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Hapless Bills Fan

Expectations for Josh Allen this year

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It’s early, but I don’t believe any status quo stats or qb metrics do any justice when applied to Josh Allen. The kid is simply a freak. Off the charts. Unique. Enigmatic. After the LB Leap, every team employed a spy. Yet he riddled defenses every game with his quick decision to run based off one read. His speed, quickness, jukes, strength and vision literally embarrassed multi-millionaires grabbing at air, stopping from a fake pitch and getting blown up by contact. His arm velocity and his belief in this otherworldly capability makes the entire field his options every play from anywhere on the field. I’m convinced already that no metric yet devised can tell you anything pro or con about Allen. I don’t recall a time -even in the SB era where converting a 3rd & 18 had as high a possibility as it does with him.

 

He absolutely loves the game, works every day to get better and learn more so the next time he’s improvising, he’ll have new things to freak everybody out about. Will he be this fast , strong and elusive in year 12? Probably not. But no ones ever been this fast, strong and elusive at 22 either.

 

In short, to Hell with measurable metrics regarding Josh Allen. Enjoy the ride.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Bangarang said:

3,300 yards, 16 td and 12 int on a 56% completion percentage is trash and likely means our offense is also trash yet again.

 

Fortunately, I think he’ll perform better than that. 

 

I’ve never known you to be this optimistic...

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Posted (edited)

to win 2 out of every 3 games against any team not the Pats would be a great step forward.  so that means 9-7.   tough to see 10 over all wins or making the playoffs when you start every season 0-2 in your division.   Bills would need to split the Pats games to make the playoffs and get to 10 wins.  I don't see Josh Allen beating Brady this season after looking so bad against them last season.   Bills look like a better than .500 team, and definitely on the rise for 2020.   One more good draft and FA period and with continued stability at OC and DC and and they should be ready to contend for the division.  

 

Trust the Process. 

Edited by ProcessTruster

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8 hours ago, mead107 said:

19-0 Baby 

Didnt see it till this morning. You beat me to it!

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2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

It’s early, but I don’t believe any status quo stats or qb metrics do any justice when applied to Josh Allen. The kid is simply a freak. Off the charts. Unique. Enigmatic. After the LB Leap, every team employed a spy. Yet he riddled defenses every game with his quick decision to run based off one read. His speed, quickness, jukes, strength and vision literally embarrassed multi-millionaires grabbing at air, stopping from a fake pitch and getting blown up by contact. His arm velocity and his belief in this otherworldly capability makes the entire field his options every play from anywhere on the field. I’m convinced already that no metric yet devised can tell you anything pro or con about Allen. I don’t recall a time -even in the SB era where converting a 3rd & 18 had as high a possibility as it does with him.

 

He absolutely loves the game, works every day to get better and learn more so the next time he’s improvising, he’ll have new things to freak everybody out about. Will he be this fast , strong and elusive in year 12? Probably not. But no ones ever been this fast, strong and elusive at 22 either.

 

In short, to Hell with measurable metrics regarding Josh Allen. Enjoy the ride.

 

 

Two takes from that. 1) where were our receivers? 2) OUR OL WAS HORRIBLE! 

 

Oh yeah, 3)he can run!

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I'm looking more at how Allen responds/performs in certain situations.

 

I want him to be clutch.  I want him to be one of those QBs about whom people say, "if there's under two minutes and you need to go 80 yards to get into field goal range, I want this guy."

 

I want him to play smart football.  See the field better.  Check down when he should.  Run only when he has to.  Throw it out of bounds at the right times.  Throw receivers open.

 

As long as the Bills win games, I'm not concerned about individual stats.

 

I would, however, like to see him get to 60% completion percentage just to quiet a bunch of crusaders.

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My expectation is that he doesn't lead the team in rushing. Second place was Shady and he was 117 yards behind. Can't have that. We will be better this year, IF Josh stays healthy. I would prefer he throws some of these balls away instead of taking off and running. Trust the defense to do their job and live to play another series.

9-7.

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I know there are a lot of folks who are furious we didn’t take a WR in the draft. But, I think having Brown and Foster on the outside is going to be a huge factor for JA’s development. 

 

They are obviously making a push to improve the TE situation and I think the focus of the passing game will be to keep teams honest with outside speed and live on underneath throws to TEs as well as Zay/Beasley. Both Beane and McD have made reference to Josh needing to take the sure thing more often.

 

I’m expecting 3600-4000 yards, a completion % of 57-59 and a TD/INT ratio of 1.5/1. The pieces are there, it’s up to Josh now.

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8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

On the one hand this article from USAToday BillsWire:  expect Allen to be slightly better than Blake Bortles

"Here was Bortles’ stat line from 2018: 13 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, 209.1 yards per game. Bortles started 12 games last year and played in 13 overall. If Bortles were to average this number for the entire season, he would have finished with 3,346 yards passing. ......

 With Allen, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to approach Bortles-like numbers. .......a conservatively realistic stat line for Allen is a season of 3,300 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and completing 56 percent of his passes."

 

How would you feel about that, TBD'ians?

 

On the other hand, then there's this from NFL.com's Michael Robinson picking Josh Allen as the 2nd year QB winning the most games:
"2019 is Josh Allen's year to shine. He'll lead the Bills to an 11-5 record and playoff berth. .....I really like how GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have built this team from the trenches out, adding center Mitch Morse, guard Quinton Spain and rookie guard/tackle Cody Ford on offense, as well as an aggressive pass rusher in first-round draft pick Ed Oliver. The Bills' big offseason additions will allow them to play a physical brand of football. Buffalo won't be flashy but will surprise a lot of teams this season. "

 

Obviously I love that prediction, but is it realistic?

 

The Bills had 3 losses by 7, 4, and 4 points last year which given different outcomes on a few plays, could have been wins

(of course, we had close wins that could have been losses too).  So it's not a huge stretch of the imagination that given some improvement, our record could have been 9-7.  We also had 6, arguably 7, blowout losses.  3 of them were in Josh Allen's first 4 games, including one where the score was out of hand when he came in.  3 of them were when he was injured.

 

Thoughts?

In McDermott's 3rd year, I myself want to see the team take a clear step.  We've been oscillating between 6-10 and 9-7 for 20 years now.  Yep, 1999 was the last time the Bills saw double-digits in the W column.  That's what I want to see.

 

As far as Allen, I want to see him pushing 60% completions.  58%, at least Bortles like.   I also want to see pushing 220 ypg (that would be 3500 yds) and a 1.5% TD/INT ratio.  I'd feel great about his progress if he ends the year close.

 

 

I want to see Allen make significant improvement in his mechanics and in his decision making.  I want to see that improvement continue throughout the season so that he's a significantly better passer at the end of the season than he started out.  I want to see him make more clutch passing plays in the Red Zone.   I want to see him run less but more judiciously (and therefore, more effectively).    I think if he can do that, his completion percentage will be 60 or better and his TD ratio in the 2/1 range.  The hard numbers for passing yards and TDs will depend upon what offensive philosophy the Bills concentrate on (run or pass) and how successful the team has been in improving Allen's supporting cast but the percentages should be about 60 and 2/1.

 

How many games the Bills win depends upon the success of all three phases of the game, and are largely outside of Allen's control.   He won't control whether the Bills field a run-heavy offense which will lower his passing stats or the defense lays too many eggs or the special teams suck again.  He's not the guy doing the hiring and firing.  He's not the one making the game plans or the play calls.  All he can do is his job, and if he improves in that role, then he'll be successful whether his team is or not.

 

PS - I didn't include improving his leadership in what Allen needs to do because I think he's already established himself as a leader.  He needs to improve his play enough so that his leadership doesn't turn into foolish bravado.

 

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9 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

10-6 is probably realistic.  Let's say for arguments sake we could have been 8-8 last year, 10-6 is a logical progression up, even with a lot of new players.  I also think Josh Allen will be a lot more comfortable running the offense since he will be the designated starter and get most of the reps in camp/practice.  Daboll has a lot on his shoulders bringing everyone up to speed and on the same page, but if he can do this, a Wildcard spot is not out of the question.

 

On defense, the biggest question mark is DE.  Need someone other than Hughes to be an aggressive pass rusher.  I'm really hoping Shaq Lawson takes a step up and adds pass rushing ability to his run stopping ability.

That certainly wouldnt hurt but since when are our deficiencies against the pass?  We had the #1 rated pass D last season.  We need to continue to improve against the run.

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1 hour ago, Gugny said:

I'm looking more at how Allen responds/performs in certain situations.

 

I want him to be clutch.  I want him to be one of those QBs about whom people say, "if there's under two minutes and you need to go 80 yards to get into field goal range, I want this guy."

 

I want him to play smart football.  See the field better.  Check down when he should.  Run only when he has to.  Throw it out of bounds at the right times.  Throw receivers open.

 

As long as the Bills win games, I'm not concerned about individual stats.

 

I would, however, like to see him get to 60% completion percentage just to quiet a bunch of crusaders.

Totally agree with this. Everything you just described reminds me of Big Ben early on in his career. 

 

His numbers weren’t eye popping. I actually tend to think he rode a really good defense most of the time that gave him the luxury of being fairly average for about 3 quarters of every game. But from 05 to about 2010 was there a dude in the NFL that I wanted more with the game on the line? Probably not. Just so clutch. 

 

 

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Runner up defensive rookie of the year, but why are you asking about a LB on another team? 😉

 

Oh The QB ... stay healthy, big all around overall improvement from being number one going into camp and getting reps with who he will actually be throwing to all year. Make good use of the extra time he should have in the pocket to make reads. Only run if it's there, or to keep them guessing. Double the holy crap did i just see a Bills QB make that throw moments.

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He was at or near the top in dropped passes, spikes/throwaways and depth of target.  All those things distort completion% to the bad and make it an abnormal metric for him.  He is very good at short yardage/goal line situational QB runs whether a draw, reaching over the top or a power run with an assist from behind.  So, TD passes are not such an important number.  Seriously, I do not care how TDs are scored and I do not know why any Bills fan should. 

 

Given all that, my crystal ball predicts his completion % will be closer to 60%, with combined rushing and passing TDs around 30, total TOs around 18 and total passing yards between 3600 and 4000.  The Bills offense will be closer to the middle of the pack but perform well in redzone situations and average 24+ points per game with any defensive or ST scoring being a bonus.  

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54 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

That certainly wouldnt hurt but since when are our deficiencies against the pass?  We had the #1 rated pass D last season.  We need to continue to improve against the run.

 

The defensive backfield more than held its own and got little help from the pass rush.  I think we have to do a better job at getting to the opposing QB, which helps the DBs not only defend passes but also create turnovers.  It is not easy to play DB in today's NFL, which favors the offense; giving the opposing QB less time to get rid of the ball is a big help.

 

Agree that we also need to improve against the run.

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I need to him to start making better decisions, and finding the open receiver, rather than the big play. He also has to see the field better. 

 

I would like to see 60% completion, 200+ yards per game. More passing touchdowns than interceptions. more than 7 yards per attempt. I will feel much better about him in year 3 if he can get to this point. I won't really love a year where he completes 56% of his passes for 3000 yards with 15/21 TD:INT and 6.6 yards per attempt. 

 

That stat line would put him at about 20th in the league last year. 

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I know I am a true Bills fan because all the optimistic talk around here is making me feel..uncomfortable.  :P

 

I am going to just plain agree en masse with all the positive takes herein written.

 

I've said before that if he literally makes no improvement whatsoever this team is at the very least 8-8.  I truly expect him to progress as he did at the end of the season and I agree with the Bears comparisons made earlier...this kid is not, and doesn't need to, throw 30 plus tds and 4,000 yards in 2019.  Be competent and hit your marks, because I think 20 tds, 12 picks, 3,300 yards passing, with under 500 rushing yards and 6 tds on the ground from him is enough to get you into the playoffs at 10-6.

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22 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

The defensive backfield more than held its own and got little help from the pass rush.  I think we have to do a better job at getting to the opposing QB, which helps the DBs not only defend passes but also create turnovers.  It is not easy to play DB in today's NFL, which favors the offense; giving the opposing QB less time to get rid of the ball is a big help.

 

Agree that we also need to improve against the run.

The pressure was there, they just didnt get home.  Interior pressure will help with that.

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Posted (edited)

55% completion rate

16 TD's, 24 INT's

2500 - 2800 yds

4 rushing TD's

 

It's true that our receivers dropped a lot of passes, but that's what happens when the QB keeps throwing off target.

Edited by GreggTX

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Posted (edited)

If nothing else, Josh was always good for at least 1 or 2 jaw dropping plays a game. So I'm pumped to see what he can show with more experience and a better team. It could be electric!

Edited by wiseman3
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3 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

55% completion rate

16 TD's, 24 INT's

2500 - 2800 yds

4 rushing TD's

OUCH!!

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Last year we were ranked 30th in Offensive yards per drive at 25.12.

Last year we were ranked 2nd in Defensive yards per drive at 26.18.

 

Sure be nice to add 8 or 10 offensive yards per drive and if we did, playoffs would be close to a lock.

I think we now have the OL, sufficient additional weapons, a weak schedule and an improving QB to get it done. 

Also, don't forget our STs were dead last.  Get even a few yards better in average field position would also help.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

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2 hours ago, Gugny said:

I'm looking more at how Allen responds/performs in certain situations.

 

I want him to be clutch.  I want him to be one of those QBs about whom people say, "if there's under two minutes and you need to go 80 yards to get into field goal range, I want this guy."

 

I want him to play smart football.  See the field better.  Check down when he should.  Run only when he has to.  Throw it out of bounds at the right times.  Throw receivers open.

 

As long as the Bills win games, I'm not concerned about individual stats.

 

I would, however, like to see him get to 60% completion percentage just to quiet a bunch of crusaders.

 

This is the best response. 

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I see Allen benefiting from a drastically improved run game, opening up more and more big plays down the field in play action. He wont have to play hero as much, but he will do it when the offense needs a boost. 

This is a 10 or 11 win team. No question. 

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

I know I am a true Bills fan because all the optimistic talk around here is making me feel..uncomfortable.  :P

 

I am going to just plain agree en masse with all the positive takes herein written.

 

I've said before that if he literally makes no improvement whatsoever this team is at the very least 8-8.  I truly expect him to progress as he did at the end of the season and I agree with the Bears comparisons made earlier...this kid is not, and doesn't need to, throw 30 plus tds and 4,000 yards in 2019.  Be competent and hit your marks, because I think 20 tds, 12 picks, 3,300 yards passing, with under 500 rushing yards and 6 tds on the ground from him is enough to get you into the playoffs at 10-6.

so my wife and I own and operate a small town 24/7 fitness facility. we currently have just under 300 active members. I'm here every weekday from 9am-7pm and so you can imagine the football banter that runs through here on a regular basis.....

 

there has been an unusual amount of praise tossed at me for our beloved bills this offseason from the other NFL fans that frequent this place.... one of them the other day says "I've never seen somebody look quite so confused when somebody compliments their team". lololol…. its made me feel funny all offseason. I don't quite know how to handle it.

 

on the topic of allen…. every single "stiller" fan(and there are a ton here in northwest pa) that comes in here seems to be on board with him. they all say the same thing. reminds them a lot of their guy in Pittsburgh when he was young. hard not to smile about that. 

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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11 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Perfect response! Apologies for my hasty post. I think I was a little biased because the numbers you posted appeared to be too Tyrod like. 

I also think Josh Allen is a competitor. He will do what it takes.  I think We are going to win with him giving us 150 yards in the air in some games and 350 yards in others.

That is you cannot measure his progress from just stats alone.

 

They are Tyrod-like except for the # of passing yards.  (I didn't mention it, but YPA is also important and they're minimalist, but it's important that the QB has all of them.)

People don't like to hear it, but Tyrod did enough that we could have won more with him in 2015 (when he came closest on YPG) if we'd maintained better defense (and maybe had a better backup QB?).  We had 2 @ 3 pt losses and a 7 point loss, and could plausibly have finished 10-6 instead of 8-8.

 

If Allen gives us 150 passing yards some games, and 350 yards other games, he will be averaging 250 ypg and that particular stat will be fine.  I understand your point, and especially when it comes to some of the FF-spawned aggregation stats which mix in subjective assessments.  And it's important to figure out which stats matter and why.  But stats are also a way to minimize observer bias and account for game to game variation.

 

31 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

I see Allen benefiting from a drastically improved run game, opening up more and more big plays down the field in play action. He wont have to play hero as much, but he will do it when the offense needs a boost. 

This is a 10 or 11 win team. No question. 

 

I like the way you think.  In particular, I like the "won't have to play hero as much, will do it when the offense needs a boost".

 

Some pundit commented that the Bills team would run through a brick wall for Allen.  That's because he showed last year he would run through a brick wall for them.  We just can't have him do it as a regular diet, too much wear and tear.

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