Smoke vs Hopkins stats this year

[Da webster guy]

D Hopkins targeted 150 times caught 104 balls    1,165 yards 7 TD's

John Brown targeted 115 times caught 72 balls   1,060 yards 6 TD's

 

Both dudes sat out week 17

 

Hop averaged just 7 yards per game more than Smoke , with one more touchdown on the year despite 35 more targets.

 

He makes amazing catches, but he's not significantly more productive than Brown this season. 

If you look at yards and/or points per target, Brown comes out quite a bit ahead.

 

I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins, despite all the press he's getting.

 

 

[StHustle]

1 minute ago, Da webster guy said:

he's not significantly more productive than Brown this season. 

 

Almost 50% more receptions is significantly more productive. It means more first downs and longer sustained drives. Keeping your defense off the field and the ball out of the hands of the opposing team. I was expecting Beas to be our 100 reception guy. Didnt work out that way. I still wanna see one more year with Beas before making my final assessment but with those drops I wouldnt be upset if he is replaced. 

Yeah but back you your point, Hopkins is an ELITE WR while Brown is simply very good. I lOVE Brown, dont get me wrong but he is nowhere near the talent level of Hopkins. Could you argue that with Watson, Brown's numbers would be much better? Yes, and you would likely be right. But the eye test means more to me than stats.

[Rc2catch]

28 minutes ago, StHustle said:

 

Almost 50% more receptions is significantly more productive. It means more first downs and longer sustained drives. Keeping your defense off the field and the ball out of the hands of the opposing team. I was expecting Beas to be our 100 reception guy. Didnt work out that way. I still wanna see one more year with Beas before making my final assessment but with those drops I wouldnt be upset if he is replaced. 

Yeah but back you your point, Hopkins is an ELITE WR while Brown is simply very good. I lOVE Brown, dont get me wrong but he is nowhere near the talent level of Hopkins. Could you argue that with Watson, Brown's numbers would be much better? Yes, and you would likely be right. But the eye test means more to me than stats.

Well said. I’d like to add Hopkins can literally put the team on his back at times and dominate defenses when they are behind and catch anything in his area. 
We don’t pepper brown with targets non stop but I don’t think he has that ability. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

22 minutes ago, StHustle said:

 

Almost 50% more receptions is significantly more productive. It means more first downs and longer sustained drives. Keeping your defense off the field and the ball out of the hands of the opposing team. I was expecting Beas to be our 100 reception guy. Didnt work out that way. I still wanna see one more year with Beas before making my final assessment but with those drops I wouldnt be upset if he is replaced. 

Yeah but back you your point, Hopkins is an ELITE WR while Brown is simply very good. I lOVE Brown, dont get me wrong but he is nowhere near the talent level of Hopkins. Could you argue that with Watson, Brown's numbers would be much better? Yes, and you would likely be right. But the eye test means more to me than stats.

Brown had 69% of the catches Hopkins had but had 91% of his yards & 86% of his TDs and you're trying to spin that into a win for Hopkins? I could counter-argue and say Smoke had 3 times as many 40 yard plays, but it the end it was only 2 more than Hopkins (3 to 1). In the end substance matters. All those extra targets & receptions amounted to a single first down more per game(68 vs 53). He's not keeping that horrific defense off the field all that much longer Smoke. I'd rather have more bang for my buck.

[JoPoy88]

1 hour ago, Da webster guy said:

D Hopkins targeted 150 times caught 104 balls    1,165 yards 7 TD's

John Brown targeted 115 times caught 72 balls   1,060 yards 6 TD's

 

Both dudes sat out week 17

 

Hop averaged just 7 yards per game more than Smoke , with one more touchdown on the year despite 35 more targets.

 

He makes amazing catches, but he's not significantly more productive than Brown this season. 

If you look at yards and/or points per target, Brown comes out quite a bit ahead.

 

I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins, despite all the press he's getting.

 

 

totally fine comparison and thank you for posting. But John Brown is nowhere near Hopkins’ league. I hope you weren’t trying to imply that.

[Jay_Fixit]

What is this crap?

[IgotBILLStopay]

At this point, Hopkins may be a bit better than John Brown. But a Hopkins covered by Tre'davious White is a lot worse than a John Brown covered by Jonathan Joseph or Lonnie Johnson. Just saying.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

13 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

totally fine comparison and thank you for posting. But John Brown is nowhere near Hopkins’ league. I hope you weren’t trying to imply that.

He makes amazing catches, but he's not significantly more productive than Brown this season. 

 

He did say this season in his post. I get that Hopkins has had a really good career, but this season was somewhat of a down year for him. In 2015, 2017 & 2018 he had between 1,378 - 1,572 yards and his TD totals for those years were 11, 13 & 11. The only year in that mix he didn't do as well as this year was 2016 when he had Brock Osweiler & Tom Savage throwing him the ball. His numbers this year and their rank in his 7 year career Recs - 3rd, Yds - 5th, YPC - Last, TDs - 4th, 20 Yard Plays - 5th, 40 Yard Plays - Last, and the ever pivotal First Downs - 4th. And that includes the years when he had Osweiler, Savage, Hoyer, Yates, an old Schaub & a rookie Case Keenum throwing to him, not Deshaun Watson. He's even better protected with Fuller & Stills than he has been in his career besides the first 2 years when Andre Johnson was on the team. He's been an elite WR in the past, but he hasn't been elite this year.

[MJS]

Sure, but this was a down year for Hopkins. His stats are usually eye popping.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

It's not all about stats. Hopkins is the far superior player.

[Doc Brown]

Brown's had a great year but doesn't get the double coverage that Hopkins regularly faces.  You know a WR is good when he can put up those kind of numbers despite every defense game planning to limit your production.

[HOUSE]

How much beer do Houston fans consume in one season ?  The lines are longer in Buffalo hence limiting intake.

[atlbillsfan1975]

This is when you step away from the paper and turn on the film.

Jon Brown is a very good player

Hopkins is a great player. 
One years worth of stats doesn’t not tell the entire story.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

If Smoke received the same attention/respect from D coordinators that Nuk does, then you’d have a real argument 

[BigPappy]

6 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Brown had 69% of the catches Hopkins had but had 91% of his yards & 86% of his TDs and you're trying to spin that into a win for Hopkins? I could counter-argue and say Smoke had 3 times as many 40 yard plays, but it the end it was only 2 more than Hopkins (3 to 1). In the end substance matters. All those extra targets & receptions amounted to a single first down more per game(68 vs 53). He's not keeping that horrific defense off the field all that much longer Smoke. I'd rather have more bang for my buck.

I'd also add that while Hopkins got more targets and catches, smoke edges Hop out in catches per target and has a way better yards per catch than Hop.

Edited January 3, 2020 by BigPappy

[ProcessYaDigg]

I don't care what the numbers say.  I'd much rather have Hopkins on our team over Smoke. 

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

D Hopkins targeted 150 times caught 104 balls    1,165 yards 7 TD's

John Brown targeted 115 times caught 72 balls   1,060 yards 6 TD's

 

Both dudes sat out week 17

 

Hop averaged just 7 yards per game more than Smoke , with one more touchdown on the year despite 35 more targets.

 

He makes amazing catches, but he's not significantly more productive than Brown this season. 

If you look at yards and/or points per target, Brown comes out quite a bit ahead.

 

I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins, despite all the press he's getting.

 

 

 

Fuller seems to be the player that makes the passing game go...heard a stat on WGR driving into work the other day that the Texans average 140 more yards a game passing with Fuller playing than without.  Problem is he seems to be hurt a lot.

[Big Turk]

9 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

Brown had 69% of the catches Hopkins had but had 91% of his yards & 86% of his TDs and you're trying to spin that into a win for Hopkins? I could counter-argue and say Smoke had 3 times as many 40 yard plays, but it the end it was only 2 more than Hopkins (3 to 1). In the end substance matters. All those extra targets & receptions amounted to a single first down more per game(68 vs 53). He's not keeping that horrific defense off the field all that much longer Smoke. I'd rather have more bang for my buck.

 

I'm all for the John Brown love but let's not get carried away here.  Hopkins is a dominant potential HOF player who can take over a game if you are not careful.  Didn't have his best season this year in terms of going downfield, but is still a dangerous weapon.  Brown meanwhile had the best season of his career and while it would be nice to believe he could repeat this next year and the year after, right now it's a complete outlier for him. Hopkins has already had 3 years of 100+ receptions and 5 years of 1,000+ yards.

Edited January 3, 2020 by matter2003

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

It's not all about stats.

 

Unless you're talking about Josh Allen.

 

[Meatloaf63]

3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Unless you're talking about Josh Allen.

 

Good one?

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

18 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

I'm all for the John Brown love but let's not get carried away here.  Hopkins is a dominant potential HOF player who can take over a game if you are not careful.  Didn't have his best season this year in terms of going downfield, but is still a dangerous weapon.  Brown meanwhile had the best season of his career and while it would be nice to believe he could repeat this next year and the year after, right now it's a complete outlier for him. Hopkins has already had 3 years of 100+ receptions and 5 years of 1,000+ yards.

I never said anything about their overall careers, so I don't know why you would give me a rundown of Hopkin's career numbers? I was just replying to a poster saying Hopkins having almost 50% more catches was significantly more productive(In the NFL yards matter more than catches) and how much that one extra first down a game really mattered in the scheme of things. In the end Brown has been better when targeted this year even though A.) He doesn't have Watson throwing to him B.) He doesn't have the chemistry with Allen that Hopkins & Watson have. It's not really close. Statistically it's Hopkins second worst year since he had to share catches with Andre Johnson. The only season worse was when Osweiler & Savage were throwing to him.

[Jay_Fixit]

9 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

At this point, Hopkins may be a bit better than John Brown. But a Hopkins covered by Tre'davious White is a lot worse than a John Brown covered by Jonathan Joseph or Lonnie Johnson. Just saying.

What is this crap?

[Dunkirk Donski]

Just now, Jay_Fixit said:

What is this crap?

Dick Jauron went 13-3 for Chicago in 2001.  He's probably a better coach than McClappy.

[Da webster guy]

Yeah I posted this because I love Hop as a fantasy player and usually have the guy on my team.  As a result, I watch the shorcut version of the offense on DVR and I've seen pretty much every Houston offensive play this year.   He and Deshaun are kind of the same player in that they'll blow your mind one minute and then go flat for quite awhile this past season.   

 

Started thinking about how consistent John Brown is and how many 3rd downs he converted being wide open even when they knew Josh was likely going to him.  Looking at the numbers confirmed it for me.  DHop is hall of fame quality but having a bit of a down year and Brown had a strong year. 

 

To my idiot eyeball test, Brown is better at getting open and he's simply done more NUMBERS wise per target than Hopkins.  Hop may be the league leader in snagging balls when he's covered, great high pointer, body lean into the CB, hand control, etc. and he didn't get credited with a single dropped pass in 2018 which has to be a record on more than 100 targets.  I still think Brown is his equal this season in productivity.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

At this point, Hopkins may be a bit better than John Brown. But a Hopkins covered by Tre'davious White is a lot worse than a John Brown covered by Jonathan Joseph or Lonnie Johnson. Just saying.

 

I love John Brown.  I love his team-first attitude.  I love his can-do spirit.  I love the way he shoulders blame when he doesn't make the catch, maybe more than his share of it.

 

But Man, he's not on the same WR planet as Nuk.  Hopkins has a 3 foot vertical leap and can regularly haul in balls that hit his fingers.  He makes those contested catches.  All. The. Time.

 

Brown is a hardworking, smooth and reliable route runner but he can get out-muscled and shoved off his routes by physical man coverage.

[Augie]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I love John Brown.  I love his team-first attitude.  I love his can-do spirit.  I love the way he shoulders blame when he doesn't make the catch, maybe more than his share of it.

 

But Man, he's not on the same WR planet as Nuk.  Hopkins has a 3 foot vertical leap and can regularly haul in balls that hit his fingers.  He makes those contested catches.  All. The. Time.

 

Brown is a hardworking, smooth and reliable route runner but he can get out-muscled and shoved off his routes by physical man coverage.

 

I must admit I’m pleasantly surprised by the stat comparison, but I  wonder how many Bills fans would turn down a straight up trade. I’m guessing that would be......zero? Now, what would you have to toss in to make it happen. That would be telling. 

[SinceThe70s]

@Da webster guy

 

Fascinating stats. Two things that stuck out to me: on 35 more targets, Hopkins had 32 more catches but only 105 more yards. The 32 catches on 35 extra targets suggests better hands or a more accurate QB (cue the Allen haters). The comparable yardage suggests a lot of 'less productive' catches. I looked up how many first down receptions they had: 53 for Brown (74% of his receptions), 68 for Hopkins (65%)  which is pretty much a wash for me and suggests that my 'less productive' insinuation was wrong.

 

Anyway, I didn't get the impression you were making the point that Brown was better then Hopkins, just that the production this year was comparable. Stats are great, the eye tests are great, but neither should be ignored. For tomorrow, I'm sure the Bills won't overlook Hopkins because of the stats.

[wppete]

Hopkins is going against the best CB in the NFL and Brown is going against one of the worst DB groups in the NFL. Feeling good about Tomorrow! 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I must admit I’m pleasantly surprised by the stat comparison, but I  wonder how many Bills fans would turn down a straight up trade. I’m guessing that would be......zero? Now, what would you have to toss in to make it happen. That would be telling. 

This year I'd probably would go with Smoke. Hopkins has Fuller & Stills so he's been better protected than Brown who has had Beasley only. And I would ask what do you think Brown would've finished with this year if he had the 35 more targets Hopkins had AND Watson throwing him the ball OR the 35 more targets AND he & Allen were on their 3rd year together like Hopkins & Watson? Hopkins had all the advantages, 35 more targets, a better QB(Currently) & better chemistry with his QB, but finished with only 105 more yards and 1 more TD.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

This year I'd probably would go with Smoke. Hopkins has Fuller & Stills so he's been better protected than Brown who has had Beasley only. And I would ask what do you think Brown would've finished with this year if he had the 35 more targets Hopkins had AND Watson throwing him the ball OR the 35 more targets AND he & Allen were on their 3rd year together like Hopkins & Watson? Hopkins had all the advantages, 35 more targets, a better QB(Currently) & better chemistry with his QB, but finished with only 105 more yards and 1 more TD.

 

.So...you would NOT trade Smoke for Hopkins, straight up? That was the question. 

 

I love our guys, but.......

[NoSaint]

23 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

D Hopkins targeted 150 times caught 104 balls    1,165 yards 7 TD's

John Brown targeted 115 times caught 72 balls   1,060 yards 6 TD's

 

Both dudes sat out week 17

 

Hop averaged just 7 yards per game more than Smoke , with one more touchdown on the year despite 35 more targets.

 

He makes amazing catches, but he's not significantly more productive than Brown this season. 

If you look at yards and/or points per target, Brown comes out quite a bit ahead.

 

I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins, despite all the press he's getting.

 

 

comparing browns best year to Hopkins 5th(?) best? And Hopkins is still ahead?

 

yea, I’d say Hopkins would be proven the much better player at that point. Though browns been a great contributor on a reasonable contract.

[SinceThe70s]

4 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

comparing browns best year to Hopkins 5th(?) best? And Hopkins is still ahead?

 

yea, I’d say Hopkins would be proven the much better player at that point. Though browns been a great contributor on a reasonable contract.

 

At the risk of speaking for OP, I think his point was about current year productivity, not a comparison of their careers. And I didn't think he was saying Brown was better than Hopkins. Where I think OP over stepped was:

 

"I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins,"

[NoSaint]

5 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

At the risk of speaking for OP, I think his point was about current year productivity, not a comparison of their careers. And I didn't think he was saying Brown was better than Hopkins. Where I think OP over stepped was:

 

"I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins,"

but by narrowing it so much and having it be a best in career compared below average- to isolate them makes little sense or point is my point. 

Hopkins is a much better player, I even if the 2019 stat line is relatively close.

 

 

 

[SinceThe70s]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

but by narrowing it so much and having it be a best in career compared below average- to isolate them makes little sense or point is my point. 

Hopkins is a much better player, I even if the 2019 stat line is relatively close.

 

 

 

 

I don't think OP ever asserted that Hopkins was better than Brown, he just made an interesting statistical comparison between the two for this year. OP's assertion that McD and company should be more concerned with Hyde and Duke as a result is unfounded IMO.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Off the subject, but funny to consider how few 1,000-yard receivers we have had over the last decade or so. I think you had a stretch where Stevie had a few 1,000 yard years like that, and maybe one with Sammy. Forget about having anyone, like a Hopkins, who can catch 100-120 balls each year! 
 

The JB/Beasley combo has probably been the most productive based on catches and yards from a 1 and 2 the Bills have had since Moulds/Price. 

[GregPersons]

4 hours ago, Augie said:

I must admit I’m pleasantly surprised by the stat comparison, but I  wonder how many Bills fans would turn down a straight up trade. I’m guessing that would be......zero? Now, what would you have to toss in to make it happen. That would be telling. 

 

I think it's okay to give our guys more credit here. Of course Hopkins is the superior player in the long view. But the stats are pleasantly surprising because this is a production based business. This year, fluke or not, Brown was comparable in production to Hopkins, and that's pretty cool.

 

It's like, I don't know who's stats Allen is most similar to in a limited view, but if his production this year was comparable to Drew Brees or Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes, that would be a cause for celebration. Would you turn down trading for any of those guys? Probably same answer as wanting to trade Brown for Hopkins. 

 

Stats don't tell the whole story, etc, but.  Learn to take the W, my friends.

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I don't think OP ever asserted that Hopkins was better than Brown, he just made an interesting statistical comparison between the two for this year. OP's assertion that McD and company should be more concerned with Hyde and Duke as a result is unfounded IMO.

Even if true- it’s incredibly uninteresting to just randomly throw up some poorly contextualized stats without implying any opinions from them. 
 

whether he’s saying browns better than given credit for or Hopkins isn’t as good - he’s implying SOMETHING by putting the two side by side, otherwise he could be posting the return on his 401k and what colors he sees in the sky when he looks out his window to the same effect. 
 

and given the context of those two WRs careers, theres unfortunately a gap that favors the guy that he’s trying to say there isn’t a large gap in favor of. 

[SinceThe70s]

59 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Even if true- it’s incredibly uninteresting to just randomly throw up some poorly contextualized stats without implying any opinions from them. 
 

whether he’s saying browns better than given credit for or Hopkins isn’t as good - he’s implying SOMETHING by putting the two side by side, otherwise he could be posting the return on his 401k and what colors he sees in the sky when he looks out his window to the same effect. 
 

and given the context of those two WRs careers, theres unfortunately a gap that favors the guy that he’s trying to say there isn’t a large gap in favor of. 

 

On the matter of incredibly uninteresting, we disagree. I found it interesting that he posted stats which on the surface suggested there wasn't such a large gap between the contributions of the two players this year.  Doesn't mean that the stats prove that. On the contrary,  I took a superficial attempt at substantiating the 'implication' by looking at first down receptions and came up empty.  

 

And I don't think OP needed to imply any opinion when he specifically said the Bills should worry more about the RB's than Hopkins due to the stats. On that matter OP and I disagree.

 

[NoSaint]

11 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

On the matter of incredibly uninteresting, we disagree. I found it interesting that he posted stats which on the surface suggested there wasn't such a large gap between the contributions of the two players this year.  Doesn't mean that the stats prove that. On the contrary,  I took a superficial attempt at substantiating the 'implication' by looking at first down receptions and came up empty.  

 

And I don't think OP needed to imply any opinion when he specifically said the Bills should worry more about the RB's than Hopkins due to the stats. On that matter OP and I disagree.

 

 

well, his laying the stats side by side with that added commentary I think warrants push back that Hopkins is indeed a better player. Browns good, Hopkins is great. 
 

and if you find his post interesting, more power to you. I don’t think it was particularly productive. 

[SinceThe70s]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

well, his laying the stats side by side with that added commentary I think warrants push back that Hopkins is indeed a better player. Browns good, Hopkins is great. 
 

and if you find his post interesting, more power to you. I don’t think it was particularly productive. 

 

Agreed on the push back and Hopkins being the (IMO much) better player.  I happen to like the stats vs. eye test debates.

 

But are any posts here particularly productive? 

 

8 hours left to kill. Go Bills!