BBFS - 8 Wins sounds about right to me

[Virgil]

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

@ Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Virgil

[Rockee96]

That sounds about right. 

[Warcodered]

They didn't get blown out by the Jets they lost by 4 pts. They blew out the Jets when Allen and Darnold weren't starting.

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

They didn't get blown out by the Jets they lost by 4 pts. They blew out the Jets when Allen and Darnold weren't starting.

 

Two years ago during the primetime game

[Bills fan since 87]

How can I roast that?  It all is explained well and pretty much right (Jets didn't blow us out.  Matt Barkley Led us to a big win in NY and the Jets rallied to beat us by 4 in Buffalo).  I agree with everything you said.  Of course you.and I both hope you're wrong.  Go Bills.

[Malazan]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Two years ago during the primetime game

 

"The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of. "

 

Why would you even talk about two years ago? They are both utterly different teams from then..

[PromoTheRobot]

17 minutes ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home opener, but who knows sometimes)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

vs Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

 

Perfectly reasonable take. 

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

How can I roast that?  It all is explained well and pretty much right (Jets didn't blow us out.  Matt Barkley Led us to a big win in NY and the Jets rallied to beat us by 4 in Buffalo).  I agree with everything you said.  Of course you.and I both hope you're wrong.  Go Bills.

 

Again, two years ago under the McDermott regime.  We lost 34-21, with two of our TD's coming in garbage time at the end

3 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

"The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of. "

 

Why would you even talk about two years ago? They are both utterly different teams from then..

 

I'm talking about the team under McDermott as a whole.  He's found a way to get blown out in each season.  

[LSHMEAB]

23 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

 

 

6 should be 1 and 5 should be 2. Allen's improvement will be the most critical factor offensively(obviously). The overall talent is not GREAT, but if the real deal, he'll elevate those around him in year 2.

 

My main concern defensively remains edge rushers. Lorax is a great dude, but ancient. Hughes is solid, but not elite. Murphy and Lawson? Mehhhh. Oliver will help, but maybe not enough. I would feel much more confident going into this season if we'd have swung for the fences and landed Clark or Clowney.

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

6 should be 1 and 5 should be 2. Allen's improvement will be the most critical factor offensively(obviously). The overall talent is not GREAT, but if the real deal, he'll elevate those around him in year 2.

 

My main concern defensively remains edge rushers. Lorax is a great dude, but ancient. Hughes is solid, but not elite. Murphy and Lawson? Mehhhh. Oliver will help, but maybe not enough. I would feel much more confident going into this season if we'd have swung for the fences and landed Clark or Clowney.

 

Sorry, I'm so used to typing "in no particular order"

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

Sorry, I'm so used to typing "in no particular order"

Yeah man. That's your trademark disclaimer. You're slipping! Great post BTW.

[Malazan]

9 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Again, two years ago under the McDermott regime.  We lost 34-21, with two of our TD's coming in garbage time at the end

 

I'm talking about the team under McDermott as a whole.  He's found a way to get blown out in each season.  

 

..and how many times was Gase blown out? What is the rate of "blowout" losses for McDermott compared to other coaches in the NFL the last 3 years?

 

[whatdrought]

I’ve always liked you @Virgil, I feel we bonded over the Mock drafts, and I have always appreciated your recaps. That being said, get your factual opinions out of here and come back when you realize we’re obviously a 12 win team. 

 

[Virgil]

Just now, jeremy2020 said:

 

..and how many times was Gase blown out? What is the rate of "blowout" losses for McDermott compared to other coaches in the NFL the last 3 years?

 

 

Not saying it doesn't nor am I saying I dislike him as a coach.  Quite the opposite in fact.  I'm merely seeing the surprising new, unexplainable trend. 

 

And if you want to set the bar at Gase, then we are in a whole lot of trouble ?

Just now, whatdrought said:

I’ve always liked you @Virgil, I feel we bonded over the Mock drafts, and I have always appreciated your recaps. That being said, get your factual opinions out of here and come back when you realize we’re obviously a 12 win team. 

 

 

Sorry sir.  16-0!

[whatdrought]

7 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Not saying it doesn't nor am I saying I dislike him as a coach.  Quite the opposite in fact.  I'm merely seeing the surprising new, unexplainable trend. 

 

And if you want to set the bar at Gase, then we are in a whole lot of trouble ?

 

Sorry sir.  16-0!

 

Much better. 

 

All kidding aside, I really have no idea what this year will look like.

 

The McD blowouts that you mentioned is that rattle coming from under the hood of your car that you ignore for 6 months cause if you don’t pay attention to it it can’t hurt you- so thanks for reminding me.

 

I said in another thread that I feel like we’re either gonna be terrible and have a miserable season, or else we’re gonna blow the top off- mainly cause I see Allen either lighting it up or flaming hard. Either way, i have way more excitement than I usually do, which is nice and also maybe a disaster waiting to happen.

 

in fact, in the past two years, my most excitement levels have always been followed by devastation:

 

2017 going into the jets game that turned into a blowout.

2018 season opener.

2018 going into the Packers game after the Vikings game. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by whatdrought

[BADOLBILZ]

I don't really look at it on a game to game prediction basis..........but the overall schedule is about as easy as they could have hoped for.............that usually ends up working out accordingly........like the last two seasons where the Bills had soft finishes to their schedule and they took advantage of that.

 

There will be games that they win that everyone assumes right now that they will lose............much like @Minnesota last year.

 

I do agree that sweeping the Jets and Dolphins has been expected before under even more favorable circumstances and didn't happen.   Go back to 2007.......the Bills finished second in the AFC East and the Jets and Fish finished 4-12 and 1-15.    Bills fans almost universally assumed the rising Bills would sweep them both in 2008..........and the Bills ended up going 0-6 in the division and the Fish won the division at 11-5 and the Jets went 9-7.    

 

To me what it comes down to is that there are no excuses anymore............I don't care if certain teams look better on paper now..........we shouldn't have to rationalize why it's reasonable to lose games.........if you want to be a contender you have to take care of business.

 

It's McBeane's job to put a contender on the field that we don't have to make excuses for.    If they get off to a good start......and some of the teams on the schedule do not......then the narrative about which games they should win will change quickly.  

Edited July 23, 2019 by BADOLBILZ

[Chandler#81]

Less concerned w/ W/L’s as long as we make the Post Season. One of the League’s most informed, longest tenured and most respected voices, The Godfather, Gil Brandt, said this evening he “really believes the Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs this season”. 

That’s good enough for me!

[transplantbillsfan]

No.

 

We're winning 10+ games and going to the playoffs.

 

It shall be.

[John from Riverside]

We are winning a patriot game this year

[Billshank Redemption]

This makes sense to me, good, well thought out post.

 

As far as I am concerned 8-8 is probably where this team ends up even though I (like many others) am hoping for 10+.

 

 

[Virgil]

20 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

We are winning a patriot game this year

 

Don’t threaten me with a good time 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Way to stick the neck out there. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

8-8 would be a huge disappointment three years in to a new regime with the schedule they have.  Just start 2-0 and 10 wins is very possible

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

8-8 would be a huge disappointment three years in to a new regime with the schedule they have.  Just start 2-0 and 10 wins is very possible

 

I fully expect them to start 2-0 and still see 8-8.  

 

Hence, the 5-2 references. 

[JerseyBills]

6 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

vs Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

I'm just going by last year and what would be considered blowout losses , I mean it's really no mystery! You're talking like you have no clue why we got blown out and it took me all but 5 minutes to tell you why. 

 

Simply put - Extreme dysfunction at the QB position . Nate Peterman ,Derek Anderson , extremely raw Josh Allen and oh yeah, an absolutely terrible OL and oh yeah , absolutely terrible WR . Once we cut ties with Holmes, Benjamin and Kerley , guess what ? No more blow outs! Not one. And that's with a raw rookies behind a joke of an OL throwing to an UDFA rookie , Zay and McKenzie who we got like week 10!

 

The Bears blowout they had 2 defensive TD , playing against Nate Peterman! Again, it's not a mystery as to why the blowouts occurred. Kinda common sense. Unfortunately we were rebuilding and were stuck with awful OL and WR but that all changed this off season. I wouldn't worry to much about blowouts and McDermott anymore. Again- NATE PETERMAN , Derek Anderson and a way to raw rookie Josh Allen prior to his injury. No blowouts when Josh returned. I'd bet there aren't any this year. I'm that confident in this coaching

[machine gun kelly]

Virgil - I wouldn’t roast you as you provide good feedback, but I think we can win 1 or 2 of you’re stated losses.  We have to if we want to be considered for the playoffs.  I think we can get to 9-7, and with luck 10-6.  This line will be completely different which should improve the run game, and the passing attack.  Allen shouldn’t be a deer in the headlights like the beginning of last season.  Our defense will most likely be even better with a couple of key acquisitions.

 

It’s all speculation now so let’s have fun and see how it lays out.  Like every year, I won’t go negative nelly until November and we look horrible.  September is key.

[Boca BIlls]

7 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Two years ago during the primetime game

Hahahaha 2 years ago...

[aristocrat]

it's all on allen.  if he has a great year this team will have 8 wins pretty quick but if he's struggling this team will not get to 8 wins.

[Tatonka68]

So you think this team is one game worse than the 2017 playoff team???? REALLY? People live on the past to predict the future, please! The Bills have a QB now the skies the limit.

[ALF]

It all depends if the OL can gel and Trent Murphy is fully healthy.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8-8  LOL    

 

“wet blanket”  9 wins at worst.  And that would be because or  major injuries. 

 

 

I can hear the thunder and feel the ground shaking already 

[SoCal Deek]

Not to get overly picky but the Browns game is in Cleveland. 

[fansince88]

9 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

vs Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

I love your "10 things posts" but you are dead to me now......Im headed to my safe corner to be alone.

[Virgil]

31 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not to get overly picky but the Browns game is in Cleveland. 

 

And my OCD has now fixed it 

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I'm just going by last year and what would be considered blowout losses , I mean it's really no mystery! You're talking like you have no clue why we got blown out and it took me all but 5 minutes to tell you why. 

 

Simply put - Extreme dysfunction at the QB position . Nate Peterman ,Derek Anderson , extremely raw Josh Allen and oh yeah, an absolutely terrible OL and oh yeah , absolutely terrible WR . Once we cut ties with Holmes, Benjamin and Kerley , guess what ? No more blow outs! Not one. And that's with a raw rookies behind a joke of an OL throwing to an UDFA rookie , Zay and McKenzie who we got like week 10!

 

The Bears blowout they had 2 defensive TD , playing against Nate Peterman! Again, it's not a mystery as to why the blowouts occurred. Kinda common sense. Unfortunately we were rebuilding and were stuck with awful OL and WR but that all changed this off season. I wouldn't worry to much about blowouts and McDermott anymore. Again- NATE PETERMAN , Derek Anderson and a way to raw rookie Josh Allen prior to his injury. No blowouts when Josh returned. I'd bet there aren't any this year. I'm that confident in this coaching

 

All valid points, but our defense was equally to blame for some as well.  Remember when the Saints didn’t even pass the ball in the second half for some ridiculous amount of consecutive times?  

 

Yes, the offensive failed to score in most of those games, but the defense laid an egg too at times 

[Virgil]

57 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

So you think this team is one game worse than the 2017 playoff team???? REALLY? People live on the past to predict the future, please! The Bills have a QB now the skies the limit.

 

Yes, it sounds dumb.  But like the title says and repeated multiple times in the post, this is BBFB and Billsy based.  

 

It’s who we’ve been for two decades until we aren’t. 

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Virgil - I wouldn’t roast you as you provide good feedback, but I think we can win 1 or 2 of you’re stated losses.  We have to if we want to be considered for the playoffs.  I think we can get to 9-7, and with luck 10-6.  This line will be completely different which should improve the run game, and the passing attack.  Allen shouldn’t be a deer in the headlights like the beginning of last season.  Our defense will most likely be even better with a couple of key acquisitions.

 

It’s all speculation now so let’s have fun and see how it lays out.  Like every year, I won’t go negative nelly until November and we look horrible.  September is key.

 

I think we can too.  I think we are capable of winning 12 games honestly.  But I only see 8 for the reasons listed 

[Mrbojanglezs]

IF Allen takes the next step we can beat any team

[McBean]

10 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

@ Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

 

 

It's real simple to me why we are in for a huge let down season...

 

Las Vegas says so. 

 

Those guys can see into the future. 

 

5-11

[Virgil]

Just now, McBean said:

 

 

It's real simple to me why we are in for a huge let down season...

 

Las Vegas says so. 

 

Those guys can see into the future. 

 

5-11

 

Even I think that’s BS and can’t understand how they think that 

[gjv001]

I'd be very disappointed if the Bills don't achieve 9 wins.

[dollars 2 donuts]

10 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

@ Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

 

 

Screw you, Virg, on making complete and reasonable sense.  ?

 

Of course, JK, brother.

 

I feel you...especially the apex of the feel being the 5-2 starts.  Get me to 6-3 before I really start to believe, even though it is one more in each column.  Too many memories of seeing 5-2, become 5-4 and then worse.

 

Look, I've been saying it for awhile and I think a guy on NFL radio agreed with me, even though I am generally unknown to everyone, everywhere other than for being extremely thin and good looking*.  That is I believe the floor for this team is 8-8.  I think if Josh Allen makes no improvement whatsoever over last year, they are 8-8.  

 

After the debacle that was the first two games, if you remove the Patriots games (i know, I know, but just hang with me) this team was 6-6 and they were missing their rookie starting QB for 40% (1-3) of that time.  

 

I think that if nothing tragic happens this team is 9-7 and their drive and coaching (intangibles at this time) could get them higher to 10-6.

 

However, I recently told a friend I'm feeling 11-5 in my bones.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

*  This may be a lie.