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Way too early 2020 season expectations


Jasovon

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The schedule looks very challenging.

 

Seattle, San Fran, KC, Rams, Chargers, Steelers, Titans plus our division games makes it look challenging.

 

Unlike this year when we faced a ton of terrible teams, we don't have very many cupcakes on the schedule.

 

With that said, another 10-6 season seems likely so long as the defense remains top 5 in scoring.

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30 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

So, you are confident that the Jets and Dolphins will improve; however, the Bills and Allen won't? 

 

Good question - for me, it's just a numbers thing.  The better you are, the harder it is to improve.  A team that won 3 games in 2019 and wins 7 in 2020...4 win and 57% improvement.  I'm not sure how realistic it is to expect that same kind of jump from a team that had say, 11 wins in 2019.

 

I also feel that, incrementally, Miami and the Jets just have more room to improve.  Bills were very healthy all year, while the Jets had all sorts of injuries.  If the Jets and Bills both get better by 20% but the Jets players stay healthy, they would make a bigger jump from 2019 to 2020.  Just as an example.

 

Realistically, there are just so many dang variables in football, a bounce here or there, a few untimely injuries, etc....can swing a team from 7 wins to 10 wins, and vice versa.

 

I do feel like the Bills should be a more talented team next year.

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My 2020 wish list  :

Better personnel on offense

Defense playing more aggressive

New punter

Coach McDermott showing some growth in both in game decision making and personnel choices

Continued progress from Josh Allen

10+ wins and a playoff win

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4 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I consider 2019 an 11-win season since we essentially forfeited the Jets finale. That said I think the 2020 Bills will take a small step back to 9 wins thanks to a brutal schedule.

 

They wont take a step back if Beane has a good offseason. We don't know how tough the schedule will be yet. Have to see what teams do in the draft and what they gain/lose in FA. Look at the AFC West KC will probably tough , but the Chargers weren't that good and look ready to move on from Rivers. The Raiders and Broncos are really nothing special to be honest. In the NFC West SF will also be tough. Seattle is good but beatable and they rely on RW to carry them now more so than in the past. The Rams could be tough. Will they look like the team from 2 years ago or will they struggle again like this past season. The Cards are OK but nothing the Bills should fear. If the Bills continue to build on what they have then they will be in good shape for 2020.

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37 minutes ago, teef said:

agree.  i expect/hope this team to be a more competitive version of who they were in 2019.

this seems to be the narrative for a few posters around here.  everyone gets better, but the bills stay the same or become worse.

right. hoping our 19 bills are closer to the 18 ravens as opposed to the 18 bears.

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23 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

 

Good question - for me, it's just a numbers thing.  The better you are, the harder it is to improve.  A team that won 3 games in 2019 and wins 7 in 2020...4 win and 57% improvement.  I'm not sure how realistic it is to expect that same kind of jump from a team that had say, 11 wins in 2019.

 

I also feel that, incrementally, Miami and the Jets just have more room to improve.  Bills were very healthy all year, while the Jets had all sorts of injuries.  If the Jets and Bills both get better by 20% but the Jets players stay healthy, they would make a bigger jump from 2019 to 2020.  Just as an example.

 

Realistically, there are just so many dang variables in football, a bounce here or there, a few untimely injuries, etc....can swing a team from 7 wins to 10 wins, and vice versa.

 

I do feel like the Bills should be a more talented team next year.


I put that we split with the Jets, but we’re basically a full year ahead of them in the build, where we started at almost identical spots.  
 

Their defense should be strong again with a healthy Moseley.   
 

On Offense, I expect them to build an OL, but they don’t exactly have the ammo to address all their needs, which are 4 OL, Pass Rusher, CB and WR.   They will still have some glaring weaknesses.  
 

 

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33 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I consider 2019 an 11-win season since we essentially forfeited the Jets finale. That said I think the 2020 Bills will take a small step back to 9 wins thanks to a brutal schedule.

 

I’m hoping our improvement offsets the difficulty of schedule. 

 

BUT, I think it’s great that other teams and fans are going to look at the Bills game on their schedule and think “Oh, %$@#! That’s gonna be a tough week!” It’s been a while since that was the case. 

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9 or 9.5 wins should be the over/under assuming no huge roster changes. It’s just a much tougher schedule. Folks are focused on the outside of the division opponents, but the Dolphins and Jets won’t be easy next year. 
My general Quick and Dirty rule (if your formula works better, please share it): take last season’s record and regress it 50% to the 8-8 mean. 

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Also want to add - there are some exit points between "success" and "failure".  For example, If they are on the cusp of the playoffs but don't make it, and Allen was hurt for 10 games, 4 of our starting OL went out, Singletary gets hurt, etc...I don't know if I would consider that a "failure".  

 

Assuming they stay relatively healthy next year and avoid injuries to multiple key players, I do feel like anything less than a playoff birth, even with a tougher schedule, would certainly be disappointing.  If that's the case, it could mean a variety of things, none of them necessary good...like Allen didn't play well, or our draft picks busted out, or we got out-coached in numerous games, or they weren't as good as we thought they were (due to strength of schedule), etc.  

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6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

9 or 9.5 wins should be the over/under assuming no huge roster changes. It’s just a much tougher schedule. Folks are focused on the outside of the division opponents, but the Dolphins and Jets won’t be easy next year. 
My general Quick and Dirty rule (if your formula works better, please share it): take last season’s record and regress it 50% to the 8-8 mean. 

 

So for teams under .500, you would improve them 50% to the mean of 8-8?  

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For me it’s 10 or more wins, and the AFCE crown,  will that actually happen...

 

Go Bills!!!

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3 minutes ago, Z-Mann said:

Also want to add - there are some exit points between "success" and "failure".  For example, If they are on the cusp of the playoffs but don't make it, and Allen was hurt for 10 games, 4 of our starting OL went out, Singletary gets hurt, etc...I don't know if I would consider that a "failure".  

 

Assuming they stay relatively healthy next year and avoid injuries to multiple key players, I do feel like anything less than a playoff birth, even with a tougher schedule, would certainly be disappointing.  If that's the case, it could mean a variety of things, none of them necessary good...like Allen didn't play well, or our draft picks busted out, or we got out-coached in numerous games, or they weren't as good as we thought they were (due to strength of schedule), etc.  

injuries would definitely be the wild card for next year.  this team was very lucky in that regard this year.

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