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GreggTX

Do you want a WR at 9?

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7 minutes ago, mannc said:

Here’s the problem I’ve got with BPA.  If your choice is between Oliver and Metcalf—two guys who play entirely different positions—how do you know who’s “best available”?  I think at most you can meaningfully compare guys who play the same or similar positions.  And where should positional value enter into it?  Is a “generational” (I hate that term) guard worth more than a really good WR or edge rusher?

 

If it's a "generational" anything (besides like a kicker/punter obviously), I'd probably lean that way over basically anything else. Quenton Nelson was one example of that IMO.

 

As far as comparing between positions, obviously that's something that everyone has to do. IMO, Oliver is one of the top 2 or 3 prospects in this draft, so if he's on the board at 9, he's almost certainly my choice. DK is the #1 WR IMO and I think he's a borderline elite prospect.

 

Positional value does factor in. For example, I have Devin White ahead of Metcalf on my big board, but for the Bills, I would take Metcalf between the two since Buffalo already has two talented young LBs. I would also factor salaries into the equation; that's the main reason why taking Saquon at #2 was so dumb IMO. With some positions, taking a guy at #9 means making him one of the highest paid at his position in the league as a rookie; that's just not really a good investment.

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20 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Do you want a WR at 9? The reason I ask is that there don't appear to be any WR's in this draft rated that high and we already have Beasley, Brown, Jones and Foster and a couple others. Maybe we should even wait until next year to bring in someone that could be elite. 

 

One way that the Bills could maximize their talent at WR is by using 4 WR sets and forcing other teams to use 3 or even 4 CB's to cover them all. All of the WR's I listed are average or better. How many teams have 4 CB's that are average or better? Our #3 and #4 WR's could have pretty decent numbers this year because that's where you'll find our most favorable mismatches. Imagine Jones or Foster all day against a dumpster dive CB that just signed. I'll take that matchup all day long.

no

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Not unless they trade back due to DL talent being gone. I would still prefer a OL at 9 or trade back for the same. 

 

WR or TE in the 2nd and above please.

 

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3 hours ago, mannc said:

Here’s the problem I’ve got with BPA.  If your choice is between Oliver and Metcalf—two guys who play entirely different positions—how do you know who’s “best available”?  I think at most you can meaningfully compare guys who play the same or similar positions.  And where should positional value enter into it?  Is a “generational” (I hate that term) guard worth more than a really good WR or edge rusher?

Was watching GMFB and the hosts asked Rashad Jennings, Giants player, what he'd like to see them do. He said he's okay with Eli at QB and would love to see them take DK Metcalf. He said dude is a beast and would make their offense explosive with Saquan, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram.

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Just now, the skycap said:

Was watching GMFB and the hosts asked Rashad Jennings, Giants player, what he'd like to see them do. He said he's okay with Eli at QB and would love to see them take DK Metcalf. He said dude is a beast and would make their offense explosive with Saquan, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram.

I think Metcalf’s going top 10, maybe even to the Jets at 3 if they can’t trade back.  I would be more than OK with taking him at 9, if he’s there.

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Just now, mannc said:

I think Metcalf’s going top 10, maybe even to the Jets at 3 if they can’t trade back.  I would be more than OK with taking him at 9, if he’s there.

 I'm all in too!! Would make Bills offense explosive.

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I for one would love to see Metcalf, Brown and Beasley on the field at the same time. I think that changes how a defense will approach Josh and probably keep more defensive people away from the line of scrimmage which will also help his underneath game develop.  I understand the risks but it will take a wr some time to develop and it would be better to get him sooner rather than later.

 

I don't want a TE at 9. A first round TE is a nice pick after you have a playoff season since most of the higher priority positions are filled with enough talent. Probably the reason why we haven't had a good TE lately.

 

In the end, it feels like we're probably looking at pass rushing DE as the most likely pick. Even though we lost Kyle, it seems in the next couple years the DE position will have the most change because I can't see them really thinking it's set either this year or for the future. Hughes, Lawson, Murphy and Yarbough could really use a young talented player before any of the other needs we have. 

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what is the best thing for Josh Allen ( the QB)
whatever it takes to help him realize his potential.
 

Honestly should be BPA. thats Free agency was all about filling for needs and depth/and competition  at those needs

 just to give them freedom do draft whatever they might wish for. Some players at nine you just have to take , most likely depending on how the draft falls

But I look at Metcalf as a high ceiling medium risk project. and there are other WRs i would be delighted to have as Bills via the draft.

I am risk adverse at Nine even in the first round. I want an immediate impact player.

 or two.
do not feel Metcalf is my guy. and solid WRs could be had later than nine for sure

 

 I do respect those that defend him at nine.

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No, but mostly because I'm not convinced about Metcalf. I just don't see it, but I am wrong all of the time. 

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6 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

what is the best thing for Josh Allen ( the QB)
whatever it takes to help him realize his potential.


This is really all that needs to be said. Period. Full-stop. This franchise goes as Allen goes, so whatever helps him achieve that ceiling. We've shown that we can find undervalued defensive players, we've significantly improved the offensive line issues.

 

To me, the biggest glaring holes of talent on this team are still TE and WR (yes, we've added to that unit, but Foster was undrafted for a reason, Zay has been hot and cold, Brown has issues with migraines and is a one-trick pony and Beasley is both tiny and has battled his own injury issues (Duke Williams is not a guy that should be counted on, at least in the "what is going to help our franchise QB hit his ceiling" discussion...) For a deep-throwing QB who excels in motion, a big-play/uber athlete at WR makes more sense to me than a solid/reliable TE. I just don't see it as a premium position... 

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People talk about Metcalf's production, but he scored 14 TDs in 21 games. When he played, he produced.

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I'm going with Hockensen if he's even still on the board.   He improves your run blocking, he improves the pass blocking and he's a legitimate offensive threat.

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Not really.  The only one I think the Bills would consider is Metcalf.  If the Bills did pick him, I'd be OK, but I think going in to the draft the draft values and Bills needs fit together better at a couple other positions.

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4 hours ago, TigerJ said:

Not really.  The only one I think the Bills would consider is Metcalf.  If the Bills did pick him, I'd be OK, but I think going in to the draft the draft values and Bills needs fit together better at a couple other positions.

I really think they really want Metcalf. I'm afraid of the Jets and Detroit. I'm thinking Detroit may want to move up and get that defensive player for Matt Patricia with the Jets and the Jets taking Metcalf at 8. By the way, can somebody explain to me what is the meaning of draft value? 

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I really think they really want Metcalf. I'm afraid of the Jets and Detroit. I'm thinking Detroit may want to move up and get that defensive player for Matt Patricia with the Jets and the Jets taking Metcalf at 8. By the way, can somebody explain to me what is the meaning of draft value? 

 

Draft value only makes sense when you're talking about salaries imo. Barkley wasn't a bad value in terms of talent, but he was instantly the 5th highest paid running back, therefore bad value.

 

People are using the term in this thread in an attempt to say no to WR at 9. I dont see any reason why Metcalf would be bad value at 9. Taking a TE on the other hand...

 

https://www.watchfantom.com/the-three-highest-and-lowest-paid-offensive-nfl-positions/

 

not sure where WR falls but it's probably close behind RT

Edited by Chemical
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Posted (edited)

My understanding of draft value is simply that you want in theory to pick better players higher in the draft and lesser players later in the draft.  The reason is obvious.  If you don't pick the better players early, other teams will, and you'll be left with mediocrity.  I am not anti-Metcalf.  He's a rare athlete and has a chance to develop the missing pieces of his skill set to become a really outstanding generational type WR.  When I say I think draft values fit Buffalo's needs better at other positions, I'm saying that IMO, Buffalo's greatest need is on the defensive line where at three tech Buffalo has a 6'6" 341 lb tackle who is really a tweener (3 tech and nose) and is not consistently disruptive, and at defensive end where Buffalo has a 31 year old and two other guys whose presence on the Bills is uncertain past the 2019 season (Trent Murphy because of lack of production and Shaq Lawson because his production thus far may not justify the fifth year option on his rookie deal.  Jerry Hughes is in the last year of his contract too.  It just so happens there are a number of top 10 players in the draft at those two positions.  

 

It's certainly true that Buffalo could use a receiver who combines elite speed with top end size and strength, but it looks to me as if the defense would be helped more by having Oliver/Sweat/Burns/Gary/Wilkins than the offense will be helped by Metcalf.  It's still all just opinion, and you're welcome to have a different one.

Edited by TigerJ
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After the Sammy Watkins pick I'm totally sceptical about ever picking a wr that early again. Most experts have Metcalf rated well after 9. This is a deep draft with several good wr prospects from late 1st thru the 4th. DK reminds me too much of David Boston. Go DL or Hock.....

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No. There is none even nearly worth it. Metcalf at #9 is about my worst case scenario. 

 

If the too dline guys and White are gone I'd sell the pick and try and move back. If I had to pick at #9 on offense I'd pick Jonah Williams. That said I think as long as Murray and Taylor go ahead of us (I think they will) then we are getting a defensive player who I would take ahead of any offensive player on the board. 

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3 hours ago, the skycap said:

I really think they really want Metcalf. I'm afraid of the Jets and Detroit. I'm thinking Detroit may want to move up and get that defensive player for Matt Patricia with the Jets and the Jets taking Metcalf at 8. By the way, can somebody explain to me what is the meaning of draft value? 

 

It means picking a player where his talent deserves him to be taken. I know you love DK but he is not the 9th best player in this draft. Not even close. 

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It means picking a player where his talent deserves him to be taken. I know you love DK but he is not the 9th best player in this draft. Not even close. 

I hear you Gunner, but according to the "experts" Josh Allen shouldn't have been taken so high. Josh wasn't very productive at Wyoming, but the Bills scouts saw the potential. Also his physical attributes. Could be they see the same in Metcalf. I mean 21TDs in the 14 games he played with a 20yd per catch avg. 

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8 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I hear you Gunner, but according to the "experts" Josh Allen shouldn't have been taken so high. Josh wasn't very productive at Wyoming, but the Bills scouts saw the potential. Also his physical attributes. Could be they see the same in Metcalf. I mean 21TDs in the 14 games he played with a 20yd per catch avg. 

 

Well I wouldn't have taken Josh that high either so there you go... I am not a lover of high ceiling, low floor prospects. 

 

That said I see a critical difference between Josh and DK. The one thing you could never knock Josh for was he competed. Every time he was out there he competed his butt off. There is inconsistency of effort on DK's tape. He doesn't play to the whistle every snap. That doesn't strike me as a process guy. If he puts it together then yes he could be a star. If he doesn't he could be done in the league pretty quick. That is too rich a gamble at #9 overall for me. I wouldn't hate it with a trade back. 

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1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

After the Sammy Watkins pick I'm totally sceptical about ever picking a wr that early again. Most experts have Metcalf rated well after 9. This is a deep draft with several good wr prospects from late 1st thru the 4th. DK reminds me too much of David Boston. Go DL or Hock.....

 

What about Dareus over AJ Green? 

 

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