Way too early 2020 season expectations

[Magox]

It's sort of like Mock draft 1.0.

 

There are many variables that we have to see how they shake out before we can give a much better idea of the win loss estimations.  

 

But for now:

 

I expect Devin Singletary to be used even more for receptions this year.

 

I expect that the Bills will add another upgrade at the WR spot.

 

I expect Knox to get better and become a good TE in this league and I expect Sweeney will replace Lee Smith.  I also expect Tyler Kroft to be used more.

 

I expect that the offensive line will have a second year together and will be better than they were this past year.

 

I expect Brown and Beasley to have more familiarity with Josh Allen and that his level of efficiency with them will improve.

 

I expect that the Bills will get another pass rusher and that the pass rush will be better than this past year.

 

I expect the Bills defense to remain top 5.

 

And most importantly, I expect  Josh Allen making strides once again and that he will be  around 61% completion with around 35 TD's between passes and runs.  

 

Bills go 11-5 next year and win the division.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Magox

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Z-Mann said:

 

So for teams under .500, you would improve them 50% to the mean of 8-8?  

No. If a team wins 6 this year, the best guess is that they’ll split the difference with .500

and win 7 next year. Again, that’s before rosters are settled, etc. While my prediction now would be that the Pats go 10-6 next year, if Brady leaves and Stidham is the QB, obviously that goes down. 

[Boatdrinks]

At minimum a playoff victory. Anything less is a step back. 

[wagon127]

10-6 again. There is no way the schedule could be easier, or even as easy as this year's schedule. We have enough cap space, to retain whoever we want to, and enough to add a couple more players. Focus on Wide Receiver and at least an offensive line men or two, and we can get the playoffs again. 

[Z-Mann]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

No. If a team wins 6 this year, the best guess is that they’ll split the difference with .500

and win 7 next year. Again, that’s before rosters are settled, etc. While my prediction now would be that the Pats go 10-6 next year, if Brady leaves and Stidham is the QB, obviously that goes down. 

 

Yea, sorry, that's what I meant - a 3 win team in 2019, dirty math, may get around 5-6 wins in 2020.  Make sense, good rule of thumb.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Z-Mann

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Z-Mann said:

 

Yea, sorry, that's what I meant - a 3 win team in 2019, dirty math. may get around 5-6 wins in 2020.  Make sense, good rule of thumb.

Thanks. And that’s exactly what it is - a quick rule of thumb. But I think it does give us a sense of where we and our competitors stand right now with respect to true talent level. For us, that’s a good team! Very few teams actually project as 11 wins or better. There’s just too much variability and luck involved. 

[Seasons1992]

Without catastrophic injuries, 10-6. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

It's pretty impressive when you think about this 2019 Bills team, I know a bunch of people say we had an easy schedule and on paper that's true but in reality we actually faced 6 teams that were in the top 10 (in total defense in 2019)and 2 of which we faced twice- Ravens, Patriots, Jets, Cowboys, Steelers and Eagles, we did have a 3-4 record but one of those were the last Jets game where we benched our starters. 

 

Everything about Allen progressed upward from his TD to INT ratio from last year, his completion % was better, he looks like he'll be our guy going forward, he still does some bone headed plays which I think may be instilled in him so we may have to take the good and the bad with him because it looks to me that he just can't break that whole "I have to win this all myself".We should have a bunch of many to better improve areas of need through FA and I have confidence GM Beane will do well in the draft covering the rest of our needs. The future looks really bright imo.

[Like A Mofo]

Way too early but I will also say 10-6. But it is going to be more difficult. I know a lot of you point to the schedule as the reason the Bills had a good record, but don't overlook the amazing clean bill of health the Bills as a team enjoyed in 2019.

 

Injuries hurt seasons more then soft schedules help a season.

 

Will the Bills be as fortunate in this regard in 2020? Time will tell.

[ngbills]

Anything worse than 11-5 will be a disappointment. 

 

 

 

 

[CountryCletus]

10-6.... we will go 4-2 in the Division, then beat the Chargers, Rams, Steelers, Cardinals, Broncos, Raiders... could pick up wins against the Titans and Seahawks, too- but we will inevitable lose a game or two we shouldn’t.... 

[SCBills]

41 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

Way too early but I will also say 10-6. But it is going to be more difficult. I know a lot of you point to the schedule as the reason the Bills had a good record, but don't overlook the amazing clean bill of health the Bills as a team enjoyed in 2019.

 

Injuries hurt seasons more then soft schedules help a season.

 

Will the Bills be as fortunate in this regard in 2020? Time will tell.

A lot has been made of our facilities and McDermott’s philosophy towards health.  
 

Of course you can’t prevent something like Harrison Phillips tearing an ACL, but I don’t think it’s just a coincidence that we stayed relatively healthy. 

[Ray Stonada]

My Prediction

 

12-4

 

Losses to San Francisco, KC, at Jets, and Titans

 

AFC East CHAMPS

 

Conference Championship against Baltimore... 50% chance we go to Super Bowl

[Rico]

I expect to be AFC East champions, and then take it from there.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Next year will be hard to predict, especially now. Will ride so much on Allen taking another step forward and roster additions/subtractions. 

 

I see 8 games we'll definitely be favored in. So 8-8 is a realistic choice as of today.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede

[snamsnoops]

We should win the division with or without Brady in NE..I still think the Jets are a mess, and Miami isn't much better. They don't have a QB and if Fitz is the starter, he screams of a .500 season. So, with next years schedule. We are probably looking at 9 to 11 wins as long as nothing catastrophic happens.. 

This being said I am guessing Vegas will have the Bills at 7.5 wins next season..

[dave mcbride]

I hate to say it, but the schedule is going to be brutal next season: Pittsburgh with presumably a real QB, TN, the AFC West, the NFC West, NE twice, and 4 games against improving Jets/Miami teams. The AFC West I think will be surprisingly tough - the Raiders are a young, talented team that improved this season, and Denver could easily have been 9-7 if not for a couple of horrific calls. It really comes down to whether Lock is good enough. The NFC West is brutal: AZ was playing everyone tough late this season, and can score. LA, SF, and Seattle are all deep and talented teams with good coaches. That's not to say that the Bills can't become the next SF-style team and start dominating even the good teams, but if that is to happen, Allen will have to become an elite player next year - a QB who can consistently lead the team to 28+ points.

[MAJBobby]

5 hours ago, Jasovon said:

I went into 2019 expected 8 wins, we did better than that which was awesome. It's obviously far too early but I'm interested what people on here expect in 2020 from this team.

 

For me, I expect 10 wins next year. I hope for more, but i expect us to win 10.

10 plus wins, Division and playoff wins. Anything ELSE IN YEAR 4 of this regime is a failure 

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

My Prediction

 

12-4

 

Losses to San Francisco, KC, at Jets, and Titans

 

AFC East CHAMPS

 

Conference Championship against Baltimore... 50% chance we go to Super Bowl

 

If the Bills go 12-4 with so many wins over quality teams they'd have to be one of the 3-4 teams most likely to win the Super Bowl.

 

They'll need another great draft, a solid group of free agents and need a big step forward from Cody Ford, Dawson Knox and Josh Allen. 

[Buffalo Boy]

11-5.

We will get another back who compliments Singletary. 
We will get two new pass catchers, including a bonafide number 1.

Daboll/McD will self scout the heck out of the Offensive play calling and get rid of some of the more glaring mis-calls.

JA will hit the long ball 33% better which will be a huge improvement.

The D will get 10 more takeaways over the course of the season.

We will win the AFC east.

We will be in the AFC championship game.

[thronethinker]

Division has to be won. The schedule is much tougher but that shouldn't matter for the division as every other team has it tough too. Division win and at least a home victory in Playoffs. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Win a playoff game. I don't care about the specifics otherwise. 

[ThurmasThoman]

I was talking about the schedule being brutal so long ago, I've moved past that and started to warm to the idea that the schedule is going to be easier than we think!

 

Lol!

 

Starting with the division contests:

• Miami looks to be a tough out next year, and they almost stole one from us this year. A split wouldn't be crazy. That''s 1 win
• The Jets are a pushover. I would expect a sweep there. Darnold isn't good. We contained him on the road, and our backups handled him at home. Allen wins that game (if it was meaningful) 10/10 times. That's 2 wins.
• I want to say we'll go 2-0 vs the Pats, but let's be realistic and say a split. If Brady leaves, it's good for us. If he stays, it's good for us. We could have beaten them both games. McDermott has had good efforts against that team. I know "moral" victories are a touchy subject here, but the Bills are absolutely a threat to New England, so let's say a split here.

However you choose to parse it out, 4-2 in the division seems well within reason. Now, looking at the AFC West:

• The Broncos (worse than us) had absolutely no life against us, their QB situation is bad, they (seemingly, apparently) hate playing for their coach, who they're keeping. This seems like a win, although it's in Mile High--not an easy road game.
• The Raiders were worse than us too, by a few games. Seems like an easy win, and it should be in Buffalo.
• The Chargers were terrible, they have an old qb, and are regressing.
• The Chiefs are the Chiefs, they're great. I'd be surprised if we beat them, but the game should be in Buffalo too (I think.

So looking at this division, 3 wins seems possible, but maybe 2 is realistic. Intraconference games next:

• The Titans are great, they look fantastic this year. Hard to see how we stop Henry, and Tanny is balling out. Maybe a loss. But maybe a win. They're not this years ravens, where they're absolutely dominating opponents week in and week out. Should be a 50-50 game.
• The Steelers are the opposite of that. Their QB play is less than settled. Even if Big Ben comes back, they don't scare me. They're a 50-50 game vs. us.

Intraconference wins has us somewhere around 8 to 9 wins, turning to the NFC portion of the schedule.

• The Rams are a team in decline, too much money tied up in guys that aren't trending in the right direction. Should be a win.
• The Cardinals were worse than us. If we're just going to assume they get better because their QB improves, I'm going to make the same assumption about us. Should be another win.
• The Hawks don't scare me. There's nothing they do better than any other team, they're just the NFC version of us, well rounded, well coached, 11 win squad. This is a 50/50 game.
• 49ers. The hardest game on the schedule. Should be a loss. Hope it's on the east coast. Likely will be in primetime. Gonna be a blast to watch.

So NFC looks like anywhere from 2-2 to 3-1.

 

Taking it all into account: If things go as bad as possible, it's a 9 win season.

If the bounces go in our favor, it's an 11 win season.

 

I think 11 wins gets the division, I think 9 gets a wild card again.

If someone put a gun to my head and made me guess, I would reckon we'll get the 4 seed and host a wild card game. I think Buf, Ten, Bal, KC win divisions, and wild cards are fought for between New England, Houston and Jax. 

 

BUT... let's get through free agency and revisit this. Then the draft. Then the schedule release. Then OTAs. Then Training camp. Then the preseason. Then roster cuts.

 

Josh Allen is 15-10 in games he starts and finishes, McD has us in the playoffs 2/3 years here, and we started more rookies than most teams last year--in a winning season! The roster is loaded with young talent, theirs cap space, and very little money tied up in bad contracts. Tons of room to sign impact guys.

Would not surprise me in the least if this team went 14-2 next year and won the Super Bowl. I think (finally) it's OK to have modest to high expectations for this team. 

Very exciting time to be a fan. 

[Victory Formation]

Super Bowl contention.

[Bing Bong]

Josh Allen wins MVP

[John from Riverside]

This all really depends on what the bills do in the offseason.....

 

If they aggressively address some positions and continue to add pieces of depth over the course of the team.....10 wins next year and this time a real shot at the AFC EAST

 

If they stand pat on what they got?   I dont know

[78thealltimegreat]

The goal to keep going is at least one playoff game in Orchard Park which means winning the division that is a very reasonable goal considering the Death Star in New England is finally starting to crack 

[Penfield45]

win the division

 

anything less is a total failure unless we have 11+ wins and somehow end up with a WC. Mcd has to finally learn how to beat NE. it will be his 4th year and the excuses are done. 

[Prickly Pete]

12-4