Expectations for Josh Allen this year

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Gregg, everyone is entitle to their opinion, but just to be clear what I am extrapolating from the above is that other than an uptick in completion percentage after an end to 2018 that saw improvement and the Bills revamping about 7 positions around Josh on offense you truly expect him to be a worse QB than he was last year?

 

Not only that he hasn't grown from year one to year two, but that he actually regresses from a .833 TD/Int ration to .667?

 

 

It's entirely within the realm of possibility that that could happen.  It might not necessarily be reflected in his stats -- or even in the Bills record -- if the Bills' potential offensive improvement on the OL, running game, and receiving corps materializes but Allen has to improve his passing and his decision making regardless of whether or not his supporting cast is good or not.  The quality of play that's acceptable, even encouraging, in a rookie shouldn't still be the norm for a QB at the end of his second season as the starting QB.   If Allen isn't significantly better as a QB in December than he was in September -- even if his September was better than his rookie December -- that will be real cause for concern.  

 

NFL QBs tend to get better as they gain experience, but at some point, they hit a proverbial wall that defines the upwards limits of their ability.  "Busts" hit that wall early on, but most QBs get at least somewhat better in their second and third years as starters,  The better the QB, the longer they take to reach that limit.    QBs like P Manning, Brady, and Brees seem to never hit that wall.

 

14 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I don’t mean to call him dumb either. I’m sure he’s a smart kid. He just doesn’t have hardwired football instincts like some of these guys who have been life and death with the game since they were kids. He’s behind the curve.

 

I can’t see any reason why Josh won’t have multiple receivers go off in a game on a consistent basis. He did that later in the season last year. It just takes him longer to find the open guy because he wants them to really get open so he can gun it in as appose to having to lead the receiver as much and risk behind inaccurate (my working theory). He’ll get better at that too. But it’s that extra second he takes in the pocket to figure out where/how to throw that’s going to determine a lot of his career. Bet he can shave at least half of it off in the next few years, and for him given all his other gifts that might be enough.

 

I certainly hope you are wrong, VW82, because if you're right, then Allen will be another first round QB bust.   In order to be a genuine franchise QB, one who is elite or close to it, a QB has to absolutely possess "hardwired football instincts" that enable him to almost instantly recognize and process what he sees into action --  appropriate action (ie, a good choice).   The closer to the ideal Allen can come, the better QB he will be.  If he can't recognize and process what he sees on the field fast enough, he's just a Trent Edwards,  an EJ Manuel or a Tyrod Taylor.

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

I think Allen will learn to take the shorter routes more often; however, I believe he will always look to make the big play first. That just seems to be his mentality and, honestly, that's the kind of QB I want. My guess is that he will improve his completion %, but, he will likely stay in that 58 - 60% range. I am fine with that and I think he can be very successful in that range. Cam Newton was the MVP with a 59.8 completion percentage. 

 

I think it is more important that he have a TD% of 5+ and an INT% of under 3.

That's generally where I see things from an optimistic perspective. I guess I'll put it this way. I'm not convinced he's ever going to master the checkdown/short game craft. In a perfect world, that happens.

 

What I'm trying to figure out is how Allen can be successful if he only improves marginally in that area. There is definitely a chance with him. The skills he does bring to the table(arm strength/mobility) are ELITE. So can he be a franchise QB WITHOUT becoming super efficient? I think the answer is yes and Newton is a great example. As much as I critique the kid, there is no questioning his desire. So can that desire also set him apart from other super talented guys that didn't have the GREATEST short game? These are the questions that will start to be answered in 2019.

[papazoid]

either....individual stats wise cracks Top 15 in Total QBR  (which factors in his legs)

 

or gets the bills team wise to something over .500  like 9-7

[BBills88]

Completion Percentage in the Mid to high 60 % 
3500 to 4000 yards in the AIR

25 - 30 TD's  Passing

10 - 15 INT's most of those at the end of the first Half of games - (No INT in the PLAYOFFS!)

 

400 Rushing Yards

10 Rushing TD's

 

Sacked 15 - 20 times. (None in the playoffs)

[MJS]

I don't see why Allen couldn't get 20 passing TD's and 3,500 yards passing. Hopefully he keeps his INT's down. I imagine his completion percentage will improve and be around 60%. I think this is realistic.

 

Of course he'll also contribute on the ground. I bet he'll have 500+ rushing yards and 5+ rushing TD's.

[billsfan_34]

15 hours ago, Bangarang said:

3,300 yards, 16 td and 12 int on a 56% completion percentage is trash and likely means our offense is also trash yet again.

 

Fortunately, I think he’ll perform better than that. 

4,000 yards passing, 400 out of JA on the ground, 20 TD’s, 10 picks, 60 percent completion is where I would like to see things at- realistically I doubt it thou.

[billsfan1959]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would love to see the overall yardage numbers push 220 or so a game and also don't think it's necessary for Allen to be a 60+percent passer. The overall yardage numbers reaching NFL levels would feel like progress. If he's taking shots and making plays, the YP/A will alleviate some of the efficiency issues. 

 

When I think about progress for Allen, I think overall production is gonna be the barometer. I wouldn't feel great going forward if there were multiple <200 yard passing games. The way the team is constructed, they could probably win 8 or even 9 games without Allen taking that leap. It just wouldn't feel like "success."

 

Line is better, receivers are not great but improved, and he's got a year of experience. I agree that we're gonna find out what we've got with Allen in 2019. It's not the be all end all, but the 2nd year is extremely important in terms of figuring out if you've got a talented QB or a great QB.

 

26 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's generally where I see things from an optimistic perspective. I guess I'll put it this way. I'm not convinced he's ever going to master the checkdown/short game craft. In a perfect world, that happens.

 

What I'm trying to figure out is how Allen can be successful if he only improves marginally in that area. There is definitely a chance with him. The skills he does bring to the table(arm strength/mobility) are ELITE. So can he be a franchise QB WITHOUT becoming super efficient? I think the answer is yes and Newton is a great example. As much as I critique the kid, there is no questioning his desire. So can that desire also set him apart from other super talented guys that didn't have the GREATEST short game? These are the questions that will start to be answered in 2019.

Agree. The improvements they made on offense are designed to play to his strengths. He should have a better play action game, more time to make those intermediate throws, better speed, athleticism and reliability at the receiver positions, rely less on his legs, and he shouldn't have to carry most of the offensive burden. I would be very disappointed if he averaged less than 220 yards per game, and didn't improve his completion %, TD%, and INT%.

 

I don't think the short game is ever going to be his strength either. The question will be, "Can he master it enough (1) to know those moments when it is most advantageous / critical to take those short throws, (2) to complement his skill set, and (3) to take him to that true franchise level.

 

It will be a telling year.

[John from Riverside]

I would just like to see our running backs and pass catcher's scoring the touchdowns......yes...Josh Allen can do it and its a weapon.....but EVERY time he takes off and defenders close in on him I hold my breath because so much relies on him......yes we have a veteran QB behind him but lets be honest....we REALLY dont want to see Barkely for more then a few games a season......the team goes as Josh Allen goes

 

He has a cannon - let him use it

 

We have brought in blockers.....LET THEM BLOCK

 

we have invested in the offensive talent of this team overall.....lets use it.

 

And when nothing is open and everything is taken away....let him scamper for 1st downs to keep the offense on the field

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

I don’t mean to call him dumb either. I’m sure he’s a smart kid. He just doesn’t have hardwired football instincts like some of these guys who have been life and death with the game since they were kids. He’s behind the curve.

 

I can’t see any reason why Josh won’t have multiple receivers go off in a game on a consistent basis. He did that later in the season last year. It just takes him longer to find the open guy because he wants them to really get open so he can gun it in as appose to having to lead the receiver as much and risk behind inaccurate (my working theory). He’ll get better at that too. But it’s that extra second he takes in the pocket to figure out where/how to throw that’s going to determine a lot of his career. Bet he can shave at least half of it off in the next few years, and for him given all his other gifts that might be enough.

I really dont agree with this assessment. I didn't see anything that suggested to me that he doesn't have the right hard wired instincts.

 

First, he moves well in the pocket.  Good pocket awareness. Good sense of when to bail out.  

 

Second, when he scrambles, he finds open receivers well.

 

Third, his comfort level in the huddle and at the line was high from the day he took the field.  He doesn't get rattled. 

 

He played last year behind a horrible line with pretty poor receivers, with out having had in depth practice e in training camp, and he still looked like a winner.  

 

Watching him last season, I often thought that he can be every bit as spectacular as Mahomes.  Different style, but just as spectacular. 

 

Nothing wrong with his instincts. 

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

I don't think the short game is ever going to be his strength.

I think he is going to surprise you

 

I think he is going to be terrific in the short game, which is what is going to make him a star.  Once he is effective in the short game, he is absolutely going to kill teams with moderate range and deep balls, because he will see a lot of open guys down the field. 

 

Beasley alone will catch 80 passes.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

15 hours ago, mead107 said:

19-0 Baby 

You spelt 19-0 or Bust incorrectly 

[oldmanfan]

I want to see evidence that the game is slowing down for him such that he makes quicker, definitive decisions with the ball.  Evidence of that for me will be a decreased number of runs and decreased number of sacks, which speak to him not trusting what he saw and either bailing out a nd running more quickly or staying too long in the pocket to try and make something happen.  I'd like to see more short throws to his safety valve guys, and let them gain YAC.  I won't put specific numbers up in a vacuum without knowing what's in Daboll's head, but in general a 2:1 completion/interception ratio would be good.  Obviously everyone would like to see a high completion rate, etc. 

[VW82]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

I certainly hope you are wrong, VW82, because if you're right, then Allen will be another first round QB bust.   In order to be a genuine franchise QB, one who is elite or close to it, a QB has to absolutely possess "hardwired football instincts" that enable him to almost instantly recognize and process what he sees into action --  appropriate action (ie, a good choice).   The closer to the ideal Allen can come, the better QB he will be.  If he can't recognize and process what he sees on the field fast enough, he's just a Trent Edwards,  an EJ Manuel or a Tyrod Taylor.

 

 

I think you can still be a star QB even if your decision making and timing is a little suspect. We've seen Vick do it. Favre was the best player in the world for a couple years. Cam was MVP. Allen has escape-ability + a crazy arm combo that few others have ever possessed. 

 

Again, I'm not saying he can't improve with his pre-snap reads, and making quick, correct decisions with the football; but right now he isn't anywhere near that type of QB (to be realistic). It would seem like a tough ask for him to become something he's not. I think it's a perfectly fair ask of him to continue making explosive plays with his god given ability and improved throwing mechanics. Eventually, he'll gain enough experience to hard wire in more of those "football instincts" (i.e. quick decisions) and won't be as reliant on his natural gifts.    

[VW82]

27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I really dont agree with this assessment. I didn't see anything that suggested to me that he doesn't have the right hard wired instincts...

 

 

I just meant he doesn't diagnose the play quickly/correctly enough and get the ball out. His story about being a normal farm kid who played lots of sports and had other responsibilities totally fits. Compare that to other players who enter the league having spent most of their physical and mental energy throughout childhood playing and thinking about football, playing Madden, etc. So Allen is a little behind from that stand point and it shows on the field. Watch Baker, then watch Allen. 

 

Josh will get better at that stuff though with more reps, and in the meantime his physical gifts are special and will keep us in or win us a bunch of games. The extra offensive talent around him will help tremendously.  

Edited May 14, 2019 by VW82

[billsfan1959]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think he is going to surprise you

 

I think he is going to be terrific in the short game, which is what is going to make him a star.  Once he is effective in the short game, he is absolutely going to kill teams with moderate range and deep balls, because he will see a lot of open guys down the field. 

 

Beasley alone will catch 80 passes.  

It is not that I believe he doesn't have the ability to be very effective in the short game. When I say it will never be his strength, I am referring to the fact that the 15-25 yd range is where his strength will be. I agree if he becomes very effective in the short game, it will make his real strengths that much better.

[Figster]

19 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I just meant he doesn't diagnose the play quickly/correctly enough and get the ball out. His story about being a normal farm kid who played lots of sports and had other responsibilities totally fits. Compare that to other players who enter the league having spent most of their physical and mental energy throughout childhood playing and thinking about football, playing Madden, etc. So Allen is a little behind from that stand point and it shows on the field. Watch Baker, then watch Allen. 

 

Josh will get better at that stuff though with more reps, and in the meantime his physical gifts are special and will keep us in or win us a bunch of games. The extra offensive talent around him will help tremendously.  

Nice reply,

 

My expectations are very high because along with the boatload of talent , Josh Allen has a good head on his shoulders and protects the football well.

 

Not hardwired yet , I like that assessment. (Barkley, hardwired)

Edited May 14, 2019 by Figster

[Mat68]

Ideally, more passing and less running.  3500 yards 20 tds are two categories to strive to surpass.  With better receiving threats out of the backfield, and underneath, it should result in an increase in yards and percentage.  I'm high on Allen and think he can realistically do it.  If Allen shows that kind of improvement Buffalo is in the playoffs.

[Shaw66]

39 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

It is not that I believe he doesn't have the ability to be very effective in the short game. When I say it will never be his strength, I am referring to the fact that the 15-25 yd range is where his strength will be. I agree if he becomes very effective in the short game, it will make his real strengths that much better.

Oh, yeah!.  I think he's going to be deadly in that 15-25 yard range - that will be his strength.    He's really accurate there, and he gets the ball there in the hurry.   It's the short game that will open up those passes.

[eball]

If find it amusing, if not downright annoying, that fans claim to know whether or not Josh is capable of making quick decisions as an NFL QB after one season behind one of the worst lines in the league.

 

Can we give the kid another year or two before coming to these conclusions, particularly after seeing the improvement over the second half of the season?

[Mat68]

Ideally, more passing and less running.  3500 yards 20 tds are two categories to strive to surpass.  With better receiving threats out of the backfield, and underneath, it should result in an increase in yards and percentage.  I'm high on Allen and think he can realistically do it.  If Allen shows that kind of improvement Buffalo is in the playoffs.  

5 minutes ago, eball said:

If find it amusing, if not downright annoying, that fans claim to know whether or not Josh is capable of making quick decisions as an NFL QB after one season behind one of the worst lines in the league.

 

Can we give the kid another year or two before coming to these conclusions, particularly after seeing the improvement over the second half of the season?

Those games after the injury I would like to see any Qb in the league do better in that situation.  I think the sky is the limit.  With all the additions to the line, Wrs, and Te, the part I think is most over looked is Allen getting all the reps in training camp.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 5/14/2019 at 2:49 AM, Thurman#1 said:

I don't know if I'd feel great at that. But not bad. It would probably be real progress.

 

You didn't do it, Hapless, but many on here are confusing win-loss record for a QB stat. It's not. That's a team stat. Again, the real name for that stat is "TEAM record in games started by this QB (regular season)."

 

For Josh, I'm hoping to see a bit better than your YPG. That completion % would be a real improvement, and for his second year I'd be happy.

 

I hope guys like VW82 above are wrong in thinking Josh will never have a high completion percentage, but I think that's one very possible scenario, that he turns into a kind of Cam Newton type. I hope that cleaning up his mechanics will let him go far beyond that, but I'm far from sure of it.

 

I Hear You on the W/L record being a team stat.  The place where they're interconnected of course, is that much of the season we had a D that was good enough to win IMO.  [We need them to take a step in run D, but a team can't win when the O gives up 4-5 turnovers].  So to improve our W-L, we clearly need our offense to take a step.  And as the QB goes, so goes the offense.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Those games after the injury I would like to see any Qb in the league do better in that situation.  I think the sky is the limit.  With all the additions to the line, Wrs, and Te, the part I think is most over looked is Allen getting all the reps in training camp.  

 

Make no mistake, Mat68.  The two are related: the QB looked worse because the line sucked, but the line also sucked because the QB wasn't making quick decisions.  That's not intended as a knock on Allen - most rookie QB don't and it's a Good Thing, it says they have functional QB neurons that are firing and saying "where's the safety? is it a Trap?"

 

But yeah, a bunch of QB in the league would have looked a little better and done a bit more because they would have made faster reads and got the ball out to the open guy quicker.  It's not an accident that the Bills with Barkley at QB put up their highest yardage.  Nothing special about Barkley, just a vet QB who knew what he's seeing and still has enough arm to get it done (Anderson would be an example of a vet who knew what he's seeing and didn't have enough arm to get it done)

 

The silliness is all the stuff assuming he can't/won't take a step there.  Some QB do, some QB don't, and the only sure way to know is to play 'em.

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

If the offense scores 3 TD's per game we should win a good chunk of our games. 

[Bruce Harper]

Full disclosure:  as you may have guessed from my user name, I'm a Jets fan.

 

I didn't think much of Allen's college career but was impressed by what I saw from him last year. Obviously, his physical tools are unparalleled.  But he needs to get his completion percentage into the high fifties, at the least, and get closer to a two to one TD to interception ratio.  Even with the Bills' very good draft and off-season, the Bills are going to go as far as Allen takes them. 

 

I like Darnold better, but if Allen plays well, the Bills will take over the AFC east over the next few years, due in large part to the Jets' mediocre front office and their poor drafts over the past several years.  But if Darnold breaks out and Allen doesn't, things will swing the Jets' way in the division.   It will be fun to watch.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Bruce Harper

[Bruce Harper]

55 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

Full disclosure:  as you may have guessed from my user name, I'm a Jets fan.

 

I didn't think much of Allen's college career but was impressed by what I saw from him last year. Obviously, his physical tools are unparalleled.  But he needs to get his completion percentage into the high fifties, at the least, and get closer to a two to one TD to interception ratio.  Even with the Bills' very good draft and off-season, the Bills are going to go as far as Allen takes them. 

 

I like Darnold better, but if Allen plays well, the Bills will take over the AFC east over the next few years, due in large part to the Jets' mediocre front office and their poor drafts over the past several years.  But if Darnold breaks out and Allen doesn't, things will swing the Jets' way in the division.   It will be fun to watch.

 

The Jets just fired Maccagnan, even as I was posting the above.  Would start a thread but I don't have the privileges.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Bruce Harper

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Bruce Harper said:

Full disclosure:  as you may have guessed from my user name, I'm a Jets fan.

 

I didn't think much of Allen's college career but was impressed by what I saw from him last year. Obviously, his physical tools are unparalleled.  But he needs to get his completion percentage into the high fifties, at the least, and get closer to a two to one TD to interception ratio.  Even with the Bills' very good draft and off-season, the Bills are going to go as far as Allen takes them. 

 

I like Darnold better, but if Allen plays well, the Bills will take over the AFC east over the next few years, due in large part to the Jets' mediocre front office and their poor drafts over the past several years.  But if Darnold breaks out and Allen doesn't, things will swing the Jets' way in the division.   It will be fun to watch.

 

LOL   kind of funny that ^ 

 

Who threw a PICK 6 on his first NFL pass?  Not Josh Allen.

Is a 17 to 15 TD / INT ratio 2 to 1?  

 

the Blockhead QB in Joysey has as much or more to prove himself. 

[Shaw66]

Shady you could have been Kinder but I have to agree with you. I think by the end of the season it was clear that the bills had the best quarterback in the draft.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Shady you could have been Kinder but I have to agree with you. I think by the end of the season it was clear that the bills had the best quarterback in the draft.

 

LOL 

But

But

I WAS being kind!!!!! 

 

The blockhead comment did seem a bit harsh   but what I meant to portray was his physical appearance  

 

  

52 minutes ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

The Jets just fired Maccagnan, even as I was posting the above.  Would start a thread but I don't have the privileges.

Yolo has taken care of that  and its on FIRE 

Edited May 15, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[LSHMEAB]

9 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

Full disclosure:  as you may have guessed from my user name, I'm a Jets fan.

 

I assumed you were either a Phillies fan or a disgruntled Nats fan.

[Rocket94]

It just seems hard to tell, but considering the improved OL, more weapons for Allen, and a marginal improvement on the defense, the Bills could conceivably win 9 games. One more good draft and FA's and they are getting close.

[RocCityRoller]

3650 yds passing

56% completion %

28 TDs (Some wow throws)

12 INT (some head scratchers)

 

700 yds rushing

6 TD

2 Fumbles (trying too hard)

 

The Favre like comparisons abound, like I said a year ago... ?

but TBD called me an Idiot for the comparison.

 

JA is Brett Favre in the making, I stand by it now like I did back then.

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by RocCityRoller

[Bruce Harper]

On 5/15/2019 at 8:42 PM, LSHMEAB said:

I assumed you were either a Phillies fan or a disgruntled Nats fan.

 

Bruce, not Bryce, Harper was an undrafted scat back who had a nice career for the Jets in the 70s. One of my favorites as a kid. 

[ganesh]

On 5/15/2019 at 5:55 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I Hear You on the W/L record being a team stat.  The place where they're interconnected of course, is that much of the season we had a D that was good enough to win IMO.  [We need them to take a step in run D, but a team can't win when the O gives up 4-5 turnovers].  So to improve our W-L, we clearly need our offense to take a step.  And as the QB goes, so goes the offense.

 

Last year we neither stopped the run or  ran the ball effectively.  When we do that our team as  a whole will improve.  The question is  "Has Beane provided enough resources to improve those two aspects of the team?"...September will tell us.

[ricko1112]

On 5/13/2019 at 9:43 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

On the one hand this article from USAToday BillsWire:  expect Allen to be slightly better than Blake Bortles

"Here was Bortles’ stat line from 2018: 13 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, 209.1 yards per game. Bortles started 12 games last year and played in 13 overall. If Bortles were to average this number for the entire season, he would have finished with 3,346 yards passing. ......

 With Allen, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to approach Bortles-like numbers. .......a conservatively realistic stat line for Allen is a season of 3,300 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and completing 56 percent of his passes."

 

How would you feel about that, TBD'ians?

 

On the other hand, then there's this from NFL.com's Michael Robinson picking Josh Allen as the 2nd year QB winning the most games:
"2019 is Josh Allen's year to shine. He'll lead the Bills to an 11-5 record and playoff berth. .....I really like how GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have built this team from the trenches out, adding center Mitch Morse, guard Quinton Spain and rookie guard/tackle Cody Ford on offense, as well as an aggressive pass rusher in first-round draft pick Ed Oliver. The Bills' big offseason additions will allow them to play a physical brand of football. Buffalo won't be flashy but will surprise a lot of teams this season. "

 

Obviously I love that prediction, but is it realistic?

 

The Bills had 3 losses by 7, 4, and 4 points last year which given different outcomes on a few plays, could have been wins

(of course, we had close wins that could have been losses too).  So it's not a huge stretch of the imagination that given some improvement, our record could have been 9-7.  We also had 6, arguably 7, blowout losses.  3 of them were in Josh Allen's first 4 games, including one where the score was out of hand when he came in.  3 of them were when he was injured.

 

Thoughts?

In McDermott's 3rd year, I myself want to see the team take a clear step.  We've been oscillating between 6-10 and 9-7 for 20 years now.  Yep, 1999 was the last time the Bills saw double-digits in the W column.  That's what I want to see.

 

As far as Allen, I want to see him pushing 60% completions.  58%, at least Bortles like.   I also want to see pushing 220 ypg (that would be 3500 yds) and a 1.5% TD/INT ratio.  I'd feel great about his progress if he ends the year close.

 

Allen was pretty bad last year as a passer. Worse than Tyrod Taylor even... It looks like people are high on him because of his rushing yards. In reality, he only had 1 decent game all season. It's tough to see why people are so high on him.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

52 minutes ago, ricko1112 said:

Allen was pretty bad last year as a passer. Worse than Tyrod Taylor even... It looks like people are high on him because of his rushing yards. In reality, he only had 1 decent game all season. It's tough to see why people are so high on him.

coming from a patsie** fan, this post is expected.

one that can and will be seen as nothing but bull####.

[Victory Formation]

8 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

 

Bruce, not Bryce, Harper was an undrafted scat back who had a nice career for the Jets in the 70s. One of my favorites as a kid. 

Thanks for stopping by. The way I see Darnold and the Jets is the way I saw Romo and the Cowboys, although I think the Cowboys are better ran. Darnold reminds me a lot of Romo. He very well may be a Pro Bowl QB but ultimately I think the Jets are so dysfunctional that I don't believe you guys will ever enter the promised land. In my mind's eye, I do think you have a good future at QB. In the end I just see us as having a much more refined FO. Beane is a brainiac at GM and a brilliant mind. Allen was my second rated guy behind Mayfield based off of potential not because of where he's at. Darnold is much more pro ready and although he has a high ceiling, it is not as high as Allen's. I think both the Browns, Jets and Bills all picked good QBs. I feel Rosen will be a journeyman and I think Jackson will fail. 

[John from Riverside]

I expect him to be better....I just dont know how much better

[Bruce Harper]

3 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Thanks for stopping by. The way I see Darnold and the Jets is the way I saw Romo and the Cowboys, although I think the Cowboys are better ran. Darnold reminds me a lot of Romo. He very well may be a Pro Bowl QB but ultimately I think the Jets are so dysfunctional that I don't believe you guys will ever enter the promised land. In my mind's eye, I do think you have a good future at QB. In the end I just see us as having a much more refined FO. Beane is a brainiac at GM and a brilliant mind. Allen was my second rated guy behind Mayfield based off of potential not because of where he's at. Darnold is much more pro ready and although he has a high ceiling, it is not as high as Allen's. I think both the Browns, Jets and Bills all picked good QBs. I feel Rosen will be a journeyman and I think Jackson will fail. 

 

We'll see how it plays out.  If the Jets can hire a good personnel guy and draft some supporting players (OL) for Sam, I think he will excel.  I see the similarities with Romo.  I'm just hoping that he can be Romo without all the fourth quarter interceptions.  He finished games strong in college, for the most part and he wants to be great.

 

Like you said, Allen has the best tools of the bunch.  I don't claim to be an expert but I think he will need to improve on his accuracy to reach his very high ceiling and that can be harder than it sounds.  It will be fun to watch Josh and Sam play each other twice a year.

 

Agree about Rosen.  He can spin the ball but does not seem to be a hard worker or a leader.  Also, can't move all that well and has already had a couple of concussions.  His family has dough so one or two more and he may decide it's not worth it. 

[Shaw66]

On 5/15/2019 at 8:32 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Make no mistake, Mat68.  The two are related: the QB looked worse because the line sucked, but the line also sucked because the QB wasn't making quick decisions.  That's not intended as a knock on Allen - most rookie QB don't and it's a Good Thing, it says they have functional QB neurons that are firing and saying "where's the safety? is it a Trap?"

 

But yeah, a bunch of QB in the league would have looked a little better and done a bit more because they would have made faster reads and got the ball out to the open guy quicker.  It's not an accident that the Bills with Barkley at QB put up their highest yardage.  Nothing special about Barkley, just a vet QB who knew what he's seeing and still has enough arm to get it done (Anderson would be an example of a vet who knew what he's seeing and didn't have enough arm to get it done)

 

The silliness is all the stuff assuming he can't/won't take a step there.  Some QB do, some QB don't, and the only sure way to know is to play 'em.

I've been away from this thread for a while, came back and read this.   I gotta say, it's one of the best looks at exactly how well/poorly Allen played.   Allen got the Bills everything Allen could, he just wasn't good enough as you describe - not because he isn't good but because he has a lot to learn.  A veteran QB would have gotten more out of the team.  That's what Fitz is - every place he goes, he threatens more talented young guys because Fitz understands what to do all the time and does it to the best of his ability.  Allen has some big steps to take.  

 

I've always been confident he'll take those steps, because his approach almost seems to be that he's a disciple, learning the ways of the master.   When the Bills tell him to throw more of the short high percentage stuff, he's going to do it because, well, his approach is to follow the master.   So he's going to do it - he has the physical skills to do it, and he has the learning capacity to do it.  There's nothing to stop him.   

 

But that is truly easier said than done.  So although I'm extremely confident we're looking at a star in the making, it's all just talk until he does it.   Yes, he needs better line play and better receiver play, and there's reason to hope he'll get it this year, he still has to do what he has to do or it all adds up to nothing.  

Edited May 17, 2019 by Shaw66

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I've been away from this thread for a while, came back and read this.   I gotta say, it's one of the best looks at exactly how well/poorly Allen played.   Allen got the Bills everything Allen could, he just wasn't good enough as you describe - not because he isn't good but because he has a lot to learn.  A veteran QB would have gotten more out of the team.  That's what Fitz is - every place he goes, he threatens more talented young guys because Fitz understands what to do all the time and does it to the best of his ability.  Allen has some big steps to take.  

 

I've always been confident he'll take those steps, because his approach almost seems to be that he's a disciple, learning the ways of the master.   When the Bills tell him to throw more of the short high percentage stuff, he's going to do it because, well, his approach is to follow the master.   So he's going to do it - he has the physical skills to do it, and he has the learning capacity to do it.  There's nothing to stop him.   

 

But that is truly easier said than done.  So although I'm extremely confident we're looking at a star in the making, it's all just talk until he does it.   Yes, he needs better line play and better receiver play, and there's reason to hope he'll get it this year, he still has to do what he has to do or it all adds up to nothing.  

Couple good posts (you & Hapless). I’ll add that I’m a bit concerned how many of us are expecting Dan Marino for year 2. Even ‘God’ Kelly took a few years to finally ‘get’ NFL football, and that was after 2 years of playing intramural ball in Houston. He’s eager, we’re eager. But he’s had a total of 5 actual hours* playing QB for keeps in the League.

 

It takes time.

 

*considering 30/30 minutes TOP.

[Billzfan23]

On 5/13/2019 at 10:03 PM, Happy Gilmore said:

10-6 is probably realistic.  Let's say for arguments sake we could have been 8-8 last year, 10-6 is a logical progression up, even with a lot of new players.  I also think Josh Allen will be a lot more comfortable running the offense since he will be the designated starter and get most of the reps in camp/practice.  Daboll has a lot on his shoulders bringing everyone up to speed and on the same page, but if he can do this, a Wildcard spot is not out of the question.

 

On defense, the biggest question mark is DE.  Need someone other than Hughes to be an aggressive pass rusher.  I'm really hoping Shaq Lawson takes a step up and adds pass rushing ability to his run stopping ability.

I think you have to try to go game by game through the schedule and find 10 or 11 wins in that slate.  I realistically see about 8 or 9, tops.  But, like the Vikings game last year, there could be some surprise wins thrown in there, too.