PlayoffsPlease Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Found this chart and article interesting. https://medium.com/the-intelligent-sports-wagerer/what-point-spreads-can-teach-you-about-implied-win-probabilities-a8bb3623d2c5 According to Oddshark, currently 64% of moneyline bets are on the Bills and against the Jets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillies Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Dammit - now I have to spend the rest of the morning picking up pieces of my head off the floor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 the Point Spread has nothing to do with who actually wins and who loses It has to do with getting suckers to spend money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I'd say our chances are 50/50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 you can bet the Bills 16 times and win approx 50% of the time Its how Vegas works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: the Point Spread has nothing to do with who actually wins and who loses It has to do with getting suckers to spend money he referred to a "moneyline" bet. that's just picking the winner or loser. not the spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: the Point Spread has nothing to do with who actually wins and who loses It has to do with getting suckers to spend money True, but this article is merely looking for a historical correlation between point spread and win probability. It really doesn't do much to forecast win probability. For example: according to that formula, the Patriots and Vikings each had over 100% chance of winning in week 3 of last year. Both lost by more than 2 TDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peace Frog Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, teef said: math It's been said that 5 out of 4 people don't understand math. Just sayin'..... Edited September 5, 2019 by Peace Frog 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Just now, Peace Frog said: It's been told that 5 out of 4 people don't understand math. Just sayin'..... are you trying to mess me up with fractions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 What is the air-speed of an unladen swallow? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: True, but this article is merely looking for a historical correlation between point spread and win probability. It really doesn't do much to forecast win probability. For example: according to that formula, the Patriots and Vikings each had over 100% chance of winning in week 3 of last year. Both lost by more than 2 TDs. LOL Over 100% ?? So its a Fuzzy math again just a method of parting a fool and his or her money Edited September 5, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said: What is the air-speed of an unladen swallow? Is that an African swallow or a European swallow? 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Peace Frog said: It's been told that 5 out of 4 people don't understand math. Just sayin'..... 5 minutes ago, teef said: are you trying to mess me up with fractions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said: What is the air-speed of an unladen swallow? 61 MPH I hear Tom swallows a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 For all you fellow math-haters out there, join me and... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: Is that an African swallow or a European swallow? What? I don't know... AAGHHHHH!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: LOL Over 100% ?? So its a Fuzzy math I don't remember the exact spreads, but I am almost certain that the Vikings were a 17-point favorite over the Bills in week 3 of 2018. 0.0303*17+0.50 = 1.0151, which means Minnesota had a 101.51% chance of winning in week 3 of 2018. The final score was 27-6, Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 They were -17 favorites before the game?? That's kinda nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 The problem with using statistics to analyze sports games is they tend to group games together, rather than looking at each game for what it is, a single data point in time that will never happen again. All of the variables for a football game are not accounted for because the rosters, the coaches, the weather, and the stadium are never exactly alike. Additionally, the point spread is a made up number calculated in some form, by a human. I love numbers, but I will freely say applying statistics to sports has more to do with bored people who like both statistics and sports wanting to mash them together. I am not saying numbers are useless in sports, by they need to be applied to the portions of the sport with less variables. Win/Loss predictions include way too many variables to be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Looks right...with that formula Bills at 40% to win, puts them at +150 moneyline which is where they started. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Believer Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Ha... Wouldn’t bet my life on this... or any other system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 35 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: Is that an African swallow or a European swallow? It's Virginia Swallows, nickname Spits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillies Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 100% of everyone I know who got heavy into betting all lost in the end. Myself included. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dablitzkrieg Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1.21 Gigawatts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peace Frog Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 hour ago, buffaloboyinATL said: What? I don't know... AAGHHHHH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GottaRun Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I bought a book on 'Game Theory' and that looks like the chart where I said "I'm not going to finish reading this book" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bray Wyatt Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I think you're overthinking this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wppete Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Nonesense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 60 percent of the time it works every time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 7 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said: Found this chart and article interesting. https://medium.com/the-intelligent-sports-wagerer/what-point-spreads-can-teach-you-about-implied-win-probabilities-a8bb3623d2c5 According to Oddshark, currently 64% of moneyline bets are on the Bills and against the Jets. So you have a correlation, over 32 teams x 16 games. I can see where it might be handy to a better in identifying possible "value" moneyline picks. But as a football fan, what one would really like to know is: does this have value as a predictive model for a specific team on a specific game? I'm gonna guess, "maybe not" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted September 5, 2019 Author Share Posted September 5, 2019 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: So you have a correlation, over 32 teams x 16 games. I can see where it might be handy to a better in identifying possible "value" moneyline picks. But as a football fan, what one would really like to know is: does this have value as a predictive model for a specific team on a specific game? I'm gonna guess, "maybe not" Your guess would be wrong. Unless this formula says 100 % win or 100% loss it cannot be wrong. Underdogs win regularly. This model accurately predicts how likely an underdog is to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CA OC Bills Fan Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 This is just common sense. I don't mean the exact formula is, but what the formula is basically saying is that there's an excellent correlation between who the favorite is and who wins the game and the higher the point spread, the more likely the team is to win. Of course there's exceptions such as Vikings - Bills 2018, but hence the 98% r squared vs. 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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