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Hapless Bills Fan

Expectations for Josh Allen this year

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Josh Allen will be a top 5 fantasy QB and get us a wild card berth into the playoffs... face it

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I don't think we're ever going to see a high completion percentage from Allen, but we might get a high YPA. I'm hoping to see an increase in explosive plays. He flashed that at times, but too often was playing solely on instinct and with little to no help. 8+ YPA would be great. 60% Comp, 220 YPG, 60 RPG sounds about right. INTs will be an issue but you live with that as long as he's making plays and winning.

Edited by VW82

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I just want him to take charge of games with the moxy he showed at the end of the season, and lead the team to more wins. Don't really care how the stats read if his game translates to wins.

Playoffs would be good also.

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5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

I won’t care too much about comp percentage overall, because I expect them to really use his deep ball a lot. I expect an offense to be made up of a symbiotic relationship between Allen taking shots, and the run game pounding it out. I think we’ll know if he’s the real deal this year.

It really comes down to whether Daboll can graduate from a College coordinator to an NFL OC.   Even though he was given a poor OL (and coaching) and below average WRs last year, the running game was non-existent.  We need him to show us that he can be a great running team by using our RBs and not our QB as the primary runner. 

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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

As far as Allen, I want to see him pushing 60% completions.  58%, at least Bortles like.   I also want to see pushing 220 ypg (that would be 3500 yds) and a 1.5% TD/INT ratio.  I'd feel great about his progress if he ends the year close.

 

 

 

I don't know if I'd feel great at that. But not bad. It would probably be real progress.

 

 

 

 

You didn't do it, Hapless, but many on here are confusing win-loss record for a QB stat. It's not. That's a team stat. Again, the real name for that stat is "TEAM record in games started by this QB (regular season)."

 

For Josh, I'm hoping to see a bit better than your YPG. That completion % would be a real improvement, and for his second year I'd be happy.

 

I hope guys like VW82 above are wrong in thinking Josh will never have a high completion percentage, but I think that's one very possible scenario, that he turns into a kind of Cam Newton type. I hope that cleaning up his mechanics will let him go far beyond that, but I'm far from sure of it.

Edited by Thurman#1
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It’s early, but I don’t believe any status quo stats or qb metrics do any justice when applied to Josh Allen. The kid is simply a freak. Off the charts. Unique. Enigmatic. After the LB Leap, every team employed a spy. Yet he riddled defenses every game with his quick decision to run based off one read. His speed, quickness, jukes, strength and vision literally embarrassed multi-millionaires grabbing at air, stopping from a fake pitch and getting blown up by contact. His arm velocity and his belief in this otherworldly capability makes the entire field his options every play from anywhere on the field. I’m convinced already that no metric yet devised can tell you anything pro or con about Allen. I don’t recall a time -even in the SB era where converting a 3rd & 18 had as high a possibility as it does with him.

 

He absolutely loves the game, works every day to get better and learn more so the next time he’s improvising, he’ll have new things to freak everybody out about. Will he be this fast , strong and elusive in year 12? Probably not. But no ones ever been this fast, strong and elusive at 22 either.

 

In short, to Hell with measurable metrics regarding Josh Allen. Enjoy the ride.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Bangarang said:

3,300 yards, 16 td and 12 int on a 56% completion percentage is trash and likely means our offense is also trash yet again.

 

Fortunately, I think he’ll perform better than that. 

 

I’ve never known you to be this optimistic...

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to win 2 out of every 3 games against any team not the Pats would be a great step forward.  so that means 9-7.   tough to see 10 over all wins or making the playoffs when you start every season 0-2 in your division.   Bills would need to split the Pats games to make the playoffs and get to 10 wins.  I don't see Josh Allen beating Brady this season after looking so bad against them last season.   Bills look like a better than .500 team, and definitely on the rise for 2020.   One more good draft and FA period and with continued stability at OC and DC and and they should be ready to contend for the division.  

 

Trust the Process. 

Edited by ProcessTruster

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8 hours ago, mead107 said:

19-0 Baby 

Didnt see it till this morning. You beat me to it!

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2 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

It’s early, but I don’t believe any status quo stats or qb metrics do any justice when applied to Josh Allen. The kid is simply a freak. Off the charts. Unique. Enigmatic. After the LB Leap, every team employed a spy. Yet he riddled defenses every game with his quick decision to run based off one read. His speed, quickness, jukes, strength and vision literally embarrassed multi-millionaires grabbing at air, stopping from a fake pitch and getting blown up by contact. His arm velocity and his belief in this otherworldly capability makes the entire field his options every play from anywhere on the field. I’m convinced already that no metric yet devised can tell you anything pro or con about Allen. I don’t recall a time -even in the SB era where converting a 3rd & 18 had as high a possibility as it does with him.

 

He absolutely loves the game, works every day to get better and learn more so the next time he’s improvising, he’ll have new things to freak everybody out about. Will he be this fast , strong and elusive in year 12? Probably not. But no ones ever been this fast, strong and elusive at 22 either.

 

In short, to Hell with measurable metrics regarding Josh Allen. Enjoy the ride.

 

 

Two takes from that. 1) where were our receivers? 2) OUR OL WAS HORRIBLE! 

 

Oh yeah, 3)he can run!

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I'm looking more at how Allen responds/performs in certain situations.

 

I want him to be clutch.  I want him to be one of those QBs about whom people say, "if there's under two minutes and you need to go 80 yards to get into field goal range, I want this guy."

 

I want him to play smart football.  See the field better.  Check down when he should.  Run only when he has to.  Throw it out of bounds at the right times.  Throw receivers open.

 

As long as the Bills win games, I'm not concerned about individual stats.

 

I would, however, like to see him get to 60% completion percentage just to quiet a bunch of crusaders.

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My expectation is that he doesn't lead the team in rushing. Second place was Shady and he was 117 yards behind. Can't have that. We will be better this year, IF Josh stays healthy. I would prefer he throws some of these balls away instead of taking off and running. Trust the defense to do their job and live to play another series.

9-7.

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I know there are a lot of folks who are furious we didn’t take a WR in the draft. But, I think having Brown and Foster on the outside is going to be a huge factor for JA’s development. 

 

They are obviously making a push to improve the TE situation and I think the focus of the passing game will be to keep teams honest with outside speed and live on underneath throws to TEs as well as Zay/Beasley. Both Beane and McD have made reference to Josh needing to take the sure thing more often.

 

I’m expecting 3600-4000 yards, a completion % of 57-59 and a TD/INT ratio of 1.5/1. The pieces are there, it’s up to Josh now.

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8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

On the one hand this article from USAToday BillsWire:  expect Allen to be slightly better than Blake Bortles

"Here was Bortles’ stat line from 2018: 13 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions, 209.1 yards per game. Bortles started 12 games last year and played in 13 overall. If Bortles were to average this number for the entire season, he would have finished with 3,346 yards passing. ......

 With Allen, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to approach Bortles-like numbers. .......a conservatively realistic stat line for Allen is a season of 3,300 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and completing 56 percent of his passes."

 

How would you feel about that, TBD'ians?

 

On the other hand, then there's this from NFL.com's Michael Robinson picking Josh Allen as the 2nd year QB winning the most games:
"2019 is Josh Allen's year to shine. He'll lead the Bills to an 11-5 record and playoff berth. .....I really like how GM Brandon Beane and head coach Sean McDermott have built this team from the trenches out, adding center Mitch Morse, guard Quinton Spain and rookie guard/tackle Cody Ford on offense, as well as an aggressive pass rusher in first-round draft pick Ed Oliver. The Bills' big offseason additions will allow them to play a physical brand of football. Buffalo won't be flashy but will surprise a lot of teams this season. "

 

Obviously I love that prediction, but is it realistic?

 

The Bills had 3 losses by 7, 4, and 4 points last year which given different outcomes on a few plays, could have been wins

(of course, we had close wins that could have been losses too).  So it's not a huge stretch of the imagination that given some improvement, our record could have been 9-7.  We also had 6, arguably 7, blowout losses.  3 of them were in Josh Allen's first 4 games, including one where the score was out of hand when he came in.  3 of them were when he was injured.

 

Thoughts?

In McDermott's 3rd year, I myself want to see the team take a clear step.  We've been oscillating between 6-10 and 9-7 for 20 years now.  Yep, 1999 was the last time the Bills saw double-digits in the W column.  That's what I want to see.

 

As far as Allen, I want to see him pushing 60% completions.  58%, at least Bortles like.   I also want to see pushing 220 ypg (that would be 3500 yds) and a 1.5% TD/INT ratio.  I'd feel great about his progress if he ends the year close.

 

 

I want to see Allen make significant improvement in his mechanics and in his decision making.  I want to see that improvement continue throughout the season so that he's a significantly better passer at the end of the season than he started out.  I want to see him make more clutch passing plays in the Red Zone.   I want to see him run less but more judiciously (and therefore, more effectively).    I think if he can do that, his completion percentage will be 60 or better and his TD ratio in the 2/1 range.  The hard numbers for passing yards and TDs will depend upon what offensive philosophy the Bills concentrate on (run or pass) and how successful the team has been in improving Allen's supporting cast but the percentages should be about 60 and 2/1.

 

How many games the Bills win depends upon the success of all three phases of the game, and are largely outside of Allen's control.   He won't control whether the Bills field a run-heavy offense which will lower his passing stats or the defense lays too many eggs or the special teams suck again.  He's not the guy doing the hiring and firing.  He's not the one making the game plans or the play calls.  All he can do is his job, and if he improves in that role, then he'll be successful whether his team is or not.

 

PS - I didn't include improving his leadership in what Allen needs to do because I think he's already established himself as a leader.  He needs to improve his play enough so that his leadership doesn't turn into foolish bravado.

 

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9 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

10-6 is probably realistic.  Let's say for arguments sake we could have been 8-8 last year, 10-6 is a logical progression up, even with a lot of new players.  I also think Josh Allen will be a lot more comfortable running the offense since he will be the designated starter and get most of the reps in camp/practice.  Daboll has a lot on his shoulders bringing everyone up to speed and on the same page, but if he can do this, a Wildcard spot is not out of the question.

 

On defense, the biggest question mark is DE.  Need someone other than Hughes to be an aggressive pass rusher.  I'm really hoping Shaq Lawson takes a step up and adds pass rushing ability to his run stopping ability.

That certainly wouldnt hurt but since when are our deficiencies against the pass?  We had the #1 rated pass D last season.  We need to continue to improve against the run.

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1 hour ago, Gugny said:

I'm looking more at how Allen responds/performs in certain situations.

 

I want him to be clutch.  I want him to be one of those QBs about whom people say, "if there's under two minutes and you need to go 80 yards to get into field goal range, I want this guy."

 

I want him to play smart football.  See the field better.  Check down when he should.  Run only when he has to.  Throw it out of bounds at the right times.  Throw receivers open.

 

As long as the Bills win games, I'm not concerned about individual stats.

 

I would, however, like to see him get to 60% completion percentage just to quiet a bunch of crusaders.

Totally agree with this. Everything you just described reminds me of Big Ben early on in his career. 

 

His numbers weren’t eye popping. I actually tend to think he rode a really good defense most of the time that gave him the luxury of being fairly average for about 3 quarters of every game. But from 05 to about 2010 was there a dude in the NFL that I wanted more with the game on the line? Probably not. Just so clutch. 

 

 

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Runner up defensive rookie of the year, but why are you asking about a LB on another team? 😉

 

Oh The QB ... stay healthy, big all around overall improvement from being number one going into camp and getting reps with who he will actually be throwing to all year. Make good use of the extra time he should have in the pocket to make reads. Only run if it's there, or to keep them guessing. Double the holy crap did i just see a Bills QB make that throw moments.

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He was at or near the top in dropped passes, spikes/throwaways and depth of target.  All those things distort completion% to the bad and make it an abnormal metric for him.  He is very good at short yardage/goal line situational QB runs whether a draw, reaching over the top or a power run with an assist from behind.  So, TD passes are not such an important number.  Seriously, I do not care how TDs are scored and I do not know why any Bills fan should. 

 

Given all that, my crystal ball predicts his completion % will be closer to 60%, with combined rushing and passing TDs around 30, total TOs around 18 and total passing yards between 3600 and 4000.  The Bills offense will be closer to the middle of the pack but perform well in redzone situations and average 24+ points per game with any defensive or ST scoring being a bonus.  

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54 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

That certainly wouldnt hurt but since when are our deficiencies against the pass?  We had the #1 rated pass D last season.  We need to continue to improve against the run.

 

The defensive backfield more than held its own and got little help from the pass rush.  I think we have to do a better job at getting to the opposing QB, which helps the DBs not only defend passes but also create turnovers.  It is not easy to play DB in today's NFL, which favors the offense; giving the opposing QB less time to get rid of the ball is a big help.

 

Agree that we also need to improve against the run.

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I need to him to start making better decisions, and finding the open receiver, rather than the big play. He also has to see the field better. 

 

I would like to see 60% completion, 200+ yards per game. More passing touchdowns than interceptions. more than 7 yards per attempt. I will feel much better about him in year 3 if he can get to this point. I won't really love a year where he completes 56% of his passes for 3000 yards with 15/21 TD:INT and 6.6 yards per attempt. 

 

That stat line would put him at about 20th in the league last year. 

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