think a Cole Beasley Contract is acceptable and will get it done 4 years 29M, 12 GTD with a 7.25M AVV and an easy out after the first year.  That will give you the same Deep speed as Foster and allows for the Rookie not to have to come right in and excel.  He really came on late in the year with Tampa.  That give me at last 3 real NFL WRs on the roster before the draft. 

 

In the draft I would take 2.  One early and one late.  My Early target right now is Laviska Shenault.  Reason why is he has the skill set right now we are filling with players.  Big and Powerful (Duke Williams). Plenty of Speed (will time in 4.4s or lower, Robert Foster) and can run jet sweeps, out of backfield, QB the WC similar to McKenzie).  He also has a good catch radius and can high point balls.

 

In Later round get be the Big TGT for competition with Duke Williams so like a Hodgins, Claypool, Mims.

 

This is the position group I would like addressed in the first round.  You Can see in round 3-5 the depth thins out in the outside WR group, so a lot of those Tier 3 guys are going to be over drafted.  Yes it is a deep draft like everyone is saying but that depth I fully anticipate will get gone fast, and if we wait until the second round (where we are picking we are going to miss out)

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If you watch Beanes end of season PC, he definitely did not give the impression that he will be pursuing a Tier 1 FA WR, and really wont be going after any Tier FA players and will be more focused on depth and player retention.  

 

I think someone in that Tier 2 group is more likely, if any at all.  

 

I do expect him to take a WR early in first 2 rounds, and I think Shenault is going to be the guy most commonly mocked to us given his skill set and our draft spot.  The one thing I fear about him is that he is the kind of guy physically that could really raise his draft stock at the combine and may go earlier than some see him going right now over some of the other stud prospects.  That being said, if he does, that means one of the other ones will be sliding down which still lands a stud prospect (assuming we go WR in the first).  

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10 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

I probably am going to get fragged for this, but John Brown is an excellent WR2 not a WR1.  But that being said, I do like John Brown at a top end WR1B or WR2. 

 

I don't think you'll get much argument on this board on that one.  

 

As far as early round targets, I like Jefferson, but that is just a personal preference thing.  I have not watched Shenault play, but there seems to be a lot of buzz for him around here, so I am looking forward to seeing more.

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Fantastic write up as usual. 
I like the idea Stefon Diggs could be made available (and also Everson Griffin) Minnesota is already 4 million OVER the cap and figured out they are a running team this year lol. He could be available. 
 

My other simplified take is WR1 and WR2 mean nothing anymore. You just need weapons who can contribute. As long as we pair someone with brown who makes plays we are good to go. 
Perriman will be a popular name and it’ll be interesting if Tampa tries to keep him. I don’t think his one year was enough for the contract he’s gonna get but what do I know 😂

 

Our biggest problem was lining up McKenzie and Roberts as receivers for so many snaps and they weren’t ever targeted or open mostly. Yeah duke looked good and has some skill, but they just need that one outside guy. A Kenny Golloday type to pair with brown. 
Two more weapons in our pass game rather it’s free agents or rookies or a mix of both will really open things up because defenses can’t just stop our “big 3” of smoke Beasley and Knox. Outside of them we didn’t really try and feature anyone else in the pass game. 
Kansas City runs the smurf game too outside of Kelce and they have no issues getting open and spreading defenses out. We just don’t have enough weapons to do that with smaller receivers like they do 

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On your list of draftable players, I think you should include Omar Bayless.  

 

https://youtu.be/APtPJSWlEKg

 

He has a hell of a chip on his shoulders as well

 

https://www.wdam.com/2019/12/21/tragedy-drives-laurel-native-omar-bayless-stunning-senior-season/

 

Wanted to add this for character reference

 

 

Edited by Carbonpoke
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Just now, Carbonpoke said:

On your list of draftable players, I think you should include Omar Bayless.  

 

https://youtu.be/APtPJSWlEKg

 

He has a hell of a chip on his shoulders as well

 

https://www.wdam.com/2019/12/21/tragedy-drives-laurel-native-omar-bayless-stunning-senior-season/

Will look into him more.

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Nice writeup.  I agree about Brown, as well as, strategy of signing a proven WR in FA and drafting a WR in first round.

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I'd be OK with the one year AJ Green prove it deal.  But is risky to the Bills if he can't play much, then we're back in the same spot as this past season. I also agree with the tier II WR, then only other tier I I'd consider would be Robby Anderson only because I don't think he'll be obscenely expensive. 

 

I  wouldn't draft a WR in round 1, I'd prefer to wait to round 2 or even 3.  My reasoning is I'd prefer to see a pas rusher in the first round as harder to find them in FA than WR  If they want to take a second one late would be OK with that too.

 

Looking at the numbers, you have Brown, Beasly and Roberts returning.  Signing a FA and draft one, you're up to five. That leaves at most one slot left assuming they went with six which wasn't the case this past year.  That means Foster, McKenzie, and Duke are battling for maybe one spot.  Of the three I'd give the edge to McKenzie as they like him for the gimmick plays he brings and his ST play.

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Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I'd be OK with the one year AJ Green prove it deal.  But is risky to the Bills if he can't play much, then we're back in the same spot as this past season. I also agree with the tier II WR, then only other tier I I'd consider would be Robby Anderson only because I don't think he'll be obscenely expensive. 

 

I  wouldn't draft a WR in round 1, I'd prefer to wait to round 2 or even 3.  My reasoning is I'd prefer to see a pas rusher in the first round as harder to find them in FA than WR  If they want to take a second one late would be OK with that too.

 

Looking at the numbers, you have Brown, Beasly and Roberts returning.  Signing a FA and draft one, you're up to five. That leaves at most one slot left assuming they went with six which wasn't the case this past year.  That means Foster, McKenzie, and Duke are battling for maybe one spot.  Of the three I'd give the edge to McKenzie as they like him for the gimmick plays he brings and his ST play.

 

Yep I would want McKenzie, Foster and Duke in a fight for the spot.  Obviously they are going to bring a lot more into camp, there will likely be 10-13 WRs in camp, but no Big signings a lot of 1 year deals later in UFA

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If we managed our cap, and kept all our picks, to go into next year without massive upgrades at WR, then that’s a massive fail.. and I don’t think our FO would fail like that...

 

I would expect us to be in on Cooper, or a trade for a WR1, if available OR take a 1st Round WR, at minimum. 
 

The play of our WRs in the Texans game was unacceptable for a team looking to compete for Championships. 
 

 

Edited by SCBills
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Maybe its just me but I don't want any of 1st tier WRs.

 

AJ Green- Always injured

 

Amari Cooper-  He quit on his team. 

 

Larry Fitzgerald- Too old to be a number 1

 

Emmanuel Sanders-Not really an upgrade over Smoke.

 

Just pick a big receiver in the 1st round. 

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1 minute ago, 17islongenough said:

Maybe its just me but I don't want any of 1st tier WRs.

 

AJ Green- Always injured

 

Amari Cooper-  He quit on his team. 

 

Larry Fitzgerald- Too old to be a number 1

 

Emmanuel Sanders-Not really an upgrade over Smoke.

 

Just pick a big receiver in the 1st round. 

I mostly agree. 
AJ Green can’t hurt us he’s not getting a long deal anywhere. If healthy even 10 games he’s a monster upgrade to the entire offense. 
 

Amari Cooper can dominate, but also is missing a chunk of games and is invisible in big games sometimes. 
 

Fitz will never leave Arizona. He’ll retire or go back there 

 

Sanders is intriguing, age vs injury vs contract probably means we won’t even check in on him 

 

It’s always a trend to see the top free agents drooled over and then the fun overreaction when they aren’t signed here 

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11 minutes ago, 17islongenough said:

Maybe its just me but I don't want any of 1st tier WRs.

 

AJ Green- Always injured

 

Amari Cooper-  He quit on his team. 

 

Larry Fitzgerald- Too old to be a number 1

 

Emmanuel Sanders-Not really an upgrade over Smoke.

 

Just pick a big receiver in the 1st round. 


no Emanuel Sanders is a significant upgrade over smoke 

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1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I'd be OK with the one year AJ Green prove it deal.  But is risky to the Bills if he can't play much, then we're back in the same spot as this past season. I also agree with the tier II WR, then only other tier I I'd consider would be Robby Anderson only because I don't think he'll be obscenely expensive. 

 

I  wouldn't draft a WR in round 1, I'd prefer to wait to round 2 or even 3.  My reasoning is I'd prefer to see a pas rusher in the first round as harder to find them in FA than WR  If they want to take a second one late would be OK with that too.

 

Looking at the numbers, you have Brown, Beasly and Roberts returning.  Signing a FA and draft one, you're up to five. That leaves at most one slot left assuming they went with six which wasn't the case this past year.  That means Foster, McKenzie, and Duke are battling for maybe one spot.  Of the three I'd give the edge to McKenzie as they like him for the gimmick plays he brings and his ST play.

There is no bonfire pass rusher in this draft with the exception of Chase Young

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56 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


no Emanuel Sanders is a significant upgrade over smoke 

If this was 2016 I would agree with you.  None of these receivers are worth overpaying for though. 

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1 hour ago, 17islongenough said:

Maybe its just me but I don't want any of 1st tier WRs.

 

AJ Green- Always injured

 

Amari Cooper-  He quit on his team. 

 

Larry Fitzgerald- Too old to be a number 1

 

Emmanuel Sanders-Not really an upgrade over Smoke.

 

Just pick a big receiver in the 1st round. 

I agree with everything you quoted except about AJ Green. He wasn't ALWAYS injured. I posted his injury history in another thread. He recently had an ankle injury. I don't know what Beane's plan is, but remember he rolled the dice on Kroft who was coming off a more serious injury than Green's. The only question is will he be tagged?

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2 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I agree with everything you quoted except about AJ Green. He wasn't ALWAYS injured. I posted his injury history in another thread. He recently had an ankle injury. I don't know what Beane's plan is, but remember he rolled the dice on Kroft who was coming off a more serious injury than Green's. The only question is will he be tagged?


well he has only played 9 games in two years. That is concerning 

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2 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

Maybe its just me but I don't want any of 1st tier WRs.

 

AJ Green- Always injured

 

Amari Cooper-  He quit on his team. 

 

Larry Fitzgerald- Too old to be a number 1

 

Emmanuel Sanders-Not really an upgrade over Smoke.

 

Just pick a big receiver in the 1st round. 

We have the money and I would take a stab.....I would just follow it up with a WR in the 1st round.   I want so many good WR's on this team getting so much separation Josh Allen is getting crit after every play that he didnt throw it to the MOST open guy.

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I fully expect us to have to trade up if we want Shenault.  He’s such an easy target for us.  If someone wants him, they know they’ll have to get ahead of us.  
 

I also think he’s the perfect fit in philly, who just so happens to pick one spot ahead of us.  Ugh.  Viska just seems like such the perfect fit and too good to be true him falling into our laps.  Gonna have to be aggressive.  But how aggressive and why not Lamb or Juedy if we wanna trade up?  
 

Beane has an interesting decision to make.  
 

i haven’t watched a enough tape on these kids yet, just a few highlights of each.  The guys id be happy with so far:  lamb, juedy, Shenault, Jefferson.  I haven’t seen much on Pittman so I can’t say for sure.  I think Higgins is good but I don’t like him or Riggs as much as the top 4.  Tyler johnson looks legit too.give me one of those guys.  Or K’Lavon Chaisson.  Love that guy 

 

edit:  Pittman looks to be quite the specimen. 

Edited by NewEra
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4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I fully expect us to have to trade up if we want Shenault.  He’s such an easy target for us.  If someone wants him, they know they’ll have to get ahead of us.  
 

I also think he’s the perfect fit in philly, who just so happens to pick one spot ahead of us.  Ugh.  Viska just seems like such the perfect fit and too good to be true him falling into our laps.  Gonna have to be aggressive.  But how aggressive and why not Lamb or Juedy if we wanna trade up?  
 

Beane has an interesting decision to make.  
 

i haven’t watched a enough tape on these kids yet, just a few highlights of each.  The guys id be happy with so far:  lamb, juedy, Shenault, Jefferson.  I haven’t seen much on Pittman so I can’t say for sure.  I think Higgins is good but I don’t like him or Riggs as much as the top 4.  Tyler johnson looks legit too.give me one of those guys.  Or K’Lavon Chaisson.  Love that guy 


I can say I have run easily over 100 mocks on the various Mock simulators. Anytime Shenault was not available for our pick the two situations you described happened. 
 

somone jumped us to late teens

or Philly took him right before us. 

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Pretty much agree with what you layed out, we need another wide out, a  #1 to be on the field pretty much every play with Brown and Beasley. We have to be able to stretch the defense across the field deep, we can’t do that in a serious way at present, from what I’ve read Beane has the situation in his sights, I’m confident this issue will be taken care of.

 

Go Bills!!!

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2 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


no Emanuel Sanders is a significant upgrade over smoke 

and would be a fine pairing.

 The possibility or Perriman gets me rather excited.
should be fun
No frag from me about Brown. he needs complimentary players and Allen needs to show them some offseason love.
lets do this

 

Very nice work Bobby 

TY : )

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43 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:


I can say I have run easily over 100 mocks on the various Mock simulators. Anytime Shenault was not available for our pick the two situations you described happened. 
 

somone jumped us to late teens

or Philly took him right before us. 

Yup.  Get ready for it.  Kid is dynamite and not gonna last til the 20s imo.   
 

another great breakdown Maj. Your breakdowns are the only threads I can tolerate since the loss.

 

 

pain

Edited by NewEra

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