PlayoffsPlease Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Found this chart and article interesting. https://medium.com/the-intelligent-sports-wagerer/what-point-spreads-can-teach-you-about-implied-win-probabilities-a8bb3623d2c5 According to Oddshark, currently 64% of moneyline bets are on the Bills and against the Jets. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillies Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Dammit - now I have to spend the rest of the morning picking up pieces of my head off the floor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 the Point Spread has nothing to do with who actually wins and who loses It has to do with getting suckers to spend money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I'd say our chances are 50/50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 you can bet the Bills 16 times and win approx 50% of the time Its how Vegas works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: the Point Spread has nothing to do with who actually wins and who loses It has to do with getting suckers to spend money he referred to a "moneyline" bet. that's just picking the winner or loser. not the spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: the Point Spread has nothing to do with who actually wins and who loses It has to do with getting suckers to spend money True, but this article is merely looking for a historical correlation between point spread and win probability. It really doesn't do much to forecast win probability. For example: according to that formula, the Patriots and Vikings each had over 100% chance of winning in week 3 of last year. Both lost by more than 2 TDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peace Frog Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, teef said: math It's been said that 5 out of 4 people don't understand math. Just sayin'..... Edited September 5, 2019 by Peace Frog 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teef Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Just now, Peace Frog said: It's been told that 5 out of 4 people don't understand math. Just sayin'..... are you trying to mess me up with fractions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 What is the air-speed of an unladen swallow? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: True, but this article is merely looking for a historical correlation between point spread and win probability. It really doesn't do much to forecast win probability. For example: according to that formula, the Patriots and Vikings each had over 100% chance of winning in week 3 of last year. Both lost by more than 2 TDs. LOL Over 100% ?? So its a Fuzzy math again just a method of parting a fool and his or her money Edited September 5, 2019 by SlimShady'sGhost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said: What is the air-speed of an unladen swallow? Is that an African swallow or a European swallow? 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Peace Frog said: It's been told that 5 out of 4 people don't understand math. Just sayin'..... 5 minutes ago, teef said: are you trying to mess me up with fractions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said: What is the air-speed of an unladen swallow? 61 MPH I hear Tom swallows a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 For all you fellow math-haters out there, join me and... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: Is that an African swallow or a European swallow? What? I don't know... AAGHHHHH!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, SlimShady'sGhost said: LOL Over 100% ?? So its a Fuzzy math I don't remember the exact spreads, but I am almost certain that the Vikings were a 17-point favorite over the Bills in week 3 of 2018. 0.0303*17+0.50 = 1.0151, which means Minnesota had a 101.51% chance of winning in week 3 of 2018. The final score was 27-6, Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 They were -17 favorites before the game?? That's kinda nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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