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"The Bills are winning this Draft" - Per Matt Miller


Scorp83

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28 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

Why? Just curious... does his personality stink? What did you hear?

They scouted exactly zero of his games this year and he had the worst catch rate in this years WR class. There was also a report fwiw that his “heart” was questioned 

Edited by YoloinOhio
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8 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

It's the overall grouping of talent. I don't see what the plan is. Considering that Gore and Shady will likely move on after this season Yeldon and Singletary aren't exactly complementary backs. That's not to say that things can't change.... But.... We don't exactly have a hammer. Yeldon is big but plays soft. It kind of feels like finding two guys to do what Shady does instead of getting a player that can be a reliable 3 down workhorse, or going with the "thunder and lightning" approach.

 

I don't hate the pick. I just don't see what their plan is moving forward.

Devin was/is the definition of a workhorse based off college stats and attempts no?

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5 hours ago, Billzgobowlin said:

We always have next years draft to balance the RB room.

Absolutely. That’s why it’s something I’m not particularly concerned about. 

 

5 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

I think Beane was true to his word in taking the BPA in the first three rounds.  If the o-line can mesh early, Allen is set up to have a breakout year.

I think so as well. I also think some of us (myself included) still aren’t used to that approach. I’m pretty excited to see a GM actually follow his board and build from the ball out. QB and trenches is where consistent winners are built. 

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4 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

Devin was/is the definition of a workhorse based off college stats and attempts no?

If he’d had the same production in the SEC or was utilized more in the passing game I’d agree. He’s a prospect. We’ll see how it works out. I hope the kid can be a workhorse at a higher level of competition and spins the league around like Barry Sanders. 

 

Again. I don’t hate the pick. I’m just trying to sort what the long term plan is at the position. 

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38 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

How are we winning the draft when we have a bunch of WR3s on the roster? He's an inaccurate QB and as we saw last year no one could get separation, that is still a huge issue. I see another year with loads of INTs. We need to do what KC did with Hill/Hunt/Kelce/Watkins. Surround your young franchise QB with as many weapons as possible. Not a big fan of a slow RB either, have enough of those. 

 

The OL was the worst in the NFL by a country mile.

 

That needs to be fixed, first and foremost. No exceptions, that’s priority NUMBER ONE.

 

It doesn’t matter who your skilled players are if your franchise QB is on his back or running for his life on EVERY pass play.

 

If the line all of a sudden becomes a strength and these skilled players turn out to be total duds, McBeane will fix it.

 

If Allen gets time, the offense will be fine as the skilled players they have, they all have a role and it should be ok.

 

Like I said, if it turns out they need a superstar weapon, they will get it.

 

Can’t fix all your ills in one offseason.

 

OL needs to be rock solid. That was priority number one, two and three this offseason.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

 

Because 30+ year old RB’s don’t hold up well.  Kind of ridiculous we are paying McCoy $6m this season.  Beane must be worried about the locker room impact of letting McCoy go.  

Fair point. But just seems weird we now have McCoy, Gore, Yeldon AND this new kid now.

 

They must be trying to move shady cause the math don’t add up 

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6 hours ago, Billzgobowlin said:

We always have next years draft to balance the RB room.

They wanted a young guy in the room to groom for the future. To learn what it means to be a professional from Shady and Gore. This is a leadership development method that they truly believe in building the right culture. 

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5 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

Forgive my ignorance, who is matt miller exactly? Obviously I see he covers the draft for BR, but BR is full of wannabes and know-nothings pretending to know stuff. Does he have a actual pedigree beyond BR? 

 

So, you’re saying they’re just like you with an opposite take. Perfect.

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Just now, HomeTeam said:

They wanted a young guy in the room to groom for the future. To learn what it means to be a professional from Shady and Gore. This is a leadership development method that they truly believe in building the right culture. 

 

Would have been nice if they put that same thought into their QB room last year.

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40 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Antonio Brown went in the 6th. Colston went in the 7th. Thielen wasn’t drafted. 

Good point. 

 

Here is one for you to consider: Butler isn’t Brown. Nor is he Colston or Thielen. Just because it has happened in the past doesn’t mean it will happen in the future when every variable has been changed. Everything is different. It can’t be compared, only used as data for this year, this team, this pick. Otherwise, every team would be picking a quarterback at 199. 

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56 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:

How are we winning the draft when we have a bunch of WR3s on the roster? He's an inaccurate QB and as we saw last year no one could get separation, that is still a huge issue. I see another year with loads of INTs. We need to do what KC did with Hill/Hunt/Kelce/Watkins. Surround your young franchise QB with as many weapons as possible. Not a big fan of a slow RB either, have enough of those. 

Great in theory, but accumulating the talent KC did obviously come with some gambles on players with red flags. We’ll see how that offense functions without Hunt and Hill this year. 

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I'd be fine with taking a flier on Butler at this point due to the opportunity cost.  We don't really need to make 4 more picks as we're going to run into serious roster contention and end up needing to cut some talented players.

 

That said, everyone has fallen in love with Butler as their other crushes have been dispatched, and it's coalescing into this one guy.  He could be ok, but I mean, let's not get ourselves into a tizzy for a receiver with this in his scouting report:

  • Drops on drops on drops

The likelihood that we're passing time and time again on the next superstar WR is vanishingly small.

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1 minute ago, akm0404 said:

I'd be fine with taking a flier on Butler at this point due to the opportunity cost.  We don't really need to make 4 more picks as we're going to run into serious roster contention and end up needing to cut some talented players.

 

That said, everyone has fallen in love with Butler as their other crushes have been dispatched, and it's coalescing into this one guy.  He could be ok, but I mean, let's not get ourselves into a tizzy for a receiver with this in his scouting report:

  • Drops on drops on drops

The likelihood that we're passing time and time again on the next superstar WR is vanishingly small.

WR has the highest bust rate of all positions. Out of all WRs drafted in the past 6 years IIRC correctly only 15% made one pro bowl. That stat was on the radio here yesterday as Patsies fans debated the Harry pick. 

 

Butler has a huge wing span, height, strength. Smart kid. I watched his highlights, then I watched more of him. It’s rare that a guy that big is as fluid as he is. He trained with CJ this offseason, he wants it. 

 

I don’t watch nearly as much CFB as I’d like but when I latch onto a player I’d like to think my success rate is pretty good. Whoever gets Butler is going to be happy. That’s my guess. 

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8 hours ago, DallasMac said:

Like most here the rb selection confused me.  Just felt like Jace or Winovich would've been the better pick.  Really liked Trayveon Williams and could've got him a round later.  Bottom line is I trust the guys running the show and am still happy with what the team has done overall.

They must think Singletary is a better player than Williams so it doesn't matter he could've been had a round later.  They got their guy where they wanted to get him.   

 

Shady and Gore are free agents in 2020.  Why is it so shocking they would draft a RB??  It makes total sense if, as Beane has said, he is working to build the team for the present and the future.

 

a RB who hasn't missed a college game, doesn't fumble and is very elusive.  Sounds good to me.

19 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Fair point. But just seems weird we now have McCoy, Gore, Yeldon AND this new kid now.

 

They must be trying to move shady cause the math don’t add up 

Why do you think it won't be Dimarco who goes?  

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7 hours ago, mykidsdad said:

Knox looks so average. He is probably just another guy, so I dont get it. Otherwise, good job Beane.

 

Right...

 

6-4-254 with 4.51 speed...

 

Very average...

 

They did not use him much at Ole Miss...It was dumb...He's not average at all...In almost any category...He even had a 38 Wonderlic...?

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12 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

WR has the highest bust rate of all positions. Out of all WRs drafted in the past 6 years IIRC correctly only 15% made one pro bowl. That stat was on the radio here yesterday as Patsies fans debated the Harry pick. 

 

Butler has a huge wing span, height, strength. Smart kid. I watched his highlights, then I watched more of him. It’s rare that a guy that big is as fluid as he is. He trained with CJ this offseason, he wants it. 

 

I don’t watch nearly as much CFB as I’d like but when I latch onto a player I’d like to think my success rate is pretty good. Whoever gets Butler is going to be happy. That’s my guess. 

Agree on Butler.  That would make me very happy.  He might bust but I’d glad take a chance on a 6’6” guy with his production. 

 

And where did you find that thing about the bust rate of certain positions? That would be really interesting.

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3 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

Hahahaha

 

Although he has been very positive about the BIlls draft as well.

I appreciate that he likes our draft, but he’s been giving the Pats*** a happy ending “Krafty” all morning.

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29 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

Anyone else hoping that they trade up again in the 4th and get Butler? He is going to be a star, I can’t believe he is still there. 

You say he's going to be a star.  We know Butler has great physical gifts. And he's still not drafted.  Doesn't that make you wonder what happened that no one knows about yet?  He's not falling for no reason.

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2 things for everyone... 

 

Beane said he's not trading Shady. That Shady is the starter. There is room for 4 RBs on the roster. The Patriots have been doing it for years and play the hot hand. Each will have a role and we won't have to rely on UDFAs off the street to fill in when there is an injury. 

 

Patrick DiMarco is a full back. He is a lead blocker. He is not a running back. These things are not the same. This roster will have a fullback on it.

Edited by MrEpsYtown
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1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agree on Butler.  That would make me very happy.  He might bust but I’d glad take a chance on a 6’6” guy with his production. 

 

And where did you find that thing about the bust rate of certain positions? That would be really interesting.

It was on the Felger and Mazz radio show, they didn’t go into other positions because they were talking about Harry and WRs. Bert Breer was part of the segment. 

 

I was surprised but it made sense, a ton of WRs are drafted, most teams use 5-6 but so many guys never make an impact. Bill B. says it’s the hardest position to predict because WR in college don’t do things that they have to do at the next level. 

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3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I love this draft!! The Bills started off with the guy that they wanted. He is a perfect fit for what we are doing. They turned around and added, potentially, a Pro Bowl RT. From there, they got a guy that may be their number 1 back in a year. Singletary is a really, really good football player. Knox is a guy that’s as talented as any TE that I can remember the Bills having. He’s a super athlete that was misused like Oliver was. I think he’s the starter at TE. Overall I couldn’t be much happier with the way that these 1st 2 days went. I was hoping for Metcalf as I think he could be a number 1 but other than that no complaints. I’m hoping for Anthony Johnson today.

I think that Kroft will be their starter, at least to start the season.

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9 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

We keep forgetting about the rugby player we signed too

Yeah because the people from over the pond swear we just got the leveon bell of rugby. So I guess we will have to see if he can make his game translate. Because according to them we are lucky as ***** and are to stupid to even know it lol

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2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

 

Because 30+ year old RB’s don’t hold up well.  Kind of ridiculous we are paying McCoy $6m this season.  Beane must be worried about the locker room impact of letting McCoy go.  

I would say it’s a few factors ... they think his struggles last year were due to the OL, they plan to utilize him more in the passing game, his contract isn’t an issue due to their current cap situation, and his value to the Bills is higher than it is to another team so trading him would be a net loss due to the above. He’s also a great vet for their rookie to learn from given their similarities.

 

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I was looking at a couple of things when it comes to "Winning the Draft'

 

Using CBS Sportsline overall rankings:

 

Ed Oliver – ranked 4th picked 9th – plus 5

Cody Ford – ranked 16th picked 38th – plus 22

Devin Singletary  - ranked 76th picked 74th – minus 2

Dawson Knox – ranked 92nd picked 96th – plus 4

Total value so far – plus 29

No other team is plus 20

 

 

As for just positional rankings:

 

Ed Oliver - 2nd ranked DL - 2nd picked - plus 0

Cody Ford - 4th ranked OL - 8th picked - plus 4

Devin Singletary - 4th ranked RB - 5th picked - plus 1

Dawson Knox  - 5th ranked TE - 8th picked - plus 3

 

Again - value for the spots ranked upon position.

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said:

I'm pretty happy with this draft. Grabbing a HB in the 3rd was a bit of a head scratcher when you consider the Yeldon signing, but I love the other picks. I'll just have to have faith on that pick... I just don't see a real plan at HB.

 

I imagine its a pick for the future and he’ll mostly see time on ST this year unless injuries strike. I don't think Shady or Gore will be on the roster next year so he’ll be a potential replacement next year. Who knows, if he shows enough in camp this year he could see more PT than I think.

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5 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

Gore likely gets cut in camp, IMO.  Or Yeldon.   One or the other.   They signed them as insurance depending on how the draft went.   They get a guy at RB in the draft.   Singletary will stick and one of Gore or Yeldon won't .  

 

Trust the Process.  It appears from what the "experts" are saying that McBeanes are killing it in the draft.    again. 

I mostly agree, although I think the only player more or less guaranteed to make the 53 is McCoy. Singletary's tape looks great, but it's harder to predict how well his type of play is going to translate into the NFL than someone who is more of a downhill runner. He might get stuffed every run. But, he could be another Sproles. It'll be fun to watch. Can't wait to see him in preseason.

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