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Virgil

BBFS - 8 Wins sounds about right to me

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Posted (edited)

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

Edited by Virgil
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They didn't get blown out by the Jets they lost by 4 pts. They blew out the Jets when Allen and Darnold weren't starting.

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1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

They didn't get blown out by the Jets they lost by 4 pts. They blew out the Jets when Allen and Darnold weren't starting.

 

Two years ago during the primetime game

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How can I roast that?  It all is explained well and pretty much right (Jets didn't blow us out.  Matt Barkley Led us to a big win in NY and the Jets rallied to beat us by 4 in Buffalo).  I agree with everything you said.  Of course you.and I both hope you're wrong.  Go Bills.

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5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Two years ago during the primetime game

 

"The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of. "

 

Why would you even talk about two years ago? They are both utterly different teams from then..

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17 minutes ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home opener, but who knows sometimes)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

vs Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

 

Perfectly reasonable take. 

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4 minutes ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

How can I roast that?  It all is explained well and pretty much right (Jets didn't blow us out.  Matt Barkley Led us to a big win in NY and the Jets rallied to beat us by 4 in Buffalo).  I agree with everything you said.  Of course you.and I both hope you're wrong.  Go Bills.

 

Again, two years ago under the McDermott regime.  We lost 34-21, with two of our TD's coming in garbage time at the end

3 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

"The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of. "

 

Why would you even talk about two years ago? They are both utterly different teams from then..

 

I'm talking about the team under McDermott as a whole.  He's found a way to get blown out in each season.  

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23 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

 

 

6 should be 1 and 5 should be 2. Allen's improvement will be the most critical factor offensively(obviously). The overall talent is not GREAT, but if the real deal, he'll elevate those around him in year 2.

 

My main concern defensively remains edge rushers. Lorax is a great dude, but ancient. Hughes is solid, but not elite. Murphy and Lawson? Mehhhh. Oliver will help, but maybe not enough. I would feel much more confident going into this season if we'd have swung for the fences and landed Clark or Clowney.

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1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

6 should be 1 and 5 should be 2. Allen's improvement will be the most critical factor offensively(obviously). The overall talent is not GREAT, but if the real deal, he'll elevate those around him in year 2.

 

My main concern defensively remains edge rushers. Lorax is a great dude, but ancient. Hughes is solid, but not elite. Murphy and Lawson? Mehhhh. Oliver will help, but maybe not enough. I would feel much more confident going into this season if we'd have swung for the fences and landed Clark or Clowney.

 

Sorry, I'm so used to typing "in no particular order"

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1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

Sorry, I'm so used to typing "in no particular order"

Yeah man. That's your trademark disclaimer. You're slipping! Great post BTW.

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9 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Again, two years ago under the McDermott regime.  We lost 34-21, with two of our TD's coming in garbage time at the end

 

I'm talking about the team under McDermott as a whole.  He's found a way to get blown out in each season.  

 

..and how many times was Gase blown out? What is the rate of "blowout" losses for McDermott compared to other coaches in the NFL the last 3 years?

 

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I’ve always liked you @Virgil, I feel we bonded over the Mock drafts, and I have always appreciated your recaps. That being said, get your factual opinions out of here and come back when you realize we’re obviously a 12 win team. 

 

;)

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Just now, jeremy2020 said:

 

..and how many times was Gase blown out? What is the rate of "blowout" losses for McDermott compared to other coaches in the NFL the last 3 years?

 

 

Not saying it doesn't nor am I saying I dislike him as a coach.  Quite the opposite in fact.  I'm merely seeing the surprising new, unexplainable trend. 

 

And if you want to set the bar at Gase, then we are in a whole lot of trouble 😋

Just now, whatdrought said:

I’ve always liked you @Virgil, I feel we bonded over the Mock drafts, and I have always appreciated your recaps. That being said, get your factual opinions out of here and come back when you realize we’re obviously a 12 win team. 

 

;)

 

Sorry sir.  16-0!

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Not saying it doesn't nor am I saying I dislike him as a coach.  Quite the opposite in fact.  I'm merely seeing the surprising new, unexplainable trend. 

 

And if you want to set the bar at Gase, then we are in a whole lot of trouble 😋

 

Sorry sir.  16-0!

 

Much better. 

 

All kidding aside, I really have no idea what this year will look like.

 

The McD blowouts that you mentioned is that rattle coming from under the hood of your car that you ignore for 6 months cause if you don’t pay attention to it it can’t hurt you- so thanks for reminding me.

 

I said in another thread that I feel like we’re either gonna be terrible and have a miserable season, or else we’re gonna blow the top off- mainly cause I see Allen either lighting it up or flaming hard. Either way, i have way more excitement than I usually do, which is nice and also maybe a disaster waiting to happen.

 

in fact, in the past two years, my most excitement levels have always been followed by devastation:

 

2017 going into the jets game that turned into a blowout.

2018 season opener.

2018 going into the Packers game after the Vikings game. 

Edited by whatdrought

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Posted (edited)

I don't really look at it on a game to game prediction basis..........but the overall schedule is about as easy as they could have hoped for.............that usually ends up working out accordingly........like the last two seasons where the Bills had soft finishes to their schedule and they took advantage of that.

 

There will be games that they win that everyone assumes right now that they will lose............much like @Minnesota last year.

 

I do agree that sweeping the Jets and Dolphins has been expected before under even more favorable circumstances and didn't happen.   Go back to 2007.......the Bills finished second in the AFC East and the Jets and Fish finished 4-12 and 1-15.    Bills fans almost universally assumed the rising Bills would sweep them both in 2008..........and the Bills ended up going 0-6 in the division and the Fish won the division at 11-5 and the Jets went 9-7. :lol:   

 

To me what it comes down to is that there are no excuses anymore............I don't care if certain teams look better on paper now..........we shouldn't have to rationalize why it's reasonable to lose games.........if you want to be a contender you have to take care of business.

 

It's McBeane's job to put a contender on the field that we don't have to make excuses for.    If they get off to a good start......and some of the teams on the schedule do not......then the narrative about which games they should win will change quickly.  

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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Less concerned w/ W/L’s as long as we make the Post Season. One of the League’s most informed, longest tenured and most respected voices, The Godfather, Gil Brandt, said this evening he “really believes the Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs this season”. 

That’s good enough for me!

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This makes sense to me, good, well thought out post.

 

As far as I am concerned 8-8 is probably where this team ends up even though I (like many others) am hoping for 10+.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

We are winning a patriot game this year

 

Don’t threaten me with a good time 

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8-8 would be a huge disappointment three years in to a new regime with the schedule they have.  Just start 2-0 and 10 wins is very possible

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1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

8-8 would be a huge disappointment three years in to a new regime with the schedule they have.  Just start 2-0 and 10 wins is very possible

 

I fully expect them to start 2-0 and still see 8-8.  

 

Hence, the 5-2 references. 

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6 hours ago, Virgil said:

If there's anything I'm the most scarred by in the past decade, it's the two 5-2 starts to the season where we missed the playoffs.  I remember the pure confidence believing we would make the playoffs as only an obsurdly small number of teams started like that and didn't make them.  That, plus numerous prime time losses, the Pats for the past twenty years, and Billsy things makes it really hard for me to predict a plus-.500 win season.  

 

I know all the reasons why everyone thinks we will win 9, possibly 10-11 game.  I see what they see.  But here's why I see 8.

 

1 - Blow-Out Losses.  Each season under McDermott, we've had more than a few blow-out losses for no excusable reason.  Games where we just don't show up at all.  I believe that's something that will continue to happen until it doesn't.

 

2 - We play the Pats twice and they are our Daddy until they aren't.

 

3 - No matter how much of a joke the Dolphins or Jets seem to be to me, we rarely sweep both in the same season.  We find a way to play to their level.  Even the season we made the playoffs, we barely beat the Dolphins both games.  The Jets, who were a much worse team than us a last year were one of the games we got blown out of.  

 

4 - Offenses can make a jump in the offseason, but usually not THAT big of a jump.  I know the Rams  just did it, but that's typically rare.  Also, when half of your receiving core is brand new, chemistry and rhythm takes time.  Same goes for an entirely new offensive line.  It's not about talent, it's about playing as a team.  It can take teams half a season or a whole season to click.  

 

5 - I don't think Ed Oliver was all we needed to improve our pass rush.  I've made it known I wanted Allen, but it's not about that.  Unless Murphy makes a big comeback, rookie DT's don't typically make that kind of impact their first year.  I think the current guess is 5 sacks, which would be a great season for him.  Either way, that's not going to be a huge difference maker.  I don't see the light magically turning on for Shaq either.  

 

6 - Allen looked fantastic after he came back from his injury, but as another post/article suggested, he still had serious accuracy issues.  Could he make that jump forward?  Yes.  Could he not?  Also yes.

 

In the NFL, unless you are a consistent top 5 team, it's truly any given Sunday and we the Bills until proven otherwise.  

 

To be clear again, I can see where all the 10-6 love is coming from and why it should happen.  But I also know the Bills doing Billsy things, remember those 5-2 starts, and how we find a way.

 

For those who want the break-down:

Jets x2 - Split

Dolphins x2 - Sweep them

Pats x2 - Swept by them

Division 3-3

@ Giants - Win

vs Cincy - Win (Only because it's the home and early in the season.  These games go either way against them)

@Titans - Either way (Billsy Loss)

vs Eagles - Loss

vs Skins - Win

vs Cleveland - Loss

vs Broncos - Win

@ Cowboys - Loss (primetime)

vs Ravens - Win because we do well against them at home or Loss because their defense just spanks us.  I feel like McD defense shuts down Lamar.  But we are Billsy....

@ Steelers - Loss

 

It comes down to the Titans and Ravens for me.  Should we win on paper, yes.  Do we do that usually, no.

 

Roast me!

 

I'm just going by last year and what would be considered blowout losses , I mean it's really no mystery! You're talking like you have no clue why we got blown out and it took me all but 5 minutes to tell you why. 

 

Simply put - Extreme dysfunction at the QB position . Nate Peterman ,Derek Anderson , extremely raw Josh Allen and oh yeah, an absolutely terrible OL and oh yeah , absolutely terrible WR . Once we cut ties with Holmes, Benjamin and Kerley , guess what ? No more blow outs! Not one. And that's with a raw rookies behind a joke of an OL throwing to an UDFA rookie , Zay and McKenzie who we got like week 10!

 

The Bears blowout they had 2 defensive TD , playing against Nate Peterman! Again, it's not a mystery as to why the blowouts occurred. Kinda common sense. Unfortunately we were rebuilding and were stuck with awful OL and WR but that all changed this off season. I wouldn't worry to much about blowouts and McDermott anymore. Again- NATE PETERMAN , Derek Anderson and a way to raw rookie Josh Allen prior to his injury. No blowouts when Josh returned. I'd bet there aren't any this year. I'm that confident in this coaching

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