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Hapless Bills Fan

Expectations for Josh Allen this year

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I know I am a true Bills fan because all the optimistic talk around here is making me feel..uncomfortable.  :P

 

I am going to just plain agree en masse with all the positive takes herein written.

 

I've said before that if he literally makes no improvement whatsoever this team is at the very least 8-8.  I truly expect him to progress as he did at the end of the season and I agree with the Bears comparisons made earlier...this kid is not, and doesn't need to, throw 30 plus tds and 4,000 yards in 2019.  Be competent and hit your marks, because I think 20 tds, 12 picks, 3,300 yards passing, with under 500 rushing yards and 6 tds on the ground from him is enough to get you into the playoffs at 10-6.

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22 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

The defensive backfield more than held its own and got little help from the pass rush.  I think we have to do a better job at getting to the opposing QB, which helps the DBs not only defend passes but also create turnovers.  It is not easy to play DB in today's NFL, which favors the offense; giving the opposing QB less time to get rid of the ball is a big help.

 

Agree that we also need to improve against the run.

The pressure was there, they just didnt get home.  Interior pressure will help with that.

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55% completion rate

16 TD's, 24 INT's

2500 - 2800 yds

4 rushing TD's

 

It's true that our receivers dropped a lot of passes, but that's what happens when the QB keeps throwing off target.

Edited by GreggTX

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If nothing else, Josh was always good for at least 1 or 2 jaw dropping plays a game. So I'm pumped to see what he can show with more experience and a better team. It could be electric!

Edited by wiseman3
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3 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

55% completion rate

16 TD's, 24 INT's

2500 - 2800 yds

4 rushing TD's

OUCH!!

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Last year we were ranked 30th in Offensive yards per drive at 25.12.

Last year we were ranked 2nd in Defensive yards per drive at 26.18.

 

Sure be nice to add 8 or 10 offensive yards per drive and if we did, playoffs would be close to a lock.

I think we now have the OL, sufficient additional weapons, a weak schedule and an improving QB to get it done. 

Also, don't forget our STs were dead last.  Get even a few yards better in average field position would also help.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats

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2 hours ago, Gugny said:

I'm looking more at how Allen responds/performs in certain situations.

 

I want him to be clutch.  I want him to be one of those QBs about whom people say, "if there's under two minutes and you need to go 80 yards to get into field goal range, I want this guy."

 

I want him to play smart football.  See the field better.  Check down when he should.  Run only when he has to.  Throw it out of bounds at the right times.  Throw receivers open.

 

As long as the Bills win games, I'm not concerned about individual stats.

 

I would, however, like to see him get to 60% completion percentage just to quiet a bunch of crusaders.

 

This is the best response. 

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I see Allen benefiting from a drastically improved run game, opening up more and more big plays down the field in play action. He wont have to play hero as much, but he will do it when the offense needs a boost. 

This is a 10 or 11 win team. No question. 

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51 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

I know I am a true Bills fan because all the optimistic talk around here is making me feel..uncomfortable.  :P

 

I am going to just plain agree en masse with all the positive takes herein written.

 

I've said before that if he literally makes no improvement whatsoever this team is at the very least 8-8.  I truly expect him to progress as he did at the end of the season and I agree with the Bears comparisons made earlier...this kid is not, and doesn't need to, throw 30 plus tds and 4,000 yards in 2019.  Be competent and hit your marks, because I think 20 tds, 12 picks, 3,300 yards passing, with under 500 rushing yards and 6 tds on the ground from him is enough to get you into the playoffs at 10-6.

so my wife and I own and operate a small town 24/7 fitness facility. we currently have just under 300 active members. I'm here every weekday from 9am-7pm and so you can imagine the football banter that runs through here on a regular basis.....

 

there has been an unusual amount of praise tossed at me for our beloved bills this offseason from the other NFL fans that frequent this place.... one of them the other day says "I've never seen somebody look quite so confused when somebody compliments their team". lololol…. its made me feel funny all offseason. I don't quite know how to handle it.

 

on the topic of allen…. every single "stiller" fan(and there are a ton here in northwest pa) that comes in here seems to be on board with him. they all say the same thing. reminds them a lot of their guy in Pittsburgh when he was young. hard not to smile about that. 

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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11 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Perfect response! Apologies for my hasty post. I think I was a little biased because the numbers you posted appeared to be too Tyrod like. 

I also think Josh Allen is a competitor. He will do what it takes.  I think We are going to win with him giving us 150 yards in the air in some games and 350 yards in others.

That is you cannot measure his progress from just stats alone.

 

They are Tyrod-like except for the # of passing yards.  (I didn't mention it, but YPA is also important and they're minimalist, but it's important that the QB has all of them.)

People don't like to hear it, but Tyrod did enough that we could have won more with him in 2015 (when he came closest on YPG) if we'd maintained better defense (and maybe had a better backup QB?).  We had 2 @ 3 pt losses and a 7 point loss, and could plausibly have finished 10-6 instead of 8-8.

 

If Allen gives us 150 passing yards some games, and 350 yards other games, he will be averaging 250 ypg and that particular stat will be fine.  I understand your point, and especially when it comes to some of the FF-spawned aggregation stats which mix in subjective assessments.  And it's important to figure out which stats matter and why.  But stats are also a way to minimize observer bias and account for game to game variation.

 

31 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

I see Allen benefiting from a drastically improved run game, opening up more and more big plays down the field in play action. He wont have to play hero as much, but he will do it when the offense needs a boost. 

This is a 10 or 11 win team. No question. 

 

I like the way you think.  In particular, I like the "won't have to play hero as much, will do it when the offense needs a boost".

 

Some pundit commented that the Bills team would run through a brick wall for Allen.  That's because he showed last year he would run through a brick wall for them.  We just can't have him do it as a regular diet, too much wear and tear.

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8 hours ago, VW82 said:

I don't think we're ever going to see a high completion percentage from Allen, but we might get a high YPA. I'm hoping to see an increase in explosive plays. He flashed that at times, but too often was playing solely on instinct and with little to no help. 8+ YPA would be great. 60% Comp, 220 YPG, 60 RPG sounds about right. INTs will be an issue but you live with that as long as he's making plays and winning.

 

I would actually like to see a higher YPA from Allen, but not too much higher.  He needs to learn to hit the bunnies, and he needs to hit them more accurately so as to enable YAC (which fold into a QB's YPA right now).  Explosive plays have that Oooh Aaah factor but the reason short passing games became popular is they're higher percentage and move the chains.  That's possibly why a threshold completion percentage turns out to be important in assessing QB: too low and it probably means he isn't taking advantage of "what the defense gives you" enough.

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I think I am in the camp that I just want to see game to game progression this season, like we saw towards the end of last season. 

 

If I am talking about his numbers as far as my expectations go...I would guess its around 3,800 yards, 26 passing TDs, another 3-5 on the ground, and 12ish INTs..

 

Again, this year is all about the continued progression from Josh, the wins will come with that.

 

Love this kid, he has made me a firm believer. 

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31 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

55% completion rate

16 TD's, 24 INT's

2500 - 2800 yds

4 rushing TD's

 

It's true that our receivers dropped a lot of passes, but that's what happens when the QB keeps throwing off target.

 

I sentence you to watch  30 KC, Dallas, LAR, and 2017 Vikings games and observe the off-target passes real receivers are somehow able to haul in and secure for the catch.

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9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I sentence you to watch  30 KC, Dallas, LAR, and 2017 Vikings games and observe the off-target passes real receivers are somehow able to haul in and secure for the catch.

i'd add in the steelers wr's of the last 2 or 3 seasons.... those boys are masters of the area code catches

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51 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

55% completion rate

16 TD's, 24 INT's

2500 - 2800 yds

4 rushing TD's

 

It's true that our receivers dropped a lot of passes, but that's what happens when the QB keeps throwing off target.

 

Gregg, everyone is entitle to their opinion, but just to be clear what I am extrapolating from the above is that other than an uptick in completion percentage after an end to 2018 that saw improvement and the Bills revamping about 7 positions around Josh on offense you truly expect him to be a worse QB than he was last year?

 

Not only that he hasn't grown from year one to year two, but that he actually regresses from a .833 TD/Int ration to .667?

Edited by dollars 2 donuts

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4200 yards passing/ 38 TDs, 18 INTs/ 650 yards rushing/ 58% completion rate

7-9= No playoffs

 

OR

 

3700 yards passing/ 27 TDs, 10 INTs/ 400 yards rushing/ 66% completion rate

10-6= Playoff berth

 

Both scenarios are more than feasible and grant it the Defense will have to do their part, but which would you rather see? Awesome stat line or Competent winning football.

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1 minute ago, billsbackto81 said:

4200 yards passing/ 38 TDs, 18 INTs/ 650 yards rushing/ 58% completion rate

7-9= No playoffs

 

OR

 

3700 yards passing/ 27 TDs, 10 INTs/ 400 yards rushing/ 66% completion rate

10-6= Playoff berth

 

Both scenarios are more than feasible and grant it the Defense will have to do their part, but which would you rather see? Awesome stat line or Competent winning football.

 

 

BB81, if Jim Kelly were truly all about Jim Kelly from 89-96 (K-Gun years) he would have called his own number much more and would have retired with a good number more passing yards and TDs.

 

I want the kid to be great, and I think he is more like Jim Kelly...in other words if we asked him he would say "F 4000 yards if WE don't make it to the playoffs."

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Firstly I want to see 16 games started. 

 

Then I I think a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, with 7.5 Y/A is what I’d like to see. I’ll hope for 60% completion percentage but I’m going to be ok with 57+ as long as he’s taking what’s given and not forcing a big completion.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Gregg, everyone is entitle to their opinion, but just to be clear what I am extrapolating from the above is that other than an uptick in completion percentage after an end to 2018 that saw improvement and the Bills revamping about 7 positions around Josh on offense you truly expect him to be a worse QB than he was last year?

 

Not only that he hasn't grown from year one to year two, but that he actually regresses from a .833 TD/Int ration to .667?

This must be one of those rhetorical questions...

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12 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

So would I.  It would be more than enough for JA to keep up his end of the bargain.

With the exception of the Orton year Bills haven't had 3,500 yards since 2011.

 

As for wins/losses.  Too much of a team thing.  Logically I got a 8-8 maybe a 9-7 season but it depends so much on so many new players.

If all goes real good 10 wins is not out of the question.  The 1st 2 games right out of the gate will mean so much.

i agree with this. i'm worried about the 1st game being on the road against greg williams. if we start out 2-0 i'm expecting 11-5.

 

i also think josh will quiet the comp. percentage naysayers. he led the league in 20+ yd. attempts so when he starts taking those shorter outlets i believe he will be at no less than 64%.  i also see a td/int. ratio much better than most seem to expect.  i'm going with 3900yds.  27td  9int.

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