Josh Allen Fantasy Value

[atomicpwrd]

Last year in fantasy, I drafted Mahommes late in the draft after picking up Rivers a round earlier.  Needless to say, I hit some fantasy gold there.  Do you feel like something similar could happen with Allen?  I don't think he has the weapons that Mahommes had last year, but we are pretty deep with the ability to spread the ball around a lot.  I think the key to success is if Morse says healthy.

 

CBS posted this article today:  https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-draft-prep-quarterback-sleepers/?ftag=SPM-16-10abi8e

 

They are looking for late round fantasy QB gold...and even mentioned rushing as one of the key things they were looking for.  I don't know how Allen is not on the radar of any of these analysts...I could have sworn that somewhere I read that Allen was the highest scoring fantasy QB for the last 6 weeks of the season.  Sorry I don't remember where I saw that...Among other things, he definitely checks the running QB box, though I hope not as much this year.

 

Also, Lamar Jackson is listed several times...I would not touch him with a 10 foot pole personally.  He is too much like Tyrod for my liking.

 

What say you?

[GoBills808]

He’s a stash for me but then I don’t draft QBs in PPR. Strictly waivers 

[Bill Murray]

Purely from a fantasy perspective, Allen should be average, and if he runs like last year would be above average.  You would still be better suited with a tier 1 QB as your starter, but as far as quality-per-draft spot, Allen would probably be one of the better value picks in the draft considering most people wont even consider him.  

 

If you skip QB and go for the platoon strategy, i would include him along side a pure passer type to hedge the bet.

[atomicpwrd]

That is an interesting take...how does that work our for you?  I typically take a QB in the later rounds and it usually pays dividends.

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

He’s a stash for me but then I don’t draft QBs in PPR. Strictly waivers 

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, atomicpwrd said:

That is an interesting take...how does that work our for you?  I typically take a QB in the later rounds and it usually pays dividends.

 

I play matchups weekly and in 8 team leagues there’s always someone you can find for value, just have to be diligent about putting in the research. Took 2nd last season after Hill got injured but I rode Kittle who was a very lucky pickup...can’t claim it took a ton of skill there??

[eball]

He probably won't be drafted in all but the deepest leagues.  If you like him take a flyer in a late round and hope it works out.

[nickrage]

I took mahommes and fitz last year when the run on qbs started and got lambasted for it

 

then I went until week 10 or 11 before losing a game

Edited August 2, 2019 by nickrage

[C.Biscuit97]

9 minutes ago, eball said:

He probably won't be drafted in all but the deepest leagues.  If you like him take a flyer in a late round and hope it works out.

Disagree.  He is a big time sleeper for a lot of “experts.”  Qbs who run have a ton of value.  Tyrod was a good fantasy qb.  Allen will be drafted and probably in my leagues with Buffalo people, he will be a 1st rounder maybe 1st overall. 

[atomicpwrd]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Disagree.  He is a big time sleeper for a lot of “experts.”  Qbs who run have a ton of value.  Tyrod was a good fantasy qb.  Allen will be drafted and probably in my leagues with Buffalo people, he will be a 1st rounder maybe 1st overall. 

I need to play in your league.  ?  You can't be a Bill's homer and win in fantasy...at least not just yet.

34 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I play matchups weekly and in 8 team leagues there’s always someone you can find for value, just have to be diligent about putting in the research. Took 2nd last season after Hill got injured but I rode Kittle who was a very lucky pickup...can’t claim it took a ton of skill there??

Lol...nice with Kittle.  There is more than one way to skin a cat...I took second drafting Mahommes.  Rivers came in handy also...I actually started Rivers the first few weeks.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Josh had big point games from his legs. 

 

Im not sure he’ll have the consistency in fantasy to be a reliable starter, esp with the ints 

[MJS]

He's a good backup. Worth a late round pick. Running QB's are always higher valued in fantasy.

46 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Disagree.  He is a big time sleeper for a lot of “experts.”  Qbs who run have a ton of value.  Tyrod was a good fantasy qb.  Allen will be drafted and probably in my leagues with Buffalo people, he will be a 1st rounder maybe 1st overall. 

That's crazy talk.

[StHustle]

51 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Disagree.  He is a big time sleeper for a lot of “experts.”  Qbs who run have a ton of value.  Tyrod was a good fantasy qb.  Allen will be drafted and probably in my leagues with Buffalo people, he will be a 1st rounder maybe 1st overall. 

 

Anyone who selects a QB in the first round let alone 1st overall I clueless and hopefully for them, not playing in a paid league

[auburnbillsbacker]

In auction leagues you can get him for a dollar.  Tebow was good in fantasy due to his rushing ability.  I think Allen will be better than Tebow.

[GoBills808]

57 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Disagree.  He is a big time sleeper for a lot of “experts.”  Qbs who run have a ton of value.  Tyrod was a good fantasy qb.  Allen will be drafted and probably in my leagues with Buffalo people, he will be a 1st rounder maybe 1st overall. 

 

He has value, not denying that, but there's literally no reason to take ANY quarterback before the 5th-7th rounds

[C.Biscuit97]

29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

He has value, not denying that, but there's literally no reason to take ANY quarterback before the 5th-7th rounds

Agree 100%.  There isn’t much separation between the top and like 15.  Mahomes did win some leagues though but it was because he was great draft value (of course I had him and Gurley and didn’t win ?).

38 minutes ago, StHustle said:

 

Anyone who selects a QB in the first round let alone 1st overall I clueless and hopefully for them, not playing in a paid league

Agreed.  I was in a league one year and someone took Tannehill in the 1st round.  Spoiler already: he did really bad.

[nucci]

You should all being doing auction drafts

[Da webster guy]

After he returned in Week 12 Josh scored the most PPR points (145.3) of any NFL quarterback and second-most points of any player.   

That's as a rookie with a weaker group on offense than this year.

He's also worth a little more to me because he's a Bill and fantasy is more fun when you can watch your players actually play vs just seeing numbers come up on a screen.  

Some dudes just care about pure points and some of us include the fun factor, taking into account players you will likely watch live more than others.

Thats the reason I dont draft Cardinals, Jags, Skins etc.  

Probably also the reason I haven't won my league in a decade.....

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

 

Probably also the reason I haven't won my league in a decade.....

 

 

 

LOL.  So did you take McCoy in the first last year? And where will you take him this year. I think he went late third or 4th round in the league I was in last year. 

 

I'll be honest I want Allen bad this year and since I play in a league with my brother who is also a Bills fan I know I am going to have to take him before the 6th round if I want to guarantee I get him.

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

In my league we have a few Bills fans and I did draft him last round last year and dropped him when he got hurt. (I had too many injuries and needed the roster spot). Would of been a great keeper QB and I believe he will be a stand out fantasy player this year.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

I don’t think Allen will be as good of a FF quarterback as he was at the end of last season.  Many more mouths to feed on that offense, and I don’t think Allen will be running for his life like he was last season.

 

I will target Bills D/ST and Cole Beasley in my 10 team PPR league.  Perhaps take a shot at Devin Singletary in the last couple rounds.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Late round flier, at best. Depending on the format (I'm in a few this year), Allen will likely float between someone's bench and the waiver wire.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

23 hours ago, nucci said:

You should all being doing auction drafts

 

I have a league with 10 friends and each year the new league champion can propose new rules that have to be voted for by 6 of 10 owners to invoke (point increase, bench, IDP, etc). My one ####### of a friend, who talks so much trash and undoubtedly always finishes poorly, swears he will bring the auction to our league. These past two years, league winners have brought auction to a vote just to piss him off, with final votes ending 9 to 1 in consecutive years.

 

Maybe next year.

[Doc Brown]

Quarterback is so loaded this year that you can make the argument that Brady or Stafford's not even in the top 20.  Getting a dependable QB is a pretty sure thing in a ten team league as late as the eighth to tenth round depending on the format.

 

Then you have a few potentially great mobile quarterbacks you can take late (Jackson, Allen, Murray).

[WideNine]

On 8/2/2019 at 12:28 PM, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Josh had big point games from his legs. 

 

Im not sure he’ll have the consistency in fantasy to be a reliable starter, esp with the ints 

 

I'm an unabashed Bills homer in my league where fans are all about the NFC Central.

 

It is good natured ribbing and with the exception of the Bills' defense, I may as well just hand my money over.

 

Maybe my luck changes this year:)

 

Then there were the questionable moves like the year I traded this big TE in SD who was coming on for Jimmy "the donut" Smith, or when I took Cadillac as my 1st RB and he got a flat.

 

Basically, I suck at FF.

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 8/2/2019 at 9:15 AM, atomicpwrd said:

Last year in fantasy, I drafted Mahommes late in the draft after picking up Rivers a round earlier.  Needless to say, I hit some fantasy gold there.  Do you feel like something similar could happen with Allen?  I don't think he has the weapons that Mahommes had last year, but we are pretty deep with the ability to spread the ball around a lot.  I think the key to success is if Morse says healthy.

 

CBS posted this article today:  https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-draft-prep-quarterback-sleepers/?ftag=SPM-16-10abi8e

 

They are looking for late round fantasy QB gold...and even mentioned rushing as one of the key things they were looking for.  I don't know how Allen is not on the radar of any of these analysts...I could have sworn that somewhere I read that Allen was the highest scoring fantasy QB for the last 6 weeks of the season.  Sorry I don't remember where I saw that...Among other things, he definitely checks the running QB box, though I hope not as much this year.

 

Also, Lamar Jackson is listed several times...I would not touch him with a 10 foot pole personally.  He is too much like Tyrod for my liking.

 

What say you?

 

Allen was the highest scoring QB in FFL last year in many scoring formats over the last 6 games.  

 

He is absolutely a major lotto ticket candidate like Mahomes was last year late.  HOWEVER, the difference is Mahomes grossly out scored all other QBs.  This year, QB is very deep and very little difference from like the 4th guy down to the 15th guy.  So I don’t know Allen is going to be so much better than other guys in that range at his best because we don’t know how much he will run this year or how much his passing production will increase.

 

Here is what I have successfully done in like 10 straight mock drafts right now.  I grab Cam Newton in like the 10th round (been there every time and he’s fully healthy again, so he’s a steal IMO) and then grab Josh in like the 12th round.

 

Healthy newton is easily a top 5 guy, and he’s going like QB15 right now.  Then if Allen hits, I got two guys with EASY FFL Playoff schedules that are dual threats and combined they have one of the easiest (in a matchups rotation) 16 game schedule in the NFL for Fantasy purposes.

 

 

Edited August 3, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

22 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I'm an unabashed Bills homer in my league where fans are all about the NFC Central.

 

It is good natured ribbing and with the exception of the Bills' defense, I may as well just hand my money over.

 

Maybe my luck changes this year:)

 

Then there were the questionable moves like the year I traded this big TE in SD who was coming on for Jimmy "the donut" Smith, or when I took Cadillac as my 1st RB and he got a flat.

 

Basically, I suck at FF.

 

 

 

 

Hilarious...  I go the other way. Never draft any bills player. Maybe an occasional waiver. 

 

I just dont don’t want to confuse hope and analytical expectation. 

[BUFFALOKIE]

30 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Allen was the highest scoring QB in FFL last year in many scoring formats over the last 6 games.  

 

He is absolutely a major lotto ticket candidate like Mahomes was last year late.  HOWEVER, the difference is Mahomes grossly out scored all other QBs.  This year, QB is very deep and very little difference from like the 4th guy down to the 15th guy.  So I don’t know Allen is going to be so much better than other guys in that range at his best because we don’t know how much he will run this year or how much his passing production will increase.

 

Here is what I have successfully done in like 10 straight mock drafts right now.  I grab Cam Newton in like the 10th round (been there every time and he’s fully healthy again, so he’s a steal IMO) and then grab Josh in like the 12th round.

 

Healthy newton is easily a top 5 guy, and he’s going like QB15 right now.  Then if Allen hits, I got two guys with EASY FFL Playoff schedules that are dual threats and combined they have one of the easiest (in a matchups rotation) 16 game schedule in the NFL for Fantasy purposes.

 

 

I may try your advice. I have two drafts next Saturday (one auction, one snake keeper) I already have Allen in my keeper, and he will only cost me a # 16 pick to keep. In my auction league, I will get him and Cam for cheap.

On 8/2/2019 at 2:26 PM, nucci said:

You should all being doing auction drafts

Auction is where it's at! By far my most fun league on draft day, and really separates the knows from the know nots.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, BUFFALOKIE said:

I may try your advice. I have two drafts next Saturday (one auction, one snake keeper) I already have Allen in my keeper, and he will only cost me a # 16 pick to keep. In my auction league, I will get him and Cam for cheap.

Auction is where it's at! By far my most fun league on draft day, and really separates the knows from the know nots.

I wish my big buy in $650 league would switch to Auction, but honestly they are so wasted drunk by the 9th round, its almost impossible to think they could handle an auction draft.  Last 4 rounds usually takes like 2+ hours even with a 90 second clock in a ten team snake draft.  Last year it took like 25 min to get one pick correctly put in LMFAO.  We do this draft in the same bar every year in Santa Monica and our bar tab for 8 or 9 people (we have a few out of towners, so not everyone always makes in the then team league) ends up about $1400 to $1600.  

[BUFFALOKIE]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I wish my big buy in $650 league would switch to Auction, but honestly they are so wasted drunk by the 9th round, its almost impossible to think they could handle an auction draft.  Last 4 rounds usually takes like 2+ hours even with a 90 second clock in a ten team snake draft.  Last year it took like 25 min to get one pick correctly put in LMFAO.  We do this draft in the same bar every year in Santa Monica and our bar tab for 8 or 9 people (we have a few out of towners, so not everyone always makes in the then team league) ends up about $1400 to $1600.  

My sister is a manager at a nearby Hampton Inn. We've used their meeting room the last several (7?) years for free. 70" screen, nice customized U-shaped table arrangement. Outlets and extension cords, small sink/kitchen area. We have our own home grown software for timing, dollar, and pick recording - all displayed on the big TV. 

 

Several dozen wings, veggie trays, deli trays, cookies, etc, and lots of beer.

 

12:00 to 8-9ish for two drafts. The auction definitely takes much longer, and folks are well lubricated by then so the smack talk and heckling are awesome!!!

 

One of my favorite days of the year!

[Chandler#81]

On 8/2/2019 at 12:15 PM, atomicpwrd said:

Last year in fantasy, I drafted Mahommes late in the draft after picking up Rivers a round earlier.  Needless to say, I hit some fantasy gold there.  Do you feel like something similar could happen with Allen?  I don't think he has the weapons that Mahommes had last year, but we are pretty deep with the ability to spread the ball around a lot.  I think the key to success is if Morse says healthy.

 

CBS posted this article today:  https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-draft-prep-quarterback-sleepers/?ftag=SPM-16-10abi8e

 

They are looking for late round fantasy QB gold...and even mentioned rushing as one of the key things they were looking for.  I don't know how Allen is not on the radar of any of these analysts...I could have sworn that somewhere I read that Allen was the highest scoring fantasy QB for the last 6 weeks of the season.  Sorry I don't remember where I saw that...Among other things, he definitely checks the running QB box, though I hope not as much this year.

 

Also, Lamar Jackson is listed several times...I would not touch him with a 10 foot pole personally.  He is too much like Tyrod for my liking.

 

What say you?

 

That you place the “key to success” on 1 OLineman is unsettling -if not scary. I don’t think this season is going to turn out like so many hope for. WAAY to many new players to reasonably think a playoff team will emerge. I fear we’ll lose early games against teams we’re probably better than for this reason. By the time we actually start to play cohesively, we’re going up against veteran playoff teams.

I do like Josh Allen. But I suspect more of the same from last year -at least early on, given the unfamiliarity of 9 of the 11 offensive starters.

 

edit: ergo, I wouldn’t chose him for fantasy this year.

[DuckyBoys]

This will be the first year since 1989 I am not doing fantasy.  Feels like with all of constant information overload and people playing in endless leagues the fun part of it went away.  In the early days we had to wait for Mondays paper to score by hand.  Primetime with Tom jackson and Chris Berman was a must to preview some of the scoring from your team.  There was one fantasy magazine, lol. But most of all the players in the league actually got together all the time to watch games or call each other to talk smack. 

 

I still do some fan duel for fun  If I get back into another league down the road it would  only be auction format  Way more fun, challenging and you have the opportunity to own any player.  if you want to have Mahomes and Saquon  on your squad you can do it.

 

Josh Allen will likely be drafted as qb 20 or lower but I'd say he has some terrific upside

[RocCityRoller]

Late round flyer or waiver priority guy sure. His last 6 games were FF excellent.

 

Since Pass TDs are worth 4 in many leagues, and passing yds 1/20, having a guy who can gain 6 pt TDs and 1 pt/ 10 yds rushing is pretty good, if the QB can be even just average in passing he becomes fantasy gold.

 

JA will be a weekly FF/ auction FF magnet like Jackson and Watson.

 

 

[rayray808]

the fact that he was the NUMBER ONE qb in fantasy over the last 6 weeks of the season last year SHOULD put him in the top 10 heading into the season but of course we get Rodney Dangerfield treatment and he is in the mid 20's...

 

I will be drafting him and he will be a top 10 overall QB

[BaaadThingsMan]

I'll take Allen as my QB1

12 man league

Custom point system 

Edited August 4, 2019 by BaaadThingsMan

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

I do like Josh Allen. But I suspect more of the same from last year -at least early on, given the unfamiliarity of 9 of the 11 offensive starters.

 

 

 

More of the same from last year? Well which half of the season? His first six starts or his last six starts? Because he was a completely different player in a good way in his last six starts. It is hard for me to imagine him regressing back to to his first six starts.

[Chandler#81]

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

More of the same from last year? Well which half of the season? His first six starts or his last six starts? Because he was a completely different player in a good way in his last six starts. It is hard for me to imagine him regressing back to to his first six starts.

Duh. Why would anyone think he’d play like he did vs Chargers? Of course not. I was speaking more to how I believe the team will play early on -meaning Josh will resort to running routinely as a desperate attempt to generate offense amid confusion. Everything they’re trying NOT to have happen. A healthy Mitch Morse or not (unlikely), this is what I expect. For you FF dudes, I suppose this means I’d use him early on.

[nucci]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I wish my big buy in $650 league would switch to Auction, but honestly they are so wasted drunk by the 9th round, its almost impossible to think they could handle an auction draft.  Last 4 rounds usually takes like 2+ hours even with a 90 second clock in a ten team snake draft.  Last year it took like 25 min to get one pick correctly put in LMFAO.  We do this draft in the same bar every year in Santa Monica and our bar tab for 8 or 9 people (we have a few out of towners, so not everyone always makes in the then team league) ends up about $1400 to $1600.  

Fortunately we do ours online...we have people all over the country so we have to do it this way. it really is better and more fun

11 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

This will be the first year since 1989 I am not doing fantasy.  Feels like with all of constant information overload and people playing in endless leagues the fun part of it went away.  In the early days we had to wait for Mondays paper to score by hand.  Primetime with Tom jackson and Chris Berman was a must to preview some of the scoring from your team.  There was one fantasy magazine, lol. But most of all the players in the league actually got together all the time to watch games or call each other to talk smack. 

 

I still do some fan duel for fun  If I get back into another league down the road it would  only be auction format  Way more fun, challenging and you have the opportunity to own any player.  if you want to have Mahomes and Saquon  on your squad you can do it.

 

Josh Allen will likely be drafted as qb 20 or lower but I'd say he has some terrific upside

we used USA Today stats for our league back in '90s

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Duh. Why would anyone think he’d play like he did vs Chargers? Of course not. I was speaking more to how I believe the team will play early on -meaning Josh will resort to running routinely as a desperate attempt to generate offense amid confusion. Everything they’re trying NOT to have happen. A healthy Mitch Morse or not (unlikely), this is what I expect. For you FF dudes, I suppose this means I’d use him early on.

 

I see. Your post was confusing is all. You think more of the same in a good way from last year (which was the highest scoring FF QB in the final six games or whatever), yet you say you wouldn't chose him for Fantasy this year. If his running numbers tail off I would think/hope that would coincide with an uptick in his passing yards/TD's. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, nucci said:

Fortunately we do ours online...we have people all over the country so we have to do it this way. it really is better and more fun

we used USA Today stats for our league back in '90s

 

Yeah we do ours online too so all the teams are input live in the draft.  Plus we have 2 guys in different parts of the country too who try and fly out but don’t always make it.  

[Chandler#81]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I see. Your post was confusing is all. You think more of the same in a good way from last year (which was the highest scoring FF QB in the final six games or whatever), yet you say you wouldn't chose him for Fantasy this year. If his running numbers tail off I would think/hope that would coincide with an uptick in his passing yards/TD's. 

 

 

Yeah, I’m no expert in FF. Sorry for the confusion.